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Feb 23, 2024
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what the fed is focused on is inflation.hey got the easy part of the inflation done, goods has converged to where it should be. it should ultimately be not adding to inflation, pressure should be going back to zero. a lot of the inflation story the fed is working on his services. some are more cyclical, more related to financial conditions. what the fed is focused on is notable easing and financial conditions we have seen. if that persists, it raises questions about how confident the fed can be to cut rates. >> there were some voices debating if a cut was even possible. but there is a possibility. what would make that possibility a reality? >> the possibility of an incremental hike, the fed would siri acceleration of some of these inflationary pressures. the idea that the fed is not making as much progress as expected, certainly not our base case at the markets. base case is not that as well. it would have to come down to expectations inflation has completely stalled, and the fed has to do something to push back on that. not
what the fed is focused on is inflation.hey got the easy part of the inflation done, goods has converged to where it should be. it should ultimately be not adding to inflation, pressure should be going back to zero. a lot of the inflation story the fed is working on his services. some are more cyclical, more related to financial conditions. what the fed is focused on is notable easing and financial conditions we have seen. if that persists, it raises questions about how confident the fed can be...
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Feb 13, 2024
02/24
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accommodated fed actually making cuts.t, and continued physical stimulus is as well as achieving 245 in smp earnings this year. so, there's a lot of the things that have to happen to give the market where it is. you get a day like today you get one point that disappoints, and you have a market selloff. >> yeah, but you're right for a selloff. what you need so many good things to keep things going? >> i would actually argue it's exactly the opposite. >> welcome any of those could go wrong. in the markets going to take it as a nonhospital act. >> i know, but we've been up a ton. so, yes it's going to selloff. should change how the bulls should think about where this rally has done and what it might do from here? >> no. i think we have to look at the market over longer periods of time. so, the s&p over the last two is years is on the up 5 1/2 percent. if you extend your outlook over 10 years the earnings are up 100%. the stocks are up 125%. so, you have a long-term view, and a pullback. means to you. >> what are you currently
accommodated fed actually making cuts.t, and continued physical stimulus is as well as achieving 245 in smp earnings this year. so, there's a lot of the things that have to happen to give the market where it is. you get a day like today you get one point that disappoints, and you have a market selloff. >> yeah, but you're right for a selloff. what you need so many good things to keep things going? >> i would actually argue it's exactly the opposite. >> welcome any of those...
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Feb 16, 2024
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on top of those fed minutes we will get more fed speak through the week.ichelle bowman, patrick harker, lisa cook, neel kashkari, christopher waller, and more. we had a lot of economic data this week. now it will be a matter of what the governor and the presidents all feel about it what -- about what it means for the pace of rate cuts. we have had a lot of volatility this week at 20 basis point mover from close on monday to midday today, passing waste -- way past the 460 level in the two year yield. we will see if that level sustains when we hear that commentary and those fed minutes. we keep an eye on that had more next week and we have earnings to give a sense of the consumer. we have seen from other other economic data this week that retail sales and consumer sentiment. a check on the markets. the 10 year yield facing an eight basis point move up to 431 on the day. a popular trade. two year yield at 467 on the week. from new york that doesn't from us. same time same place next week. this is bloomberg real yield. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> welcome
on top of those fed minutes we will get more fed speak through the week.ichelle bowman, patrick harker, lisa cook, neel kashkari, christopher waller, and more. we had a lot of economic data this week. now it will be a matter of what the governor and the presidents all feel about it what -- about what it means for the pace of rate cuts. we have had a lot of volatility this week at 20 basis point mover from close on monday to midday today, passing waste -- way past the 460 level in the two year...
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fed is accommodative, the fed is on our side. it is up, up and away from here.he was trying to tamp that down i'm not sure he succeeded? >> well look, it is going to come down to actions following his words. if it really is only going to be three rate cuts in 2024, that is certainly not going to cause investors to run a victory lap at all. for you to say to them oh we'll be at 4 1/2% by the end of the year that has nothing to do the 0% they're asking for and begging for like babies who want their pacifiers f he stands pat three cuts this year, investors will not be happy, charles. charles: what is remarkable to me, how much of the rally is baked under the assumption the fed will cut, five, six, seven times this year. >> that is exactly right. we'll see. charles: danielle, thank you very much. time for some mail. i love hearing from you, particularly on the wages. people are frustrated about the government data. my job dropped their hours. now i have to look at the schedule try to get work every day. another viewer, so many announced layoffs last month. wait for
fed is accommodative, the fed is on our side. it is up, up and away from here.he was trying to tamp that down i'm not sure he succeeded? >> well look, it is going to come down to actions following his words. if it really is only going to be three rate cuts in 2024, that is certainly not going to cause investors to run a victory lap at all. for you to say to them oh we'll be at 4 1/2% by the end of the year that has nothing to do the 0% they're asking for and begging for like babies who...
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Feb 1, 2024
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haslinda: it is about the fed. more from the fed chair on the rate cut view from his briefing earlier. >> we want to see more good days, we are looking for greater confidence inflation is moving sustainably under 2%. we believe our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. if the economy of all broadly is expected it will be likely appropriate to dial back policy restraint at some point this year. i don't think is likely the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the march meeting. we are planning to begin in-depth discussions of balance sheet issues next month, we are not occurring victory at all. we think we have a ways to go. haslinda: let's get more on markets with our guest from blackrock. he pushed back, the markets still pricing in the 30% chance of a rate cut in march. what is happening? >> there are two parts to it, i think chair powell was clear that they are not keen to go in march, but at the same time, it did remind people about some of the regional banking risks s
haslinda: it is about the fed. more from the fed chair on the rate cut view from his briefing earlier. >> we want to see more good days, we are looking for greater confidence inflation is moving sustainably under 2%. we believe our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. if the economy of all broadly is expected it will be likely appropriate to dial back policy restraint at some point this year. i don't think is likely the committee will reach a level of confidence by...
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Feb 3, 2024
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chair powell: with the fed? so, we hire, for example if you look at the fed, we hire research assistance right out of college. we are very much poised to take in young people. i would just tell you if you look on our website, reach out to us, we will be very happy to interact with you. there are 12 reserve banks around the country and they are always hiring research assistants. as you get down the road, if you were to do an econ phd or general public policy and you've got some experience, and the whole system we have over 30,000 employees. but that is the 12 reserve banks and the board together. we want people who want to do public service. i will tell you, it is enormously satisfying to do public service. it is also satisfying to work in the private sector with a company and share that mission. you feel the same way in the private sector, but nothing quite like serving the public. >> thank you so much. chair powell: thank you. >> phenomenal questions. i am going to sit back down. [laughter] give a hand. [applau
chair powell: with the fed? so, we hire, for example if you look at the fed, we hire research assistance right out of college. we are very much poised to take in young people. i would just tell you if you look on our website, reach out to us, we will be very happy to interact with you. there are 12 reserve banks around the country and they are always hiring research assistants. as you get down the road, if you were to do an econ phd or general public policy and you've got some experience, and...
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Feb 5, 2024
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let's talk first about fed speak.e heard from jerome powell over the weekend and we just heard from austan goolsbee. it was adjusting making the point that he does not want to rule out a march cut. that's the policymakers view. they don't want to lock into anything but what is the investors view about when that start is? carol: we would be in the camp -- we would never be in the cap thinking of a march cut. the fed especially chairman powell over the weekend and last week got a number of fed commentaries out there really pushing out on that cut. or the cut potential. if you start cutting too soon and need to cut to aggressively that pushes back against the theory the economy is doing pretty well and we have seen stronger numbers through an chairman powell in particular was very vocal about saying we need more data, more similar doesn't have to be exactly the same but just showing our strength the overall rate of disinflation is continuing and headed toward that trajectory and the fed -- of the cpe and of 2%. katie: yo
let's talk first about fed speak.e heard from jerome powell over the weekend and we just heard from austan goolsbee. it was adjusting making the point that he does not want to rule out a march cut. that's the policymakers view. they don't want to lock into anything but what is the investors view about when that start is? carol: we would be in the camp -- we would never be in the cap thinking of a march cut. the fed especially chairman powell over the weekend and last week got a number of fed...
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Feb 13, 2024
02/24
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i think the fed has been concerned.has proven to be correct. remember, this is a bit of deja vu for them. we were here last year, the exact same place, where we had really several good months of fall inflation, and then, of course, there was the revision last year. this revision wasn't bad. but there was the revision last year, and then some squirrely numbers that happened. so upside surprises in january and february. and the fed had to reset the whole thing. and the market had to reset. what i think you need to think about here from an investment standpoint is to investment with tolerance. invest with this idea inflation numbers and the fed are not going to be priced to perfection. joe brings up a really good point that there is a debate, and we've talked about this over a month ago on this show, which is, where is the right funds rate for this economy? you had an economy that did north of 3% in the fourth quarter, it looks like we're doing somewhere between 2 to 3%, at least above potential in this quarter, so far, we
i think the fed has been concerned.has proven to be correct. remember, this is a bit of deja vu for them. we were here last year, the exact same place, where we had really several good months of fall inflation, and then, of course, there was the revision last year. this revision wasn't bad. but there was the revision last year, and then some squirrely numbers that happened. so upside surprises in january and february. and the fed had to reset the whole thing. and the market had to reset. what i...
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Feb 21, 2024
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we're getting fed speak as well. know we heard from the richmond fed president saying that the inflation data is so showing persistent price pressure, assist we have a lot more fed speak coming up. would you expect them to all pretty much deliver that same message? mike: i think so. what we've seen so far is a pretty united, if not coordinated effort to say we want to see continued progress, we're not ready to cut rates yet. it's justified basically by what weave seen in the c.p.e. we'll see what we get with the p.c.e. numbers next week. but we do have nikki bowman speaking this afternoon from the board of governs. she's been one of the more hawkish members. if they sticks to that line, it won't be a surprise, but it will add weight to the idea they're not ready to do it. tomorrow we get others that sound like a wall street law firm, but they're all giving their economic outlooks. we'll get even more information to fill in what they're thinking. the real date you want to watch is march 6. that's jay powell up on capi
we're getting fed speak as well. know we heard from the richmond fed president saying that the inflation data is so showing persistent price pressure, assist we have a lot more fed speak coming up. would you expect them to all pretty much deliver that same message? mike: i think so. what we've seen so far is a pretty united, if not coordinated effort to say we want to see continued progress, we're not ready to cut rates yet. it's justified basically by what weave seen in the c.p.e. we'll see...
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Feb 16, 2024
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>> it is definitely a balancing act for the fed.g with turning points in policy or weighing the risks in either direction of policy actions. we think the fed starts cutting in june and they cut at a pace of 25-basis points. three cuts this year. four next year. it looks difficultto cut right now after the january cpi. we have to remember there are four more cpi reports between now and the fed decision. the january number could be a distant memory by the time we get to june. >> it is great of you to join me this morning. thank you. >> thank you. >>> time now for some other big money movers. draftking shares sinking due to fourth quarter profits and missing estimates. monthly players rose to 3.5 million topping expectations. the company announced plans to buy jackpocket for $750 million. that acquisition expects to produce $260 million in revenue. you see the shares lower by 3.5%. >>> shares of toast got a boost. the restaurant software maker cut 10% of its work force or 550 employees. earnings beat estimates in the recent quarter. gr
>> it is definitely a balancing act for the fed.g with turning points in policy or weighing the risks in either direction of policy actions. we think the fed starts cutting in june and they cut at a pace of 25-basis points. three cuts this year. four next year. it looks difficultto cut right now after the january cpi. we have to remember there are four more cpi reports between now and the fed decision. the january number could be a distant memory by the time we get to june. >> it is...
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Feb 21, 2024
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louis fed president saying the fed should be cutting rates, well in march at the next meeting.nk he has a very strong point. march, may, either one of those would be sufficient and signaling in march that they will likely rate cut is coming in may would also make sense and the reason bullard said this right, is what you talked about before with real rates. you want the real fed funds rate getting toward your target right when inflation is getting toward your target. then you're really on timable. that is really difficult landing to stick. if you a proximate that very closely, now we're looking real high fed funds rates given where inflation is, given where inflation is going, they need to start cutting now in order to have those two meet. charles: i have less than a minute to go. this touches on something. the fed keeps saying we're data depend. we're all data dependent. the ability of a firm like yours scraping these earnings. why can't they be proactive, isn't it better part of valor to be late rather than early? >> the fed stance is cautious and being erring on the side of e
louis fed president saying the fed should be cutting rates, well in march at the next meeting.nk he has a very strong point. march, may, either one of those would be sufficient and signaling in march that they will likely rate cut is coming in may would also make sense and the reason bullard said this right, is what you talked about before with real rates. you want the real fed funds rate getting toward your target right when inflation is getting toward your target. then you're really on...
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Feb 2, 2024
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by the way, we also have fed chair red vice chair which clara the, former fed vice chair, rich color, coming up in just a bit. first though, your scorecard at 50 minutes to go in regulation like that. there is the dow and -- look at the s&p enough. dak, so as we end at halftime today, i was wondering out loud, hey, are we going to close above 40 9:50 on the s&p 500? i undershot that i think. are we going to close above 49 70? on the s&p 500? we'll see. over the next 45 or 55 or so minutes, that's, like obviously, the big winner amazon, beta, and those other stocks are rallying surprisingly not at all that is the netflix moment to shine, as those stocks, look at, manifested in the, year amazon helping to, following its own impressive earnings reports. apple,. it's been a little volatile in the session, following soared quarterly numbers, even though, that, has moved, arenas a lot about where this market is. let's take a look at yale. severe mostly higher after that's much stronger than expected jobs report this morning. all of it takes us to talk about a. what it will take to keep stoc
by the way, we also have fed chair red vice chair which clara the, former fed vice chair, rich color, coming up in just a bit. first though, your scorecard at 50 minutes to go in regulation like that. there is the dow and -- look at the s&p enough. dak, so as we end at halftime today, i was wondering out loud, hey, are we going to close above 40 9:50 on the s&p 500? i undershot that i think. are we going to close above 49 70? on the s&p 500? we'll see. over the next 45 or 55 or so...
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Feb 12, 2024
02/24
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>> going back to what the fed accomplished, what the fed accomplished was maintaining their credibilityey started hiking rates too late and we all saw that. charles: sure. >> and we saw inflation expectations start to get unanchored. the fed's ultimate goal is price stability. if everybody is talking about prices and how fast prices are going up then the fed is not doing their job. the new york fed does a survey of consumers, it just came out this morning, inflation in that measure which is three years forward, that is at the lowest rate since 2012. what the fed really accomplished inflation has come down but the consumer is also more comfortable that the future inflation environment will be one more normal and we'll not have a repeat of what we had 24 months ago. charles: could the slip side of that be a comfortable consumer with the stock market at all-time highs? home prices relatively high, certainly compared to the last, if you owned your home for five or 10 years, the wealth effect, couldn't all this work against the fed in the first place? the street is looking for six rate cuts.
>> going back to what the fed accomplished, what the fed accomplished was maintaining their credibilityey started hiking rates too late and we all saw that. charles: sure. >> and we saw inflation expectations start to get unanchored. the fed's ultimate goal is price stability. if everybody is talking about prices and how fast prices are going up then the fed is not doing their job. the new york fed does a survey of consumers, it just came out this morning, inflation in that measure...
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Feb 2, 2024
02/24
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this fed is a data dependent fed.ket never pay that much attention to revisions, but it is extremely important. we had negative revisions all last year, another set of revisions today. if the revisions are weak, it gives the fed that confidence to start normalizing. we are going from very high positive real rates north. i think revisions are important for the fed. the market still has to do some work to pay attention to it. lisa: we learned a lot from the press conference, the buyers towards cutting rates and no way are they going to be cutting rates. when we say data dependent, what are we talking about? yesterday, we saw ism manufacturing coming in stronger than affected with prices paid surging the most since december of 2020. where do you place that immaculate disinflation? priya: i am glad you ring that up. immaculate disinflation is key to the soft landing and key to why the fed is softening. the good deflation we have seen, the fed thinks that is done that is why i took less out of the ism manufacturing, becaus
this fed is a data dependent fed.ket never pay that much attention to revisions, but it is extremely important. we had negative revisions all last year, another set of revisions today. if the revisions are weak, it gives the fed that confidence to start normalizing. we are going from very high positive real rates north. i think revisions are important for the fed. the market still has to do some work to pay attention to it. lisa: we learned a lot from the press conference, the buyers towards...
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and as you been saying for the haas few guests, look, the fed -- the last few guests, look, the fed,he market is still thinking there could be a rate cut in march which, obviously with the jobs number today, that's going to make it a little bit difficult. but, again, it just has to do with whether or not there's going to be restrictive policy or it's going to be easing. and so the market is, it's pretty optimistic right now -- charles: it really is. >> i can tell you -- [laughter] charles: do you feel like it's over the skis though? is this too optimistic for you? >> well, i mean, look at how narrow the recovery's been, right? how much of the stock market recovery and what is driving it is coming from those top seven stocks? the mag magnificent seven. so it's a really narrow breadth of market right now. so the question is, how long will the fed if stay here? charles, you and i know that they always overstay their welcome. so with numbers like we saw this morning that are pretty muddy, it's difficult to say just what that job number mean, we've got to see the revisions when those come
and as you been saying for the haas few guests, look, the fed -- the last few guests, look, the fed,he market is still thinking there could be a rate cut in march which, obviously with the jobs number today, that's going to make it a little bit difficult. but, again, it just has to do with whether or not there's going to be restrictive policy or it's going to be easing. and so the market is, it's pretty optimistic right now -- charles: it really is. >> i can tell you -- [laughter]...
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Feb 6, 2024
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wait to hear more fed speak and a whole lot of earnings is what the week is about. >> a bunch of fed speak beginning in about an hour. let's get to post 9, the judge and "the half." >>> carl, thanks so much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour, navigating this narrow market are several members of our investment committee making bold new moves around the mega caps. we'll discuss and debate the road ahead for this rally. joining me for the hour, stephanie link, jim lebenthal, shannon saccocia and josh brown. i'll take you to the markets. good for the dow about 60 points. the s&p is negative. the nasdaq is, too. we'll get to that and to these really interesting moves i know you're going to want to hear about. we do have breaking headlines now from cleveland fed president loretta mester, who is speaking now, and says the following. labor market strength, strong spending data allow the fed to hold rates at current levels. she's a voting member, too. keep that in mind. if the economy evolves as expected, quote rates later this year would be too so
wait to hear more fed speak and a whole lot of earnings is what the week is about. >> a bunch of fed speak beginning in about an hour. let's get to post 9, the judge and "the half." >>> carl, thanks so much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour, navigating this narrow market are several members of our investment committee making bold new moves around the mega caps. we'll discuss and debate the road ahead for this...
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Feb 13, 2024
02/24
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back to the story around the cpi and what it could mean for the fed. fed cut in question with u.s. inflation data on the debt. fed officials reiterating it is too soon to ease policy. we have heard that before reiterated overnight. that's as markets await that cpi print for the month of january. take a listen. >> i think it's too soon to have an expectation that what we take to measure or project when and how much i think we might be lowering the policy. i think the progress that we are making on inflation is very positive. as long as we have continued progress at the current policy rate, i think at some point it will be appropriate for us to lower the federal funds rate. i don't see that in the immediate future. i don't want to prejudge what our decisions might be going forward this year. tom: the median estimate of our survey suggest the headline number will drop below 3%, down from last month's print of 3.4%. kriti gupta joins us. but part of this inflation print are you going to be looking at, scrutinizing when it comes out later? >> it's a seesaw between the services and goods
back to the story around the cpi and what it could mean for the fed. fed cut in question with u.s. inflation data on the debt. fed officials reiterating it is too soon to ease policy. we have heard that before reiterated overnight. that's as markets await that cpi print for the month of january. take a listen. >> i think it's too soon to have an expectation that what we take to measure or project when and how much i think we might be lowering the policy. i think the progress that we are...
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Feb 5, 2024
02/24
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the fed is on path to price stability. but, they are committed to fully with story and that's restoring price stability there. pandemic affects and inflation. they don't see the economic turmoil of china as having a big impact on the u.s.. we have talked a lot about as to whether that sported deflation rate spiral could it impact major economies outside china. annabelle: right. we are seeing the story of u.s. strength and china not playing too much into the sinking of the fed. the market reaction is clear. yields continuing to move higher. following the friday session, block esther u.s. jobs report telling us that the u.s. economy is really powering ahead. we saw that reflected in the market reaction. u.s. stocks really liked the tune of that. we saw japan just coming online at the outside. let's look at korea. we have not seen the kospi trading yet. japan stocks moving to the upside. the kospi seeing if good news is flowing across the session. so far not the same story. a little weakness creeping in. we also have aussie s
the fed is on path to price stability. but, they are committed to fully with story and that's restoring price stability there. pandemic affects and inflation. they don't see the economic turmoil of china as having a big impact on the u.s.. we have talked a lot about as to whether that sported deflation rate spiral could it impact major economies outside china. annabelle: right. we are seeing the story of u.s. strength and china not playing too much into the sinking of the fed. the market...
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Feb 1, 2024
02/24
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fed chairman jay powell taking a march rate cut off the table steve liesman will break down the fed'sges right now. "squawk box" coming right back f. setting trends is our business. we need to scale with customer demand... in real time. (jen) so we partner with verizon. their solution for us? a private 5g network. (ella) we now get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. our customers get what they want, when they want it. (jen) now we're even smarter and ready for what's next. (vo) achieve enterprise intelligence. it's your vision, it's your verizon. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading. and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly. ♪♪ [storms sound] whatever weather comes your way [wind and snow sounds] weathertech has
fed chairman jay powell taking a march rate cut off the table steve liesman will break down the fed'sges right now. "squawk box" coming right back f. setting trends is our business. we need to scale with customer demand... in real time. (jen) so we partner with verizon. their solution for us? a private 5g network. (ella) we now get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. our customers get what they want, when they want...
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Feb 29, 2024
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so will this change the fed's easing timeline?ning me now is james bryson, and our own economics reporter steve liesman is here, as well thank you both for being here. steve, as i customarily do, i'll start with you for the bigger picture. how important was this pce read to the overall picture for the fed and rates? >> well, it's something that they have already incorporated some of the markets already incorporated it. it was spot-on in terms of the economists taking the cpi, coming up with a good estimate on the pce, and it came in as expected, which was higher than expected, and it's a reason why the fed is being less aggressive about the idea of cutting interest rates at the same time, it's a number that many people think is a bit of an anomaly relative to the trend of inflation coming down i was very glad to see that jay had this call of may rate cuts, which was my call, and i know he think there is's more risk around it. but look, if you get it back on track for a couple more months before the may meeting, i don't think it's
so will this change the fed's easing timeline?ning me now is james bryson, and our own economics reporter steve liesman is here, as well thank you both for being here. steve, as i customarily do, i'll start with you for the bigger picture. how important was this pce read to the overall picture for the fed and rates? >> well, it's something that they have already incorporated some of the markets already incorporated it. it was spot-on in terms of the economists taking the cpi, coming up...
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Feb 22, 2024
02/24
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i think you have to look around and say how is fed -- the fed getting greater confidence.e pce. that is the kind of environment that leads to you needed the narrowness that has supported the market in recent times to continue to be very constructive. that is a risk reward path. >> how much weight are you putting on the january data for 2024? luke: not too much pride the january effect does matter insofar as its influencing expectations. the forecast we track saying this is a risk of leading this into february grade i think right now it's reset the clock on the degree of confidence the fed needs and somewhat raise the bar that's required. does it change our view fundamentally? not very much. does it change the balance of risks to risk assets, a little bit. jonathan: your foreign-exchange call just in case lisa reaches over and punches you. luke: we think the dollar is a good place to be especially relative to g10 and that is an assessment of the changing relative risks. persistent inflation rates has become more and more central. it is the way to protect against that enviro
i think you have to look around and say how is fed -- the fed getting greater confidence.e pce. that is the kind of environment that leads to you needed the narrowness that has supported the market in recent times to continue to be very constructive. that is a risk reward path. >> how much weight are you putting on the january data for 2024? luke: not too much pride the january effect does matter insofar as its influencing expectations. the forecast we track saying this is a risk of...
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Feb 27, 2024
02/24
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also fed speak may give us a sense of where the fed may be heading or when the fed's rate cut might bes of the markets in asia, we are keeping a close watch on china. csi 300 index swinging between gains and losses losing momentum after rebounding from five-year lows. investors taking a breather, consolidating concerns about china's punishing quads for selling lots of shares. trepidation once again. surging as much as 18% after it eat estimates, raising its price . in the fx space, we are keeping an eye on the yen, higher versus dollar up. still hovering above the 150 level. this is on the back of the hotter than expected cpi data. we are seeing movements and japanese assets. stocks giving up earlier gains. thanks up by 2%. jgb two-year yields are at the highest level since 2011. of course, front and center is that yen level. the weaker yen has given japanese stocks a boost. in terms of bond market yields, trading higher in terms of what we saw for treasuries. we had yields higher by three basis points across the curve. let's delve deeper. mark cranfield is with us. it is consolidating
also fed speak may give us a sense of where the fed may be heading or when the fed's rate cut might bes of the markets in asia, we are keeping a close watch on china. csi 300 index swinging between gains and losses losing momentum after rebounding from five-year lows. investors taking a breather, consolidating concerns about china's punishing quads for selling lots of shares. trepidation once again. surging as much as 18% after it eat estimates, raising its price . in the fx space, we are...
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Feb 20, 2024
02/24
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it is a complicated economy out there with a lot of fed speak ahead.oming up, the biggest merger this year, the stock of the hour next. a lot of complications to think through. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh that first time you take a step back. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy. ♪ sonali: this is "bloomberg markets" and i am sonali basak, and it is time now for the stock of the hour. capital when agreed to by discovered others all stock deal to create the largest -- discover in a $35 billion deal. the reality of the situation is you have two massive companies with slightly different consumer bases. one major question out t
it is a complicated economy out there with a lot of fed speak ahead.oming up, the biggest merger this year, the stock of the hour next. a lot of complications to think through. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh...
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Feb 1, 2024
02/24
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they are maybe waiting for the fed. it is not only the fed cutting. everybody cuts a bit.we see most g10 currencies on average 3%-2% weakening of the u.s. dollar against the other currencies. in that sense they you -- yen already sticks out when we have a 140 price target. paul: just getting lines on the terminal. from gorge men, economists are pushing back now on their forecast for the first fed rate cut. veering away from marge, now looking at may as a possibility for the first round of easing from the fed. you will expect a fair bit of repricing around fed expectations in terms of easing added the coming few hours i would imagine. before we leave you, i want your call on china as well. you mentioned it a moment ago. do you feel like there is a growing disconnect between what policymakers in china are saying and what the market wants to hear? how will this impact assets in china in the coming weeks? hartmut: i think that's fair. many investors would like to see a faster pace. then again, i can to some extent understand china opening the floodgates for all sorts of levera
they are maybe waiting for the fed. it is not only the fed cutting. everybody cuts a bit.we see most g10 currencies on average 3%-2% weakening of the u.s. dollar against the other currencies. in that sense they you -- yen already sticks out when we have a 140 price target. paul: just getting lines on the terminal. from gorge men, economists are pushing back now on their forecast for the first fed rate cut. veering away from marge, now looking at may as a possibility for the first round of...
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Feb 16, 2024
02/24
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the fed?i would be shocked if the fed cut rates in march. that's just because of the numbers. we've seen a number of different numbers over the last two months. powell going on "60 minutes" saying he doesn't see march where he can cut rates. what does that mean for my clients? my clients are not buying housing. the housing numbers, rates are over 7% on a 30-year fixed. folks are staying where they are. clients have been in their house for 20, 25, 30 years. baby boomers might want to move down to florida, but they're not doing it. and real estate hasn't budged that much, either. for all those reasons, i'm thinking that many of the clients i talked to don't want to do anything until the fed has made up their mind when they're going to lower rates, and we're all looking at the numbers, because it's affecting businesses that want to invest this their businesses. it's affecting folks that want to buy homes. we're just watching and waiting to see what's going to happen. >> correct me if i'm wrong he
the fed?i would be shocked if the fed cut rates in march. that's just because of the numbers. we've seen a number of different numbers over the last two months. powell going on "60 minutes" saying he doesn't see march where he can cut rates. what does that mean for my clients? my clients are not buying housing. the housing numbers, rates are over 7% on a 30-year fixed. folks are staying where they are. clients have been in their house for 20, 25, 30 years. baby boomers might want to...
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Feb 19, 2024
02/24
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what are you expecting from the fed? _ market. what are you expecting from the fed?t. what are you expecting from the fed? because there'sl market. what are you expecting | from the fed? because there's a lot of speculation on when the rate cut might come? the data with the fed, seeing what willl with the fed, seeing what will be there this week. investors will be stocking them up because we already know that the fed will be looking at more recent data than the most recent data than the most recent policy meeting. i do think that investors are looking towards june think that investors are looking towardsjune at think that investors are looking towards june at the earliest for a us interest rate cut. that is a big push back from where we were six weeks ago where we thought that it would be march. we've shifted back to may. i think that the economic data is very strong, if you look at the ppi and the inflation and so forth. looking atjune as the earliest, subject to change depending on the data. in subject to change depending on the data. ., , ., the data. in other new
what are you expecting from the fed? _ market. what are you expecting from the fed?t. what are you expecting from the fed? because there'sl market. what are you expecting | from the fed? because there's a lot of speculation on when the rate cut might come? the data with the fed, seeing what willl with the fed, seeing what will be there this week. investors will be stocking them up because we already know that the fed will be looking at more recent data than the most recent data than the most...
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Feb 9, 2024
02/24
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the fed pushing back on rate cuts. >> you've got a number of fed commentators really pushing back. >>ushback. >> pushback -- >> pushback on the right cuts. >> the fed has signaled they are done raising interest rates. >> locked and loaded to cut rates if needed. >> await and see. >> wait until inflation gives them the data they want to see. >> the committee is struggling to catch up how quickly the data have moved. >> one variable the fed is looking at is core cpi. what we have seen over the last few months has been core cpi coming down. >> we have scar tissue from this inflation. >> the economy has been strong. we have the luxury of waiting. >> we need to see more data before we can decide when exactly they are likely to cut rates and by how much. >> there is really no rush for the fed to come in and cut rates soon. sonali: with those changing expectations about rate cuts, i wanted to point out a point of the curve. i wanted to talk about the 10 year. treasury issuance happening at the longer end of the curve. a lot of volatility along the way. what are we seeing exactly? about six m
the fed pushing back on rate cuts. >> you've got a number of fed commentators really pushing back. >>ushback. >> pushback -- >> pushback on the right cuts. >> the fed has signaled they are done raising interest rates. >> locked and loaded to cut rates if needed. >> await and see. >> wait until inflation gives them the data they want to see. >> the committee is struggling to catch up how quickly the data have moved. >> one variable the...
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Feb 2, 2024
02/24
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we have the banks fed lending survey, the latest u.s. services, pmi.ngs continue to roll out tuesday. thursday, all eyes will be on janet yellen testifying in the senate. friday, we get the u.s. cpi revisions. for my final thought, let's look at the fed speak coming up next week. a lot of people setting out to read the tea leaves. rafael kicks it off on monday. followed by loretta and neil. it's a very busy week ahead. a lot of divergence on what we might see in terms of expectations for rate cuts, quantitative tightening and the impacts on the market all around. especially the banking system where we are starting to see some fragility once again trade this comes after we have seen a round trip in two year yields, 20 basis points higher on the day. a lot of economic data ahead. from new york, that does it for us. same time, same place next week. this is "bloomberg real yield." and this is bloomberg. ♪ xfinity rewards presents: '1st and 10gs.' xfinity is giving away ten grand to a new lucky winner for every first and ten during the big game. enter daily
we have the banks fed lending survey, the latest u.s. services, pmi.ngs continue to roll out tuesday. thursday, all eyes will be on janet yellen testifying in the senate. friday, we get the u.s. cpi revisions. for my final thought, let's look at the fed speak coming up next week. a lot of people setting out to read the tea leaves. rafael kicks it off on monday. followed by loretta and neil. it's a very busy week ahead. a lot of divergence on what we might see in terms of expectations for rate...
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Feb 7, 2024
02/24
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officials on the fed's outlook.ur next guest says the market has already discounted cuts. it is interesting how we operate within this environment where fed speak is more important than ever, and yet, the market continues to out and outpace expectations. >> pleasure to see both of you. the fed's comments matter less and less. we have already discounted five or six rate cuts. the market will get there or the fed will get there. it is just jawboning until we are there. we have already discounted cuts in the market. and we had a strong treasury option where people were anticipating. what matters is the real pace of data that comes through. >> if you try to draw similarities between how investors feel about the u.s. market right now and how investors feel about china, minds are pretty set, right? they see what they see regardless of what policymakers necessarily are signaling and doing. what i want to know is -- how do you see the chinese economy is being -- as being after the taylor swift concert? >> you are at the tay
officials on the fed's outlook.ur next guest says the market has already discounted cuts. it is interesting how we operate within this environment where fed speak is more important than ever, and yet, the market continues to out and outpace expectations. >> pleasure to see both of you. the fed's comments matter less and less. we have already discounted five or six rate cuts. the market will get there or the fed will get there. it is just jawboning until we are there. we have already...
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Feb 12, 2024
02/24
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is the fed right now trying to keep everyone from pushing too hard for rate cuts sooner than the fed thinks is possible? >> good morning. i think that is one of the clear messages you hear from fed speakers. expect six or seven rate cuts this year is optimistic. it seems the fed is pushing for that. if the market continues to expect a lot of easing, that means you will see considerable financial conditions easing which increases the risk of inflation pressures picking up. communication is the key part of the fed task. of course, they will watch the data. they are still data dependent. that is why you will see the data continue to be important. >> if consumer prices come in where expected, what do you think then will be the reaction from the fed? >> i think it is in line with what the fed is expecting. it doesn't change that trajectory. we have been hearing that they are thinking three or four cuts. less and what the market is expecting. if you have a cpi in line with what the fed is expecting, that means the fed will stick to the policy. it should mean that over the coming weeks and
is the fed right now trying to keep everyone from pushing too hard for rate cuts sooner than the fed thinks is possible? >> good morning. i think that is one of the clear messages you hear from fed speakers. expect six or seven rate cuts this year is optimistic. it seems the fed is pushing for that. if the market continues to expect a lot of easing, that means you will see considerable financial conditions easing which increases the risk of inflation pressures picking up. communication is...
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Feb 16, 2024
02/24
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this is echo calls by atlanta fed president raphael bostic on cnpc and other fed officials making themments. inflation progress has been remarkable. among the risk is the positive inflation momentum may prove hard to sustain over time. the inflation decline results from both improvements in the supply chain and slowing demand, but those supply chain improvements could prove to be near the end, there's a risk that includes slower inflation progress. she is uncertain whether better productivity numbers would continue. the ongoing momentum is a risk to inflation progress. the fed is out there talking monolithcally in one voice. >> interesting to hear from two of the speakers today. very good stuff, steve. >>> let's bring in our own mike santoli here. mike, the markets are ticking higher shaking off the ppi report perhaps after it did with the cpi report. i guess it took a session longer to did so and now we have a reiteration of raphael bostic. >> courtney, for weeks we've had this real world experiment on did the stock market need rate cuts soon and lots of them thereafter to sustain th
this is echo calls by atlanta fed president raphael bostic on cnpc and other fed officials making themments. inflation progress has been remarkable. among the risk is the positive inflation momentum may prove hard to sustain over time. the inflation decline results from both improvements in the supply chain and slowing demand, but those supply chain improvements could prove to be near the end, there's a risk that includes slower inflation progress. she is uncertain whether better productivity...
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Feb 20, 2024
02/24
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how do you think the fed will receive this? emily: i am not the fed and i am not a wal-mart expert.owever, i think powell would like this report because if you think about what the fed is trying to do here, they want consumers to pull back just a little bit. if you look into what she financial officer john rainey was saying of walmart, he said consumers -- chief financial officer john rainey was saying of walmart, he said consumers were spending less per trip but shopping more frequently. of course walmart wants people to buy the big ticket items every 10 they shop but consumers are still fairly resilient, looking for deals, spending less but that theoretically should take some air out of the economy but not too much to tip us into a hard landing. my theory is that the lamar report is giving us a soft landing vibe -- the walmart report is giving us a soft landing vibe. katie: consumers are being choice full but still spending. i will test that with gargi after the break. emily graffeo, good to see you. home depot shares are down after the company reported a fifth consecutive sales d
how do you think the fed will receive this? emily: i am not the fed and i am not a wal-mart expert.owever, i think powell would like this report because if you think about what the fed is trying to do here, they want consumers to pull back just a little bit. if you look into what she financial officer john rainey was saying of walmart, he said consumers -- chief financial officer john rainey was saying of walmart, he said consumers were spending less per trip but shopping more frequently. of...
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Feb 14, 2024
02/24
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we will hear from the chicago fed president and the fed vice chair later today.munication from them whatsoever based on yesterday's print? lisa: i was wondering, does this matter? is there anything relevant from these comments? there will be, but it is compelling that analysts are saying it is important to know whether or not they say this is just one data print. if they do, that could be viewed as dovish, and you could see that pushed into markets where we expect cut rates in june and we progressed from there. if they don't and say this is concerning or we need to look more carefully and we need to see super court come down more aggressively, that will be treated as hawkish, and that will tip the scales. jonathan: first reaction from the fed later this morning. the latest on the politics, housebuilding by the narrowest margin to impeach other mayorkas after failing in their first attempt last week. he became the second cabinet member in history to become impeached, the last one was nearly 150 years ago, and the effort is likely to die in the senate, where a two
we will hear from the chicago fed president and the fed vice chair later today.munication from them whatsoever based on yesterday's print? lisa: i was wondering, does this matter? is there anything relevant from these comments? there will be, but it is compelling that analysts are saying it is important to know whether or not they say this is just one data print. if they do, that could be viewed as dovish, and you could see that pushed into markets where we expect cut rates in june and we...
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keep in mind the atlanta fed did.p, analogy, like the marathon, you are at the seven mile mark and still have 18 miles to run in the race, we'll see how it goes. you can't cut rates, directly, people say higher interest rates are restrictive. look at the numbers. what is it restricting? it isn't stricting a whole lot. jay powell is correct, look, we can wait. the stock market at all-time highs. the economy is moving along. where is the restriction? who is being pinched. now somebody is but economy-wide you really aren't, and if you aren't being restricted then you know doesn't have to really rush to cut rates and risk being arthur burns. charles: you know, jim, you mentioned like how this dynamic has been in place for a couple years with the street wanting the fed to be accommodative. i got to think it goes pack to alan greenspan and how he got the title of the mace slow. i don't know. i would rather see the stock market up because the economy is great. i think that connection has been severed for a long time. i want
keep in mind the atlanta fed did.p, analogy, like the marathon, you are at the seven mile mark and still have 18 miles to run in the race, we'll see how it goes. you can't cut rates, directly, people say higher interest rates are restrictive. look at the numbers. what is it restricting? it isn't stricting a whole lot. jay powell is correct, look, we can wait. the stock market at all-time highs. the economy is moving along. where is the restriction? who is being pinched. now somebody is but...
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Feb 13, 2024
02/24
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it is not the fed preferred data point on inflation. what do you expect it to show and how might that move the markets? >> i think it will be cooler than expected, if not as expected. that should flip the futures around a little bit. it is anyone's game. we had the december numbers revised lower. we will find out if that encourages the fed to move the timetable. >> let's talk about the markets today. we are in the middle of earnings season. we have seen really magnificent ones. we are seeing the magnificent seven fuelling a large part of the sentiment and growth that we're doing. we had predictions of the broader rally. when are we going to see that? >> ultimately we will see that in the coming months. perhaps we won't see that until the fed decides to lower interest rates which might not happen until layer this year. equities will like that. it has to be lowering rates because things are strong, not because we are seeing cracks in the system here. that's why i have my eyes on the fed and really where my question lies is why are we lowe
it is not the fed preferred data point on inflation. what do you expect it to show and how might that move the markets? >> i think it will be cooler than expected, if not as expected. that should flip the futures around a little bit. it is anyone's game. we had the december numbers revised lower. we will find out if that encourages the fed to move the timetable. >> let's talk about the markets today. we are in the middle of earnings season. we have seen really magnificent ones. we...
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Feb 23, 2024
02/24
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fed to be cutting rates. it would call into question, if we don't get any cuts this year, again, not our base case yet but a rising probability, could that challenge yields? >> i will bring up what someone said today, i think he will agree with this today. don't be surprised if you're used financial conditions fueled by a mania and pushing the fed into the later cut than would otherwise be the case. we need to think about this now, to? the incredible run in the stock market. the alleged, looser, conditions because of a big stock market rally? >> it's not just a big stock market rally, it is also credit spreads. because of the better economy credit spreads have come in a lot. they are very, very, ty. which just says the credit markets feeling good, feeling happy about the outlook. that is one of the reasons financial conditions are so easy. financial conditions typically correlate with better growth. they are considered to be stimulative to growth when they are this easy. does that work against the fed? >> wou
fed to be cutting rates. it would call into question, if we don't get any cuts this year, again, not our base case yet but a rising probability, could that challenge yields? >> i will bring up what someone said today, i think he will agree with this today. don't be surprised if you're used financial conditions fueled by a mania and pushing the fed into the later cut than would otherwise be the case. we need to think about this now, to? the incredible run in the stock market. the alleged,...
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Feb 9, 2024
02/24
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this will make a real difference to the fed. of people are saying this will be the main data point that could move markets. what are the whisperings that you hear? whether an upside surprise or downside surprise is more likely to trigger? michael: we are getting analyst calls that say before you read this, we might have to change it after the adjustments. what they are saying is we should see a reasonably large drop in the cpi. especially on the year-over-year basis. not only because energy has gone down but because base affects our falling out. big increases. that will fall out of the data the sign. jonathan: wednesday last week, you talked about the news conference. there was a take away from some people after chairman powell spoke in that news conference that he was struggling to reflect on the consensus of the many and maybe it was breaking down a bit. based on the fed speak we have heard this week, it feels like they are on the same page. have you noticed any subtle differences? michael: nothing that would cause you to thin
this will make a real difference to the fed. of people are saying this will be the main data point that could move markets. what are the whisperings that you hear? whether an upside surprise or downside surprise is more likely to trigger? michael: we are getting analyst calls that say before you read this, we might have to change it after the adjustments. what they are saying is we should see a reasonably large drop in the cpi. especially on the year-over-year basis. not only because energy has...
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Feb 13, 2024
02/24
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jonathan: to sound fed up with this conversation already. lisa: it is not that i'm fed up.ll not get an answer. jonathan: howdy plan to get through 2024 when it is the middle of february and you're already sick of politics, sick of monetary policy. lisa: give my kids something to do and we can have this rsation. jonathan: the second hour of bloomberg surveillance is up next. ♪ i think he's having a midlife crisis i'm not. you got us t-mobile home internet lite. after a week of streaming they knocked us down... ...to dial up speeds. like from the 90s. great times. all i can do say is that my life is pre-- i like watching the puddles gather rain. -hey, your mom and i procreated to that song. oh, ew! i think you've said enough. why don't we just switch to xfinity like everyone else? then you would know what year it was. i know what year it is. it does seems that if it is steady as she goes the fed will cut rates this year. we should be in a position where they will be confident to cut. you will probably see a cutting cycle in may. we will see an economy doing well because of t
jonathan: to sound fed up with this conversation already. lisa: it is not that i'm fed up.ll not get an answer. jonathan: howdy plan to get through 2024 when it is the middle of february and you're already sick of politics, sick of monetary policy. lisa: give my kids something to do and we can have this rsation. jonathan: the second hour of bloomberg surveillance is up next. ♪ i think he's having a midlife crisis i'm not. you got us t-mobile home internet lite. after a week of streaming they...
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Feb 12, 2024
02/24
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. >> the fed put is back. on the landing side for banks. so if your fear is what's happening with bank balance sheets and the commercial real estate going to the regional banks, two trillion comes to you by the end of 2025, it's not that they're all gonna be great investments. it's not the fed is gonna be there to backstop it. and therefore, it's not a systemic risk. so if you're an investor, and you say that's where i'm really concerned about, the long in variable lags and see our e, and what that means, to some bank balance sheets, i think what we've learned is, you know, it's gonna be a cushion there. >> to that point, if there were -- i don't want to say the fed -- if there were losses to be taken, it wasn't silicon valley bank. the idea that no uninsured depositors in that bank could absorb even amman -- modest amount of losses to spare some of the pain or eventually pain on taxpayers it's unfathomable. we had this conversation about the fed stepping in, effectively, internationalized the banking sector.
. >> the fed put is back. on the landing side for banks. so if your fear is what's happening with bank balance sheets and the commercial real estate going to the regional banks, two trillion comes to you by the end of 2025, it's not that they're all gonna be great investments. it's not the fed is gonna be there to backstop it. and therefore, it's not a systemic risk. so if you're an investor, and you say that's where i'm really concerned about, the long in variable lags and see our e, and...
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Feb 24, 2024
02/24
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because you have to remember the fed is trimming their balance sheet. means they're selling bonds are not buying them it's like that bank is not making the loan through the fed is saying i bought a truly at last you're not buying a chilean this year, right customer coup coos and byt trillion? that is a tightening move. the fed can cut a little and sorted be not really doing anything, showing off a little but not really doing anything. making a big thing you're having a drink at the party and throwing it back over your shoulder look i'm drinking. >> by the way up the fed cuts near the election are going to be criticized for getting involved in the election interfering that this that is weathers a little window of time. >> is going to cut near the election because that's a gig. he gives you the job, really? the supreme court justice they act because t who give them the job? life on the bench but we all who give them the job. i guess you gave them the job guaranteed that's incredible or quick before you go, cantor fitzgerald incredible growth story where d
because you have to remember the fed is trimming their balance sheet. means they're selling bonds are not buying them it's like that bank is not making the loan through the fed is saying i bought a truly at last you're not buying a chilean this year, right customer coup coos and byt trillion? that is a tightening move. the fed can cut a little and sorted be not really doing anything, showing off a little but not really doing anything. making a big thing you're having a drink at the party and...
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Feb 28, 2024
02/24
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let's get back to macro and the fed. bond traders no longer expecting that the fed will lower interest rates by more than 75 basis points this year, bringing their view in line with the fed's dot plot brainless bring in mliv strategist mark cranfield. this felt inevitable, the move towards that view of 75 points by the and that of this year, what is the risk for treasuries from here? >> the irony is it has taken traders so long to get in line with the fed's view of three dot plots, they might be too late. they have got gdp data today, the important pce data tomorrow. looking at the general picture, we have had a strong resilient u.s. economy. it might well be that the federal reserve needs to dial back on three rate cuts, and i shall he look for two rate cuts this year. we might get a position where the dot plots are change in march anyway to reflect the fact that the fed can afford to wait a lot longer until they start lowering rates. which is been part of the message from fed's figures recently. they are certainly in n
let's get back to macro and the fed. bond traders no longer expecting that the fed will lower interest rates by more than 75 basis points this year, bringing their view in line with the fed's dot plot brainless bring in mliv strategist mark cranfield. this felt inevitable, the move towards that view of 75 points by the and that of this year, what is the risk for treasuries from here? >> the irony is it has taken traders so long to get in line with the fed's view of three dot plots, they...
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if everything is so great atlanta fed forecasting 4.2% gdp this quarter, why on earth is fed contemplatingt all much less talking about potentially in march i think this wage number amplifies that, 353 headline number underscores the point i made about wild seasonal adjustments for the month of january. again, when we flip the calendar from december to january, the economy losses 3.2 million jobs, all holiday workers disappear and the ability of the bls to measure with any -- you know -- fine point is will ridiculous i think this number will be revised lower no one will pay attention to that other than -- cheryl: revisions -- for december, revised december, to 333,000 initial number we got for december 216,000, that is revision for month of december that is incredible, it is -- i don't know even know what to say about revisions. maria: , wage number something this market is focused on, but your thoughts. >> it is we go back to that sort of powell pressure olz when an knows what he sees has access to before ahead of time, obviously, the reason given equity, equity gains up sort of takes fed
if everything is so great atlanta fed forecasting 4.2% gdp this quarter, why on earth is fed contemplatingt all much less talking about potentially in march i think this wage number amplifies that, 353 headline number underscores the point i made about wild seasonal adjustments for the month of january. again, when we flip the calendar from december to january, the economy losses 3.2 million jobs, all holiday workers disappear and the ability of the bls to measure with any -- you know -- fine...
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Feb 20, 2024
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there is expectations around the fed rate cut.e first part of the year, we have come away with that with the pushback we've seen from fed officials to the easing expectations. as well as those hard nsb numbers, cpi, ppi, a lot of the economic data out of the u.s. is coming in strong to stable. now, we are at a stage where the market expectations are pretty much aligned to what the fed wants to see. back in december in the fed's dot plot, they expected three rate cuts this year in the market is now expecting 80, 90 basis points. pretty much aligned to what the fed wanted compared to 125 basis cuts. i do think that from here on the part for the dollar to run higher, it's very high there because we priced in pretty much what the fed wanted to see. and from here on is just about when that first rate cut comes. i do still feel a lot of support in the way of the dollar because of this u.s. exceptionalism story and because of the high-yield the dollar offers, but the upside is looking rather tough from here. tom: tough upside for the dol
there is expectations around the fed rate cut.e first part of the year, we have come away with that with the pushback we've seen from fed officials to the easing expectations. as well as those hard nsb numbers, cpi, ppi, a lot of the economic data out of the u.s. is coming in strong to stable. now, we are at a stage where the market expectations are pretty much aligned to what the fed wants to see. back in december in the fed's dot plot, they expected three rate cuts this year in the market is...
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Feb 21, 2024
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the fed has fed funds above 5%, real yields that are high.need to take out insurance against future economic damage, so it is not so much we worry about the economy today but about in 12 months time if the fed does not come in fairly aggressively. annmarie: does this mean you think the inflationary pressures really were -- i hate to use the word transitory, but basically they are dissipating and we are going back to a pre-pandemic inflationary regime? mike: probably of bit more aggressive than pre-pandemic. people talk about near shoring, on ensuring, and your guest could speak to it better than i can, that will drive the trend higher than it had been pre-covid, but going back to something closer to pre-covid levels, so maybe it is 2.5% for core inflation, something like that. jonathan: you set him up, so we will go straight to him. mike schumacher of wells fargo. anthony capuano, let's talk about interest rates. what share of hotel owners now are struggling or facing difficulties when financing properties because of interest rates? mike: --
the fed has fed funds above 5%, real yields that are high.need to take out insurance against future economic damage, so it is not so much we worry about the economy today but about in 12 months time if the fed does not come in fairly aggressively. annmarie: does this mean you think the inflationary pressures really were -- i hate to use the word transitory, but basically they are dissipating and we are going back to a pre-pandemic inflationary regime? mike: probably of bit more aggressive than...
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Feb 16, 2024
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they tend to chase the fed once the fed started cutting.those in cash to not play musical chairs. if you play musical chairs, you will be the one without the chair when the music starts. lock in the yields now so you aren't left without a chair. manus: you feel there aren't healthy competition from the equity markets? the equity markets are roaring with 11 record highs so far this year. you put your cap down and you say transfer into fixed income? which is fair, but when it comes to that flow show, do you really think out of those money markets will be more high-grade credit and into sovereign? kelsey: it is probably going to be across the spectrum. we are not saying that everything needs to be -- manus: everything for us? kelsey: yes, we are not that greedy. but we do think there is a place and that has been underestimated and under allocated for good reason. if you look back 10 years ago, we were talking about a situation where the fed was at the zero lower bound and you have multiple central banks at zero.there were 30% of the global ag
they tend to chase the fed once the fed started cutting.those in cash to not play musical chairs. if you play musical chairs, you will be the one without the chair when the music starts. lock in the yields now so you aren't left without a chair. manus: you feel there aren't healthy competition from the equity markets? the equity markets are roaring with 11 record highs so far this year. you put your cap down and you say transfer into fixed income? which is fair, but when it comes to that flow...
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Mar 1, 2024
03/24
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we have the fed coming in meeting estimates.s us think perhaps three fed cuts over this year. the boj, mixed messages. one of the ministers of the boj saying something different. haidi: how much will they temper the expectations set up from the previous signaling. the target is not insight but there is that sense, to borrow the words of mary daly from the san francisco fed, the readiness is coming into sight for a number of central banks. let's look at how markets are deciphering this at the open. annabelle: from the japan perspec
we have the fed coming in meeting estimates.s us think perhaps three fed cuts over this year. the boj, mixed messages. one of the ministers of the boj saying something different. haidi: how much will they temper the expectations set up from the previous signaling. the target is not insight but there is that sense, to borrow the words of mary daly from the san francisco fed, the readiness is coming into sight for a number of central banks. let's look at how markets are deciphering this at the...