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Aug 23, 2024
08/24
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the fomc's primary focus has been on bringing down inflation and appropriately so. prior to this episode, most americans are today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a sustained period. inflation brought substantial hardship, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. high inflation triggered stress and a sense of unfairness that lingers today. our restrictive monetary policy helped restore balance between aggregate supply and demand, easing inflationary pressures, and ensuring that inflation expectations remained well anchored. inflation is now much closer to our objective with prices having risen 2.5% over the past 12 months. after a pause earlier this year, progress toward our 2% objective has resumed. confidence has grown. -- grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%. in the years just prior to the pandemic, we saw significant benefits to society that can come from a long period of strong labor market conditions. low unemployment, high participation, historically l
the fomc's primary focus has been on bringing down inflation and appropriately so. prior to this episode, most americans are today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a sustained period. inflation brought substantial hardship, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. high inflation triggered stress and a sense of unfairness that lingers today. our restrictive monetary policy helped restore balance between...
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Aug 25, 2024
08/24
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the fomc's primary task has been bring down inflation and appropriately so. prior to this episode, most americans alive today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a stew team -- a sustained period. it affected those not able to afford the daily essentials. the restrictive monetary policy helped restore policy between demand and supply and ensure expectations remain well anchored. inflation is now much closer to our objective, the price having risen 2.5% over the past 12 months. after a pause earlier this year, progress toward our 2% objective has resumed. my confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%. in employment, in the years prior to the pandemic, with all the significant benefits to society that can come from a long period of strong labor market conditions, low unemployment, high participation , historically low racial employment gaps and with inflation low and stable, wage gains that were increasingly concentrated in those with lower incomes. today, the labor market has cooled considerably from the former overh
the fomc's primary task has been bring down inflation and appropriately so. prior to this episode, most americans alive today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a stew team -- a sustained period. it affected those not able to afford the daily essentials. the restrictive monetary policy helped restore policy between demand and supply and ensure expectations remain well anchored. inflation is now much closer to our objective, the price having risen 2.5% over the past 12 months....
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Aug 21, 2024
08/24
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meanwhile the fomc minutes are coming out right now. we'll go live to jackson hole with detailed analysis with edward lawrence in a few moments. what he has to say on friday has to dovetail with this. here is what wall street is expecting, anticipating over to july of next year, 200 basis point in cuts. if he can't artic hate something like this, maybe, this maybe this rally goes off the rails. like everything else market related my first guest watches the pulse of these things more than anybody else. we have bespoke co-founder, paul hickey. welcome to the show. jay powell at the bat. the fed speak monitor, what is this telling us? >> we go into every speech by a fed official rate it by its dovishness and hawkishness. in 2022 we got the most hawkish reads in multiyears. charles: right here. >> when it's high, it means fed officials are being hawkish but we've seen recently coming into jackson hole this week is we've seen real pickup in dovish speak, you know, implying laying the ground work. charles: some of this is flip-flops. some are
meanwhile the fomc minutes are coming out right now. we'll go live to jackson hole with detailed analysis with edward lawrence in a few moments. what he has to say on friday has to dovetail with this. here is what wall street is expecting, anticipating over to july of next year, 200 basis point in cuts. if he can't artic hate something like this, maybe, this maybe this rally goes off the rails. like everything else market related my first guest watches the pulse of these things more than...
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Aug 30, 2024
08/24
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. >> 25 basis points as it is what we see from the fomc meeting in september. i think we only get one more this year probably in december and the market may have to reprice. >> rates might nudge north of 4% on the 10 year. >> the unemployment rate is much higher in the last report. we have to watch these things closely, particularly, the labor market. >> you saw long-term numbers on u.s. pce. coming closer to the ever elusive 2%. looking at the short-term headline number on a three month annualized basis, a metric that economists say paints a more accurate picture of the trajectory of inflation you see a bigger slowdown. you can see how much progress has been made since 2021 and 2020. let's flip the board to see how the bond market has reacted to the data over the last two weeks. we have lost more than 10 basis points in the two year yield. short-term rates fueling a change in sentiment. you have to wonder if it comes from inflation data or growth figures we have gotten in between. a lot of people in the markets are concerned about what the job market will look
. >> 25 basis points as it is what we see from the fomc meeting in september. i think we only get one more this year probably in december and the market may have to reprice. >> rates might nudge north of 4% on the 10 year. >> the unemployment rate is much higher in the last report. we have to watch these things closely, particularly, the labor market. >> you saw long-term numbers on u.s. pce. coming closer to the ever elusive 2%. looking at the short-term headline number...
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Aug 2, 2024
08/24
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but fomc -- the fomc acts in a consensus manner. we have deliberation and debate and we vote on things. i hope and i tried to bring the through line mentality of do not take one month's number, look at what the trends are. and to me they show inflation coming down across the board multiple months in a row and the labor market cooling. what we want is for the labor market to get into good mallet -- good balance, the full employment natural rate. if we are not stopping at that and we are not neutral that we will have to think about the employment side. sonali: it is not just about the next cut but the path forward for the people who think you might get multiple half-point rate cuts. through september, november and december, what do you tell them in terms of what to expect for the entirety of the path going into next year? austan: you know i do not like tying our hands even for the next meeting so i certainly do not want to commit ourselves to what will be the rate path meeting five or seven meetings from now. with all of that said, lo
but fomc -- the fomc acts in a consensus manner. we have deliberation and debate and we vote on things. i hope and i tried to bring the through line mentality of do not take one month's number, look at what the trends are. and to me they show inflation coming down across the board multiple months in a row and the labor market cooling. what we want is for the labor market to get into good mallet -- good balance, the full employment natural rate. if we are not stopping at that and we are not...
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Aug 15, 2024
08/24
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we are getting fomc members turning dovish. at raphael bostic saying he is open to the cut. goolsby saying his focus is on the labor market. what do you make of this? mark: yesterday we were talking about traders thinking this was a shakespearean play, but today it is a beatles song, the long and winding road of rate cuts. it is probably 200 basis points worth of rate cuts priced into next year. traders are convinced once of the fed starts at there will be no stopping, rates are coming down and down. what the fed people are doing here is they are making sure there will be no margin for error. they are telling the traders you are right, so do not panic. that is partly why you have had a relatively small response so far to the cpi data, considering how important it is, but there were more pieces of data to come before the fed meat. -- mmeet. we are getting toward september. as you mentioned there is still a possibility that 50 basis points, the fed do not want to get bart -- boxed into a situation like the rmb z. that would much sooner tea everything up. we do have another job
we are getting fomc members turning dovish. at raphael bostic saying he is open to the cut. goolsby saying his focus is on the labor market. what do you make of this? mark: yesterday we were talking about traders thinking this was a shakespearean play, but today it is a beatles song, the long and winding road of rate cuts. it is probably 200 basis points worth of rate cuts priced into next year. traders are convinced once of the fed starts at there will be no stopping, rates are coming down and...
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Aug 1, 2024
08/24
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chair powell: it's not something that comes up at all with the in the fomc.broadly, digital finances is an area that has really significant implications for payments generally. instant payments. it's something that's going to really change the way it's going to make more efficient and hopefully safer and all those things, the way payments are made around the world. and so we have people who are researching that, because we play an important role in the payments sector, both as a convenor and as an operator too. in terms of the cbdc, there's really nothing new going on. there's not much going on at all. we don't have the authority to issue a retail cbdc that's available to the public. we're not seeking that authority. so what we are doing is keeping up with developments there. pretty much every major central bank in the world is at least doing that. some of them are looking at implementing a cbdc. we are not, we are really just evaluating the story and what's happening out there. i think it's work we need to be doing, which could be very beneficial down the ro
chair powell: it's not something that comes up at all with the in the fomc.broadly, digital finances is an area that has really significant implications for payments generally. instant payments. it's something that's going to really change the way it's going to make more efficient and hopefully safer and all those things, the way payments are made around the world. and so we have people who are researching that, because we play an important role in the payments sector, both as a convenor and as...
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Aug 19, 2024
08/24
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i thinkjerome powell will take a big picture approach because he will not front run the rest of the fomcsignalling whether a 25 or 50 basis point change is coming in september. also we will get data on august employment and that will make or break the decision, whether they cut by 25 or 50. one thing is clear is that it is nearly as slamdunk that the fed will be cutting interest rates in september. investors in china will no longer have a key indicator to measure sentiment in its $8.3 trillion stock market. starting from monday, the country's stock exchanges will stop releasing daily data on overseas fund flows. analysts say this is an effort by the government to prop up the market, which has seen a record withdrawal of foreign funds in recent months. byd is one of the earliest entries in pakistan's electric vehicles market which has been slow to take off because of a lack of charging infrastructure. sellthrough mega motors. the foxconn has been visiting india. he defended accusations that his company did not give jobs to married women at its iphone assembly unit in the country. this sto
i thinkjerome powell will take a big picture approach because he will not front run the rest of the fomcsignalling whether a 25 or 50 basis point change is coming in september. also we will get data on august employment and that will make or break the decision, whether they cut by 25 or 50. one thing is clear is that it is nearly as slamdunk that the fed will be cutting interest rates in september. investors in china will no longer have a key indicator to measure sentiment in its $8.3 trillion...
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Aug 23, 2024
08/24
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it's clear the economy is slowing but lots of folks on the fomc are still waiting for more data.we're going to breakdown what that actually means and we'll use one of the hottest movies in the last year to make point. we'll also talk to the fed guy, next. crash into me ♪ (woman 1 vo) i have inherited the best traditions. (woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts. t—mobile's 5g network connects a hundred thousand delta employees so they can make every customer feel like they've arrived before they've left the ground. this is how business goes further with t—mobile for business. ok y'all we got ten orders coming in.. big orders! starting a business is never easy, but starting it eight months pregnant.. that's a different story. i couldn't slow down. we were starting a business from the ground up. people were showing up left and right. and so did our bus
it's clear the economy is slowing but lots of folks on the fomc are still waiting for more data.we're going to breakdown what that actually means and we'll use one of the hottest movies in the last year to make point. we'll also talk to the fed guy, next. crash into me ♪ (woman 1 vo) i have inherited the best traditions. (woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share....
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Aug 26, 2024
08/24
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as we highlighted in our last fomc statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dualte. the time has come for policy to adjust. the direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. us stock markets edged higher on friday on powell's remarks. investors widely expect a rate cut in september, and some believe the fed will keep cutting rates through the end of the year and into 2025. pushan dutt, professor of economics and political science at insead, gave us his thoughts on the road ahead. when inflation was growing up, the fed was behind the curve. they thought it was temporary and waited a long time to raise interest rates, so i think they learnt the lesson. what happened with the data, is that some rates of crept up and that looking historically, once an implement starts rising, it rises subsequently for many quarters, so they are trying to get ahead of the curve, jump out, germ pole will set it depends on the data, which is very mixed, just a few days back, if you weeks ba
as we highlighted in our last fomc statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dualte. the time has come for policy to adjust. the direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. us stock markets edged higher on friday on powell's remarks. investors widely expect a rate cut in september, and some believe the fed will keep cutting rates through the end of the year and into 2025....
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there is no doubt the investing world changed a lot since that fomc meeting.inflation volatility, etf inflation hedge portfolio manager, nancy davis with us. nancy i started the show talking about the vix hitting 65 intraday yesterday. the market going haywire. the at that point yesterday you saw the way the market was going, what was entering your mind concerning the spikes and volatility? >> i feel everyone ask focused on the wrong thing. most investors have interest rate volatility, fixed income in their bond portfolios because of all the indexing out there, 25% of core fixed income known as the bloomberg ag index is mortgages. that homeowners are on the option to pre-pay. there is embedded short fixed income volatility in all these bond portfolios. vix is one types of options market. anytime there is a options market there is a vol market and there are lots of different volatility markets. the thing most people own, most people in their retirement accounts and pension funds is short optionality because of mortgages. charles: i never knew that. i just learn
there is no doubt the investing world changed a lot since that fomc meeting.inflation volatility, etf inflation hedge portfolio manager, nancy davis with us. nancy i started the show talking about the vix hitting 65 intraday yesterday. the market going haywire. the at that point yesterday you saw the way the market was going, what was entering your mind concerning the spikes and volatility? >> i feel everyone ask focused on the wrong thing. most investors have interest rate volatility,...
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Aug 18, 2024
08/24
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big picture - will take a big picture approach because he's not going to front run the rest of the fomcalling whether a rate cut is coming. shortly after his speech, that will make or break the decision. one thing that is clear that it's nearly a slam dunk that the fed is going to be cutting interest rates in december. investors in china will no longer have a key indicator to measure sentiment in its £8.3 trillion stock market. starting from monday, the country's stock exchanges will stop releasing daily data on overseas fund flows. analysts say this is an effort by the government to prop up the market, which has seen a record withdrawal of foreign funds in recent months. (pres + aston)we start this morning with thailand during an opening ceremony during thy hostile complement. he added that married women greatly contribute to he added that married women greatly contribut- greatly contribute to the efforts of _ greatly contribute to the efforts of doing - greatly contribute to the efforts of doing it. - greatly contribute to the efforts of doing it. he i greatly contribute to the i effo
big picture - will take a big picture approach because he's not going to front run the rest of the fomcalling whether a rate cut is coming. shortly after his speech, that will make or break the decision. one thing that is clear that it's nearly a slam dunk that the fed is going to be cutting interest rates in december. investors in china will no longer have a key indicator to measure sentiment in its £8.3 trillion stock market. starting from monday, the country's stock exchanges will stop...
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Aug 14, 2024
08/24
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and interestingly i'm thinking that perhaps when the fed chair was sounding more dovish at the last fomcreaked out people because they were thinking what does he know that we don't? this is waiting for, for him to sound more confident that he will cut rates. always a bit surprised that markets had that bit of overreaction. it has been markets as well in the summertime, anything could happen to cause markets to flare up or down again. scarlet: jennifer lee, thank you so much. "bloomberg markets"bloomberg markets coming up on," shares of ubs are up on the latest earnings report. the ceo told bloomberg that they are gaining market share in the u.s. we have highlights from that conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪ olukai sandals capture the feeling of stepping barefoot into wet sand. the perfect balance of instant comfort and lasting support. say aloha to olukai. anywhere comfort. anywhere aloha. (♪♪) i was the last athlete out on the floor and i still had a full round to go, and everything in me was saying, “just stop.” i kept plugging through until i got time capped. because i didn't quit an
and interestingly i'm thinking that perhaps when the fed chair was sounding more dovish at the last fomcreaked out people because they were thinking what does he know that we don't? this is waiting for, for him to sound more confident that he will cut rates. always a bit surprised that markets had that bit of overreaction. it has been markets as well in the summertime, anything could happen to cause markets to flare up or down again. scarlet: jennifer lee, thank you so much. "bloomberg...
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Aug 21, 2024
08/24
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we will get an insight today with the release of the fomc minutes for july. mliv strategist mark cranfield will be watching at all. >> it is not surprising that they have these enormous positions in the bond market. when you consider there is so much going on in the treasury curve. it is not just that traders expect interest rates soon and multiple once they start going but you have all these maneuvers going on. at one stage, we had a very inverted treasury curve up to 100 basis points, and that coincided with a lot of positions put on between two years and five years pass the curve. it has cooled down a bit but we still have inversion. we have this shape where two is higher than five and 10 years, yet 30 years is higher than all of them, so these strange kinks in the curve mean more traders can play of the curve and the other without taking. directional positions on the market. that is where you get inflatedly large positions as people not only expect lower interest rates but also big movements within different sectors of the curve, and the treasury market i
we will get an insight today with the release of the fomc minutes for july. mliv strategist mark cranfield will be watching at all. >> it is not surprising that they have these enormous positions in the bond market. when you consider there is so much going on in the treasury curve. it is not just that traders expect interest rates soon and multiple once they start going but you have all these maneuvers going on. at one stage, we had a very inverted treasury curve up to 100 basis points,...
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Aug 22, 2024
08/24
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if you look in terms of the fomc minutes, the tone of the minutes was more dovish than what the chairman was talking about. from that point of view, i think he will have sufficient road to be able to nudge the market in the right path. i think one looks to be most likely in september coming up. paul: yes, and to september, how big is the cut going to get? we have markets pricing in 100 basis points in cuts, which suggests one of the three remaining this year might be supersized, but it's a good time for the question of the day to you -- which assets will be most at risk if the fed rate cut is on the small side? >> from the silverdale point of view, we are rightly positioned, i would say, because we are at the lower end of the curve. even producers with a portfolio of larger rate cuts, they will be under position. the other thing to keep in mind is in terms of the equity market, which was expecting the fed to assist companies with faster rate cuts, they are estimating those will come too soon. paul: we have had the bank of korea, indonesia, thailand all on hold. looks like the reserve ban
if you look in terms of the fomc minutes, the tone of the minutes was more dovish than what the chairman was talking about. from that point of view, i think he will have sufficient road to be able to nudge the market in the right path. i think one looks to be most likely in september coming up. paul: yes, and to september, how big is the cut going to get? we have markets pricing in 100 basis points in cuts, which suggests one of the three remaining this year might be supersized, but it's a good...
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Aug 16, 2024
08/24
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wednesday, we will get the fomc minutes and target earnings. before the acceptance from kamala harris at the democratic national convention. we will get existing home sales. jackson hole. we will be able to bring you all of those and more. this has been "real yield" on bloomberg. ♪ ading strategists like us. when you want to invest with more confidence... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management with so much entertainment out there wouldn't it be great... ...if you could find what you want, all in one place? show me paris. xfinity internet customers can enjoy the ultimate entertainment experience and save on some of the biggest names in streaming, all for just $15 a month. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. clogged gutters can cause big problems fast. until now. call 833-leaffilter today for your free gutter inspection. i've had terrible flooding problems on my porch. now i understand why. right now leaffilter is offering a free inspection, on your schedule. leaffilter is a permanent gutter solution, so you never have to worry
wednesday, we will get the fomc minutes and target earnings. before the acceptance from kamala harris at the democratic national convention. we will get existing home sales. jackson hole. we will be able to bring you all of those and more. this has been "real yield" on bloomberg. ♪ ading strategists like us. when you want to invest with more confidence... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management with so much entertainment out there wouldn't it be great... ...if you could find...
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Aug 23, 2024
08/24
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CNBC
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it is going to be important because since we had the powell press conference after the fomc in july,hat does powell think of the various events which have happened? back in july, powell characterized the economy as solid. he was more optimistic and confident that inflation is heading towards its 2% objective, but, of course, we've had a space of extreme market volatility and, of course, a relatively soft parallel number of 14,000 which was released at the start of the month. what are his views on that? how much will he reveal? we don't know. our guess is he's going to say, look, we already said that the jobs market was cooling and the july number was really consistent with that, and inflation numbers we've seen we think are consistent with both the core pce numbers and core cpi numbers heading towards 2% over the medium term. whether he will inject a more negative note, we'll wait and see. >> so we're looking to see the tone of the speech that he makes later tonight, but when it comes to exactly what sort of move we might see in september, goldman sachs says a 25-point basis cut woul
it is going to be important because since we had the powell press conference after the fomc in july,hat does powell think of the various events which have happened? back in july, powell characterized the economy as solid. he was more optimistic and confident that inflation is heading towards its 2% objective, but, of course, we've had a space of extreme market volatility and, of course, a relatively soft parallel number of 14,000 which was released at the start of the month. what are his views...
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Aug 26, 2024
08/24
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maybe fomc members are seeing some other signals here.ata i cover on the show a lot. regional fed numbers. pmi numbers. philadelphia fed, empire state, for the most part this is really up a little. look how much these are down. absolutely tremendous. that is on the manufacturing side. look at the service side. it is even worse. this is supposed to be the strong part of our economy! let me bring in wellington private wealth chief market strategist jim thorne. jim, you're on record saying the fed should have been aggressively cutting a long time ago. what do you think now that powell sees the light? >> yeah, i think the other thing that he said in the jackson hole speech was the labor market was looser than 2019 where he cut fed funds rates below 2%. so, charles, i think investors have to get ready to get to our star, the neutral rate, somewhere between 2 1/2, 3% fast. i think they understand they have stayed their welcome way too long. the private sector is buckling. we have significant recessionary variables. flashing red, and the only th
maybe fomc members are seeing some other signals here.ata i cover on the show a lot. regional fed numbers. pmi numbers. philadelphia fed, empire state, for the most part this is really up a little. look how much these are down. absolutely tremendous. that is on the manufacturing side. look at the service side. it is even worse. this is supposed to be the strong part of our economy! let me bring in wellington private wealth chief market strategist jim thorne. jim, you're on record saying the fed...
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Aug 25, 2024
08/24
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as we highlighted in our last fomc statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dualtiming and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks us stock markets edged higher on friday on powell's remarks. investors widely expect a rate cut in september, and some believe the fed will keep cutting rates through the end
as we highlighted in our last fomc statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dualtiming and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks us stock markets edged higher on friday on powell's remarks. investors widely expect a rate cut in september, and some believe the fed will keep cutting rates through the end
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Aug 23, 2024
08/24
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CNBC
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the fomc's primary focus has been on bringing down inflation and appropriately so.st americans alive today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a sustained period. inflation brought substantial hardship, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. high inflation triggered sense and a sense of unfairness that linger today. while restrictive monetary policy helped restore balance between aggregate supply and demand, easing inflationary pressures and ensure that inflation expectations remained well anchored. inflation is now much closer to our objective with prices having risen 2.5% over the past 12 months. after a pause earlier this year, progress toward our 2% objective has resumed. my confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%. in the years just prior to the pandemic, we saw the significant benefits to society that can come from a long period of strong labor market conditions, low unemployment, high participation, historically low employment gaps and with in
the fomc's primary focus has been on bringing down inflation and appropriately so.st americans alive today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a sustained period. inflation brought substantial hardship, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. high inflation triggered sense and a sense of unfairness that linger today. while restrictive monetary policy helped restore balance between aggregate supply and demand,...
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Aug 9, 2024
08/24
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if that's right, the fomc decides the right calibration is 25 basis points.ter, they were planning before. they were planning quarterly. that would be one step up in the speed. to get two steps up in the speed to 50 basis points, you would need to see a worse data than we have seen so far. historically the fed has only done more drastic things like enter meeting because. there was either some sort of crisis going on or what jobless claims were much higher than they are today. in both cases he felt like you needed to act aggressively right now in order to stop things from getting worse rapidly. i don't think we are there now. jonathan: how have your thoughts evolved about the destination? what is the endpoint for interest rates? david: we continue to think 3.2 5% to 3.5%. that is 100 basis points above where the hiking cycle stopped last cycle. that is different. this has been one of our core house views going back a decade plus. neutral is not and never was quite as low as the conventional wisdom held last cycle. we were dealing with the aftermath of a lif --
if that's right, the fomc decides the right calibration is 25 basis points.ter, they were planning before. they were planning quarterly. that would be one step up in the speed. to get two steps up in the speed to 50 basis points, you would need to see a worse data than we have seen so far. historically the fed has only done more drastic things like enter meeting because. there was either some sort of crisis going on or what jobless claims were much higher than they are today. in both cases he...
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Aug 22, 2024
08/24
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difference to those revisions yesterday make to this federal reserve get together this week and the fomcting next month? dani: it depends what you already believe. because that is what we did with this revisions data. if you believe the fed should be acting sooner it enforced that the labor market had been weakening for some time. if you don't, it enforced that, still above 170,000, that is goldilocks. considering the fed has been talking about moving gradually they might fall into the latter camp. we learned from the minutes that whether or not they did at the meeting or afterwards, they have now more focused on the risk of the labor market, the risk of not cutting soon enough. jonathan: when you hear that there was a 70,000 per month reduction in average payrolls for the year ending march 2024 at sounds like a lot of jobs. because it is. when you go through the average print of 170,000 against 240,000, 70,000 still seems good. dani: it does. 40% of the revisions came from business practices. in other words, consulting. i just want to know what is going on with these consulting firms th
difference to those revisions yesterday make to this federal reserve get together this week and the fomcting next month? dani: it depends what you already believe. because that is what we did with this revisions data. if you believe the fed should be acting sooner it enforced that the labor market had been weakening for some time. if you don't, it enforced that, still above 170,000, that is goldilocks. considering the fed has been talking about moving gradually they might fall into the latter...
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Aug 26, 2024
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as we highlighted in our last fomc statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our duale of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. us stock markets edged higher on powell's remarks. but here in asia, markets are trading lower on monday, with japan's nikkei 225 index losing around i%. investors widely expect a rate cut in september, and some believe the fed will keep cutting rates
as we highlighted in our last fomc statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our duale of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. us stock markets edged higher on powell's remarks. but here in asia, markets are trading lower on monday, with japan's nikkei 225 index losing around i%. investors widely expect a rate cut in september, and some believe the fed will keep cutting rates
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Aug 21, 2024
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emily said in the minutes that the fomc did take about slowing discretionaries consumption. that's a concern we all have been thinking, where is the consumer finding the money? right now the gap is several percentage points. when you look at households, who mass the savings? the stock market market and protection wealth, that is the top 50%. when you talk about the lower 50%, they hold maybe 2% of all stock market and pension wealth, so it's really the top earners that have been doing the consumption. even they are starting to slow down. that has the fed concerned about where it is that consumption they are looking for. they think the downward revision is overstated, because the jobless claims, and also the qcw, and it's not probably we need to go down by 818k, but maybe by 2 or 300, 25k per month is not moving the needle on what continues tore a growing economy. >> what it really means, getting back to my stratification is that more and more people, especially in the lower 80% of the income distribution are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet. that's why there's
emily said in the minutes that the fomc did take about slowing discretionaries consumption. that's a concern we all have been thinking, where is the consumer finding the money? right now the gap is several percentage points. when you look at households, who mass the savings? the stock market market and protection wealth, that is the top 50%. when you talk about the lower 50%, they hold maybe 2% of all stock market and pension wealth, so it's really the top earners that have been doing the...
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Aug 26, 2024
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as we highlighted in our last fomc statement, we are attentive to the risks of both sides of our dualandate. the time has come for policy to adjust. a direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. that and the balance of risks. wasjerome powell there. us stock markets edged higher on powell's remarks. but in asia, markets are trading lower with japan's nikkei 225 index losing around 1%. investors widely expect a rate cut in september and some believe that the fed will keep cutting rates through the end of the year and into 2025. joining me now is jason palmer, partner at new markets venture partners. also a former exec at microsoft and entrepreneur. lovely to have you with us. what do you make of the timing? is this the right time? it is definitely the right time. probably 30 to 60 days overdue. at this point with united states inflation rate down at 2.5% and unemployment edging upwards night 4.3%, it is pretty clear that at least one if not two or three rate cuts are coming soon. we if
as we highlighted in our last fomc statement, we are attentive to the risks of both sides of our dualandate. the time has come for policy to adjust. a direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. that and the balance of risks. wasjerome powell there. us stock markets edged higher on powell's remarks. but in asia, markets are trading lower with japan's nikkei 225 index losing around 1%. investors...
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Aug 19, 2024
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in the meantime week have the fomc minutes for july on wednesday as well as the housing demand and weekly jobless claims futures pointing higher for euro stoxx 50 futures. lower for the ftse 100 but broadly flat to the upside stateside. last week was the stocks best week rally since october 2022 which means at the moment good news is good news again because of the hopes of a soft landing being rekindled. goodman cutting the risk of recession to 20%. cross asset picture -- the 10 your u.s. treasury yield steady at 3.8%. the yen, trading at 146 per dollar jumping 1% amid a broad weakness in the u.s. currency. looking at gold flirting with an all-time high on hopes of it fed cut -- of a fed cut. and traders monitor the developments in the middle east and ukraine where we await the gaza cease-fire and a potential iran retaliation and given it is a lean week for data you could see geopolitics dominating sentiment. that's get to asia where avril hong can give us more information on the yen move. avril: we are seeing asia stocks gauge extending the gains from friday. this is helped along by thos
in the meantime week have the fomc minutes for july on wednesday as well as the housing demand and weekly jobless claims futures pointing higher for euro stoxx 50 futures. lower for the ftse 100 but broadly flat to the upside stateside. last week was the stocks best week rally since october 2022 which means at the moment good news is good news again because of the hopes of a soft landing being rekindled. goodman cutting the risk of recession to 20%. cross asset picture -- the 10 your u.s....
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Aug 29, 2024
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lisa: how much will receive of actual dissent on this fomc committee?powell. we have talked about this, and i agree that this level of benchmark rates is structurally a lot higher to where inflation is at, and you could make an argument for why rates should be lower, but they have not led the market to believe a 50 basis point is the base case. they have the optionality if the market shows signs of deteriorating faster than expected. hard to see how they could see that parmet, unless we see true weakness. jonathan: based on what we have heard from than the last week or so. outside of equities in the bond market, on the 10-year treasury, yield further down the curve, 382.90 2 -- 3.8292, 1.1097 on u.s. -- on euro-dollar. and further rate cuts down the road to the ecb, a weaker euro. cross asset, that's the story. coming up, drew pettit of citigroup as stocks fall following nvidia earnings, heidi crebo-rediker, and lydia boussour on her call for three fed cuts before the year end. after failing to live up to skyhigh expectations, drew writes the following,
lisa: how much will receive of actual dissent on this fomc committee?powell. we have talked about this, and i agree that this level of benchmark rates is structurally a lot higher to where inflation is at, and you could make an argument for why rates should be lower, but they have not led the market to believe a 50 basis point is the base case. they have the optionality if the market shows signs of deteriorating faster than expected. hard to see how they could see that parmet, unless we see...
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Aug 21, 2024
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i would have thought going into today's fomc meeting minutes that, you know, there wouldn't be much surprise, but you see the market rally on the back of that i think the market is relatively well calibrated. i think it will matter -- employment figures, i think revisions show it, and so, i do think the fed might take a bit of a dovish tilt from here. obviously data dependent from the next few meetings. >> stef, you said yesterday you were nervous cutting in, not nervous coming out. >> no. not that it was the greatest outlook in the world, but i guess a positive comp relative to expectations is good enough. >> for scherr. this company missed earnings four times, beat once, in line once. that's why i was nervous. it's been inconsistent, so rare from this management team. it took them a lot time to get out of the hole that put themselves in. they shall birds of covid, then people went into services, and they got hammered. that's why it's taken so long. this was a quarter that was very, very solid, and it showed that the product innovation and the pricing that they're taking is working. a comp
i would have thought going into today's fomc meeting minutes that, you know, there wouldn't be much surprise, but you see the market rally on the back of that i think the market is relatively well calibrated. i think it will matter -- employment figures, i think revisions show it, and so, i do think the fed might take a bit of a dovish tilt from here. obviously data dependent from the next few meetings. >> stef, you said yesterday you were nervous cutting in, not nervous coming out....
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i give 65% of jay powell and fomc. not just from friday but from the very beginning and that first rate hike should have been 75 basis points and growth, everyone is coming to grips and earnings not growing as fast and economy obviously is slowing a lot faster than anyone thought and experts and what steve talked about, 5% and geopolitical risk is 5% and look at hardest hit thing and they mentioned the nasdaq and small caps and russell and last say 72 hours and maybe four or five days since harris started going up in the polls, they have crashed. that was a hot trade. that was what everyone was saying and transition going from big tech to the russell 2,000 and domestic economy under a president trump. that all has gone away. stuart: look, we still have a selloff in progress. i'm showing you the fear gauge and it's the bit and going all about that and it briefly topped 60 for the first time since march of 2020. we're getting into the pandemic and now it's 3918 i see. that's the vicks right now. that's moderated just a l
i give 65% of jay powell and fomc. not just from friday but from the very beginning and that first rate hike should have been 75 basis points and growth, everyone is coming to grips and earnings not growing as fast and economy obviously is slowing a lot faster than anyone thought and experts and what steve talked about, 5% and geopolitical risk is 5% and look at hardest hit thing and they mentioned the nasdaq and small caps and russell and last say 72 hours and maybe four or five days since...
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Aug 22, 2024
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much for september, that's how the picture looks, if you take in commendation those numbers plus the fomcinutes, it pretty much all together till she there's nothing really to stop the fed going ahead in september. we do have more data to come, we have a jobs report the first week of september. but it would need something shocking now to really derail it, we've been reporting on bloomberg that is probably the mildest ever leverage positions we've seen on the treasury futures market and that tells you there's enormous amounts of money concentrating on expectations that interest rates are coming down. they would need something very shocking to dissuade anybody they got it wrong at this stage. lizzy: you talk about the upcoming jobs report, when you get revisions like these, does it take the edge off the importance of that report? mark: possibly at the margin, but whatever way you cut it, every time a jobs report comes out, it's a very substantial piece of information. it's key to the whole picture, as the fed watches jobs and inflation more than anything else. and we had the uptick to the u
much for september, that's how the picture looks, if you take in commendation those numbers plus the fomcinutes, it pretty much all together till she there's nothing really to stop the fed going ahead in september. we do have more data to come, we have a jobs report the first week of september. but it would need something shocking now to really derail it, we've been reporting on bloomberg that is probably the mildest ever leverage positions we've seen on the treasury futures market and that...
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Aug 21, 2024
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of course jackson hole is going to supersede the fomc minutes today. the markets will get whatever they want, whatever that means, probably not. we are data dependent, cautious stability. >> what do we need to see out of jackson hole? a green light? a signal that jerome powell plans to cut rates? >> right now it's cutting rates in a relatively stable manner and soft landing. that's the narrative. we want to stay in sort of the old phrase of bad news is good news kind of a vibe as long as things are decelerating. in a stable manner, we have a soft landing. that's why you don't want to rock the boat too much. perhaps we need to cut a bit more aggressively than anticipated. that may tip the sentiment toward the negative side. >> the market pricing would suggest that's not necessarily the base case or the need right now as well. there are some out there saying 50 is plausible. what's your view? >> we would protect against that barring a massive turn or something like that. you could put it back on the agenda. i think some of the vibes around an emergency c
of course jackson hole is going to supersede the fomc minutes today. the markets will get whatever they want, whatever that means, probably not. we are data dependent, cautious stability. >> what do we need to see out of jackson hole? a green light? a signal that jerome powell plans to cut rates? >> right now it's cutting rates in a relatively stable manner and soft landing. that's the narrative. we want to stay in sort of the old phrase of bad news is good news kind of a vibe as...
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Aug 2, 2024
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we have had a turbulent couple of days since the fomc met this week, and you would have thought with relatively dovish outlook the traders would be happy, but the way equity markets are going and this tremendous move in the treasury market. the 10 year is down to what 3% handle, there was resistance the markets are suggesting not that the fed is behind the curve but they need to get on with it and do a bigger rate cut. the job of the fed speakers will be ticket events traders that the idea of a soft landing is still in place, that they can afford to take their time. they probably will lower rates in september provided the data continues to move in the right direction, but they will want to abide the idea that they need to do a 50 basis rate cut in september. i will probably have a reverse effect to make markets even nervous. you will probably hear fed speakers tried to calm down everybody. that will be the message they are giving in the next few days. joumanna: let's speak about messaging. the bank of england governor says interest rates will settle at above pre-cove a levels followi
we have had a turbulent couple of days since the fomc met this week, and you would have thought with relatively dovish outlook the traders would be happy, but the way equity markets are going and this tremendous move in the treasury market. the 10 year is down to what 3% handle, there was resistance the markets are suggesting not that the fed is behind the curve but they need to get on with it and do a bigger rate cut. the job of the fed speakers will be ticket events traders that the idea of a...
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Aug 26, 2024
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it is a big enough table in the fomc room, that you can fit everything on the table.ould always put everything on the table. what will warrant the speed at which we cut rates, or how much we pause on the cutting, will be determined by how the totality of the conditions show. i think there are definitely warning signs. though there are also signs of strength. on the warning category, the unemployment rate drifting up is definitely a warning sign. if you look at the delinquencies on credit cards. if you look at small business defaults, all of those are in warning category. on the stronger category, gdp growth has been robust, consumer spending still strong driven by, i think, robust wage growth. we just have to watch the whole thing. joumanna: that was chicago fed president austan goolsbee speaking to bloomberg at jackson hole. we will be speaking with the fed's later today. catch that exclusive interview at 7:00 p.m. u.k. time. now some of the other stories making use. new boeing ceo kelly ortberg faces questions over the starliner program after nasa turns to spacex to
it is a big enough table in the fomc room, that you can fit everything on the table.ould always put everything on the table. what will warrant the speed at which we cut rates, or how much we pause on the cutting, will be determined by how the totality of the conditions show. i think there are definitely warning signs. though there are also signs of strength. on the warning category, the unemployment rate drifting up is definitely a warning sign. if you look at the delinquencies on credit cards....
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Aug 29, 2024
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to see more data to confirm the need to cut rates next month, so perhaps one of the members of the fomc chairman powell will need to convince devote for that kind at the september meeting. it will be interesting to see what he says later today. get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. germinal subscribers go to dayb and take a look at some of the top stories on our terminal. one of the mentions is nvidia, further analysis nvidia earnings are having on global stock markets. coming up, in a first for the biden administration the senior white house official jake sullivan sat down for rare talks with the top chinese general. we will discuss that next. ♪ >> it is rare to have this kind of exchange. [indiscernible] joumanna: u.s. national security advisor jake sullivan on the importance of his rare meeting with the chinese army general. a senior white house official jake sullivan did sit down for rare talks with the top chinese general. the meeting marks of the highest level public exchange between a biden administration official
to see more data to confirm the need to cut rates next month, so perhaps one of the members of the fomc chairman powell will need to convince devote for that kind at the september meeting. it will be interesting to see what he says later today. get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. germinal subscribers go to dayb and take a look at some of the top stories on our terminal. one of the mentions is nvidia, further analysis nvidia...
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Aug 13, 2024
08/24
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at the same time i don't want to get ahead of myself if -- fomc saying let's cut let's cut.bers, give us real rates, that is -- is -- fed funds rate less inflation a number, that close to 2%, if we've inflation in that area then we can cut race. >> yeah. >> remember. maria: go ahead. >>, invite more inflation that does not help employment. maria: other thinging wages thomas right? real wages have been down last couple years, what is it going to take to get wages up, and inflation not to consistently outpace wage growth? >> wage growth is moderating also, still above inflation -- they need to get real income back up to where it should be you have to -- you have to expect that if we also get productivity begins a continuing this is where wageworker will win best, productivity numbers real wage increases bring real wages back to where they were not let inflation get loose, undermine that process. high inflation will undermine you productivity we don't need. >>. maria: swooef, what we've been seeing earlier you broke news on home depot, home depot cutting guidance, in came out w
at the same time i don't want to get ahead of myself if -- fomc saying let's cut let's cut.bers, give us real rates, that is -- is -- fed funds rate less inflation a number, that close to 2%, if we've inflation in that area then we can cut race. >> yeah. >> remember. maria: go ahead. >>, invite more inflation that does not help employment. maria: other thinging wages thomas right? real wages have been down last couple years, what is it going to take to get wages up, and...
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Aug 22, 2024
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else is in the past few minutes, steve, former deputy director of the national economic council saying fomc should strongly consider 50 in september. >> saw that. interesting question whether or not you want a down payment. getting weird, you need to go. really the question. i ended my report there, carl, with that question how restrictive the federal reserve is. so think about, i don't know. maybe a spotter in the olympics where you were a week or so ago. right? you want to be close enough to catch the person in they're going to fall. so how does the fed get close enough with rates in order to be able to provide stimulus to the economy? where is that point? if you think about, do the quick math, on the 3%, say, or 2.8%, whatever you want to call it neutral rate, the fed at 540. has to get to a place where it can help or catch the economy if it falls. >> steve, hearing a lot from you in the next 24 hours. our steve liesman in jackson hole. bring in eric johnson of cantor fitzgerald and ellen still with us here at post nine. eric, curious to get your thoughts what tomorrow may sound like and
else is in the past few minutes, steve, former deputy director of the national economic council saying fomc should strongly consider 50 in september. >> saw that. interesting question whether or not you want a down payment. getting weird, you need to go. really the question. i ended my report there, carl, with that question how restrictive the federal reserve is. so think about, i don't know. maybe a spotter in the olympics where you were a week or so ago. right? you want to be close...
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Aug 29, 2024
08/24
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we are still pricing in, and there are only three fomc meetings. >> yeah, we are really sniffing around between 50 basis point cut at a meeting versus a 25. to me it's really a question about unemployment rate. if it moves up again significantly, the fed drew a line in the sand. they don't want to see any further weakness in the labor market data. if we get that, i think that's when we start talking about a 50 basis point cut. this is where we need to differentiate between the s&p 500 and the economy. i think if the fed ends up moving less aggressively because the economic data is good, ironically, maybe bad news for markets, and maybe higher interest rates, and yet it would be good news for the resiliency of the broader u.s. economy. it's a much bigger economy than just these 500 publicly traded companies. vonnie: right now, economists are looking for a 4.2% unemployment rate when we get the number next week. what would that have to be for it to be concerning? would it have to tick up by two, three, four ticks? >> if we even move up to -- yeah, i think .2%, if we move up to 4.5, we sta
we are still pricing in, and there are only three fomc meetings. >> yeah, we are really sniffing around between 50 basis point cut at a meeting versus a 25. to me it's really a question about unemployment rate. if it moves up again significantly, the fed drew a line in the sand. they don't want to see any further weakness in the labor market data. if we get that, i think that's when we start talking about a 50 basis point cut. this is where we need to differentiate between the s&p 500...
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Aug 1, 2024
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made clear that he is keeping september on his calendar as the next point, because that is the next fomceeting, and he will probably use jackson hole to shore up that messaging. how do you see it playing out in terms of actual cuts? is it over the next couple months? yung-yu: we have been talking for the past few weeks that there is a real possibility the fed could cut rates i 50 basis points at the september meeting. the market just today is putting in that probability at around 20%. when we started talking about that, the market was having that probably around 5%, which we thought was a gross underestimation of the possibility for labor market or other economic weakness between now and september. the fed was not in the mindset of cutting rates at this meeting yesterday. look at the arguments and the questions that chair powell received from reporters. really, there was a lot of potential to start rate cuts then, or the arguments for starting rate cuts yesterday were quite sound. we think that adds to the potential for the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in september, but we do
made clear that he is keeping september on his calendar as the next point, because that is the next fomceeting, and he will probably use jackson hole to shore up that messaging. how do you see it playing out in terms of actual cuts? is it over the next couple months? yung-yu: we have been talking for the past few weeks that there is a real possibility the fed could cut rates i 50 basis points at the september meeting. the market just today is putting in that probability at around 20%. when we...