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Apr 9, 2024
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morgan asset management solutions and joining us to discuss solutions is the commissioner from the cftc, caroline pham. gains ahead of cpi prints. annabelle: there has been a lot of tension coming down to what we get from those u.s. inflation numbers on wednesday. there are a couple of themes developing. you have equity gains extending for another session. traders feeling optimistic though we do continue to see the repricing around the outlook for fed rate cuts. we were at seven at the beginning of the year and went down to three. traders favoring two reductions for 2024 bond yields moving higher. we have gains coming through. the materials sector is the index standing out. yesterday there was the story of the jump in iron ore prices. generally we sell gains for copper, aluminum, zinc. that trend continuing for another session today. if you look at those material stocks moving, bring up some of the movers in focus because it comes down to the chinese names. we are getting better chinese economic data especially around the manufacturing sector. there are some of the big gainers. it reall
morgan asset management solutions and joining us to discuss solutions is the commissioner from the cftc, caroline pham. gains ahead of cpi prints. annabelle: there has been a lot of tension coming down to what we get from those u.s. inflation numbers on wednesday. there are a couple of themes developing. you have equity gains extending for another session. traders feeling optimistic though we do continue to see the repricing around the outlook for fed rate cuts. we were at seven at the...
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Apr 16, 2024
04/24
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cftc data, small caps look under owned. nasdaq and s&p cftc data, those big cap growth parts of the market look really crowded, at, in line with, or above. 15 times p/e and the russell 2000. or something much higher in the rest of the market, this top 10 names we talked about before. we agreed, you have all these great things going for small caps, and small caps should benefit if economic tilman's are. if gdp forecasts keep going up, that is a powerful tailwind for small caps. but those are going smack dab into some headwinds right now with the inflation and interest rate story. i think it is interesting that so far, small caps are not really breaking the low from november 2023 relative to the s&p 500. we will see if i am right about that in couple days. so far, the small caps are fighting back, and i think it is because of some of those good things they have going for them. katie: definitely a space to watch with a lot of crosscurrents but also tailwinds. have about a minute left with you and we have not talked about earni
cftc data, small caps look under owned. nasdaq and s&p cftc data, those big cap growth parts of the market look really crowded, at, in line with, or above. 15 times p/e and the russell 2000. or something much higher in the rest of the market, this top 10 names we talked about before. we agreed, you have all these great things going for small caps, and small caps should benefit if economic tilman's are. if gdp forecasts keep going up, that is a powerful tailwind for small caps. but those are...
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Apr 10, 2024
04/24
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haslinda: the cftc says firms that use borrowed money to amplify returns increase short returns in the futures market for the first time in two months. we saw record size trade in short-term interest rate futures which appear consistent. let's bring in garfield reynolds , what prompted that record futures that? >> traders are seeing the potential for a serious shift. we've had this drawback from three rate cuts priced in which came after six rate cuts price for the year earlier on. now the question is to go to two or three, do end up with one? about the only thing that is certain is there is a lot of money to be made and to be loss on this. that record trade could've been somebody taking out a bet that the cpi is not going to come in strong enough to justify a reduction in the number of rate cut bids, or it could have been somebody who has a big short position on treasuries and they are using the fed futures block trade as a hedge in case you are squeezed out of those bearish positions by a slightly modest cpi report. haslinda: interesting to note as well, saying we could potentially s
haslinda: the cftc says firms that use borrowed money to amplify returns increase short returns in the futures market for the first time in two months. we saw record size trade in short-term interest rate futures which appear consistent. let's bring in garfield reynolds , what prompted that record futures that? >> traders are seeing the potential for a serious shift. we've had this drawback from three rate cuts priced in which came after six rate cuts price for the year earlier on. now...
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Apr 17, 2024
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legislation that would perhaps delineate for example what the fcc would have control over versus the cftc proven more difficult to do on capitol hill. we have seen an effort get through the financial services and agricultural committees in the house. it would delineate the regulatory land, if you will, the territory for those two different agencies. that has not moved forward further. in the meantime you probably know well based on your conversations at bloomberg technology, the industry exceeds enforcement and it will stay that way until congress moves forward sick tangibly -- substantially. caroline: thank you. the sec blocked third-party messaging apps and texts from employees work mobile phones. it includes what's up and i message. the sec says this will lower risk their systems can be compromised and enhance record-keeping. ed: the ceo of atos, a company struggling with temping shares and a wall of debt is confident french i.t. company will be saved. the ceo spoke in an exclusive interview with bloomberg in paris. >> we are actually working with our creditors, both our banks and bond
legislation that would perhaps delineate for example what the fcc would have control over versus the cftc proven more difficult to do on capitol hill. we have seen an effort get through the financial services and agricultural committees in the house. it would delineate the regulatory land, if you will, the territory for those two different agencies. that has not moved forward further. in the meantime you probably know well based on your conversations at bloomberg technology, the industry...
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Apr 29, 2024
04/24
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yen, more specifically, rebounding after dropping to its lowest level in 34 years, positioning from cftcng asset managers are the most short in japanese yen on record. we are somewhere halfway through the earnings season. bloomberg intelligence data shows 81% of the s&p 500 companies outperformed in the earnings. however, the stock reaction is so muted. this chart shows the average one-day outperformance of a stock versus the s&p 500. this is the most muted reaction since 2020. it is kind of a quiet day when it comes to earnings announcements, but we are watching a few stock movers. tesla is up by almost 10%. they were the winners of tentative approval for their driving system in china. we saw sofi, down by 9%, because the second quarter guidance fell short of estimates. we also watched what hedge funds are doing. last week was an interesting week for them buying and selling. we saw that hedge funds kept buying u.s. stocks for a second straight week at the largest and fastest pace in five months. tech stocks, that is where we saw the biggest activity. they are now bought at the highest a
yen, more specifically, rebounding after dropping to its lowest level in 34 years, positioning from cftcng asset managers are the most short in japanese yen on record. we are somewhere halfway through the earnings season. bloomberg intelligence data shows 81% of the s&p 500 companies outperformed in the earnings. however, the stock reaction is so muted. this chart shows the average one-day outperformance of a stock versus the s&p 500. this is the most muted reaction since 2020. it is...
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Apr 9, 2024
04/24
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there's a lot of yen bears out there, depending on which slices of the cftc data that you look at. the strongest bets against the yen on record. and those bets, some of those will be looking tired. if people are sitting on gains, they are potentially looking to take profits. they are all wary of, if you get a soft cpi print, that brings yields down. began strengthens, you might be forced out. if there's a pot that takes it above the 152, you are threatened with getting squeezed out. there will be a lot of trigger-happy yen bears willing to pull out rapidly so that they don't end up getting crushed in a squeeze if they all rush for the exits at the same time. haidi: garfield reynolds there ahead of a lot of implications coming from the u.s. cpi print. you can get around up the stories you need to know in today's edition of daybreak. you can customize your settings so you only get the news on the industries and assets that you care about. defense issues expecting to top the agenda during president biden's meeting with the japanese prime minister. we discussed those implications with
there's a lot of yen bears out there, depending on which slices of the cftc data that you look at. the strongest bets against the yen on record. and those bets, some of those will be looking tired. if people are sitting on gains, they are potentially looking to take profits. they are all wary of, if you get a soft cpi print, that brings yields down. began strengthens, you might be forced out. if there's a pot that takes it above the 152, you are threatened with getting squeezed out. there will...
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Apr 24, 2024
04/24
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people have gotten excited by the cftc short positioning. it's only a small subset of the market. for the trend. it can give momentum if it really rebounds along way. it needs a separate catalyst. second of all, there's no reason for the mof to come in at the moment. sure, yen is at a multi-decade low against the dollar. the pace of the decline is not drastic and it's in line with fundamentals. until u.s. yields start turning around, i don't see intervention really working. i think the positioning is not too stressed. the discretionary traders have been -- reluctant to get short on the yen. i think that even if we do get intervention which could be more powerful, that will be seen as a chance to resort the yen. traders are standing aside at the moment. overall the story is, japan offers negative real yields. not up to the attractive growth story. it is suffering from commodities. this is not a currency with any major fundamentals behind it. it is cheap but cheap things can keep on getting cheaper if there's no reason for them to rally. paul: there's a lot of factors against them.
people have gotten excited by the cftc short positioning. it's only a small subset of the market. for the trend. it can give momentum if it really rebounds along way. it needs a separate catalyst. second of all, there's no reason for the mof to come in at the moment. sure, yen is at a multi-decade low against the dollar. the pace of the decline is not drastic and it's in line with fundamentals. until u.s. yields start turning around, i don't see intervention really working. i think the...
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Apr 1, 2024
04/24
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the positioning, we look at small traders through the cftc, this is not being driven by the retail crowd. some people would look at that as being a contrarian indication. that historically has held up statistically, so these are big money buyers pushing this higher, and i think that's got some duration. the physical looks a lot better than the equities. much more a fan of the physical gold market than we are the underlying stocks in gold. but copper, really, to us, is the more interesting play here, because we're seeing the breakout in those names. i think there's kind of a global element to this of an improving economy, maybe not so hot that it's detracting from some of these other areas that people can make money, but certainly shows that this whole concern, which i think has been modify pretty aggressively about recession, really is back of the back burner. >> what about energy? leave us with a good thought here, because it's ripped. obviously, best performer in march by a lot. >> it's a hard one. momentum is good with energy. that's okay. but the trends on a relative basis still aren
the positioning, we look at small traders through the cftc, this is not being driven by the retail crowd. some people would look at that as being a contrarian indication. that historically has held up statistically, so these are big money buyers pushing this higher, and i think that's got some duration. the physical looks a lot better than the equities. much more a fan of the physical gold market than we are the underlying stocks in gold. but copper, really, to us, is the more interesting play...
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Apr 1, 2024
04/24
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we look at it at the cftc data, back to early january 2018 highs. those stats make it very uncomfortable. aaii says we have a little room to go before things get silly. jonathan: this high-yield credit make you uncomfortable? you can basically say it is reflecting strength or reflecting maybe investors taking things too far. >> i would go toward the strength category. i'm not an expert on that. we do talk to our crew at the rbc desk and they tell me the same things i see on small-cap balance sheet data, which is things are not as bad as they have been in past cycles. there are some sector differences as well. i tend to lean more toward it is a sign of strength argument. jonathan: q2. lori calvasina is going to stick with this. let's get an update on stories elsewhere. here is your bloomberg brief. >> salvage specialists are starting the daunting task of clearing debris from the destroyed francis scott key bridge in baltimore. ports are modifying their operations to absorb. the fallout is expected to be largely contained as neighboring his lips with
we look at it at the cftc data, back to early january 2018 highs. those stats make it very uncomfortable. aaii says we have a little room to go before things get silly. jonathan: this high-yield credit make you uncomfortable? you can basically say it is reflecting strength or reflecting maybe investors taking things too far. >> i would go toward the strength category. i'm not an expert on that. we do talk to our crew at the rbc desk and they tell me the same things i see on small-cap...
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Apr 29, 2024
04/24
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if you look at cftc data on positioning, nasdaq futures, s&p futures, we haven't even begun the correctionwe've done some damage but we still got probably a couple more weeks of damage to do. annmarie: so if you look at the peter cheer note he talks about how these big companies are trading like little companies. if there's not a pullback right now, how do you see this rotation? >> i think the financials have come from so far reasonably well. i personally read a lot of industrials and materials. i'm not really seeing anything demand problems. i think it is not so much a particular sector, it is looking for industries, for companies within the value cyclical cohort of the market. second the energy, materials, industrials. jonathan: latest note dropping from them, the stock to outperform. apple has -- amid a psycho and fears they are structurally impaired. i'm going to ask you specifically about apple and maybe some of the forces associated with that moment. particularly china, the strength of the u.s. dollar a factor as well. and many times of those two things come up so far? >> i'm noticin
if you look at cftc data on positioning, nasdaq futures, s&p futures, we haven't even begun the correctionwe've done some damage but we still got probably a couple more weeks of damage to do. annmarie: so if you look at the peter cheer note he talks about how these big companies are trading like little companies. if there's not a pullback right now, how do you see this rotation? >> i think the financials have come from so far reasonably well. i personally read a lot of industrials and...