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Apr 12, 2024
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austan goolsbee, federal reserve bank president. good to see you. >> great to see you again. neil: tell me exactly what the fed does at the next meeting? >> great relief to my colleagues and as i always start, i do not speak for anyone else on the committee, i speak for myself. neil: you seen these crosscurrents. >> crosscurrents, we are in an environment like you said with crosscurrents for the second half of 2023 made good progress getting the inflation rate down from the unbearable peace that it had reached and we did that without a recession which was virtually unheard of and now at the start of this year we've gotten multiple inflation readings that are higher than where we wanted them to be. one month is no months, but 2 months you've got yourself a real months and now we've got 2 to 3 months of cbi inflation. we will see what happens on pce inflation but we must get inflation back down, the law says we need to maximize and play men, stabilize prices, and if we are not getting the job done we have to get the job done. neil: we are told personal consumption particularly
austan goolsbee, federal reserve bank president. good to see you. >> great to see you again. neil: tell me exactly what the fed does at the next meeting? >> great relief to my colleagues and as i always start, i do not speak for anyone else on the committee, i speak for myself. neil: you seen these crosscurrents. >> crosscurrents, we are in an environment like you said with crosscurrents for the second half of 2023 made good progress getting the inflation rate down from the...
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Apr 19, 2024
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that is infla inflationary itself. >> goolsbee is a very practical man. that's totally true. i think he looks at what the home bimuilders are doing, which is to say, i'm not going to build homes, i'm going to buy stock. first time ever. >> little bounce at the open dow is up almost the 2 hundred check bonds as well. i think goolsbee will be speaking today, but that's pretty much it in terms of fed speak and data >> thank heavens maybe they're doing that stuff where they don't work fridays. >> the fed is moving to a four-day week. >> great stuff with a uruguay movie. >> ten-year, 4.6%. ♪♪ the road to opportunity. is often the road overlooked. at enterprise mobility, we guide companies to unique solutions, from our team of mobility experts. because we believe the more ways we all have to move forward the further we all go. encore energy, america's clean energy company, now in production in south texas. energizing america with reliable and affordable uranium for nuclear energy fuel from our environmentally friendly extraction process. encore energy. >>>
that is infla inflationary itself. >> goolsbee is a very practical man. that's totally true. i think he looks at what the home bimuilders are doing, which is to say, i'm not going to build homes, i'm going to buy stock. first time ever. >> little bounce at the open dow is up almost the 2 hundred check bonds as well. i think goolsbee will be speaking today, but that's pretty much it in terms of fed speak and data >> thank heavens maybe they're doing that stuff where they don't...
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Apr 10, 2024
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we're watching 12:45, too, because we're going to hear from goolsbee and barkin. we may hear from liesman, too, on what they have tosay about the cpi in their own map for interest rate cuts. don't miss first-ever changemakers event, women in leadership transforming the business world. scan the qr code or visit cnbcevents.com/changemakers. at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience, helps investors meet their goals. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow today. (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus ons. real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after
we're watching 12:45, too, because we're going to hear from goolsbee and barkin. we may hear from liesman, too, on what they have tosay about the cpi in their own map for interest rate cuts. don't miss first-ever changemakers event, women in leadership transforming the business world. scan the qr code or visit cnbcevents.com/changemakers. at pgim, finding opportunity in fixed income today, helps secure tomorrow. our time-tested fixed income suite, backed by over 145 years of risk experience,...
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Apr 13, 2024
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i did talk to austan goolsbee on that subject, keith. i want to get your reaction to this. >> if we start getting better readings that show us that that arc of inflation coming down is true, that will make us feel a lot better about where we are in terms of monetary policy environment. if the pce inflation is reinflating, then like i say, our job is stabilize prices, and we will stabilize the prices. neil: which means you will not be cutting. finish. [laughter] as a i say, i'm not going to, i'm not going to commit to what the policy should be -- [laughter] let's just look at the numbers. neil: all right. what he was talking about there, and you know this better than anyone, keith, the arc of data, you know, is, it's friendly and the price data looks friendly, all is fine with the world. if we get more numbers like the pce, the personal if consumption expenditures index which shows inflation at its core, apparently a favorite number of the federal reserve, that could be another thing and all bets are off. if all bets are off, in other wor
i did talk to austan goolsbee on that subject, keith. i want to get your reaction to this. >> if we start getting better readings that show us that that arc of inflation coming down is true, that will make us feel a lot better about where we are in terms of monetary policy environment. if the pce inflation is reinflating, then like i say, our job is stabilize prices, and we will stabilize the prices. neil: which means you will not be cutting. finish. [laughter] as a i say, i'm not going...
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Apr 4, 2024
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raise your hand for goolsbee later this hour, what he says and how the markets react. the stock is hanging in. so we'll see. let's move and talk about tech because it all plays into this conversation to josh's idea, rates come down, tek goes up. the idea, too, whether this market is in a bubble because of rates and whether some stocks have bubble like qualities though the market may not be. david einhorn, here is what he said. >> i don't particularly think we're in a bubble. we covered in the first quarter of last year. based on companies that are involved. >> liz, the bears love to point out, look at the stock moves. nvidia is up so much. a lot of the chips names have gone crazy. it's got to be a bubble, right? that's what you still hear from the bears. what do you make of what both cohen and einhorn had to say? it's not a bubble. >> i don't think it's a broad bubble. i think there was a bubble and maybe still is in the enthusiasm around a.i. in the sense of expecting it to come to fruition this year or some time in the next 12 months. i still think it's a theme that
raise your hand for goolsbee later this hour, what he says and how the markets react. the stock is hanging in. so we'll see. let's move and talk about tech because it all plays into this conversation to josh's idea, rates come down, tek goes up. the idea, too, whether this market is in a bubble because of rates and whether some stocks have bubble like qualities though the market may not be. david einhorn, here is what he said. >> i don't particularly think we're in a bubble. we covered in...
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Apr 23, 2024
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they have, you know, as austan goolsbee described it, he said we have one tool that's a screwdriver and we tighten or loosen, and that's it. some people drink that for breakfast. >> yeah, screwdriver thank you very much. carl, thank you, as well >>> rate cut concerns leave markets on edge, but the recent pullback has eliminated froth. he's president of potomac wealth advisers mark, good to have you with us >> good to be here >> so you see the possibility that this little blowoff of the steam is a good thing for equities >> absolutely. i think it's a little test that investors go through it sorts out investors that aren't committed to the names they open. and i think the valuations, while they didn't drop dramatically, it was a three-week scare, and last friday was a wakeup call we think that the economy is still in tact for growth growth, strong gdp, strong employment, strong wage growth as i was listening to the conversation you had about the fed and rates, we just think it's a strong economy. we think there will be rate cuts eventually, not as early as july as we heard. this economy i
they have, you know, as austan goolsbee described it, he said we have one tool that's a screwdriver and we tighten or loosen, and that's it. some people drink that for breakfast. >> yeah, screwdriver thank you very much. carl, thank you, as well >>> rate cut concerns leave markets on edge, but the recent pullback has eliminated froth. he's president of potomac wealth advisers mark, good to have you with us >> good to be here >> so you see the possibility that this...
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Apr 4, 2024
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steve, we're getting some headlines from austan goolsbee. what can you tell us? >> going right in line with the themes we talked about. he said the policy stance is restrictive and these are a little more dovish commentary. he says we need to be mindful how long the fed remains restrictive. he may be emphasizing it a bit. some cautionary sales on the real sign of the economy, he's looking at rising consumer delinquencies, to be careful how long the fed is restrictive. productivity growth has rebounded, and he can't write off the january inflationary numbers. he's watching that very closely, and he says the data should not knock us off the pard towards the 2% target. he says the biggest inflation danger is the high housing cost, and it would be difficult for the fed to hit that 2% market if housing remains high. core service inflation, the think that powell is talking to, has improved a good deal. i want to show you a chart. take a look at this. he says we're not far there the prepandemic level on that key metric. if you look here, 3.3 in february was the number,
steve, we're getting some headlines from austan goolsbee. what can you tell us? >> going right in line with the themes we talked about. he said the policy stance is restrictive and these are a little more dovish commentary. he says we need to be mindful how long the fed remains restrictive. he may be emphasizing it a bit. some cautionary sales on the real sign of the economy, he's looking at rising consumer delinquencies, to be careful how long the fed is restrictive. productivity growth...
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Apr 26, 2024
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had another uptick in inflation report year over year, it is pretty clear as powell has set at austan goolsbee and other members of the fed said they will stick to the 2% target going in the opposite direction going further away from the 2% so interest rates are down a tick today. a huge jump but it's not affecting the nasdaq, used to be so sensitive, are they completely over that? >> we are in the thick of earnings season and let's most important for investors to look at our how leading stocks are acting, and how they are responding to this data weather is favorable or unfavorable, sometimes you can get negative data and if you can have a strong market despite that that's a signal of underlying strength but the picture is a little unclear here because of that. when you look at historical markets they take a little more -- this earnings season to be the game changer. they are coming up to key resistance levels in short-term perspective so can we have a strong closer will we fade by the end of the day. will those concerns on anna, namic front outweigh strong tech earnings? we will have to see b
had another uptick in inflation report year over year, it is pretty clear as powell has set at austan goolsbee and other members of the fed said they will stick to the 2% target going in the opposite direction going further away from the 2% so interest rates are down a tick today. a huge jump but it's not affecting the nasdaq, used to be so sensitive, are they completely over that? >> we are in the thick of earnings season and let's most important for investors to look at our how leading...
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Apr 19, 2024
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surprised me -- we didn't get jackson hole powell this week >> i'm so tired, it's been a long week, was it goolsbee this morning that said housing stays hot, they're all starting to shuffle people into the no cut camp >> this is what's happening in the market the russell 1,000 is down 165 basis points and the russell 1,000 value is up 32 >> regional banks are up today if we thought it was going to be, like, rates are going to choke off the economy, i'm not sure regional banks would be up today. i think it's a very scrambled storyline. >> a rotation. >> i think it's rotation, 100% value versus growth. that's what's going on >> maybe the big question is how long does the rotation last? i know this block is over, so if we're going to talk about it, it has to be the next block a short commercialre bak markets, nasdaq, lows of the day or close to it ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ people couldn't see my potential. so i had to show them. i've run this place for 20 years, but i still need to prove that i'm more than what you see on paper. today i'm the ceo of my own company. it's the way my mind works.
surprised me -- we didn't get jackson hole powell this week >> i'm so tired, it's been a long week, was it goolsbee this morning that said housing stays hot, they're all starting to shuffle people into the no cut camp >> this is what's happening in the market the russell 1,000 is down 165 basis points and the russell 1,000 value is up 32 >> regional banks are up today if we thought it was going to be, like, rates are going to choke off the economy, i'm not sure regional banks...
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Apr 21, 2024
04/24
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data, fed officials including austan goolsbee saying monetary officials need more time before cutting rates because he believes progress has stalled on inflation. for tom barker the u.s. economy is not showing signs of running too hot. >> we are in a situation where demand is robust but i see no signs that it is overheating. overheating would lead to pressure on wages and prices. you can't find that in the wage numbers or the three-month price numbers. paul: let's bring in our first guest, deputy chief economist at amv. thanks for being here. a big week for a lot of data. we will get pce numbers out of the u.s., the feds were -- preferred gauge. this may remain elevated. we are seeing delays to fed cuts this year. can you see a scenario where we don't get any easing in 2024? 3 -- >> i think it is an increasing risk but the base case is where we see easing pushed out later into the year. the key indicator we need to watch for signs of the weaker inflation print, that is an wages growth. we have clearly seen a straw it -- slowing in u.s. wages growth, 4% on average earnings and it needs
data, fed officials including austan goolsbee saying monetary officials need more time before cutting rates because he believes progress has stalled on inflation. for tom barker the u.s. economy is not showing signs of running too hot. >> we are in a situation where demand is robust but i see no signs that it is overheating. overheating would lead to pressure on wages and prices. you can't find that in the wage numbers or the three-month price numbers. paul: let's bring in our first...
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Apr 5, 2024
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that's been interesting coming out of austan goolsbee's mouth this week. we've heard enough from fed officials, but it's been moving down their number of rate cuts rather than moving up. >> steve, break down this idea of immigration and how this is keeping the job market strong and also relating to some of those housing and remitting prices. >> i'll preface this by saying the fed wants to stay away from inflation like it's -- or immigration like the plague. it does not want to weigh in on the politics of it. what they're doing is taking the cards dealt to them, the cards that have been dealt to them is much higher immigration. i believe that the cbo just upgraded by like 4 million the number of immigrants in this country, documented i guess and undocumented, as well. those folks are showing up in the payroll report. they seem to be bodies that we are able to put to work. and what the wages are at those levels, i'm a little unclear how much of that is on the books. i believe they seem to be mostly ending up in some counted way on the books, on the tax rolls
that's been interesting coming out of austan goolsbee's mouth this week. we've heard enough from fed officials, but it's been moving down their number of rate cuts rather than moving up. >> steve, break down this idea of immigration and how this is keeping the job market strong and also relating to some of those housing and remitting prices. >> i'll preface this by saying the fed wants to stay away from inflation like it's -- or immigration like the plague. it does not want to weigh...
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Apr 24, 2024
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past three quarters have seen an off the chart number average of 3.7% chicago fed president austan goolsbee laid out how critical it is for the fed to get this right. >> that's fundamentally going to change everything about the economy, in a way. and it would have direct implications for monetary policy it would put us back in an environment that would very much be like the late '90s, where you could have faster wage growth without inflation, you could have faster gdp growth >> but there are skeptics who say this is post pandemic noise in the data. that you have work from home, but the hours are mismeasured, and it's too soon to tell, because productivity is best measured over scales like five or ten years the optimists say work from home could be a source of greater efficiency with better matching productive employees with jobs companies learning to do more with less from the pandemic, and higher growth and inflation, forcing them to higher productivity measures. jay powell has been in the camp of skeptical, but on "squawkbox" this morning, jason fuhrman summed up the middle ground. >> wha
past three quarters have seen an off the chart number average of 3.7% chicago fed president austan goolsbee laid out how critical it is for the fed to get this right. >> that's fundamentally going to change everything about the economy, in a way. and it would have direct implications for monetary policy it would put us back in an environment that would very much be like the late '90s, where you could have faster wage growth without inflation, you could have faster gdp growth >> but...
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Apr 11, 2024
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austan goolsbee saying they are worse when it comes to conversion reads. we are getting to the point when there will be more trade-offs than last year. not ready to take a rate cut of the table but allowing inflation is going to have to run harder to cater to the pockets of we in other parts of the economy. annmarie: the other fed official said you have to stay humble with this environment and the statement. palmetto arian with a piece solidifying something he talked about which is the the fed in order to remain -- needs to accept 2% to 3% inflation. if they don't, they have the potential of bernanke gains in the economy. jonathan: equity futures on the s&p 500, bottom to the koran. equity futures negative. so much for the great rotation -- grand rotation. within the equity market on the s&p 500, equal weight versus market cap weight. outperforming any the face of much higher yields. the next seven, nvidia positive yesterday. this was brutal. lisa: remember when this was the rate sensitive trade and now it is the rate insensitive trade? people are confused
austan goolsbee saying they are worse when it comes to conversion reads. we are getting to the point when there will be more trade-offs than last year. not ready to take a rate cut of the table but allowing inflation is going to have to run harder to cater to the pockets of we in other parts of the economy. annmarie: the other fed official said you have to stay humble with this environment and the statement. palmetto arian with a piece solidifying something he talked about which is the the fed...
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Apr 4, 2024
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are four more fed speakers speaking on the outlook this afternoon and this morning including barkin, goolsbee, kashkari and mester. several themes have emerged in the fed speak this week. 17 of 19 have forecasted at least one cut this year with the meeting of three. these cuts are forecast, not promised, with most saying something like it's likely appropriate to ease some time this year. notice no time there. cuts are data dependent with several couching their forecast with the phrase "if if the economy evolves as expected" for most is confidence in declining inflation, but there is no particular rush we keep hearing with several saying policy is well positioned for whatever comes next. we have time, some have said. officials have started to speak about the speed of the decline in inflation as the key to when and how much they reduce rates faster or sooner. cuts could be linked to a quicker and deeper decline in inflation or unexpected weakening of the economy. note that fed does not seem at this time to be concerned about a stronger economy. that could change. all of this linked to the jobs
are four more fed speakers speaking on the outlook this afternoon and this morning including barkin, goolsbee, kashkari and mester. several themes have emerged in the fed speak this week. 17 of 19 have forecasted at least one cut this year with the meeting of three. these cuts are forecast, not promised, with most saying something like it's likely appropriate to ease some time this year. notice no time there. cuts are data dependent with several couching their forecast with the phrase "if...
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Apr 4, 2024
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yesterday, we got lots of fed speak today, i wanted to get to that here, we have harker, we have barkin, goolsbee, neel kashkari, and loretta mester, all speaking on the economic outlook. we don't know where the fed stands after today, i assume it is because we're not paying attention or they were not clear. powell making the point yesterday of saying that the fed doesn't take politics or personal decisions into account when setting policy. after fed governor adriana cougler spoke yesterday, thinking about the biden appointees and the trump appointees to the fed, i find it hard to find much difference in the outlooks of one side, joe, being more dovish than the other. >> i thought it's strange, strange, steve. i guess we got to listen to jay powell, though we were at 6 for a while. i don't know if most people were. three to a lot of people now sounds probably unlikely. but they're sticking to it. that was kind of interesting. they don't want -- they don't care if the market goes higher, do they? they're not trying to disappoint investors. that's not why they're doing this. >> no. >> why are they
yesterday, we got lots of fed speak today, i wanted to get to that here, we have harker, we have barkin, goolsbee, neel kashkari, and loretta mester, all speaking on the economic outlook. we don't know where the fed stands after today, i assume it is because we're not paying attention or they were not clear. powell making the point yesterday of saying that the fed doesn't take politics or personal decisions into account when setting policy. after fed governor adriana cougler spoke yesterday,...
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Apr 5, 2024
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i mean, goolsbee one of the more dovish folks out there, i would say, said, hey, i've got to hi about this. whether that's a bump along the road or not. i'm trying to remember, see this as a bump in the road and we're okay. they're not taking action yet based upon that conclusion. in other words, not saying, it was a bump. i'm cutting next month. what they're saying is, it was a bump, maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. take that into factoring in whether or not -- waller even said that -- it's changed his view. said you know what? i got to start -- maybe a couple more months is all i need of assu assurance. >> what did he say? >> no rush. i wish we had the wall of yesterday. repeating of the refrain is musical in the sense of,we'll take our time or whatever -- you know, it's all data dependent. keep hitting these points. the only thing kashkari did was say out loud what is implicit in what every other, not every other but most fed officials saying i don't think they're going to cut with 2.8 be consistent over the next several months. >> stay here. bringing in another voice. head of u.s. -
i mean, goolsbee one of the more dovish folks out there, i would say, said, hey, i've got to hi about this. whether that's a bump along the road or not. i'm trying to remember, see this as a bump in the road and we're okay. they're not taking action yet based upon that conclusion. in other words, not saying, it was a bump. i'm cutting next month. what they're saying is, it was a bump, maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. take that into factoring in whether or not -- waller even said that -- it's...
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Apr 24, 2024
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place alongside the inflation debate about whether it is a real or a blip the consequences as austan goolsbee said last week are far reaching >> that's fundamentally going to change everything about the economy, in a way. and it would have direct implications for monetary policy it would put us back in an environment that would very much be like the late '90s, where you could have faster wage growth without inflation, could have faster gdp growth. >> we have had really nice productivity in the last year or so, but it is probably still very much affected by the post pandemic factors that we're seeing i think we need to see more to understand whether there is a longer term -- >> here is what the skeptics are saying, it is all noise, because they like to look at productivity over a five-year span there is work from home they think that may be distorting where people aren't reporting the hours worked, being mismeasured, they say it is too soon to tell. they're saying work from home say source of greater efficiency with better matching of employees with jobs. companies are learning to do more with
place alongside the inflation debate about whether it is a real or a blip the consequences as austan goolsbee said last week are far reaching >> that's fundamentally going to change everything about the economy, in a way. and it would have direct implications for monetary policy it would put us back in an environment that would very much be like the late '90s, where you could have faster wage growth without inflation, could have faster gdp growth. >> we have had really nice...
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Apr 5, 2024
04/24
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lisa: austan goolsbee, firmly not enjoying lunch with them at all. saying that if you take a longer arc on inflation coming down, he's the resident dove and wants to cut rates. lower investor, -- lauren vester, a little bit different. they need to see evidence that inflation is coming down for the majority to get on board. jonathan: i still sense a grand compromise that could change with incoming information. i think that is how you get everyone on the same page at the moment. lisa: although again we have just seen how economic data moved past them. yes, there were upside surprises, but the downside surprises are going to begin. jonathan: we will continue to go through the numbers for you. strong comments from janet yellen, accusing china of taking coercive action against american companies. she says she can -- will continue to bring up the issue as her trip continues, ramping up chinese subsidies and manufacturing against -- in the election. we just spoke to ed mills about 10 minutes ago. he gave me the impression, alluded to it, pretty directly in
lisa: austan goolsbee, firmly not enjoying lunch with them at all. saying that if you take a longer arc on inflation coming down, he's the resident dove and wants to cut rates. lower investor, -- lauren vester, a little bit different. they need to see evidence that inflation is coming down for the majority to get on board. jonathan: i still sense a grand compromise that could change with incoming information. i think that is how you get everyone on the same page at the moment. lisa: although...
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Apr 12, 2024
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it does make it harder for them to get on to the golden path that austan goolsbee is talking about. the worrying scenario, of course, would be a slowdown in growth with high inflation. that's the place the fed just doesn't want to be. it doesn't feel that's where we are right now. >> you have been watching this very closely. you hear the commentary from a lot of fed owe iffficials who st we are in no rush. wedocn't have to push this. some like raphael bostic saying one cut this year, if that. where do you think higher for longer lands us? is this a situation where you think there is one cut or none this year or are you still feeling generous? >> it is really tough to tell. i want to see what the inflation data looks like. if inflation stays closer to 3% than 2%, i think the bostic scenario is a reasonable base case. the debate, becky, on the committee boils down to what do you need to see to have that confidence and specifically do you need to see a weaker labor market? the big surprise has been we got the disinflation with, you know, even if inflation is sticky, wage growth is comi
it does make it harder for them to get on to the golden path that austan goolsbee is talking about. the worrying scenario, of course, would be a slowdown in growth with high inflation. that's the place the fed just doesn't want to be. it doesn't feel that's where we are right now. >> you have been watching this very closely. you hear the commentary from a lot of fed owe iffficials who st we are in no rush. wedocn't have to push this. some like raphael bostic saying one cut this year, if...