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Dec 14, 2023
12/23
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if you listened to jay powell yesterday, he was a different jay powell to the jay powell i saw at theast press conference. if you look at what has happened in the past week, we have had a strong number, 200 k. 3.7% on point rate. there was validation for lower rates. we had a cpi report that confirmed core inflation in the u.s. at 4%. so this is significant downturn that jay powell is referring to is more on the survey than real data. if we get confirmation, it does not change anything. guy: we talk about central banks being data-dependent. is the fed data dependence now? powell talks about the idea of not wanting to be late out of the cycle. he would rather be earlier than late. current evidence would suggest that the economy is looking good, but he is looking further ahead of that and saying we could project now that we do see inflation coming down and to see growth slowing. that is the big pivot we got yesterday. padhraic: that is what jay powell said. what interests me is whether the fed sees something we do not see. what you said was important. he talked about the dangers in leav
if you listened to jay powell yesterday, he was a different jay powell to the jay powell i saw at theast press conference. if you look at what has happened in the past week, we have had a strong number, 200 k. 3.7% on point rate. there was validation for lower rates. we had a cpi report that confirmed core inflation in the u.s. at 4%. so this is significant downturn that jay powell is referring to is more on the survey than real data. if we get confirmation, it does not change anything. guy: we...
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Dec 1, 2023
12/23
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we will hear from jay powell soon.k crude is up in the bloomberg dollar index is down ever so slightly. one index that did well in november is small caps. the russell 2000 had a nice reprieve from a lot of selling, up nine port -- up 9.4%. even with his gain, we're still in a place where we just don't know whether the rally will extend. we are going to see on the day we are looking at energy as the best sector for the s&p 500. real estate is also higher and industrials on the downside and industrial services and technology, not a lot of drama although the loss down 0.2% overall could bring about a decline on the week. some of the bigger laggards on the day, tesla down for a third day and it seems there is some disappointment over the cyber truck and the prices is higher than expected and the range the charging ranges little less than expected. corporate pc demand is still a little bit light out of the pandemic and we have pfizer down 5.2% as they pull a potential weight loss drug off the market that has side effects. t
we will hear from jay powell soon.k crude is up in the bloomberg dollar index is down ever so slightly. one index that did well in november is small caps. the russell 2000 had a nice reprieve from a lot of selling, up nine port -- up 9.4%. even with his gain, we're still in a place where we just don't know whether the rally will extend. we are going to see on the day we are looking at energy as the best sector for the s&p 500. real estate is also higher and industrials on the downside and...
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Dec 19, 2023
12/23
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i have a new moniker for jay powell, the sorcerer. i will explain later w everyone on board with the soft landing, i will share cautionary tales about such euphoria. don't miss my take why president biden should stop touting the stock markets specially if he wants the rally to go. there are more reasons than that. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. ♪ here comes the rain again, falling on my head like a memory ♪ charles: 1983, british duo the eurythmics. they released a song, here is rains again. it only reached number four on the billboard hot 100 in the united states. i was thinking my song. i would change the title. here comes the cash again. take a look at this, folks. this is the s&p etf, the spydrs, right? largest one day influx of cash. $20 billion. i think that was friday. the past week $35 billion. money is cascading into this thing like crazy. bank of america wrote a note about its clients, the largest inflows since 202 but here is what is interesting, institutional clients, the smart money that missed all of thi
i have a new moniker for jay powell, the sorcerer. i will explain later w everyone on board with the soft landing, i will share cautionary tales about such euphoria. don't miss my take why president biden should stop touting the stock markets specially if he wants the rally to go. there are more reasons than that. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. ♪ here comes the rain again, falling on my head like a memory ♪ charles: 1983, british duo the eurythmics. they...
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Dec 14, 2023
12/23
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>> jay powell is not the person landing this plane. entire cycle has at next to nothing to do with the fed. we got the inflation because of covid in ukraine and we are getting the disinflation because workers came back to work and the economy is opening up and he didn't drilled oil or any of the things that need to be done to get supply going. that's what took the pressure off. the fed is having an effect but they are not the disinflation. it's happening and it has room to run still. romaine: i feel like the fed conversation is a good one to have because you can look at the economic data and see why the fed had to say what it said yesterday. when you look to the rest of the world to killian europe and we heard from the boe today in the bank of japan later, it's a more complex story. if the fed's signaling is done raising rates or to start cutting, does that take pressure off of those other central banks? >> maybe pressure -- i think it's complicated. >> the united states has led europe in particular on inflation. our inflation picked u
>> jay powell is not the person landing this plane. entire cycle has at next to nothing to do with the fed. we got the inflation because of covid in ukraine and we are getting the disinflation because workers came back to work and the economy is opening up and he didn't drilled oil or any of the things that need to be done to get supply going. that's what took the pressure off. the fed is having an effect but they are not the disinflation. it's happening and it has room to run still....
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Dec 13, 2023
12/23
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we don't get that from jay powell. we get his statement, which is essentially a recitation of the fed's overall statement. then we get a mixture of his views and the committee's views on where we are and where we are going. scarlet: looking ahead, in terms of data over the next couple weeks it feels like this is the big thing that the markets have been waiting for. after this what could move markets in terms of pricing for rate cut? michael: not a lot. we get retail sales tomorrow. that gives us an idea of how strong the economy is. the forecast is for the fourth quarter to be slower than the third quarter. at the end of the month we get the pce inflation numbers and consumer spending. those will help the fed make some decisions except the next meeting is not until january 31. we will get a new job support, new retail sales report, new cbi npc before then. -- and pce before then. it will be pretty quiet before then. scarlet: next year in 2024, don't some new fed presidents rotate in as voting members? any sense of whet
we don't get that from jay powell. we get his statement, which is essentially a recitation of the fed's overall statement. then we get a mixture of his views and the committee's views on where we are and where we are going. scarlet: looking ahead, in terms of data over the next couple weeks it feels like this is the big thing that the markets have been waiting for. after this what could move markets in terms of pricing for rate cut? michael: not a lot. we get retail sales tomorrow. that gives...
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Dec 15, 2023
12/23
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avril: it is a shot in the arm from jay powell. working its way through the asian equities and effects space. the bond rally is taking a breather, but it's not what we got from the fed, it's also the pboc that's in focus after the massive liquidity injection, the most on record via the medium term policy loans as it left rates unchanged. this comes on a day where we have economic activity data on the monthly trend. those showing the recovery in china is patchy. chinese stocks are higher today. the hang seng climbed as much as 3.4%. we have chinese property stocks listed in hong kong on the green on the back of megacities such as shanghai xinjiang. -- shanghai. we have gone through the decisions in the terms of the be -- and the terms of the boj. that's look at the cross asset pictures. the expectations are for next week from the bank of japan. the mixed live meeting will be in april, we will get a sense of how they are feeding into inflation. there are corners of the market expecting a move to be imminent. the jpy is hovering at th
avril: it is a shot in the arm from jay powell. working its way through the asian equities and effects space. the bond rally is taking a breather, but it's not what we got from the fed, it's also the pboc that's in focus after the massive liquidity injection, the most on record via the medium term policy loans as it left rates unchanged. this comes on a day where we have economic activity data on the monthly trend. those showing the recovery in china is patchy. chinese stocks are higher today....
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Dec 14, 2023
12/23
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remember jay powell is 100% right about inflation.t really impacts the bottom 50% in terms of income of the country t really hurts them. the top half of the country that own homes and portfolios they can kind of handle 3 and 4% inflation but the bottom half can't. if we see 3 or 4% inflation return the fed might have to pivot again to have to deal with that. charles: right. >> that might become a problem. that is how i get to my -- charles: decidedly anti-volcker. volcker did it for a split second. he corrected it, that is a mistake powell said he would not make. maybe he set himself up for a trap. i was waiting to hear someone mentioned financial conditions, right? because they have changed, they have changed dramatically here recently. you posted a great chart, i would suggest everyone check you out on x/twitter on that, but one final thought along with that because i got less than a minute to go, this kind of reminds me a little bit you can argue back in september of 2007. wall street extends rally after fed move. of course we were
remember jay powell is 100% right about inflation.t really impacts the bottom 50% in terms of income of the country t really hurts them. the top half of the country that own homes and portfolios they can kind of handle 3 and 4% inflation but the bottom half can't. if we see 3 or 4% inflation return the fed might have to pivot again to have to deal with that. charles: right. >> that might become a problem. that is how i get to my -- charles: decidedly anti-volcker. volcker did it for a...
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Dec 18, 2023
12/23
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jay powell may have to reverse himself.y you're long term more than short term, on a short-term basis are you concerned maybe we have come too far too fast? >> i do look at a lot of shorter term indicators particularly the sentiment indicators and bullishness has picked up quite sharply. there was a lot of bearishness this year and certainly october last year. that was good indicators maybe that the market was bottoming. here i think this market has, it's outrun my objectives. i thought we would get to 4600 by year-end. now we're talking about 47 hundred, 4700 as a year-end possibility. but i mean there will be a correction year at some point. i don't think it will be a 10% kind of correction but it may be a associated with the fed trying to walk back this notion that they're going to be easing a lot. charles: yeah. hey, ed, thank you very much. always appreciate your expertise always. >> thank you. charles: folks coming up, mortgage rates sliding under 7% for the first time since office buff does the math add up anyway? we
jay powell may have to reverse himself.y you're long term more than short term, on a short-term basis are you concerned maybe we have come too far too fast? >> i do look at a lot of shorter term indicators particularly the sentiment indicators and bullishness has picked up quite sharply. there was a lot of bearishness this year and certainly october last year. that was good indicators maybe that the market was bottoming. here i think this market has, it's outrun my objectives. i thought...
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Dec 14, 2023
12/23
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this is in reaction to jay powell yesterday.s there anything she can say to c ca catapult the rally further? >> if she does not push back against the recent moves in rates, the rally will continue further. i think almost to keep it where we are, she needs to push back. >> you said earlier that you don't think it is the time for them or they won't make an announcement on reinvestment or the stopping reinvestments. why not? >> we thought the reinvestment would only be scarce through march. they will wait until next spring. that issuance will be high in january and february. they would not want to announce something today for january. they want to wait a bit longer. it is a fine line. i would not be hugely surprised if they did it today. >> is there a paradox to cut interest rates in spring next year and announce qt? >> a bit, yes. we knew there was a time rates are coming lower. that is a dovish move. the ecb would wind down the large balance sheet. it was always clear we would have one foot in cold water and one foot in warm wate
this is in reaction to jay powell yesterday.s there anything she can say to c ca catapult the rally further? >> if she does not push back against the recent moves in rates, the rally will continue further. i think almost to keep it where we are, she needs to push back. >> you said earlier that you don't think it is the time for them or they won't make an announcement on reinvestment or the stopping reinvestments. why not? >> we thought the reinvestment would only be scarce...
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Dec 13, 2023
12/23
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all questions for the fed and jay powell on rate cuts. we will set the press conference stage for you with bruce richards. too much of a good thing? the s&p holding on to, stocks push into overbought territory. the good and the bad for elon musk. tesla recalling 2 million cars. space x inches towards $180 billion valuation. from new york i am alix steel, welcome to bloomberg markets. give me a highlight here? guy: i have the cpi was a bit of a nonevent. the payrolls number was significant. i don't think it brought us much. there's a special moment coming up later on in the program we look forward to this anticipation. it's a moment of comedy gold. you'll want to stay tuned for that. i'm not overselling this it's going to be fantastic. tv gold is coming up. i think the fed is interesting. the fed has pushback. the question is what does that pushback look like. it's a really interesting challenge for next year. it's got to justify why it is cutting, it will probably tell us it is thinking about cutting. many questions. i don't think we will
all questions for the fed and jay powell on rate cuts. we will set the press conference stage for you with bruce richards. too much of a good thing? the s&p holding on to, stocks push into overbought territory. the good and the bad for elon musk. tesla recalling 2 million cars. space x inches towards $180 billion valuation. from new york i am alix steel, welcome to bloomberg markets. give me a highlight here? guy: i have the cpi was a bit of a nonevent. the payrolls number was significant....
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Dec 13, 2023
12/23
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jay powell is stepping up real soon talking. talk about anticipation, nick timiraos wrote an article earlier this week. feels like he fell out of favor with the fed. he might have leaked a little bit too much. my own personal gauge used to go to him every time, he was the first one. nick what do you want, nick is 8th, 9th, nick they called on him the flex day, like the 18th round of the draft. he went out on a limb, danielle, articulating this. >> he tweeted out earlier today ubs is saying six month basis, core pce fed's favorite gaining, 1.9%, south of their 2% target. charles: what does it mean then? is he trying to soften the runway so to speak so powell could be more accommodative today? >> sounds like he is, makes your point him being little lower in the lineup more interesting. charles: maybe they call on him first today, alli? >> this entire process has been about him being more hawkish than the market. that was as he was raising 50, 75 at a time. now that we're all expecting much more dovish sentiment, and actually if yo
jay powell is stepping up real soon talking. talk about anticipation, nick timiraos wrote an article earlier this week. feels like he fell out of favor with the fed. he might have leaked a little bit too much. my own personal gauge used to go to him every time, he was the first one. nick what do you want, nick is 8th, 9th, nick they called on him the flex day, like the 18th round of the draft. he went out on a limb, danielle, articulating this. >> he tweeted out earlier today ubs is...
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Dec 1, 2023
12/23
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hold on, jay powell just started speaking.e want to go to him now in atlanta at spelman college. >> thank you for that kind introduction. thank you, dr. holmes, and president gail for inviting me here. it is exciting to be here. i am fortunate to have been accompanied from washington by a distinct graduate of spelman college, class of 1986, and a member of delta sigma theta. [applause] chair powell: governor lisa cook, i would say there is no greater testament to spelman's historic legacy then the achievements of outstanding women like governor cook. on part of that legacy is spelman's to dish and -- tradition of education in stem. governor cook's research highlights the role of education in preparing individuals who can generate ideas that will add to our body of knowledge, increase productivity and generate higher living standards over time. her work is one example of how spelman women continue to make historic contributions in science, the arts, technology, medicine and other fields. i look forward to our conversation. i th
hold on, jay powell just started speaking.e want to go to him now in atlanta at spelman college. >> thank you for that kind introduction. thank you, dr. holmes, and president gail for inviting me here. it is exciting to be here. i am fortunate to have been accompanied from washington by a distinct graduate of spelman college, class of 1986, and a member of delta sigma theta. [applause] chair powell: governor lisa cook, i would say there is no greater testament to spelman's historic legacy...
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Dec 14, 2023
12/23
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the green line for rate cuts given by jay powell for next year.s extending their gains today. the two year yield is currently at 4.34%. lower eight basis points. the 10 year yield also fell yesterday. now it's at 3.96%. lower five basis points this morning. you've even got a weaker dollar as well. currently, the bloomberg dollar spot index is down one third of 1%. finally on a day of many european central bank decisions, i'm keeping an eye. the s&p may address it strength this morning. the swiss franc currently stronger against the dollar. so watch out. now it's a busy day for central banks. last night, the federal reserve held u.s. interest rates. its latest plot implying 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2024. let's get analysis from jamie rishaad. i'm sure you weren't surprised by the decision itself. how surprised were you by the messaging from the fed last night? jamie: it was very surprising. everybody was expecting some degree of pushback on market pricing. the idea is that it was too soon to declare victory on inflation. he went even further
the green line for rate cuts given by jay powell for next year.s extending their gains today. the two year yield is currently at 4.34%. lower eight basis points. the 10 year yield also fell yesterday. now it's at 3.96%. lower five basis points this morning. you've even got a weaker dollar as well. currently, the bloomberg dollar spot index is down one third of 1%. finally on a day of many european central bank decisions, i'm keeping an eye. the s&p may address it strength this morning. the...
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Dec 18, 2023
12/23
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everyone heard what jay powell had to say. jonathan: that push got steamrolled by williams and maybe by austan goolsbee. there is quote from mike wilson. he says this is a bullish outlook for stocks. even mike wilson is joining in. how credible is that pushback? lisa: the market has voted and the vote said it is not very credible at all. it is the fed chair thing the client part out loud. he says do not let financial conditions ease too much and he says let it rip. get a chance to say financial conditions concerned him, he did not. he had a chance to say a host of things he did not do. jonathan: are we talking about rate cuts or not? lisa: if you parse through the words some members brought up rate cuts but they are not engaged in a deep conversation. to me it is they are absolutely thinking about it. it is a question whether it is the main tenor of discussion. these are nuances where people heard what they needed to hear. jonathan: more fed speak through the week. the pushback is only as credible as the data behind it and the
everyone heard what jay powell had to say. jonathan: that push got steamrolled by williams and maybe by austan goolsbee. there is quote from mike wilson. he says this is a bullish outlook for stocks. even mike wilson is joining in. how credible is that pushback? lisa: the market has voted and the vote said it is not very credible at all. it is the fed chair thing the client part out loud. he says do not let financial conditions ease too much and he says let it rip. get a chance to say financial...
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Dec 20, 2023
12/23
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will it be politics or jay powell?ou said they are not that focused on politics yet but we were talking to julie -- strategist that say once the denomination happens in a president trump gets it, that's the most dangerous time for u.s. politics. how do you expect that to overlay the confidence from consumers? >> usually consumers don't pay a ton of attention to the election until october. we call that the october surprise. anything surprising in october impacts the yield election materially and that's october of the election year, not this past october. the economy will play into it and prices will pick up again or if there is a recession and consumers are disgruntled, that can matter. guy: the other question people are asking is our financial market strength having an impact as well as just on people's confidence? how does it break down by socioeconomic groups? if the financial markets are performing, that's a substantial amount of money going into people's pockets and makes them feel better. what's the correlation? >
will it be politics or jay powell?ou said they are not that focused on politics yet but we were talking to julie -- strategist that say once the denomination happens in a president trump gets it, that's the most dangerous time for u.s. politics. how do you expect that to overlay the confidence from consumers? >> usually consumers don't pay a ton of attention to the election until october. we call that the october surprise. anything surprising in october impacts the yield election...
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Dec 3, 2023
12/23
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really, a collective shrug is what we heard from jay powell.ve much more to come on daybreak: asia. we have bid moves for this monday morning. markets are coming online. this is bloomberg. ♪. ♪. is $14.63, please. $14 girl, what is you doing? but making smoothies is such a hassle. not with blendjet. what's going on? shhhh. hold that thought. just pour in some milk, throw in some frozen fruit, and in 20 seconds you've got yourself a nutritiou and delicious smoothie. mmm! tastes just like the ones they sell here. and for a whole lot less. i'm ruined. awww. kick your expensive smoothie bar habit to the curb. order yours now at blendjet.com. a few years ago, i came to saona, they told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aq
really, a collective shrug is what we heard from jay powell.ve much more to come on daybreak: asia. we have bid moves for this monday morning. markets are coming online. this is bloomberg. ♪. ♪. is $14.63, please. $14 girl, what is you doing? but making smoothies is such a hassle. not with blendjet. what's going on? shhhh. hold that thought. just pour in some milk, throw in some frozen fruit, and in 20 seconds you've got yourself a nutritiou and delicious smoothie. mmm! tastes just like the...
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Dec 12, 2023
12/23
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and the press conference with fed chair jay powell.u look at what's happening for other areas of the market and the vix, with stocks down, the vix is down and you off -- and you don't often see that but it's at a 12 handle signaling complete complacency. whatever the why is behind that, this is when the mood can change. don't know that will happen because we've been in stretches where the vix has stayed overly complacent for a long time. crude is down 3% at $69 per barrel, briefly below that mark and investors continue to remain notwowed by the production cuts or it could extend beyond the first quarter. the two year yield after the cpi print in-line, yields go down sharply, more than five basis points and move the other way. most yields now are down slightly in the two year yield is up ever so slightly. let's put this into the context of a technical chart because the two year yield is hanging onto support in a big way. this is the 200 day moving average basically on it. when you say security or marketplace wrestle with a moving averag
and the press conference with fed chair jay powell.u look at what's happening for other areas of the market and the vix, with stocks down, the vix is down and you off -- and you don't often see that but it's at a 12 handle signaling complete complacency. whatever the why is behind that, this is when the mood can change. don't know that will happen because we've been in stretches where the vix has stayed overly complacent for a long time. crude is down 3% at $69 per barrel, briefly below that...
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Dec 13, 2023
12/23
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while jay powell acknowledge the fed is at a turning point. of investment strategy in the british isles joins me. welcome. let me ask about the broad-based rally in equities. it looks like disinflation from the cpi report. will there be a soft landing? >> look, the market might have gotten ahead of itself with respect to expectations for the fed. we think the fed will probably push back against this optimist like the september dot plot which contained two great hikes for next year. interest rates will stay where they are. we are mindful that financial conditions have over the past few months and while there are cracks in the labor market it is not enough to make the fed step back from the current level of interest rates so there will be disappointment coming. lizzy: how much can jay powell pushback without credibility? >> can express his message. he was late in starting the interest rate hiking cycle so credibility is not a strong as it could be but some of the variables he's looking at, reiterating the message could help him. lizzy: you recko
while jay powell acknowledge the fed is at a turning point. of investment strategy in the british isles joins me. welcome. let me ask about the broad-based rally in equities. it looks like disinflation from the cpi report. will there be a soft landing? >> look, the market might have gotten ahead of itself with respect to expectations for the fed. we think the fed will probably push back against this optimist like the september dot plot which contained two great hikes for next year....
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i want to get her thoughts on what jay powell had to saw. first, mike between to talk about the best of times -- mike green to talk about the best of times and the worst of times. he's one of the deepest thinkers on wall street, right after this. ♪ tin is in our home, our office, our cars, and even our phones. eloro resources game changing discovery at the world class silver-tin property could be one of the largest operations in the world. eloro resources. a few years ago, i came to saona, they told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud. hello is friendly... hello is welcoming... it's everything we want to be when helping people find a medicare plan during the annual enrollment period. so, say hello to h
i want to get her thoughts on what jay powell had to saw. first, mike between to talk about the best of times -- mike green to talk about the best of times and the worst of times. he's one of the deepest thinkers on wall street, right after this. ♪ tin is in our home, our office, our cars, and even our phones. eloro resources game changing discovery at the world class silver-tin property could be one of the largest operations in the world. eloro resources. a few years ago, i came to saona,...
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Dec 14, 2023
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jay powell tried to hold out a sense they would be quote/unquote data driven. we officially in a pivot? >> this was the beginning of the pivot. i don't think you could say they are going to hike again although they held on to a weak tig tightening statement. it felt stale as soon as the conference charted. the chair came out and said they begun preliminary discussions around rate cuts. he did not push the idea over the debate of whether or not to hike again. they clearly wanted to retain that option. they don't want to have something happen and a shock hit the economy and they have to come in and say we never promised we are done. when you are talking about rate cuts and putting them in the s&p and talking aboutconference, th is a cut. >> you are mentioning a shock to the economy. something to threaten a soft landing that we're on pace for. i want to ask about super thursday. central banks in europe making the decisions. does that factor into the fed decision going forward as they look at next year's meetings? >> i don't think what other central banks are doing
jay powell tried to hold out a sense they would be quote/unquote data driven. we officially in a pivot? >> this was the beginning of the pivot. i don't think you could say they are going to hike again although they held on to a weak tig tightening statement. it felt stale as soon as the conference charted. the chair came out and said they begun preliminary discussions around rate cuts. he did not push the idea over the debate of whether or not to hike again. they clearly wanted to retain...
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you oak with that, jay powell "person of the year"?is naming me sexiest man of the year. charles: again, again? i was surprised first time you won! golly. >> nothing personal but this man printed to nine trillion dollars, created distortions up the wazoo, created all kinds of bubbles, created a lot of inflation, missed the inflation. we have another distortion where three eight, no one wants to sell a house at 3% mortgage to get a 8% mortgage. by the way that is jay powell because he forced rates down. god bless "time" magazine for doing what they're doing, no disrespect for me he is the doctor you go to for a cast on your right arm and he puts a cast on the left arm. so you know where i stand. charles: i hear you. >> it didn't matter anyhow because taylor swift will win the whole kit and kaboodle as they say. charles: my money is on taylor. gary, thank you very much, my friend. i appreciate it. >> thanks, charles. charles: coming up we'll show you how you should be constructing your portfolio as you head into 2024. darius dell is here
you oak with that, jay powell "person of the year"?is naming me sexiest man of the year. charles: again, again? i was surprised first time you won! golly. >> nothing personal but this man printed to nine trillion dollars, created distortions up the wazoo, created all kinds of bubbles, created a lot of inflation, missed the inflation. we have another distortion where three eight, no one wants to sell a house at 3% mortgage to get a 8% mortgage. by the way that is jay powell...
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Dec 13, 2023
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what jay powell says speaks most to investors that are watching? think it was very clear, i mean even though earlier on he said look, i'm not going to declare vick -- victory. i will not take out a victory, but as you point it out fed is virtually finished. they will not raise rates but the question for the market has been rate cuts and what the fed did including powell but also the fomc was meet the market and this tug-of-war between the market acting as if it was going rogue against the federal open market committee has now been linked. the question is by how much. obviously it is not as as much s what the market is suggesting but the fed is suggesting there are a number of scenarios we can raise, cut rates and we will do it. there is no consensus from the statement from the, from the federal reserve but nonetheless they have acknowledged that the market has not gone rogue and kind of gone loony compared to what the fed is thinking. that is very important. we're closer to the end but the one thing that the fed does not want to give up, liz, is th
what jay powell says speaks most to investors that are watching? think it was very clear, i mean even though earlier on he said look, i'm not going to declare vick -- victory. i will not take out a victory, but as you point it out fed is virtually finished. they will not raise rates but the question for the market has been rate cuts and what the fed did including powell but also the fomc was meet the market and this tug-of-war between the market acting as if it was going rogue against the...
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Dec 13, 2023
12/23
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jay powell is not landing the plane.ill be conservative in cutting because they don't want to have to raise again. they don't want it to look like politics. there have been a lot of communication efforts. when i listen to them, i think they are going to get it together. they know. tom: on linkedin you allude to volker and the emotion that no one wants to be arthur burns. tell us what we want to avoid that arthur burns did decades ago? claudia: there were two things arthur burns stated that were seen as a mistake among monetary policy officials. whenever unemployment started to drift up, he cut. inflation came back even stronger and there were a few episodes of this. and then volker had to cause a huge recession. jay powell has long said volker is his hero. nixon really pushed on burns to cut those rates. tom: let me channel from jonathan ferro, chair yellen and vice chair by chair by then, ary pushing powell to cut rates? claudia: no. thistom: remember matt lusardi's on the afternoon show. there's going to be a recession
jay powell is not landing the plane.ill be conservative in cutting because they don't want to have to raise again. they don't want it to look like politics. there have been a lot of communication efforts. when i listen to them, i think they are going to get it together. they know. tom: on linkedin you allude to volker and the emotion that no one wants to be arthur burns. tell us what we want to avoid that arthur burns did decades ago? claudia: there were two things arthur burns stated that were...
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Dec 13, 2023
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it would be better if jay leno talked to less than jay powell. he doesn't want to do anything too drastic to move markets. when we raised rates he was late to the party. that is true to form. he likes to be calculated. no cut here, that puts us to march. he will not give us the pathway to say yes. watch the dots. we will see what the rest of the projected fed rates will be going forward. adam: there are no more rate hikes coming but inflation is still running one point over what the fed wants it to be. how is that going to come down? >> it is slow and steady and i think that is what leads to the soft landing narrative. it gets me a little concerned. one hundred% certainty of recession. everyone us that we will get the soft landing. a little skittish on that. the narrative is still there for a soft landing as the cpi is lower. 2% to me seems like a lofty goal. they will not take a look victory lap at 3%. he will say the same thing. we will watch every dated point heading in the right direction and that may be enough to keep where we are almost at
it would be better if jay leno talked to less than jay powell. he doesn't want to do anything too drastic to move markets. when we raised rates he was late to the party. that is true to form. he likes to be calculated. no cut here, that puts us to march. he will not give us the pathway to say yes. watch the dots. we will see what the rest of the projected fed rates will be going forward. adam: there are no more rate hikes coming but inflation is still running one point over what the fed wants...
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Dec 15, 2023
12/23
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charles: many times when jay powell's done things at these meetings expect street has gone crazy, pope champagne or he has had to actually come back, i think it was one of those jackson hole meetings, actually, where he said, listen, let me straighten you out. >> yeah, and there was a fed official this morning who sort of walked back. if they weren't prepared for how the market was going to act a, they're not paying attention. and i say that with all due respect. there had been weeks and weeks and weeks and months of the fed in general telling the market we're not there yet, we're not there yet, we're not there yet. as recently as two or three weeks ago they say said -- said they weren't thinking about rate cuts, and all of a sudden this meeting comes out, and just the way stocks reacted, it tells you positioning was not where the fed ended up going, and that's why you had the rally that you got for the next two days. charles: how do you feel about this market in. >> i think there's two separate conversations, one is did the fed act prematurely. our job is to take the facts -- charles
charles: many times when jay powell's done things at these meetings expect street has gone crazy, pope champagne or he has had to actually come back, i think it was one of those jackson hole meetings, actually, where he said, listen, let me straighten you out. >> yeah, and there was a fed official this morning who sort of walked back. if they weren't prepared for how the market was going to act a, they're not paying attention. and i say that with all due respect. there had been weeks and...
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Dec 4, 2023
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let's pick up on jay powell's comments on friday.ys it is not the right time to talk about rate cuts. the market is not listening. there is a lot priced in next year. i wonder two things. i wonder how much would be priced in if he said it was the right time to talk about rate cuts. the second thing is will the markets force the fed's hand? will have have to match up to the high expectation? >> both are interesting questions. thank you for having me here. starting with what markets are pricing in, it is interesting to see what is in bonds for november. that is on the back of soft landing talk. that means both bonds are pricing lower level yields going forward and stocks are taking a tailwind on that. on the front, we think with bonds on that performance, we would be looking at not playing for higher yields from here. the economy has seen signs of weakening. we have seen the consumer slowing down and the manufacturing numbers last week have been on the weaker side. all together, it feels the fed is data dependent. perhaps, there is sti
let's pick up on jay powell's comments on friday.ys it is not the right time to talk about rate cuts. the market is not listening. there is a lot priced in next year. i wonder two things. i wonder how much would be priced in if he said it was the right time to talk about rate cuts. the second thing is will the markets force the fed's hand? will have have to match up to the high expectation? >> both are interesting questions. thank you for having me here. starting with what markets are...
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Dec 1, 2023
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we will hear from jay powell later. does he push back on the dovish narrative?take you through all of that and more, it's markets today next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> this is bloomberg markets today i'm anna edwards live in london. mark our executive
we will hear from jay powell later. does he push back on the dovish narrative?take you through all of that and more, it's markets today next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ >> this is bloomberg markets today i'm anna edwards live in london. mark our executive
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Dec 1, 2023
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we are kicking off the month of december, tempering expectations leading up to jay powell speech.t sectors are in the red. th energye space and focus as well as the tech space seems to be dragging things lower this morning. you talk about the weather getting hotter. the u.n. is saying it has been the hottest year and records for 2023. especially if you cowtown -- you countdown to cop28. how many, 70,000? yeah, this is from our bloomberg appealing columnist saying "do we really need 70,000 people heading to this event?" it is not seem proportional to the amount of progress fully being made. it's almost like cop 28 has become the new davos. david: certainly a lot of interest and certainly, i can understand the incentives to be seen at an invent like -- an event like this, it is center agnostic, right? 70,000 people. yvonne: how are they flying there, private, commercial? david: where are they staying? rishaad: in the british press there has been so much criticism of king charles, rishi sunak, david cameron, all going to this massive event in separate private jets. yvonne: wow. that
we are kicking off the month of december, tempering expectations leading up to jay powell speech.t sectors are in the red. th energye space and focus as well as the tech space seems to be dragging things lower this morning. you talk about the weather getting hotter. the u.n. is saying it has been the hottest year and records for 2023. especially if you cowtown -- you countdown to cop28. how many, 70,000? yeah, this is from our bloomberg appealing columnist saying "do we really need 70,000...
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Dec 15, 2023
12/23
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this was prominently featured in jay powell's testimony. more of a bumpy landing. we expect a bit of a decline in growth next year. it may not be defined as an official recession, but still, there will be some downturn the second half of the year. we think they will start cutting rates in may. alix: what you think the data actually is? the labor market still seems ok. retail sales superstrong. the atlanta wage tracker is at 5%. what is the data looking at that makes three officials think we will see three cuts next year? >> they are looking at inflation. alix: inflation that came down that fast? >> it will probably be a little bit bumpy from now on. it may reaccelerate even paid if you look at different measures, the sticky inflation measures, they are pointing to summary acceleration. our forecast is calling for more of a 3% kind of inflation rather than 2%. there will be some delay because services prices are not coming down as much as we would like. i think the focus will shift to the labor market the beginning of next year and how bad t
this was prominently featured in jay powell's testimony. more of a bumpy landing. we expect a bit of a decline in growth next year. it may not be defined as an official recession, but still, there will be some downturn the second half of the year. we think they will start cutting rates in may. alix: what you think the data actually is? the labor market still seems ok. retail sales superstrong. the atlanta wage tracker is at 5%. what is the data looking at that makes three officials think we...
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jay powell is set to ask because the economy this morning.ng the macro story it is that dictating how you allocate capital given the expectations of slowdown and perhaps recession? >> obviously the consumer is slowing and i think the question is what took so long look everything that we've been through this year, the fed wants to see the consumers slow but when you looked at all to beauty, salesforce had great earnings it is earnings that will drive the market and we had a pretty good better-than-expected earnings season. revisions have been increased for 2024, i think that will drive the market. regarding the macro story we saw the fed speak this week. we are even hawks like loretta master and christopher waller came out and said inflation is coming down, what really started this rally for november is the cpi. that came out on november 14 and we sell some information and data from the pce that inflation is falling. i'm looking to see what powell is going to say today. i don't think he'll say anything new. i think he'll be a cut-and-paste tha
jay powell is set to ask because the economy this morning.ng the macro story it is that dictating how you allocate capital given the expectations of slowdown and perhaps recession? >> obviously the consumer is slowing and i think the question is what took so long look everything that we've been through this year, the fed wants to see the consumers slow but when you looked at all to beauty, salesforce had great earnings it is earnings that will drive the market and we had a pretty good...
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Dec 12, 2023
12/23
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. >> the key thing that jay powell in the fed will be watching is that the core number did not move. we are still at 4% so the market and investors that have the belief that inflation will continue to fall rapidly and the fed will start cutting rates, i think this might be an eye-opener to say that maybe we need to take a step back. scarlet: let's take a step back and look at moves in the bond market following the 20 one billion-dollar auction of 30 year treasuries. we bring in liz mccormick. the 30 year bond auction was fairly well received in contrast to the sale in november. tell us what that tells you about investor willingness to take on duration for the fomc decision and new economic projections. >> like you said, it was a good auction, mostly relative to the terrible five basis points we had last month and the three and 10 year were not good. the fact that the government could sell 30 year paper in the bid to cover was better than the recent averages. there is a different buyer base for 30 years. i think many of them are thinking that these rates are probably the best we will
. >> the key thing that jay powell in the fed will be watching is that the core number did not move. we are still at 4% so the market and investors that have the belief that inflation will continue to fall rapidly and the fed will start cutting rates, i think this might be an eye-opener to say that maybe we need to take a step back. scarlet: let's take a step back and look at moves in the bond market following the 20 one billion-dollar auction of 30 year treasuries. we bring in liz...
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Dec 8, 2023
12/23
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wednesday, jay powell, christine lagarde, governor bailey.ek. and the market has priced them all to deliver significant rate cuts. the question is, are they going to push back, and in what form? bill dudley, speaking earlier on bloomberg television. exclusive, as we would expect. talking about what he expects from the fed. bill: people are going to focus on a couple of things. how sturdy is payroll growth? the fact that the autoworkers strike in the u.s. is over and people are going back to work, that is going to boost the payroll gain. average hourly earnings is also going to get scrutiny because wage gains are running north of 4% on a year-over-year basis. it is too high to be consistent with 2% inflation. guy: he is talking about the payroll number there. i apologize. there is another one that was talking about -- pooja kumra joining us now. christine lagarde -- i will get them in the right order. how much do you think they are going to push back on a market that is prized -- has prized significant cuts, and early cuts, for next year. pooj
wednesday, jay powell, christine lagarde, governor bailey.ek. and the market has priced them all to deliver significant rate cuts. the question is, are they going to push back, and in what form? bill dudley, speaking earlier on bloomberg television. exclusive, as we would expect. talking about what he expects from the fed. bill: people are going to focus on a couple of things. how sturdy is payroll growth? the fact that the autoworkers strike in the u.s. is over and people are going back to...
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Dec 15, 2023
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as jay powell said.ted and, of course, watching the data to mikeake su we're getting that appropriate policy. to me the debate is -- it is premature to really think about, like, what we will be doing sometime well into the future. that's not the question that's in front of us. >> that's what markets do. right? try to forecast what's going to happen six months down the road. not necessarily three years. it's not crazy to be thinking, hey, we have, inflation under control, as you've suggested. and that, as governor wallace said, and you've conceded sort of that inflation comes down the funds rate would come down to, what? remain restrictive, as restrictive as you've been or do you have to be as restrictive as you've been? >> what we need to do is focus on our job of achieving maximum employment priceability. what we're focused and. we've follow add followed a strategy get it to a restrictive stance and now miking sure the restrictive policy is getting the job done and as, you know, as we watch the data and
as jay powell said.ted and, of course, watching the data to mikeake su we're getting that appropriate policy. to me the debate is -- it is premature to really think about, like, what we will be doing sometime well into the future. that's not the question that's in front of us. >> that's what markets do. right? try to forecast what's going to happen six months down the road. not necessarily three years. it's not crazy to be thinking, hey, we have, inflation under control, as you've...
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Dec 13, 2023
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first, to the jay powell of it.icipate and expect and if you could take us into the mind, given all the conversations you had with him over the years, of what you think he's thinking right now. >> look, i expect the principle mantra that will come out of the fed and that is in chair powell's mind today is patience. i think he's going to want to signal an ongoing willingness to do what it takes to see through this transition. and to not really move and not appreciably move in any way. i think the issue and practice as you're seeing the market increasingly absorb these largely positive data, positive data on inflation, positive data on labor market resilience, and start to make its own judgments about 2024. i think for the purposes of this meeting, and for communicating, i anticipate a somewhat stoic effort to try to stay where they are, stay where they are and reinforce this notion of patience. >> do you think that the fed and jay powell talk about, think about, consider the price of financing our debt and deficit? m
first, to the jay powell of it.icipate and expect and if you could take us into the mind, given all the conversations you had with him over the years, of what you think he's thinking right now. >> look, i expect the principle mantra that will come out of the fed and that is in chair powell's mind today is patience. i think he's going to want to signal an ongoing willingness to do what it takes to see through this transition. and to not really move and not appreciably move in any way. i...
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Dec 21, 2023
12/23
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this is not the message we got from jay powell.his is not the message the market has been interpreting. here things, the confusion amplified even more with this morning's economic data, because it was all mixed. initial jobless claims, not too bad, a little bit less than consensus. remember for a few weeks there continuing claims were really rocketing up. this had me really worried, this number here, continuing claims got up to two million. it has been relatively flat the last three weeks. that is moving sideways. that is kind of good news for the economy. we have real gdp coming in at 4.9. the consensus is 5.1. maybe the economy is not as strong as we thought it was. the one report everyone is waiting for, leading economic indicators that saw a slight improvement. here i want to show you the correlation, there is a lot of components there. the stock market part of this plays a big role. when the stock market turns up, often this turns up. you see it time after time, time after time. we turned up recently in the stock market, maybe
this is not the message we got from jay powell.his is not the message the market has been interpreting. here things, the confusion amplified even more with this morning's economic data, because it was all mixed. initial jobless claims, not too bad, a little bit less than consensus. remember for a few weeks there continuing claims were really rocketing up. this had me really worried, this number here, continuing claims got up to two million. it has been relatively flat the last three weeks. that...
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Dec 14, 2023
12/23
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lisa: how reticent are they to the idea of following jay powell? circumstances and the inflation wage dynamic is different in europe than it is in the u.s.. even within the ecb i suspect the discussion would have been do we wait another six months before this inflation has consolidated to the downside? see more science that the labor market is softening? they may be tempted to move it up a little bit. the last couple of months have been very promising, lower than the u.s.. they can walk through the door if they want to. lisa: if the ecb does not follow the fed, people get really worried about an even deeper recession and it will be negative for the euro? steven: it is possible but that is going to be lagarde's job in the press conference to make sure no one gets the wrong impression. given all the information that they have right now. i would say the last inflation numbers look very high given what has happened. the first thing i would look at is how they are marked down. tom: is not an easy call. china is the wildcard. what does the englander call
lisa: how reticent are they to the idea of following jay powell? circumstances and the inflation wage dynamic is different in europe than it is in the u.s.. even within the ecb i suspect the discussion would have been do we wait another six months before this inflation has consolidated to the downside? see more science that the labor market is softening? they may be tempted to move it up a little bit. the last couple of months have been very promising, lower than the u.s.. they can walk through...
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Dec 20, 2023
12/23
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charles: jay powell and the fed? realization the fed is indeed regardless how soon, how much the fed is pretty much through with this rate hike cycle and in 2024 we likely see a cut. in our view we think it is the second half of the year, probably fourth quarter, as many as one or two cuts possible but we don't think they are eager to cut because he does not want to be, does not want to go back to the predecessor of paul volcker. charles: right. arthur burns. >> unfortunate arthur burns. charles: doesn't want to see a big rebound in inflation. he was called out on the senate floor about this possibly happening. he said no, i can be volcker. so far i guess he has been volckerresque. can even go further, this immaculate disinflation, soft landing against all odds? he said it in the meeting. he said it in the meeting, economists, everyone kind of misjudged the whole thing. was it a premature victory latch because it sounds like you agree? if the fed doesn't have to cut until the fourth quarter it sounds like they will g
charles: jay powell and the fed? realization the fed is indeed regardless how soon, how much the fed is pretty much through with this rate hike cycle and in 2024 we likely see a cut. in our view we think it is the second half of the year, probably fourth quarter, as many as one or two cuts possible but we don't think they are eager to cut because he does not want to be, does not want to go back to the predecessor of paul volcker. charles: right. arthur burns. >> unfortunate arthur burns....
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Dec 20, 2023
12/23
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jay powell is sending a signal that he is inclined to move sooner than later.: that was lisa shalett speaking in the last hour. taking us back to the question of the day, does politics trump powell in 2024? a lot of investors see rate cuts coming through end economy doing relatively well. great combination but politics could get in the way. we are nervous about what is happening next november. baylee wakefield oven viva investors joins us now -- of aviva investors joins us now. you have a market that could look positive but repricing of assets recently, particularly u.s. assets but politics is sitting there. this election could bring instability. baylee: yeah. we are likely to have a year is roughly split. we are likely to see politics take center stage perhaps in the second half of 2024, but for the time being, it is all about central banks. we see more polling data around the u.s. election, some is tight. one of the he factors -- key factors that influences voters is inflation. but from an economic standpoint, in 2024, we expect a deep global recession to be
jay powell is sending a signal that he is inclined to move sooner than later.: that was lisa shalett speaking in the last hour. taking us back to the question of the day, does politics trump powell in 2024? a lot of investors see rate cuts coming through end economy doing relatively well. great combination but politics could get in the way. we are nervous about what is happening next november. baylee wakefield oven viva investors joins us now -- of aviva investors joins us now. you have a...
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Dec 14, 2023
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but jay powell finally figured out it ain't working.because of the low mortgage ralts left over from covid. soon we'll see a flood of older homes for sale as interest rates come down, potential sellers stop feeling like idiots for giving up their old mortgages and housing will return to much lower prices. let's bring it back to stanley black & decker please. before the fed meeting you wouldn't want tools that help people fix up old homes but now with the probability of used homes finally beginning to hate the market you don't want to sell the stock of black & decker. you want to buy it. because when people buy older homes what do they do? they renovate and repair them with stanley black & decker tools. the buyers ignored the sell recommendation and swarmed the stock for that reason. i bring all this up because you cannot have a static view of the market when you buy stocks. this analyst was dead right about stanley black & decker. now jay powell's cracked the code for making houses more affordable by reversing the hold of mortgage rates
but jay powell finally figured out it ain't working.because of the low mortgage ralts left over from covid. soon we'll see a flood of older homes for sale as interest rates come down, potential sellers stop feeling like idiots for giving up their old mortgages and housing will return to much lower prices. let's bring it back to stanley black & decker please. before the fed meeting you wouldn't want tools that help people fix up old homes but now with the probability of used homes finally...
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Dec 12, 2023
12/23
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jay powell doesn't want to look foolish if inflation rebounds.d hard place trying to articulate the dovish you're talking about. >> absolutely, charles. past two years, when the fed will hike higher and longer market hears we cuts real soon. market will piv so the some pivot we might cut a little bit next year because inflation comes down i think the market will take with that and run with it. they already have, right? they are pricing in five interest rate cuts next week. that will make the fed's job harder loosening financial conditions. it makes sense for them to adjust. charles: how many rate cuts do you think would be reasonable next year? how many rate cuts? >> i think three would be reasonable. we made serious progress on inflation. the economy is slowing. having three show up in the dot plot tomorrow makes sense. it would be one more than the september dot plot. i think it would be interpreted dovish compared to the last meeting. the market prices that in and a lot more already. charles: yeah. i got to ask you about something that, i'm tr
jay powell doesn't want to look foolish if inflation rebounds.d hard place trying to articulate the dovish you're talking about. >> absolutely, charles. past two years, when the fed will hike higher and longer market hears we cuts real soon. market will piv so the some pivot we might cut a little bit next year because inflation comes down i think the market will take with that and run with it. they already have, right? they are pricing in five interest rate cuts next week. that will make...
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Dec 19, 2023
12/23
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what it took was a shotgun from jay powell saying let's go.running, let me be clear about that. it is like keep going, 10 year, 3.19. -- 3.90. the s&p 500 posited by .2%. yields lower by three basis points. 3.9014. allow me to frame the next 60 minutes, you do not want to miss it. on the suez canal and traffic grinding to a halt. the atlantic council joining us shortly. then you will hear from the former fed vice chairman and him come -- pinko economic advisor. and then the bank of american boss himself, brian moynihan. as we anticipate the opening we will catch up with mohammed to weigh in on what has been happening with the fed speak over the last week. lisa: an awesome lineup to give us more clarity. i would really like honest talk about whether people are just confused as we are about why there has been may a cleanup act among some existing fed officials. at the same time it seemed clear what jay powell was doing and saying. jonathan: i do not like the gas lighting. tell me i did not hear what i heard on wednesday, ok. it was very differen
what it took was a shotgun from jay powell saying let's go.running, let me be clear about that. it is like keep going, 10 year, 3.19. -- 3.90. the s&p 500 posited by .2%. yields lower by three basis points. 3.9014. allow me to frame the next 60 minutes, you do not want to miss it. on the suez canal and traffic grinding to a halt. the atlantic council joining us shortly. then you will hear from the former fed vice chairman and him come -- pinko economic advisor. and then the bank of american...
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Dec 1, 2023
12/23
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before jay powell.e trajectory, some of the benchmarks people have. what do you make of the fact that we have been in recession for a full year or so in manufacturing and people are viewing that as an isolated sector that continues to be in a world of hurt even as services continues to chug along. dan: that is sort of the dichotomy of -- mike: that is sort of the dichotomy of the economy at this point. people are buying services, not goods, so we see a decline in manufacturing. this could be an interesting ism. we will have to see how the numbers come out. remember, we had the uaw strike, and that did not get settled until october, so this november number for ism will probably show a rebound from the workers going back to work on the assembly lines starting again. so we will have to shade that a little bit off. a week from today when we do the jobs report because we will have those autoworkers back on the payrolls. lisa: is data weakening? are we seeing ongoing strength with the fastest pace of gdp grow
before jay powell.e trajectory, some of the benchmarks people have. what do you make of the fact that we have been in recession for a full year or so in manufacturing and people are viewing that as an isolated sector that continues to be in a world of hurt even as services continues to chug along. dan: that is sort of the dichotomy of -- mike: that is sort of the dichotomy of the economy at this point. people are buying services, not goods, so we see a decline in manufacturing. this could be an...
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Dec 8, 2023
12/23
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guy: jay powell and the fomc i'm sure watching now.t message would you send to the committee in terms of what your data are telling them about the economy and the decisions they need to make? is the data consistent with rate cuts right now? >> it's consistent with consumers feeling that inflation is coming down and they are not expecting this month at least, inflation to reverse itself or the slowdown next year. consumers have been reserving judgment over the last four months. that explains the decline in sentiment but we are back to where we were over the summer. there was on norma's surge this month and consumers are feeling more positive about the economy and for the fed, about inflation. sonali: our thanks to joann hsu on the heels of a lot of strong data. michael mckee will be holding a q&a with joe and for more analysis. that will be on live go on your terminal. michael mckee is with us now. you look at jobs and consumer back-to-back, what is the read from you? mike: i should have been at the council of economic advisers this mor
guy: jay powell and the fomc i'm sure watching now.t message would you send to the committee in terms of what your data are telling them about the economy and the decisions they need to make? is the data consistent with rate cuts right now? >> it's consistent with consumers feeling that inflation is coming down and they are not expecting this month at least, inflation to reverse itself or the slowdown next year. consumers have been reserving judgment over the last four months. that...
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Dec 11, 2023
12/23
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if you are jay powell, why not do it and be done?it your expectation the fed can go higher and still stay there for longer or would this be another hike with a quicker turn into cuts than we've seen? >> more likely than not, the fed does nothing but the root maneuver is there and i think the fed -- we will learn a lot out of the minutes in the press release because nothing will happen as a surprise. guy: absolutely. no one likes surprises. let's talk about what we see today. today feels like a warm-up act and then we get cpi news. the macy story today, the occidental story, the mendes story is still with us -- the m &a story is still with us. the economy would look fairly healthy. what does today's news tell you? >> focusing on macy's, we've got a real estate investment fund partnered with what's historically been a focus credit fund coming together to take private macy's. it's historically been a graveyard for private capital and retail investors. this one is fascinating. i was just about to go to dubai to go to the department store
if you are jay powell, why not do it and be done?it your expectation the fed can go higher and still stay there for longer or would this be another hike with a quicker turn into cuts than we've seen? >> more likely than not, the fed does nothing but the root maneuver is there and i think the fed -- we will learn a lot out of the minutes in the press release because nothing will happen as a surprise. guy: absolutely. no one likes surprises. let's talk about what we see today. today feels...
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Dec 11, 2023
12/23
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we'll have to see how jay powell takes the podium tomorrow when he has to fly in the face of all of suddenns you have looser financial conditions and that may not be exactly what the fed wants. liz: what are you recommending as you anticipate what will happen when it comes to investing whether it's treasurys or corporate bonds? >> yeah. i mean look, we still like both sides of the equation there. they're both interest rate-sensitive. maybe we get a backup on the knee-jerk reaction of powell potentially being hawkish tomorrow but in general bonds still offer a good value and i think that's what investors have seen the over the last month or so, once we got to the 5% 10-year all of sudden the phone started ringing again. we've seen lots of institutional demand. you're see retail where bonds is underowned all year because it has been attractive part of the curve investing in t-bills where you don't have to take the interest rate risk but as we go into 2024, thinking fed potentially cutting rates that means t-bills will not be as attractive. some of that repositioning into bonds makes sense fo
we'll have to see how jay powell takes the podium tomorrow when he has to fly in the face of all of suddenns you have looser financial conditions and that may not be exactly what the fed wants. liz: what are you recommending as you anticipate what will happen when it comes to investing whether it's treasurys or corporate bonds? >> yeah. i mean look, we still like both sides of the equation there. they're both interest rate-sensitive. maybe we get a backup on the knee-jerk reaction of...
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Dec 13, 2023
12/23
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powell push back against those expectations.th the treasury secretary janet yellen as part of the wall street journal conference, the ceo council summit, here's what she had to say when you asked if she sees a soft landing. let's roll it. >> a soft landing as the economy continues to grow, the labor market remains strong and inflation comes down and i believe that is the path that we're on. >> most recessions look like soft landing for a little while, what gives you confidence that this might be like the episode in the mid-1990s then in the last two down terms over the covid shock where it looked like we were soft landing and then we had a hard landing. >> i agree it is an unusual thing to have happen and it certainly takes skill on the part of the fed to calibrate monetary policy properly. maria: she also told you she sees no reason inflation should gradually fall to 2% no good reason to think last inflation mile is difficult and she doesn't seen evidence that is in grade or waged price spiraling in anything strike you with the
powell push back against those expectations.th the treasury secretary janet yellen as part of the wall street journal conference, the ceo council summit, here's what she had to say when you asked if she sees a soft landing. let's roll it. >> a soft landing as the economy continues to grow, the labor market remains strong and inflation comes down and i believe that is the path that we're on. >> most recessions look like soft landing for a little while, what gives you confidence that...
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Dec 12, 2023
12/23
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the dots are sort of interesting, but it's going to be what jay powell says and how the market really takes that. that's where the action is for us, karen. >> but it really sounds like no matter what jay powell does, he's going to be interpreted as dovish and with seasonality working in the bulls' favor at this point, it seems like we're just going to be off to the races, which is back to the knee-jerk higher. >> it's tough for him. he's managed to outhawk the market once or twice, but it's a high bar to get over for him, so, that to me is the big challenge. >> anything in pce that will -- not pce, sorry, ppi, which is the other part to the cpi, which feeds into the fed's preferred gauge of inflation, piece it together and get the pce, anything that we can learn from that? >> not too much, frankly. >> no. >> cpi told a pretty good story today, i think as far as the overall picture is improved, but it's not really getting better faster. so, i think that's the big takeaway on the inflation front. >> where do you think rates are in two months? or three months? >> yeah, i'd say pushing ou
the dots are sort of interesting, but it's going to be what jay powell says and how the market really takes that. that's where the action is for us, karen. >> but it really sounds like no matter what jay powell does, he's going to be interpreted as dovish and with seasonality working in the bulls' favor at this point, it seems like we're just going to be off to the races, which is back to the knee-jerk higher. >> it's tough for him. he's managed to outhawk the market once or twice,...
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we'll take a break take a look at markets, they're on the move after jay powell left the door open for further rate hikes in the new year, dow industrials down better than 80 as is the nasdaq right now. the word on wall street panel is here to weigh in. don't miss that. you're watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. ♪ (man) what if my type 2 diabetes takes over? (woman) what if all i do isn't enough? or what if i can do diabetes differently? (avo) now you can with once-weekly mounjaro. mounjaro helps your body regulate blood sugar, and mounjaro can help decrease how much food you eat. 3 out of 4 people reached an a1c of less than 7%. plus people taking mounjaro lost up to 25 pounds. mounjaro is not for people with type 1 diabetes or children. don't take mounjaro, if you're allergic to it, you or your family have medullary thyroid cancer, or multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. stop mounjaro, and call your doctor right away, if you have an allergic reaction, a lump or swelling in your neck, severe stomach pain, vision changes, or diabetic retinopathy. serious side
we'll take a break take a look at markets, they're on the move after jay powell left the door open for further rate hikes in the new year, dow industrials down better than 80 as is the nasdaq right now. the word on wall street panel is here to weigh in. don't miss that. you're watching "mornings with maria" live on fox business. ♪ (man) what if my type 2 diabetes takes over? (woman) what if all i do isn't enough? or what if i can do diabetes differently? (avo) now you can with...
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Dec 18, 2023
12/23
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a year ago in the summer or a year and a half ago we had 9% inflation and jay powell was ing compared to arthur burns and you had everguest on here that was telling you why we were going back to the 1970s and here we sit with a 3.7% unemployment rate and a 3% inflation rate, going to two i think there's a celebration and there's a victory. i know he doesn't want to declare victory, but really what that message was on wednesday was we can cut next year more than we thought because we have been -- >> for a good reason. >> for a good reason, and we have been on our way to what we see is a victory steve, 15 seconds. final thought? >> yeah, real quick. go ahead and bet against the fed if you like, but you have to do so with your own view on inflation that is different from the fed's. i'm not saying the fed is right here, but you need to take the fed at their word that with inflation as they forecast it, this is what they, on average, plan to do with rates. if you want to bet against the fed and bet on a more dovish fed do it with a dovish view on inflation and not the same view. you have t
a year ago in the summer or a year and a half ago we had 9% inflation and jay powell was ing compared to arthur burns and you had everguest on here that was telling you why we were going back to the 1970s and here we sit with a 3.7% unemployment rate and a 3% inflation rate, going to two i think there's a celebration and there's a victory. i know he doesn't want to declare victory, but really what that message was on wednesday was we can cut next year more than we thought because we have been...
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Dec 28, 2023
12/23
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why is jay powell taking a victory lap right now? we'll look at what constitutes mission accomplished. we have two of the best. jim bianco and danielle dimartino booth to break it down. a guest says trends on pinterest are terrific economic predictors. she will connect the dots. where have all the men gone, shocking decline of men in the workforce. prime age men are missing. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: so you know every time the stock market goes up like this, right, people get crazy. there is all the talk about investor euphoria, individual investor euphoria, stock market euphoria, you know, for the impetus of these moves but let's talk about this the real impetus this year for stocks have been bonds, specifically bond yields and maybe concern over the parabolic move in the stock market should be focused on a precipitous swoon in bond yields. remember the market is supposed to be level-headed, right? it is the canary in the coal mine, sounds off the alarm when danger in the air that is undetectable to hu
why is jay powell taking a victory lap right now? we'll look at what constitutes mission accomplished. we have two of the best. jim bianco and danielle dimartino booth to break it down. a guest says trends on pinterest are terrific economic predictors. she will connect the dots. where have all the men gone, shocking decline of men in the workforce. prime age men are missing. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: so you know every time the stock market goes up like...