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Jan 26, 2024
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cameron dawson coming up. ed ludlow on intel. and greg valliere on president biden wrapping up his campaign -- ramping up his campaign. six-day winning streak for stocks. cameron dawson. doesn't guarantee better earnings. this did not happen in 2023. gdp was much stronger than expected but eps estimates did not budge. the difference that you see between what stock prices are doing and eps revisions are going. >> there is been an interesting to vergence brewing the last four months is that you've seen multiples expand significantly and yet that entire time you have slowly seen eating away eps estimates for 24 and 25. 2024, doubt about half a percent. -- down about half a percent. you would hope you would start to see a little bit of uplift in eps estimates. i think the reason you're not, the estimates are fairly optimistic. they were present in 10% plus for this year, 11% for 2025. which means the equity market really never believed we were going to have a hard laden. jonathan: let's go over the last year. it is not like it ran aw
cameron dawson coming up. ed ludlow on intel. and greg valliere on president biden wrapping up his campaign -- ramping up his campaign. six-day winning streak for stocks. cameron dawson. doesn't guarantee better earnings. this did not happen in 2023. gdp was much stronger than expected but eps estimates did not budge. the difference that you see between what stock prices are doing and eps revisions are going. >> there is been an interesting to vergence brewing the last four months is that...
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Jan 16, 2024
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. >> going to bring in cameron dawson, from new edge, at the table too. >> we are calling it the strange, indigenous thing this year. there is no historical analog. we haven't seen a similar kind of setup did we have these massive recessions. we have the fed embarking on easing cycles. if the bond market is right, it will be the largest non- recessionary cycle in the last 40 years. this is so very different. this is so parallel. >> i have a total agreement. we have different points of view. the largest, non-recessionary cycle, by the way, the fed is going to move very carefully here. going back to 1975. this is the twin peaks right here. you will see peak number one. the fed cuts rates. inflation comes down. peak number two, they have elevated the tech policies from day one when it comes to this hiking cycle. trying to overlay the 70s and log on what is happening right now. the fed is definitely afraid of peak number two. it hasn't happened yet. i don't know if it is going to happen. you have to be available for it. we are going to look at the finances. it this time, it is different, and
. >> going to bring in cameron dawson, from new edge, at the table too. >> we are calling it the strange, indigenous thing this year. there is no historical analog. we haven't seen a similar kind of setup did we have these massive recessions. we have the fed embarking on easing cycles. if the bond market is right, it will be the largest non- recessionary cycle in the last 40 years. this is so very different. this is so parallel. >> i have a total agreement. we have different...
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Jan 12, 2024
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let's bring in chief investment officer cameron dawson.on, let's go ahead and talk about, fist, i want to get your thoughts on the ppi data at the fed, but also these quarterly numbers. this was a rough start to the fourth quarter earnings reporting season, for sure. >> yeah. so let's start with the fed if and the numbers. i think what's interesting is even though cpi came in a bit hotter than expected, you're actually seeing more cuts priced in to the bond market over the course of 2024. so the bond market seems very confident that the fed is going to not just tweak policy lore, but aggressively ease. we agree with ed yardeni to say that probably that's a bit aggressive because we're not expecting a recession in 2024, at least in the first half, which just means that the economy is likely not going to give the fed reason to cut that much. cheryl: you wrote financials were kicking it all off, but aware of land mines. >> yeah. cheryl: we got a few this morning, didn't we? >> we did. and we do think that there are the things that the leverag
let's bring in chief investment officer cameron dawson.on, let's go ahead and talk about, fist, i want to get your thoughts on the ppi data at the fed, but also these quarterly numbers. this was a rough start to the fourth quarter earnings reporting season, for sure. >> yeah. so let's start with the fed if and the numbers. i think what's interesting is even though cpi came in a bit hotter than expected, you're actually seeing more cuts priced in to the bond market over the course of 2024....
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Jan 3, 2024
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tom: i'm reading cameron dawson's research. jonathan: sure you were afraid cameron dawson joins us now. chief investment officer at new edge. are you sitting on the fence? i'm reading this first line in your book. saying we could have a scenario. cameron: i think there is going to be a scenario where you can easily see people get drawn further into this market. we think positioning is overweight but not as extreme as it was. so you could see some pain get pulled in but the reality is you could see a rationalization that sentiment is very extended. it's how you react to market rallies or corrections is how you will win in 2024. jonathan: let's talk about the word from max this morning. biggest risk, another repricing in rates. cameron: that's the pain trade. it is that everyone thinks inflation is fully vanquished and then get surprised as things like oil prices move higher. rates move higher and then all of those stocks but re-rated up 30 or 40% because now they are not worried about their balance sheet anymore. that becomes an
tom: i'm reading cameron dawson's research. jonathan: sure you were afraid cameron dawson joins us now. chief investment officer at new edge. are you sitting on the fence? i'm reading this first line in your book. saying we could have a scenario. cameron: i think there is going to be a scenario where you can easily see people get drawn further into this market. we think positioning is overweight but not as extreme as it was. so you could see some pain get pulled in but the reality is you could...
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Jan 8, 2024
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. >> let's bring in cameron dawson of newedge wealth. nice to see you again. agree, disagree, what do you think? >> ditto to what aj said on a lot of these points. the key risk to the market would be a re-acceleration of inflation. that is certainly not what is priced into the bond market at this time with six cuts forecast. if you look at the growth, picture it is holding up. there's probably even upside to that 1.3 gdp estimate. the question is, does that upside to gdp translate to better earnings growth? meaning, you already have 11% earnings growth baked in for this year and 2025. if you see better gdp growth, will that result in higher earnings estimates? that remains to be seen. >> do you think it might? >> it didn't in 2023, we saw a big upside to gdp and not to eps estimates. we think for this, year the estimate would have to come from the margin, line companies taking up more cost impossibly that productivity miracle, possibly from tech, possibly from a, i may be too soon to tell on that. we had also look to things like emanate coming back, capital ra
. >> let's bring in cameron dawson of newedge wealth. nice to see you again. agree, disagree, what do you think? >> ditto to what aj said on a lot of these points. the key risk to the market would be a re-acceleration of inflation. that is certainly not what is priced into the bond market at this time with six cuts forecast. if you look at the growth, picture it is holding up. there's probably even upside to that 1.3 gdp estimate. the question is, does that upside to gdp translate...
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Jan 7, 2024
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sheffield wednesday goalkeeper cameron dawson had an outstanding day, saving two penalties in the space of rugby at saracens says he would understand if farrell leaves and wouldn't blame him if he wants to get experience elsewhere, although some fans don't agree. farrell played the full match yesterday for sarries as they lost at leicester — it was his pass that was intercepted, leading to the tigers' first try as they won 19—10 at welford road to improve their chance of making the play—offs. they are seventh, two points behind sarries in sixth. northampton saints are back at the top of the premiership after a stunning comeback victory against exeter chiefs. they recovered from 26—0 down and scored a last—minute try to win 42—36. we're a week away from the start of the australian open with 19—year—old coco gauff showing this morning why she's one of the favourites. the us open champion has come from a set down to beat elina svitolina in the final of the auckland classic, ensuring she keeps hold of the title she first won last year. and at the brisbane international, the former wimbledon
sheffield wednesday goalkeeper cameron dawson had an outstanding day, saving two penalties in the space of rugby at saracens says he would understand if farrell leaves and wouldn't blame him if he wants to get experience elsewhere, although some fans don't agree. farrell played the full match yesterday for sarries as they lost at leicester — it was his pass that was intercepted, leading to the tigers' first try as they won 19—10 at welford road to improve their chance of making the...