let's talk about it with julie beale and jay bryson from wells fargo. welcome to you both., are you anticipating a downturn still? >> yeah. so kelly, i would say it's going to be a modest downturn. i would want to stress that. i don't think we're looking at a major pullback in the economy, but we are starting to see some cracks in terms of the consumer spending, and the fed is still in restrictive territory. that puts some headwinds on growth in the coming quarters. >> so what would you say that implies for, you know, not that it's where you kind of have to make your calls, jay, but those expecting fed rate cuts and maybe in march, are they right because of the slowing economy? >> you know, kelly, i think march is a little bit premature. at this point, if you're looking for reading through the minutes of the january fomc meeting the other day, i don't think they're at that point yet. i think something would have to fall apart in the economy where you see a rate cut actually in march. could we see one in may? that's very possible to see one in may. but march at this point se