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May 27, 2024
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the ecb looks to _ growth and inflation. it could. the ecb looks to the _ growth and inflation. it could. the ecb looks to the americans - growth and inflation. it could. the ecb looks to the americans to - growth and inflation. it could. the| ecb looks to the americans to lead rather than say, actually, we can do something for ourselves. i think they are being a bit weak over this. they can cut those rates quite straightforwardly. that would have a better impact, especially in terms of investment, and would want companies going up and spending. that is what you are seeing at the moment, a lot more companies holding back on their expenditure. a little improvement in that could go a long way to see movements in the growth of the economy, which we are seeing — it is tiny amount. you want to get a stage where you are dealing with half a percent growth. if you can do that within the next six months then you see some sensible changes. for now, thanks very much. africa faces its worst debt crisis in a generation, according to the charity christian aid. a majority of african nations
the ecb looks to _ growth and inflation. it could. the ecb looks to the _ growth and inflation. it could. the ecb looks to the americans - growth and inflation. it could. the ecb looks to the americans to - growth and inflation. it could. the| ecb looks to the americans to lead rather than say, actually, we can do something for ourselves. i think they are being a bit weak over this. they can cut those rates quite straightforwardly. that would have a better impact, especially in terms of...
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May 28, 2024
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next week's meeting from the ecb. that is good news for european equities >> let's stay with the equities space. you have an interesting call with the european equities against u.s. equities. can you elaborate? >> i think in the u.s. equities, there is a lot of positive stories, but they are fully valued in terms of looking at valuations price earnings ratio or relative outlook versus bonds we think that the slowing of the economy, which we're seeing through the summer, will not benefit the u.s. equity market it will not really compel markets with more rate cuts. we will see a choppy environment. the re-rating of the ecb easing cycle should see european equities out performing in the rest of the year. >> european equities, potentially out perform equities mike, can i challenge you on the valuation argument recently, there was analysis in the ft we live in a different time. we have more growth stocks in the u.s. they warrant higher valuations what do you make of this >> if you take away the magnificent seven, you have
next week's meeting from the ecb. that is good news for european equities >> let's stay with the equities space. you have an interesting call with the european equities against u.s. equities. can you elaborate? >> i think in the u.s. equities, there is a lot of positive stories, but they are fully valued in terms of looking at valuations price earnings ratio or relative outlook versus bonds we think that the slowing of the economy, which we're seeing through the summer, will not...
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May 28, 2024
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tom: we are also getting lines from the ecb as well. most recently the last few minutes, talking about asset purchases from the european central bank, the targeted long-term refinancing operations. saying asset purchase should remain part of the talk for the ecb, but also saying central banks must be careful when the use qe outside of crises. this coming from suggestions that july should not be taken off the table in terms of rate cuts. a more hawkish member of the ecb suggesting july should be taken off. there is dispute in terms of the sequencing of cuts from the ecb. where do we stand? do we have more clarity? the sequencing question seems to be live for the ecb. mary: yeah, it is very clear from a lot of the comments from the ecb that there's a lot of discussion and there's a lot of different converging -- diverging opinions on where rates should be headed and what is the trajectory of rates going forward. what villeroy mentioned, we could see consecutive rate cuts which would be very positive for european stocks, especially at a ti
tom: we are also getting lines from the ecb as well. most recently the last few minutes, talking about asset purchases from the european central bank, the targeted long-term refinancing operations. saying asset purchase should remain part of the talk for the ecb, but also saying central banks must be careful when the use qe outside of crises. this coming from suggestions that july should not be taken off the table in terms of rate cuts. a more hawkish member of the ecb suggesting july should be...
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May 30, 2024
05/24
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that's in keeping with what the ecb is trying to do. >> where does it lead the ecb for its meeting? oliver: you know it's a june cut and that is the question, that's for the debate gets interesting. we've had commentary from ecb members. let's talk with the president of the bank who spoke to us earlier this week. have a listen. >> what we wrote the last two years is that we follow the meeting to meeting here understanding and that should still be the case. if there's a rate cut in june, we have to wait until maybe september, july. it's too early to speak of it. oliver: you have him saying basically, september is maybe when you see the next cut. that see the commentary from the other councilmembers throughout the week, basically saying there are no automatic moves on the table, everything goes meeting to meeting, phillip laying saying we need to be restrictive and the cuts will be determined by the data, something very similar. the only devon the room over the last couple of days is coming out of france. do not rule out a july cut. overall for the ecb, the inflation picture is coming
that's in keeping with what the ecb is trying to do. >> where does it lead the ecb for its meeting? oliver: you know it's a june cut and that is the question, that's for the debate gets interesting. we've had commentary from ecb members. let's talk with the president of the bank who spoke to us earlier this week. have a listen. >> what we wrote the last two years is that we follow the meeting to meeting here understanding and that should still be the case. if there's a rate cut in...
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May 22, 2024
05/24
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i think that if the ecb were to cut, it looks like the foregone conclusion. one in september and one of december to alternate meetings. a lot of that will depend on what the fed does with its policy and i think of the fed is going to hold rates this year, then i would see to rate cuts possible from the ecb. if the fed were able to cut rates at least once, then i think it's possible that we get three rate cuts from the ecb. tom: cross asset strategist with our markets live team. some of the caveats around the inflation story of the u.k., you could get to two, possibly three cuts coming from the ecb. we are going to be speaking with a u.k. chatter's jazz shadow chief secretary -- u.k.'s shadow chief secretary. that's just after 7:00 a.m. london time. to dealmaking or a lack of dealmaking. redhead crossing the terminal, snyder electric saying talks with bentley systems have ended. snyder electric is a maker of electric components, things like chargers for cars, and they were in talks with bentley systems in the u.s., which is a software integration company, but
i think that if the ecb were to cut, it looks like the foregone conclusion. one in september and one of december to alternate meetings. a lot of that will depend on what the fed does with its policy and i think of the fed is going to hold rates this year, then i would see to rate cuts possible from the ecb. if the fed were able to cut rates at least once, then i think it's possible that we get three rate cuts from the ecb. tom: cross asset strategist with our markets live team. some of the...
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May 17, 2024
05/24
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the ecb talks about it. you can say that the picture is different, but they are impacted by the u.s. annmarie: the fed dominates and leads the path but the disinflation story is just not they are the same way it is in europe, so europe needs to work internally in an idiosyncratic way. jonathan: it's not the start point, june potentially, does it shake and the limits of how far they can go? dani: i think we might hear more language like saying that we could cut now but we need to wait because the fed has cut their cycle? jonathan: second hour of "surveillance," coming up left. -- next. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ when i was your age, we never had anything like this. what? wifi? wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. the basement. so i can finally throw that party... and invite shannon barnes. dream do come true. xfinity gives you reliable wifi with wall-to-wall coverage on all your devices, even when everyone is online. maybe we'll even get married one day. i wonder what i will
the ecb talks about it. you can say that the picture is different, but they are impacted by the u.s. annmarie: the fed dominates and leads the path but the disinflation story is just not they are the same way it is in europe, so europe needs to work internally in an idiosyncratic way. jonathan: it's not the start point, june potentially, does it shake and the limits of how far they can go? dani: i think we might hear more language like saying that we could cut now but we need to wait because...
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May 2, 2024
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fed will do and ecb will do in june. are more people putting more money in the equity market or is the pull too attractive? >> i think the long end is data depe dependent. we don't know what the fed will do you have a significant amount of risk i think as long as high as it is in the u.s., but cash is a clear alternative to the market. you can put your money in the market and get 5% return look, i do believe earnings are still something which makes the case for equities in the fairly tricky environment we do believe earnings are delivering and rate hikes are delivering in the u.s. and maybe we can go back to the top as we enter the tricky time of the year sell in may and go away. i'm pushing clients to be more cautious and not rushing to buy the dip. >> globally, we have seen a shift to the cyclical trade. moving money to industrials and materials and non-cyclical trade in the united states do you expect that trade to continue >> i think it should be more about the data the data is slowing in the u.s we are seeing the ti
fed will do and ecb will do in june. are more people putting more money in the equity market or is the pull too attractive? >> i think the long end is data depe dependent. we don't know what the fed will do you have a significant amount of risk i think as long as high as it is in the u.s., but cash is a clear alternative to the market. you can put your money in the market and get 5% return look, i do believe earnings are still something which makes the case for equities in the fairly...
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May 27, 2024
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ecb executive board member says the time of right for a hike. speaking at the economy faster, he said any move towards afterwords will be "data dependent." he said there are conditions for a change in monetary policy at the june 6 meeting. it is not just the doves we have been speaking to. have been speaking exclusively to the eunice bank president. he says they should wait until september for any subsequent rate cuts. >> my expectation is that there is a flattening of the wage data that is occurring over the next month so i believe that some relief coming was from the data set but nevertheless, which data are still strong so we have to keep our vigilance when it comes to the next rate decision. >> it sounds like it's not concerning you that much. we are expecting inflation to come up in germany, spain, france, the euro zone, to slow its descent. does that not concern you? >> has a central banker, you are always concerned but i see the trend is the more important issue. over the last couple months, inflation rates came down so what i expect for
ecb executive board member says the time of right for a hike. speaking at the economy faster, he said any move towards afterwords will be "data dependent." he said there are conditions for a change in monetary policy at the june 6 meeting. it is not just the doves we have been speaking to. have been speaking exclusively to the eunice bank president. he says they should wait until september for any subsequent rate cuts. >> my expectation is that there is a flattening of the wage...
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May 2, 2024
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the ecb an official saying june is very likely. can the ecb and boe really diverge from this federal reserve? >> we heard from some extent, not to a great extent. we are now expecting that both the ecb and the bank of england will cut before the fed does. we heard yesterday in powell statement, and he's right to point this out, that there is less room to wait in the euro zone in the u.k. because of a much weaker growth outlook. and he's absolutely right to point that out. that inflation dynamics are different. the energy shock is working itself out. that was always less of a factor in the u.s. the inflation picture is different across the atlantic on the grote -- growth outlook is weaker, which gives the central banks less of a luxury of waiting to see what inflation does over a longer time. they can't diverge too much. i think they might be keeping in mind what the fed is doing with the policy in europe and in the u.k. which is more so than they have let on. we've heard statements -- in europe we have heard various statements. som
the ecb an official saying june is very likely. can the ecb and boe really diverge from this federal reserve? >> we heard from some extent, not to a great extent. we are now expecting that both the ecb and the bank of england will cut before the fed does. we heard yesterday in powell statement, and he's right to point this out, that there is less room to wait in the euro zone in the u.k. because of a much weaker growth outlook. and he's absolutely right to point that out. that inflation...
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May 10, 2024
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do you compare to the ecb? >> the ecb is a little more cognizant on energy prices with the euro being reasonably weaker based on what the ecb has been saying overall, they should judge that. the key is the domestic economy. in europe, the inflation pressure has largely been the increase in energy prices. in the u.s., it has been pure demand that's why market participants are pricing in european central banks to cut rates before the fed. the strength of the u.s. economy and you can argue how strong it is given with the claims yesterday and pmi being softer nevertheless, it will be an important variable it is hard to tell compared to the boe and ecb what matters more with oil prices it is important to be cognizant. if you look at gas price notice u the u.s. >> thank you for joining us here by the way, you can see the rest of steve's interview on cnbc.com a lot of great questions by steve and colorful language. eating your own hand >>> coming up on the show, chinese ev maker zeekr super charges the u.s. ipo we wil
do you compare to the ecb? >> the ecb is a little more cognizant on energy prices with the euro being reasonably weaker based on what the ecb has been saying overall, they should judge that. the key is the domestic economy. in europe, the inflation pressure has largely been the increase in energy prices. in the u.s., it has been pure demand that's why market participants are pricing in european central banks to cut rates before the fed. the strength of the u.s. economy and you can argue...
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May 31, 2024
05/24
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the ecb is committed to cutting rates in june. they will do it even though the inflation data we got recently does not really justify them to cut rates in june. the question becomes what happened -- what happens after that. what really dictates the price action in the bond market is the divergent between the ecb in the fed. that will keep rates between the u.s. and europe diverging as well. the fed will stay on hold for the remainder of the year and the ecb will be biased towards cutting rates. lisa: we came into this week saying it was kind of going to be a sleepy week. next week will be actually massive when it comes to both the data, the payrolls, the ecb. jonathan: you are excited about next week. lisa: i am excited. i want to know what you are most excited about. the ism data, manufacturing and services. subadra: i will start with jolts. if you look at the job openings, do you want to see the head toward that pre-pandemic level relative to the number of unemployed. that's a very important first metric on jobs. i would be look
the ecb is committed to cutting rates in june. they will do it even though the inflation data we got recently does not really justify them to cut rates in june. the question becomes what happened -- what happens after that. what really dictates the price action in the bond market is the divergent between the ecb in the fed. that will keep rates between the u.s. and europe diverging as well. the fed will stay on hold for the remainder of the year and the ecb will be biased towards cutting rates....
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May 9, 2024
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points wunsch says keeping rates too tight for too long now is a risk and robert holzmann says the ecb decisions would be influenced by the fed. he described the u.s. central bank as the gorilla in the room. he said there is no reason to cut too quickly after the likely cut in june. flagging the forecast at the september and december meetings. after the decision yesterday, we saw the sweden bank looking to a move the boe is expected to hold steady with investors looking to hold signals with the timing of the first cut. markets are split and close to even on the june cut with a 75% chance of the first cut by the end of its august meeting according to lseg data markets are pricing in 50 basis points of cuts, but economists are going further projecting 10 basis points of easing we have matthew from bnp with us now. >> good morning. >> what else are you expecting from governor andrew bailey? hawkish or dovish? >> we think the bank of england is gaining confidence that disinflation is under way. we think that will come in the comments from the press conference we don't expect them to put it
points wunsch says keeping rates too tight for too long now is a risk and robert holzmann says the ecb decisions would be influenced by the fed. he described the u.s. central bank as the gorilla in the room. he said there is no reason to cut too quickly after the likely cut in june. flagging the forecast at the september and december meetings. after the decision yesterday, we saw the sweden bank looking to a move the boe is expected to hold steady with investors looking to hold signals with the...
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May 16, 2024
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. ♪ >>> we are looking at breaking news from the ecb. the european central bank financial stability review coming through this morning. just reallyi speaking about financial vulnerabilities have eased, but the outlook is remaining fragile according to the ecb. conditions improving ultimately there. recession risk declining, but markets remain exposed to adverse micro financial and geopolitical surprises. tight financial conditions are testing the resilience of vulnerable euro area households. euro area banks are a source of resilience, interestingly enough, but low-market valuations suggest challenges do remain related to asset quality and funding as well as revenue. we will get more on this from annette who joins us now. vulnerability still in place and a fragile market in europe? >> reporter: that's the assessment of the ecb while the economic downturn or recession risk has eased at the same time geopolitical risk and policy risks have increased. what they mean by policy risk is unclear. i'll speak with the vice president soon and brin
. ♪ >>> we are looking at breaking news from the ecb. the european central bank financial stability review coming through this morning. just reallyi speaking about financial vulnerabilities have eased, but the outlook is remaining fragile according to the ecb. conditions improving ultimately there. recession risk declining, but markets remain exposed to adverse micro financial and geopolitical surprises. tight financial conditions are testing the resilience of vulnerable euro area...
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May 29, 2024
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german workers seeing a record rise in real wages in the first quarter, and with the impending ecb cut by 25 basis points, which is factored in for next week, can the ecb really declare victory on inflation if we see wage data trending to the upside >> no one can declare victory on inflation. if there is anything we have learned in the past few months, in fact, in the past two years is that inflation is unpredictable. for anyone to declare victory on inflation, you need to have years of good inflation behind you, and even then, central banks have always said they were worried about a pickup in prices. can you declare victory on this bout of inflation? no. and we know this from the pmi numbers last week. we see price pressures creeping up at the producer level, and that is sure to have an effect on overall inflation. and, ovg, wage inflation is very difficult to get down. once people have been through a large period where they were -- they have very few wage rises, now they have the kourmg go up to their boss and say, well, i want more money, and i see unemployment this low, and so you
german workers seeing a record rise in real wages in the first quarter, and with the impending ecb cut by 25 basis points, which is factored in for next week, can the ecb really declare victory on inflation if we see wage data trending to the upside >> no one can declare victory on inflation. if there is anything we have learned in the past few months, in fact, in the past two years is that inflation is unpredictable. for anyone to declare victory on inflation, you need to have years of...
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May 31, 2024
05/24
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we will price in more from the ecb. they want more cuts, a dovish component in the reaction is dovish. the fact is german growth and european growth is not positive. less pessimistic and inflation is not going away. global issues and sticky inflation so i don't think the ecb will deliver cups so the theme of pressure is global. not just a fed story. ecb will price more rate cuts. overpriced at the moment. joumanna: mmm. mmm. and let's not forget about jgb's. thank you for joining us on the show. that was mark cudmore. coming up, we talked to lithuania's prime minister on defense in singapore next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> disinflation has taken place. we see pressures on the u.s.. moderating in the second half of the year. joumanna: that was john williams about the impact on inflation of rates. we have a pce print, let me show you a chart because the expectation was it will be dropping and moderating around 0.25% which keeps the rate at 2.7% and this is what core pce looks like over the last six months. the trend i
we will price in more from the ecb. they want more cuts, a dovish component in the reaction is dovish. the fact is german growth and european growth is not positive. less pessimistic and inflation is not going away. global issues and sticky inflation so i don't think the ecb will deliver cups so the theme of pressure is global. not just a fed story. ecb will price more rate cuts. overpriced at the moment. joumanna: mmm. mmm. and let's not forget about jgb's. thank you for joining us on the...
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May 9, 2024
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is the ecb going in june? is that a huge opening for the boe to tailgate off the back of their cuts? >> i think there is certainly some communication but it's on going between the various central banks. we've seen a couple of central banks ignoring or moving well ahead of the fed in terms of the riksbank this week and the snb. the bank of england will look to adjust policy without reference to what the fed is doing. there will clearly be some policy indications in relation to the valuations of sterling relative to the dollar so we may see a slightly cheaper value of sterling. i think the bank will be very much focusing on the domestic data that will be the important factor here. in the context of today, the bank of england governor will try to maintain maximum optionality in terms of policy outcome but the data i think will be allied to the forecast profile and it warrants policy easing at the next meeting in june. dani: many folks have said the fed cannot move when it comes to november because of the election
is the ecb going in june? is that a huge opening for the boe to tailgate off the back of their cuts? >> i think there is certainly some communication but it's on going between the various central banks. we've seen a couple of central banks ignoring or moving well ahead of the fed in terms of the riksbank this week and the snb. the bank of england will look to adjust policy without reference to what the fed is doing. there will clearly be some policy indications in relation to the...
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May 10, 2024
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but is it as dovish then as the ecb? is it more dovish in your mind? sunaina: i think the question is, of course, there is the rate differential argument between fed versus bank of england and ecb. beyond that, remember, you've had a pounding on the ftse over the last year and a half because of the lack of depth in the markets, which has pushed down relative valuations. versus ecb, i think it is six of one and half a dozen of the other, the others will pick their spots in indices and company by company basis. on a relative basis, but markets look relatively cheaper than a lot out there. lizzy: given raymond james is one of the world's largest private wealth advisors, another long-term question. just how much more of the money do expect to be allocated in private equity by the end of the decade? sunaina: we are seeing a secular, once in a generation move from a high net worth and ultra high net worth individuals into alternatives at-large, especially private equity, infrastructure, private credit, and so on. that's because individual investors are sayin
but is it as dovish then as the ecb? is it more dovish in your mind? sunaina: i think the question is, of course, there is the rate differential argument between fed versus bank of england and ecb. beyond that, remember, you've had a pounding on the ftse over the last year and a half because of the lack of depth in the markets, which has pushed down relative valuations. versus ecb, i think it is six of one and half a dozen of the other, the others will pick their spots in indices and company by...
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May 28, 2024
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our "countdown closer" says, don't fight the fed or the ecb but how do you invest in it? infrastructure capital advisors ceo jay hatfield. who are you listening to, the ecb or the federal reserve and how are you investing through and around that? >> what most people don't appreciate the ecb is more important to the capital markets than the fed. liz: why? >> 30% of global money supply comes from europe. now we normally ignore europe which is fine because they have always historically followed the fed but because we had this huge gap, the u.s. has so many advantages we can't even talk about it, but tremendous advantages over the u.s., so they're roughly flat. by the way they would be in significant recession if not for u.s. imports keeping their demand up so their economy is so weak. plus they measure inflation properly and it is plummeting and will probably drop even more because energy prices have come oaf which everybody is ignoring. in fact that should help our inflation, not so much friday but later, so the ecb will definitely cut. that will increase global liquidity,
our "countdown closer" says, don't fight the fed or the ecb but how do you invest in it? infrastructure capital advisors ceo jay hatfield. who are you listening to, the ecb or the federal reserve and how are you investing through and around that? >> what most people don't appreciate the ecb is more important to the capital markets than the fed. liz: why? >> 30% of global money supply comes from europe. now we normally ignore europe which is fine because they have always...
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May 28, 2024
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for the ecb, what is restrictive? jane: if we have restrictive policy, we can see that coming through, the restrictiveness of a policy coming through in a number of data points. the fact is now that inflation is close to target and assuming it can remain close to target, it is time to switch the focus and move away from inflation to growth. we can see that in some of the comments by some of those members. lane is talking about restrictive. the data could still be telling us policy conditions and monetary conditions are still relatively restrictive after they've announced an interest rate in june. it may take another couple of moves before we can say a policy is no longer restrictive. we have a while to go before they can say that. jonathan: do you understand -- tom: do understand why we have -- lisa: to understand why we have this discussion from ecb members and hawkish from fed members and we have not seen material dollar strengthening. can you make sense of that? jane: i should probably point out that if you look at
for the ecb, what is restrictive? jane: if we have restrictive policy, we can see that coming through, the restrictiveness of a policy coming through in a number of data points. the fact is now that inflation is close to target and assuming it can remain close to target, it is time to switch the focus and move away from inflation to growth. we can see that in some of the comments by some of those members. lane is talking about restrictive. the data could still be telling us policy conditions...
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May 20, 2024
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from bank of america which says the surge may be partly down to monetary policy divergence with the ecb as well as the fed. barnaby martin at boa global research is joining us here in studio. help us understand the allure of the bond market and what is happening right now. good morning. >> good morning. thanks for having me on. u.s. companies are rushing to issue debt in our world and eueuro rather than the home country. it is unique because it will go before the fed and never seen the leading cycle which is driving funding costs down for u.s. firms looking at our market. the temptation is to issue more of the needed debt in euro rather than dollars. they are adding to our supply and flooding our market with issue answer. >> if you get at a later stage and need to refinance, that is a general good sense? >> it rejuvenates our market. it is good to have more firms and good for others which have traditional big firms which dominate the euro market. if you establish a funding pat ern patent in euro, it will mean every time you refinance, you keep the euro debt. >> what does it mean for the
from bank of america which says the surge may be partly down to monetary policy divergence with the ecb as well as the fed. barnaby martin at boa global research is joining us here in studio. help us understand the allure of the bond market and what is happening right now. good morning. >> good morning. thanks for having me on. u.s. companies are rushing to issue debt in our world and eueuro rather than the home country. it is unique because it will go before the fed and never seen the...
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May 22, 2024
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we're waiting for the wage data from the ecb tomorrow. but the big one, of course, that's cable. 127.31. we saw a bit of a spike after the session-highs off the back of the cpi data. i want to draw your attention to this one. the kiwi dollar saw a jump overnight. we didn't get a change from the reserve bank, but we got a decisively more hawkish tone. a quick check of the european yield picture, and what we're seeing here is spiked once again when it came to the uk curve. the 10-year is sitting at a high. once again, keep an eye on the bund yield, 2.53% ahead of the wage data. take a look at this. jgb's 10-year is above the 1% level for the first time in 11 years. we're expecting some hawkishness from the boj here. >>> a quick check of the futures as we're gearing up for a pretty important day. why? because it's nvidia day. this is a big driver of the entire ai ecosystem. ahead of that the future's looking so mixed. a fraction lower. the dow jones is seen by roughly 17 points. the nasdaq seen up by 8 or 9 points. again, all eyes on nvidia
we're waiting for the wage data from the ecb tomorrow. but the big one, of course, that's cable. 127.31. we saw a bit of a spike after the session-highs off the back of the cpi data. i want to draw your attention to this one. the kiwi dollar saw a jump overnight. we didn't get a change from the reserve bank, but we got a decisively more hawkish tone. a quick check of the european yield picture, and what we're seeing here is spiked once again when it came to the uk curve. the 10-year is sitting...
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May 24, 2024
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divergence between the fed and ecb inflationary or disinflationary? joachim: first of all, we have to take into account that the situation in the united states is different from the eurozone. the situation in economic terms in the united states is stronger than in the euro zone. inflation in the united states seems to be a little bit more sticky than in the eurozone. what i would like to say is we have to do monetary policy for the euro zone. this is our mandate, and inflation is coming down. nevertheless, there are spillovers. take for example the economic models we are using. there are -- there are feedback loops. what happens in the united states has some impact on the data we are using. we are not completely independent from what is going on in the united states. oliver: is it hard to tell? joachim: i guess we have a good understanding what is going on there. what i see, taking the eurozone data -- and this is my first line of defense, and i have to look at what is going on there. this is of highest importance to the governing council. what i see
divergence between the fed and ecb inflationary or disinflationary? joachim: first of all, we have to take into account that the situation in the united states is different from the eurozone. the situation in economic terms in the united states is stronger than in the euro zone. inflation in the united states seems to be a little bit more sticky than in the eurozone. what i would like to say is we have to do monetary policy for the euro zone. this is our mandate, and inflation is coming down....
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May 27, 2024
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volume is like when adding to the confusion with the ecb chief economist saying that the ecb is on track to start cutting rates next month. but we're going to have to keep rates in restrictive territory all year. you can see the central breakdown, utilities top of the basket higher 8/10 of 1%. as we look ahead to the wall street open tomorrow, you got u.s. futures struggling for direction as well, flat to the downside. gold a touch higher and brent trading at $82 per barrel. in terms of our top stories this morning, the ecb needs to keep its policy in restrictive territory. the central bank chief economist told the financial times that rates can move down within "the zone of restrictiveness" what confirming that the first cut is slated for the next meeting tarring major surprises. elsewhere, the bank of japan has signaled there is room for raising interest rates after japan shifted away from an inflation nor. the deputy governor said the end of the battle with deflation is insight while the governor found a way to proceed cautiously. and bill gross said that the bond market would be more
volume is like when adding to the confusion with the ecb chief economist saying that the ecb is on track to start cutting rates next month. but we're going to have to keep rates in restrictive territory all year. you can see the central breakdown, utilities top of the basket higher 8/10 of 1%. as we look ahead to the wall street open tomorrow, you got u.s. futures struggling for direction as well, flat to the downside. gold a touch higher and brent trading at $82 per barrel. in terms of our top...
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May 31, 2024
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>> ecb. ecb will cut on june 16th when they meet. when we talk about the u.s. elections coming down the line, the aggregate demand in the u.s. is 11% higher from the pre-covid levels. the amount in this level is 2% lower than pre-covid levels. why do we have the high rates in the uk? i don't get it. everyone was waiting for the fed to move and we would follow-up. to me, there is a lack of leadership i see everywhere. on the economic front. >> it is such an interesting moment to look at all of this and whether you go from inflation or central banks. thank you for backi breaking it down for us. >>> i want to take you to the action in the european equities as we approach the end of the show. at this stage, we are seeing most of the main boards in europe trading in the green. this as we await the key inflation printout of the eurozone at 10:00 a.m. london time. now, elsewhere, we are seeing the trump media shares down in pre-market trade. lower by 8%. this is, obviously, after the news that donald trump was convicted in his hush money trial. br briefly taking a loo
>> ecb. ecb will cut on june 16th when they meet. when we talk about the u.s. elections coming down the line, the aggregate demand in the u.s. is 11% higher from the pre-covid levels. the amount in this level is 2% lower than pre-covid levels. why do we have the high rates in the uk? i don't get it. everyone was waiting for the fed to move and we would follow-up. to me, there is a lack of leadership i see everywhere. on the economic front. >> it is such an interesting moment to look...
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May 16, 2024
05/24
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we'll get ecb cuts followed by fed cuts. maria: when do you think you'll get the ecb to cut rates. we talked about this before. you are always -- you've been expecting the ecb to move before the fed for a long time. >> they all but said they're absolutely doing it, using banker speak. they don't really say they're absolutely going to do it. maria: sometime this summer. >> june 6. maria: june 6. >> we think that's going to be super positive. there is no dial to reduced interest rates in frankfurt, in the new york fed. you have to inject liquidity and that's what drives markets. we saw it in '20 and '21, all that liquidity injection and we're going to get that globally. it's not just the 25 cut, it's all the liquidity coming in, it's going to drive stock and bond prices higher during the summer. maria: you would think if you get a cut from the ecb, that's more pressure on the federal reserve. >> i would think they would be more likely to follow suit. the ecb, they're doing a better job taming inflation than we are. we've seen a reacceleration in inflation which is certainly troubling
we'll get ecb cuts followed by fed cuts. maria: when do you think you'll get the ecb to cut rates. we talked about this before. you are always -- you've been expecting the ecb to move before the fed for a long time. >> they all but said they're absolutely doing it, using banker speak. they don't really say they're absolutely going to do it. maria: sometime this summer. >> june 6. maria: june 6. >> we think that's going to be super positive. there is no dial to reduced interest...
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May 21, 2024
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it gives the ecb a good feeling about cutting rates, i guess. the decline in producer prices might give us an idea of where inflation is headed for the next reading. the last reading in april was steady at 2.2%. >> annette, give me a sense how germans are feeling about their lives at the moment? you would think it was pretty good. gdp came in pretty good. close to record highs for the stock market. wages are still rising. we are going to be getting that rate cut and then, of course, the european championship this summer. are we in for a positive surprise on the football and the economy this year? >> reporter: p well, i'm not an expert on football. i don't think so. the general morale, in germany, carolin, is not great, but it is also the real estate sector. that is one of the crucial issues here that rents are on the rise despite the fact that real estate prices are declining, especially in the mid-market and lower-market segment. not so much in the luxury market seg segment. that is a headache for people here on the ground. people are scared ab
it gives the ecb a good feeling about cutting rates, i guess. the decline in producer prices might give us an idea of where inflation is headed for the next reading. the last reading in april was steady at 2.2%. >> annette, give me a sense how germans are feeling about their lives at the moment? you would think it was pretty good. gdp came in pretty good. close to record highs for the stock market. wages are still rising. we are going to be getting that rate cut and then, of course, the...
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May 30, 2024
05/24
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the ecb is preparing to reduce rates next week. europe is meaningfully less stressed than the economic -- american market. it will catch up, let's go there. where are you expecting a performance in the european market? seema: the interesting thing about europe is you are getting asked closer to value parts of the market. as we look across europe, even the u.k. is looking a lot more attractive to us now in the past couple of months. jonathan: energy names, mining, a couple of names? seema: energy, mining, pharmaceuticals, biotech. commodities as well. there is a range of sectors in the u.k. because it's multinational. a lot of these companies have exposure internationally and trading at such a discount. you see opportunity of growth in the u.s. given the u.k. -- u.k. versus u.s.. lisa: how much is predicated on the number of rate cuts? seema: for your we know what the rate cut is. the ecb will cut rates next week and to compare that to the u.s.. the debate is dan, day out when mystified going to cut? there are surprises to the upsid
the ecb is preparing to reduce rates next week. europe is meaningfully less stressed than the economic -- american market. it will catch up, let's go there. where are you expecting a performance in the european market? seema: the interesting thing about europe is you are getting asked closer to value parts of the market. as we look across europe, even the u.k. is looking a lot more attractive to us now in the past couple of months. jonathan: energy names, mining, a couple of names? seema:...
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May 23, 2024
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no one is saying, may the ecb will not cut. that is the difference between the european region and the u.s. you see better-than-expected data? that is not a reason to doubt whether the ecb can go. jonathan: they seem committed to that move in june. under surveillance on our radar this morning. nvidia beating expectations and rewarding investors with an increased dividend and 10 to one stock split. it could add more than the entire market cap of intel to its valuation. we are talking about massive numbers. lisa: i was reading about this last night. i will say, this discussion around a complete change in the concept of retrieving information versus generating answers, generating information, it is definitely a different way of cloud computing, of in general technology. if amd and intel is behind on that, how do they break into the 80% market share nvidia has on ai? to me the question is not who is going to challenge nvidia, it is, what is the prospect for amd and intel going forward? jonathan: earnings season for nvidia started a
no one is saying, may the ecb will not cut. that is the difference between the european region and the u.s. you see better-than-expected data? that is not a reason to doubt whether the ecb can go. jonathan: they seem committed to that move in june. under surveillance on our radar this morning. nvidia beating expectations and rewarding investors with an increased dividend and 10 to one stock split. it could add more than the entire market cap of intel to its valuation. we are talking about...
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May 24, 2024
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traders now only pricing in 60 basis points of cuts from the ecb. the cac 40 today off 0.2%. the dax is tracking lower to the tune of 0.4% we are on track for the worst job in five weeks. for week, these european indices tracking plus 1% declines. we also had some worse than expected retail sales coming from the uk which is putting pressure on the retailer there is for the month of april, are frank, retail shares dropped i want to show you the sectors one by one autos and technology or retail tracking to the upside technology is a mirror image from yesterday the biggest decliner off 0.9%. back to you. >> carolin, thank you very much for that one let's turn to the action in asia and what was a roughe end to th week with jp ong in singapore. >> i will not lie, it stung with the selloff. in tokyo, the selloff happened despite the japanese yen we weakened weakening past 157 against the greenback. we saw core inflation soften again in japan calling in question of the demand may an be on the last legs that caused a significant outflow of funds from the japanese markets and nikkei 2
traders now only pricing in 60 basis points of cuts from the ecb. the cac 40 today off 0.2%. the dax is tracking lower to the tune of 0.4% we are on track for the worst job in five weeks. for week, these european indices tracking plus 1% declines. we also had some worse than expected retail sales coming from the uk which is putting pressure on the retailer there is for the month of april, are frank, retail shares dropped i want to show you the sectors one by one autos and technology or retail...
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May 24, 2024
05/24
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really fascinating as we expect that cut from ecb in june. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back, happy friday. here's the good news and bad news for the markets. we focus on the pmi, trump is it data came out. manufacturing and service out of the u.s. for the month of may. on one line, this is good story. it's reminding us of the strength of the u.s. economy. the white line is compass a and you could see a edging higher. services that is really showing the strength. manufacturing got a pick up. this is the biggest jump for compass it we've seen in about two years. the yellow line is services. really important, input prices and prices charge, both edging up, 54 point four on compass it, well into expansionary territory. raising questions, reinforcing the view we got from the fed minutes that they do need to be higher for longer because it will take that much more time to get to the 2% target given the strength coming through on some of these economic data points out of the u.s.. i think this is a relevant question as to whether or not the
really fascinating as we expect that cut from ecb in june. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ tom: welcome back, happy friday. here's the good news and bad news for the markets. we focus on the pmi, trump is it data came out. manufacturing and service out of the u.s. for the month of may. on one line, this is good story. it's reminding us of the strength of the u.s. economy. the white line is compass a and you could see a edging higher. services that is really showing the strength....
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May 27, 2024
05/24
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adding to the confusion with the ecb chief economist saying that the ecb is on track to start cutting rates next month but it is going to have to keep rates and restrictive territory all year. if we break the stud 600 down by sector, you got utility leading a tense of a percent this morning. volumes are light, the u.k. is out of action, so take that rate down with a little pinch of salt. as we look ahead tomorrow, we've got u.s. equity futures pointing to a lower opening, keeping to narrow ranges. investors weighing solid corporate earnings against the higher for longer rates outlook. euro-dollar at 108, oil at $82 a barrel. in terms of our top stories this morning, at least 40 palestinians were killed in an israeli airstrike at a camp for displaced people in rafah late on sunday. this is according to the hamas- but military of health and it comes two days after the international court of justice issued it will wind the return -- interpreted as telling israel to halted operations. elon musk's x-ai has raised $6 billion to challenge his former competitors. and shares of china evergrand
adding to the confusion with the ecb chief economist saying that the ecb is on track to start cutting rates next month but it is going to have to keep rates and restrictive territory all year. if we break the stud 600 down by sector, you got utility leading a tense of a percent this morning. volumes are light, the u.k. is out of action, so take that rate down with a little pinch of salt. as we look ahead tomorrow, we've got u.s. equity futures pointing to a lower opening, keeping to narrow...
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May 24, 2024
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therefore leaving the ecb with the dilemma. i think the ecb is in a more difficult place than the fed on that particular point. dani: if they are in this dilemma at the moment, do we start talking about euro parity if that's where this is going? colin: i think if they say they will cut rates and continue to cut rates, that will leave the euro to go lower. we could easily talk about parity, because i think if you see big rate cuts there is something wrong with the economy. therefore you see growth falling and possibly inflation. therefore that will cause the currency to lose one of the spots. as we are seeing with the global manufacturing recovery and recovery in europe, you're actually seeing that quite clearly now. you saw the banks report good earnings. the european economy is actually doing ok, and therefore i can't see why they would want to do more than one rate cut, possibly two. annmarie: you said earlier the ecb is in a worse place than the fed so how is the economy doing better than you expected? colin: this is from th
therefore leaving the ecb with the dilemma. i think the ecb is in a more difficult place than the fed on that particular point. dani: if they are in this dilemma at the moment, do we start talking about euro parity if that's where this is going? colin: i think if they say they will cut rates and continue to cut rates, that will leave the euro to go lower. we could easily talk about parity, because i think if you see big rate cuts there is something wrong with the economy. therefore you see...
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May 28, 2024
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it is all about the macro data and the ecb cut. back to you. >> carolin roth, thank you >>> we are turning back to the u.s. with the housing reports. the housing market is seeing high rights and inconvenient after and negative sentiment from buyers and sellers. shelter prices are sticky, but the rate on the 30-year fix san diego fixed is down 5% let's talk about this with our guest now. >> nice to see you, frank. >> i hope you had a nice weekend. back to business today back to business for everybody wall street, real estate, the whole shebang. the rates for the 30-year ticked below just a bit it is still easing a bit give us a snapshot of what is going on in the housing market >> i think the fact that the last few weeks we have seen the 30-year dip down is a good sign. you know, the real estate market is cyclical. it can dip back up again it is hard to say. the challenge, frank, has been the artificial constraint on inventory. so many have been locked in at 2% and 3% and they are unwilling to let go of that which makes sense. i don
it is all about the macro data and the ecb cut. back to you. >> carolin roth, thank you >>> we are turning back to the u.s. with the housing reports. the housing market is seeing high rights and inconvenient after and negative sentiment from buyers and sellers. shelter prices are sticky, but the rate on the 30-year fix san diego fixed is down 5% let's talk about this with our guest now. >> nice to see you, frank. >> i hope you had a nice weekend. back to business...
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May 30, 2024
05/24
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jonathan: the question for the ecb next week setting to cut next week, how far can you go. the fed, can they go whatsoever. the euro positive by .1%. fed president bostic saying he is optimistic a rate cut could come at the end of the year. williams and logan set to speak. u.s. jobless claims data and gdp out in two hours time. annmarie: this is a place where williams might weigh in on what bostic said last night. bostic said looking at the end of the year, the fourth quarter as a time we might actually think about and be prepared to reduce rates. not cut them but to think about cutting them. jonathan: imagine if that is what they said five months ago and what people were talking about on the street. maybe you got one at the end of the year when we have people on this program talking about march of 2024. lisa: the biggest thing that people got wrong including the fed officials is how quickly the economy would deteriorate. they were carving out seven cuts because they expected a recession and it has not materialized. what does it mean to be restrictive? that is why i think b
jonathan: the question for the ecb next week setting to cut next week, how far can you go. the fed, can they go whatsoever. the euro positive by .1%. fed president bostic saying he is optimistic a rate cut could come at the end of the year. williams and logan set to speak. u.s. jobless claims data and gdp out in two hours time. annmarie: this is a place where williams might weigh in on what bostic said last night. bostic said looking at the end of the year, the fourth quarter as a time we might...
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May 16, 2024
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where it gets tested is by the fed hiking while the ecb is easing. if the would have raised rates twice and the ecb would have cut twice at the same time, i think i would go and hide under the sofa for some of the data points. i don't think it is written in stone they have to move step for step. you can see by the yen, you can have big currency moves that don't have a major impact on the economy. the japanese are not getting the kind of economic recovery you would like to see who's currency has lost that much value. jonathan: we noticed the ministry of finance in japan looking at the news and is the worst over for them in the fx market? kit: tell me if we have seen the height in the 10 year notes is the answer. it doesn't feel to me and probably one solid data print that gets us to 160 again. people who have been selling the yen have given back some of their profits but every day they pick up more money from the carry of that trade and volatility is coming back down so trades are getting less expensive. they are getting a period of calm but you would
where it gets tested is by the fed hiking while the ecb is easing. if the would have raised rates twice and the ecb would have cut twice at the same time, i think i would go and hide under the sofa for some of the data points. i don't think it is written in stone they have to move step for step. you can see by the yen, you can have big currency moves that don't have a major impact on the economy. the japanese are not getting the kind of economic recovery you would like to see who's currency has...
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May 28, 2024
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if the ecb june rate cuts, is it a policy mistake? can they truly bring back inflationary pressures in a big way? i would be concerned about this move from the ecb and the move in the euro is only going to come after we see the narrative out of that meeting. there is a shift happening in the ecb where they are a bit more balanced about the policy direction posed the june meeting and preaching data dependence. i do think the euro will wait for that narrative to come out. sterling i think is purely risk sentiment play. the way u.s. equities move, that impacts the sterling more than the yield divergence. haslinda: give it your base case, how would you be playing the majors right now? charu: i still think in the next few summer months, carrie trading will be the big scene. it certainly means that i stay bearish the. dollar-yen is a buy the dip. risk sentiment, as long as volatility is low, that would help starling. so i am still looking at sterling, but the big story is around the aussie dollar which is getting the benefit of this risk se
if the ecb june rate cuts, is it a policy mistake? can they truly bring back inflationary pressures in a big way? i would be concerned about this move from the ecb and the move in the euro is only going to come after we see the narrative out of that meeting. there is a shift happening in the ecb where they are a bit more balanced about the policy direction posed the june meeting and preaching data dependence. i do think the euro will wait for that narrative to come out. sterling i think is...
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May 28, 2024
05/24
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the ecb moving ahead of time and most notable is that we also said we could not rule out a jewel—like rate cut which by and large have been ruled out by many other members. it points to potential outlying strength for european equities right now. tell outlying strength for european equities right now.— equities right now. tell us more about _ equities right now. tell us more about why _ equities right now. tell us more about why it - equities right now. tell us more about why it is - equities right now. tell us l more about why it is europe thatis more about why it is europe that is ready to move at this point in time, what are the conditions in the background? first and foremost you have to look at the strength of the us economy over the course of the past two years, that has not necessarily happened in europe. suddenly a heavy focus on manufacturing, which has been the one big weak spot which is why germany has suffered in particular and so there has been a need for the ecb to act where possible. they have driven down inflation down to 2.4% but the eurozone is a grouping of countr
the ecb moving ahead of time and most notable is that we also said we could not rule out a jewel—like rate cut which by and large have been ruled out by many other members. it points to potential outlying strength for european equities right now. tell outlying strength for european equities right now.— equities right now. tell us more about _ equities right now. tell us more about why _ equities right now. tell us more about why it - equities right now. tell us more about why it is -...
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May 1, 2024
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all in all, though, when you ask analysts what this means, they say that the ecb is still on track to cut rates in june. this is very important because when you think about the ecb and the fed, the expectation at this stage that we're going to get a first rate cut from the ecb in june, but key question marks about when and whether we're actually going to see the fed taking that step later on this year. >> cnbc's silvia amaro live from london, thank you as aalways. >>> next up we'll take another look at donald trump's interview with time magazine and how he answered questions regarding the issue of abortion. that's when "way too early" comes right back. when "way too comes right back a year after a heart attack, mike's feeling like himself again. but even though time has passed, his risk of a second attack hasn't. mike is still living in the red. with a very high risk of another heart attack or stroke. he doesn't know with his risk factors his ldl-c (bad cholesterol) is still too high - the recommended level is below 55. are you living in the red? get in the know. learn how to get a fr
all in all, though, when you ask analysts what this means, they say that the ecb is still on track to cut rates in june. this is very important because when you think about the ecb and the fed, the expectation at this stage that we're going to get a first rate cut from the ecb in june, but key question marks about when and whether we're actually going to see the fed taking that step later on this year. >> cnbc's silvia amaro live from london, thank you as aalways. >>> next up...
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May 23, 2024
05/24
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we got into the conversation which we will show you in the 7:00 hour with the euro it is likely the ecb will move ahead of the fed and that will weaken the euro. there are a lot of take aways how he is thinking about politics and we talk about the issues with china and we mentioned tiktok i mentioned that in new caldonia, where there are riots taking place, they shutdown tiktok he had pointed words with how the united states is thinking about china as an enemy or frenemy. there will be pieces of this that folks will be watching. >> the euro is down 2.5% on the year just on those concerns that the ecb is going to cut rates and the fed won't be able to for a while. that makes the dollar stronger and that, in some ways, brings a lot of inflationary pressures back to the ecb and euro as well >> there's no question no question. by the way, we talked about the olympics we're here in paris and it gets crowded every day. this is the city that is clearly getting ready for their big moment in the sun and a lot of folks will be following all this one of the other things we will get into and we wil
we got into the conversation which we will show you in the 7:00 hour with the euro it is likely the ecb will move ahead of the fed and that will weaken the euro. there are a lot of take aways how he is thinking about politics and we talk about the issues with china and we mentioned tiktok i mentioned that in new caldonia, where there are riots taking place, they shutdown tiktok he had pointed words with how the united states is thinking about china as an enemy or frenemy. there will be pieces...
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May 28, 2024
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has got -- >> talking about a subsequent cut. >> now talk, yeah from an ecb member, about -- here's from the economist of the ecb, barring any major surprises -- they've been so clear in telegraphing this -- they're going to remove the top level of restriction, i.e., cut interests next week. the effect of this euro weak against the dollar and u.s. companies are now issuing more debt i keep hearing this color out of the bond desk in euros, instead of dollars, and a flutter of activity on that front because they're getting now lower rates. >> right. >> over in europe. look at the euro/dollar. >> euro denominated debt. >> is popular. >> makes sense. >> because the fed -- ecb is ahead of the fed i think that will be a question ultimately for the fed, is how much longer can they wait as the last man standing on major central banks, if bank of england, ecb, bank of canada start to cut rates before then they have to make policy for the u.s., no doubt about it, and our economy has been stronger and inflation stickier, but that differential is something people are paying attention to. >> you
has got -- >> talking about a subsequent cut. >> now talk, yeah from an ecb member, about -- here's from the economist of the ecb, barring any major surprises -- they've been so clear in telegraphing this -- they're going to remove the top level of restriction, i.e., cut interests next week. the effect of this euro weak against the dollar and u.s. companies are now issuing more debt i keep hearing this color out of the bond desk in euros, instead of dollars, and a flutter of...
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May 28, 2024
05/24
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BBCNEWS
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this indicates the ecb will likely move before the us federal reserve. to india now, where the country's food safety regulator has banned the unauthorised sale of breastmilk across all states. the ban comes after reports and representations were made that some companies were selling human milk in the open market. the bbc�*s arunoday mukharji has more on why they needed to crack down. this has been a concern as some have complained that there are some companies in the country which are involved in the practice of selling breastmilk. triggered along these complaints, india's top food regulator has come up with the directive saying that the unauthorised commercialisation of breastmilk is an offence and any company that is found to violate this order will invite punitive action. we've seen reports that there are these milk banks which are involved in the sale of breastmilk, but they operate as nonprofits. they are getting word from lactating mothers and this milk is sold at a profit. surprisingly, a lot of them have managed to get a licence from the releva
this indicates the ecb will likely move before the us federal reserve. to india now, where the country's food safety regulator has banned the unauthorised sale of breastmilk across all states. the ban comes after reports and representations were made that some companies were selling human milk in the open market. the bbc�*s arunoday mukharji has more on why they needed to crack down. this has been a concern as some have complained that there are some companies in the country which are...
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May 8, 2024
05/24
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CNBC
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the ecb is widely expected to cut rates. when it comes to the fed, there's no clarity at all. >> you've seen european inflation coming down. european inflation is now at 2.4, which is, you know, in the range of historically normal inflation, so why not cut rates. we'll see a first cut in june that will, again, drive attention to europe being in this favorable situation of economic growth picking up and inabout flakes coming down at the same time, which is a very nice backdrop. that should be helpful for markets looking forward as well. >> kristina, coming back over to you, we've seen something not unprecedented, but a bitz unusual. i was thinking about the buyback, bp being one of them. do you believe that's a long-term tailwind do you think they'll become a bigger part of the corporate culture here >> oh, absolutely. the momentum in buy backs has been really significant among european stocks, and i think that could continue because there is cash on balance sheets that can be deployed that way. if we were to look at the top
the ecb is widely expected to cut rates. when it comes to the fed, there's no clarity at all. >> you've seen european inflation coming down. european inflation is now at 2.4, which is, you know, in the range of historically normal inflation, so why not cut rates. we'll see a first cut in june that will, again, drive attention to europe being in this favorable situation of economic growth picking up and inabout flakes coming down at the same time, which is a very nice backdrop. that should...
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May 10, 2024
05/24
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BLOOMBERG
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might it take the opportunity in june or after when the ecb does start to cut its rate? andrew: thanks very much. you raised a beautiful point for me. the pboc controls primarily quantity. a lot of the things they do is they say, we are going to reduce foreign exchange and the reserve requirements of the bank and we will change the way the reserve requirements can be used and they are not really touching interest rates which is correct. they can either control quantity or interest rates. not both. they are unwilling to do too much on interest rates so i would not be surprised they are decreasing the reserve requirements of the bank. completely correct and consistent policies. haslinda: andrew, hang tight. we will have more from andrew harris. let's have a check on how hong kong financials are doing. they are up at the highest level since june 2023 on the backs of the high dividend stocks in hong kong are advancing on chinese regulators' proposal to exempt individual investors from paying dividend sectors on a cities' shares. the hong kong exchange rising as much as a per
might it take the opportunity in june or after when the ecb does start to cut its rate? andrew: thanks very much. you raised a beautiful point for me. the pboc controls primarily quantity. a lot of the things they do is they say, we are going to reduce foreign exchange and the reserve requirements of the bank and we will change the way the reserve requirements can be used and they are not really touching interest rates which is correct. they can either control quantity or interest rates. not...
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May 27, 2024
05/24
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CNBC
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bbva went straight to shareholders after sabadel l rejected the initial offer >>> and a chorus of ecb speakers are paving the way for the first rate cut next week speaking with the financial times, the chief economist philip lane said barring any issues, they would remove the top level of restrictions. those comments were echoed by other board members over the weekend as they expressed confidence over easing monetary policy ahead of the mostmentous week nx week, yields are tapped higher not a lot of movement this morning or this week i assume traders will sit on their hands. the 10-year yield at 3.35. very much range bound for this year that is a good word to use for the fx markets we are seeing the dollar lower against the euro at 108.48 no major impact from the ifo business index sterling and dollar changing at 127.42 we're seeing the dollar and the swiss at 91.45 >>> it has been a big week in the cryptocurrency markets i want to show you ether up 1.8% on the day bitcoin is down at 0.1%. sitting at 68,759 an an. following a rule change from the s.e.c. that could pave the way for an
bbva went straight to shareholders after sabadel l rejected the initial offer >>> and a chorus of ecb speakers are paving the way for the first rate cut next week speaking with the financial times, the chief economist philip lane said barring any issues, they would remove the top level of restrictions. those comments were echoed by other board members over the weekend as they expressed confidence over easing monetary policy ahead of the mostmentous week nx week, yields are tapped...
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May 20, 2024
05/24
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BLOOMBERG
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path is declining fast enough to have several interest-rate cuts, whether it is from the fed or the ecb, or in general across the g10 space. it looks as though we are getting into the same realms again where several rate cuts are being priced in. maybe a little too much. yields possibly discounting more then will really come on the table from central banks. the first real test will be in under two weeks. the european central bank fully expected to deliver their first interest-rate cut in this cycle. but there are considerable doubts about how many more, and when the next rate cuts will be coming after that, we are already hearing pushback from several ecb people saying don't expect consecutive rate cuts from the european central bank. clearly, that market may be getting ahead of itself. they have to discuss the timetable for winding down their balance sheet, which could be quicker than is currently price of the market, so certainly the european market is one that could be too far. the u.k. as well. again, bank of england may cut interest rates in june, but the pace of cuts this year cou
path is declining fast enough to have several interest-rate cuts, whether it is from the fed or the ecb, or in general across the g10 space. it looks as though we are getting into the same realms again where several rate cuts are being priced in. maybe a little too much. yields possibly discounting more then will really come on the table from central banks. the first real test will be in under two weeks. the european central bank fully expected to deliver their first interest-rate cut in this...
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May 21, 2024
05/24
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BLOOMBERG
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lisa: there is more uncertainty around the ecb. maybe she could say more about how much they could diverge. i'm talking about diverging from the fed. you need a little less. jonathan: ecb is the only one saying, we have to go. after that, we do not know, but think of england is reluctant to say. and the ecb seems to be the only one saying it is time to go. see you in june. lisa: it seems that there is more conviction around that. they have not gained as much steam. i wonder if it will be the path afterwards that the most. a lot of fed speak. the idea of it really speaks to a complete lack of certainty and how many come after that. it shows how different the fed is right now. jonathan: under surveillance this morning, shares rising in the market. better than expected sales for the first quarter. target getting more insight into the consumer. elsewhere they say they have the capability to disable chipmaking machines in the event that china invades taiwan. they have reassured officials of their ability to remotely disable machines for
lisa: there is more uncertainty around the ecb. maybe she could say more about how much they could diverge. i'm talking about diverging from the fed. you need a little less. jonathan: ecb is the only one saying, we have to go. after that, we do not know, but think of england is reluctant to say. and the ecb seems to be the only one saying it is time to go. see you in june. lisa: it seems that there is more conviction around that. they have not gained as much steam. i wonder if it will be the...
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May 23, 2024
05/24
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BLOOMBERG
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tom: what is it do in terms of the constraints on the ecb what we fully expect a cut in june? >> even the ecb's projections to anticipate the acceleration that has been clear in terms of the communication, also emphasizing the niceness in the debt -- the date over the coming months. the focus in general we talk about monetary policy is about medium-term inflation outlook. it's not necessarily the next six months, but where the forecasts are pointing over the course of the next few years. tom: how do you factor in the european elections into your views around the euro zone economy? whether it's a question of fiscal support or shift to the right within the body politic, how you thinking about factoring that into your forecast? >> the focus is on the fact that the right-wing parties are gaining popularity. we don't see an immediate impact in terms of our growth trajectory, but we do take it into consideration the potential shifts within the competition within the eu parliament could imply some changes in terms of policy agenda. a bit more push back against a green agenda and more
tom: what is it do in terms of the constraints on the ecb what we fully expect a cut in june? >> even the ecb's projections to anticipate the acceleration that has been clear in terms of the communication, also emphasizing the niceness in the debt -- the date over the coming months. the focus in general we talk about monetary policy is about medium-term inflation outlook. it's not necessarily the next six months, but where the forecasts are pointing over the course of the next few years....
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0.0
May 16, 2024
05/24
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RUSSIA24
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consequently, the country’s economy itself, inflation for the entire forecast period will remain above the ecb’s targets, that is , even significantly cooling consumer prices will not help... the german council of economic experts predicts the growth rate of gross domestic product at 2% this year and 9% next year, these are bad numbers. this year's weak growth is due to the decline in growth in the fourth quarter of '23, which means that this year... you need to grow first to achieve positive growth rates at all. ministry of labor of russia proposed to increase the cost of living by almost 15% next year. as noted in the ministry, the draft resolution has already been submitted for public discussion. the proposal is based on a calculation of median income and projected inflation for this year. the cost of living is used to calculate measures to support the population. as performance increases, payments increase. needy families with children, as well as federal and regional supplements to pensions. and in conclusion, i will remind you, releasing, i will remind you the exchange rate for today i
consequently, the country’s economy itself, inflation for the entire forecast period will remain above the ecb’s targets, that is , even significantly cooling consumer prices will not help... the german council of economic experts predicts the growth rate of gross domestic product at 2% this year and 9% next year, these are bad numbers. this year's weak growth is due to the decline in growth in the fourth quarter of '23, which means that this year... you need to grow first to achieve...
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0.0
May 15, 2024
05/24
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FBC
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birth of qe some interesting things have happened as pertains, the fed and the bank of england and ecb acted in complete coordination and act to gather. we get telegraphing from the ecb that they will be cutting rates in june meeting of look that will follow shortly thereafter, utility stocks going parabolic, very interest rate sensitive. all these signals, 10 year yield, lapsing telling us what the fed will do and inflation is in the rearview mirror. that is the view the market is telling us. the best time to belong stocks in a presidential election year through the month of august. charles: you talk about copper and implications for a strong global economy but the global economy is strong, why would central banks be cutting, looking at china, can't get its act together. the utility play, but copperplate, a electricity demand for economies. >> it is part of that as well, large borrowers of money, central rates are restrictive too long. the federal reserve shouldn't have been here for a long time. rates are 1% higher than they should be. the feds got 2 to 3 rate cuts from the beginning
birth of qe some interesting things have happened as pertains, the fed and the bank of england and ecb acted in complete coordination and act to gather. we get telegraphing from the ecb that they will be cutting rates in june meeting of look that will follow shortly thereafter, utility stocks going parabolic, very interest rate sensitive. all these signals, 10 year yield, lapsing telling us what the fed will do and inflation is in the rearview mirror. that is the view the market is telling us....