i feel like he is televisionally allergic to us, and we have broken david chalian. now, joining us now is the columnist from the "boston globe" jackie kucinich, and i hope that you have not developed that allergy. and let's start in iowa. i have heard david chalian had pointed out this morning that when you are looking at trump's lead in iowa over the republican field, it is now the largest lead that any republican has held this close to the iowa caucuses. you can never say that someone is inevitable, but taking a look at the number, and what does this say about donald trump? what does this say about ron desantis, and what does it say about nikki haley right now? >> i think that it says a lot of things honestly, and it is that donald trump has a hold on the iowa voters and we have not seen it diminish, and you have nikki haley and ron desantis trying to make the electability argument, and they are more electable, and now you have state and national polls that show that donald trump could defeat president biden, and so that argument is kind of out of the window, and

i want to talk about this with david chalian. what does it tell us? >> as you noted, if you take a look at biden's approval in our brand new cnn poll, he's at 37% approval, 63% disapproval as he's about to turn the corner into his reelection year. look at this number over time. it's a knew america low, but he's bye-bye hanging out here for some time. he starts going down after the afghanistan withdrawal. s there was an uptick around the midterms where democrats performed better, but this entire year has been a downward slide to this new low of 37%. >> how does this kind of compare to others, who have serve d in the white house? >> take a look at his modern era predecessors. this was a their approval rating at this point in their presidency heading into their reelection year. just note here. he's at the bottom of this list at 37%. take a look at these three at the bottom. what do they have in common? they didn't win their reelection race. and so this is a real warning sign for joe biden. take a look here at some of the demographic groups. 72% approval

david chalian, thank you very much for all your analysis. john?spect is in custody after police say this person went on a killing spree in texas. six people now dead. extraordinary new audio from former israeli hostages held by hamas. their rage at the netanyahu government and new reporting on when the u.s. thinks the israeli offensive might end and a retreat from a u.s. member of congress after what she said or didn't say about sexual violence committed by hamas. >>> russian soldiers for human rights violations. >> also here are eli rosenbaum with the war crimes accountability team, christian lavest, for the accountability team and davidsonberg assistant director in charge of the fbi washington field office. on february 24th, 2022, russia commenced its full-scale, unprovoked invasion of ukraine. in the nearly two years since, we have all seen invading russian forces commit atrocities on the larger scale in any european armed conflict since the second world war. we have all heard the accounts of ukrainian civilians targeted and executed. ukrainian

david chalian, i'm going to start with you. excuse me, tomorrow night. what are your thoughts on all of it? particularly, the fact that it is now just four and how that changes the dynamic. >> i would just note there's one more element to what alayna was talking about, trump is not participating, what those four candidates have done to qualify for the debate stage is sign a pledge that they will support the republican nominee no matter what. donald trump has not done that. and his decision to not participate in the debates. the meaning of tomorrow night clearly all the attention is going to be focused on haley vs. desantis. these are the candidates moving into this, especially as we approach iowa, the final battle to become the clear alternative to donald trump. the question becomes donald trump is such a dominant figure s this a battle for second place, or is this a battle for somebody to emerge that actually can thwart donald trump from winning this nomination. we'll wait for the voters, but that's what hangs over the debate tomorrow night. >> donald t

david chalian standing by, and the sixth member of congress to be expelled from the house of congress. >> he walked by himself out of the chamber before the speaker gavelled the vote to the conclusion, and he got into that car, and drove away no longer a member of congress as he was just moments ago. and you heard the speaker instruct the clerk to notify the governor of new york of the vacancy in this seat. it is now, you know, the first time as you have said where you are not dealing with a trader from the confederacy or a criminal, and this is the first time that somebody has been expelled from congress who does not fit into one of those categories which is that notion of precedence that george santos was raising and some republicans were raising as an area of concern that it was setting a precedent. this is quite astonishing when you are thinking that a year ago when it was first reported by the "new york times" and others how much he had lied to the public about who he was, what he was claiming to be, and total and complete fraud, and then as you noted, the ethics report that show

david chalian, lauren fox, eva mcend and laura lopez with the pbs news hour. lauren, you are on capitol hill all day every day. i know you have encountered george santos many, many times, and have been following this vote. did it surprise you? >> i thought it was really interesting because it was kind of surprising some of the members who were in the room. i was in the chamber as the vote began. you saw members standing back, looking up at the board, counting the votes as they came in. it was going to be a close call. you had republican leadership saying behind closed doors and publicly that they had reservations and concerns about setting this precedent, ousting someone from congress, who hadn't been convicted of a crime. i think that was really part of the reason a that it felt like the momentum last night and this morning was going in santos' favor. but then again, you had so many members who were concerned about setting a precedent where you have someone who is accused of so many things in this ethics report and gets to remain in congress. there would have

>> and with us is political director david chalian and i want to go back to where we began this hour with all of the new warnings of the second trump presidency, and robert kagan writes that the country is on the clear path to dictatorship, and david frum says we could go into a crisis worth than the civil war, and authoritarian impulses, and so trump sees this and he plays out the response which is basically to say joe biden is the destroyer of democracy, and what do you see in that defense? >> well, add one more to the list that you went through, and it is not just observers, but donald trump himself has said that if he is elected to be the president, he is going to be using the justice department to go after his political enemies and this is a point of fact that he is going to be using a destable idzing agenda for american democracy and yet as what you know, he is going to be doing a political jujitsu to be taking the perceived weakness of his and trying to thrust it upon his opponents. we have seen it time and again, and we saw it in the business career, and we saw it throughout

david chalian, eva mcend and jonah goldberg of the dispatch. hi, everybody. had a little. nap last nugt. it's nice to be back. what was your take away of the debate? >> picking up an who you just played, one of the things when i watched the debate stage they kept asking myself was desantis was unloading the opposition research book on to nikki haley. he was trying to get out every single piece of research they had on her. which shows they see her as a real threat in this moment of the campaign, and i wonner if he's going to press that on the campaign trail in a way we haven't seen as much, or is he going to leave this to the high profile moment in the debate stalk. we'll see in iowa. he continued it in the fox news interview. notice he said he loves to tie the donor thing, the fact that she has some wall street donors and koch brothers to people who supported hillary clinton. this is while a superpac is up with an add. not one of us, not meaning conservative and tried and true conservative the way the base is in iowa that's going to show up to the caucuses. that's going to

david chalian, our thanks to you. kate. >> coming up for us, accused of planning a hamas-inspired terror attack in europe, three people now formally arrested appearing in a german court today. prosecutors are calling them long-standing members of hamas. what more we're learning about this thwarted terror plot is next. >>> mortgage rates are falling. gas prices falling. the dow near an all-time high. why are so many americans still sour on the economy? a new look at the numbers. >>> chuck schumer says get back to work keeping the session going next week over ukraine aid and border funding and border security. are talks actually picking up steam, or is this something else? we'll be back. >>> so, new this morning, israel approved the entry of humanitarian aid at a crossing at its border with gaza. this is in addition to the aid coming in through the rafah crossing. this comes as president biden's national security adviser, jake sullivan, who is currently in the region, urged a more precise targeting of hamas leaders in w

. >> cnn political director david chalian joins us now in person at the table. a good day. >> you're seeing a number of republicans step up and say this is an issue. bill barr saying this is a grievance that helps him. even dean phillips is out there saying this is wrong she shouldn't be thrown off the ballot. this feels like a win for donald trump. >> it does. we'll see if it is at the end of the day here. but it's a gimme for him in many ways. because it is different as elie was showing you, what the other courts have done related to this 14th amendment issue and ballot access and reminiscent of the criminal indictment that alvin brag brought in the stormy daniels case. and that's one that republicans no matter how reticent they are to donald trump's return to office, that's one they rallied to his cause and helped voters on the republican side rally to his cause as well in a substantial way and changed the calculus of the entire year. i think you're seeing that now with the colorado case it's an opportunity for those opposed to donald trump to say, this is so

. >> joining us is david chalian and political affiliate abby philip.ince we have been on the air, this has shifted from what could be george santos' last moments in congress and to house leadership who say they are going to vote to keep him in the house of representatives. why? precedent or the difference of going from the four-vote majority to three-vote majority? >> well, look, i can't get into their head, john, but i think it is the math. the sheer numbers of it all. they don't have a lot of wiggle room, and they have a huge agenda coming up. and remember, we are in a short term bill, and they have the pass the budgets in the coming weeks and months and that i have the fully fund the government, and they have to do it largely with a fully-united republican conference. every single vote matters and every single vote counts, and even george santos' vote counts. republican leadership is probably if you put them on truth serum, they don't want to deal with this, and they don't like george santos a lot given the headaches he has put them through, but at

david chalian, what do you make of the trump team's new focus on a robust, on-the-ground presence in iowa, even when he has a commanding lead in the polls there? >> this has been a clear difference all year long from what the trump campaign was doing in 2015, '16, making his first run for the oval office. i remember going to the iowa state fair in august of this year, and as i approached the gate there was a huge trump table taking everyone's name and email addresses, organizing. i did not see that eight years prior. so this is an operation that is very focused on organizing around an event, the iowa caucuses, that requires that level of organization, and they're doing so with sort of this pseudo incumbancy attached to trump. the recent "des moines register" poll showed among first-time caucusgoers, donald trump was winning 63% of them. he still seems to have ability to bring new people into the process. >> ron brownstein, trump's team is clearly projecting they'll clinch the nomination by mid-march. how likely do you think that is? >> well, on current trajectory, they're in very str

seung min kim, and cnn's david chalian and nancy cook and cnn's melanie zanona. good morning, thank you for joining us. and in this consequential and busy and newsy morning. seung min, you were at the white house every day and reporting about this debate in the democratic party to deal with the aid that congress is trying to approve for israel. there is some debate about whether conditions should be placed on this aid to israel. as you could see from the headliner on the screens, just divisions within the democratic party. you reported that the white house essentially told senators they were not in favor of conditions for israel. but we're also seeing this uptick in warnings to israel as we enter this new phase in the war. who do you make of the way their navigating this. >> if you talk to senate democrats, the more devastation out of gaza, the more concern that you're hearing and the more and more criticism hearing from them and more considerations about them potentially adding conditions on to israel aid that the biden administration, that congress largely at l