for analysis was bring in carol natalie -- let's bring in carol natalie. is a key assumption that opec-plus and cuts are extended. what is your view? carol: if we look at the forecast from the beginning of the year we conceded been changing numbers and becoming more bullish, gradually increasing forecasts. they said the market would remain comfortable and now they are talking about the market being in a deficit, not much happening in terms of being worried. the main assumption is opec-plus will maintain cuts, which have been extended. there is a big if. iraq is one of them, the uae could be one as well. what is your expectation as to whether the group can hold the line? carol: they are not doing a bad job you think about the damage that the departure of angola caused. the previous d -- discontent within the organization, they are getting away with small production without breaking quotas. a rack struggled -- iraq struggled but what matters are the big players like saudi arabia and russia. they hold the whole group together, opec-plus. i'm concerned about d