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Jan 31, 2024
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♪ >> all eyes on jay powell and the fed and the fed focus today is an what happens tomorrow.omaine: welcome to bloomberg markets. this is fed decides coverage. a week of market speculation about what the fed is prepared to do next comes to a head in about two hours time. to rate decision by the fed widely assumed to be a decision to keep the federal funds rate steady for a fourth straight meeting at 5.25%. the real big decision is likely what the policy statement should say followed by a big test of jay powell's commit occasion skills when he takes the podium for questions at 2:30 p.m. in washington. rates rallying today ahead of the fed decision. all the yields are falling to their lowest levels into axon some of that is tied to regional bank worries which is added to pressure on those yields and treasuries had rallied on monday after the department lowered its estimated borrowing needs for the current quarter. a more detailed announcement this morning on the issuance for each duration didn't move the needle a lot. what we saw out of new york community bank and a couple of o
♪ >> all eyes on jay powell and the fed and the fed focus today is an what happens tomorrow.omaine: welcome to bloomberg markets. this is fed decides coverage. a week of market speculation about what the fed is prepared to do next comes to a head in about two hours time. to rate decision by the fed widely assumed to be a decision to keep the federal funds rate steady for a fourth straight meeting at 5.25%. the real big decision is likely what the policy statement should say followed by...
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Jan 5, 2024
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. >> we are concerned about what this means for the fed. >> it reinforces the notion the fed won't be in a rush to cut rates. >> it likely means the fed does not cut rates. >> it is clear the fed will wait a while before it cuts rates. >> you are seeing a clear deceleration in the labor market. >> there are other developments on the macro front freak -- we got this week that to me suggests a rebalancing. >> part of it is looking in a lot of mirrors. >> i think the fed is frustrated that the market always wants to be more dovish than the fed wants. >> the fed is looking at the market on the market is looking at the fed. >> what the fed it does determines where markets will end up. sonali: joining us is a jordan brooks of hq are capital management. i'm excited to have you. you taught me how to bootstrap the yield curve. you did not teach me how to read the macroeconomic data we are seeing today. look at this morning. we had striped -- such a strong payrolls and such confusing data coupled with ism numbers. how do you read the macro today to trade? jordan: on net, labor markets remain ve
. >> we are concerned about what this means for the fed. >> it reinforces the notion the fed won't be in a rush to cut rates. >> it likely means the fed does not cut rates. >> it is clear the fed will wait a while before it cuts rates. >> you are seeing a clear deceleration in the labor market. >> there are other developments on the macro front freak -- we got this week that to me suggests a rebalancing. >> part of it is looking in a lot of mirrors....
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Jan 12, 2024
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the idea that fed is still -- inflation is not showing enough signs for the fed to move you >> march is probably too early in my estimation for a rate tech line. because i think we need more evidence. i think the december cpi report shows more work to do. that work will take restricted monetary policy. angela: we --sonali: we have all been talking about how we thought six might be too much already. thinking about the data at of us including the cpi print that already came in above expectations, what are you looking for in the pc before the next fed meeting is tomorrow jamie: we have really gotten one data print since the fed put up updated projections in december. we have december inflation. we have two more months of inflation data before the march fomc when markets are pricing in the 80% chance of a cut. more importantly, loretta mester is illustrating exactly what our view is at tcw. which is that powell and the fomc want to err on the side of stamping out inflation. they will err on the side of keeping rates higher for longer. if we get one softer print, we do not think that chan
the idea that fed is still -- inflation is not showing enough signs for the fed to move you >> march is probably too early in my estimation for a rate tech line. because i think we need more evidence. i think the december cpi report shows more work to do. that work will take restricted monetary policy. angela: we --sonali: we have all been talking about how we thought six might be too much already. thinking about the data at of us including the cpi print that already came in above...
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Jan 26, 2024
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inflation remains low, the fed will cut incrementally just to get that real fed funds rate. the fed funds rate minus the pce deflator, move that lower instead of having that continue to be 250 basis. maybe they only wanted 200 basis points. they can move it down and calibrate it is the operative word that you want to listen for jay powell next week to say, which is echoing what waller said last weekend, and is a little bit different than what powell said at the december meeting. sonali: i want to bring in a point you were making, peter, this idea that asset prices are not quite responding to any of the potential issues ahead. guggenheim was weighing in on the impact of that policy, writing that investors "should bear in mind a committed lift impact of the change in interest rates since the fed started training, because even if they fall from here, we do not see them returning to the lows of the prior cycle, and the markets exuberant response must be balanced against downside risks." where do you find those downside risks? peter: well, that's an interesting take. i tend to ag
inflation remains low, the fed will cut incrementally just to get that real fed funds rate. the fed funds rate minus the pce deflator, move that lower instead of having that continue to be 250 basis. maybe they only wanted 200 basis points. they can move it down and calibrate it is the operative word that you want to listen for jay powell next week to say, which is echoing what waller said last weekend, and is a little bit different than what powell said at the december meeting. sonali: i want...
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Jan 17, 2024
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here's the thing the fed fund's futures has priced in six fed rate cuts for this year alone. i doubt that the if ed is going to get in three this year. that's a big difference in terms of where rates end up at the end of the year, and thing questionty markets are priced for all six rate cuts. they need them to justify where their rates are right now and the bond market needs to feel it otherwise you're going to feel pain as the yield works itself out this year. every single market is poised for a lot of fed cuts that i don't think are going to happen as quick will i as their price did. >> you don't think a lot of fed rate cuts will happen. where are you at, gina >> i'm probably at two to three. >> a bit of a contrarian mark, i'm coming over to you the comments from waller, was this the dovish talk everybody was waiting for or was it simply maintaining the data dependent fed that we keep hearing about whether it's jerome powell or other fed speakers. >> we've always said two to three rate hikes in 2024 there were reasons for that. the job market is way too strong wage growth r
here's the thing the fed fund's futures has priced in six fed rate cuts for this year alone. i doubt that the if ed is going to get in three this year. that's a big difference in terms of where rates end up at the end of the year, and thing questionty markets are priced for all six rate cuts. they need them to justify where their rates are right now and the bond market needs to feel it otherwise you're going to feel pain as the yield works itself out this year. every single market is poised for...
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Jan 23, 2024
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the idea, scott, that the fed cannot wait to 2% is well ingrained in the fed. the idea being, though, that the fed does not want to see 3% built into people's minds or expectations. so i do think we need to get below that. friday is a big day, scott. we are probably going to hit on a 3-6 month basis. a 2% core pce number on a three month or six month annualized basis. we will be a trend. march, maybe they cut in march if you have two more good reports on that. but i believe may gives them the opportunity to have as much data in the hopper there to say look, we've been at two, we can cut, we are not in danger of doing what greg branch says we might have to do, which is to hike again. >> steve, you stay with me. s&p and nasdaq are at record highs. these record highs. the dow is making its way well off the worst levels of the session. i see a down by 73 or so this moment. >> i'm happy, scott, to keep talking if the market is going up. >> it is, it is. brian, we had some trouble with your scott. you think this bull market is alive and well. that there is not too mu
the idea, scott, that the fed cannot wait to 2% is well ingrained in the fed. the idea being, though, that the fed does not want to see 3% built into people's minds or expectations. so i do think we need to get below that. friday is a big day, scott. we are probably going to hit on a 3-6 month basis. a 2% core pce number on a three month or six month annualized basis. we will be a trend. march, maybe they cut in march if you have two more good reports on that. but i believe may gives them the...
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Jan 19, 2024
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the fed will cut.hether it cuts in march or may, unless you are a short-term interest rate, doesn't matter much. more importantly, those rate cuts will be more than three or four, at least more than three, even if they are not six. don't over think this. the fed will cut rates. that will probably be good for the markets if you have an investment horizon, even if it is not hot in the first half of the year. sonali: when does the fed start cutting? kelsey: that is the debate and i think march was too soon. you are seeing the market start to price out that probability but i don't think the market is going to move all the way to the fed. i think the market is going to continue to expect more rate cuts than what the market is priced in. for us, we are looking at may or june as more likely for the first rate cut. it will be driven by the improvement in inflation. i will say, what you are hearing less talk about is this probability of a 50 or 75-basis rate cut. waller really walk that back, i think he was str
the fed will cut.hether it cuts in march or may, unless you are a short-term interest rate, doesn't matter much. more importantly, those rate cuts will be more than three or four, at least more than three, even if they are not six. don't over think this. the fed will cut rates. that will probably be good for the markets if you have an investment horizon, even if it is not hot in the first half of the year. sonali: when does the fed start cutting? kelsey: that is the debate and i think march was...
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Jan 5, 2024
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by the fed? i don't know why they are waiting for march. , in -- come out in a few days and say this is when we do the first rate cut. jonathan: we have this gap in market and the federal reserve. the market coming toward the federal reserve. off of the back of recent data, just interfered of better-than-expected data in the last couple days. lisa: yesterday -- said it is a little optimistic today to think it is going to happen so soon, talking about rate cuts, as soon as march. people have been able to bully fed into doing their bidding. they have not been able to this time around. where do people realize their hopes do not create reality? jonathan: jobless claims at 202,000 yesterday. payrolls are two hours 27 minutes away. equity futures coming down. the dollar stronger, euro thing 1.09. yields up by four basis points. lisa: the last time they closed above 4% was december 13 on a fed meeting day. i am watching the payrolls report, the fact that expectation is 185,000. i watching hourly average
by the fed? i don't know why they are waiting for march. , in -- come out in a few days and say this is when we do the first rate cut. jonathan: we have this gap in market and the federal reserve. the market coming toward the federal reserve. off of the back of recent data, just interfered of better-than-expected data in the last couple days. lisa: yesterday -- said it is a little optimistic today to think it is going to happen so soon, talking about rate cuts, as soon as march. people have...
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Jan 4, 2024
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as far as the markets and the fed, i think at times the fed, even though there has been some pushback the easing that got priced in, i think at times the, definitely jay powell is like, let the markets do what they want. i know they don't like the markets being so out of bounds to their reality, but they have seen it before, that the markets kind of lead ahead of them and have gotten back in shape. i think we have seen that with today's data that showed unemployment claims were stronger than we thought, and the adp. we are seeing pricing coming out of this march cut. it is just a little over 50%. i think the market is going to dictate, so i think the fed is going to say, the markets will come in line if the data falls that way. they did not reveal too much in the minutes, but it did not come off as uber-dovish. i think the fed lets the market dance, but i think we need a lot tomorrow to change the market as far as fundamentally pricing in easing for all of next year. katie: you think about the dance the market is doing right now, between five and six cuts priced in for 2024. you go ba
as far as the markets and the fed, i think at times the fed, even though there has been some pushback the easing that got priced in, i think at times the, definitely jay powell is like, let the markets do what they want. i know they don't like the markets being so out of bounds to their reality, but they have seen it before, that the markets kind of lead ahead of them and have gotten back in shape. i think we have seen that with today's data that showed unemployment claims were stronger than we...
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Jan 21, 2024
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i want, i want to come back to the fed.ore we do that, i wanted to talk a little bit more about sort of the economic record that you were citing earlier. sure. i think it's important to note for our viewers who might not be as familiar with the statistics that what we saw in the first couple of years of the trump administration before the onset of the pandemic, basically looked quite a bit like what we were seeing in the years before trump took office. you know, we were awaiting an economic cycle, sort of that 150000 to 200000 per month range growth was in the sort of 1.7, 1.8% annual range. you know, pretty consistent with those last couple of years. and so i guess i wonder, you know, a, do you think it's fair to criticize that as being slow growth at a time when it seemed kind of like what perhaps the economy was capable of? so that that's. question and then question b is why do you think it's fair to coronavirus s within that period? because i think a lot of economists would say the coronavirus was such an exceptional, u
i want, i want to come back to the fed.ore we do that, i wanted to talk a little bit more about sort of the economic record that you were citing earlier. sure. i think it's important to note for our viewers who might not be as familiar with the statistics that what we saw in the first couple of years of the trump administration before the onset of the pandemic, basically looked quite a bit like what we were seeing in the years before trump took office. you know, we were awaiting an economic...
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Jan 29, 2024
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it may matter more than the fed. three american troops killed, dozens injured in a drone strike in jordan. how close are we in economic contagion? my perils on the unhappy nation. why the "partridge family" may be the secret weapon to propel us out of the doldrums. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: let's face it, the stock market has been an absolute rocket ship pulling up against gravitational forces that normally slow or bring the stock market back to earth, right? we see it expressed on so many levels. now here's the thing, 69% on the earnings side, one of the issues 69% of s&p companies have beaten the street so far but the historic average, the five-year his tore rack average 77%. 10-year, 74%. that is not helping us. nothing really seems to matter because this rocket ship keeps motoring ahead. this is your earnings chart. what we're talking about here, s&p earnings so far have not been that great. now here's the thing, 13 stocks are responsible for the rally this year. five of them, five
it may matter more than the fed. three american troops killed, dozens injured in a drone strike in jordan. how close are we in economic contagion? my perils on the unhappy nation. why the "partridge family" may be the secret weapon to propel us out of the doldrums. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: let's face it, the stock market has been an absolute rocket ship pulling up against gravitational forces that normally slow or bring the stock market back...
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Jan 31, 2024
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this is fed decision day. remember the middle of december when the chairman study were talking about rate cut. which one is it today? lisa: everyone has gotten carried away with rate cut's and probably just press conference will remove the bias. we will be parsing through the irregularities this and at the press conference. unlikely that they will make a move but they will probably lay the groundwork to make that move may be march, maybe in may and maybe after that. jonathan: when did talk about tech earnings. high expectations. before we start talking about disappointment, let's talk about the last 12 months. alphabet was up 60%. microsoft was up 65%. you have to bear that in mind before you look at the premarket price action and consider the numbers of yesterday. annmarie: i cannot agree more. the bar was incredibly high. we were asking yesterday is the bar high. the answer is absolutely. people want more. these earnings were not bad. microsoft's net income rose to the strongest quarterly expansion going bac
this is fed decision day. remember the middle of december when the chairman study were talking about rate cut. which one is it today? lisa: everyone has gotten carried away with rate cut's and probably just press conference will remove the bias. we will be parsing through the irregularities this and at the press conference. unlikely that they will make a move but they will probably lay the groundwork to make that move may be march, maybe in may and maybe after that. jonathan: when did talk...
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Jan 30, 2024
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our focus on the fed and our focus on the fed loosening liquidity conditions, have allowed us to lookncluding geopolitical risks. where this comes in is can we continue to rely on our focus solely on the fed of these mounting issues on the sideline? >> the pacing of the fed cuts, we were at, i don't know, close to 90% after a march rate cut after the previous powell conference and we are down to a 50/50, and risk markets have done well since then and the economy has not missed a beat. in fact, if anything we are getting the impression the economy is resistant to higher rates, and yields were above 5%. you would think this would start to bite but it's not doing it just yet. >> right. and there's a big debate, mike. if you focus on the flow, you would be incredibly optimistic about the economy and the markets. inflation is coming down, and interest rates are coming down, affordability for consumers is going up, and ample liquidity. the flow side is really encouraging. we just have to manage the stock, and the stock is first, the lag effect of the rate hikes. second, the fact that you ha
our focus on the fed and our focus on the fed loosening liquidity conditions, have allowed us to lookncluding geopolitical risks. where this comes in is can we continue to rely on our focus solely on the fed of these mounting issues on the sideline? >> the pacing of the fed cuts, we were at, i don't know, close to 90% after a march rate cut after the previous powell conference and we are down to a 50/50, and risk markets have done well since then and the economy has not missed a beat. in...
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Jan 31, 2024
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we count on them every fed day. i appreciate your time and we look forward to the next one, jeffrey, thank you. >>> jeffrey gun lock joining us exclusively as he does every fed meeting. you will continue to see him here joining me now, wealth management josh brown, we will get a quick comment for-- from you after we break. >> i think jeff came on in november and was enthusiastic. the only thing that has really changed from then until now is we had one of the best three month periods in the history of the stock market. we did plus 19%. quite frankly, we have done that less than 20 times the last hundred years. the problem with the recession case is that on 16 of those 17 occasions, not only did you not have stocks lowered, but you had no recession. in fact, the market was up an average of 30% one year later. i would have to hear the case for why this time will be different. if you think we have this $5 trillion rally in the stock market over the course of 90 days, over absolutely nothing, that is a really interesting
we count on them every fed day. i appreciate your time and we look forward to the next one, jeffrey, thank you. >>> jeffrey gun lock joining us exclusively as he does every fed meeting. you will continue to see him here joining me now, wealth management josh brown, we will get a quick comment for-- from you after we break. >> i think jeff came on in november and was enthusiastic. the only thing that has really changed from then until now is we had one of the best three month...
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Jan 31, 2024
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again, the fed decision is imminent. let's get right to steve liesman for the big rate decision. >> the federal reserve, leaving rates unchanged at five and a quarter to 5 1/2%. the statement twice mentions the possibility of changing the funds rate, for the rate cuts that are nebulous, maybe even a bit hawkish, depending on where you come from. i want to redo the statement. "the committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range. it has gained greater confidence that's -- that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%." he later says that inflation has eased but remains elevated. it is saying that the committee will only cut rates when it is confident that inflation is moving to the 2% target. no mention of whether it has that confidence. the statement also says, in considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the outlook and the balance of risk. the committee will remove the bias that was in there for hiking. add
again, the fed decision is imminent. let's get right to steve liesman for the big rate decision. >> the federal reserve, leaving rates unchanged at five and a quarter to 5 1/2%. the statement twice mentions the possibility of changing the funds rate, for the rate cuts that are nebulous, maybe even a bit hawkish, depending on where you come from. i want to redo the statement. "the committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range. it has gained greater...
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Jan 22, 2024
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and then the fed made it all possible.ho passed basis, should have gotten a pretty bad feedback from the bond market, saying, hey, if you're going to pump the deficit at this late stage of the business cycle, at this kind of rate, interest g to go up and go up. substantial sharply. and so the fed stepped in and basically monetize most of the new debt that was being created by this first bill. and then, of course, the cares act was just a warm up put anot2 trillion on and shortly thereafter, biden added his 2 trillion, most of which was just a continuation of like the $600 a week unemployed payment. tapper that trump hadacked and signed into law twice another round of stimulus checks, which he had actually advocated 2000 per the campaign when he was running for reelection. so, you know, i say he's as responsible for that last 2 trillion as anybody else. well, it added up to 6.5 trillion in 12 months. i mean, this is crazy. it was 150% of the normal on. in 365 days. and most of it was either or wet continuous of measures tha
and then the fed made it all possible.ho passed basis, should have gotten a pretty bad feedback from the bond market, saying, hey, if you're going to pump the deficit at this late stage of the business cycle, at this kind of rate, interest g to go up and go up. substantial sharply. and so the fed stepped in and basically monetize most of the new debt that was being created by this first bill. and then, of course, the cares act was just a warm up put anot2 trillion on and shortly thereafter,...
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Jan 11, 2024
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judy shelton, is the fed woke, is the fed bound by dei. let me add-on dei and climate change, will they dominate the fed agenda? >> there was a study of the political affiliation of the 500 federal reserve economists, 400 of whom have phd's. and the ratio of republicans to democrats was 1 to 10. 10 times as many democrats. and i think that a certain political philosophy permeates the fed, it the ethos, i find is laughable people dismiss the pos pi possibility that fed can could anything but nonpartisan, you consider janet yell e yellen is one of the most important people in biden cabinet. to think they became democrats when they walked out of the door of the fed is missing a lot. the fed is seeking to be a player, in this realm. i hope that the discouragement of being concerned with climate change and dei is taking hold, i think they have been shamed, fed's only social concern to be -- should be to the integrity of the money. larry: these are questions, have you ever worried your unprocessed natural hair might be deemed unprofessional. >>
judy shelton, is the fed woke, is the fed bound by dei. let me add-on dei and climate change, will they dominate the fed agenda? >> there was a study of the political affiliation of the 500 federal reserve economists, 400 of whom have phd's. and the ratio of republicans to democrats was 1 to 10. 10 times as many democrats. and i think that a certain political philosophy permeates the fed, it the ethos, i find is laughable people dismiss the pos pi possibility that fed can could anything...
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Jan 30, 2024
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could that put the fed on pause?h the fomc meeting kicking oftoday, paul mccullough tells us when the rate cuts may be. and five of the magnificent seven stocks reporting this week. while microsoft and alphabetare at record highs, ai could derail one of those runs. >>> social media ceos could be in for a fiery hearing on capitol hill tomorrow. the snapchat calls it a seat belt moment as companies and lawmakers rook to reign in the negative impacts on kids. who's taking the stand and who is notably absent from that? >>> before all that, let's check on the markets right now. the dow, the s&p 500 and the nasdaq, you can see there pretty much moving at least to the upside marginally for the dow industrials. the s&p down about one quarter of 1%. the nasdaq up nearly 1%. checking on treasuries, the ten-year hitting its lowest level in about two weeks ahead of tomorrow's big rate decision from the fed. right now, the ten-year note yield, 0.8 it looks like. the two-year note yield 4.8%. let's get the bad news out first. ups
could that put the fed on pause?h the fomc meeting kicking oftoday, paul mccullough tells us when the rate cuts may be. and five of the magnificent seven stocks reporting this week. while microsoft and alphabetare at record highs, ai could derail one of those runs. >>> social media ceos could be in for a fiery hearing on capitol hill tomorrow. the snapchat calls it a seat belt moment as companies and lawmakers rook to reign in the negative impacts on kids. who's taking the stand and...
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Jan 31, 2024
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so much more than what the fed has signaled. so the fed does have this really difficult task.harles: right. >> of trying to appropriately signal what it is thinking about without letting the markets run ahead. if the markets run ahead, then to some extent it makes the fed's job more difficult. it actually, in a way is providing easier financial conditions which negates the need for the fed to have to cut rates. so it is not an easy job. charles: it really isn't. michelle, we're tight on time. thank you so much. always appreciate your expertise. >> thanks so much, charles. take care. charles: we're watching the treasury department this morning, talking about how their auctions are going to go. this qra thing has become a real big deal. got me thinking about the relationship between the badger and coyote. listen to me. something i've been fascinated about a long time. recently a lot of videos on the internet with the relationship between the badger and coyote. it is, here's the thing. it is really great. some people use it to discredit individualism and promote mutualism all dif
so much more than what the fed has signaled. so the fed does have this really difficult task.harles: right. >> of trying to appropriately signal what it is thinking about without letting the markets run ahead. if the markets run ahead, then to some extent it makes the fed's job more difficult. it actually, in a way is providing easier financial conditions which negates the need for the fed to have to cut rates. so it is not an easy job. charles: it really isn't. michelle, we're tight on...
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Jan 31, 2024
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we're talking the fed meeting at 2:00 p.m. eastern.he lowest level we've seen since about the first week of january. okay, that's your morning setup. now we want to turn our attention back to tech earnings. we're watching alphabet and microsoft, both moving lower ahead of the "opening bell." our arjun kharpal joining me from london with both. good morning. >> good morning, frank. to set the context here, microsoft and alphabet set a high. there was little room for disappointment for both companies. alphabet ended out the worst of the two. microsoft posted its most positive growth since 2022. cloud, meanwhile, was a bright spot with 2.6% while google attempts to catch up with microsoft and amazon. speak ing of microsoft, that i beat on the top line. more or less in line with the market expectations while azure revenue, which, of course, was closely watched was up around 30% year over year. the company says ai products boosted azure revenue by 6.6%. microsoft shares were around 2% -- down around 2% premarket. not as much as alphabet. inv
we're talking the fed meeting at 2:00 p.m. eastern.he lowest level we've seen since about the first week of january. okay, that's your morning setup. now we want to turn our attention back to tech earnings. we're watching alphabet and microsoft, both moving lower ahead of the "opening bell." our arjun kharpal joining me from london with both. good morning. >> good morning, frank. to set the context here, microsoft and alphabet set a high. there was little room for disappointment...
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Jan 10, 2024
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what does the fed have to do, the fed has to look at its book.have $7.6 trillion of assets we bought on our book. it was 4.1 trillion before covid. we started to qt it. we started to let some bonds roll off not buying more. but secretly what they did when the banks were failing last year is they created a new facility into which they created new money and for which banks have basically borrowed, more borrowing a record $141 billion just this year, this calendar year. charles: right. >> so debt's a problem. charles: and again to your point it's, you know, this qt was letting it roll off but we have silicon valley bank all these new facilities they're all maxed out. then why, what do you think motivated jay powell to take this somewhat victory lap? wall street loves it. bond market loves it but why did he do it now? i just don't know why he had to do it right now? >> i think two reasons, one we talked about the banks are literally having problems still right now because of what they did hiking rates so far so fast and all of these treasury bonds de
what does the fed have to do, the fed has to look at its book.have $7.6 trillion of assets we bought on our book. it was 4.1 trillion before covid. we started to qt it. we started to let some bonds roll off not buying more. but secretly what they did when the banks were failing last year is they created a new facility into which they created new money and for which banks have basically borrowed, more borrowing a record $141 billion just this year, this calendar year. charles: right. >> so...
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Jan 22, 2024
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cut by the fed. really? how about this? no way at all. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, we saw abramowitz and anthony overturn. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. your equity market on the s&p 500 positive by a third of 1%. bramo, leaving behind the gloom and doom of davos. lisa: does it feel like record highs? it is down on the year. nvidia up 20%. is this just nvidia driving the entire market up? jonathan: let's talk about the politics. the gift that keeps on giving to the news cycle. the republican cycle goes from three to two. lisa: a head-to-head race in new hampshire. nikki haley and former president donald trump. in a foreign a half minute video, ron desantis endorses the former president. jonathan: consumer confidence bouncing back, inflation expectations coming in. lisa: if you take a look at markets, that seems to be the implication as you see bonds losing value but stocks gaining. we can exist at these types of rates and c
cut by the fed. really? how about this? no way at all. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, we saw abramowitz and anthony overturn. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. your equity market on the s&p 500 positive by a third of 1%. bramo, leaving behind the gloom and doom of davos. lisa: does it feel like record highs? it is down on the year. nvidia up 20%. is this just nvidia driving the entire market up? jonathan: let's...
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Jan 20, 2024
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i don't believe in the fed very much. way beyond anything that is necessary or rational. micromanage a $26 trillion world gdp.at is enmeshed they can't do it, their tools are to rubbery and weak and ineffective. uldn't be trying to do all of the macro management they do. i am a total skeptic, i am as anti-fed as they come and that colors my view of this. hat a republican president would say -- and listen we have to look at the statistics, this is 2017 and 2018 when they were trying to begin to raise rates. we have gone through a period of eight years, from the spring200e president, 108 months inhi the fed refunds rate, when you subtract inflation, i use the 16% api but you can use others if yout, was negative in real terms. in other words, eight years of negative real interest8 rates in the money market. eight years where you had interest rates almost zero bound. that was totally inappropriate i think, and a republican president inheri that, and notwithstanding all of the niceties about the independence of the fed, which
i don't believe in the fed very much. way beyond anything that is necessary or rational. micromanage a $26 trillion world gdp.at is enmeshed they can't do it, their tools are to rubbery and weak and ineffective. uldn't be trying to do all of the macro management they do. i am a total skeptic, i am as anti-fed as they come and that colors my view of this. hat a republican president would say -- and listen we have to look at the statistics, this is 2017 and 2018 when they were trying to begin to...
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Jan 31, 2024
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i guess you could -- but the vix was elevated long before the fed presser today, right, or fed announcement, which we've had that conversation on our call. and i think the market was looking for an excuse and we talked about earnings last night. so, you can absolutely cast blame on this fed presser today and all the commentary out of it. i would submit to your earlier point, it shouldn't be a surprise and maybe there's something else going on right now. >> michael, what do you think? >> you know, the -- let's put aside the market move for a second, i think it was completely irrational for the market to be pricing in such a high odds of a cut in march. so, that certainly did not surprise us at all. i think it's completely irrational that the market is pricing in six cuts until the end of the year. that just doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to us whatsoever. the way that i look at it is, what's the higher probability, right with gdp humming at 5%, 3%, the consumer still strong, profit growth accelerating, that we're in recession that causes the fed to cut, you know, six times? or that mayb
i guess you could -- but the vix was elevated long before the fed presser today, right, or fed announcement, which we've had that conversation on our call. and i think the market was looking for an excuse and we talked about earnings last night. so, you can absolutely cast blame on this fed presser today and all the commentary out of it. i would submit to your earlier point, it shouldn't be a surprise and maybe there's something else going on right now. >> michael, what do you think?...
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Jan 3, 2024
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we will get fed speak, too., a soft landing is conceivable but in no way inevitable. they also to be on a path back to normal levels. lisa: this to me is mediocre pushback. you are not releasing seen any reaction in the market. this is, look, pump the brakes, this is at a time when everyone has priced this in to perfection and this is the balance we will hear in the couple of minutes. jonathan: two way risk around the conversation for rate cuts. tom: that is a nice way of putting it, that there is an asymmetry the last 90 days, certainly after powell's extravaganza couple of weeks ago, and the answer is, yes, they would like to become more symmetric about the outcomes. no surprise. barkin saying more additional rate hikes that remain on the table, so that is creating that symmetric approach that they dream of, maybe dream is the operative word. jonathan: michael mckee can talk to us about the dream of the year, let's talk about the fed speak and the data, what are you looking for? michael: everybody is looking f
we will get fed speak, too., a soft landing is conceivable but in no way inevitable. they also to be on a path back to normal levels. lisa: this to me is mediocre pushback. you are not releasing seen any reaction in the market. this is, look, pump the brakes, this is at a time when everyone has priced this in to perfection and this is the balance we will hear in the couple of minutes. jonathan: two way risk around the conversation for rate cuts. tom: that is a nice way of putting it, that there...
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Jan 29, 2024
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in addition to the two ivan dave fed meeting on tuesday-- two-day fed meeting on tuesday, we have a slew of labor market data including adp on wednesday, jobless claims thursday, and the u.s. government official monthly employment report on friday. if that's not enough, how about earnings reports from 108 of the 500 s&p companies, including five of the six biggest weightings? let's start the shawn donnan out and bring in bloomberg intelligence senior intelligence analyst mandeep singh and anurag rana. there is going to be a lot of focus on the highest-rated member of the s&p, microsoft. what are the expectations going into the earnings report? >> just talking about microsoft, we are looking at an acceleration in revenue growth rate, cloud growth rate. i think it is going to be a fun quarter for microsoft because not only do they have to like about how much contribution from ai was there, but also they have to give guidance that is going to be much faster than what the street is. expectations are very high for microsoft. we do expect overall revenue growth to improve this year. having sai
in addition to the two ivan dave fed meeting on tuesday-- two-day fed meeting on tuesday, we have a slew of labor market data including adp on wednesday, jobless claims thursday, and the u.s. government official monthly employment report on friday. if that's not enough, how about earnings reports from 108 of the 500 s&p companies, including five of the six biggest weightings? let's start the shawn donnan out and bring in bloomberg intelligence senior intelligence analyst mandeep singh and...
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Jan 10, 2024
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then the fed can come in. that's what we think it's coming for. >> you think their reaction function hinges on cpi, to some extent cpe. you think that throws their timeline a few months further into question? >> it makes it less comfortable for the fed. it's interesting, when you talk to clients out there and look at various forecasts, people are very much clustered thinking about core cpi. either it's plus 22 or plus 23 for december. no one says 0 .4. if you get an upside surprise, that would be a shock. so i suspect you would have the policymakersed a the fed saying maybe we have to think about this going forward. the market would price for a much longer period in that event. the fed may not change its tune too much. there have been so many countercurrents to deal with the fed. >> david, what about you? are you a little uncomfortable with the fact that we have had yields back up, stocks are off to a sloppy start? >> i think it makes sense given the santa claus rally that happened in many different asset clas
then the fed can come in. that's what we think it's coming for. >> you think their reaction function hinges on cpi, to some extent cpe. you think that throws their timeline a few months further into question? >> it makes it less comfortable for the fed. it's interesting, when you talk to clients out there and look at various forecasts, people are very much clustered thinking about core cpi. either it's plus 22 or plus 23 for december. no one says 0 .4. if you get an upside surprise,...
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Jan 17, 2024
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fed governor christopher waller said yesterday the fed should not rush into rate cuts. he's right. why is he right? well just think of this, prices still rising, inflicting significant damage to middle and lower income affordability. in fact over the past three years typical family wages are about 4% below the increase of inflation. the inflation rate itself still above the fed's 2% target. the unemployment rate still less than 4%. retail sales came out today, at least through the christmas holiday season are holding up nicely. the biden administration still running a huge, roughly two trillion dollar budget deficit, driven principally by spending the gdp rate nearly over 24%. compare that to the 50 year average of 20% as they poured five trillion dollars into the economy since coming into office. there is no recession at the moment. this could change but the atlanta fed's gdp now q4 estimate is currently 2.4%. it's not a boom but it's not a bust either. there are chinks in the economic armor for sure, most especially a long slump in manufacturing output and jobs but if the demand
fed governor christopher waller said yesterday the fed should not rush into rate cuts. he's right. why is he right? well just think of this, prices still rising, inflicting significant damage to middle and lower income affordability. in fact over the past three years typical family wages are about 4% below the increase of inflation. the inflation rate itself still above the fed's 2% target. the unemployment rate still less than 4%. retail sales came out today, at least through the christmas...
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Jan 30, 2024
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boy, it's all about the fed.ally shocked at some of the data points on the first of two-day fed meeting days. look at the headline for consumer confidence. the best in two years. just a whisker shy of 115. the best since 2021. but it didn't end there. current conditions even blew that away. the best in nearly 40 years a reading of 161.3. what happened? well, interest rates popped, up over five bases points as we sit right now. 2-year yields and about unchanged on 10-year yields. but what's really interesting and to answer your question, contessa, is normally one would think strong data, better jolt, should have pushed long rates higher. it should have steepened the curve. what it did was it inverted it more. it inverted it by six bases points because it's all about the fed. the stronger data, knocked down the percentages of a fed rate cut in march to under 40% from around 50%. as i said many times, that march meeting is way off into the distance when it comes to accuracy of fed fund futures. but it's important to
boy, it's all about the fed.ally shocked at some of the data points on the first of two-day fed meeting days. look at the headline for consumer confidence. the best in two years. just a whisker shy of 115. the best since 2021. but it didn't end there. current conditions even blew that away. the best in nearly 40 years a reading of 161.3. what happened? well, interest rates popped, up over five bases points as we sit right now. 2-year yields and about unchanged on 10-year yields. but what's...
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Jan 26, 2024
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>> i think there is a unwritten message from the fed they prefer not to tinker with rates the fed has been willing to raise rates or cut rates during the election year with both incumbent republican and democrats. that won't preclude them from adjusting policy if it is in the best interest of achieving the dual mandate. >> david, you disagree which makes for a great cable segment. tell us why. >> we are confident if they don't cut in march, they will cut at the may meeting it all comes down to inflation and inflation moderating in the face of the economy which is still hotter than most people expect the fed was late with inflation rising i think the fed has to be aware of the opposite side that with the economy starting to weaken here, and they are trying to engineer the soft landing, they don't want to get behind the ball and start cutting early enough i think they need to cut and if they don't cut, it changes our base case from the soft landing into the recession territory >> you think recession is still in the offing? >> that is not the base case the base case is the fed starts to
>> i think there is a unwritten message from the fed they prefer not to tinker with rates the fed has been willing to raise rates or cut rates during the election year with both incumbent republican and democrats. that won't preclude them from adjusting policy if it is in the best interest of achieving the dual mandate. >> david, you disagree which makes for a great cable segment. tell us why. >> we are confident if they don't cut in march, they will cut at the may meeting it...
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Jan 12, 2024
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the fed by the end of the first quarter.ng if you think about gdp annualizing at four and a half percent for the past two quarters. with the fed looking to cut rates. that hasn't happened in 40 years. so, that's an enormouslyr equit, we're really bullish on the environment right now. >> i guess i would suggest that you mention to the trailing gdp growth rate is pretty high for the fed cutting rates. you think the economy has still got some momentum and is going to be able to withstand the lag affects of what is happening with rates? >> i think cutting rates right now would be a good thing to do. the bond market doesn't expect them to cut it at this next upcoming meeting. but i think it would not be a bad idea to cut rates 25 tips just to let everyone know they are not asleep at the wheel. as you point out, there are lag affects, but things are still strong. unemployment is low, commodities are at three years low measured by the c r b. things that they're broadly are pretty good, actually. >> certainly what we can observe at
the fed by the end of the first quarter.ng if you think about gdp annualizing at four and a half percent for the past two quarters. with the fed looking to cut rates. that hasn't happened in 40 years. so, that's an enormouslyr equit, we're really bullish on the environment right now. >> i guess i would suggest that you mention to the trailing gdp growth rate is pretty high for the fed cutting rates. you think the economy has still got some momentum and is going to be able to withstand the...
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Jan 31, 2024
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the new york community bank thing and that's the fed aside from the fed and everything the fed said and even if they just said. >> they took out the line that said banks are still in great shape and it's kind of humorous they took it out the same day we have a problem. they'd have to realize this new york community bank is the one that bought signature bank's assets and the problem eight months ago and there's a problem with the same bank again and the meeting was set before that and paul pushed back on march and opened the door for qt. liz: quantitative tightening. >> right, and rates moved from pci number on friday to where we are today. he was somewhat hawkish and i believe rates go lower than yield in the next few days and problem with unemployment number and jp morgan's number is like 250 or 240 or something like that. average is 185 and have to go to inflation. nothing with the economy. liz. the precursor of the jobs report on friday was adp number and that was a miss, which was interesting and labor market as powell said which was slightly slower and getting to stocks here, gabri
the new york community bank thing and that's the fed aside from the fed and everything the fed said and even if they just said. >> they took out the line that said banks are still in great shape and it's kind of humorous they took it out the same day we have a problem. they'd have to realize this new york community bank is the one that bought signature bank's assets and the problem eight months ago and there's a problem with the same bank again and the meeting was set before that and paul...
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Jan 3, 2024
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even if the fed does find the room to cut rates a couple of times.a non- recessionary rate cut scenario, it's a different outlook. we are getting a more classic recessionary rate cut environment. sonali: larry -- jon: very helpful as always. the chief u.s. economist joining us and we will have full coverage of those fed minutes coming up but for the broader market story right now, we're continuing to see investors reassess after essentially what ended up being the biggest global row since 1999 in the first full day of trading yesterday. first and alabaster, am -- for sonali basak, i am jon erlichman. this is bloomberg. ♪ sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. >> from studio two at boebert headquarters in new york, i am romaine bostick alongs
even if the fed does find the room to cut rates a couple of times.a non- recessionary rate cut scenario, it's a different outlook. we are getting a more classic recessionary rate cut environment. sonali: larry -- jon: very helpful as always. the chief u.s. economist joining us and we will have full coverage of those fed minutes coming up but for the broader market story right now, we're continuing to see investors reassess after essentially what ended up being the biggest global row since 1999...
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Jan 31, 2024
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the fed knows that.f they are lowering rates now and the pressure comes later they will have additional strong issues about lowering rates and at that point they will need to. if they have already lowered rates as think it will send mixed signals to the market. >> chair powell was cautious with his language when talking about the avoidance of a hard landing or a recession. would you say with confidence those are avoided and inflation is defeated? thomas: i would not say that. we have a regional banking system and a leveraged economic system in the united states. something could go wrong easy with rates and loss of confidence. they have to work their way through this and that is what they are doing, carefully, cautiously. hopefully, they get through this by the end of this year or next year. then they might be able to declare victory, not now. that would be way premature. annabelle: there has been debate as to whether the last mile of disinflation is more arduous than the rest. where you stand on that? th
the fed knows that.f they are lowering rates now and the pressure comes later they will have additional strong issues about lowering rates and at that point they will need to. if they have already lowered rates as think it will send mixed signals to the market. >> chair powell was cautious with his language when talking about the avoidance of a hard landing or a recession. would you say with confidence those are avoided and inflation is defeated? thomas: i would not say that. we have a...
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Jan 30, 2024
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in terms of the fed, there is a little more wiggle room. we expect them to remove the tightening bias which is the consensus across the street with the audit for cut at 50-50. as they've focus on dovish suspects like we have seen inflation come down, there are external shocks in the middle east and china or do they discuss the strong labor market and work to be done on inflation. i think there is some wiggle room in what we get out of the fed tomorrow which is why we are flat today. romaine: do you think they will have the clarity to see what comes out of jay powell's mouth or the labor market report or will we need another month, two months to piece it together? stuart: it was a price be if we end up frustrated with the fed. there is going to be a complaint one way or the other. in terms of the jobs report, if you predict something in the high range, we have seen momentum strong and this will be a continuation of that. average hourly earnings were an upside surprise so that will be some nuance below the service. if we see an upside in wage
in terms of the fed, there is a little more wiggle room. we expect them to remove the tightening bias which is the consensus across the street with the audit for cut at 50-50. as they've focus on dovish suspects like we have seen inflation come down, there are external shocks in the middle east and china or do they discuss the strong labor market and work to be done on inflation. i think there is some wiggle room in what we get out of the fed tomorrow which is why we are flat today. romaine: do...
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Jan 2, 2024
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the core services is still higher than where the fed would want it.hink that's where the surprises is going to be at the core service side is going to remain on the higher side because of household net worth being so strong and wages being strong. >> i also find it noteworthy that goldman sachs are still out there as the most dovish this year, ex-ppecting these fed rat cuts, and maybe it's a mechanical thing. even if inflation comes down, the fed should be easing just to make sure they're not tightening implicitly. >> and i think goldman responded recently to the commentary that came out of the most recent fed meeting. well, that can change, too. so i think that this year is going to be very different than the years past. we have been in this momentum thing of first rate hikes, then gradually people are looking for the recession. that's gotten pushed out. i think now for this year, the surprise will be, we have a lot of easing built into the market with stocks at all-time highs, house prices at all-time highs and wages growing. so i think the surprise
the core services is still higher than where the fed would want it.hink that's where the surprises is going to be at the core service side is going to remain on the higher side because of household net worth being so strong and wages being strong. >> i also find it noteworthy that goldman sachs are still out there as the most dovish this year, ex-ppecting these fed rat cuts, and maybe it's a mechanical thing. even if inflation comes down, the fed should be easing just to make sure they're...
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Jan 23, 2024
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there is such expectations around the fed. could get sell the news fed.harles: even with a rate cut? >> expectation is built in. it keeps us going, keeps us looking for it. when the news comes in it is so priced you may get sell on the news. charles: associated with more signs of recession? >> look at the fundamentals of economy. the economy is much stronger than anybody expected. this year the bar was so low coming into 2023 the economy held up strong. it is cold in new hampshire the economy has been warm, the market has been hot. that is the lesson we have to learn, even the fed gets it wrong. focus back on stocks, not worry about -- charles: focused on stocks where are you focused within that whole area? >> as we shift into the postelection paradigm we think what the world may look like. we know businesses will do well regardless of the outcomb. we talked aboutth idea about infrastructure names. go beyond digital infrastructure. start thinking about industrial production is so bad in in country, they're giving away industrial names. nobody wants them.
there is such expectations around the fed. could get sell the news fed.harles: even with a rate cut? >> expectation is built in. it keeps us going, keeps us looking for it. when the news comes in it is so priced you may get sell on the news. charles: associated with more signs of recession? >> look at the fundamentals of economy. the economy is much stronger than anybody expected. this year the bar was so low coming into 2023 the economy held up strong. it is cold in new hampshire...
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Jan 4, 2024
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the other issue, we talk all about interest rates and the fed, the fed, the fed, and they're hugely important talk around in circles about what the fed may or may not do in their projections in the past and give a notion we should spend less time doing that, the reality is, the market's starting to focus on other issues. maybe it's $34 trillion in debt. maybe it's servicings debt or the fact that there's been a lot of movement -- go on. >> i want to pick up on that. throw the question to skanda. we aren't yet at a point where the market can set an interest rate the way the market wants to set it kind of irrespective of the heavy hand of the fed, and i guess i say that by pointing out, the fed can stay tighter for longer, but the market may not want to. where are we at in that process? i know the fed is coming off reducing the heavy hand but it's still pretty important in terms where rates are set. especially on the short end of the curve. >> right. so we have a very high level of fed funds rate in terms of 5.23% but look at long-term treasury yields. all anticipating some path towards cuts. s
the other issue, we talk all about interest rates and the fed, the fed, the fed, and they're hugely important talk around in circles about what the fed may or may not do in their projections in the past and give a notion we should spend less time doing that, the reality is, the market's starting to focus on other issues. maybe it's $34 trillion in debt. maybe it's servicings debt or the fact that there's been a lot of movement -- go on. >> i want to pick up on that. throw the question to...
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Jan 11, 2024
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the fed did them.put it differently, does this white house economic team think we should be having rate cuts right now? >> that's not putting it very differently. we're just not going to get into the fed's knitting. we track rates very closely. mortgage rates, the fact that rates have come down about a point is very helpful. i would like to see them come down further, because i think there's a potential there to unlock some housing supply. so let's track that. but when it comes to the fed, we're going to stay way out of their knitting. >> jared, that's what is called by kelly taking one for the people. she asks a question that she knows you're not going to answer. i have one more -- sorry, is there time for one more question? >> go ahead, steve. >> yeah. jared, when it comes to making a deal on the budget, are you optimistic here that we'll be able to keep the government from being shut down? what is your latest read of what's happening right now in congress and in terms of the back and forth with the
the fed did them.put it differently, does this white house economic team think we should be having rate cuts right now? >> that's not putting it very differently. we're just not going to get into the fed's knitting. we track rates very closely. mortgage rates, the fact that rates have come down about a point is very helpful. i would like to see them come down further, because i think there's a potential there to unlock some housing supply. so let's track that. but when it comes to the...
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Jan 21, 2024
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stimulates that fed funds rate at a lower rate.aul: we can imagine a scenario that the government needs -- economy needs support and we come back to the ai section, this is the fourth industrial revolution. you need to expect creative disruption that comes along with that. any stocks you are avoiding as well? >> unfortunately, this industrial revolution is the one that is going to change the face of human capital as we know it. there are so many people that think this is a blue-collar situation and you go into your fast food restaurant and it will be all dramatized. it is beyond that. drivers, universally, potentially losing positions, blue-collar, but also chatgpt for example, we already have had lawyers submit briefs that have been quickly generated by chatgpt. you have all of the data of the united states and the court cases into a singular database and you say craft me a brief, leading these arguments using these case laws, everything eventually will come down to canopy systematized through ai -- can it be systematized through
stimulates that fed funds rate at a lower rate.aul: we can imagine a scenario that the government needs -- economy needs support and we come back to the ai section, this is the fourth industrial revolution. you need to expect creative disruption that comes along with that. any stocks you are avoiding as well? >> unfortunately, this industrial revolution is the one that is going to change the face of human capital as we know it. there are so many people that think this is a blue-collar...
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Jan 29, 2024
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on payrolls and the fed, i do not think the fed is going to move this month. to help people ground their expectations and build a base case for what easing looks like this year. we are going to have the jobs report friday. the reason the fed is going to be cautious is because the economy is running hot. jobs numbers have been good. they do not want to paint themselves in a corner and end them -- end up with a print. you have earnings. markets have moved aggressively. the earnings need to come through. i think got is where we are spending a lot of time thinking, look at expectations particularly for the big growers, the tech companies. they are pretty solid. earnings need to be delivered. this is our first glimpse into what that looks like into next year. lisa: earnings have not been consistent across the board. it seems like with each earnings report, it is viewed as a company specific story, not necessarily a broader market trend. do you expect that to continue, or do you think these big tech names have a different patina around them? andrew: if you look at t
on payrolls and the fed, i do not think the fed is going to move this month. to help people ground their expectations and build a base case for what easing looks like this year. we are going to have the jobs report friday. the reason the fed is going to be cautious is because the economy is running hot. jobs numbers have been good. they do not want to paint themselves in a corner and end them -- end up with a print. you have earnings. markets have moved aggressively. the earnings need to come...
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Jan 4, 2024
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pce inflation which the fed tracks is common at 1.9%. that is below the fed target. to see several more months to be sure that inflation is tamed another control especially since the core number has been higher. arguably, we might have already landed this plane. guy: let's talk about boats. up until now, a lot of people, a lot of employers have not wanted to let people go. the reason is that they are worried about the crucial people. when you start to get a big in a pool of people out there, that fear disappears. then you can lay people off. are we going to end up in that kind of scenario? will we go from one side of the boat to the other? >> over the past few months, we have added about 200 70,000 people to the labor force each month. currently, we are only adding around 170,000 jobs each month. at some point, yes unemployment will to cut in the pool of jobseekers will expand. that already appears to be happening. we are seeing a lot of job seeker engagement and we are seeing it's taking longer for people to find new jobs. it does appear the main reason that employe
pce inflation which the fed tracks is common at 1.9%. that is below the fed target. to see several more months to be sure that inflation is tamed another control especially since the core number has been higher. arguably, we might have already landed this plane. guy: let's talk about boats. up until now, a lot of people, a lot of employers have not wanted to let people go. the reason is that they are worried about the crucial people. when you start to get a big in a pool of people out there,...