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May 3, 2024
05/24
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sonali: with the fed and u.s. jobs report this week we saw the 2-year yield slide to the lowest level in nearly a month. we were flying past that 5% level, and then you had that fed meeting, perceived as dovish, and then jobs and ism data that showed a weakening of the economy. all in all that 2-year has swung by 30 basis points this week alone. traders are looking to price in a rate cut of 25 basis points by september, expecting rates to be lower by half a percent by the january meeting next year. these expectations have been whipsawing. there is -- there are still certain members of the fed who are urging caution. governor michelle bowman, for example, saying today there are still a number of upside inflation risks. earlier this week i sat down with kkr's henry mcveigh. >> our businesses are saying, yes, there is inflation coming down, but probably hitting the 2% target is going to be quite hard. the fed has done a great job where they are, getting rates up quickly, moving aggressively, and starting to do the ta
sonali: with the fed and u.s. jobs report this week we saw the 2-year yield slide to the lowest level in nearly a month. we were flying past that 5% level, and then you had that fed meeting, perceived as dovish, and then jobs and ism data that showed a weakening of the economy. all in all that 2-year has swung by 30 basis points this week alone. traders are looking to price in a rate cut of 25 basis points by september, expecting rates to be lower by half a percent by the january meeting next...
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May 30, 2024
05/24
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in a op-ed for bloomberg, former new york fed president bill dudley he suggested that the fed needs to resume hiking to cool economy, not something the stock market wants to see, charles. charles: not at all, kelly. thank you very much. great stuff. my next guest laid out reasons why consumers are so negative. bring in discipline funds founder cio, cullen roche cullen, your work focused on necessities. this is what is really hurting folks because the price of necessities soared recently? >> right. the last few years speaks to the difference the way a lot of economists and even analysts like myself view inflation versus the way real people see inflation. i think that the fed likes to look at things like core inflation but real consumers, they focus on core necessities. i'm referring when i say core necessities, i'm referring to things like shelter, used cars, gasoline, food basically. these are the, sort of the forward modern items i would say are the most problematic for the consumer. they have all lagged wage gains. that is really important because, the way that i like to view living
in a op-ed for bloomberg, former new york fed president bill dudley he suggested that the fed needs to resume hiking to cool economy, not something the stock market wants to see, charles. charles: not at all, kelly. thank you very much. great stuff. my next guest laid out reasons why consumers are so negative. bring in discipline funds founder cio, cullen roche cullen, your work focused on necessities. this is what is really hurting folks because the price of necessities soared recently?...
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May 28, 2024
05/24
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johnson did directly pressure the fed. when i coordinate those meetings to the analysis i find increasing pressure through personal interactions is inflationary. it raises inflation expectations strongly and persistently. it does not do much to economic activity. nixon leaned heavily on the fed because he wanted to be reelected in 1972 and in the run-up to that he told the fed chair you have to ease monetary conditions. but when they used that pressure they get a very gradual increase in inflation and they don't get stimulus because the economy adjust its expectations and reacts to the loss of credibility. david: you talk about personal interactions. i am not sure merb president trump wants to meet with him i think he wants to fire him. the president publicly saying i want a different head? thomas: political pressure can take many forms. it can be exerted in public, through personal interactions. either way, the implicit threat that the president makes is that there are consequences for the fed chair such as being fired. t
johnson did directly pressure the fed. when i coordinate those meetings to the analysis i find increasing pressure through personal interactions is inflationary. it raises inflation expectations strongly and persistently. it does not do much to economic activity. nixon leaned heavily on the fed because he wanted to be reelected in 1972 and in the run-up to that he told the fed chair you have to ease monetary conditions. but when they used that pressure they get a very gradual increase in...
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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and the fed interest rate decision. and when you think about brought emerging markets, there are segments in e.m. like latin america that are not very sensitive to the fed rates, or currencies in india and korea that are sensitive to the u.s. federate. but china is slowly emerging back as a significant support for e.m. as we have talked about in the past, the middle east and domestic growth in the middle east and others is positive for e.m. we continue to see broad divergence within the e.m. space, between rate sensitive assets and more domestically oriented assets. annabelle: rate differentials of course one of the key assets being impacted by that is the japanese yen, with a big gap between the boj and what the fed does, which of course has played out in what we see for trading around the japanese currency. how long do you see that weakness persisting, or how effective do you think intervention could be if indeed we have seen it a couple times over the course of this week? pooja: the issue in japan is that inflation i
and the fed interest rate decision. and when you think about brought emerging markets, there are segments in e.m. like latin america that are not very sensitive to the fed rates, or currencies in india and korea that are sensitive to the u.s. federate. but china is slowly emerging back as a significant support for e.m. as we have talked about in the past, the middle east and domestic growth in the middle east and others is positive for e.m. we continue to see broad divergence within the e.m....
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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get ready for the countdown to the fed decision. (torstein hagen) in my simple world, there are only three things that matter in human beings. first, they have to be kind. kind. second, they have to be honest. and third, they have to be hard-working. it's very simple. wherever you are in the world, when you come to a different culture, you meet people of very different backgrounds, but you find out that they have the same ambitions and the same fears just like yourself. i'm so sure that travel is good for the world. it's really the best to engage with the locals and the destination. and i think travel helps broaden the human mind and makes us kinder. and that's fantastically valuable. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire >>> welcome to power lunch on a fed day, everybody. i'm tyler matheson. we are just four minutes away now until the fed's dec
get ready for the countdown to the fed decision. (torstein hagen) in my simple world, there are only three things that matter in human beings. first, they have to be kind. kind. second, they have to be honest. and third, they have to be hard-working. it's very simple. wherever you are in the world, when you come to a different culture, you meet people of very different backgrounds, but you find out that they have the same ambitions and the same fears just like yourself. i'm so sure that travel...
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May 17, 2024
05/24
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look at what has happened to the fed. the fed pivoted on the basis of data. it was the opposite of the pivot that they did in december when they pivoted. now they have to do a u-turn. as they are doing the u-turn and stay higher for longer, the market is going the other way. you saw what happened to the two-year, the 10-year. there are two problematic issues. how sensitive are the stubborn components of inflation and interest rates? they are not very sensitive. that is problem number one. problem number two, what implications are we getting from the economy? it is slowly weakening. once again, the fed is going to have to pivot. not on the basis of inflation numbers but the basis of the real economy numbers will pivot yet again. the big issue that i know that no one wants to discuss that i insist to understand fully is the inflation target the right target? we talk about wanting to go back to 2%. every quote you had this morning assumes the 2% is right. 2% is completely arbitrary but i understand why no one wants to talk about this. we should realize that if w
look at what has happened to the fed. the fed pivoted on the basis of data. it was the opposite of the pivot that they did in december when they pivoted. now they have to do a u-turn. as they are doing the u-turn and stay higher for longer, the market is going the other way. you saw what happened to the two-year, the 10-year. there are two problematic issues. how sensitive are the stubborn components of inflation and interest rates? they are not very sensitive. that is problem number one....
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May 2, 2024
05/24
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what really matters is what the fed thinks of this data. that's what we got clarity on at this fomc meeting. powell was very clear that they see the data still as being comfortable and collaborating with their view. it is just taking a little bit longer. at j.p. morgan still have the first cut coming in july and we have cuts thereafter into 2025. so from a bond yield perspective, yes, we do think it will drift higher depending on the fed view a little bit. if you look into 2024 and into 2025, we do see room for bond yields to decline as well. bringing us to the equity market . the way we try to figure this out is try to understand from market pricing what sort of scenarios the market is entertaining and pricing in. and since the pivot in november, we have seen significant goldilocks pricing from november all the way until march. and since then we have seen two scenarios emerge simultaneously. those are firstly, a higher for longer -- a reemergence of higher for longer. and secondly is the increasing probability of some sort of an ai bubble.
what really matters is what the fed thinks of this data. that's what we got clarity on at this fomc meeting. powell was very clear that they see the data still as being comfortable and collaborating with their view. it is just taking a little bit longer. at j.p. morgan still have the first cut coming in july and we have cuts thereafter into 2025. so from a bond yield perspective, yes, we do think it will drift higher depending on the fed view a little bit. if you look into 2024 and into 2025,...
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May 24, 2024
05/24
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the cleveland fed president and the minneapolis fed president speaking. on wednesday, the beige bump. jobless claims on thursday and bpce number friday as well as eurozone cpi. we want to show you the expectations before we let you go. the expectations are essentially flat. it shows you how hard the last mile has been to get the fed on course to the preferred set of inflation measures. of course, there is still growth expected and silly while to go to the 2% exactly -- still a wild to go to the 2% exactly. from new york, that does it for "bloomberg real yield." this is bloomberg. ♪ hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. i don't want you to move. the
the cleveland fed president and the minneapolis fed president speaking. on wednesday, the beige bump. jobless claims on thursday and bpce number friday as well as eurozone cpi. we want to show you the expectations before we let you go. the expectations are essentially flat. it shows you how hard the last mile has been to get the fed on course to the preferred set of inflation measures. of course, there is still growth expected and silly while to go to the 2% exactly -- still a wild to go to the...
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May 10, 2024
05/24
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the fed confidence to cut with messy economic data. >> the fed is looking closely at the data. >> it is looking at the totality of the data. >> wage growth is sticky. >> the fed is likely going to take a to the economy. i think later this year, we will get our first cut. >> if they don't cut in september, likely to cut in december. the first in september, another in december. >> we are looking at an inflection point. i think he's looking for a reason. >> it is rare the fed would intervene before november. will he remain patient through the election? >> there's a question of will inflation be enough by then? >> coming in hopefully moving in the direction we want to see both on inflation, in terms of restoring balance to the economy. sonali: we are looking at a double-edged sword. u.s. consumer sentiment declined in early may to a six-month low. short-term inflation expectations and concerns about the job market have picked up. what this means is the economy is softening. with inflation still high, there is a question on how quickly the fed can cut. the current expectation is at least
the fed confidence to cut with messy economic data. >> the fed is looking closely at the data. >> it is looking at the totality of the data. >> wage growth is sticky. >> the fed is likely going to take a to the economy. i think later this year, we will get our first cut. >> if they don't cut in september, likely to cut in december. the first in september, another in december. >> we are looking at an inflection point. i think he's looking for a reason....
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May 3, 2024
05/24
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>> it depends on what the fed does. i differing every thing back to the fed but it is important. if the fed were to start cutting, i think the dollar eventually, maybe next six month, will start to fall. a decline in the dollar versus the yen and the boj will not have to do what it is doing. but that is conditional on seeing some slowdown in the u.s. and some just punishment of what we've seen. jonathan: how bad is this nobody to be today? how bad does it need to be today to talk about rate because the summer? >> interesting because i think jay powell was trying to tell us not to look at nonfarm payrolls. he talked about immigration at the outset of his talk and he seemed to be making the point the reason we are having strong payroll is because we have strong immigration. if that is the case, you can't see strong payrolls as inflationary. instead, looking at other ancillary measures of job market like turnover in the job market, and keep in mind, wage growth in the u.s. if measured by the average hourly earnings, has not been very strong. it has been on a downtrend for the last s
>> it depends on what the fed does. i differing every thing back to the fed but it is important. if the fed were to start cutting, i think the dollar eventually, maybe next six month, will start to fall. a decline in the dollar versus the yen and the boj will not have to do what it is doing. but that is conditional on seeing some slowdown in the u.s. and some just punishment of what we've seen. jonathan: how bad is this nobody to be today? how bad does it need to be today to talk about...
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May 22, 2024
05/24
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charles: you think the fed will hike this powell fed? in the future. >> someone backing off this may hike. that was a joke. that was a joke. on the unemployment rate, to your point about the rate, goes up to 4.1, 4.2, charles, to that point it probably keeps going up. even if you look back in the '50s, when unemployment rate was under three, it still went up to six. go from 3, 4, ultimately up to five 1/2, six, not hard to do. we're not there yet. but it could turn quick. charles: >> going back to the '50s for just a second, not that any of us were around then, going back to the '50s, national bureau of economic research dated a recession before they even saw a rise off the low in the unemployment rate. so we, the market may be disregarding revisions. the national bureau of economic research is not. charles: is not, although it will be after the fact. >> it was 366 days before they dated the last one. >> we also had two recessions in the '50s where the equity market and economy peaked at the same time. this notion you can't have a recess
charles: you think the fed will hike this powell fed? in the future. >> someone backing off this may hike. that was a joke. that was a joke. on the unemployment rate, to your point about the rate, goes up to 4.1, 4.2, charles, to that point it probably keeps going up. even if you look back in the '50s, when unemployment rate was under three, it still went up to six. go from 3, 4, ultimately up to five 1/2, six, not hard to do. we're not there yet. but it could turn quick. charles:...
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May 31, 2024
05/24
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that should be enough for the fed to cut. perhaps they will find an opportunity to negotiate a rate cut. >> maybe one rate cut this year and look forward to 2025. vonnie: optimism that this is dovish data. some investors and strategies are talking about personals ending easing off but that could be considered a good thing for the federal reserve if wages began to decelerate and it hits the labor market. taking a look month over month, year over you are as expected and not wildly out of control. i will leave the adjectives to our guests. let's see how the two year yield reacted. there was plenty of supply and those auctions and we saw precipitous drops we are at 4.88 and the two-year. nobel laureate paul romer spoke about inflation in the direction of the fed. >> if we stipulate we want inflation to go down lower. should we be happy with the process that this happens gradually over time or is it right away? my argument is we have seen steady decreases so there is no reason to be more aggressive and risk causing a recession. wh
that should be enough for the fed to cut. perhaps they will find an opportunity to negotiate a rate cut. >> maybe one rate cut this year and look forward to 2025. vonnie: optimism that this is dovish data. some investors and strategies are talking about personals ending easing off but that could be considered a good thing for the federal reserve if wages began to decelerate and it hits the labor market. taking a look month over month, year over you are as expected and not wildly out of...
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May 21, 2024
05/24
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what's go to our fed speak and an fed president rafael double down on his mantra. loretta says three rate cuts in 2024 are no longer appropriate. loretta: i was on the record saying i was at the median, three. developments i have seen right now i would not think that is appropriate because inflation risks. >> anything can happen. inflation will fall into 2025 and i think it will take a wild for us to get to 2% but i think we will get there. tom: ok, let's bring in mark cranfield in singapore. we heard from loretta messner. expectations on the number of cuts. dot plots signaled three, what are traders looking for? mark: traders are looking for one and two rate cuts by the end of the year. probably in november. the fed meeting coming up is the one, giannis the next time and it will give us a new outlook. there is no way they can go to three. we've reached the end of the year and they were projecting this in january or march. data has not worked out in their favor. they had to dial back and that is why your hearing a longer -- higher for longer mantra. people are doin
what's go to our fed speak and an fed president rafael double down on his mantra. loretta says three rate cuts in 2024 are no longer appropriate. loretta: i was on the record saying i was at the median, three. developments i have seen right now i would not think that is appropriate because inflation risks. >> anything can happen. inflation will fall into 2025 and i think it will take a wild for us to get to 2% but i think we will get there. tom: ok, let's bring in mark cranfield in...
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May 7, 2024
05/24
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that's when the fed will consider its next move. mark: i think it's important it's not just reprint softer than it is, but i think it is soft prints. we are still adding jobs. it's getting lower. it is true the unemployment rate kicked up been i think we got a soft headline ism data but the prices paid component was strong. we could be in a dynamic where we do see the economy slowed a little bit, which might see the fed say we will cut, it's a timing issue, december, next year, that might cap the front end. as long as prices are sticky, we are seeing sticky inflation and we see the curve steepen. that will become a bit more dynamic. rather than having a strong directional yield, i think the strong field at the moment is steeper in the curve. i think we finally see this record long and fruited curve finally ending its inversion in the coming months. haslinda: we have been talking about the yen for forever. despite the two interventions, suppose it interventions, which we saw, the yen did not manage to get to 152. >> bearish, bearish,
that's when the fed will consider its next move. mark: i think it's important it's not just reprint softer than it is, but i think it is soft prints. we are still adding jobs. it's getting lower. it is true the unemployment rate kicked up been i think we got a soft headline ism data but the prices paid component was strong. we could be in a dynamic where we do see the economy slowed a little bit, which might see the fed say we will cut, it's a timing issue, december, next year, that might cap...
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the fed leaves one sentence in. it's a very key sentence, saying it needs to gain greater confidence that inflation will move sustainably to 2%. again a very key phrase in the statement. one big announcement of the fed statement is going to make, the fed is reducing runoff of the balance sheet. starting in june the fed will go from $60 billion of runoff in treasurys, rolling off $25 billion. going down to 25 billion in treasurys, rolling off starting in june, amount of mortgage-backed securities will remain the same for the roleoff at 35 billion for the time-being. any principle payments above that would be rolled into and reinvested into treasurys. again this is a unanimous decision. so the fed saying that they're going to remain, pause on the rates for the sixth time in a row but they want greater confidence still that inflation is moving sustainably to their 2% target. charles? charles: there is a lot there. edward, thanks so much my friend. in 1956, a new gameday beaud on television. it was called to tell the tr
the fed leaves one sentence in. it's a very key sentence, saying it needs to gain greater confidence that inflation will move sustainably to 2%. again a very key phrase in the statement. one big announcement of the fed statement is going to make, the fed is reducing runoff of the balance sheet. starting in june the fed will go from $60 billion of runoff in treasurys, rolling off $25 billion. going down to 25 billion in treasurys, rolling off starting in june, amount of mortgage-backed...
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May 10, 2024
05/24
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dallas fed president lori logan said rates may not be restrictive enough, so you are getting some fed if speak saying maybe rates need to stay higher e for longer -- jackie: i think the fed knows it's not really coming out with what it's going to do, and i think the markets got it wrong once again. we've seen this trend. market gets excited about something, it gets excited about what it wants to hear, not listening to actually -- brian: right. and did not pay a lot of attention to that consumer sentiment number. taylor: bingo. and the inflation expectations in that number too, really worrisome. not worry esome is charles payne. "with making money" starts now. charles: thank you all very much. the market worry when it wants to worry or when it's too late. i'm charles payne, this is "making money." breaking right now, we are seeing a bifurcation in this market. it's been an amazing may, but it's been stagger all of the names you normally wouldn't hear about like utilities. when will the magnificents step up, because at some point it's going to be needed to keep this rally going. althoug
dallas fed president lori logan said rates may not be restrictive enough, so you are getting some fed if speak saying maybe rates need to stay higher e for longer -- jackie: i think the fed knows it's not really coming out with what it's going to do, and i think the markets got it wrong once again. we've seen this trend. market gets excited about something, it gets excited about what it wants to hear, not listening to actually -- brian: right. and did not pay a lot of attention to that consumer...
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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for a long time we had a lot of mail from people at the fed -- to the fed saying you should raise interest rates because we are not getting anything on our checking accounts. we solved that problem. senator warnock: i don't think we are asking for that. given the reality -- let me pivot, the monetary policy report states that while demand for housing has fallen, the strong labor market has kept prices high, that matches what i have been seeing in georgia. too many folks can't afford a home. according to the monetary policy report, mortgage rates were averaging around 7% last month. that's tough for lower income home buyers. increases of just a percentage point or two can be the difference between owning a home or not. are you concerned about this interplay between lower demand yet stubbornly high prices and what it means for folks trying to buy a home? what do you think is driving these high prices? chair powell: the housing market is in a very challenging situation right now. you have this longer run housing shortage, but at the same time you've got a bunch of things that have to do with
for a long time we had a lot of mail from people at the fed -- to the fed saying you should raise interest rates because we are not getting anything on our checking accounts. we solved that problem. senator warnock: i don't think we are asking for that. given the reality -- let me pivot, the monetary policy report states that while demand for housing has fallen, the strong labor market has kept prices high, that matches what i have been seeing in georgia. too many folks can't afford a home....
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May 8, 2024
05/24
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the fed can and will achieve 2%. the question is, if disinflation is still underway, then maybe it will continue on its own. we can then take that on board. if we need to hold rates where they are for an extended time to tap the brakes on the economy, or if we need a raise, we will do what we need to do to get inflation back down. >> i will ask about 2% and i no one of the fed stands 52%. i talked to people and their cost of capital, they are basing it on close to two or 3% rate. they are saying, the 2% target, that needs to come up, that is not the reality long term, at least not for the folks in this room. >> i disagree with that. ultimately the central bank, whether the fed, ecb or the bank of england can determine whatever the inflation rate is. over time, if they conduct their policy appropriately, people will come to understand that it will adjust their behavior. we are committed to two percent. we will get to 2% and get the interest rate environment necessary to achieve two percent. haslinda: minneapolis fed p
the fed can and will achieve 2%. the question is, if disinflation is still underway, then maybe it will continue on its own. we can then take that on board. if we need to hold rates where they are for an extended time to tap the brakes on the economy, or if we need a raise, we will do what we need to do to get inflation back down. >> i will ask about 2% and i no one of the fed stands 52%. i talked to people and their cost of capital, they are basing it on close to two or 3% rate. they are...
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is the fed going to cut? is the fed going to hike? what is inflation doing? at that those are narratives that move stocks quickly. earnings is based on fundamentals so that has some importance. if you see the story stocks go through the roof, meme stocks another example, there is word out there something could happen or there is big short interest. what is moving markets for the most part are narratives. a.i. narrative started last year. that moved markets. now we've got the fed, will it cut? no it is not going to cut. maybe one, maybe one, absolutely no more than two. i agree with brian it is political if they did cut but what they did do at the wednesday meeting, the statement at the q&a, when what we found the federal reserve cut its qt. in other words instead of letting $60 billion to run off the balance sheet, they will reduce to let tag billion run off. if they have 60 billion going to mature, they will be in the bond market buying bills, notes, and bonds. that is very supportive. charles: so your bullish in part because of that. what is the kryptonite
is the fed going to cut? is the fed going to hike? what is inflation doing? at that those are narratives that move stocks quickly. earnings is based on fundamentals so that has some importance. if you see the story stocks go through the roof, meme stocks another example, there is word out there something could happen or there is big short interest. what is moving markets for the most part are narratives. a.i. narrative started last year. that moved markets. now we've got the fed, will it cut?...
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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investors bracing for the fed. we are just two hours away from an expected hawkish hold for the central bank, leaving rates unchanged. let's get a check on the markets. we have a second day of declines on the s&p 500. in the less of a decline than a day ago, down 0.4 -- a little less of a neckline than -- a little less of a decline than a day ago, down 0.4%. two year yield still firmly above the 5% level on the week. you have a two basis point move lower on the day. however, again, we have the big meeting just two hours from now. 10 year yield has been above 4.60 all week and now today even with a two basis point move lower, 4.65. banks soaring after posting better than execute results and exec it is outlining a goal of being better in 2025 following expected losses this year. it is surging now more than 31%. on the other hand, you have starbucks. sales fell for the first time since 2020. the chain cut annual guidance for a third straight quarter, lowering its full-year year revenue growth forecast to a low single-
investors bracing for the fed. we are just two hours away from an expected hawkish hold for the central bank, leaving rates unchanged. let's get a check on the markets. we have a second day of declines on the s&p 500. in the less of a decline than a day ago, down 0.4 -- a little less of a neckline than -- a little less of a decline than a day ago, down 0.4%. two year yield still firmly above the 5% level on the week. you have a two basis point move lower on the day. however, again, we have...
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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next fed meeting? >> i'm interviewing one of the fed officials interviewing in the next couple of days. >> tough spot. >> i think -- i think that -- i think at the end of the day, it is a committee position and in the end it really matters. i do think this is going to be a difficult period where they have to make some pretty contentious choices, in those moments, how much they can get everybody on board is really, really relevant. so the range of opinions starts to matter quite a bit. >> okay. we're going to be listening to those fed speakers and reads your article. great to see you both. have a great day. jay powell press conference, of course, coming up at 2:00 p.m. eastern. >>> coming up on "worldwide exchange," more of your big money moves and a pair of chips player, taking a look at the back of the earnings. "worldwide exchange" has much more coming up. (♪) join the millions who're feeling the power of osteo bi-flex®, the #1 pharmacist recommended joint care supplement. (♪) find our coupons i
next fed meeting? >> i'm interviewing one of the fed officials interviewing in the next couple of days. >> tough spot. >> i think -- i think that -- i think at the end of the day, it is a committee position and in the end it really matters. i do think this is going to be a difficult period where they have to make some pretty contentious choices, in those moments, how much they can get everybody on board is really, really relevant. so the range of opinions starts to matter...
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May 16, 2024
05/24
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a fed speak. -- a host of fed speak. president biden and former president trump agreeing to two debates, the first match of on cnn and september 10th on abc and will not be sponsored by the nonpartisan commission that has organize these events for decades. annmarie: 37 years. this was a long time coming. remember the rnc said they are leaving the commission and now the biden camp is saying we are not happy with the way the commission has worked. it has become obsolete and the commission put out a statement saying we will prepare for the dates if you say you want to show up and they are usually held at universities with a live audience. that will not happen in june. jonathan: can we talk about the importance of why it is in june and my team biden wants to make this happen. annmarie: they see how dismal the poll numbers have been for the biden camp. and the idea is to get a boost potentially. remember the biden polls got a boost after the state of the union. he had a strong performance in got a boost in the polls. potentia
a fed speak. -- a host of fed speak. president biden and former president trump agreeing to two debates, the first match of on cnn and september 10th on abc and will not be sponsored by the nonpartisan commission that has organize these events for decades. annmarie: 37 years. this was a long time coming. remember the rnc said they are leaving the commission and now the biden camp is saying we are not happy with the way the commission has worked. it has become obsolete and the commission put out...
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May 20, 2024
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plenty of fed speak on tap. we will also get the fed minutes as well. weekly jobless claims and the umiss consumer sentiment survey. when you are light on data you run the risk of putting too much emphasis on the data we do get and that data is very light. lisa: the fact that you said university of michigan sentiment survey. it is shifting from 100% phone two 100% online. if you thought it was unreliable before, it might be more so. i think ongoing commentary from the likes of macy's and lows and target this week, even though those are second-tier names and second-tier data points will give us color in the consumer following on what we heard from walmart and whether the downshifting that walmarts's gain as everybody else's loss. annmarie: michael gapen is talking about the minutes being important. potentially we get more insight into what they were thinking. jonathan: i'm always wondering how much more dovish chariman powell is on the fomc. lisa: every single time there is a fed meeting everyone says this is jay powell's chance to push back against the
plenty of fed speak on tap. we will also get the fed minutes as well. weekly jobless claims and the umiss consumer sentiment survey. when you are light on data you run the risk of putting too much emphasis on the data we do get and that data is very light. lisa: the fact that you said university of michigan sentiment survey. it is shifting from 100% phone two 100% online. if you thought it was unreliable before, it might be more so. i think ongoing commentary from the likes of macy's and lows...
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May 28, 2024
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could mean they were considering a rate hike from the fed. now, we have seen from powell that the bar to a hike is fairly high and, if anything, they will hold rates longer and starting the cutting cycle sooner esc we skescaped a recession in the eurozone t in china, we are seeing enough stimulus to keep growth around 4% or 5% that, at least, leaves a rosier outlook than four or five months ago. >> we are expecting divergence with the monetary policy across the world, specifically with the eart ecb and the fed. that is the perfect setup for the fx markets for so long, there has been little-to-no volumes will we have a busy summer and busy trading snunts. >> the data is there if growth starts to slow, you could see some big moves along divergent path s for central banks. i think it is range bound. all central banks will cut if they can, but it is clear one per quarter or as the data allows what is holding us back is having a stronger conviction is the u.s. elections in the third and fourth quarter that could keep a lot of people on the sidelin
could mean they were considering a rate hike from the fed. now, we have seen from powell that the bar to a hike is fairly high and, if anything, they will hold rates longer and starting the cutting cycle sooner esc we skescaped a recession in the eurozone t in china, we are seeing enough stimulus to keep growth around 4% or 5% that, at least, leaves a rosier outlook than four or five months ago. >> we are expecting divergence with the monetary policy across the world, specifically with...
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May 31, 2024
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no more fed speak. how does this change things going into not next wednesday with the following wednesday? michael: in no way, shape or form does it change anything. it shows there is progress. the economy is slowing but not falling off a cliff, which is what is supposed to happen with the fed raises rates. they will say we are on track. this is what we expected. kit tells us inflation is going down but we need to continue to see more progress. we are only at 2.8%. we need to get to 2% or maybe 2.4% or 2.5%. you can ask our guests what they think the starting point will be. jay powell has said we will not wait until we get to 2%. lisa: i like what jon says, a meat is the new beat. there is this miss in terms of personal spending. people want to see cooling and spending. what do you make that revisions are so frequently downward these days that we get these data points that are revised sometimes significantly, sometimes not, but usually in a downward fashion? michael: there was a rule proposed by larry m
no more fed speak. how does this change things going into not next wednesday with the following wednesday? michael: in no way, shape or form does it change anything. it shows there is progress. the economy is slowing but not falling off a cliff, which is what is supposed to happen with the fed raises rates. they will say we are on track. this is what we expected. kit tells us inflation is going down but we need to continue to see more progress. we are only at 2.8%. we need to get to 2% or maybe...
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May 13, 2024
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judy shelton on why the fed's messaging is falling flat. i had the honor of giving my first commencement speech this weekend. i will give you my speech for the class of 2024. all that and so much more on "making money". charles: so the market coming off really good week. this part right here is all of last week, doing pretty good, coming up pretty good for the year right now. here's the thing. it needed to make a stand last week, right the 10-year, the way the feeling of this market, the bounce, it started to acknowledge at least for investors there is desire for more balance, it just can't be seven stocks. it was all really about value last week. this is about values for the stock market, two real big, big winners. look at the move in the xlu. telling you, that is utilities. although some people would argue, hey, this is stag. and this is-flation. i don't know, i will ask a lot of guests if you believe stagflation is out there. here is one of the problems, when it comes to return on the investment utilities is the lowest at 11 percent. nec
judy shelton on why the fed's messaging is falling flat. i had the honor of giving my first commencement speech this weekend. i will give you my speech for the class of 2024. all that and so much more on "making money". charles: so the market coming off really good week. this part right here is all of last week, doing pretty good, coming up pretty good for the year right now. here's the thing. it needed to make a stand last week, right the 10-year, the way the feeling of this market,...
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May 31, 2024
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the fed should be mindful. i believe they will cut rates before that anyway regardless of what happens in november. >> i want your opinion from the comment we got from a different guest. he said the fed has no idea when it comes to the inflation picture in the u.s. do you agree with this statement? >> we have to say all of this is forecast. sometimes you forecast down the line and it is all path de depe dependent. my scenario may come true with a 50-point cut in november post something catastrophic happening. one can talk in terms of i expect 75-basis rate cut for the full year. it may come in 25 in november and 50 in december. the economy is showing signs of slowing down. only the fed will not do is if tariffs come in and that brings the pce coming in higher than forecast. >> let's bring in timing. a lot of concern among market players were the diffivergence h the fed and ecb and the england. who will move first? >> ecb. ecb will cut on june 16th when they meet. when we talk about the u.s. elections coming dow
the fed should be mindful. i believe they will cut rates before that anyway regardless of what happens in november. >> i want your opinion from the comment we got from a different guest. he said the fed has no idea when it comes to the inflation picture in the u.s. do you agree with this statement? >> we have to say all of this is forecast. sometimes you forecast down the line and it is all path de depe dependent. my scenario may come true with a 50-point cut in november post...
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May 10, 2024
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real fed funds rate. and to me the level of that is as high as it has been in some time, so i feel like we're in a -- >> so let me respond to my agood milliken conference, major comment was that they are not tight. we think monday tar policy works through financial conditions pan if the business community feels like we're not as tight, maybe we are not as estrictive >> so do you want to go higher then >> i'm in a wait and see mode. let's get more data. >> but not reeling it out. >> nobody can real it out. >> nothing is never not on the table. and the job of the central banker is to be paranoid in everything >> i don't like tying our hands even partially getting a lot of data and more information before the next meeting much less for the rest of the year i think that -- i don't want to speculate about the conditions what we need that the data dogs need to do some sniffing and figure out are we kind of beat on the path like what we saw last year where inflation fell almost as much as it has fallen without a
real fed funds rate. and to me the level of that is as high as it has been in some time, so i feel like we're in a -- >> so let me respond to my agood milliken conference, major comment was that they are not tight. we think monday tar policy works through financial conditions pan if the business community feels like we're not as tight, maybe we are not as estrictive >> so do you want to go higher then >> i'm in a wait and see mode. let's get more data. >> but not reeling...
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May 1, 2024
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neither the fed nor the fed futures market have been particularly good about predicting what's going to happen. the fed was talking about transient inflation for a long time before they took the word transient out of the conversation. now the fed basically saying well, going to be ready to cut rates but now maybe not so soon, maybe not so fast. the market similarly last fall thought there would be a lot more rate cuts coming this year than the market says today. so who is the good predictor here of either what the fed is going to do, what inflation is going to do, but the economy is going to do? >> however, if i tell you that the chicago cubs are going to have three pitchers that are going to win 30 games this year, you'd probably raise the chances of them going farther down the season and doing better potentially and making playoffs. what if the pictures don't win 30 games? here's the issue with those predictions, is that the market is listening to the fed. the whole premise of fed guidance is to guide the market by the nose, okay? and when you still have a huge balance sheet, when
neither the fed nor the fed futures market have been particularly good about predicting what's going to happen. the fed was talking about transient inflation for a long time before they took the word transient out of the conversation. now the fed basically saying well, going to be ready to cut rates but now maybe not so soon, maybe not so fast. the market similarly last fall thought there would be a lot more rate cuts coming this year than the market says today. so who is the good predictor...
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housing is a incredible dilemma for the fed. i actually don't think monetary policy alone can solve this and a large part of the reason because this is not just an asset or an investment class, this is shelter. this is with people live and it seems like right now outside of building a lot more of supply the tradeoffs are we have to sort of booed people out of their homes to get open availability for younger people on, you know, it is like, sort of like a no-win scenario. that's why i think this has been such a hot topic and sew frustrating for so many people. charles: ironically a lot of people thought maybe the fed could come to the rescue. as lot as everything has been though, we're seeing bifurcation. this is something you tweet about, write about all the time. i want to understand, how do you explain in huge surge in seriously underwater homes in many states? >> yeah. the data just came in and it is an alarming headline but the actual reality the number is 2.%, which is still below pre-pandemic let alone anywhere near where
housing is a incredible dilemma for the fed. i actually don't think monetary policy alone can solve this and a large part of the reason because this is not just an asset or an investment class, this is shelter. this is with people live and it seems like right now outside of building a lot more of supply the tradeoffs are we have to sort of booed people out of their homes to get open availability for younger people on, you know, it is like, sort of like a no-win scenario. that's why i think this...
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May 9, 2024
05/24
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very heavy on fed speak. more fed speak later. san francisco president mary daly coming up. in the bond market, looking like this on the two year. yields higher almost a basis point. on the 10 year higher by two. let's take a quick sneak peek at what is happening with sterling in the fx market. the pound against the u.s. dollar, 1.2456. we are softer one third of 1%. under surveillance this morning, the bank of england keeping rates on hold. seven members voting for no change. two voting for it immediate cut. for a lot of people, nudging this decision to june and a lot of people encouraged by this idea that is when we get the 25 basis point cut. dani: the market is starting to go there. gilts little changed. what we are seeing under the surface are prices for futures. for so long this has been trading on when the fed goes maybe the boe will go. it was following that pricing. we are starting to see a change. deutsche bank underlined this. the risks to sterling are not that great if the boe goes before the fed. the move will be a rounding error. the currency effect is not bad
very heavy on fed speak. more fed speak later. san francisco president mary daly coming up. in the bond market, looking like this on the two year. yields higher almost a basis point. on the 10 year higher by two. let's take a quick sneak peek at what is happening with sterling in the fx market. the pound against the u.s. dollar, 1.2456. we are softer one third of 1%. under surveillance this morning, the bank of england keeping rates on hold. seven members voting for no change. two voting for it...
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May 2, 2024
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." >>> the fed give and the fed take away. still digesting the latest from jay powell and what he had to say about the policy path forward. >>> futures are trying to build momentum with wall street still on track for its fourth down week in the last five. >>> the focus for the market today is earnings as apple is set to report after the close today. the one big number of need to watch. >>> weight-loss drugs power the bottom line at novo nordisk and shares moving in an interesting direction overseas. >>> and looking at the u.s. and what jay powell said could give emerging markets a boost today it is thursday, may 2nd, 2024. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc ♪ >>> good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange. we're coming to you live from cnbc london. let's get you ready for the trading day ahead. wall street is waking up with whiplash after the rally that saw the dow surge 500 points higher and ending the day with marginal gains u.s. stock futures are trying to build on the gains you see they are gleareen
." >>> the fed give and the fed take away. still digesting the latest from jay powell and what he had to say about the policy path forward. >>> futures are trying to build momentum with wall street still on track for its fourth down week in the last five. >>> the focus for the market today is earnings as apple is set to report after the close today. the one big number of need to watch. >>> weight-loss drugs power the bottom line at novo nordisk and...
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May 29, 2024
05/24
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policies below the fed. even though you can make an argument countries like china, movie thailand, even korea, arguably, given that inflation is at the target or below the target where korea will approach the target fairly soon, they should be a little bit more comfortable about having more independent monetary policy relative to the fed and focus more on their domestic conditions. therefore, they could be for cutting and we think china could cut, thailand could cut and they are not delivering. in the case of korea, even though conditions suggest they could cut, i think this whole dollar environment in the volatility of fx will constrain policies of what be ok will do. we still see room for cutting but part of that his condition is sitting as a house, we are probably the only few expecting the fed could cut as early as july. but i certainly think that gets pushed back given some of the hawkish we are getting out of the fed and the mixed data we will get out of the u.s., that complicates easing outlooks at a
policies below the fed. even though you can make an argument countries like china, movie thailand, even korea, arguably, given that inflation is at the target or below the target where korea will approach the target fairly soon, they should be a little bit more comfortable about having more independent monetary policy relative to the fed and focus more on their domestic conditions. therefore, they could be for cutting and we think china could cut, thailand could cut and they are not delivering....
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May 2, 2024
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gaining ground against the greenback, bracing for a hawkish fed. the currency that did not benefit others goal is the japanese yen. this hit 1575 and was brought back to 153 and this smelled like intervention. we've seen three sharp moves, yen bears are back. they have the fundamentals on their side, it's about the yield after the fomc today. tom: thank you very much indeed. jerome powell keeping hopes alive for a rate cut this year indeed, but inflation has reduced confidence that price pressures are ebbing. >> it would not be appropriate to reduce the target range until we have gained weight or confidence that inflation is moving toward 2%. so far the data have not given us greater confidence, in particular readings on inflation have come in above expectations. gaining confidence will take longer than expected. tom: let's bring in mark cranfield. if this was a pivot it was at the dovish end of the spectrum. is this the fed with an easing bias? mark: mr. powell would like to lower interest rates. in december he kicked off the idea of rate cuts, he
gaining ground against the greenback, bracing for a hawkish fed. the currency that did not benefit others goal is the japanese yen. this hit 1575 and was brought back to 153 and this smelled like intervention. we've seen three sharp moves, yen bears are back. they have the fundamentals on their side, it's about the yield after the fomc today. tom: thank you very much indeed. jerome powell keeping hopes alive for a rate cut this year indeed, but inflation has reduced confidence that price...
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May 10, 2024
05/24
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more fed speak later. fed speak just repeat the same line again and again. you'll hear from bowman, logan, kashkari and master. we are restrictive it might take more time to just bring inflation down, more time seems to be the frame -- the phrase. dani: we are pleased with literally any other fed speaker and that's always gotten. we don't know what they will do anymore because they don't know what they will do anymore so we get the same reframe. >> a lot of people have been talking about this over the last couple of weeks just the idea we don't have to be afraid of strong data they won't hike but if we get strong data they will ease. how well we set up for that given the move down we've seen in yields across the curve. dani: the animal spirits have been unleashed so this market is set up as if we are in the cutting cycle. if we get anything contradictory what happens to this market where you see these people flood to the bond market because spreads are so thin. you have these companies announcing and acting like cuts are not only on their way but they are he
more fed speak later. fed speak just repeat the same line again and again. you'll hear from bowman, logan, kashkari and master. we are restrictive it might take more time to just bring inflation down, more time seems to be the frame -- the phrase. dani: we are pleased with literally any other fed speaker and that's always gotten. we don't know what they will do anymore because they don't know what they will do anymore so we get the same reframe. >> a lot of people have been talking about...
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May 27, 2024
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don't forget we also have some fed speakers due. it looks like the hawks may get more airtime than the doves. just like that, asian equities getting the bed. csi 300 pretty flat. coming off a week when those properties support measures, the skepticism of whether it will be enough, really rain on sentiment. also the taiwan strait tension. among currencies, we are seeing recovery in the yen. cannot say the same for japan's 10 year bonds. continued selling. the expectation of the boj's policy normalization. but i guess to your point about how we are going to be data focused this week, let's flip the board and take a look at what we are seeing out of china. industrial profits rose in that is against the backdrop of exports having returned to growth, domestic demand improving, so some signs of that recovery. haslinda: that's right. lots of data to digest. avril hong, thank you. some of the top economic news we are watching. core pce data. this will be a key indicator for the u.s. of course on the back of uncertainty remaining over when t
don't forget we also have some fed speakers due. it looks like the hawks may get more airtime than the doves. just like that, asian equities getting the bed. csi 300 pretty flat. coming off a week when those properties support measures, the skepticism of whether it will be enough, really rain on sentiment. also the taiwan strait tension. among currencies, we are seeing recovery in the yen. cannot say the same for japan's 10 year bonds. continued selling. the expectation of the boj's policy...
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May 28, 2024
05/24
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we've got a ton of fed speak and the challenge here is that the fed is really a taker on policy right now. if you think about what's happened from a fiscal perspective, if you think about the better than expected growth, the stronger and more resilient consumer of last year, it's really put the fed into a bit of a bind in terms of moving from data point to data point and that type of volatility is not going to necessarily show up immediately in the equity market, but it's going to show up in the bond market and yields as you were talking about earlier. i think in the absence of, you know, micro are result, we're entering a macro vacuum and, frankly, unless pce comes in lighter than anticipated, which it could, based on asset management fees being a little bit lighter after april's market activity, i think we're entering into a period of some difficulty now, the good thing is, there are places to go you know, we've seen strength in financials we, as you know, have been very optimistic on utilities even before everybody started buying them for ai, and i think that the broadening out of
we've got a ton of fed speak and the challenge here is that the fed is really a taker on policy right now. if you think about what's happened from a fiscal perspective, if you think about the better than expected growth, the stronger and more resilient consumer of last year, it's really put the fed into a bit of a bind in terms of moving from data point to data point and that type of volatility is not going to necessarily show up immediately in the equity market, but it's going to show up in...
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May 2, 2024
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fed will do and ecb will do in june. are more people putting more money in the equity market or is the pull too attractive? >> i think the long end is data depe dependent. we don't know what the fed will do you have a significant amount of risk i think as long as high as it is in the u.s., but cash is a clear alternative to the market. you can put your money in the market and get 5% return look, i do believe earnings are still something which makes the case for equities in the fairly tricky environment we do believe earnings are delivering and rate hikes are delivering in the u.s. and maybe we can go back to the top as we enter the tricky time of the year sell in may and go away. i'm pushing clients to be more cautious and not rushing to buy the dip. >> globally, we have seen a shift to the cyclical trade. moving money to industrials and materials and non-cyclical trade in the united states do you expect that trade to continue >> i think it should be more about the data the data is slowing in the u.s we are seeing the ti
fed will do and ecb will do in june. are more people putting more money in the equity market or is the pull too attractive? >> i think the long end is data depe dependent. we don't know what the fed will do you have a significant amount of risk i think as long as high as it is in the u.s., but cash is a clear alternative to the market. you can put your money in the market and get 5% return look, i do believe earnings are still something which makes the case for equities in the fairly...
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May 14, 2024
05/24
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the fed or fiscal policy? gary: i don't think there is a winner or a loser, you have to be realistic to what's going on and who is trying to do what. the biden administration has been insistent on policy. they have been trying to spend money and put money into the economy since day one, since the first covid really. $1.9 trillion has gone in early. they continuously find ways to put money into the economy for student loans. they are continually looking for ways to physically stimulate the economy. on the other hand, the fed is responding to the outcome of the money being in. there is a cost-effective. many of us think that the effect is more of what's being put in, money supply expanding so quickly, you have too much money chasing too few goods, therefore an inflationary pressure. the fed is responding to the effect of the cause and raising rates trying to slow that. if i were going to bet, the biden administration continuing with fiscal stimulus, if they have a lot of stimulus approved where they have not giv
the fed or fiscal policy? gary: i don't think there is a winner or a loser, you have to be realistic to what's going on and who is trying to do what. the biden administration has been insistent on policy. they have been trying to spend money and put money into the economy since day one, since the first covid really. $1.9 trillion has gone in early. they continuously find ways to put money into the economy for student loans. they are continually looking for ways to physically stimulate the...
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May 13, 2024
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the fed is hoping so. they don't have any explain nation for why it wouldn't. -- explanation for why it wouldn't. some on pennsylvania avenue point out the europeans don't put housing into their cpi. if you took housing out of the u.s. one, we are both at 2.4%, a lot better than what we are showing now. dani: set us up for retail figures. what are we looking to get? michael: you tell me. we had a big month last month we are not expected to see month, only a 10% gain after only 1.1% the month before. this is where the numbers get distorted month-to-month because of easter. easter moves around a lot, end of april this year. that pushes some spending into april that might have taken place in may that won't show up. it is hard to know exactly how it is going to come out but we look at the control numbers, which don't show a very good performance for retail sales but american consumers are surprised. dani: savings rates, something like 3%, complicated by the fact that we get more real-time data with walmart, ho
the fed is hoping so. they don't have any explain nation for why it wouldn't. -- explanation for why it wouldn't. some on pennsylvania avenue point out the europeans don't put housing into their cpi. if you took housing out of the u.s. one, we are both at 2.4%, a lot better than what we are showing now. dani: set us up for retail figures. what are we looking to get? michael: you tell me. we had a big month last month we are not expected to see month, only a 10% gain after only 1.1% the month...
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May 31, 2024
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the fed gauge pce. that is expected to show inflation creeping to the central bank 2% target. >>> historic moment for the u.s. as former president donald trump is found guilty on all charges of the hush money trial. that's coming up. it's friday, may 31st. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. ♪ ♪ >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu in for frank holland on this friday morning. let's pick up a check of the u.s. equity futures which are in a holding pattern. the dow is higher by 15 points. the s&p higher by 6. nasdaq by 7. the dow is on pace for the worst week in more than a year and the nasdaq coming off the worst day in a month. if you look at what is happening overall on the month-to-date basis, dow is up .75%. the s&p is up 4%. the tech heavy nasdaq up nearly 7%. a really good month of may. checking in on the bond market with the personal consumption expendables. pce. the ten-year note yield at 4.56%. two-year treasury yield which investors use as a proxy for fu
the fed gauge pce. that is expected to show inflation creeping to the central bank 2% target. >>> historic moment for the u.s. as former president donald trump is found guilty on all charges of the hush money trial. that's coming up. it's friday, may 31st. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. ♪ ♪ >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu in for frank holland on this friday morning. let's pick up a check of the u.s. equity...
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May 10, 2024
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logan asking the question maybe the fed is not tight enough. that's from dallas, and then we had kashkari on who says, you know what? well, you know what, let's listen to what he had to say the good news here is he's not talking rate hikes, so let's hear what he is talking about. >> if we get concerning inflation data continued, we're going to sit where we are for an extended period of time. i think that's the default if the labor market stays strong, we don't have to do anything we can stay here as long as needed >> now, i don't think austan goolsbee's viewpoint is any different from that given the scenario, where austan may be a little different, is he seems to have more optimism that inflation is going to work itself out he will keep reminding you that we had an historic decline in the inflation rate last year obviously not the price level, but the rate of inflation came down very precipitously. he's a little more optimistic. he does not accept the idea that we're in this last tougher mile of inflation he seems to have expect that the inflat
logan asking the question maybe the fed is not tight enough. that's from dallas, and then we had kashkari on who says, you know what? well, you know what, let's listen to what he had to say the good news here is he's not talking rate hikes, so let's hear what he is talking about. >> if we get concerning inflation data continued, we're going to sit where we are for an extended period of time. i think that's the default if the labor market stays strong, we don't have to do anything we can...
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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david rosenberg counts us down to the fed. top stock prepare for a more hawkish fed. higher for longer rates with gradual rate cuts sounding scary at first, we remain maximum overweight on credit, equities, and death. next joins us for more. max, overweight. talk to me about five. max: i think i'm more in the camp of what lisa was just saying. we are all pretty desperate on getting something exciting out of the fed, but be honest, looking at what they did five months ago, the dovish pivot pretty much out of nowhere, out of the blue, it would be strange if they boxed themselves in now to basically say that the next move might be a hike. i do think that we are probably going to get something that sounds hawkish relative to the last meeting. if they give us one or two cuts instead of three on the dot plot, it won't the needle a lot. with a tail risk off of that h word, it takes away the tail risk and it looks pretty goldilocksy. it should be leading to a bit of a relief in the duration on the yield side, feeding through the asset classes where risk assets in absolute ter
david rosenberg counts us down to the fed. top stock prepare for a more hawkish fed. higher for longer rates with gradual rate cuts sounding scary at first, we remain maximum overweight on credit, equities, and death. next joins us for more. max, overweight. talk to me about five. max: i think i'm more in the camp of what lisa was just saying. we are all pretty desperate on getting something exciting out of the fed, but be honest, looking at what they did five months ago, the dovish pivot...
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May 10, 2024
05/24
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i investors taking guidance from the fed and acting on it now?- fed and acting on it now? i think the market _ fed and acting on it now? i think the market is _ fed and acting on it now? i think the market is still— fed and acting on it now? i think the market is still looking - fed and acting on it now? i think the market is still looking for i the market is still looking for cuts. at least with a nominal curve, which at the short end actually curtails lending growth, because thatis curtails lending growth, because that is what inverted curves do. for the equity market, it is still about pricing cache and discounting it. if rates are going to be lower, they need to boost stock prices higher. i don't think markets are quite ready to be on their own, without getting this from a lower industry.- this from a lower industry. thank ou so this from a lower industry. thank you so much _ this from a lower industry. thank you so much for— this from a lower industry. thank you so much for taking _ this from a lower industry. thank you so much for taking the i this from a lower i
i investors taking guidance from the fed and acting on it now?- fed and acting on it now? i think the market _ fed and acting on it now? i think the market is _ fed and acting on it now? i think the market is still— fed and acting on it now? i think the market is still looking - fed and acting on it now? i think the market is still looking for i the market is still looking for cuts. at least with a nominal curve, which at the short end actually curtails lending growth, because thatis curtails...
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May 21, 2024
05/24
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a lot of fed speak. the idea of it really speaks to a complete lack of certainty and how many come after that. it shows how different the fed is right now. jonathan: under surveillance this morning, shares rising in the market. better than expected sales for the first quarter. target getting more insight into the consumer. elsewhere they say they have the capability to disable chipmaking machines in the event that china invades taiwan. they have reassured officials of their ability to remotely disable machines for which tsmc is the biggest client. they would remotely force a shut off. a -- quite the development in the last day or so. >> it was one of their biggest risks. they are so exposed to taiwan. it is why you see all of these concerns coming from the legs of the white house when it comes to companies like nvidia. if there is a chinese attack on taiwan -- he said he wanted to unify the country. jonathan: earnings tomorrow afternoon. all speaking today. speaking to the cleveland fed president yesterd
a lot of fed speak. the idea of it really speaks to a complete lack of certainty and how many come after that. it shows how different the fed is right now. jonathan: under surveillance this morning, shares rising in the market. better than expected sales for the first quarter. target getting more insight into the consumer. elsewhere they say they have the capability to disable chipmaking machines in the event that china invades taiwan. they have reassured officials of their ability to remotely...
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May 2, 2024
05/24
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the fed, keeping rates unchanged. jay powell sang the next move is not likely to be a hike, but avoided offering a timeline for rate hikes. andrew gives us a base case for cuts in 2024, more than priced by interest rate markets. andrew, hello, let's go straight to it. forecast into 2024, not consensus. andrew: the fed cutting this year, it was clear from chair powell yesterday that the next move is a cut and the way that they get there is the inflation data gives them the opportunity. i don't think it will go to 2%, but it will be slow enough to let them cut and the label market will begin a weaker. we heard that from chair powell, saying that the trend is towards a weaker labor market. jonathan: this is your signature call, the weakness of the labor market. do you see it now? andrew: what we heard from chair powell is that with the dual mandates in the better balance, in their words, inflation has come down. not 2%, but it has come down. when they look at employment, he highlighted these things, look at the climate b
the fed, keeping rates unchanged. jay powell sang the next move is not likely to be a hike, but avoided offering a timeline for rate hikes. andrew gives us a base case for cuts in 2024, more than priced by interest rate markets. andrew, hello, let's go straight to it. forecast into 2024, not consensus. andrew: the fed cutting this year, it was clear from chair powell yesterday that the next move is a cut and the way that they get there is the inflation data gives them the opportunity. i don't...
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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yes, rate hikes not on — enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the _ enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards _ enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards for _ enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards for now, - enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards for now, but| hikes not on the cards for now, but jamie dimon has said he could see a time when interest rates hit 8% and that further uncertainty is really damaging right now to the us economy. could we be in that position where rates start rising, not only a bit, but to 8%? the comment _ not only a bit, but to 8%? the comment you _ not only a bit, but to 8%? the comment you are _ not only a bit, but to 8%? tue: comment you are referring not only a bit, but to 8%? tte: comment you are referring to not only a bit, but to 8%? t"t2 comment you are referring to him not only a bit, but to 8%? tt2 comment you are referring to him at the jamie dimon letter to investors and underneath that, you referenced, he
yes, rate hikes not on — enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the _ enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards _ enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards for _ enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards for now, - enough for the fed to cut. yes, rate hikes not on the cards for now, but| hikes not on the cards for now, but jamie dimon has said he could see a time when interest rates hit 8% and that further uncertainty is really...
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May 29, 2024
05/24
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the fed. jonathan: that conversation next. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. jonathan: equity futures -0.6%, the bond markets, yields high yesterday and again this morning up two basis points, 4.5718. under surveillance, the fog of november. >> u.s.-based investors are struggling to come up with the salience interest between the two candidates. we would like to be forward-looking. there is a lot of clout and clogs. we are stuck talking about the fed. -- there are a lot of clouds and fog, and we are stuck talking about the fed. jonathan: president biden reading former president trump, his largest lead since march 2. historically, markets tend to run up during u.s. elections, one exception is if the outcome is unclear. however, there is no help baked into the idea that we could have a prolonged 2000 style situation where the results ar
the fed. jonathan: that conversation next. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. jonathan: equity futures -0.6%, the bond markets, yields high yesterday and again this morning up two basis points, 4.5718. under surveillance, the fog of november. >> u.s.-based investors are struggling to come up with the salience interest between the...
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May 30, 2024
05/24
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more fed speak today from williams and logan. we will get numbers from dell, nordstrom, gap, and cosco. and we will round out tomorrow morning with a pce deflator and personal income and spending. a lot to look forward to. can we talk about dell briefly? you today is up 134%. -- year-to-date is up 134%. lisa: without the return of the personal computer would be a thing? yet here we are. that seems to be boosting dell's revenue outlook. how long can this last? this room with hardware that can quickly adapt to certain artificial intelligence but simply using what is out there versus when we start to see the shift into the software and some of the other sort of highly-technical aspects on the other ends? annmarie: how much does this have to do with jen-hsun huang, saying, they see this for the future. it is a total resurgence of the dell pc. jonathan: he is in good company. when jensen starts mentioning your name, that's going to do good things for your stock. lisa: that's right. jonathan: dan ives will call him the pope of ai or so
more fed speak today from williams and logan. we will get numbers from dell, nordstrom, gap, and cosco. and we will round out tomorrow morning with a pce deflator and personal income and spending. a lot to look forward to. can we talk about dell briefly? you today is up 134%. -- year-to-date is up 134%. lisa: without the return of the personal computer would be a thing? yet here we are. that seems to be boosting dell's revenue outlook. how long can this last? this room with hardware that can...