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May 4, 2024
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ok, john curtice, thank you very much. one of— or so. ok, john curtice, thank you very much. one of the _ or so. ok, john curtice, thank you very much. one of the count i or so. ok, john curtice, thank you l very much. one of the count coming in, greenwich and lewisham and london. �* ., ., ., . london. i'm here to announce the results of — london. i'm here to announce the results of the _ london. i'm here to announce the results of the constituency - london. i'm here to announce the | results of the constituency election for greenwich and lewisham in this london _ for greenwich and lewisham in this london assembly poll 2024. i hereby -ive london assembly poll 2024. i hereby give notice _ london assembly poll 2024. i hereby give notice is constituency returning officer at the election of the constituency member of the land on the _ the constituency member of the land on the subway for greenwich and lewisham — on the subway for greenwich and lewisham held in the 2nd of may 2024. _ lewisham held in the 2nd of may 2024, that the number of votes recorded — 2024, that the n
ok, john curtice, thank you very much. one of— or so. ok, john curtice, thank you very much. one of the _ or so. ok, john curtice, thank you very much. one of the count i or so. ok, john curtice, thank you l very much. one of the count coming in, greenwich and lewisham and london. �* ., ., ., . london. i'm here to announce the results of — london. i'm here to announce the results of the _ london. i'm here to announce the results of the constituency - london. i'm here to announce the |...
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May 2, 2024
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—— john curtice — differently this time? —— john curtice told _ differently this time? —— john curtice told me _ differently this time? —— john curtice told me you _ differently this time? —— john curtice told me you won't - differently this time? —— john i curtice told me you won't very differently this time? —— john - curtice told me you won't very good as leader— curtice told me you won't very good as leader at — curtice told me you won't very good as leader at that _ curtice told me you won't very good as leader at that time. _ curtice told me you won't very good as leader at that time.— as leader at that time. maybe i should sent — as leader at that time. maybe i should sent john _ as leader at that time. maybe i should sent john curtice - as leader at that time. maybe i should sent john curtice a - as leader at that time. maybe i - should sent john curtice a christmas should sentjohn curtice a christmas card and _ should sentjohn curtice a christmas card and try— should sentjohn curtice a christmas card and try to improve things a bit
—— john curtice — differently this time? —— john curtice told _ differently this time? —— john curtice told me _ differently this time? —— john curtice told me you _ differently this time? —— john curtice told me you won't - differently this time? —— john i curtice told me you won't very differently this time? —— john - curtice told me you won't very good as leader— curtice told me you won't very good as leader at — curtice told me you won't very good as leader...
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May 4, 2024
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professor john curtice is with us. what you make of that?— john curtice is with us. what you make of that? ., , , ., make of that? oliver coppard is not as well-known _ make of that? oliver coppard is not as well-known as _ make of that? oliver coppard is not as well- known as steve _ make of that? oliver coppard is not as well-known as steve rotheram. | as well—known as steve rotheram. this is somebody who has not come via the house of commons, but again, we see a swing to labour, here of the order of 4% from conservative to labour. it�*s a bit lower than liverpool. but again, even in these mayoral contests, somewhat more personality —based than is otherwise the case. we are seeing swings to labour. we indeed saw a swing even in the tees valley. so here, even though the conservatives will not want us to focus on these contests, the message coming out at the ballot box is unsurprisingly that the conservative party is less popular thanit conservative party is less popular than it was three years ago when of course they were still ahead in the opinion polls. a ve
professor john curtice is with us. what you make of that?— john curtice is with us. what you make of that? ., , , ., make of that? oliver coppard is not as well-known _ make of that? oliver coppard is not as well-known as _ make of that? oliver coppard is not as well- known as steve _ make of that? oliver coppard is not as well-known as steve rotheram. | as well—known as steve rotheram. this is somebody who has not come via the house of commons, but again, we see a swing to labour, here of...
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May 3, 2024
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professorjohn curtice, great _ the afternoon. professorjohn curtice, great to _ the afternoon. professorjohn curtice, great to talk - the afternoon. professorjohn curtice, great to talk to - the afternoon. professorjohn curtice, great to talk to you, | the afternoon. professorjohn i curtice, great to talk to you, we will be back with you when you have those numbers. thank you again for reminding us that we are still waiting on a lot of results. a bit of political reaction now to what has happened so far. the chairman of the conservatives, richard holden, my heart goes out to a lot of my conservative colleagues who i have been campaigning with out across the country, who have lost their seats overnight, and although we've only seen around a third of councils, a couple of the pccs and none of the big mayoral contests yet, and obviously some disappointing results so far. but also, you know, some areas like fareham, harlow where we've managed to hold conservative councils, and up in newcastle upon tyne where we've finally got a conservative councillor there for the first time in 32
professorjohn curtice, great _ the afternoon. professorjohn curtice, great to _ the afternoon. professorjohn curtice, great to talk - the afternoon. professorjohn curtice, great to talk to - the afternoon. professorjohn curtice, great to talk to you, | the afternoon. professorjohn i curtice, great to talk to you, we will be back with you when you have those numbers. thank you again for reminding us that we are still waiting on a lot of results. a bit of political reaction now to what has...
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May 3, 2024
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mighty majorities _ curtice, that means conservative mps with mighty majorities are _ curtice, that means conservative mps with mighty majorities are mighty - with mighty majorities are mighty nervous — with mighty ma'orities are mighty nervous. ~ ., , ., ., ., ., nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? — nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? sir _ nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? sir keir _ nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? sir keir starmer - nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? sir keir starmer has i about gaza? sir keir starmer has called for a ceasefire as long as hamas and israel both take part together. despite doing that, in february, we saw the losses over the last 2a hours. the february, we saw the losses over the last 24 hem-— last 24 hours. the difficulty is, he can't do anything _ last 24 hours. the difficulty is, he can't do anything short _ iast 24 hours. the difficulty is, he can't do anything short of- last 24 hours. the difficulty is, he. can't do anything short of inventing time travel— can't do anyt
mighty majorities _ curtice, that means conservative mps with mighty majorities are _ curtice, that means conservative mps with mighty majorities are mighty - with mighty majorities are mighty nervous — with mighty ma'orities are mighty nervous. ~ ., , ., ., ., ., nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? — nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? sir _ nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? sir keir _ nervous. what is labour going to do about gaza? sir keir starmer -...
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May 4, 2024
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thank you so much, sirjohn curtice. we will be back - sirjohn curtice. we will be back with you through the course of this afternoon. for now, i will leave you with the weather with chris fawkes. but we will be back in birmingham life shortly. hello, there's been a big reversal of weather fortunes. yesterday, scotland and northern ireland had lots of sunshine and warm weather, with temperatures peaking at 23 degrees celsius. not so much today, though. it's a lot cloudier, a lot cooler. and for some, that means a drop of about nine degrees celsius between yesterday's warm sun and today's rather grey and cloudy skies. the clouds extensive then for scotland and northern ireland and is also still affecting parts of northern england and north wales. best of the sunshine further southwards today where yesterday it was cloudy and wet, feels a lot warmer in today's sunshine across these more southern regions. an odd shower for south east england, some wet weather continuing to affect northern ireland. with outbreaks of rain on and off. there will be a bit of war
thank you so much, sirjohn curtice. we will be back - sirjohn curtice. we will be back with you through the course of this afternoon. for now, i will leave you with the weather with chris fawkes. but we will be back in birmingham life shortly. hello, there's been a big reversal of weather fortunes. yesterday, scotland and northern ireland had lots of sunshine and warm weather, with temperatures peaking at 23 degrees celsius. not so much today, though. it's a lot cloudier, a lot cooler. and for...
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May 4, 2024
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john curtice, done so at iabour's expense. john curtice. please — done so at iabour's expense. john curtice, please don't _ done so at labour's expense. john curtice, please don't go anywhere. i'm sure we will come back to you. now it's time for a look at today's sport with 0lly foster. thank you very much indeed. some breaking football news in the last 24—hour is. real madrid have won the spanish league title with four games left to play. that's after they beat cadiz 3—0 and barcelona lost away at girona. all real�*s goals came in the second half. brahim diaz scored their first and jude bellingham added a second just three minutes after coming off the bench and joselu scored their third. that is a 36th league title for real. barcelona were beating girona 2—1 midway through the second half as they looked to keep the title race going for at least another week, but lost 4—2 to their fellow catalans. girona move above barca into second and they have secured a place in the champion league next season, which will be the first time they have played european football. it's a
john curtice, done so at iabour's expense. john curtice. please — done so at iabour's expense. john curtice, please don't _ done so at labour's expense. john curtice, please don't go anywhere. i'm sure we will come back to you. now it's time for a look at today's sport with 0lly foster. thank you very much indeed. some breaking football news in the last 24—hour is. real madrid have won the spanish league title with four games left to play. that's after they beat cadiz 3—0 and barcelona...
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May 4, 2024
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, thank ou ve quite enough. john curtice, thank you very much — quite enough. john curtice, thank you very much indeed. _ quite enough. john curtice, thank you very much indeed. professor| quite enough. john curtice, thank. you very much indeed. professor sir john curtice with the latest in we're still waiting the west midlands result. at school there right now. let's cross to my colleague rajini vaidyanathan, who is at the count in birmingham. we are waiting for that result. what we have heard in the last few minutes here in birmingham is that there is good to be a bundle check, they are doing that right now. they are doing that in five of the seven areas that are counting to make of this west midlands mayoral results. we have already had results from solihull and wolverhampton, but we are now getting these bundle checks, which means they are going through now and some of the tables and just checking the ballots. but it could mean, there was an issue, an official tells me, we could then as john was saying go into a recount but we're definitely not that stage yet. i'm told from the la
, thank ou ve quite enough. john curtice, thank you very much — quite enough. john curtice, thank you very much indeed. _ quite enough. john curtice, thank you very much indeed. professor| quite enough. john curtice, thank. you very much indeed. professor sir john curtice with the latest in we're still waiting the west midlands result. at school there right now. let's cross to my colleague rajini vaidyanathan, who is at the count in birmingham. we are waiting for that result. what we have...
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predicted, they've made things worse for they've made things worse for the tories as election guru sir john curtice points out in the telegraph today. in those areas where reform fielded a candidate, the conservative vote fell more quickly than harry kanein fell more quickly than harry kane in the penalty box. but whilst things look terminal for rishi sunak , let me issue a word rishi sunak, let me issue a word of caution. turnout was low, which means it's all to play for among the don't knows. in fact,
predicted, they've made things worse for they've made things worse for the tories as election guru sir john curtice points out in the telegraph today. in those areas where reform fielded a candidate, the conservative vote fell more quickly than harry kanein fell more quickly than harry kane in the penalty box. but whilst things look terminal for rishi sunak , let me issue a word rishi sunak, let me issue a word of caution. turnout was low, which means it's all to play for among the don't knows....
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May 3, 2024
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sirjohn curtice, thank ou for of contest. sirjohn curtice, thank you for the _ of contest. sirjohn curtice, thank you for the moment. _ of contest. sirjohn curtice, thank you for the moment. let's get i of contest. sirjohn curtice, thank i you for the moment. let's get brief reaction. we are saying that ben houchen has won in the tees valley, he has held onto it for his third term. ., ., , . , he has held onto it for his third term. . ., . , , ., term. fantastic news, brilliant. this is the _ term. fantastic news, brilliant. this is the bright _ term. fantastic news, brilliant. this is the bright spot - term. fantastic news, brilliant. this is the bright spot for i term. fantastic news, brilliant. this is the bright spot for you. | term. fantastic news, brilliant. i this is the bright spot for you. at this point, i should probably introduce our new guest, the political editor of the sun newspaper. asjohn said, they are not easily interpretable as how a party will perform in a general election. what is the mood in the party? it election. what is the mood in the .a ? , ., ele
sirjohn curtice, thank ou for of contest. sirjohn curtice, thank you for the _ of contest. sirjohn curtice, thank you for the moment. _ of contest. sirjohn curtice, thank you for the moment. let's get i of contest. sirjohn curtice, thank i you for the moment. let's get brief reaction. we are saying that ben houchen has won in the tees valley, he has held onto it for his third term. ., ., , . , he has held onto it for his third term. . ., . , , ., term. fantastic news, brilliant. this is the _...
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May 3, 2024
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i don't know if you heard john curtice, waiting l you heard john curtice, waiting lists are higher than when rishi sunak promised to bring them down in january 2023. and when it comes to the economy, all people have to do is, liz truss. it the economy, all people have to do is. liz truss— is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course _ is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- _ is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- sobering - is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- sobering and| is, liz truss. it is soeb serring i and of course -- sobering and he is, liz truss. it is soeb serring - and of course -- sobering and he has and of course —— sobering and he has and of course —— sobering and he has a great deal to do as a prime minister. but rushy is an expert on the economy and i look forward to keir starmer raising the economy, because rishi can always knock it out of the park. waiting lists imply real suffering. we did come through covid and both the disease and the lockdown and restrictions had health consequences. i’m lockdown and restriction
i don't know if you heard john curtice, waiting l you heard john curtice, waiting lists are higher than when rishi sunak promised to bring them down in january 2023. and when it comes to the economy, all people have to do is, liz truss. it the economy, all people have to do is. liz truss— is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course _ is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- _ is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of course -- sobering - is, liz truss. it is soeb serring and of...
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May 2, 2024
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curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood? let curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood?— curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood? ., ,, ., likelihood? let me make two gentle oints. likelihood? let me make two gentle points- one. — likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there is _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there is no - points. one, that there is no evidence in the polls that have been conducted in the last seven days that the passage of the rwanda bill has any impact of the standing of the parties, but what is clear if you look over the longer time piece, since last november when the government started to focus on rwanda and asylum seeker, what we have seen is a rise in support for reform. to be honest i'm not surprised, one thing i have found is people's attitudes to immigration, of those people who voted conservative is unrelated to whether or not they're willing to vote conservative again. there are issu
curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood? let curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood?— curtice on the policy, what is the likelihood? ., ,, ., likelihood? let me make two gentle oints. likelihood? let me make two gentle points- one. — likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there is _ likelihood? let me make two gentle points. one, that there is no -...
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May 3, 2024
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sirjohn curtice is professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. there are two principal messages that are coming out of these local election results together with the parliamentary by—election in blackpool. the first is that so far as the gap between conservative and labour is concerned, nothing very much seems to have changed. in one sense the as it a surprising statement because the swing from conservative to labour in blackpool south at 26% is the third biggest swing in post—war electoral history. the trouble is swings of the kind of size have now become more commonplace in the last year or so and we have had five by—elections in which the swing from the conservatives to labour has been over 20% so in that sense it's more of the same, it is at of parliamentary by—elections of the kind that we have really not seen since the 92—97 parliament which endedin since the 92—97 parliament which ended in defeat for the conservatives. equally, if we look at the detailed voting figures that the bbc has been collecting overnight, many have more
sirjohn curtice is professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. there are two principal messages that are coming out of these local election results together with the parliamentary by—election in blackpool. the first is that so far as the gap between conservative and labour is concerned, nothing very much seems to have changed. in one sense the as it a surprising statement because the swing from conservative to labour in blackpool south at 26% is the third biggest swing in...
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May 23, 2024
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sir john curtice, forjoining us. sirjohn curtice, polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. always a delight now let's go to stormont now. speak to gb news. northern ireland reporter dougie beattie dougie, always a delight to have you on the show. we were just talking there about that snap election in 2017 and of course the dup became absolutely pivotal. that confidence and supply to the conservative party cost them £1 billion, but it kept them in power. dougie what's the political landscape now? on, on on your side of the sea there in northern ireland? >> well, it's totally fascinating , >> well, it's totally fascinating, martin. i mean, we have 18 seats in northern ireland. eight of those are held by the dup, seven by sinn fein, but they are an abstentionist party. they don't take those seats, then we have two by the sdlp and one by the alliance party. but out of those 18 seats, six of them are very, very slim majorities, including, gavin robinson, the now leader of the dup seat in
sir john curtice, forjoining us. sirjohn curtice, polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. always a delight now let's go to stormont now. speak to gb news. northern ireland reporter dougie beattie dougie, always a delight to have you on the show. we were just talking there about that snap election in 2017 and of course the dup became absolutely pivotal. that confidence and supply to the conservative party cost them £1 billion, but it kept them in power. dougie...
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May 4, 2024
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the bbc�*s polling expert john curtice has said he expects labour's sadiq khan to win the london mayoral election by around ten percentage points. this would give him a record third term as the mayor of london. there is speculation about a declaration from city hall in london taking place some time this afternoon. we are still awaiting results in greater manchester and the west midlands, where the conservatives will be hoping andy street can cling on. and we are also expecting results from a the remaining handful of councils yet to declare, as well as police and crime commissioners. let's get some analysis on the results that have come through overnight. our political correspondent, nick eardley, is in the newsroom. it's been a busy few hours. where are we now?— it's been a busy few hours. where are we now? yes, the big story so far this afternoon _ are we now? yes, the big story so far this afternoon is _ are we now? yes, the big story so far this afternoon is from - are we now? yes, the big story so far this afternoon is from the - far this afternoon is from the capital, london, wher
the bbc�*s polling expert john curtice has said he expects labour's sadiq khan to win the london mayoral election by around ten percentage points. this would give him a record third term as the mayor of london. there is speculation about a declaration from city hall in london taking place some time this afternoon. we are still awaiting results in greater manchester and the west midlands, where the conservatives will be hoping andy street can cling on. and we are also expecting results from a...
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May 4, 2024
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sojohn curtice is with us. just some of the results so far. we have had a number of london figures come in, and we are hearing from our colleagues there that birmingham are still quite tight. let’s colleagues there that birmingham are still quite tight-— still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. _ still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. you _ still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. you have - still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. you have the i west midlands. you have the discussion there about the result for the solihull district within the west midlands authority that the result they are for the mayoral race has no already been published. we have calculated the swing that this means from 2021. the answer is 5% from conservative to labour. the swing that labour need across the west midlands as a whole to unseat andy street is 4.5%. in other words, solihull does underline the claim that this election looks too close to call. certainly, andy street needs to be a little bit better than he did i
sojohn curtice is with us. just some of the results so far. we have had a number of london figures come in, and we are hearing from our colleagues there that birmingham are still quite tight. let’s colleagues there that birmingham are still quite tight-— still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. _ still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. you _ still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. you have - still quite tight. let's turn to the west midlands. you have the...
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May 23, 2024
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coming up — we'll get reaction and analysis from the bbc�*s resident polling expert, professor sirjohn curtice. our other main headline — another key day of evidence at the post office inquiry, as the former boss paula vennells denies trying to close down a review of the faulty horizon it system. this was important, but i was reassured _ this was important, but i was reassured of— this was important, but i was reassured of the _ this was important, but i was reassured of the same - this was important, but i was reassured of the same time l this was important, but i was. reassured of the same time that these _ reassured of the same time that these bugs _ reassured of the same time that these bugs have _ reassured of the same time that these bugs have been— reassured of the same time that these bugs have been dealt- reassured of the same time thatl these bugs have been dealt with. welcome to downing street where 2a hours ago, rishi sunak called a general election to take place on ajuly. today, party leaders have hit the campaign trail, delivering their message to voters across the uk — a
coming up — we'll get reaction and analysis from the bbc�*s resident polling expert, professor sirjohn curtice. our other main headline — another key day of evidence at the post office inquiry, as the former boss paula vennells denies trying to close down a review of the faulty horizon it system. this was important, but i was reassured _ this was important, but i was reassured of— this was important, but i was reassured of the _ this was important, but i was reassured of the same - this...
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May 25, 2024
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sir john curtice gbnews.com/yoursay say next though. sirjohn curtice is polling. he's a polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde, and he'll be in the political hot seat to shine a good afternoon. welcome. if you've just tuned in, this is gb news on tv, online and on digital radio. i'm nana akua, andifs digital radio. i'm nana akua, and it's now time for this week's political spotlight. and joining me to shine a light is sir john curtice. he's a polling sirjohn curtice. he's a polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. so thank you very much, professor. thank you very much, professor. thank you very much , john, for joining much, professor. thank you very much , john, forjoining us. so much, john, forjoining us. so this is a very exciting moment actually in polling . sorry. my actually in polling. sorry. my computer's full. crikey. what's happened here? sorry my computer started but this is very exciting moment in politics. now you famously said 99% chance labour of winning. is that still i >> -- >> o
sir john curtice gbnews.com/yoursay say next though. sirjohn curtice is polling. he's a polling expert and professor of politics at the university of strathclyde, and he'll be in the political hot seat to shine a good afternoon. welcome. if you've just tuned in, this is gb news on tv, online and on digital radio. i'm nana akua, andifs digital radio. i'm nana akua, and it's now time for this week's political spotlight. and joining me to shine a light is sir john curtice. he's a polling sirjohn...
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May 3, 2024
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mar; expectations in terms of what john curtice has said himself.— curtice has said himself. may be it's because _ curtice has said himself. may be it's because you _ curtice has said himself. may be it's because you had _ curtice has said himself. may be it's because you had a _ it's because you had a different leader. ., . . it's because you had a different leader. ., ., ., ., , , leader. not at all. the reality is we had the _ leader. not at all. the reality is we had the vaccine _ leader. not at all. the reality is we had the vaccine boost - leader. not at all. the reality is we had the vaccine boost which | leader. not at all. the reality is - we had the vaccine boost which was a big boost electorally and also not forget we came of the big results in 2019 where we got elected for the first time in the red wall but what happened in 2021 is what happened in 2020. we've had war in the ukraine and the middle east and the impact on energy spike. that and the middle east and the impact on energy spike-— on energy spike. that the point is we miaht on energy spike. that the po
mar; expectations in terms of what john curtice has said himself.— curtice has said himself. may be it's because _ curtice has said himself. may be it's because you _ curtice has said himself. may be it's because you had _ curtice has said himself. may be it's because you had a _ it's because you had a different leader. ., . . it's because you had a different leader. ., ., ., ., , , leader. not at all. the reality is we had the _ leader. not at all. the reality is we had the vaccine _ leader....
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May 4, 2024
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it is, it is actually 1500 votes in it between the two candidates, that really is close as sirjohn curtice was saying, you don't really expect margins like that in these kinds of races. but it really was a significant victory. i'mjoined races. but it really was a significant victory. i'm joined now by our midlands political editor, and we have heard the speech is there now, rob, a new mayorfor the west midlands. now we are looking towards a general election, and there will be momentum that the labour party hope to carry through. they will hope to carry through and ithink— they will hope to carry through and i think we _ they will hope to carry through and i think we should be super cautious about— i think we should be super cautious about deciding we can read anything into this _ about deciding we can read anything into this result into what might happen— into this result into what might happen in— into this result into what might happen in a general election. it is pretty— happen in a general election. it is pretty clear that personality is a really _ pretty clear that personali
it is, it is actually 1500 votes in it between the two candidates, that really is close as sirjohn curtice was saying, you don't really expect margins like that in these kinds of races. but it really was a significant victory. i'mjoined races. but it really was a significant victory. i'm joined now by our midlands political editor, and we have heard the speech is there now, rob, a new mayorfor the west midlands. now we are looking towards a general election, and there will be momentum that the...
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May 23, 2024
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0ur polling guru john curtice has been taking a look. as things stand at the moment, on average in the polls, and there are differences between the pollsters, but on average, they put the conservatives 21 points behind at the moment. even the best of them put them at least around 16 points behind. and however you look at it, that is an outcome that would result in labour being elected with an overall majority. so the challenge facing rishi sunak is to try to overturn that very, very substantial labour lead. and frankly no government, apart from john major in 1997, no prime minister has called an election so far behind. so he's going to have to beat the psephological records if indeed he's going to win this election. the economy and the cost of living are shaping up to be key election issues — so what do small business owners make of the government and opposition's plans? 0ur correspondent ben boulos has been speaking to traders at a wholesale market in birmingham. there are plenty of political analogies to be drawn here at birmingham w
0ur polling guru john curtice has been taking a look. as things stand at the moment, on average in the polls, and there are differences between the pollsters, but on average, they put the conservatives 21 points behind at the moment. even the best of them put them at least around 16 points behind. and however you look at it, that is an outcome that would result in labour being elected with an overall majority. so the challenge facing rishi sunak is to try to overturn that very, very substantial...
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May 3, 2024
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sirjohn curtice, thank you very much _ truth. sirjohn curtice, thank you very much for— truth. sirjohn curtice, thank you very much for all— truth. sirjohn curtice, thank you very much for all of— truth. sirjohn curtice, thank you very much for all of that - very much for all of that important analysis, particularly in terms of the rise of anti tory tactical voting. that is very difficult, you have a pincer movement, but in the places where the liberal democrats are second to you, where labour is second to come in places across the country. we have to make a strong case and the point i want to come back to is what i said earlier about this point about swing. the question is is a conservative voter is coming out in voting by deciding to vote for somebody else or conservative voters not clear about what they're going to do and staying home? i would argue if you look at the results, i'm not trying to pretend, it's a disappointing thing, but i'm trying to say there are conservatives who come at the moment, and elections taking place in many part of the country at the moment we
sirjohn curtice, thank you very much _ truth. sirjohn curtice, thank you very much for— truth. sirjohn curtice, thank you very much for all— truth. sirjohn curtice, thank you very much for all of— truth. sirjohn curtice, thank you very much for all of that - very much for all of that important analysis, particularly in terms of the rise of anti tory tactical voting. that is very difficult, you have a pincer movement, but in the places where the liberal democrats are second to you, where...
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May 25, 2024
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, say that. fist seconds on sunday with john curtice, sa that. �* . ., ., say that. at that hour of the morning- — say that. at that hour of the morning- i _ say that. at that hour of the morning. i am _ say that. at that hour of the morning. i am going - say that. at that hour of the morning. i am going to - say that. at that hour of the morning. i am going to be i say that. at that hour of the i morning. i am going to be very aggressive _ morning. i am going to be very aggressive and _ morning. i am going to be very aggressive and fact _ morning. i am going to be very aggressive and fact checking i morning. i am going to be very i aggressive and fact checking and i am going to say no, you have never had a martini. i want a big am going to say no, you have never had a martini. iwanta big red button. 0ne reviewer suggested that if somebody is not telling the truth we should have a big red button and it should flash on the screen if they are not telling the truth. 0r like on graham norton where they have the chair that goes backwards. anyway, all ideas gratefully re
, say that. fist seconds on sunday with john curtice, sa that. �* . ., ., say that. at that hour of the morning- — say that. at that hour of the morning- i _ say that. at that hour of the morning. i am _ say that. at that hour of the morning. i am going - say that. at that hour of the morning. i am going to - say that. at that hour of the morning. i am going to be i say that. at that hour of the i morning. i am going to be very aggressive _ morning. i am going to be very aggressive and _...
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May 23, 2024
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the man with his eye on all the numbers, professorjohn l all the numbers, professorjohn curtice and we will hear from him as the selection gets under way. now, we know the election will take place on the 4th ofjuly. it will be fought across 650 constituencies. this time round there are some boundary changes that could change things somewhat, but they have been approved by parliament. we have been speaking to voters across england to find out what they make of it all. good news, bout time we had a change of government and we have had tories for 40 odd years and the country seems to be just going backwards. for 40 odd years and the country seems to bejust going backwards. it seems to be just going backwards. it is about time. i don't think they have _ is about time. idon't think they have got— is about time. i don't think they have got a — is about time. i don't think they have got a cat in hell's chance. i have _ have got a cat in hell's chance. i have voted _ have got a cat in hell's chance. i have voted tory all my life but i will never — have voted tory all my life but i will n
the man with his eye on all the numbers, professorjohn l all the numbers, professorjohn curtice and we will hear from him as the selection gets under way. now, we know the election will take place on the 4th ofjuly. it will be fought across 650 constituencies. this time round there are some boundary changes that could change things somewhat, but they have been approved by parliament. we have been speaking to voters across england to find out what they make of it all. good news, bout time we had...
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sir john curtice, the legendary pollster. he's predicting an electoral wipe—out for the conservatives. remember the reform party only stood in 10 to 15% of seats last night. what could that look like in a general election? we'll have a full analysis on that next. i'm martin daubney on gb news. britain's news channel. but first, it's time for your weather. so . weather. so. >> a brighter outlook with boxt solar sponsors of weather on . gb news. >> hello, time for your latest weather update from the met office here on gb news. a bit of a mish mash again today. lots of places grey with some heavy rain around, but it's a brighter day in the south and it's another mostly fine day across northern scotland. in between though, low pressure and weather fronts are providing a lot of cloud and outbreaks of rain. some heavy downpours across parts of lincolnshire and yorkshire extending into the north midlands. the odd rumble of thunder maybe further north as well parts of northwest england, southwest scotland, but for much of northern
sir john curtice, the legendary pollster. he's predicting an electoral wipe—out for the conservatives. remember the reform party only stood in 10 to 15% of seats last night. what could that look like in a general election? we'll have a full analysis on that next. i'm martin daubney on gb news. britain's news channel. but first, it's time for your weather. so . weather. so. >> a brighter outlook with boxt solar sponsors of weather on . gb news. >> hello, time for your latest...
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election expert sir john curtice says the final outcome could be the tories worst performance for 40 years, celebrating a mayoral victory in the east midlands, the labour leader said the tories time is up. >> i think the message here is very, very clear and i think across the east midlands there's been a sending of that message to the government, which is we're fed up with your division, with your chaos, with your failure 14 years and i'm sorry, i don't care which political party you support if you leave your country in a worse state than when you found it 14 years later, you do not deserve to be in government for a moment longer . longer. >> well, andrew griffith is minister for science, innovation and technology. he told us the pubuc and technology. he told us the public doesn't want labour's policies. >> look, it's a difficult set of results. i think that was what was expected going in. there's going to be a very, very simple choice at the next election. who walks through number 10 downing street? is it rishi sunak with his plan? that's starting to work now, or is it keir with wit
election expert sir john curtice says the final outcome could be the tories worst performance for 40 years, celebrating a mayoral victory in the east midlands, the labour leader said the tories time is up. >> i think the message here is very, very clear and i think across the east midlands there's been a sending of that message to the government, which is we're fed up with your division, with your chaos, with your failure 14 years and i'm sorry, i don't care which political party you...
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May 22, 2024
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we'll talk tonight to professor sirjohn curtice — elections guru, to kelly beaver — the head of ipsos. we'll hear from conservative, labour, snp and lib dem politicians, as well as former director of communications to david cameron sir craig oliver, and sir keir starmer�*s biographer, tom baldwin. but first, nick was first to pick up on rumours swirling last night. nick, why now? you were right. at this very table last night as you say, i reported on what i described as massive rumours that rishi sunak would make that election announcement today and the election could be onjuly 4th. then we had complete silence from number 10. in a way, that is understandable because when you announce an election, there are protocols you have to follow, you have to seek permission for a dissolution of parliament from the manic and you have to proceed with some care. and you want to have an element of surprise. —— from the monarch. then we had a lengthy speech by the prime minister completely soaked in the rain, reminiscent of the former french president francois holland of the day he was inaugur
we'll talk tonight to professor sirjohn curtice — elections guru, to kelly beaver — the head of ipsos. we'll hear from conservative, labour, snp and lib dem politicians, as well as former director of communications to david cameron sir craig oliver, and sir keir starmer�*s biographer, tom baldwin. but first, nick was first to pick up on rumours swirling last night. nick, why now? you were right. at this very table last night as you say, i reported on what i described as massive rumours...
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May 25, 2024
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and we will have our first 60 seconds on sunday withjohn curtice. say that after you've had a martini. i've never had a martini, so i don't at that hour. i'm going to check my facts that hour of the morning. no, no, no. look, i'm going to be very aggressively fact checking. right. there we go. i want a big red button. somebody suggested that one of our viewers, bridget, said that we should if we think somebody is not telling the truth or is telling porkies, that we should have a big red button and it should just like flash on the screen. 0r like on graham norton where they have the chair that goes backwards anyway. all ideas gratefully received. thank you very much for making it to the end of this one. bye bye. live from london. this is bbc news ukraine says russia bombed a superstore in kharkiv where two—hundred people are thought to have been shopping, killing at least two people and injuring others. this, quite frankly at the moment, is, for the ukrainian's, one of the most anxious periods since those first months after the full—scale invasio
and we will have our first 60 seconds on sunday withjohn curtice. say that after you've had a martini. i've never had a martini, so i don't at that hour. i'm going to check my facts that hour of the morning. no, no, no. look, i'm going to be very aggressively fact checking. right. there we go. i want a big red button. somebody suggested that one of our viewers, bridget, said that we should if we think somebody is not telling the truth or is telling porkies, that we should have a big red button...
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May 22, 2024
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professor sir john curtice. _ decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank _ decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank you _ decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank you and - decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank you and we i decided to focus on. professor sirl john curtice, thank you and we will hear much more from you in the weeks to come. and to other news... the former chief executive of the post office, paula vennells, has been in tears at the public inquiry into its it scandal. she admitted she'd "made mistakes", but denied there'd been a conspiracy to cover up problems with the horizon system. ms vennells, who was chief executive from 2012 to 2019, apologised to sub—postmasters, after hundreds of were wrongly prosecuted when faulty technology made it appear that money was missing from their branches. our business correspondent, emma simpson, was at the inquiry. you said they were disturbing, didn't you, miss vennells? - paula vennells has come to face the music, but she f
professor sir john curtice. _ decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank _ decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank you _ decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank you and - decided to focus on. professor sir john curtice, thank you and we i decided to focus on. professor sirl john curtice, thank you and we will hear much more from you in the weeks to come. and to other news... the former chief executive of the post office, paula vennells, has been in...
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election experts sir john curtice says the final outcome could be the tories worst performance for 40 years. ellie reevesis performance for 40 years. ellie reeves is labour's deputy national campaign coordinator. she's told us it's a good start but more still needs to be done . but more still needs to be done. >> look, i think we're pleased but not complacent. there are a large number of battleground seats that we need to win at the general election to form a government. places like bolsover and mansfield, south derbyshire. the seats that we need to win. so that's why winning in the east midlands is a really good indicator of, of the mood and where things are going. >> well. andrew griffiths . >> well. andrew griffiths. is minister for science, innovation and technology. he told us the pubuc and technology. he told us the public don't really want labour's policies. >> look it's a difficult set of results. i think that was what was expected going in. there's going to be a very, very simple choice at the next election. who walks through number 10 downing street? is it rishi sunak with h
election experts sir john curtice says the final outcome could be the tories worst performance for 40 years. ellie reevesis performance for 40 years. ellie reeves is labour's deputy national campaign coordinator. she's told us it's a good start but more still needs to be done . but more still needs to be done. >> look, i think we're pleased but not complacent. there are a large number of battleground seats that we need to win at the general election to form a government. places like...
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May 3, 2024
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we have the predicted national share there from professor curtice, which is clearly from england, so the nine percentage point lead for labour party. is it safe to assume in wales as in england, they will be considered double voting for labour if he general election happens towards the end of the year, that will squeeze out plaid cymru? i do will squeeze out plaid cymru? i do not think that — will squeeze out plaid cymru? i do not think that is _ will squeeze out plaid cymru? i if not think that is the case at all. we would expect keir starmer to go forward and be the next by minister of the united kingdom unless something very, very dramatic happens. but that will happen regardless of how wales votes. that is why i fear that labour takes votes for granted in wales and plaid cymru says will not allow that. just as we have seen labour even in this election year, when they�*re meant to be on the march being beaten by the greens, the lib dems in some of england, it is plaid cymru�*sjob that we can be that credible alternative. and yes, the context is difficult. in this kind of ele
we have the predicted national share there from professor curtice, which is clearly from england, so the nine percentage point lead for labour party. is it safe to assume in wales as in england, they will be considered double voting for labour if he general election happens towards the end of the year, that will squeeze out plaid cymru? i do will squeeze out plaid cymru? i do not think that — will squeeze out plaid cymru? i do not think that is _ will squeeze out plaid cymru? i if not think...
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May 4, 2024
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thank you very much, john curtice. all the results are online of course and we are continuing to bring you a tour live. —— bring you eight all life. thank you for being with us so far today. keep watching. live from london, this is bbc news. efforts are intensifying to secure a deal for the release of hostages in gaza and a ceasefire, as talks take place in egypt. a hamas delegation is attending the talks in cairo. labour's sadiq khan has been re—elected for a record third term as london mayor, defeating conservative susan hall. the death toll in brazil reaches 56, after flooding and mudslides. almost 70 people are missing. brazilian authorities are warning that rising water levels are putting dams under strain and threatening the metropolis of porto alegre. and the wait is almost over for the world's largest live music event — with the eurovision song contest kicking off in malmo, sweden, this weekend. sport, and for a full round—up, from the bbc sport centre, here's 0lly foster. many thanks indeed. ipswich
thank you very much, john curtice. all the results are online of course and we are continuing to bring you a tour live. —— bring you eight all life. thank you for being with us so far today. keep watching. live from london, this is bbc news. efforts are intensifying to secure a deal for the release of hostages in gaza and a ceasefire, as talks take place in egypt. a hamas delegation is attending the talks in cairo. labour's sadiq khan has been re—elected for a record third term as london...
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predicted, they've made things worse for they've made things worse for the tories as election guru sir john curtice points out in the telegraph today. in those areas where reform fielded a candidate, the conservative vote fell more quickly than harry kanein fell more quickly than harry kane in the penalty box. but whilst things look terminal for rishi sunak , let me issue a word rishi sunak, let me issue a word of caution. turnout was low, which means it's all to play for among the don't knows. in fact, among the don't knows. in fact, a don't know prime minister leading a don't know government made up of don't know mps would be the most popular administration in 100 years. but here's the point governments generally lose by elections , and generally lose by elections, and whilst local elections should be about potholes , street lighting about potholes, street lighting and bins, they often serve as a chance to give the incumbents a bloody nose . now, of course, the bloody nose. now, of course, the tories have suffered more than a bloody nose. but in a few months time, when the country goes to the pol
predicted, they've made things worse for they've made things worse for the tories as election guru sir john curtice points out in the telegraph today. in those areas where reform fielded a candidate, the conservative vote fell more quickly than harry kanein fell more quickly than harry kane in the penalty box. but whilst things look terminal for rishi sunak , let me issue a word rishi sunak, let me issue a word of caution. turnout was low, which means it's all to play for among the don't knows....
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May 25, 2024
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professor sir john curtice, the oracle of polling , curtice, the oracle of polling, gives a 99% chance that keir starmer will be prime minister. this is the biggest lead that a party has had for so long since world war two. the fact is that, for example, you could take theresa may's election where she was about 20 points ahead of corbyn and clearly that collapsed. but what you've seen here is that labour's poll lead has basically not shifted an inch since liz truss was prime minister and it's very reliable. and if you look at the local elections , those numbers didn't elections, those numbers didn't include scotland, for example, which has actually seeing a pretty rapid shift towards the labour party and so i actually think that you're doing a disservice to the tories because the sensible thing for tories to do would be to go to those seats with 15,000 majorities that maybe they could save. if you're trying to save seats that were won last time, you've not got a hopein won last time, you've not got a hope in hell. >> i don't think you listen to what i said. i said the next general elec
professor sir john curtice, the oracle of polling , curtice, the oracle of polling, gives a 99% chance that keir starmer will be prime minister. this is the biggest lead that a party has had for so long since world war two. the fact is that, for example, you could take theresa may's election where she was about 20 points ahead of corbyn and clearly that collapsed. but what you've seen here is that labour's poll lead has basically not shifted an inch since liz truss was prime minister and it's...
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May 26, 2024
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each week the nation's election expert professorjohn curtice will keep the numbers right. mr sunak needs either a record campaign swing, or for the polls to be wrong and have their worst election ever. and a wonderful array of well—known faces will be join to work out what's going on. alanjohnson, former home secretary. and former conservative cabinet minister nicky morgan are first. boss ofjohn lewis, sharon white. and the real magic? elections mean you are in control — so stay with us, don't miss a thing. morning. let's get started with what's making the news. the conservative plan to introduce mandatory national service — whether military or community service — for 18—year—olds, is splashed almost everywhere. rachel reeves accuses the conservatives of promising to cut tax without saying where the money's coming from on the front of the observer. and the tabloids splash with the sad news that eamonn holmes and ruth langsford, a real—life tv sofa couple, are to split. the politics and election come you don't get bigger moments than this until the end of the
each week the nation's election expert professorjohn curtice will keep the numbers right. mr sunak needs either a record campaign swing, or for the polls to be wrong and have their worst election ever. and a wonderful array of well—known faces will be join to work out what's going on. alanjohnson, former home secretary. and former conservative cabinet minister nicky morgan are first. boss ofjohn lewis, sharon white. and the real magic? elections mean you are in control — so stay with us,...
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May 11, 2024
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you see, if sir john curtice their kids don't have to. you see, if sirjohn curtice is correct, when he pretty much pretty much always is. and keir, he said that keir is pretty much i think he's 99.9% chance of winning the next general election . and if keir does election. and if keir does become prime minister, unfortunately for him, in anticipation of this prospect before he's even in office, his projected income for this plan is unravelling before his very eyes as parents decide not to go private. in fact, it's already beginning to bite. enrolments to these schools have already fallen by 2.7% and are set to fallen by 2.7% and are set to fall further in september. the independent schools council, who have been collecting data on new starters for over a decade, reported this as the biggest annual drop since it began collecting its data in 2011. now, the body represents almost 1400 private schools, and experts say that the policy could result in as many of them closing down. julie robinson, the chief exec of the isc, said you can see the c
you see, if sir john curtice their kids don't have to. you see, if sirjohn curtice is correct, when he pretty much pretty much always is. and keir, he said that keir is pretty much i think he's 99.9% chance of winning the next general election . and if keir does election. and if keir does become prime minister, unfortunately for him, in anticipation of this prospect before he's even in office, his projected income for this plan is unravelling before his very eyes as parents decide not to go...
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May 2, 2024
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to help us decode that, let's bring in professor sirjohn curtice. looking at these first straws in the political wind tonight, what does that make you think? ,, ., ., ., , think? sunderland in parliamentary elections is often _ think? sunderland in parliamentary elections is often early _ think? sunderland in parliamentary elections is often early and - think? sunderland in parliamentary elections is often early and we - think? sunderland in parliamentary| elections is often early and we have to remember that it does have its own particular catchment. this is a very eurosceptic part of the country. it is also somewhere where ukip did well in local elections in the past. we have now seen reform out to poll the conservatives in each of the wards results we have got in from sunderland so far. as you have seen in the summary the conservative vote is well down on 2021 and even down on this time last year. at least in this early result the conservatives do have reason to be concerned about what will happen in eurosceptic reports of the country where refor
to help us decode that, let's bring in professor sirjohn curtice. looking at these first straws in the political wind tonight, what does that make you think? ,, ., ., ., , think? sunderland in parliamentary elections is often _ think? sunderland in parliamentary elections is often early _ think? sunderland in parliamentary elections is often early and - think? sunderland in parliamentary elections is often early and we - think? sunderland in parliamentary| elections is often early and we have...
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May 3, 2024
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. _ let's speak to sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. great to talk to you again. this is an estimate _ great to talk to you again. this is an estimate of— great to talk to you again. this is an estimate of what _ great to talk to you again. this is an estimate of what would i great to talk to you again. this is an estimate of what would have i an estimate of what would have happened — an estimate of what would have happened if— an estimate of what would have happened if the _ an estimate of what would have happened if the whole - an estimate of what would have happened if the whole of- an estimate of what would have happened if the whole of the i an estimate of what would have i happened if the whole of the country had had _ happened if the whole of the country had had iocai— happened if the whole of the country had had local council— happened if the whole of the country had had local council elections- had had local council elections yesterday _ had had local council elections yesterday rather _ had had local council election
. _ let's speak to sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclyde. great to talk to you again. this is an estimate _ great to talk to you again. this is an estimate of— great to talk to you again. this is an estimate of what _ great to talk to you again. this is an estimate of what would i great to talk to you again. this is an estimate of what would have i an estimate of what would have happened — an estimate of what would have happened if— an estimate of what...
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now, look, the facts of this is, as professor sir john curtice, the oracle of psephology, always says, local elections are actually quite hard to copy and paste on to national ones. so if you look at the results, if it's 10 or 11% by the end of counting, as it will be later today, or maybe tomorrow, then that would mean it's a bigger margin than we saw in last year's local elections. and if you look at where the seats where the wards have shifted, they're very well targeted. so you've got redditch, you've got rushmoor, you've got milton keynes . what you've got milton keynes. what you're seeing is middle class areas , conservative areas and areas, conservative areas and most of all leave voting areas. having the biggest shifts from to tory labour. and so if you actually put that onto a general election, i think you would, you know, it still looks very positive for the labour party. >> i just want to get up some footage earlier on from sadiq khan's victory speech here in london, where he was actually heckled as he was giving his victory speech. we're going to get those images for you .
now, look, the facts of this is, as professor sir john curtice, the oracle of psephology, always says, local elections are actually quite hard to copy and paste on to national ones. so if you look at the results, if it's 10 or 11% by the end of counting, as it will be later today, or maybe tomorrow, then that would mean it's a bigger margin than we saw in last year's local elections. and if you look at where the seats where the wards have shifted, they're very well targeted. so you've got...
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May 26, 2024
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revered pollsters professor sir john curtice and lord robert hayward have both noted that a party has never before come from so far behind in the polls to win a general election . to consider these election. to consider these matters, i have with me, the former labour adviser stella kidu. i'm sorry i always get that messed up for me, santiaguito santiaguito, political commentator matthew stadlen and former advisor in chief of staff to nadhim zahawi james pryce. love to see you all here and thank you, stella, for being so tolerant , matt, let's being so tolerant, matt, let's start with farage, nigel farage has been with camilla this morning and it does appear, does it not, that he would have been a candidate had the election been later in the year, and this could be quite significant, could be quite significant, could it not. yeah. >> and i was chatting to nigel before coming on air. >> we know each other a little bit. i disagree with almost all of his politics, but we get on perfectly well. man to man. and it seems to me that he was preparing a very serious campaign, essentially to ta
revered pollsters professor sir john curtice and lord robert hayward have both noted that a party has never before come from so far behind in the polls to win a general election . to consider these election. to consider these matters, i have with me, the former labour adviser stella kidu. i'm sorry i always get that messed up for me, santiaguito santiaguito, political commentator matthew stadlen and former advisor in chief of staff to nadhim zahawi james pryce. love to see you all here and...
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May 5, 2024
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i joining us now is professor sirjohn curtice, from the university of strathclyde — he's been analysing all the results as they've come in. we have spoken to you a lot over the past couple of days about council results, so let's focus on the west midlands mayoral results. what do the swings tell us about who swung where and how that can be projected nationally? where and how that can be pro'ected nationall ? . . where and how that can be pro'ected nationall ? , ., , where and how that can be pro'ected nationall ? , . , ., nationally? first warning is that the metro mayoral— nationally? first warning is that the metro mayoral contest - nationally? first warning is that the metro mayoral contest are l nationally? first warning is that i the metro mayoral contest are the least reliable indicator of where the parties at, but if you look at all of the mayoral contests, you see, as was andy street's experience, substantial declines in conservative support since 2021, and to that extent at least the results of the mayoral elections in terms of change was not that the similar to what happened
i joining us now is professor sirjohn curtice, from the university of strathclyde — he's been analysing all the results as they've come in. we have spoken to you a lot over the past couple of days about council results, so let's focus on the west midlands mayoral results. what do the swings tell us about who swung where and how that can be projected nationally? where and how that can be pro'ected nationall ? . . where and how that can be pro'ected nationall ? , ., , where and how that can be...
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May 23, 2024
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professorjohn curtice has been taking a look. as things stand at the moment, on average in the polls, and there are differences between the pollsters, but on average, they put the conservatives 21 points behind at the moment. even the best of them put them at least around 16 points behind. and however you look at it, that is an outcome that would result in labour being elected with an overall majority. so the challenge facing rishi sunak is to try to overturn that very, very substantial labour lead. and frankly no government, apart from john major in 1997, no prime minister has called an election so far behind. so he's going to have to beat the psephological records if indeed he's going to win this election. the election will take place on the lith ofjuly and will be fought across 650 constituencies with some boundary changes, which have been approved by parliament. we've been speaking to voters across england to find out what they think. good news, yeah, it's about time we had a change of government. we have had tories for 1h od
professorjohn curtice has been taking a look. as things stand at the moment, on average in the polls, and there are differences between the pollsters, but on average, they put the conservatives 21 points behind at the moment. even the best of them put them at least around 16 points behind. and however you look at it, that is an outcome that would result in labour being elected with an overall majority. so the challenge facing rishi sunak is to try to overturn that very, very substantial labour...
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i mean, john curtice, who's the doyen of electoral experts, has come out this morning and rubbished their analysis at every local election. the labour party does worse than it does at a general election. their analysis assumes that the lib dems, the greens and the independent are going to take 35% of the vote at the general election, and that labour will only win one seat in scotland, whereas the latest poll out yesterday shows us winning 28 seats. we're not heading for a hung parliament. i'm never complacent , but all the results complacent, but all the results from last week indicate that we're heading for a very substantial labour majority and bill, there's confusion in the tory ranks about where the party should head, where it's at at the moment clearly isn't working. >> a lot of people are saying it's becoming more like the labour party. it doesn't feel very conservative at all. and to that end, miriam cates suella braverman, dame andrea jenkyns said we must become more conservative. we must be more like margaret thatcher. we must move more to the right . what move more to the right.
i mean, john curtice, who's the doyen of electoral experts, has come out this morning and rubbished their analysis at every local election. the labour party does worse than it does at a general election. their analysis assumes that the lib dems, the greens and the independent are going to take 35% of the vote at the general election, and that labour will only win one seat in scotland, whereas the latest poll out yesterday shows us winning 28 seats. we're not heading for a hung parliament. i'm...
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May 4, 2024
05/24
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let's hear from professor sirjohn curtice from the university of strathclyde. i hope you are feeling better, yesterday i think were clinging to your school because it had been a long night. i hope you had some good sleep? long night. i hope you had some good slee? , long night. i hope you had some good slee - ? , . long night. i hope you had some good slee . ? , ., ., long night. i hope you had some good slee? , ., ., , , sleep? yes, i had a good night sleep and wasn't disturbed _ sleep? yes, i had a good night sleep and wasn't disturbed to _ sleep? yes, i had a good night sleep and wasn't disturbed to early - sleep? yes, i had a good night sleep and wasn't disturbed to early this - and wasn't disturbed to early this morning — and wasn't disturbed to early this morning by yourself and your fellow programmes. morning by yourself and your fellow programmes-— morning by yourself and your fellow programmes. where we are at now, com ared programmes. where we are at now, compared to — programmes. where we are at now, compared to yesterday, _ programmes. where w
let's hear from professor sirjohn curtice from the university of strathclyde. i hope you are feeling better, yesterday i think were clinging to your school because it had been a long night. i hope you had some good sleep? long night. i hope you had some good slee? , long night. i hope you had some good slee - ? , . long night. i hope you had some good slee . ? , ., ., long night. i hope you had some good slee? , ., ., , , sleep? yes, i had a good night sleep and wasn't disturbed _ sleep? yes, i...
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May 24, 2024
05/24
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case, we should know at some point in the early hours of the morning. of course, if you are sir john curtice and all of his colleagues on the exit poll, you may know by around about lunchtime on polling day, but for those of us mere mortals, the exit poll will be announced at ten o�*clock on election night, that will give an indication, and then as the results come in, it will further confirm or indeed deny if the election is going along the lines of the exit poll. so as results started to come in, we should get a few from sunderland and newcastle within 45 minutes to an hour, but the bulk of results will come in from two i am, 3am onwards, and! come in from two i am, 3am onwards, and i imagine that relatively quickly, if it is a large labour victory, we will know. so i would estimate that by 3am on friday the 5th ofjuly, we will know. jae 5th ofjuly, we will know. joe twyman. _ 5th ofjuly, we will know. joe twyman. bill— 5th ofjuly, we will know. joe twyman, bill paxton, harry farley, lots of games to be played amongst those who like these things, but we will find out very soon come in
case, we should know at some point in the early hours of the morning. of course, if you are sir john curtice and all of his colleagues on the exit poll, you may know by around about lunchtime on polling day, but for those of us mere mortals, the exit poll will be announced at ten o�*clock on election night, that will give an indication, and then as the results come in, it will further confirm or indeed deny if the election is going along the lines of the exit poll. so as results started to...