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Apr 10, 2024
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>> the fed is guesswork. it gives fodder for many that don't really understand the market. >> are you out of your mind? that's crazy talk. >> traders have to live and die by what they trade, by what they trade. >> yes, yes. >> you think those guys know the future any better? >> they don't but they are trading. that is all that matters. >> it has been naked for a decade. >> steve, the florida is yours, rick, hold and we will go back to you. >> the marg t and traders out there trade on every verb, comma, word, spoken by the federal reserve. so my question is --. >> and i know traders who trade on full moon, new moons and where jupiter is in the sky and they are big traders and hedge funds. what does that mean? >> well, i don't know what that means. but my point. >> exactly, i agree. >> if you are arguing that it doesn't matter what the fed said --. >> i didn't say it didn't matter. i said when the feds talk it doesn't mean they get the market right or that the market will pay attention. here's another thing. qt
>> the fed is guesswork. it gives fodder for many that don't really understand the market. >> are you out of your mind? that's crazy talk. >> traders have to live and die by what they trade, by what they trade. >> yes, yes. >> you think those guys know the future any better? >> they don't but they are trading. that is all that matters. >> it has been naked for a decade. >> steve, the florida is yours, rick, hold and we will go back to you....
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Apr 1, 2024
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working against the fed? peter: i think we are ok right now. there is a decent balance. know what is going crazy. we are saying it is probably the end of the hiking cycle. having said that, as some of this data comes through, we might see a resurgence. the other topic is as we are seeing inflation coming down, people are questioning did we ever manage to monitor inflation for last three years? are we heavily understating? you go to the stores and it is not look like things are up 3% or 4% and people are questioning the starting level from this decline. annmarie: if the fed is trying to find an excuse to cut, what could they use in june? say they wanted to cut in june but inflation is still on this path where it is not exactly where they want it to be but it is moderating. is that enough? peter: i think it could be. they will say it is long lag times that we have to get ahead of this. behind the scenes, if they can avoid cutting in september and november they would prefer to do that. if you want to get two cut
working against the fed? peter: i think we are ok right now. there is a decent balance. know what is going crazy. we are saying it is probably the end of the hiking cycle. having said that, as some of this data comes through, we might see a resurgence. the other topic is as we are seeing inflation coming down, people are questioning did we ever manage to monitor inflation for last three years? are we heavily understating? you go to the stores and it is not look like things are up 3% or 4% and...
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Apr 3, 2024
04/24
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is a study of fed history. decades ago when they were trying to fight inflation and decided to ease back on tighter policy too early it had ramifications. he warned about that again in these remarks. he said reversing rates too soon could risk reversal in progress loosening rob -- policy too late or too little could impact economic activity or employment. he said in the q&a there is no risk-free path for him and his colleagues. joe: interesting to hear him speaking about the causes of inflation as well. you made note in the newsroom about his repeated references to the supply side. there is still an ongoing argument in washington about whether joe biden really stoked inflation, and donald trump, for that matter, by overspending. kailey: you hear that a lot especially from conservative wings in washington that fiscal policy contributed to the inflation. trillions of dollars poured into the economy in the aftermath of the pandemic. today chairman powell said inflation was not about demand overheating. he said it
is a study of fed history. decades ago when they were trying to fight inflation and decided to ease back on tighter policy too early it had ramifications. he warned about that again in these remarks. he said reversing rates too soon could risk reversal in progress loosening rob -- policy too late or too little could impact economic activity or employment. he said in the q&a there is no risk-free path for him and his colleagues. joe: interesting to hear him speaking about the causes of...
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Apr 5, 2024
04/24
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jonathan: the fed speak, neel kashkari of the minneapolis fed, the president saying that the fed may not need to cut rates at all this year if inflation continues to move sideways. the cleveland fed president suggested that the central bank could be getting closer to the level of confidence needed to begin lowering interest rates. when we catch up with loretta mester of the cleveland fed, it often sounds like she is on the hawkish side that's not what i got from what i heard yesterday from loretta. lisa: the jury is out and she needs more months, but otherwise things seem to be moving on the same trajectory. the same kind of comment that we heard from fed chair jay powell. there is the question about going forward. what it will take to dunmore the confidence by some of these officials that inflation is truly going -- to unmoore the confidence by some of these officials that inflation is truly going to 2%. jonathan: president biden in a call with prime minister netanyahu saying support for the war in gaza depends on israel taking new steps to protect civilians. israel bracing for pote
jonathan: the fed speak, neel kashkari of the minneapolis fed, the president saying that the fed may not need to cut rates at all this year if inflation continues to move sideways. the cleveland fed president suggested that the central bank could be getting closer to the level of confidence needed to begin lowering interest rates. when we catch up with loretta mester of the cleveland fed, it often sounds like she is on the hawkish side that's not what i got from what i heard yesterday from...
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Apr 12, 2024
04/24
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fed follow-through on the rhetoric on cutting. sonali: i want to point back to an interview with larry summers seeing the cpi print has raised chances the next fed move is actually a hike. larry: this confirms the idea that the neutral rate is way above the 2.6% level that the fed has been using as a northstar. in my view, it puts back on the table -- it is still not what i would expect. sonali: obviously this is not being priced into the markets right now. how do you see the wrist moving forward? noelle: that is definitely a risk but one thing we have not talked a lot about in terms of market participants is the influx we have seen from non- u.s. persons into the u.s. and how that has changed potential growth. we expect that arise a little bit this year. growth above consensus. it will not hit the ball out of the park in terms of growth but we expect potential to rise and that will keep inflation contained. we will see some disinflationary trends which takes the risk off the table. it is something we have to be watching and you d
fed follow-through on the rhetoric on cutting. sonali: i want to point back to an interview with larry summers seeing the cpi print has raised chances the next fed move is actually a hike. larry: this confirms the idea that the neutral rate is way above the 2.6% level that the fed has been using as a northstar. in my view, it puts back on the table -- it is still not what i would expect. sonali: obviously this is not being priced into the markets right now. how do you see the wrist moving...
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Apr 11, 2024
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don't talk about the fed and fed rates. lisa: this is the reason why they don't want to be cutting rates heading into inflation. they don't want politicians talking about them. they don't want to joe biden and for don't want donald trump. if they start cutting rates, who is going to talk about them? everybody. jonathan: hot inflation prints to start the year shaping the financial markets. virginie maisonneuve of allianz global markets, she sees a more stable inflation picture in europe and inflation destabilizing in china. she is with us now. can we talk about what happened yesterday, why the mag7 outperformed on a day went bond yields were up double digits around the curve? virginie: it might be positioning of people taking advantage of uncertainty if they don't have enough tech in their portfolio. i think the mag7 is not particularly where you want to be. you have to look at tech overall and bet on quality trump -- strong balance sheets. cybersecurity and the impact. i think on any retreat -- he to restart your portfolio
don't talk about the fed and fed rates. lisa: this is the reason why they don't want to be cutting rates heading into inflation. they don't want politicians talking about them. they don't want to joe biden and for don't want donald trump. if they start cutting rates, who is going to talk about them? everybody. jonathan: hot inflation prints to start the year shaping the financial markets. virginie maisonneuve of allianz global markets, she sees a more stable inflation picture in europe and...
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Apr 26, 2024
04/24
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>> i don't see why the fed would be rushing to cutting rates. >> a case for fed. easing is pretty small >> the market needs to see a couple of good prints on the data. >> we need to see a swift and compelling and convincing several prints of weaker inflation data. >> i'm convinced inflation is not returning to 2% in any kind of stable, reliable way. >> inflation is going to prove more sticky. >> this is no longer something you can explain is the beginning of the year pop. >> there will be more elevated debt than we thought. >> we are seeing elevated signs the u.s. economy is slowing. >> inflation has come down pretty meaningfully. >> we have already landed from that very high level of growth and inflation. >> we still think we could be cutting rates modestly this year. >> now, let's look closer at that pce data we got. this is the fed's preferred gauge of inflation. the yellow line is the highest it has been in a year. core pce over the past three months at a 4.4% annual rate is actually higher than any time from november 1992 march 2021. according to harvard econ
>> i don't see why the fed would be rushing to cutting rates. >> a case for fed. easing is pretty small >> the market needs to see a couple of good prints on the data. >> we need to see a swift and compelling and convincing several prints of weaker inflation data. >> i'm convinced inflation is not returning to 2% in any kind of stable, reliable way. >> inflation is going to prove more sticky. >> this is no longer something you can explain is the...
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Apr 10, 2024
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because what you are doing is you have seen the fed -- fed funds rate. part of the reason inflation has remained persistent is because they have not used the balance sheet aggressively enough and the world's largest vendor has not seen any constraints on it. if they used the balance sheet more aggressively, there would have been less strain on main street and more on the big spenders. >> were saying they should have disciplined the government by not helping them? >> understanding where the excess aggregate demand is coming from. it's coming from high net worth individuals, affluent households, government spending. the way to rignet in --the way to rein that and is put pressure on borrowing costs. they carry their inventory with bank lines of credit. they have seen it go from 3% to 10%. pure bottom up cost pressure for these guys. if you look at large companies, they see their borrowing costs rise 200 basis points maybe. in some cases, negative. you are looking at negative borrowing costs on. so there has not been enough tightening. >> what is more import
because what you are doing is you have seen the fed -- fed funds rate. part of the reason inflation has remained persistent is because they have not used the balance sheet aggressively enough and the world's largest vendor has not seen any constraints on it. if they used the balance sheet more aggressively, there would have been less strain on main street and more on the big spenders. >> were saying they should have disciplined the government by not helping them? >> understanding...
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Apr 4, 2024
04/24
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expectations for the fed, geopolitical concerns, and much more. don't go anywhere, we are live at the new york stock exchange. you are watching closing bell on cnbc. municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free. now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least $10,000 to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-217-3217. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income are federally tax-free and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217. >>> we are assessing lows as we come back o
expectations for the fed, geopolitical concerns, and much more. don't go anywhere, we are live at the new york stock exchange. you are watching closing bell on cnbc. municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free. now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least $10,000 to...
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Apr 5, 2024
04/24
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that's not the role of the fed. the fed should be strategic and provide a strategic anchor and stabilizer. >>> u.s. secretary janet yellen calls out chinese overcapacity and averages the importance of keeping relations running with the world's second largest economy. >> president biden and i firmly reject the idea that the united states should decouple from china. a full economic separation is neither practical nor desirable as both the u.s. and china have affirmed. >>> president biden warns the israeli leader that america's continued support for the war with hamas depends on the treatment of civilians in gaza. secretary of state antony blinken says the u.s. is monitoring the situation closely. >> we welcome the steps announced by israel opening the new crossing point and having shipments go directly from the port and maximizing the route from jordan. these are positive developments, but the real test is results. >>> very interesting looking at the impact of the two, among many issues, with one of them that the u.n.
that's not the role of the fed. the fed should be strategic and provide a strategic anchor and stabilizer. >>> u.s. secretary janet yellen calls out chinese overcapacity and averages the importance of keeping relations running with the world's second largest economy. >> president biden and i firmly reject the idea that the united states should decouple from china. a full economic separation is neither practical nor desirable as both the u.s. and china have affirmed. >>>...
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Apr 5, 2024
04/24
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it's a very tough time for the fed. remember, alan greenspan raised rates during the bill clinton election. people don't remember this. this is 32 years ago. and george herbert walker bush accused him of playing politics. the fed has the matrix of keeping the markets calm, getting inflation down to the number they want and not being accused of playing politics. so, that's a very tough matrix to run the gamut through. i think they have no choice, they cut the rates. we're not talking about the debt but let's talk about it for a second. over $1 trillion in interest payments at these rate levels. jerome powell himself and others have said we have a huge debt crisis in the country and we have to get that under control as well. i think the fed will help congress buy some time with lower than expected interest rates. >> at least three. anthony scaramucci never holds back. >> good to be here. >>> coming up, going beyond the mega caps. that's how one top money manager is looking to play the next leg of a.i. trade. dan chung is
it's a very tough time for the fed. remember, alan greenspan raised rates during the bill clinton election. people don't remember this. this is 32 years ago. and george herbert walker bush accused him of playing politics. the fed has the matrix of keeping the markets calm, getting inflation down to the number they want and not being accused of playing politics. so, that's a very tough matrix to run the gamut through. i think they have no choice, they cut the rates. we're not talking about the...
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Apr 2, 2024
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we see oil prices fighting the fed once again. we'll see. it's been an interesting battle between opec and the fed. >> we just spoke at the beginning of the show, especially markets are reflecting some skepticism about that rate cut in june. i think it was the beginning of the show said that's about 50-50 right now. if we don't get a june rate cut, what does that mean for the price of oil? >> coming into the summer, it doesn't mean a whole lot, because we still expect it to be a bumper travel season. people will be driving and flying a lot. and supply is tight. coming into the end of next year, the end of the year into 2025, things start to loosen up a little bit. we have a fair amount of supply growth coming out of brazil, canada. we also should see maybe not as fast growth in the u.s., but we should see some growth in the u.s., and hopefully that comes to the rescue. there's some refining capacity coming online, particularly in nigeria and mexico. remember, there's been lots of issues in the past few months, including attacks on russian en
we see oil prices fighting the fed once again. we'll see. it's been an interesting battle between opec and the fed. >> we just spoke at the beginning of the show, especially markets are reflecting some skepticism about that rate cut in june. i think it was the beginning of the show said that's about 50-50 right now. if we don't get a june rate cut, what does that mean for the price of oil? >> coming into the summer, it doesn't mean a whole lot, because we still expect it to be a...
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Apr 30, 2024
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i can imagine that eci print was good news for the fed. >> not good news for the fed. a big drop in consumer confidence from a revised 103.1 down to a 97 for the headline number. the present situation is a big drop from 146.8 to 142.9. a drop in expectations to 66.4 from 74.0. of course, we have to check out the jobs, plentiful jobs hard to get situation because that is a good measure of what we might get on friday. more jobs ahead in six months. employment jobs, plentiful, 40.2. jobs hard to get, 14.9. people are getting to feel a little worse about the economy, not in recession territory yet, but combine it with the big rise in the eci today and the fed has some issues. katie: yeah, it is interesting, taking the consumer confidence falling at the same time you have wages or at least eci, a measure of that rising as well. wrap it all together in terms of what tone we might hear jerome powell take tomorrow. michael: jerome powell will probably try to say as little as possible. certainly will have to admit they do not have confidence now and ongoing fallen inflation eno
i can imagine that eci print was good news for the fed. >> not good news for the fed. a big drop in consumer confidence from a revised 103.1 down to a 97 for the headline number. the present situation is a big drop from 146.8 to 142.9. a drop in expectations to 66.4 from 74.0. of course, we have to check out the jobs, plentiful jobs hard to get situation because that is a good measure of what we might get on friday. more jobs ahead in six months. employment jobs, plentiful, 40.2. jobs...
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Apr 4, 2024
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i think the market is right that the fed is knocking to go as far as the fed is projecting. for two reasons. inflation stock in average higher than 2%. and our so-called neutral rate with monetary policy has risen given the large fiscal deficits with ai and estimate spending growth and host of other factors . they're are basically putting more pressure. >> often reflect a number of years ago. i'll sing your praises. you said in june of i think 21 that rates will go much higher than people think. talked about five and five sounded so far. five would be like me saying 10 year yields are going to 8%. people turned around and were like you are nuts. what did you see that early that led you to believe rates would need to be that high to get inflation down and how does that inform your view of where things will be longer-term. >> the federal reserve set themselves up deliberately in terms of tightening in this last cycle. they basically said we can raise rates until inflation is 2% and expect not to be 2% in the future. by definition they would be very late. if they are late it me
i think the market is right that the fed is knocking to go as far as the fed is projecting. for two reasons. inflation stock in average higher than 2%. and our so-called neutral rate with monetary policy has risen given the large fiscal deficits with ai and estimate spending growth and host of other factors . they're are basically putting more pressure. >> often reflect a number of years ago. i'll sing your praises. you said in june of i think 21 that rates will go much higher than people...
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Apr 8, 2024
04/24
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we are sticking to our fear that the fed will not -- feel that the fed will not cut interest rates this year. lisa: i keep saying what will be more important, the fed and the macro or earnings? there is bigger risk in bonds and there is less risk in stocks, especially if the earnings come in better than expected. that all flips on its head if we get this weakness. it shows there is no consensus whatsoever on wall street about how to read some of this data and what it means for the trajectory going forward? annmarie: it almost is a different economy in a sense. jay powell talked about this. it's a bigger economy, not a tighter one. how much is immigration playing into the jobs market and is that helping keep a lid on wage growth? everyone will be looking toward cpi. now that we have jobs out of the way, this is the next data point that could point to what the fed is going to do in june or july. jonathan: getting a flavor or a preview of what jamie dimon thinks about the world, devoting a large portion to ai, saying it may be the biggest issue the company deals with. these markets seem to
we are sticking to our fear that the fed will not -- feel that the fed will not cut interest rates this year. lisa: i keep saying what will be more important, the fed and the macro or earnings? there is bigger risk in bonds and there is less risk in stocks, especially if the earnings come in better than expected. that all flips on its head if we get this weakness. it shows there is no consensus whatsoever on wall street about how to read some of this data and what it means for the trajectory...
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Apr 10, 2024
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so that is the real problem for the fed is the higher energy prices, hard to see where they are going to come down any time given green energy policies, and geopolitical unrest all over the world. gold at pressure highs to lauren simonetti, markets down 160 on dow industrials number hit tape to you. lauren: for march hotter month-over-month came in .4% that is the increase when the expectation was for .3%, so that is a month-over-month number. for march the annual number agency expected look. even hotter than expected we did expect it to increase, 3.5%. that reflects higher energy cost expectation was 3.4%, came in at 3.5% for consumer prices, year-over-year, in february it was 3.2% there is inflation story at the core level when you take out energy this is when you take out food we had a decline of surprised decline down 0.4%, from february to march, and core that was hotter 3.8% on annual basis. maria: markets reacting, in a fast way the dow industrials you do now down 228 points nasdaq down 218 points, as you were reporting hotter than expected cpi joining the conversation iran sid
so that is the real problem for the fed is the higher energy prices, hard to see where they are going to come down any time given green energy policies, and geopolitical unrest all over the world. gold at pressure highs to lauren simonetti, markets down 160 on dow industrials number hit tape to you. lauren: for march hotter month-over-month came in .4% that is the increase when the expectation was for .3%, so that is a month-over-month number. for march the annual number agency expected look....
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Apr 30, 2024
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how the fed, and how the fed will work to promote an economy where everyone who wants a good job has the opportunity to find one. senator scott? >> thank you. chair powell, thank you for coming this morning. good morning. appreciate you being here. certainly three days, march 10th, it'll be the one year anniversary of the failure of the silicon valley bank. sab marked the third largest bank failure in u.s. history, and certainly the largest since the 2011 -- 2008 financial crisis. i said it many times before and i'll say it again today that there are three major components to stb failure. first, the bank was rife with mismanagement. second, there was a clear supervisory failure, and our regulators were certainly asleep at the wheel. and third, president biden's reckless spending caused record high inflation, which resulted in drastic interest rate hikes and tremendous loss. when you print and spend trillions of dollars at the end of covid, we should not be surprised that we have record high inflation. record high inflation translates into today, still, 40% higher for gas for your car
how the fed, and how the fed will work to promote an economy where everyone who wants a good job has the opportunity to find one. senator scott? >> thank you. chair powell, thank you for coming this morning. good morning. appreciate you being here. certainly three days, march 10th, it'll be the one year anniversary of the failure of the silicon valley bank. sab marked the third largest bank failure in u.s. history, and certainly the largest since the 2011 -- 2008 financial crisis. i said...
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Apr 4, 2024
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they will be waiting for the fed just like the rest of us and the fed will be waiting for u.s. inflation numbers. once those numbers moderate, policymakers and asia will be able to follow the fed and cutting rates, but not before then. haslinda: some say perhaps devaluation of the yuan is the way to go is a reflection of how weak the economy really is. what is the fair value for the yuan right now? >> the pboc is caught between a rock and a hard place. they don't want the currency to slide. it does look undervalued. fair value is difficult to work out. but i would say beyond seven, if the fed does cut rates, it takes the pressure off the dollar and the yuan will start to rally. haslinda: you are saying the yuan is undervalued? it has been supported by the pboc. >> the exchange rate is strong on that measure. that is what is keeping the yuan under pressure in the short-term. the yen just looks way too cheap, to be honest. we had intervention coinciding with the turn in u.s. bond markets. we are likely to get interested again but you need the fed to cut rates as well. we think it
they will be waiting for the fed just like the rest of us and the fed will be waiting for u.s. inflation numbers. once those numbers moderate, policymakers and asia will be able to follow the fed and cutting rates, but not before then. haslinda: some say perhaps devaluation of the yuan is the way to go is a reflection of how weak the economy really is. what is the fair value for the yuan right now? >> the pboc is caught between a rock and a hard place. they don't want the currency to...
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Apr 10, 2024
04/24
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this is not an acutely fed independent market. the market is showing you that there are other things going on. what i do think has changed to a degree with the inflation number is a month ago we were living in a world without trade- offs. there were no trade-offs between a good economy and what the fed was going to be able to do. easing into record highs stock market and a 3% gdp and it was going to be great because inflation is going to be taking care of it all. now you might need a new theory and you might need to revise your theory. the risk is, not in the here and now. not that the economy will buckle under 4.5% the risk is that the fed has to say we thought we could get lucky. we didn't think we could choke off girls in the service sector to get inflation to where it wants to be. maybe we were wrong about that. that'll take a while for them to come to that conclusion but it is a more complicated story and it does involve trade-offs in a market and i have been on pullback patrol since we were under 5100. so we are still above
this is not an acutely fed independent market. the market is showing you that there are other things going on. what i do think has changed to a degree with the inflation number is a month ago we were living in a world without trade- offs. there were no trade-offs between a good economy and what the fed was going to be able to do. easing into record highs stock market and a 3% gdp and it was going to be great because inflation is going to be taking care of it all. now you might need a new theory...
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Apr 5, 2024
04/24
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prompt the fed to cut. what level of unemployment would we need to see to trigger a may cut? it will have to be at least 4%, but i am not sure that would do would inmate. i think it will change -- take more than one data point to change the narrative. unless we have a severe change in the data, so at the moment we should be talking about being in line with kashkari. he does not vote and is a no knock, but i do not know why we would be cutting unless we see it in the data. we would need a few more did a prince to confirm it may cut. lizzy: do you think you would see a bigger repricing of that was a very strong print or weak print? >> that is a big question. i think we get the much bigger reaction in yields if it is a strong print again today. the market is refusing to turn away from the idea that we will get fed cuts this year, but there is no justification out there for it yet. we are thinking there might be some secret hidden crops -- cracks in the economy. if we get a weak number of people will stay with
prompt the fed to cut. what level of unemployment would we need to see to trigger a may cut? it will have to be at least 4%, but i am not sure that would do would inmate. i think it will change -- take more than one data point to change the narrative. unless we have a severe change in the data, so at the moment we should be talking about being in line with kashkari. he does not vote and is a no knock, but i do not know why we would be cutting unless we see it in the data. we would need a few...
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Apr 29, 2024
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this week, the fed and earnings as well. annabelle: constrained by the expectation of staying higher for longer. necessitating a cut, this is the outlook we've got for the korean stocks. a few minutes to show,
this week, the fed and earnings as well. annabelle: constrained by the expectation of staying higher for longer. necessitating a cut, this is the outlook we've got for the korean stocks. a few minutes to show,
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Apr 4, 2024
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when the fed gets to cutting it may not be cutting because we are in a recession or the fed fears we could move into one. it has the job done and it might be considering that it has 2% in sight, on the horizon, or that we have arrived at. i can't tell, but we have been big fans of the fed for years. i have been in the business for 40 years and i learned early on -- voelker was the head of the fed in his second term. i learned fast that if you don't get attuned to what the fed is doing -- and sin bernankec the fed has been so communicative. it has been helpful to say the least. lisa: the bears have been humiliated. there is the question of how do you get more bullish when everyone seems to be coming to your side? don't throw the babies out with the bathwater and if you see babies who have been thrown out, cuddle them and bring them back in. is there bathwater being thrown out? we aren't seeing pullbacks. john: the pullbacks are small. the other day, the dow was down. people were going like it was plunging. compared to what? it's ridiculous. the s&p is down 1/10 of 1% and people are bu
when the fed gets to cutting it may not be cutting because we are in a recession or the fed fears we could move into one. it has the job done and it might be considering that it has 2% in sight, on the horizon, or that we have arrived at. i can't tell, but we have been big fans of the fed for years. i have been in the business for 40 years and i learned early on -- voelker was the head of the fed in his second term. i learned fast that if you don't get attuned to what the fed is doing -- and...
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Apr 10, 2024
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so that fed put is there. maybe today the fed put is a little less powerful because they're going to be thinking, well, the inflation is a little sticky. but i think we've come a long way and we should celebrate the almost 600 basis points of disinflation that's occurred the last two years. hopefully that's not transitory. i don't think it is. i think it's more in the yellen camp but who knows. nobody knows. i don't want to base my views on that. i want to base my views on the fact that really where we sit today is a place the fed has accomplished a lot and has credibility. what the market is telling you today with the moves and fixed income and the equities aren't that bad, still 7% for the year. it's going to take more time but the fed's commitment to anchoring long run expectations has never been longer. >> i wonder if we're in this cycle where easier financial conditions are making it harder to fight inflation? if you look at housing for instance, we saw rates come down as the market got really excited abo
so that fed put is there. maybe today the fed put is a little less powerful because they're going to be thinking, well, the inflation is a little sticky. but i think we've come a long way and we should celebrate the almost 600 basis points of disinflation that's occurred the last two years. hopefully that's not transitory. i don't think it is. i think it's more in the yellen camp but who knows. nobody knows. i don't want to base my views on that. i want to base my views on the fact that really...
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Apr 9, 2024
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the fed knows 5% plus fed funds is in the wrong spot if inflation even is it 3% or below 3%. it is the only way it can punctuate a tightening cycle. >> that is what some say now, inflation is where it needs to be now where they have to cut. >> they have endorsed that in their outlook. i think they are trying to be either a little bit too demanding of the data or too cute of saying what is the risk of waiting, and it is true. the market is 1% off of its high. credit spreads are great. jobs are still growing. i think they want to get moving in that direction just so that the perceived risk of saying -- staying too tight too long is not as high. >> the market did move a bit. >> it did twitch higher. we are definitely in wait and see mode. we have been turning around a couple of weeks now and it makes sense that we do need to see this number, there are not that many more inflation numbers to come before june. it also underscores that if it is a genuinely cool number and there is no but look out for this other element of it that makes you more concerned about the market will have
the fed knows 5% plus fed funds is in the wrong spot if inflation even is it 3% or below 3%. it is the only way it can punctuate a tightening cycle. >> that is what some say now, inflation is where it needs to be now where they have to cut. >> they have endorsed that in their outlook. i think they are trying to be either a little bit too demanding of the data or too cute of saying what is the risk of waiting, and it is true. the market is 1% off of its high. credit spreads are...
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Apr 2, 2024
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lots of eco-data amongst fed speak. 19 including fed chair powell. we've had data reinforcing this narrative that inflation is falling more slowly than expected, hence why the fed will not be in a rash to cut rates. you saw stocks joining a loss continuing later, pointing to a lower opening but in europe tilted to upside. if we flip to crass -- cross assets he got the two-year treasury yields, 4.69% as traders pushback pricing to september. for a moment you solve the august dipping below 50% and all eyes turned toward the jobs report. the dollar is steady, brent trading below $80 a barrel. tighter supply from mexico and we will dig in later. gold hovering near record highs and trading at 2000 $257 per ounce. let's get to vonnie quinn with an update on how markets are faring. vonnie: fascinating session with crosscurrents coming together. first reaction to the pce data, hong kong closed yesterday, now reopened. huge catch up there, but activity around the yen. mark mobius saying anyone short on the yen, this is a losing battle for authorities. we are
lots of eco-data amongst fed speak. 19 including fed chair powell. we've had data reinforcing this narrative that inflation is falling more slowly than expected, hence why the fed will not be in a rash to cut rates. you saw stocks joining a loss continuing later, pointing to a lower opening but in europe tilted to upside. if we flip to crass -- cross assets he got the two-year treasury yields, 4.69% as traders pushback pricing to september. for a moment you solve the august dipping below 50%...
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Apr 9, 2024
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you are the chairman of the fed. i was the fed working with other agencies? >> there's a lot going on. my understanding on 956 is un there are discussions between the regulatory agents these, and i think it's more like six agencies that have to agree. i have not seen a proposal. i think something is under consideration, but it is not something that is gotten to me yet. >> i will ask the next time, and believe me, i will be here. thank you. >> the gentleman from kentucky. mr. barr is now recognized for five minutes. >> you have said numerous time that the capital framework is about right, and banks are well- capitalized. you still believe this? >> i do. >> and given that you believe that and given the fact that the proposal dramatically increases capital requirements on banks, would agree proposal that implemented a capital neutral way -- could it do so without jeopardizing financial stability? >> hypothetically, yeah. >> according to nathan watkins, 90% either opposed, called for every proposal, or expressed substantial confirms about the proposal. those nega
you are the chairman of the fed. i was the fed working with other agencies? >> there's a lot going on. my understanding on 956 is un there are discussions between the regulatory agents these, and i think it's more like six agencies that have to agree. i have not seen a proposal. i think something is under consideration, but it is not something that is gotten to me yet. >> i will ask the next time, and believe me, i will be here. thank you. >> the gentleman from kentucky. mr....
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Apr 9, 2024
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if you are fed cuts being priced this year. investors seem fewer than three cuts priced. 60 basis points have cut roughly for the rest of the year. that is about 2.5 cuts this year. you can see the comparison to the expectations for the ecb and now it is looking like there are possible fed cuts. that should have a packed -- an impact on the currency as well. could this change the game after that jobs data must mark it just looks like you have a shadow being cast. speaking of which, actually mid-day darkness fell across north america yesterday as a total solar eclipse raced across the continent, that is a spectacle through the clear skies. starting a long legs and because mostly clear pacific coast and any for texas and 14 other u.s. states before exiting into the north atlantic there in newfoundland. i must confess i was asleep but those images absolutely stunning. up next, markets today, stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told y
if you are fed cuts being priced this year. investors seem fewer than three cuts priced. 60 basis points have cut roughly for the rest of the year. that is about 2.5 cuts this year. you can see the comparison to the expectations for the ecb and now it is looking like there are possible fed cuts. that should have a packed -- an impact on the currency as well. could this change the game after that jobs data must mark it just looks like you have a shadow being cast. speaking of which, actually...
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Apr 2, 2024
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see a different kind of fed narrative evolve this year. there has been some rising angst but still some cuts are on the table. >> there is a little bit of froth and maybe it is deserved as you see powell shipped his narrative to things that allow him to cut. >> the important thing is that the fed and markets are n'sync after being out of sync. >> the fed has actually been a lot more optimistic about rate cuts over the last few years. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. jonathan: the third hour of surveillance begins right now. live from new york city this morning, good morning. for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." your equity market and little bit softer, the headlines are solidly elsewhere. can year yield vent new highs for 2024 and reflecting on the data yesterday, strong upside surprises for u.s. manufacturing. one question we've all got, doesn't derail the prospect of rate cuts any time soon from the federal reserve? andrew from citi taking the ot
see a different kind of fed narrative evolve this year. there has been some rising angst but still some cuts are on the table. >> there is a little bit of froth and maybe it is deserved as you see powell shipped his narrative to things that allow him to cut. >> the important thing is that the fed and markets are n'sync after being out of sync. >> the fed has actually been a lot more optimistic about rate cuts over the last few years. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance...
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Apr 30, 2024
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and the chicago fed president even referred to housing as a missing piece of the puzzle in the feds path to lower inflation. so to the continued conversation, and they do know a point you have made about how inflation has a disproportionate impact on lower income households who are focused on spending more of their monthly budgets on housing. how is the fed's monetary policy impacting the supply of affordable rentals? >> i don't know if we are affecting the supply of affordable housing if you think about it as something connected to a government program and that's not our valley wick and it affects the affordability of housing. >> there was a key point you made in your reference and in your response to senator smith for the monetary policy and the calculation of rent and can you briefly just talk about that and i do have one last issue i have before i run out of time. >> it is hard to talk about briefly and it's conceptually challenging to talk about housing inflation and you include the cost of financing and do you include the sale prices? the answer is we don't. we convert ownership in
and the chicago fed president even referred to housing as a missing piece of the puzzle in the feds path to lower inflation. so to the continued conversation, and they do know a point you have made about how inflation has a disproportionate impact on lower income households who are focused on spending more of their monthly budgets on housing. how is the fed's monetary policy impacting the supply of affordable rentals? >> i don't know if we are affecting the supply of affordable housing if...
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Apr 2, 2024
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fed narrative involved. still i think the cuts are on the table. >> there's a little bit of froth and maybe it's deserved as a sea power shift. two things that allow them to be cut. >> the important thing is the fed end markets are in sync after being out of sync. >> if you look at the market expectations, the fed is optimistic about this over the next few years. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. >> live from new york city and good morning. for audience worldwide this is bloomberg surveillance. en jonathan ferro, your equity market for the s&p 500 negative by 0.2% taking off q2 hitting a bump in the road when it comes to manufacturing. manufacturing data entering expansion for the first time since september of 2022. prices paid a little bit firmer. setting off right across the curve. lisa: the idea they came in at the hottest level since 2022. people are wondering is this a commodities led blip that is temporary or transitory or is this something dee
fed narrative involved. still i think the cuts are on the table. >> there's a little bit of froth and maybe it's deserved as a sea power shift. two things that allow them to be cut. >> the important thing is the fed end markets are in sync after being out of sync. >> if you look at the market expectations, the fed is optimistic about this over the next few years. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. >> live...
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Apr 10, 2024
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the fed is worried about inflation, the fed is worried about the economy. that's actually what the fed should be worried about. so the fact that rates are going to come down but it's going to take a while, like right now the economy's doing great. so the economy is growing, why should the fed lower rates in the fed doesn't want inflation to come back. i think powell's actually done a very good job. liz: you know, regional a banks are suffering a lot today -- >> yes, they are. liz: most of the financials, both big and regional, are down, in the red. but the regional as are taking an i don't want sized hit because they have the most exposure to commercial real estate loans in their vicinities and their towns. do you feoff fear that another one -- fear that another one could go belly up? is that the possibility? >> oh, i think it's not only a possibility, it's a probability. i think it will end up happening. the problem for regional banks is they were making their money on loaning on on the real estate side. so even if today that building is still fine, what y
the fed is worried about inflation, the fed is worried about the economy. that's actually what the fed should be worried about. so the fact that rates are going to come down but it's going to take a while, like right now the economy's doing great. so the economy is growing, why should the fed lower rates in the fed doesn't want inflation to come back. i think powell's actually done a very good job. liz: you know, regional a banks are suffering a lot today -- >> yes, they are. liz: most of...
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Apr 10, 2024
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just above the fed's 2% target. atlanta fed's bostic is not ruling out no cuts. let's bring in roger ferguson. you've got a long resume. hello from london. i'm going to jump in. what do you expect of the cpi report and the fed officials talking about possibly no cuts this year? >> look, i think i'm broadly in the consensus, but the main message from the cpi report is whatever it does, it's stilwell above the 2% target, and even if it comes down slightly, it's moving very slowly. so what do i make of the course of voices from the fed? i think they're seeing what we're seeing, which is they've always needed to be convinced that inflation's coming down. the last couple of reports cannot have increased their level of convention. so i think they're simply reporting what the facts tell them, which is they're not there, even though they had a forecast. the economy may not be unfolding as they expected and consequently they and the markets should be dialing back expectations of cuts going forward. >> yeah. it seems voices like raphael bostic are signaling the market that
just above the fed's 2% target. atlanta fed's bostic is not ruling out no cuts. let's bring in roger ferguson. you've got a long resume. hello from london. i'm going to jump in. what do you expect of the cpi report and the fed officials talking about possibly no cuts this year? >> look, i think i'm broadly in the consensus, but the main message from the cpi report is whatever it does, it's stilwell above the 2% target, and even if it comes down slightly, it's moving very slowly. so what...
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Apr 11, 2024
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the fed doesn't cut at all? >> where is that value? i think it had gotten legs on the cuts. on the idea, well, the economy will remain strong, and the fed is going to cut. so if i take cuts off the table, or at least i push them back, do i need to rethink the broadening trade itself? >> i think a couple of sectors will continue to do well. they're returning the capital to shareholders. i think the broadening trade could occur. we're remaining focused with our overweight position. >> your energy call has been spot on. josh, you've been talking about it a lot. materials, utilities, other areas, financials. you talked about it top of the show. we're going to get some real world view in earnings for some of the names. >> it's a good question. is the reason we've had a broadening out in the market, is it predicated on people sensing that the fed easing is coming closer and closer? perhaps in some areas you could say yes. certainly with smaller capitalization companies. but i want to build on something rich said, beca
the fed doesn't cut at all? >> where is that value? i think it had gotten legs on the cuts. on the idea, well, the economy will remain strong, and the fed is going to cut. so if i take cuts off the table, or at least i push them back, do i need to rethink the broadening trade itself? >> i think a couple of sectors will continue to do well. they're returning the capital to shareholders. i think the broadening trade could occur. we're remaining focused with our overweight position....
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Apr 23, 2024
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and by the way, on that note, coming up, we will ask former fed chair richard clara to when the fed will cut rates, if at all this year. this does take us how to best move in this market. let's ask our chief investment strategist with charles schwab. good to see you back again. we had this nice move over the last couple of days. do you believe in it? how you feeling about this market? >> the market got a little bit oversold especially in areas that had taken a drubbing and technology sector dropped to only 10% of stocks trading above a two day moving average. i do think that enticed some buyers, not to mention the earnings from some of the mega cap names this week, maybe elevating some interest on the buy side. i think it also didn't eliminate the froth, but ease some of the froth, which had been a concern. so, i think we probably revert back to the kind of leadership we were seeing before, but you are going to get these moves on a day-to-day basis or some of the lacquered get a bid. >> you are suggesting that mega cap is going to once again take the lead and stay there? this idea of rot
and by the way, on that note, coming up, we will ask former fed chair richard clara to when the fed will cut rates, if at all this year. this does take us how to best move in this market. let's ask our chief investment strategist with charles schwab. good to see you back again. we had this nice move over the last couple of days. do you believe in it? how you feeling about this market? >> the market got a little bit oversold especially in areas that had taken a drubbing and technology...
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Apr 4, 2024
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let's dig deeper into the fed story. we had share jay powell again signaling that the central bank was going to wait for clear signals of lower inflation before the fed cuts rates. take a listen. >> these recent data do not however materially change the overall picture. which continues to be one of solid growth, a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down towards 2% on a sometimes bumpy path. on inflation, it is too soon to say whether the recent readings are present more than just a bump. we do not expect it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2%. lizzy: for more, i'm joined by bloomberg's kriti gupta. jay powell's message seems pretty clear. why is the market making it so difficult? kriti: you are not the only one in charge. as you know, for the boe, it is very touch and go in terms of what the consensus is. this diversion within the fomc going from even the most average people like rafael bostic, reiterating
let's dig deeper into the fed story. we had share jay powell again signaling that the central bank was going to wait for clear signals of lower inflation before the fed cuts rates. take a listen. >> these recent data do not however materially change the overall picture. which continues to be one of solid growth, a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down towards 2% on a sometimes bumpy path. on inflation, it is too soon to say whether the recent readings are present...
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Apr 10, 2024
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i think the problem is the fed is so delayed. they want to see a really strong trend where they're looking at, like, 6-9 months. i don't see them hiking rates by the end of this year. i think that is a very real possibility in 2025. and i know that's not on the dot plots, i know that's not priced into the markets, but i think it's something people need to be prepared for because, again, history is telling us that there is going to be a second wave of inflation. charles: yeah. you know what? fed's going to have a real tricky job trying to articulate that. even if that hints their radar, telling us there's going to be three rate cuts to pivoting, but that's the been the biggest fear of this market for folks that have been around fortune a long time because it wasn't supposed to be this way. maybe they'll be arthur burns. great stuff. thank you very much, really appreciate it. >>> all right, folks, it was a really craitz i city day on the market i think this last hour's going to be even crazier. here's liz. liz: do you think the dow
i think the problem is the fed is so delayed. they want to see a really strong trend where they're looking at, like, 6-9 months. i don't see them hiking rates by the end of this year. i think that is a very real possibility in 2025. and i know that's not on the dot plots, i know that's not priced into the markets, but i think it's something people need to be prepared for because, again, history is telling us that there is going to be a second wave of inflation. charles: yeah. you know what?...
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Apr 29, 2024
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and this week is the big fed decision where traders will look for any sense of guidance from the fed on the direction of rate cuts. this is what bloomberg guests are saying. >> if things are slowing down enough, then yes. >> we are focused on other things. whether they cut in september or november or december is not important. we are willing to trade rate cuts for earnings growth. >> the market has already started taking rates off the table. >> janet yellen has a difficult time sticking with a hawkish tone. i would not be surprised if in the q&a, they turned a little dovish. >> base case, the inflation data will soften and there may ease some restoration of the confidence. he won't be able to communicate that. a fairly hawkish press conference. >> today's big take, one of the most read stories on the terminal, jerome powell's dovish december pipit saved the u.s. from recession. adding inflation back under control will require a more hawkish reversal. we reported on it. based on more than 60,000 fed headlines and natural language processing algorithms, you have learned a lot about how
and this week is the big fed decision where traders will look for any sense of guidance from the fed on the direction of rate cuts. this is what bloomberg guests are saying. >> if things are slowing down enough, then yes. >> we are focused on other things. whether they cut in september or november or december is not important. we are willing to trade rate cuts for earnings growth. >> the market has already started taking rates off the table. >> janet yellen has a...
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Apr 10, 2024
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why is the fed? the third question is how do you reconcile recommendation for standardization with statutory requirement for tailoring. standardization would seem to be in conflict or intention with regulatory tailoring. the fourth and final question, do you think could have the unintended consequence of reinforcing the trend towards shadow banking? which would mean less regulation, not more. is there a sense in which we are transferring risks on the regulated sector of the financial system to the deregulated sector. i have bartered you with questions and i will give you the time you enter them. >> i'm good have a hard time reading my handwriting. i will start with the guests of the fourth one. i will give you that one. we've seen intermediation activity moving out of the related system. this has the risk of doing more than that. >> you testified and repeat reassurances. i address this in my remarks of the open board meeting. higher capital is always going to add to. there is a cost. identifying the
why is the fed? the third question is how do you reconcile recommendation for standardization with statutory requirement for tailoring. standardization would seem to be in conflict or intention with regulatory tailoring. the fourth and final question, do you think could have the unintended consequence of reinforcing the trend towards shadow banking? which would mean less regulation, not more. is there a sense in which we are transferring risks on the regulated sector of the financial system to...
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Apr 5, 2024
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but see what i mean in terms of the fed swap. you do see september being much more likely then you see even in the summer. the first rate cut is factored in for september and the odd for a rate cut has fallen meaningfully. there was a time where we saw 5, 6 cuts being priced in. dallas fed president said it was too soon to begin cutting and kashkari said no cuts at all. >> if we see strong consumer spending that raises the question of my mind, why would we cut rates? sonali: joining us is and how husseini -- >> we really believe the path for cuts have been pushed out later to the fall. we take some reassurance from jay powell's comments. he stood behind the three cuts in the dot plot. that is something he reiterated. i believe in the footage that the labor market is becoming important. there are other factors they are considering and not just broader market liquidity. while some of these statistics look good there are others that would support the idea of because. sonali: what do you think about what it means in perspective of th
but see what i mean in terms of the fed swap. you do see september being much more likely then you see even in the summer. the first rate cut is factored in for september and the odd for a rate cut has fallen meaningfully. there was a time where we saw 5, 6 cuts being priced in. dallas fed president said it was too soon to begin cutting and kashkari said no cuts at all. >> if we see strong consumer spending that raises the question of my mind, why would we cut rates? sonali: joining us is...
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Apr 19, 2024
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geopolitics, earnings, economic data, the fed. we're setting up for another big week for the mafkts. it could cement or derail the fed's higher prolonged tilt. we're look at what to watch and why one guest still sees a cut this year and where to find value against this economic backdrop >>> netflix sharply lower despite a big subscriber beat, but they're not going to report it anymore investors punishing the stock because of that, but should they our analysis says they shouldn't. >>> airline earnings off to a strong start, but there is -- this is a word i love -- bifurcation in that trade. our top airline analyst is here and what that bifurcation is >>> now a quick check on the markets. traders have shaken off israel's count strike on iran the dow was up about 200 points, right now up 0.52% the nasdaq, the biggest laggard, netflix the biggest gradrag on t index.l and gas prices did spik but they have pulled back. weather texas crude up 1%. gold up 0.75%. bitcoin crossed above $65,000 earlier. below that now, but still up about 2%
geopolitics, earnings, economic data, the fed. we're setting up for another big week for the mafkts. it could cement or derail the fed's higher prolonged tilt. we're look at what to watch and why one guest still sees a cut this year and where to find value against this economic backdrop >>> netflix sharply lower despite a big subscriber beat, but they're not going to report it anymore investors punishing the stock because of that, but should they our analysis says they shouldn't....
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Apr 11, 2024
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yeah, listen, the ppi number was tamer than the cpi number but it took two fed officials, two major fed officials to come to the rescue. sort of like when mom used to make you chicken soup whenever you felt under the weather? the thing is this market was the federal reserve midmost be accommodative, they may not cut-rates as soon as we hoped they would. this is where we look for that, right? the bond market, the bond market is reacting to this fed change of heart if you will and it seems to be a whole lot worried than the market is. it is known as the canary in the coal mine. the question is when will the rest of the investing pool particularly stock investors start to worry and should they? we have man ward chief investment strategist shah gilani. you were bullish on the stock market for a while there. you told us to keep an eye on bond yields. what is the message now? >> first of all, charles, i am still bullish on the market and you know since we're in a bull market i'm looking to buy dips. as you mentioned we had nothing but nano dips. i think there may be a dip in our future becaus
yeah, listen, the ppi number was tamer than the cpi number but it took two fed officials, two major fed officials to come to the rescue. sort of like when mom used to make you chicken soup whenever you felt under the weather? the thing is this market was the federal reserve midmost be accommodative, they may not cut-rates as soon as we hoped they would. this is where we look for that, right? the bond market, the bond market is reacting to this fed change of heart if you will and it seems to be...
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Apr 17, 2024
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the fed did have a say in that. i would have to disagree that the fed pivot quote unquote is causing inflation to be sticking out. lisa: there is also the question of oil as we are heading into the busiest driving season as well as the busiest geopolitical cross current moment. how are you factoring gasoline prices at the highest levels going back to waterbury, the factory are seeing oil prices hovering above $90 a barrel. how are you gaming this out with respect to confidence but also corporate activity. dana: we have to raise our inflation forecast for the headline. this is a case of insufficient supply and emerging demand. we are heading into the peach driving season in the u.s.. in the meantime opec-plus has pulled back on production. in the u.s. we are having issues with shortages of energy and the strategic oil reserve, and if you think about the energy sector there's not much interested. fixing -- into fixing refineries. when you put these things together it suggests we are going to see higher gasoline prices
the fed did have a say in that. i would have to disagree that the fed pivot quote unquote is causing inflation to be sticking out. lisa: there is also the question of oil as we are heading into the busiest driving season as well as the busiest geopolitical cross current moment. how are you factoring gasoline prices at the highest levels going back to waterbury, the factory are seeing oil prices hovering above $90 a barrel. how are you gaming this out with respect to confidence but also...
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Apr 10, 2024
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atlanta fed gdp updated today. it's a condition today you sit back. >> bryn is not just sitting back and doing nothing. you sold a stock, and it's abbvie. tell us why you sold it. you've owned this for a while? >> close to two years. >> why is now the time to sell that? >> in november i think it got to 132, 133. it was at 180. this year has been a wonderful year for abbvie. close to $20 billion. it went to 180. i sold at 178. i felt it had a really good run, and i'm glad i did. earnings estimates are down 5.6% year over year. i do want to see how they absorb. i went on and put the proceeds into others that are more diversified instead of an individual name. >> all right. so we have a move there. i thought we had a good debate on where we stand today relative to cpi stocks, rates and everything else. up next, more committee stocks on the move today. we'll get the trades on roblox and taiwan semi. we're back in two. >> announcer: are you following "the halftime report" podcast? what are you waiting for? look for us i
atlanta fed gdp updated today. it's a condition today you sit back. >> bryn is not just sitting back and doing nothing. you sold a stock, and it's abbvie. tell us why you sold it. you've owned this for a while? >> close to two years. >> why is now the time to sell that? >> in november i think it got to 132, 133. it was at 180. this year has been a wonderful year for abbvie. close to $20 billion. it went to 180. i sold at 178. i felt it had a really good run, and i'm glad...
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Apr 26, 2024
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and a fed decision on wednesday. from new york, this was "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ the future is not just going to happen. you have to make it. and if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future where you grew a dream into a reality. the all new godaddy airo. put your business online in minutes with the power of ai. i don't want you to move. put your business online in minutes i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right? oh, we know. we just like making a scene. transferring your services has never been easier. get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. can i sleep over at your new place? can katie sleep over tonight? sure, honey! this generation is so dramatic! move with xfinity. manus: from new york city, very good morning. i'm manus cranny. these markets, it is a relief. the pce could be worse and our faith is restored in the big tech equity story. go on, alphabet. we count you down to the open, righ
and a fed decision on wednesday. from new york, this was "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ the future is not just going to happen. you have to make it. and if you want a successful business, all it takes is an idea, and now becomes the future where you grew a dream into a reality. the all new godaddy airo. put your business online in minutes with the power of ai. i don't want you to move. put your business online in minutes i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet...
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Apr 3, 2024
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markets less dovish than the fed. they will talk about that on markets today next, so stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪ (aidyl) hi, i'm aidyl, and i lost 90 pounds on golo. i struggled with weight loss and weight gain my entire life. with all the yo-yo dieting i did in the past, i would lose 20, 30, 50 pounds just to gain them over and over again. in one year, i've lost five sizes, and i'm on my way to lose another three. with golo, i can do it. (announcer) change your life at golo.com. that's golo.com. ♪ guy: good morning, i'm guy johnson. taiwan
markets less dovish than the fed. they will talk about that on markets today next, so stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪ (aidyl) hi, i'm aidyl, and i lost 90 pounds on golo. i struggled with weight loss and weight gain my entire life. with all the yo-yo dieting i did in the past, i would lose 20, 30, 50 pounds just to gain them over and over again. in one year, i've lost five sizes, and i'm on my way to lose another three. with golo, i can do it. (announcer) change your life at golo.com....
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Apr 15, 2024
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we're not sure what the fed's reaction function is, if the fed remains data dependent, the fed will be more hawkish. if however the fed looks forward and embraces a framework and model it will deliver on the two cuts this year, so the marketplace is having to price in this reality that inflation is sticky. >> i'm unclear where you are. >> i'm hoping that the fed will be less deda that dependent and look forward that the economy is weakening and they'll implement two cuts. >> if the fed does two cuts and the inflation has been stickier, wouldn't that be kind of -- wouldn't people blame the fed for acting too prematurely. >> my macro model, we're leaving in insufficient supply side. very different from the world we lived in after the financial crisis. slight high inflation target. the fed can't declare a high inflation target because it memess -- missed by so long and by so much we'll settle at an inflation at around 3% and i suspect it's stable, i suspect -- the other bit of your thing, inflation can comes roaring back like the '70s doesn't happen. >> first of all, pc inflation is under
we're not sure what the fed's reaction function is, if the fed remains data dependent, the fed will be more hawkish. if however the fed looks forward and embraces a framework and model it will deliver on the two cuts this year, so the marketplace is having to price in this reality that inflation is sticky. >> i'm unclear where you are. >> i'm hoping that the fed will be less deda that dependent and look forward that the economy is weakening and they'll implement two cuts. >>...
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Apr 10, 2024
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will the fed work to fix this? >> let me start by saying i want to echo the fact that our commodity markets in our capital markets are a huge national asset and have been functioning well and with as little friction as possible. i understand now that what you are referring to is things we did for increasing capital requirements for derivative activities. that's an area where we are aware of the can turn and are taking a very close look at. >> i appreciate that. i was a member of the don bree conference committee where there was bipartisan support to not disadvantage end-users -- farmers, ranchers, small businesses. this had broad bipartisan support than and still does today. unfortunately, the fed would undermine this long-standing work done by congress. i like to enter letters into the record, mr. chairman, that discuss the detrimental impact from the joint farm bureau federation, the national cattlemen's association, among seven others. next, the joint energy trade association for the american gas association and
will the fed work to fix this? >> let me start by saying i want to echo the fact that our commodity markets in our capital markets are a huge national asset and have been functioning well and with as little friction as possible. i understand now that what you are referring to is things we did for increasing capital requirements for derivative activities. that's an area where we are aware of the can turn and are taking a very close look at. >> i appreciate that. i was a member of the...
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Apr 26, 2024
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wednesday's the fed meeting. they're not going to do anything the announcement of the fed, what the fed does is going to be a non-event. it's going to be about the press conference and whether or not powell says anything about being more hawkish, and don't forget friday is payrolls, payrolls for 250,000 is what the guess is down from 303,000. in the last dcouple of month ths payrolls have been beating again. it stokes the idea of a strong economy and stickier inflation. >> great to speak with you, thank you. >> thank you >> jim bianco of bianco research we've heard some language from fed speakers in the past week or so that a fed hike is not the base case scenario, but that is something the fed is ready to do should the data warrant it if chairman powell says something to that effect, how do you think stocks would react >> well, i think stocks would react poorly i'm not sure he needs to do that no matter what he's seeing because as jim pointed out, we kind of have a sense, and we even got this in the pce, the fed
wednesday's the fed meeting. they're not going to do anything the announcement of the fed, what the fed does is going to be a non-event. it's going to be about the press conference and whether or not powell says anything about being more hawkish, and don't forget friday is payrolls, payrolls for 250,000 is what the guess is down from 303,000. in the last dcouple of month ths payrolls have been beating again. it stokes the idea of a strong economy and stickier inflation. >> great to speak...
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Apr 10, 2024
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i think the fed's handcuffed. therefore, that ten-year note up here, there's going to be a lag effect. we're seeing 30-year mortgages move higher. we can't see yields move higher with no effect on equities. >> i know you're looking at the vix. does that show complacency or resilience? do you think there's more pain ahead? >> yes. i've been cautiously optimistic. i think we have to get through this pocket of volatility, but the vix at 16, that's historically low. if we go back to where the vix has been, we haven't seen it above 25 in a year. we have to go back to october of '22 when we saw markets in turmoil to see the vix above 30. so there is a spike in volatility and i think it will be bought. right now, you have to buckle up your chin strap. >> jeff, thank you. >>> coming up, google might have taken a few stumbles out of the ai gate, but after his keynote yesterday, one exec called out microsoft and amazon while touting google's proprietary offering. we'll hear more with my interview next. and before we head to
i think the fed's handcuffed. therefore, that ten-year note up here, there's going to be a lag effect. we're seeing 30-year mortgages move higher. we can't see yields move higher with no effect on equities. >> i know you're looking at the vix. does that show complacency or resilience? do you think there's more pain ahead? >> yes. i've been cautiously optimistic. i think we have to get through this pocket of volatility, but the vix at 16, that's historically low. if we go back to...
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Apr 19, 2024
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art and i just talked about that, but didn't the fed misread innation and the market follow the fed? -- inflation9 and the market followed the fed? >> it's a great question. certainly, at the beginning of the year we were pricing in seven rate cuts and then the start of this week we were at two and now with powell's commentary on tuesday, we're picing in one rate cut. -- pricing in one rate cut. charles, we've talked about it before, the fed doesn't know exactly what the fed's going to do, and it continues to be data-dependent. i think your comment on the market moving based on the 10-year treasury, what we saw happen last wednesday and then again on monday was really the rapid rise in the 10-year. that really caused the market to sell off. and if you look at the vix, similar to the fear gauge you showed earlier, overnight the vix was at 21, market open we're at 19. we've been flirting with that 20 level, and the last time we saw the vix at 20 the was in october of 2023. s&p contracted 10%. so we're 5% off the march month if end high, and i suspect that we're feel in the midst of a p
art and i just talked about that, but didn't the fed misread innation and the market follow the fed? -- inflation9 and the market followed the fed? >> it's a great question. certainly, at the beginning of the year we were pricing in seven rate cuts and then the start of this week we were at two and now with powell's commentary on tuesday, we're picing in one rate cut. -- pricing in one rate cut. charles, we've talked about it before, the fed doesn't know exactly what the fed's going to...