there private consumer testing agencies. there's the consumers research. there's consumers union. you speak about a widespread demand for, more protection. those agencies have those organizations. they have all publications on cars. what they do is they test brakes and steering. they never crash, but the most important thing to know about a car when you buy it is if the car crashes, you going to be killed unnecessarily. you can't get that information. but the reason they test it's too expensive. that's because why is it too expensive for them? because a number of consumers who are willing to buy their service and take it is very, very small. that is not why. the reason is because it's enormously expensive, of course. but if they had a large enough number of customers, if there were enough customers. enough consumers. yes. but that what's going to make situation which is ridiculous it's not a chicken and egg situation. who believes that technological information is important for consumers to have, which is basis and the thesis of your argument surely that you would say that one of

goods industry bring our greater focus on the consumer, understanding the consumer.here you get success is designer vision, customer needs come together, and that is where things get explosive. so great understanding of the consumer, more data, more experienced, leveraging data and decision-making. again, there is an element of intuition that needs to be protected, but that can be supplemented by data. francine: what is the ideal algorithm for the story? patrice: it is confidential, i cannot tell you. [laughter] francine: you would have to kill me. patrice: i would not do that. but we do look at a number of metrics, whether that is obviously consumer profile, whether that is competitive environment, or the types of products being sold in the area. the last thing i would point to is operational. these are complex businesses where we develop a lot of sku's every year. complex supply chains, and what you learn in the consumer goods industry is how to run pretty rigorous and disciplined supply chains and just general operations. and a lot of these luxury companies now ar

consumer? sarah: the u.s. a pretty good shape when you look at homeowners who have lost their mortgage rates but even those consumers with credit card debt and debt services starts to creep out. but the solid leverage picture is not the big picture. is the overall pace of income growth moving forward. sonali: do you worry the pace of inflation is going to outpace wage growth? sarah: i think we will see positive real earnings growth but in terms of the rate of change of real income. last year, we saw inflation including energy and food. that declined by three percentage points which helps lift real income growth. this year we will see a moderate . the jobs market is still rather tight and productivity enhancements that allows business to raise wages. sonali: where do you expect to see it in the next six months or so? given the recalibration of interest rates. sarah: what is happening in the jobs market? we will see some cracks in the job market before we saw revisions. given that is where most consumers earn th

what we are seeing — passed on to consumers. what we are seeing is _ passed on to consumers.t we are seeing is that _ passed on to consumers. what we are seeing is that a _ passed on to consumers. what we are seeing is that a lot _ passed on to consumers. what we are seeing is that a lot of- passed on to consumers. what we are seeing is that a lot of the - are seeing is that a lot of the cost increase that was seen due to the diversions of container ships around the cape of good hope are likely going to be temporarily so these are shipping prices spiked getting in mid december the attacks on shipping occurred, the prices are significantly elevated right now, even to this day but what happened is that the container shipping industry ordered many ships during covid and there was a sharp increase in vessel quartering during that time. so even though the red sea crisis from a container shipping perspective essentially took 6—7% of global capacity of the market, beginning injanuary, late december mid january, that capacity will gradually be replaced as we move through this year an

and heavy consumers. according to the subsidy targeting law , this amount was supposed to be calculated as a non-subsidy for them until the end of the fifth plan, but this law is still being implemented correctly. we are on the verge of implementing the second development plan. please tell me that even though the government has followed up on this issue several times , why is it not being implemented and these heavy consumers are not paying their extra money and are benefiting from subsidized cubic meters? please let me know how much it is. well, i will answer your question first i would like to offer you the approximate price according to the cost analysis and from the time of production to consumption. the price of gas is between 9 and 13 thousand tomans, which is close to the price per cubic meter per cubic meter . if the account complies with this law , 6 thousand tomans will be calculated as you saw in the pictures. your order is correct. until the fifth program , this should be realized. well, until

below are an consumer has been really challenged -- the lower end consumer has been really challengedat lower to middle range consumer has been really pressured by inflation. they have been seeing that the macy's stores. i applaud them for trying to shift the mix towards more of the bloomingdale's, the higher end and towards beauty products with the blue mercury line. that makes a lot of sense to us. we prefer some other ways to really invest in where the consumer is going and what they have been struggling with. we can talk about those if you like. macy's seems to make a good move towards where the consumer is. katie: let's talk about where you see the consumer going. is it luxury or somewhere else? joanne: it is not a homogenous group of people. you have the lower end to midrange struggling with inflation and pressures on budgets. they are becoming more practical and how they spend their money. shopping at places like t.j. maxx. that is one of our positions . or target, despite some other cultural problems is in the right part of the market for the consumer that is trying to save mo

goods industry bring our greater focus on the consumer, understanding the consumer.here you get success is designer vision, customer needs come together, and that is where things get explosive. so great understanding of the consumer, more data, more experienced, leveraging data and decision-making. again, there is an element of intuition that needs to be protected, but that can be supplemented by data. francine: what is the ideal algorithm for the story? patrice: it is confidential, i cannot tell you. [laughter] francine: you would have to kill me. patrice: i would not do that. but we do look a number of metrics, whether that is obviously consumer profile, whether that is competitive environment, or the types of products being sold in the area. the last thing i would point to is operational. these are complex businesses where we develop a lot of sku's every year. complex supply chains, and what you learn in the consumer goods industry is how to run pretty rigorous and disciplined supply chains and just general operations. and a lot of these luxury companies now are $

consumers are using more. last year, the same number of subscribers who are in different cities and villages in different climates and in cities in the north of the city and south of the city . the guide is also to see what the consumption is more than the defined pattern. unfortunately, more than 80% of the consumption is non-conventional, that is, the consumption was for the production of commercial products at home, sometimes dairy was produced or cooking was done . life or even baking or use unauthorized uses for drying the houses that were under construction or taking non-virtual constructions for greenhouses or animal husbandry, these were unauthorized uses, but some of them were also used in the open space . some kind of definition of luxury might be used for outdoor swimming pools. well, mr. rahmani, now the people's demand and the demand of the law is the same to deal with them and that those who are high spenders should pay the expenses from their own pockets, why should they use the subsidies of oth

consumer, the worldwide consumer. so, we saw the catch-up in the back half of 2023.ary environment is much more benign than it has been. so, we don't see the need for continued increases in price. we see the consumer getting used to these new price points. so, that's why we forecast for 2024, a much more benign environment for the consumer. >> you're allowing the consumer to catch up to the price or does it change pricing strategy to the downside? >> no. it's really seen consumer catch-up. we're getting back to promotional activities we were at more pre-covid area. you'll see more quality displays, more features, more prom promotions, but not anything crazy. more back towards 2019 levels. i think that's good for the consumer. we want to be affordable. our number one objective is to be affordable to the consumer, to provide those moments of pleasure through our snacks and so, you know, we know that the consumer's under pressure and we know that affordability is very, very important. that's price points, that's pack sizes, that's promotional activity, keeping the consu

consumer.xpedia following the most since 2020 -- expedia following the most since 2020 after it came short of expectations. announced a change with ceo peter kern stepping aside. with more on expedia, we are joined by emily graffeo. tell us about what is to come. >> it is hard to tell if it is an individual story for expedia, investors not really liking the surprise shakeup in the upper management. or this is a story we can connect to the broader macroenvironment of these travel companies, consumer discretionary companies pulling back. i was looking at the broader s&p 500. the best sectors performing year to date. in 2023, the cruise liners, the travel companies where the best performance. you look at it now, the consumer discretionary sector is the seventh best performer. it is lagging behind. now we see a travel company, expedia falling. that is the question, is it signaling investors are sniffing out economic weakness in the market and a consumer that is starting to pull back from spending o

now, it consumes 13 liters.ers don't complain about this issue, but the issue is that we have hybrid cars in the world now, it is being said that in some countries, we are now saying a deadline, for example , to consider a border for it, yes, a threshold for it to be considered from here on, at all, a car with fossils are not allowed to come, we are still producing them, which means we still have this price increase and all these things. we should be worried about the increase in prices and don't touch the fuel, and this is for the long term. yes, your statement is correct , but in the short term , what should we think now ? supervision or in any case implementation, even the private sector, which now you actually have elites, we cannot impose the cost of inefficiency in governance, tell the people, sir, because , for example, balashahriya is consuming cheap chicken, so i will come and make the chicken more expensive. that uptown should not eat cheap chicken, not your mistake, if it is really the system if you h

that ras -- consumers health wonderful guess what inflation rate is?y that, so consumer is peddling harder to get no owhere basically spending 3% more to get same amount of goods last year people go great sales up only reason looked could so good in december consumers department does a thing seasonally adjust sales, a month like december with small month like january most favorable adjustment ever made in history last month, seriously, they've been doing this data goes back being 22 years most favorable adjustment ever for december, and november saw looked terrible almost the same you with a takings using out of it the factor in january wasn't so accountable favorable what we have a consumer plodding along 3% growth basically same as inflation, and retailers can play in that game providing necessities at a good value, are going to do great, you know walmart, costco, tjmaxx great value doing great, others continue to struggling. maria: look, you say that we're looking at these government adjustments, i have a feeling we are going to see a lot of governm

it is not the case that the poor , the middle-aged consume more, and the rich consume more.want to say that we want to give a long-term plan . i agree with your opinion. it means that we must make structural reforms. to create transparency , we must go and monitor these discussions right before regarding the problem, there is no course, mr. he is an engineer of the logistics system and store endings. or discussions like this, well , it has been raised for 20 years, but the infrastructure has not yet been established . this is the same issue. how long should we pay this subsidy and continue to wait for this transparency system to be established? i think this is what i mentioned in the first article. what i did is that we can even get a part of this, that is, right now, the government should say, sir , that the subsidy should be distributed in any way that is easier to access and pay, and reach the consumers. considering a border for it, yes, a threshold for it considering that from now on, fossil-fueled vehicles will not be allowed to come , we are still producing them, i mea

consumer. if the ftc is successful in blocking this merger would be hurting consumers and helping strengthen multichannel retailers such as walmart, amazon, costco. >> the very company the ftc is saying they want to try and rain in. this is just no surprise. add kroger and albertsons to a list of companies and potential tieups the ftc is gone after. what we seen as a more robust engagement from this ftc and doj when it comes down to cracking down on antitrust. bloomberg intelligence says it's a coin toss. 50% whether or not this goes through. >> if we cannot make this happen and make jetblue spirit happen how on earth will we make capital one discover happen anytime soon. lisa: everyone's watching to see if this will be allowed. two grocery stores that might go out of business versus the walmarts and amazons and if they are citing certain things like being able to negotiate better with labor unions and things of that nature we are talking about a game changer for the m and a space. they are alr

and working-class consumer. the higher-income consumer is not impacted? >> we have not seen as much on the previous weeks. the luxury sector has been performing differentlybecause they have different strategies going forward. some luxury companies are suffering. that customer is still spending. also entertainment. >> you say the retailer we need to watch is tjx. they have more ability to adjust inventory. when we get the result from tjx, what do we look for here with the consumers? >> we could see how home is doing. we started seeing green shoots with soft home. it is tough with housing means we could see a spend with small items to decorate. not the big tickets. we will see that with home items this quarter. you can see spending more with beauty. tjx can flex. they expand the beauty category with skin care. >> i want to ask about something else. in the retail world, you call it hard lines. we had the whirlpool ceo on yesterday on cnbc. he talked about housing impacting consumer spending. take a listen. >> we ar

it's all consumer. the most valuable companies in the world are consumer companies.acebook, snap. going forward, we think that will continue to be the case, given this generational tech shift with ai. caroline: let's get specific. tesla and snap have faced headwinds to share prices, ultimately in consumer demand headwinds stymieing growth. notable companies but far-fetch has had a terrible time. e-commerce may be a hard place to be. where's the place to be when you want exposure to a consumer that is still there buying stuff? jett: great point. consumer companies that have historically relied on paid customer acquisition are facing headwinds. we are excited about the opportunity to partner with companies that have real distribution advantages. what i mean is companies that leverage benefits of community, content, celebrity or creators. we are seeing more companies come up in the world of tiktok, teemu and others that leverage those distribution advantages beyond solely paid acquisition. caroline: anticipating more celebrity beauty brands? jett: certainly there will b

consumer?alked about how in one of the consumer data we are getting, the economic weaker data came after the earnings report. romaine: it was an interesting, because he spent time talking about how they wanted to lean more into luxury. i asked him, are you doing it at a time when the economy is weakening and that consumer may not be the ballast happened in the past? he acknowledged a lot of shoppers are feeling the pain right now, and spending less, but he thinks they can find a decent mix between the high-end consumer that bloomingdale's would attract, the middle market consumer a macy's would attract, and they can exploit that. sonali: when you think another challenge he has in front of him, is there a whole revamp of the business is its weeks at the edges? romaine: it is hard to know. i reached out to our cows and they said they are still trying to digest the earnings report and the new plan before they comment but when you consider what they were rumored to have been considering in terms of

consumer is the low income consumers. $45,000 an, that consumer has pressure. german industry standpoint, we actually saw that cohort decrease and the most recent quarter, particular, i think, as eating at home has become more affordable. there's been much less pricing that's been taken more recently on packaged food. so you're seeing that eating at home it's becoming more affordable, and quote. tough for the fast food out value, proposition is good for lower priced supermarkets. dollar tree talks about it all the time. there's another -- declining economy. but their customers -- dollar tree said that lower income shoppers are really hurting, and i'm going to their stories to find bargains, but on a conference call, the ceo said, and this one blew me away, in the last 12 months we've added 4.3 million new customers ideology. 12.3 million more customers that -- most of these new customers have household incomes of $125,000. and quote. wow. $125, 000, and going to dollar tree. again, you've got to consumers here. you've got the strap, even goes up to 1:25, and th

>> consumer reports is known for testing consumer products obviously, but more and more, those products are connected to the internet. and therefore there's a possibility for them to be hacked or otherwise take advantage of consumers. so therefore, we now test privacy and security as products. >> okay. so as part of the testing, what did you do and what did you find. and so we test specifically we're looking for any privacy and security concerns. >> um, mainly exposure of sensitive information, which is what we found in these particular video doorbells. there was a lot of sensitive information exposed. uh, but one of the larger concerns we found was, uh, unauthorized and unauthenticated access, uh, remote access to a server that hosts still images from the video doorbells, which, you know, could allow a malicious actor to kind of, you know, have unfettered access and intimate knowledge to what's going on at your front door. >> so how did they get in there? >> well, there's a couple of ways we were able to gain access through just looking through the network that the doorbells were conne

consumer bank. china is ramping up its support for troubled property sector with its biggest cut ever to a key mortgage reference rate. they announced lenders will slash their five year loan prime rate to 3.95%. it's their first cut since june as policymakers try to relieve the poverty crisis. jonathan: president biden turning up pressure on house republicans to pass a for ukraine. >> they're making a big mistake. walking away from the threat of russia, the way they are walking away from their obligation. jonathan: that conversation up next. good morning. ♪ fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. hot dogs! fresh, warm hot dogs! before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objective

i thought it was interesting that right now you are favoring consumer discretionary over consumer stapleswalk me through the logic. cameron: it is one of our favorite charts, which is the equal rate discretionary versus staples. it is important because it tends to relate really well to up -- correlate really well to upside surprises in -- discretionary continues to outperform staples, which means that this equity market is not concerned about the consumer. if you start seeing staples outperform, that will be an important site that the consumer is starting to weaken any material way. to your point about this point in the economic cycle, that would be the signal that maybe the summer is seeing greater challenges and we could be going to a more discretionary environment. but the equity is saying do not be concerned about a consumer that recession. katie: is the relationship -- discretionary in relationship to staples. it -- this is like a sector where it is hard to get people excited. what do you see there? what opportunities are in health care? cameron: we like the gop one space because we

consumers was bought and consumers are in good shape. the foreign ministry, whether it is drug -- the farm industry, whether it is drugs or nasal spray, the consumer is much less concerned about inflation then getting the drug in an efficient way. sonali: are you seeing areas where the consumer is not willing to spend? stephan: there are areas with normal products like personal care, home care, and in the farmer market there is a lot of growth energy. the other area that is quite booming is travel retail. we serve a high-end dragon's maker and the travel season is gearing up. airlines are putting flights on. in the markets we serve we see good momentum. sonali: you were talking about the health care mistry come this idea of injectables medications. the obesity drug is fueling returns in the market as well as consumers spending on products. by novo nordisk and others. -- created by novo nordisk and others. how is that impacting you? stephan: we are partnering with the leading brands. plunger, ways to get -- protect the drug and get the dr

consumers, they have hi . her there. consumers, they have higher saving _ there.ave higher saving rates _ there. consumers, they have higher saving rates for - there. consumers, they have higher saving rates for those | higher saving rates for those who save, but paid more in interest for mortgages, car loans and the like, with the benefit from lower rates as well? ,, ., , well? the us economy, looking at the demographics, _ well? the us economy, looking at the demographics, there - well? the us economy, looking at the demographics, there are | at the demographics, there are savers but it really is a debt because that would bite a bit more, we have been looking at things like credit cards and what is charge there, and there are companies —— customers funds are heirs are paying late, we are seeing credit card arrears have rarely moved, barely back to pre—pandemic levels and nothing like previous recessions, so although we see a bit of increase in slowing of payments increase in slowing of payments in some of those interest rate sensitive parts of the economy, it is

are more _ consumers and it may mean they are more careful— consumers and it may mean they are morensumers and it may mean they are more careful around their spending. i more careful around their spending. so there _ more careful around their spending. so there is — more careful around their spending. so there is that _ more careful around their spending. so there is that impact _ more careful around their spending. so there is that impact as _ more careful around their spending. so there is that impact as well. - more careful around their spending. so there is that impact as well. so i so there is that impact as well. so ithink— so there is that impact as well. so i think it _ so there is that impact as well. so i think it is — so there is that impact as well. so i think it is important _ so there is that impact as well. so i think it is important not - so there is that impact as well. so i think it is important not to- so there is that impact as well. so i think it is important not to see i i think it is important not to see the figure — i think it is important not to see the figu

consumer, are feeling differently than they are acting. folks that are having a hard time paying their bills. you can see that in the credit card industry building up. delinquencies have increased. none of that is true for us. we posted another quarter of flat year on year delinquencies. those are all measures of our excellent credit math. affirm consumer, the ones we lend to, are doing fine. without, i might add, late fees or gimmicks. the industry is starting to show fines of cracking, and folks are maybe overextending. i think that is probably what is playing on consumers' minds. that said, the holiday quarter was good for us. saw engagement from regional buyers that went to our online partners and bought tickets, all the way to cardholders that use the card for everything from data spends to give back. so, our ability to help folks borrow, and most important thing, because we don't charge late fees, because we don't compound interest, our incentives are profoundly aligned. if they cannot play us -- pay us back on schedule we will make

what are consumers telling you?umers are telling us they're very much concerned about the job market. they got spooked with the fact they saw layoffs in the tech industry. we start seeing unemployment number continues to deteriorate, that is when consumers put their hands in their pockets to hold back on spending. already our estimates for the first quarter are looking lower than the holiday season. earnings are expected to go down from 40% to 14% for the -- charles: that's a lot. that's a lot. >> that is a big drop yes. charles: we broke it out. jobs index, jobs declining here. >> yes. charles: expectations though have gone up. how do you explain that? because we saw that in some of these sentiment reads also, other sentiment reads. >> consumers are hopeful because of the elections maybe things will turn around and that things will look up but overall that job index number has been positive for so long. charles: right. >> that is very worrisome. that is a big red flag. charles: economists keep coming on, don't worr

its participants were representatives of organizations and enterprises included in the consumer systemerations throughout the country on the agenda are issues of finance and stable operation of the structure to problematic issues that hinder the development of consumer societies, but first a new chairman of the board was elected, inesa koratkevich will head the structure, she will have to restore order in the organization, taking into account the tasks set today. belka apsoyuz actively works in trade and public catering, with a special emphasis on rural areas, the system consumer cooperation from the budget it turns out. support the village, it is in serving the residents of villages and small towns that the social role of consumer cooperation lies, including by the quality of your work, people evaluate the entire vertical of power, that is, you are the face of this power, and this popular assessment should only be positive, and some then the assessment today, the chairman of the district executive committees, seems to have forgotten that they are responsible for the secure territory,

consumer. always does.ing the tea leaves from the consumer earnings and look at delinquency rates. it's all stronger than expected, certainly where we expected it to be this year and last year. >> yes. >> do you have confidence it can continue, given some of the headwinds we talk about and the impact of a tightening rate environment? >> well, i think the economy is slowing. now much more modestly than people had thought, but it is slowing. there will be a time when they can do that, but the consumer i think is still going to be a pretty strong booster of the economy over the next six months at least. now, there can always be surprises. if the banking industry becomes more real and starts to cause problems, then that may cause the fed to change its mind. if there is a shock to the economy coming from wherever that could change its mind. as it stands right now given the modest slowing in the economy which some ways is very beneficial, then they can be i think cautious and they want to see that inflation numbe

equal weight consumer discretionary, versus equal weight consumer staples.ary taking off like a rocket. for you this is a good proxy for the consumer? >> it is really important to watch. when discretionary is outperforming staples, it i effective saying the equity market says the consumer has money to spend. when discretionary outperforms staples, this line goes up, you typically see estimates for consumer spending growth also go up. when you're like 2022, discretionary underperformed staples estimates were slashed. charles: right. >> there was a sign of a bit of a slower growth environment. charles: so we're in that position now. juxtaposing that we have something else happening, you acknowledge this as well, delinquencies obviously are turning up. consumer loans, credit cards, auto loans. is there a magic number, cameron, you start to say no way you can have 10% delinquencies and a strong consumer, something like that? >> what is very bizarre, you're seeing an uplift in delinquencies, yet the labor market is still tight on the surface. usually dell lindsey

we have heard consumers pulling back we also saw a trend up again in this fall of 2023, consumers aresavings rate going down month-over-month we get that data we covered on thispro credit cards we have had commentary now from bank of america this week commentary jpmorgan told us the consumer is stressed evidence this is getting worse i don't know that we're having a recession this year not sure that technical recession is on table persistent is election year but, at the same time, i do think that earnings an forecast to john's point are going to be pretty raw. >> your take e.j. what is most important to you when you look ahead, to the impact on the growth story of the u.s. economy? >> maria, i think a key there is investment, those numbers have done very, very poorly over the last several years, they have essentially he lebeen glat you look at private fixed investment a key delivery the driver of long term economic growth unfortunately we're seeing new phenomena of so-called doom spending so many young people even middle will aged to disheartened with economic prospects with financial

the consumer is still in a strong place but we don't see any consumer led recession.oft landing is still on the cards but excepting lower inflation while at the same time a solid labor market is what the fed wants to see. katie: so good news for the fed when it comes to some of these corporate earnings but the new thick about the inflation data we got last week. i was in miami at a conference and even still, i saw those higher inflation numbers. now you have some people on wall street saying that the next move, maybe it is not a cut but a hike. how are you thinking about how the fed takes this together? drew: one month's data does not make a trend. one swallow does not make a spring. however, this is one month's data. january historically has had some quirks in the data, given a lot of contract negotiations happen in january. what i will say is we have to remember the trend over the last six months. pce for this month will be released at the end of february and is -- and is expected to be stronger, we still have to look at the six month annualized. to the extent that

they involve a certain group of consumers. this is the same group that receives subsidies or benefits from indirect subsidies. when you go to the beginning of the chain, the people who are involved in this they are producing and they benefit again because if you destroy the chain , you will destroy the chain from the beginning to the end and there will be no support . and this subsidy will lose its effect , and regarding the sources of subsidy, we must also pay attention to where the sources of subsidy have come from , from private incomes, for example, from the sale of oil, which is impala, or from the increase in the price of goods. it is assigned to basic goods, for example, if the name is transferred from the beginning of the chain to the end of the chain, more resources are needed and the production price will rise. it will be destroyed again, but it will not reach the target anymore if there is a wealth from the point of view, if we want this wealth to be explained again, this is the place of discussion as to what kind o

consumers ability to overspend.onali: you have consumers that event borrowing at -- on their credit cards a record pace. credit card debt has swelled well past $1 trillion in the united states. at what point is that start to break? >> the case that could be made would be the fact that a lot of what started to eat into retail sales over the last month is been the fact that consumers continue to face higher inflation numbers. if there is a catalyst that investors can look for that might spur spending, it would be the fact that inflation figures have been coming down. it's not in the straight-line, but they should continue to pull back. if that's the case, the consumer probably should feel more comfortable and it should raise consumer confidence. sonali: what is your base case and emily rate cuts we actually get and what impact will that have a market? >> i think it's probably healthy for the market is the fact that when the fed pivoted last year and said we will cut rates, they suggested they might cut rates three tim

consumer. >> the consumer has been trading down. is all bad for the consumer. i think the consumer's choice for is walmart said and is able to spend where needed. >> that conversation around the corner. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ (captivating music) ♪ (♪♪) the first law of thermodynamics states that energy cannot be created or destroyed. (♪♪) but it can be passed on to the next generation. (♪♪) jonathan: equities on the s&p 500, a slight pullback -- negative. nvidia is just around the corner. the number one performing equity on the s&p 500. yields are lower by a couple of basis points on the 10 year. the euro slightly weaker. under surveillance this morning the state of the u.s. consumer. >> the consumer has been trading down. it does not mean it is all bad i do think the consumer is choice for and has been able to spend. 2024 is looking to be the year of normalization. the year starting off probably get a start selling soft and hopefully pick up a little bit as it progresses. jonathan: earnings reports from the retail giants walmart an

consumer and the international consumer.you weigh the results we've gotten so far and where the fed is in their tightening and potential cutting cycle, how does the consumer stand up now. aoifinn: obviously the unilever results are that the consumer is very resilient. they are spending money on name brands which again is a notable thing because they would been trading down perhaps to generics are lower-cost substitutes. the fact that they are seeing robust growth there is a solid sign they're following through into demand. we are discussion around lodging companies and the durability of that travel spending but we are seeing. i'm confident the consumer as long as the employment picture stays strong and particularly with interest rates heading down at least into the second half of this year whenever that happens, mortgage rates start to come down if there's a little bit more wiggle room in that respect i think we will see an enduring consumer. katie: before i let you go, put together what we've been talking about when it come

we saw similar reaction from consumers.e have yet to see if the consumer can keep up with price increases. sonali: thank you for your time and for keeping a close eye on the markets. coming up, barrett gold beat fourth-quarter estimates. we speak to the company's ceo next. this is bloomberg. ♪ - super excited to open up my diploma from southern new hampshire university. ♪ ♪ - i'm nervous, i'm excited. ♪ ♪ - [man] okay, let's see it. let's see it. - oh my gosh. - jesus suarez, i did it and it's here. (group cheers) ♪ ♪ - [narrator] next term starts soon. visit snhu.edu. visit snhu.edu. sonali: bold on a decline after a rally that hit levels we have not seen since the pandemic. that rally is now fading. prospect of rate cuts from the fed unlikely. we are joined by gold president and ceo. the company announced a buyback for investors. mark, thank you for joining us. where do prices go from here? how much can they come off of the highest we have seen in december? how do you talk to investors? mark: it is an interesting time. i

.— to consumers. are seeinu to consumers. what we are seeing is — to consumers. what we are seeing is that _ to consumers. what we are seeing is that a _ to consumers. what we are seeing is that a lot - to consumers. what we are seeing is that a lot of - to consumers. what we are seeing is that a lot of the i seeing is that a lot of the cost increase that we see due to the diversions of container ships around the cape of good hope are likely going to be temporary so we saw shipping prices spike beginning in mid december when the attacks on shipping occurred and the prices are significantly elevated right now. leading to this day but what happened was that the container ship industry had ordered many ships during covid. a sharp increase during covid. a sharp increase during that time and many vessels are starting to be delivered now. so even though the red sea crisis for container shipping perspective, essentially took 6—7% of global capacity of the market beginning injanuary, late december early janua

the chain or paid to the final consumer, how much with the orders of mr. mohammad , i hope to serve you and the respected viewers so that there is a good mood in the country and god willing, we will go towards the improvement of the people's condition. it should be said that the most important debate in the topic of subsidies is the explanation of wealth. basically, the redistribution of wealth in different countries has its own tools and mechanisms. we study the countries. different studies show that different methods are common. in any case, the subsidy payment now includes a cash system, a commodity system, a universal price system, and our commodity system in the fifth development plan . however, the area was told, some of them believed. basically, what has caused people to not have a good feeling about whether it is the beginning of the chain or the end of the chain is that they do not have a real feeling that this subsidy is going to reach them anyway . whether it really reached them or not, one of the reasons could be that we did not have stability

the australian economy's holding out well because consumers are still doing quite well, and with the staying where it is, yes we will have slowdown acroos the consumer sctor but we do have this tax cut coming through in the middle of the year which is over $20 million going or into the lower income and middle income households and they will be sure to spend back into the economy, and this is not to mention we have tourism and we have the students coming through that would drive lots of activity for the economy as well. lots of countries, when it comes to interest rates, we know it expecs homebuyers, affects people with mortgages, how does it affecting mortgage ability and housing demand? mortgage affordability has been very very difficult, especially in the last six months where many consumers in that mortgage belt, the lower—end consumer bracket, where they are rolled from the low fixed interest rate environment into the high interest rate, we are seeing pockets of distress across those mortgage belts or lower income households, and it is likely to get worse before we see it get bet

you would have to say at the very least it suggests some softening of consumer sentiment, consumer spending. some big corporations making the point that customers are putting more emphasis on value rather than perhaps spending and splurging the way they were. the number does not suggest an end to the consumer boom or anything like that. it might suggest consumers are a bit more cautious and at the margins, maybe some steam coming out of what once were very red hot parts of the economy. haidi: when it comes to the labor market, how significant was that drop in jobless claims? >> i don't think it changes the overall story today that jobless claims did really -- broadly speaking, the labor market is in good order still. there has been a lot of high-profile layoffs here. companies have been cutting staff, sometimes in sizable numbers, but not yet enough to make a dent on the overall aggregate number. we just had really strong figures for january. you do have some economists making the point that the labor market is softening. job advertisements, in particular, suggesting companies do not want t

third reason for optimism the american consumer. the consumer is hanging tough to keep the economy moving forward. no to something of inflationary pressures with consumer spending growth all in. maybe a little over christmas was really good to me feel stronger than that. that's exactly where you want to be. the power to maintain their spending, they are going forward. real incomes are rising. excess savings savings built up during the pandemic is a high income household to a lesser degree middle income. low income households blew their excess savings. high income, middle income plenty of savings. i can see the deposit account sitting in the banking system. they are well above what you expected to see savings of cash. households will turn to that they need to to maintain their spending. i mentioned that service and of know the stock market is down 2% today it's up how much since he pandemic? housing values have picked up. that's pretty tough if your first-time home buyer. but if you are a homeowner two thirds of the americans it on t

consumer demand remains at high levels and has just begun to respond to tightening monetary conditionsecision to maintain a high key rate coincided with market expectations, experts say. this indicates, that the communications of the central bank are correct, the signals that it gives are perceived adequately by the market. the market has stopped betting on a further increase and overvaluing the asset. the central bank will continue to increase, but the corporate sector is already showing less sensitivity to changes in interest rates; the regulator considers the associated risks for financial stability to be insignificant. at the same time, bank deposits are becoming more and more attractive. saving sentiment among russians is strengthening, and real bond yields federal loan with an indexed face value already exceeds 5% per annum. as for the foreign exchange market, the situation remains the same. participants in the discussion at the central bank agreed to increase the forecast for the average key rate for this next year. they also emphasized that special care is now needed when choos

but chain have not passed on fully to consumers.— chain have not passed on fully to consumers.are seeing is a lot of— to consumers. but we are seeing is a lot of the — to consumers. but we are seeing is a lot of the increases - to consumers. but we are seeing is a lot of the increases we - is a lot of the increases we are seeing due to the diversions of container ships around the tape are likely to be temporary and so, we saw shipping prices spike beginning in mid december when the attacks on shipping occurred in the prices are significantly elevated right now and even to this day of what happened is the container shipping industry as ordered many ships during covid—i9 and a sharp increase in this during that time and starting to see you deliver it now and even though there are red sea crisis from a contender should perspective essentially took six to 7% of global capacity off the market, beginning in late december and early january, beginning in late december and earlyjanuary, gradually, all early january, gradually, all that earlyjanuary, gradually, all that capacity is going

especially if the increase in consumer prices came through earlier this week. market's expectations for a cut next month have been slashed, and the next guest says the fed would be making a mistake by not cutting. mark, welcome. good to have you with us. i'm wondering if, as you say, the economy is quickly approaching that sweet spot for the fed, which is price stability and economic growth at the same time. why you would think we would need to cut rates, why not just leave them where they are if it's coming in, sliding in nicely? >> well, the fed's got two objectives, tyler. one is to achieve full employment, the other is low and stable inflation. we're there, or darn close on the economy, on full employment, 3.5% to 4%. inflation, you know, we're within spitting distance. expectations are well anchored. financial conditions are right where you want them. so then you have to ask, if we're there, why the federal funds rate, that's well above the rate that's consistent with monetary policy neither supporting or restraining growth. the fed puts that at 2.5 or 3,

it has actually reached the final consumer . i mean, until today, most of the goods consumed by people have not been of the quality and quantity that they should be. well, the reason for this is that the government has given subsidies at the beginning of the chain, that is, at the beginning of the work . anyway, it is a cost. it is a big amount for the government . when we say 1/3 of the government's income, it is about 100%. well , this is a significant figure. let's look at its effects in the end, let's see if it has had any positive effects. if it has, let's continue. it doesn't seem like mr. mohammadi , we should have two minutes to summarize your statement that the government is not a good businessman . that people don't touch, because the famous example is that a fish doesn't feel the water in the door, it doesn't feel the presence of water , it feels it when it goes out. if it comes, for example , on the purchase invoice of people, write the actual cost price and mention that it is at a subsidized price. you are buying at

mohammadi for the subsidy he receives. or the consumer in your opinion , what are the drawbacks of this? first of all, we need to see what our goal is, do we subsidize or give to the low income groups so that their purchasing power will increase and their welfare will be maintained, or do we want to keep the country's economy afloat if the resources you have to choose whether a part of the country's production should remain or let the people decide for themselves . let's say our resources are 100 units first of the basic goods chain, if we allocate this subsidy at the beginning of the chain, suppose. that the production of this product has four or five stages, and in each stage of production , we imagine a profit for the producer, the 100 units that are given at the beginning of the chain , at the end of the chain, the finished price for the consumer is about 80 units, but if the same 100 units let's give the end of the chain, that is , the first step is to do the same 100 units of production cost , 120 units or 100 units of production cost will happen. every step of the producer's prof