i'm proud of the staff of the ecb.'m very proud and honored to lead the institution >> we are now joined by the vice president of the ecb trade union ipso carlos, good morning good to see you today. first and foremost, i would like to understand what are the reasons, really, behind the opinion among staff that characterize lagarde's performance as poor or very poor >> good morning, silvia. thank you very much for having me today if i want to summarize the content of the survey, it is christine lagarde cannot do a good job as a president of the ecb. leading the ecb if she is not trusted by her staff we had a survey. it is not the first time we had one for president draghi and one for the previous president. we asked staff to look at those internal side and external side and give an overall rating the first thing that came across is the dissatisfaction from the employees from the internal decision making. 76% say they don't like that when you try to understand why, well, they tell you christine lagarde is not autocratic.

the ecb likely to keep rates unchanged.have stretched this theme of hire for longer, but the focus, the pulse of the markets, is on the cuts that will come in 2024. this will be a year of changing dynamics for the european central bank. it's not a question of if, but really when, and to answer that, we have to look at two things. one is the head of the ecb herself and that interview she did with us in davos. she mentioned that it is quote highly likely that there will be a move that points to june. but also the amount of pushback almost collectively for the governing council against anyone pricing in rate cuts that could come in q1. this central bank, it will be interesting to see whether the double down on this, that does not appear to be an a rush but does not want to be rushed by markets is the message so far. as always a balancing act which can be difficult between the inflation and the fact that this is a mandate, the only mandate they have, but also the expectations for the european economy in a year that could be dif

we are keeping a close eye on the exchange rate ahead of the ecb meeting.t is important to keep an eye on all of this we have news from the norwegian central bank and data from the ifo and we are monitoring the european central bank. >>> when it comes to the ifo data, it just comes hours before the meeting of the uecb. it is the first rate decision of the year i'm pleased to say we have annette joining us from fran frankfurt. i know the markets are not expecting any changes, but when will we get a timeline from the central bank with the potential rate cuts this year? >> reporter: the likelihood is close to zero that we are getting from the ecb of how rate cuts might look, because the crucial data point they are looking at is wage negotiations and wage developments. only with the data coming in, step by step, they actually will look at the data and assess whether rate cuts might be okay. they are very afraid of cutting too early because inflation could pick up again with wage rounds being quiet it has been pronounced in the euro area especially in countries

that answers the ecb oint i right now. that answers the ecb point i was _ right now.e ecb point i was going _ right now. that answers the ecb point i was going to _ right now. that answers the ecb point i was going to paint - right now. that answers the ecb point i was going to paint bringl right now. that answers the ecb i point i was going to paint bring up about back to the companies deciding to hang on to staff or even hiring staff, that sounds as if there is some forward planning there. do they have the cash flow to pay them? yes. have the cash flow to pay them? yes, the situation — have the cash flow to pay them? yes, the situation all _ have the cash flow to pay them? yes, the situation all in _ have the cash flow to pay them? yes, the situation all in all _ have the cash flow to pay them? yes, the situation all in all is _ have the cash flow to pay them? 1&1: the situation all in all is not bad in the eurozone. the economic background is not good but companies have built up cash reserves over recent years, which allows all of them or some of them to find suita

the ecb decision just seconds away.a statement, bunch of headlines. 30 minutes later year from christine lagarde. unchanged on the main refinancing rate. the facility unchanged as well, the depot rate 4% unchanged as anticipated. to determine to ensure inflation returns to 2% in a timely manner. no change to a whole lot from the ecb. >> a stunning decision to do nothing which is largely as expected. a rate level to make a substantial contribution to reaching 2% keeping the language you saw sufficiently restrictive thrown in there for good measure. they will stay there as long as they have to. we get all of the key hallmark words that are coming out. underlying inflation is continued so maybe we are getting just a touch of that dovishness that the markets can cling onto and price in. >> also the first couple of paragraphs from the ecb statement. the governing council decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged. it's previously assessed medium-term inflation outlook aside from an energy related upward base effe

the ecb keeps saying they are data dependent. if inflation data cooled very quickly, they will have an issue saying we are waiting for a forecast although inflation is already at that target. that is one of the things that speaks for april. it will be a fun thing to watch for all of us. kriti: a fun thing to watch for us. perhaps more painful for folks trying to trade. i do not envy their position. we thank you for joining us from frankfurt. we go from the monetary policy to the corporate one. lvmh sales rose at the end of last year as wealthy shoppers treated themselves to luxury goods and champagne. let's look at these numbers. caroline connan joins us to break it all down. what do we need to know about lvmh's story? caroline: it looks like a more glamorous story than expected. the luxury company has 75 brands. even if some may be suffering from softening demand as a group, lvmh did better than expected in the fourth quarter. if you are looking to details, pretty much every single division did better than expected. fashion and

what does the ecb do with that? say, we know the ultimate trend is down therefore we can ignore this, or is the data relevant? >> i think it is relevant to the extent that the ecb will be concerned that high-headline inflation could lead into the anchoring inflation expectations and higher wage growth. i think it is still relevant for the ecb, and i think that perhaps in part is behind there -- the communications they have been having, not just seeing domestic underlying pressures coming off. core inflation, services inflation, which we are expecting to come off. but in addition they also want to see wage growth coming off, and further out some governing councils -- counselors have talked about margins coming off. so, my view is that there is going to be news in this higher number in that the ecb will be concerned. could it lead to more entrenched inflationary pressures? it will want to see more evidence that these other prices are coming off too. katie: when it comes to the developed market's central banks on the t

i want to pick up the important move out of kre b withe ecb rrr. lot of sectors are seeing a big boost on the back of the announcement but as we were highlighting at the top of the show, the focus for european markets is still very much the flarn flashpoints we're seeing an improvement but it's below the line of contractions and expansions. >>> as for the stoxx 600, well, taking its cue from how the s&p has been doing, the s&p seeing its third record high in a row stoxx 600 this morning also starting off very strong footing, up 0.7% a lot of green on the board. >>> in terms of the boards, this is what we have. every single one of these is trading nicely in the green. the dax up 0.8%. siemens energy, huge jump today after a big surprise upward trend in their first quarter revenue. so that has taken the market positively for a change, given some of the price action we've seen with siemens energy over the last six months. s&p toward the top of the dax this morning, close to a record-high. zet cac 40 up 0.4%. a good rebound given how they were shaken d

that is the message from the ecb.a fed cut rates -- can the fed cut rates in the second half of the year? bilal: i struggle to see how they can with the election. they will want to stay away from the election cycle as much as possible. guy: if they have not cut by the end of the spring they will not cut at all? bilal: they will find it much harder to cut unless the economy is falling off a cliff. a lot of the downtrend inflation is occurring right now. as we go into the summer, inflation may start to rise back up again because of wage pressure. the longer they leave it the harder it will be for them to cut. alix: what are the chances inflation picks up again because of the elections? no matter who is in the white house, there will be more spending and that will re-accelerate growth and inflation. bilal: i think that is absolutely the biggest risk that will occur. once whoever gets into power, they will stimulate the economy in one form or the another. the economy is almost at full employment as well. one thing that ha

we had dovish comments from the ecb members the last couple days.xpectations of rate cuts is building up in the market. dollar/yen at 137.30. >>> let me take you to energy this morning. you can see the picture for today. we are .40 firmer. brent is up .30%. prices are continuing to climb over the course of the year and we are 8% firmer with the focus on geopolitical developments. also this morning, we had interesting news from saudi arabia. this with aramco announcing they will be shelving plans to increase crude production capacity from 12 million barrels per day to 13 million barrels per day. the move comes a few months after the world's biggest oil producer said it was progresses well with the multibillion dollar project to boost capacity. it will raise questions over the global oil demand outlook. interesting from aramco. they decided to suspend increased production in their oil production plan is a signal to markets. we don't have a full color on what prompted them to make the decision. it may have something to do with the expectation of how de

they are going to shape the expectations for ecb rate policy. at euro dollar currently at 1.09 level. cable at 1.26. weaker after rishi sunak says the u.k. election is going to be in the second half of 2024. it puts the spotlight on fiscal policy in the lead up to the election. fiscal giveaways, will it push back rate cut expectations for the bank of england? i should say the dollar is on track for its best week since september. finally a quick look to oil. brent crude trading at $78 per barrel edging higher, cementing the weekly gain as the tensions in the middle east ramp up and eclipse the signs of weakening demand from around the world. i did mention we have those eurozone inflation readings coming. we did have french and german cpi readings edging higher in december breaking a downward trend for european inflation. in the broader euro area, looks set to follow suit with numbers coming out later today. let's get more from oliver crook. what did we learn from the inflation figures from europe's two biggest economies? all of her: after eight m

the ecb has indicated it is worried about the wage story. you would have thought with these numbers being produced, there is a certain amount of strength on the labor side of the table demanding higher wages and you wonder whether or not that will continue a little bit longer. maybe the ecb does need to push out these rate cuts into the back half of the year, which obviously by extension has an impact on pricing. alix: is the 10-year overvalued? is the 10 year bond overvalued? joining us is bloomberg simon white and marcus ashworth of bloomberg opinion. if we look at that, maybe the boe where the ecb will have a harder time cutting than the fed. are we overvalued? marcus: how can we say this? i do not understand what bill gross is going on about. i think this year will be about rate cuts. we have had a nice selloff at the start of the year. yields have gone up. we have a lot of suppliers mentioned belgium and italy. i think yields are relatively valued at the moment -- relatively fairly valued until we see the fire underneath it from a fed c

, maybe the last mile will be harder for the ecb.e how that pricing comes, as we were speaking, those german bund futures already spiking off of the data you just broke down. it will be an interesting dynamic of how much of that continues going into the rest of the trading session. oliver crook, thank you for joining this morning. i want to stick with the fiscal story in europe and talk about hungary. debt payments doubling in the third quarter, putting the nation on track to surpass italy for the highest level of debt in the european union. interest payments ballooned to 7.1 billion dollars in the period between january to september, twice as much as the same period in 2020 two. hungary became one of it first emerging-market sovereigns to sell dollar bonds to meet its rising financing needs. we go over to the united states, where donald trump has asked the u.s. supreme court to overturn a ruling barring him from the presidential ballot in colorado. in an appeal yesterday, he urged the courts to declare that he did not take part in t

kriti: what does that mean in terms of the ecb thinking?the weakness underlining the economy it will prompt the ecb to front run the federal reserve. do you think christine lagarde is thinking that way? >> what they don't like is for their action to be put in the context of central banks because they make decisions for the eurozone and there is a lot from germany, france, other nations. what we've seen is that there was an effort to push back against aggressive rate cut that spy traders for easing in april and they have said the economy is slowing. we aren't seeing a slump or anything out of the ordinary, but inflation is still very uncertain. price pressures are uncertain and christine identified four different think she is watching. and a lot of that is wage growth and those figures will become available in the first and second quarters. how companies adjust profit margins, what energy prices do on the back of tensions in the middle east and supply of bottlenecks which we've seen becoming an issue for companies around the world. those thi

something the ecb could look through? drive inflation are cyclical. we talk about the basis of, energy prices. you can take any number, filter out special factors, and it is better than it looks, but core inflation is still high in europe. still a lot of concerns that the ecb that we have not quite cooled inflation. the one thing they will be terrified of is to have fought so hard against inflation and now to lose the battle at the last minute. the problem for the ecb is just a rate cut speculation can be a problem for them because it dries down yields. the higher reading will play into their hands. katie: it will be fascinating to see how that is received by the market. you set the last mile of inflation will be hard. if you think back to what we heard from jerome powell at last month's fed keeping -- fed meeting, he said he does not expect the last mile to be particularly different. how a zero to from the u.s. at this juncture? sonja: the basis for inflation in europe and in the u.s. is different. this has been the case

if we do get external supply shock, you will not see hikes by the fed or ecb.t may keep rates higher for longer, but it is more of a growth concern and growth falling faster than anticipated and faster rate of cuts as we are going into a global slowdown. >> interesting. let's see what will happen. an important year for monetary policy as well. thank you for your time. alim, thank you. chief strategist at efg. for more on the challenges facing the bank of japan, check out cnbc.com. plenty of coverage there. >>> coming up on the show, we will look ahead to today's market action stateside after a record-breaking session on monday. shipstation saves us so much time it makes it really easy and seamless pick an order print everything you need slap the label on ito the box and it's ready to go our cost for shipping, were cut in half just like that go to shipstation/tv and get 2 months free what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirku

the bank of japan and ecb with the policy meetings out this week. >>> on to the bond market. european yields to kickoff with here with yields moving higher across last week as central bankers pulled back with the expectations of the rate cuts coming into the market and how many are at play. anticipating 150 points cut in the u.s. could it be tapered down following the meeting in the ecb with christine lagarde revealing their thoughts when it comes to interest rate expectations. that will be keenly watched. to the u.s. yields. ten-year yield at 4.263. overall, on to the futures. they were higher overthealovera. we are still looking at earnings numbers with tesla and ibm and visa and mastercard coming out this week. >>> let's head over to the small and mid cap space. we have the global head of small and mid cap strategy at jpmorgan chase. let's get to the small cap. the russell 2000 managed to find its feet. it had a down look year for the last two years. what happened in the small cap space? why is the remaining unloved still unloved in that sector? >> i wish i had an answer.

ecb today said it is vital that work _ longer do.rk at _ longer do. ecb today said it is vital that work at headingleyl vital that work at headingley and beyond to make cricket more inclusive is but with divided opinions among members, the controversy is set to continue. dan rowan, bbc news. ronnie 0'sullivan is through to the semi—finals of the masters snooker for the fifteenth time, despite calling himself awful in his win over barry hawkins. it was a scrappy match at alexandra palace in london with both players making mistakes. this miss by hawkins when he was 50 points ahead in the ninth frame cost him dear as 0'sullivan cleared the table to win by six frames to three. shaun murphy survived a scare against jack lisowski. potting this black avoided losing a third frame in a row and the 2015 winner secured a 6—3 victory to set up a semi final against 0'sullivan on saturday rory mcilroy looked anything but rusty as he opened the new golf season with a flawless round of 62 at the inaugural dubai invitational. he sank nine birdies to

coming up, christine lagarde sense the ecb -- says the ecb will start rates. -- start cutting rates. ...whoa... you've got all kinds of bright ideas, that your customers need to know about. constant contact makes it easy. with everything from managing your social posts, and events, to email and sms marketing. constant contact delivers all the tools you need to help your business grow. get started today at constantcontact.com constant contact. helping the small stand tall. alix: stocks lower but well off the lows of the session. italian: it is all about economic data. we have stronger-than-expected retail sales, biggest jump in three months. industrial production higher than expected. u.s. homebuilding sentiment, highest since january. this comes as mortgage rates are moving down. it encourages buyers to buy more homes. this market is tight in terms of supply. in terms of price action, stocks lower, s&p 500 down by six basis points. moving to year yield up by 14 basis points. volatility is moving higher. the vix now up by almost 7%. overall, what it means for investors, let's look at

this is coming after a noncommittal ecb last thursday. that is not stopping the market from anticipating an accelerated pace of cuts through 2024. >>> speaking of other markets, this is the picture for u.s. yield curve. similar to european markets, we are seeing a rally in u.s. fixed income. the two-year note is down 0.34%. to recap the data from last week, the fed preferr red measu of inflation moved below 2.9%. core pce which strips out food and energy grew 2.9% in december versus a year ago. > signs of cooling inflation will lead the talk at the fed meeting. close to 50% of market participates are pricing in a rate cut in march. people are very much looking forward to hearing what will come out of the fed meeting in a couple of days time. we have kieran from wgmcio is here with me on the show. let's start off by taking stock from the two key data points from the u.s. last week. the first was that surprisingly high gdp print alongside the softer than expected pce number as well. many people are saying the immaculate disinflation scenari

but the ecb has responded by attacking the survey and finding fault in its methodology.icer at morningstar. good morning to you. i do remember when she was in charge of the imf, she was often criticised because she is not an economist and her background is politics. an economist and her background is olitics. ,, an economist and her background is olitics. ., ., is politics. your thoughts? yes, is politics. your thoughts? yes. we — is politics. your thoughts? yes. we are _ is politics. your thoughts? yes, we are always - is politics. your thoughts? i yes, we are always criticising central bankers. constant speculation about what they're going to do next and they never seem to do the right thing but this is fascinating insight into the inner workings of one of the central banks so christine lagarde, as you say, a background in law and then into politics and she is extremely accomplished as a first female finance minister and the first head of the imf female. as well offered job of guiding the economic path for people in europe and the relationships with central banks aroun

the ecb behind us.he fed come up next. >> the consensus around the table of the governing council was that it was premature to discuss rate cuts. in addition to that, i typically stand by my comments. we have to be data dependent. rather than any calendar, we are data-dependent. jonathan: lagarde reforms easing could start midyear. the fed decision to out next wednesday. writing we think the stage is set for a cut at the march meeting. lisa: paving the way for them. i have to say, christine lagarde sounded a lot like jay powell. she had an opportunity to push back. not so much. saying, christine lagarde could have pushed back or strongly against market pricing betting on more than two quarter point rate cuts by june but she decided not to stop -- that she decided not to is an important signal in itself. they are all systems go, ready to cut rates and the son of disinflation. jonathan: we call this passively dovish. lisa: that is why i am wearing a white jacket. she is just allowing them to do it. there

the ecb or federal reserve? of the sequence, both there will be no difference that is the picture. japan headline should be easing. that paints the picture that the boj has room to normalize policy. there should be more sustainable downtrend. >> one last question. what is your conviction trade in the short to medium-term? >> we're looking for the dollar to strengthen. the swiss franc has definitely overreacted to the position of liquidation, so i would say we like to buy the australian dollar. quotes thank you so much for joining us. let's tell you what we have coming up. it bullish start to the year for the industry and outlook later. we are monitoring further headlines. the data dump coming through for overall demand full year gdp numbers as opposed to retail sales. statistics in beijing. this is bloomberg. ♪ hey you, with the small business... ...whoa... you've got all kinds of bright ideas, that your customers need to know about. constant contact makes it easy. with everything from managing your social posts

i want to talk about the ecb for a moment. what is getting posted here? the market pricing is just not there. the markets pricing and 67 rate cuts. if you look at this pricing right here, these images have pulled back. they ease some of those bets. what does that tell you about the dislocations baked into the market? that brings you back to what is happening in the united states. you should pay attention to what the smart money shows. they are positive those rate cuts will happen in 2024. coming up, the edelman chief executive joining fasting -- francine lacqua on the post. that conversation coming up at night: 40 am. bill gross will speak inclusively to bloomberg at 8:00 p.m. here in london. stick with us. putting had. that is up next. ♪

ecb policymaker says it is too early for central banks to declare victory and gives clear gu guidanceor 2024. >> obviously, they shouldn't be higher than today. bearing major surprises, we look at the middle east and our next move will be capped this year. i will not comment on this season >>> the imf tells cnbc it is up to central banks to stick the landing when it comes to rate setting and warning against expectations for cuts. >> we know the markets are expecting central banks to cut aggressively i think that is a bit premature to make that conclusion. >>> standard charter ceo tells cnbc that they will not derail u.s. and china ties in the face of the u.s. election. >> there is a transaction in there some place to keep the economy on an even kiel. >>> p resounding victory for donald trump in iowa cements his position as frontrunner and ron desantis is a surprise second place ahead of nikki haley >> we want to thank the great people of iowa thank you. we love you. what a turnout what a crowd i really think this is time now for everybody, our country, to come together. >>> the new hi

in my view it would take longer than most people expect to see the ecb cutting rates.s economy which has remained remarkably resilient in the face of its high interest rates but many european economies are in a pretty precarious situation, the ecb will undoubtably be keeping a forensic eye on what is happening in germany, the biggest economy, because it is at risk of, if not already in, recession. are there others in a vulnerable position, do you think? i think germany is the weak spot right now in the eurozone. and so we should expect the german economy to continue to be sluggish for a while. but there are some leading indicators already pointing to some recovery. probably won't happen before the second quarter this year and probably will actually move very gradually. but the immediate outlook is improving, in my view. 0k. bbc news, bringing you different stories from across the uk. - i bent down, he put his feet on my shoulders and gave me a kiss. i thought, this dog needs to come home. he'd been there nine years so it was time he had may be the next three or four ye

the ecb pivoting in the next few months will drive those currencies lower.he other way to think about this is, the dollar picture is confusing. let's take that out of the equation and look at some relative value place. something in that space would be something like the norwegian crown appreciating relative to the swedish krona. they have a shift in fx policy almost and a bit more of a hawkish narrative in norway. katie: so you have to get a little bit exotic here, given how messy the dollar is. we don't have much time left with you, but what is the biggest risk in your view? what could upset the apple cart when it comes to your base case? dominic: i think the biggest upset for the market right now is if you get any kind of uptick on inflation. the market is so bought into this goldilocks, soft landing scenario, and there are lots of things that could trip that up. look at what is happening in the middle east. look in terms of shipping and the potential upside i could have two supply-side costs. any kind of uptick on inflation i think would be very difficult

the ecb is coming up tomorrow.ecb will move before the federal reserve. the third hour of "bloomberg surveillance" is next. >> we are in a soft landing right now, looking at the data. the data look strong. >> even if the activity side of the economy is doing well, as it is, it is really the deceleration in inflation. >> it is not that easy to get inflation down that quickly. >> as we get into this year, i think stepping back, we will see what kind of economy we have. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" with lisa abramovitz, and annmarie hordern. the s&p 500 positive again after four days of gains, three consecutive all-time highs. the data in the last week has been good. retail sales hot. consumer confidence picking up. and then restart the earnings for tech. netflix knocking it out of the park. lisa: this is the kicker to the handwringing over if it's a problem, doesn't make the market more fragile that the ma

the ecb today said it is vital the — have had enough. work at headingley - it is vital the work at headingley and beyond to make cricket more inclusive continued. with the divisive takeover voted on the controversy is set to continue. footage has emerged of an electric double—decker bus which caught fire in wimbledon this morning during rush hour. transport for london said the bus was quickly evacuated, and the met police said no injuries were reported. an investigation will take place to find out what caused the fire. america's federal aviation administration has announced it is putting boeing under investigation over quality control. it comes after an unused cabin door blew out of an alaska airlines flight last week — leaving a gaping hole in the side of the fuselage. it happened minutes after take off, and it's thought the incident could have been far worse had it happened further into the flight. the former manager of the england men's football team sven—goran eriksson has revealed he has at bestjust a year to live after being diagno

to see dollar weakness really anticipated on rate cuts by the federal reserve, what happens if the ecbfirst? is that dislocation the market has to catch up to or that the market is ready or position for? that will be a big thing we watch. brent crude trading at 80 handle. you continue to watch brent crude in terms of the margin of movement, higher by 2/10 of 1%. it is only a move. i would encourage our global audience to pay attention to the round number as we talk about simply whether or not these geopolitical tensions have a real readthrough into those commodity markets as of now. a lot of people maybe don't want exposure through the commodity target. i'm talking about macro traders who hopped into the oil market to say this is the inflation hedge. that's go around the hedge. i want to bring asia boards up and talk about the market reaction you are seeing specifically in china. the chinese equity market is ripping and roaring this morning. a lot has to do without policy coming at 287 billion dollars of potential stimulus. you are seeing strength in the chinese offshore yuan. in the m

the ecb only mandates price stability. we can have weaker numbers. pmi can be weak, but we need to see big changes in the ecb monetary policy. it will be the inflation prints. as we are seeing both ecb targets, we think that is too early to anticipate that from the european side. i think that is something to really have in mind when you invest in europe. focusing more on inflation data rather than cyclical data. >> based off that, when you look at the different boards in europe, which countries are more attractive at this stage? let's look at germany versus france for instance. does any look positive for 2024? >> well, it's a difficult call. i think that's too difficult to call with the sectors. you mention two markets. the cac 40 on one side and the dax on the other. you have to see sector bias on one side and on the other side, you see the automotive sector which are exposed to the china story. i think, overall, the index that will be the most under pressure this year could be italy. you know, the ftse mib has done a fantastic year in 2023 being th

the ecb officials, temping down expectations of more rapid rate cuts. that is very much a trajectory that markets have been trading on after the holiday monday. not a leap from wall street. but from europe, soft numbers, the nikkei future, looking stronger. 1.6% higher. japanese equities, again, probably the outperformer in an otherwise session that could see risk appetite seeing a struggle. belle: not focus, still on japan over the course of this year, really strong start for japanese equities. in the u.s., the markets were shut on monday. this is the start of trading for futures following the martin luther king holiday. pretty muted so far. not a lot of action. liquidities, playing into it. we heard from the ecb, pivotal over the last session, starting to temper down expectations around rate cuts. we are still in the midst of the earnings season, at the start of it in the u.s., but results are due tuesday for the fourth quarter, as more banks, the likes of goldman sachs, goldman stanley as well are on their way. certainly wants to be watching. oil pri

sarah on the difference between the ecb and the federal reserve. then i think it was yesterday the fed minutes were fine tuning the message after we hear from chairman powell. lisa: what does that mean? you put the toothpaste back in the tube, can we say no. can we say how much of a cover jay powell has given to christine lagarde. she could say nothing and be looked at as the winner after jay powell came out with a message. all she had to do was adhere to the vague message that nobody believed in the euro would get a boost and they would have some sort of lack of drama. tom: i do think that is a convenience that we have that governor bailey is on the red phone talking to jerome powell in washington. but, lagarde is completely distracted of manufacturing in germany and the productivity of germany which is a change then when it was five to seven years ago. that looms a lot larger and then historic inflation battle as well. jonathan: the business model of the country, you mentioned it. could we rethink passive in europe about how to best to move forwa

the ecb divisions are appearing before policymakers. governing council member says loosening could come at any point this year. the comments come just days after christine lagarde said there was consensus at last week's meeting and that it was premature to discuss cuts. let's get back to the corporate earnings story. speaking to me earlier, they also spoke about the recent troubles at boeing. he said the carrier plans to continue working with the company. >> i was in seattle couple books ago. i met this managing team. we were reasonably comfortable that we will get them there for the summer. that means that next year we will fly somewhere close. i am pleased there are 50 aircraft in the fleet. >> all right, let's bring in the global aviation reporter who is coming to us out of dubai. how much concern is there? they have lowered their guidance . not hugely but lower than expected. >> they look to assess how demand is playing out. the fourth quarter is typically the weakest quarter for ryanair which makes most of their money during the pe

and ecb. >> absolutely. it does look more like a soft landing. we got cpi and s&p ppi's showing the market is headed in that direction and the economy is headed in that direction. at the same time, it is good for equities but may not be so good for, let's say, bond markets. it will not be so good for the dollar, but it will be good for asian currencies. asian currencies might get an leg higher as long as data continues to show that the economies are holding up, that growth is still strong. it is actually quite a good scenario where you have this soft landing, this goldilocks scenario filtering through. that of course will be positive for risk assets, and of course, a little putting the dollar on the back foot. when we see the data come through tonight from the u.s., gdp needs to be on the strong side and pce should be softer as well. yvonne: thank you, joining us out of singapore. coming up, we speak with pwc's asia pacific and china chair on the economic recovery and their new survey on the impact of ai on financial services. plus, later this ho

services inflation is slowing but what the ecb wants to see is that the ecb wants to see is that theult in that. hence why we do think they will begin to cut rates in june. laterthan they will begin to cut rates in june. later than what market price but essentially 25 basis points from june onwards until the end of the year.— points from june onwards until the end of the year. thank you. interesting _ the end of the year. thank you. interesting to _ the end of the year. thank you. interesting to get _ the end of the year. thank you. interesting to get your - the end of the year. thank you. interesting to get your take i the end of the year. thank you. interesting to get your take on | interesting to get your take on that. now, are you feeling the chill? if you are watching here in the uk or northern europe, the temperature has dropped and the cold is here for some time with snow and ice forecast for some areas. so many of us are boosting the central heating to keep warm and demand for gas is rising, something analysts have warned could lead to a spike in energy prices. so, what is th

the ecb holds its first monetary policy meeting of 2024 on thursday.hristine lagarde told us a demo so that the european central bank will cut rates later this year. decisions we will be watching in canada, sri lanka and malaysia. other economic data to note as well, as we have been discussing we get china's loan crime rates in the u.s. from the preferred inflation measure on friday. as well as gdp figures. netflix and tesla are expected to report record corporate revenues, tesla's profitability continues to be hit by vehicle price cuts and watch earnings from asml and sk hynix lead optimism for the global chip industry. that is the week ahead. annabelle: let us stick with that outlook for tech because our next guest says that the sector, the magnificent seven, both very volatile in the early weeks of 2024. and very eventful year, joining us is rebecca, president of wolster wealth management. the opportunities are becoming tougher to find now? >> absolutely, i think the investors going into 2024 were ahead of it and expecting her to 50 basis point cuts

inflation has come down sharply but the ecb has been clear that talk of cuts is premature. you. it has been a tough week for christine nygaard, she has not had the headlines she want, let's think about today and what she is likely to say?— about today and what she is likel to sa ? ~' , , likely to say? the key message from the european _ likely to say? the key message from the european central - likely to say? the key message i from the european central bank, we are approaching the point when they will start talking about easing policy, cutting interest rates and trying to help the economy start to recover because some of the indicators around growth do suggest economy may be in recession already, although inflation is still a little bit too elevated for them to ease today. that does look like it is coming in the next few months. is coming in the next few months-— is coming in the next few months. , ., ~ , months. so you think it will be in the next _ months. so you think it will be in the next few _ months. so you think it will be in the next few months - months. so you th

i have heard expressed the concern that is out there is christine look guard, the president of the ecbid if we are to draw lessons from history, the way he ran the first four years of his mante, it's clearly a threat. there will be others that privately share that view and they will worry that in a second term, the restraints that might have been there the first time around will be removed. >> yes, i had an interesting conversation with senator coonz who you have spoken to many times who is cochair of biden's reelection campaign and very close to president biden and he said that there has not been a single conversation with a world leader or a global foreign secretary in the last three years in which at some point he has not been asked this question, is it really possible that america could reelect donald trump? he said and i have to tell them, yes, it is possible. i thought christine look guard's comments were interesting. she stuck her neck out in public in a way that may be is considered indiscreet. she is certainly not a world leader, she is not running a country. she would probabl

the big mist price is actually the ecb. >> absolutely. the end of last year, we are looking at the missed pricing, that is where those have been far bigger. i look at the longer-term medium and structural issues with respect to the auto manufacturing sector, the second half of the year especially after, for example. i think these are structural issues europe needs to look at and on top of that you got potential fiscal infringement as well. >> bitcoin moments ago turning negative after being 6% higher. gdp tomorrow, the u.k. is kind of fumbling along, doing ok, not doing terribly. it is a fine balance. does that give the bank of england time to wait and see? like it has still got inflation problem, the growth story is not terrible. does it give it the opportunity to say we will wait until we see more convincing data at inflation is softer, significantly softer before we pull the trigger on a rate cut? >> they can wait until q3, certainly the second half of the year and also the housing market starting to pick up as well and setting to feat

it's worth remembering, though, the ecb is releasing new economic forecasts in march, and that couldto make changes to the rates in april. but let's see how this will unfold for the time being, though. the majority of market players i expect changing more likely inside. >> lastly boeing has become really an embattled company the last few weeks, and southwest airlines taking boeing 737 maxes out of their fleet plans this year. give us the latest what is going on here with boeing? what can they do to change this? >> so when it comes to the announcement from the southwest airlines they're saying that the reason why they're moving ahead with essentially not using this fleet is because of certification delays. but when you look at the story more broadly we're just seeing southwest being the latest of the airlines in the united states to announce similar changes. in essence, we had similar announcements from other airlines throughout the week really. and all of this is happening after that january 5th incident that involved one of the boeing planes, the 737 max 9 where one of the panels bl

we go to the ecb.panish central bank's chief saying the euro area probably failed to grow in the final three months of last year. popple hernandez saying all -- pablo hernandez saying the euro area stagnated but he was more upbeat than his vice president who said the bloc is likely to be in a shallow recession. the governor of the bank of england meanwhile has played down concerns about the effect of higher interest rates on household as well as businesses. andrew bailey was giving evidence to parliament's treasury committee on the bank's financial stability report >> we have not seen a pronounced increase in employment. that is relevant because historically one of the drivers, if you analyze it statistically, one of the drivers of loan losses particularly in the mortgage market is unemployment. the second one is associated with, last year we saw an increase, 2% increase in household real incomes. both of those things support overall conditions and financial stability. kriti: joining us for more analys

the ecb is not a snooze.sident lagarde, according to several reports criticized a staff union survey marking the halfway point of a rate year term. a slight majority of respondents assessor presidency as either poor or very poor. criticized for spending too much time on topics unrelated to monetary policy and going too frequently into the political domain. lisa: what is shocking is how much it diverged from her predecessors when there was more support. her comments on trump making people dislike her. are her political forays making people feel like she's not represent in the nuts and bolts of economic theory? i don't know the answer but the survey speaks for itself. jonathan: there might be a pay dispute in the last couple of years that may be poisoned the water between the top of the ecb and the staff level. i will say this. my view is if you survey the governing council, the national central bank governors and the executive board of what they think of lagarde versus the previous governing council underneath

we will see how it plays out, will the ecb cut sooner? shanghai crude, oil is set for the best week since october. geopolitical risks have seen oil prices getting a better bid today. $82 and 108.45 for the euro-dollar. china, we talked about hitting the pause button as we recalibrate what this week was, but were heading into one of the best weeks for msci china. mixed picture across equities. jakarta on the downside. it is not a clear picture given what you are seeing. david: we started out with bank of japan. the rescue thing in between with china repricing and overnight, gdp numbers came out of nowhere. 4.1%. let's bring in a guest to help us digest what is most important. the head of investment strategy. good morning. what took up the most headspace this week? >> i wish i knew. the divergent story in global markets is playing out. we have been highlighting that if any major economy can come close to pulling off and immaculate disinflation macro theme it would be the u.s. and gdp numbers suggested as much. we are watching china closely

the ecb president joining us. don't miss that conversation. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ kriti: welcome back to daybreak europe. quick check on the asian markets. very accelerating selloff when it comes to the hang seng index. extending losses for the most since 2022. 4% decline on the index. 5% earlier in the session although it pared back that initial loss. what's important to keep in mind is that retail sales not helping this particular region. it speaks to the idea that as you look at the new home price data that we got, you are starting to see this idea that even though china is pumping stimulus after stimulus, using a variety of tools to direct intervention is not really stemming the losses. to see that weakness across 70 cities in the world's second-largest economy speaks to that decline. certainly something we will be keeping a very close eye on. it has global repercussions, especially when it comes to china and the readthrough into the global economy and the g10 story but also the front tier market as well. that comes alongside the inflationa

this as we weigh the prospects of an april cut for the ecb.istine lagarde saying she continues to watch wage data. that comes out after the april meeting. the trajectory of inflation has been grinding lower across the euro zone. data out later today we'll build the picture for us. from the ecb to jay powell, the fed's decision arguably is a less interesting decision because the consensus is there will be no change. it is more interesting to focus on the press conference and whether he pushes back on market pricing. it has faded around the potential for a march cut area the language of jay powell in focus for us later. and boeing reporting their earnings. of course the spotlight will be on anything the executives say around the 737 max 9, when they expect those aircraft to be back in the air and how they are addressing safety concerns. santander beats with net income better than expected. this ♪ >> good morning, this is daybreak euro. if i am tom mackenzie. misery for chinese markets as out put contracts. the fed later today has rate projection

there's no way the fed will use before the ecb does. europe is in a recession basically already.hat rate will be a little bit higher. the dollar will be stronger than their currency. guy: the euro zone also has higher inflation. seeing the replacing around upside. the higher inflation then anticipated. christine lagarde talking about pushing back expectations to the summer. a sort of canceling out process. a lot of chat in the euro zone about rate cuts. i'm wondering what else is moving these markets at the moment. i'm wondering whether it is the donald trump victory in iowa? bruce: it is a long way to november 5. if you are president biden or donald trump, we will see how that plays out. it is a long way away. the smart investor has to start giving consideration to a trump victory based on what they saw in iowa. as much as you have to give consideration to biden being reelected, either one could happen. probably talking about what the playbook is, if trump is elected. alix: it years ago isn't going to cut it. bruce: that doesn't quite cut it, i agree with you. has the man really

we do see the ecb cutting rates quite consistently.well, cutting rates from may. they are probably on balance, but equally, we think growth will be ok. i think that interest rates will be higher at the end of this cycle than they were at the end of last cycle, so i do not feel the backdrop is that bad. they are buying back shares and dividends. they are very good cash flows at the moment. jonathan: is there an underlying currency call that you are making alongside this? >> it is interesting. europe often does quite well with euro rises. it sounds because european companies are glibly exposed. if the euro is rising, that could -- that should make it more tricky them up of the year of rising is normally a good signal that europe is not about to break up. so, we do have the euro rising and we had it rising to about 112. it is 109 at the moment. so a rise in the euro. i think we are about 127 at the moment. but this, that reflects the fact that global growth will be ok. we think u.s. interest rates are also peeking and we will see rates fr

if the fed starts cutting aggressively, what does that mean for the ecb?policy for the u.s. and we are looking at what the fed is doing, but we have our own story. this is different. >> how do you see inflation behaving in the next few months? will it be volatile or trajectory to the downside? >> it looks like it is dependent on so many aspects. what i see is that inflation might come down over the next six months with some volatile numbers. i think the december number gave us the indication that it could be something that could happen in the first three months and then looks like it gives us the indication that inflation might come down. as i said at the beginning of the interview, we will see half of the inflation compared to 2023. >> what is your biggest concern in the next few months? all of this seems like a lot of uncertainty out there. >> on the monetary policy side, we achieved a lot. we gave the indication that we are committed to bringing inflation down to our target. i think this is really bringing volatility to the market and it is also about t

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