having seen christine lagarde, i'm even more surprised.raordinary, how jay powell seems to have pivoted. he is looking around corners, whereas christine lagarde feels like she is in a different place. alix: pivot party. the data here is still strong. take a look at retail sales. something is not working. coming up, sylvia jablonski joins. this is bloomberg. ♪ ahhh (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after i started taking release, the weight just started falling off. since starting golo and taking release, i've gone from a size 12 to a 4. before golo, i was hungry all the time and con

tom: how does christine lagarde deal?eal with catherine and they want higher rates but how does she deal with the bank here? i have no understanding of that process. jonathan: a lot of people picked up on it. maybe getting some support from that direction, but it is a very diverse council with a range of opinions. there will still be people scarred by their experience and unwilling to engage in the idea that rate cut i just around the corner. lisa: in terms of whether or not they will be late to debate cutting cycle, will the ecb take the same tone? jonathan: retail sales are coming in. data indicating a slower start to holiday sales. expecting consumers to pull back after splurging in the summer. some cash back making people think twice about that, making you think twice. easy to forget hasbro cutting off half of the staff a week away from christmas. tom: it is a crazy season and i do not know what will happen. heart of the matter looking at this retail sales report are the guesstimates from mike mckee and others about n

did lagarde strike a brave note or is she being tone deaf? >> i do feel like powell is feeling the pressure. on december 1 he said it would be premature to see when the policy rate might ease. two weeks later, he said the fed makers discussed a timeline for rates. what happened in those two weeks is a mystery. if you look at the incoming data, i believe the market strengthened in the jobless rate was lower. what transpired for the about turn? there is dovishness for the markets, for treasuries. the ecb is saying -- as the tape showed. she also made an analogy. we are not going from a solid to a greater stage without going through an intermediate stage. meaning rates will be on hold for longer. it means treasuries are going to outperform german bonds into the first quarter. before all this happened, markets were thinking, probably it would be the ecb to cut rates. it does not appear to be the case. the ecb said, lagarde said they will wait for the ecb's macroeconomic projections to see which direction to take policy. it does not look like we w

christine lagarde will hold a conference 30 minutes later.also important data from the u.s.. initial jobless claims duet 1:30 p.m. u.k. time. don't miss that. coming up, recession risks in focus as the european central bank makes its policy decision today. the details, next, live from frankfurt. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ lizzy: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. equity futures in europe pointing to a higher opening. in the u.s. as well after last night's fed decision. now we look ahead to the european central bank decision later today. it meets in frankfurt at 1:15 p.m. u.k. time. markets weighing a deteriorating economic outlook with a rapid slough down in inflation. for more, we join maria tadeo for us. i hope it's getting brighter for you now. what are you expecting from this final meeting of the year after jay powell's surprise last night? >> the lights are not even on. that tells you we are always the first on the field. listen, it's the final meeting of the year. it's been a roller coaster year for the central bank whi

christine lagarde wrapping up her news conference. many investors have been pushing and anticipating rate cuts. christine: we did not the scott -- discuss rate cuts at all. no discussion, no debate on this issue. not everyone takes the view that between hike and cuts, there is a whole plateau, whole beach of hold. it's like -- i don't know. solid, liquid, gas. you don't go from solid to gas without going through the liquid phase. guy: ok. that is an interesting way of looking at it. maria has been there at the ecb today in frankfurt and is still there. rate work today, first of all. let's talk about the gap between the ecb and people are surprisee fed. many people are more surprised that the ecb stuck to this idea that it did not even discuss rate cuts. do people believe the ecb when it says that? maria: look, it's a very good question and will become a fundamental question. before we get to that, you played it very clearly. it is clear this is a central bank that wants to stretch this idea of higher for longer as long as it possibly

i think lagarde is playing -- also remember it is not the same level of real rates.he federal reserve has taken real rates to a much higher level even relative that has the ecb. the markets completely ignored that lagarde and bailey was different and the market has priced ecb almost exactly the same way, in fact, a hair more than it has priced that. the trade here is receiving u.s. dues relative to european dues because the market is pricing in exactly the same outcomes when the central bank's are singing, different -- >> it is remarkable to see them priced the same when the economies are so different. you mentioned a moment ago about some of the systematic flows that have cost this short-term sugar rush we have seen. when you look at the overall picture on positioning right now, is it so long that it seems like it can't continue, or is there that capacity for the momentum traders to continue writing this? >> there is capacity. we run a model and it tells us they have coveted their shots, it predicts they will build further along. that is where you have shots going o

guy: what do european equity markets needed to hear from christine lagarde?hat's the perfect message here? we are getting it under control we will deliver that lower inflation. it is going to happen but it is good to happen later. that later bit should be taken as good news. helen: she has been so focused on this inflation point i don't think she will say in q1 of next year we have inflation. so her saying we will wait but we are going to be certain. >> so a hawkish lagarde is equity positive because that goes against the nature and the muscle memory we built up. >> it goes back to your first point of the why. if by managing it that way what she is saying is we are doing it because inflation is under control we are not going early because of recession concerns. what we are seeing priced in at the moment with the ecb first before the fed is there's greater recession concerns. in the u.s. it is all about inflation. if she is able to reverse that narrative i think it would be positive for european markets. >> thank you very much. coming up we have some deals goi

lagarde stressed that contrary to the fed, no one on the ecb governing council brought up the notionrate cuts. >> we did not, we did not discuss rate cuts at all. no discussion. no debate on this issue. i think everybody in the room takes the view between hike and cut is a whole plateau of hold. it is like -- i don't know. solid and liquid gas. you don't go from solid to gas without going through the liquid phase. this was just not discussed. >> quite like that analogy. solid and liquid gas. it highlights the point. emphatic from christine lagarde there. >>> the bank of england pushed back against any suggestion of the policy pivot as it held steady at 5.2%. it said rates would need to remain higher for an extended period and would remain sticky in the economy. >>> elsewhere, the swiss national bank held rates at 5.7%. it said pressures have eased, but flaggeduncertainty. >>> norway's central bank hiking its benchmark rate by 25 basis points and saying it will likely keep rates at that level until the end of next year. it has been a busy week. i'm happy to say the head of global sove

the had lagarde say we will speak about it soon.n is it in december or at the next meeting? -- for them, a pep take will begin at the end of q2 or beginning of q3. from a markets perspective, those have tightened to some extent. from that perspective, markets seem ok, but i the same time, the pep affects investment is the ecb's only two against fragmentation risk, hence the timing of announcing that after declaring victory over inflation is import. alix: what do you think is the risk of fragmentation? andrzej: very low at the moment. we see no reason for them to widen. in terms of the macro outlook, we are more constructive in italy than in germany. guy: who do you think goes for -- first, ecb or the fed? andrzej: in terms of our house view, we have the ecb and the fed cutting at the same time, in september. in fact, we have the boe going first in august. guy: and your degree of confidence in that? andrzej: it can change. guy: everything is changing quickly. andrzej: in terms of the ecb, it depends on wage growth. if all of a sudden

rishaad: yep, that is christine lagarde. let's get to our bloomberg rate strategist.lly just looking at the whole physics of going from solid to gas here, it is surely a little more nuanced than that, david? david: well, to some degree i think they are trying to get the message off, we know the markets are very biased towards rate cuts. they want them sooner rather than later. the central banks are trying to say they will come eventually, but meantime don't go too quickly for the rate cuts. they are more and second, third quarter they are trying to indicate, where is the market are saying we think they could be in the first quarter, as soon march. i think they are just trying to do whatever they can to push back against that idea. a look at the boe, they really did surprise markets because everyone thought they had a table melting, which means they would stay there a long time, but three people yesterday indicated there could be a rate hike. that surprised markets by how hawkish that sounded. where as the fed message was perceived as dovish, the ecb and definitely the

sarah de lagarde , amazing lady. sarah de lagarde, amazing lady.sarah de lagarde, a woman who miraculously survived being run over by two separate trains , her body separate trains, her body destroyed, but her spirit alive . destroyed, but her spirit alive. she tells her amazing story. before for ten and it might take a ten. looking forward to this. it's been a week to forget for prince harry losing a court case and seeing his favourite journalist called a liar. i'll be dealing with the prodigal prince in no uncertain terms. what next for harry? my verdict at ten plus as their support doubles in a year is richard tice reform uk party. the final nail in the tory coffin? plus the latest polls in america suggests that donald trump would beat joe biden in a presidential run off in a year's time. so would president donald trump in america in the white house. be good for britain? i'll be asking tonight's newsmaker, former government minister ann widdecombe. we've got tomorrow's front pages at 1030 with three top pundits tonight who haven't been told what

he sounded a lot more like christine lagarde at the october fomc press conference and saying were notn talking about the cuts. things move pretty fast and reality is on jay powell's side. there's been a massive amount of disinflation in the united states with unemployment low and growth strong and the fed sees it and they got good news on inflation just as weak as they went into their meeting. they are paying attention to it and it's the message he should be giving. romaine: when you consider how far with come in terms of inflation coming down in the idea the fed feels confident not to signal that the rate tightening cycle is over here, was that lock or was this about the way that powell & co. navigated this policy tightening cycle over the last year and a half? >> jay powell is not the person landing this plane. the entire cycle has at next to nothing to do with the fed. we got the inflation because of covid in ukraine and we are getting the disinflation because workers came back to work and the economy is opening up and he didn't drilled oil or any of the things that need to be done

sarah de lagarde , amazing lady. sarah de lagarde, amazing lady.rah de lagarde, a woman who miraculously survived being run over by two separate trains , her body separate trains, her body destroyed, but her spirit alive . destroyed, but her spirit alive. she tells her amazing story. before for ten and it might take a ten. looking forward to this. it's been a week to forget for prince harry losing a court case and seeing his favourite journalist called a liar. i'll be dealing with the prodigal prince in no uncertain terms. what next for harry? my verdict at ten plus as their support doubles in a year is richard tice reform uk party. the final nail in the tory coffin? plus the latest polls in america suggests that donald trump would beat joe biden in a presidential run off in a year's time. so would president donald trump in america in the white house. be good for britain? i'll be asking tonight's newsmaker, former government minister ann widdecombe. we've got tomorrow's front pages at 1030 with three top pundits tonight who haven't been told what t

christine lagarde -- i will get them in the right order.ck on a market that is prized -- has prized significant cuts, and early cuts, for next year. pooja: there will definitely push back, and the keyway the fed will push back is the dot plot. the dot plot is unlikely to show -- i think that's where markets might get disappointed. i think the payroll number does not change the picture for the fed. i think they are still holding around the 200 mark for average hourly earnings. i think the pushback comes be at the dot plot. it is just that financial conditions have eased a lot from the november. i think the central bank -- i think especially ecb, the momentum for rate cuts has been way too aggressive. i feel there will be pushback, but ultimately after the december meeting we are all data-driven and seeing that slowdown. any selloff, i think, will be short-lived into these meetings. just because markets do not get what they want. now the key driving seat will be driven by data. i think that is where you will see that long-duration coming back

the european central bank, certainly christine lagarde has said it is too early.m the bank of england and even the federal reserve, although they have hinted at rate cut next year, it is not as many as markets are expecting. the us expecting around six, in the uk four have been pencilled in but the central bank is a saying hold your horses a big guy we're not there yet. —— hold your horses a bit. the fight is not over so you are having this nod from the federal reserve, that rate cuts are going to come and steal in the uk, for example, if the pound is weaker, then it means that the cost of importing goods is more expensive and that causes inflation to be even more persistent so that is part of the reason and because of the bank of england is being hesitant, the pound has gone up slightly, so it is hoping it is going to do thatjob for it. thank you very much for that. well, let's stay with inflation and the global cost of borrowing, because as 2023 draws to a close, the bbc has been speaking one of the world's leading experts, bruce kasman, chief economist at the b

at what point do those growth figures force christine lagarde's hand here?, by the way they always say they are data dependent, they do not focus on the fed, they always say we are not as fed driven, we respond to our own dynamics and believe whether right or not inflation dynamics, growth dynamics, labor dynamics are different across the e you -- eu. you have to listen to that press conference. when it comes to the data, she said it will guide our future decisions and she talked about the first half of the year. this is not a story she wants to present as a q1 and we see. she talked about the first half of the year, it will be data rich and we will get a better picture of where the european economies going. you get a points like the one you had today with pmi's, which are softer. you continue to get may be better than expected inflation prints, that is going to build the central bank and get it in a position where they will be criticized as to whether or not they are running the economy and the prospects for it. let's switch gears and talk about the e.u. su

if europe falls into recession faster, madame lagarde has to cut faster, we may go 105 or lower.e are getting excited about that, but the markets may be wrong on that one. >> ozan, one super final one. preview 2024. are people thinking about the possibility of trump returning? are people positioning for that? >> it's in the talks. it is earlier than usually to be discussed. usually he means softer dollars and push to equities. also, if it comes with fiscal spending and in the republican weight with steeper curves -- one final thing, january 13th with the taiwan elections. that is very important. taiwan autonomy may give us a bit more tension and that may be the excuse after the nice rally to take profits mid-january. watch that one. >> january 13th. put it in your calendar. ozan, thank you. >> it is julianna's penultimate day before her maternity leave. >> for wonderful reasons. congratulations. >> thank you. ozan, vice chair from deutsche bank. >>> coming up on "street signs," we will speak to the ceo of banxware, miriam wolf, after the break. hi. i'm wolfgang puck when i starte

kailey: they may beg to differ if you're talking about christine lagarde or jerome powell but the market seems set on the idea cuts are coming in the not so different future -- distant future. while that is happening, the boj hike while others are cutting? joining us is enda curran and marcus ashworth. first to you, marcus. can the boj do that, should they? marcus: they should but they are very skillful with how they do their timing of these things. i've watch these markets for years and they do it at their own behest and it won't be pushed into timing at the markets wish. however, the hints being dropped suggests there is a reasonable chance they do start doing something, tweaking up to maybe slightly above zero at their next meeting. they could easily delay it. yields, which they have been trying to talk up towards the 1% mark, they dropped sharply down below the 70 basis points. obviously today with bad auctions and a few other comments we have seen it repriced up. but, this is a good opportunity, they are in a much better space and flexibility for room if yields do go higher. i think

thursday, christine lagarde, governor bailey at the bank of england.ll be delivering rate decisions after jay powell. that is how the events are going to shape up. today, very quiet. the question, how much pushback of these three -- are these three going to deliver to current market pricing? kailey: that has been our question of the day. joining us now is evelyn hermon, bank of america european economist. if we take these three collectively, the fed, the ecb, the boe, i wonder how much they will all be singing the same tune, hey markets, you have gotten ahead of yourselves. >> it is difficult to imagine them not at least tentatively trying to push back. we are probably done with rate hikes. how much of a pushback can you generate once central banks are conceding that message? guy: if they do not pushback, are they cover up current market pricing? >> we have had policy speakers including more on the hawkish side who have said we are probably done with rate hikes now. that does not mean they move into cuts immediately. it means the next move is likely to

you had christine lagarde highlighting wages and the sticky wage inflation we have seen.ll you be reading for tomorrow in the eurozone cpi? >> so in terms of what we are expected for tomorrow, it is confirmation of the numbers we have already seen, and we know the november numbers have been flattened somewhat so we will receive confirmation of that. you are right, there is a stickiness of the inflation picture in europe that is still something to contend with, particularly with wages. we have seen some of the negotiations still come through, so we see impact there. as you were talking a little earlier on, we need to keep an eye on inflation. geopolitical risks are still around. guy: are these the near time lows -- are these the lows for inflation? henrietta: it could be a local low. do we expect more pickup? no, unless we have more information. alix: do you see wage inflation is stickier in europe than the u.s.? henrietta: it is something to watch in both geographies. i think as we said all through this year, there are infliction dynamics between the u.s. and europe that

a piece of this is not just the power pivot but christine lagarde being hawkish which is helping thewhich is pressuring down on the dollar. the breath has increased. this may suggest it is not as strong as it was in july. this is the members above the 50-day moving average. here it is almost 90%. in july, it was also 90%. now we are at a higher level for the s&p 500. the number of participants about the same. if this keeps rising, it will be healthy. if it should turn back down, that could be a bearish divergence. you can make the case now even though the breath looks good, it is not as good as the last rally. let's look at the rally, not shabby at all. official bull market up 23%. most of this is coming in the first half. the best first half ever, a record first half of the nasdaq 100 contributing to the bigger than 50% gain on the year. alix: we have triple witching and reconstituting of the major indices. i'm wondering how this plays into flows and etf's. abigail: it does create volatility on the day. we are not seeing it relative to the surface level but volume on the open 500% a

lizzy: could we have a hawkish surprise in the language of christine lagarde? we will have to see on thursday. mark crane field in singapore for that analysis. israeli prime minister and german netanyahu criticized russia's cooperation with iran. he had a 50-minute phone call with vladimir putin yesterday. relations between the two nations have been strained since hamas' attack on october 7. bruce einhorn joins us now for more analysis. this relationship under strain since october 7 between israel and russia, can you give us the readout of the crew 10 netanyahu conversation yesterday -- putin and netanyahu conversation yesterday? >> i can't hear you, but i will answer what i think is your question, which is that the two leaders spoke on sunday for just under an hour. in the escutcheon, prime minister netanyahu spoke critically of russia's cooperation with iran. president putin, for his part, talked about the need for protection of civilians in gaza. iran and russia have gotten very close, especially since the launch of the full-scale invasion of ukraine. russia

we will have christine lagarde's pressor at 14:45 cet.usy day for me. >>> eu leaders are arriving for the final meeting of the year. top of the agenda is additional aid for ukraine. silvia joins us from brussels where she is joinings a key player in the discussion. this man has been dominating the headlines. you and i have spoken about him at length. tell us what he said, zsilvia. >> reporter: it is a busy day here in brussels, joulianna. we know this is an important subject for kyiv when they are struggling with the counteroffensive and imminent threat that u.s. support will come to an end and further pressure on the eu to deliver for ukraine. we know and we have been speaking about this through the week. so far, hungary is blocking the 50 billion euro disbursement to ukraine. speaking with the prime minister of hungary, it seems there is no change in position from budapest. i want to show you the remarks from the prime minister of hungary who i spoke with moments ago. >> the first is to get the better late than never. second, why we are

kristine lagarde and vice president kamala harris kept their ranking as two and three taylor swift ish place that's a huge bump from her ranking, number 79, last year. >> no kiddin'. >>> amazon is shipping students home for the holidays. but first a new weight loss drug is officially on the market. good morning, sylvia >> we are seeing some people struggling to get their hands on weight loss treatments there's been a lot of demand for that but there's some good news eli lilly has announced that its new weight loss treatment is available in pharmacies in the u.s. but in other business news, let me tell but this as we are approaching the holiday season amazon and student universe are offering $25 tickets to prime students so they can actually visit their family and friends this season. the promotion actually started on tuesday there are only 3,000 tickets available. an p and if you're worried that you may have missed out, student universe offering $25 off flights booking with a promotional discount i know this is perhaps a bit early, but a very important christmas gift for students, guy

manus: lagarde is desperately pushing back.are just showing treasuring the -- treasury yields around the world. you say that we are going to get more easing from the ecb than the markets because it is priced in at 170 five basis points. what does that do to duration in europe? geoff: i do not think it is about the amounts but the timing. about when they are pushing back. they are starting in march and the second or third meeting and that is a credible view. but sticking with the ecb and one other thing to look at, they announced more qt starting in the second half. will they be in a position to actually execute that and is it going to be ready for supply even though they do want the duration. quite a few music -- moving parts at this point. there is a duration play but to put things in context, we saw three or four standard deviation moves and it will be hard to repeat that heading into january. after a correction the flows will head back and then they truly begin -- i truly believe that the fed will be losing that race. manus:

this week, powell, lagarde, bailey all in action with an opportunity to endorse or push back on this bond market bet for cuts in the year ahead. our bet is they meet halfway. certainly, they will not seek more hikes. neither are they ready to endorse bond market bets of an accelerated easing. why? if they sent that signal that big cuts are imminent, markets will price that in even more aggressively. the concern from central banks is it would make it harder for them to manage the final yards of inflation back to the 2% target. haidi: the wildcard remains china. building expectations on the growth target for next year, do we expect more work on the fiscal side? tom: interesting. china, big export economy. you would expect them to move with the rest of the world. now they are in a cycle of their own, for a couple reasons. firstly, slow-motion real estate crisis, and norma's negative impact on domestic demand -- enormous negative impact on domestic demand. second, the late exit from covid. what that means now is whilst the rest of the world is hoping to bring prices down to target, china

and followed by the press aconference from lagchris lag lagarde. >>> let's get the latest on the market hitting the highs of the morning up 111 points in the pre-market. for more, let's bring in bill veruth. good morning. great to see you. >> great to be with you. great to join you. >> after the dow hit a new record closing above 37,000, how do you see this day shaping up? what is the wex word of the day? >> we are getting a breakout record in the dow. i'm a futures trader as you know with the equity portfolios, but the interesting thing this week is the quadruple move which is higher which is a premium to the price. it has the nasdaq futures breaking out to new record highs today. the s&p futures are within 1% of record highs today. it is a big day. this could feed on itself. i don't see a reason for the market to fall off. there has been post-fed reaction which reversed. a lot of data is coming today from the central banks. you have to stay nimble. this looks pretty good in the christmas rally which may have just begun because of the word of the day which is pivot. this is the actual

christine lagarde today at 9:00. it is going to be the bank of canada in terms of central banking news and their rate decision and to me, they have been a leader, so i think this could be telling in terms of the balance of risks side. jonathan: i never know whether to take it seriously or not. lisa: canada has been important. tom: are we doing auctions later? lisa: tuesday we get isf services. thursday, change in households. friday, the university of michigan getting up there. jonathan: i would say things like do we cover canadian data in the central bank decision and i was told by a bunch of -- that we don't care about canada and that is my take away. lisa: nobody cared about canada except that they recently have looked at it as a leading indicator. it is a quiet week on central banks. tom: let's get to our distinguished guests. jonathan: do you want to do bama and sfu? lisa: i was watching lennon football and you guys are watching bama. jonathan: i get all of these complains about european football, i don't underst

you heard from andrew bailey and christine lagarde, even the boj said it is all about that selloff inyear. how much of that is true? how much work did it really do for the central banks? raffaella: good morning and happy monday to everybody. it's a pleasure to be here. the bond market rally does imply some easing of monetary stance, but from highly restrictive. it's not going to really be enough. we think that 100 basis points is where you really need to avoid a significant downturn in 2025. more so in the eurozone than in the u.s., but in general what you have seen is not enough. it's allowing this relatively long lag between tight monetary policy and a slowdown in the economy to get a little bit of respite. but it isn't a real game changer. kriti: what does that do in terms of the terminal rate? this idea that for a while there was a lot of conversation even by jamie dimon who said maybe we need to pull that rate to 6%. there was folks in the market who said 7% may be on the table. >> i would say by and large, yes. i don't think it makes any sense to really tighten monetary policy a

they are looking a bit risky, but initially regardless of what we hear from christine lagarde. analysts, looking asymmetric after a pretty strong rally. a hawkish ecb could lead the markets to really pare back bets on repricing volatility. that is it for "daybreak: asia." markets coverage continues. ♪ that first time you take a step back. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy. alot like savings! blendjets holiday sale is on now! give the gift of convenience the blendjet 2 portable blender is perfect for everyone on your list. even that picky relative who hates everything. and dont forget the accessories! theyre all on sale! dont wait! our most popular colors and patterns will sell out! go to blendjet.com and take advantage of our holiday sale now. an ever-changing landscape comes with challenges. from our vantage point, we see opportunities. as a top-ten real estate manager, we harness the power of a 360° perspective, delivering local insights

it feels like we have heard similar rhetoric from christine lagarde with euro-dollar at 1.20, for example take? >> the japan economists on our team's impression is they are more cautious than people have baked in. yield curve control will live longer until we can see strong signs that inflation is picking up. if inflation doesn't pick up in this environment, when will it? so they only have one shot at this policy maneuver, so we are expecting them to be somewhat cautious in their approach. kriti: talk to us about other policy tools being used. when you talk about the boj, that boj famously invented qe, and by extension qt. at the time it was invented, very experimental, do you think it is still working? >> the large stock of assets on central banks' balance sheets is squeezing long-term yields still. his acting as a downward influence across the world. when he think about what the start of monetary policy looks like, it is easy to forget that we did all these asset purchases. when you look at short-term interest rates, policy looks super restrictive, when you look at long-term rates, that

christine lagarde of the european central bank has been talking about guidance of second half of thephone potential for cutting rat. look where the market is. they're expecting a rate cut in europe in p april. there's a debate on who cuts rates first, europe or the united states, and we look at oil prices this morning to get a sense of the demand situation out there. prices might be trading more on this opec news. opec announced another output cut of a million barrels a day. when you look at crude at 76, 09, right now, group the highs, is that a an indicator of growth slowing or an indicator of opec moves and what does that mean for the u.s. and europe? >> i think it's more opec moves. growth is moderating especially with the consumer who continues to feel the squeeze of inflation. it's interesting, i know there's a lot of optimism in the market about inflation being down to 3 but that's 3% higher than 9% last year and the big inflation year before. so i think with higher interest rates, with higher cost of living, the consumer is stressed, maria. and while this has been a great year

no, i don't think powell or lagarde saying we are not talking about rate cuts. the market is past that. >> it seems like they all want to preserve options in case of an upward surprise. we have the cpi print p coming t today. it precipitated the rally in the bond yields. one of the strongest days for the s&p for the year means we are likely to see an outsized reaction today if the number surprises to the down side, do you think? >> i think we e could. the reason is we are not pricing in that many rate cuts for next year. if you actually listen to some of the fed speak over the last couple weeks. especially waller who mentioned we could cut rates in the next three-to-five months. if that happens, you are now going to start talking about potentially a january cut rather than a march cut. we are priced for about 50/50 for a march cut and the fed will see that bleed into the january meeting if you continue to see disinflation coming through. that would really shift the market. >> what about the projections? there were two rate cuts priced in. 50 basis points. if we

madame lagarde doesn't seem like she wants to start talking about rate cuts.he question is can we handle it? >> good morning. we see it's in the respiratory level. it doesn't seem enough to bring inflation back to 2%. red cuts are definitely on the rise in 20 but probably late in 2024, not as soon as the markets are currently expecting. >> now, the ecb have regularly referenced the fact that wage pressures, profit margins, and expanded profit margins are the reason that inflation has been so sticky. how do you see those metric developing into 2024 both on wage and on profit margins? >> yeah. that would be a question for the ecb next year indeed. we see that labor costs have soared, now 6% in q3. that's extremely high. so we see a decline in productivity is fueling the higher labor costs. so fueling inflation is far above the inflation right now, and that's what matters for the ecb. companies will have a trade-off to face next year. they'll try to mentor the profit margin by increasing the selling price that is inflation. that would mean the ecb will have to do

walking back the expectations of cuts next year >> we've already started to see that where christine lagardeent of the ecb, has talked about the fact that we can't say mission accomplished just yet we're not necessarily done on inflation because they still have an inflation rate above their target and they don't want financial conditions to loosen so much that it risks flaring or spiking inflation, which would make their job even harder and take back some of the progress we've made i think that's one of the key questions into next week, carl, is powell -- the last time we heard from him was last friday it sounded like he tried a little bit to say we might still have work to do. he tried to calm down expectations but didn't do so. the market took off and rallied. will he be tougher will he sound tougher as they try to get the markets not to get too excited about rate cuts to undo some progress? >> yeah. whether or not that guidance gets more robust next week going to be a huge story. >>> let's get a news update with our bertha coombs. >> hey, carl the chief of the united nations issued a star

christine lagarde. >> greg: international community. >> jessica: yes, it is.ot one person, and senate republicans, whole bunch of them. republicans are freaking out because of the beginnings of this impeachment inquiry, which i've been going on or fact finding going on since they took the majority about a year ago has turned up absolutely nothing. >> jesse: really? >> jessica: really. you should be leading, or you should be leading, judge, because jim palmer is not up for this. jim jordan, site him again, on with marnie talking about what the impact is going to be, driving down biden's phone numbers come i don't know how pronounce his name, what's going to be the outcome of the impeachment inquiry? trump 2024, baby. this morning, maria bartiromo has nancy mace on. hey, nancy, nice to see you this morning, thanks for getting up early with us. what you got? where are the policy changes that came as a result of being paid off? nancy mace. i don't have anything. i said, go get -- i love being with you, but you had the committee, if you have all of the answers. con

madame lagarde is the same way. bailey, the bank of england? probably not. they will read from a prepared statement. the three of us could write that statement right now. jonathan: he has spoken recently. just repeat what he said recently, too premature to engage in a conversation about interest-rate changes. governor waller has already gone there. that is the question that people will ask in the news conference. we know that. if i was mike mckee i would call governor waller and say, thoughts? lisa: even if he repeats what he said, that will be viewed as really dovish. the only thing that he could say now is say categorically we don't think that it's appropriate for people to be celebrating victory at this point. we have not reached it, we are not on board with it. if he pushes back on some level and says, you can theoretically talk about all the cuts you want but we are not there and the market is getting ahead of itself, that will be a signal. anything barring that is a firing gun for the next rally. tom: the statistic yesterday was flat-ish, not disinflat

all of the action is going to come at guidance of lagarde at 8:45. remember, retail monitor had earlier this week show add strong november from that standpoint see the extent to could the government reports. the key question, becky, did the fed see something in the the banking data, the economic data? that made it move more -- that turned it more dovish in terms of its outlook for the economy and the need for it to support the economy. >> thank you. in the comments, watching the euro, may be slightly changed for the week. up by about 1%. looking over five days. >> sure, you see the pressure that she's going to be under. >> now that jay powell, rate cuts coming next week. doesn't come back with the same thing see maybe the dollar, the euro go higher against the dollar. andrew? >>> talk about what's coming up right after this. more economic data including retail sales and jobless claim. the still far behind donald trump, nikki haley gaining ground and endorsements in the race to become the gop presidential nominee. we'll know what her economic platform

christine lagarde reiterating the commitment to keep rates high to tame prices. >> our job is to receive the target sustainably. we are making progress. it's come down from 11% to 4.5%. it will come down further. we have to achieve it sustainably. there's more to do. i'm courage. we've got more to do. that's what we will do. >> we did not discuss cuts at all. no discussion, debate on this issue. everybody takes the view between hike and cut is a plateau, a beach of hold. it's like i don't know, liquid gas. you don't go from solid to gas without going liquid. haidi: i thought that image, a beach of hold, may just settle in and get comfortable. >> could be. i was having an image maybe she would like to come to sydney, where it is so warm. even if central bankers understandably are keen to push back against the idea of a rapid vivid -- that would mean they had gone too far. they wanted to trust what they've done. getting inflation under control. they've got it under control early enough, without having to go to high too fast, so they can get a soft landing. problem is, wave after wave of in

you know, the ecb i think, president lagarde set the tone said we're not talking about rate cuts. >> >> and suddenly the second part of the fed's mandate seemed to come into focus. >> right. the question is how worried do they need to be about the second part of the mandate when the economy is still showing signs of strength? i mean even retail sales yesterday were better than expected. >> what do you, you know, you've been thinking about this, reporting on it, what do you then think changed, if we didn't necessarily see it in so much of the data, what is your -- >> i think the inflation data changed, and -- >> it did. but the cpi number this week didn't get anybody overly excited in terms of -- >> the cpi numbers and the ppi numbers are coming in, in line, continuing to point to the trend of disinflation. the overall cpi number is 3.1%, come down far from the 9% where we were. >> does powell see something we don't in terms of a significant deceleration in the economy coming in the first half of the year? >> i think it's a risk, but i'm not sure they have any data that we don't have

rally has been post-fed and we got in the last hour the news conference from ecb president christine lagardeage for the market surrounding rate cuts. listen. >> we did not, we did not discuss rate cuts at all. no discussion, no debate on this issue. i think everybody in the room takes the view that between hike be and cut, there's a whole plateau, whole beach of hold. >> that was very different than the message we heard from fed chair powell yesterday on the subject of rate cuts. listen. >> the question of when will it become appropriate to begin dialing back the amount of policy restraint in place? that begins to examine into view and is clearly a topic of discussion in the world and also a discussion for us at our meeting today. >> they discussed it at the meeting today. so very different message, david. i think it underscores why powell was remarkably and surprisingly dovish. it started with the three rate cuts that were pencilled in to their summer of economic projections. a lot of people were surprised by that. then it continued with a statement where we knew they were going to maybe ma

how credible is the relative hawkishness of president lagarde after what you heard last week?looking at that pmi data i think it's difficult to really get into that hawkish cap. that hawkish pushback. i am of the view if you look at some of the views with the competitiveness or lack of it, the fact so many big energies being adjusted are really finding it tough dealing with the energy prices are still higher than they were and remain higher than they have been for some time because of the lack of cheap energy from russia. i'd come to the conclusion for the next cycle or two or 10 years or so, germany might benefit from a weakened euro because -- to try nate its competitiveness. we've got this issue in europe. working on that for the european commission. i think a weakened euro could be beneficial as long as inflation can be kept in check. >> morgan stanley thinks maybe we head in that direction. what's your call for next year? >> we haven't got parity on the forecast table. i would actually say we moved to the next five or 10 years, we will probably be more centered than anyth

lisa: what we heard from christine lagarde is this feeling the need to stick with it, the feeling they thinking about rate cuts, the feeling they are not the federal reserve. no one was listening to her because jay powell set the tone and the data is not there to support an economy that can withstand date -- that can withstand rates at this level. jonathan: german business expectations worsening, dampening hopes of a recovery. a gauge of expectations fell from the previous month. analysts had been expecting an uptick. put that together with the pmi's on friday, not a great picture of the european economy. lisa: it is the biggest economy in the region so if it is having trouble you have an issue. can you get the same kind of commitment hold a great sigh, especially when inflation is coming in faster in europe. the services sector is not seeing the same kind of inflation that is inflecting upward. there is a real question about how sticky this is and how much they will be able to deal with more disinflation into next year. jonathan: i promised you an update on this story. bp pausing all

christine lagarde seemed like she trying to be hawkish but it went the other way.cially after what we got from jerome powell, playing up everyone's dovish fantasies. >> it was time. >> ok, jersey girls, let's leave it there. the senior investment-grade strategist. do not mess with these women on this set this morning. they are playing hard and fast. we will talk about this. in the credit world, he would say it spread since 2021. high-grade is not cheap. with that in mind, is this tight spread narrative completely predicated on the presumption of 150 basis points of cuts next year? >> i do not think it is completely predicated on it. i would say, as we look ahead, we are expecting the fed to cut first. since early october, actually. it was a difficult message to deliver to clients at that point. they had not indicated the same kind of disinflation that we had seen, so now we have almost 150 basis points priced in and we are thinking -- we are thinking that the fed can go before the ecb but it will come down to discussing, does the economy fall into recession? is the

number two is the head of the european central bank, christine lagarde, also for the second year in af high inflation and tough economic times, especially for consumers. and number three is vice president -- u.s. vice president kamala harris. she is the most, you know, powerful woman in american politics. you know, elsewhere on the list we see women flexing their power in our industries. taylor swift jumped the ranks from 79 to number 5 this year on the power of her tour, on the economic effect of this tour, the u.s. travel association estimates that she added more than $5 billion to state economies, and, you know, we also have women breaking glass ceilings like the first female ceo of banco de brazil. she's number 24. >> you interviewed philanthropist melinda gates who came in tenth on the list about the state of female leadership. what did she have to say? >> she had a lot to say. for as many women on this list, we are still not there yet in so many parts of the world when it comes to women in leadership. just look at the g-20. you have ursula van der lin and we talk about why isn't

they have admitted they will be easing, but christine lagarde was trying to push back do you think shethrow in the towel in the not so distant future? iain: i think so. that week, it was strange that the fed was pushing back with the economy holding up. when you look at europe, you have got anemic growth and inflation slowing at an even faster pace than in the u.s. i would not be surprised if we see the ecb pivot and look toward more easing next year. the market is already pricing that in. paul: how much risk do i want in terms of the curve in 2024? iain: you want to be thinking about the upside and downside in yields. you now have central banks which have pretty much told us they are done barring a big surprise in the data and that they want to ease policy. they believe the next move will be lower yields lower rates and that should be good for the bond market. we have moved a long way in a short space of time. you want bonds but also the capacity to buy bonds. buying bonds and yields makes sense to us at the moment, owning high-quality fixed income. if you can get corporate bonds with

christine lagarde is a very different central bank governor than jay powell. determined and when we look at the earnings picture in q3, different from the u.s.. 10% decline in earnings with a lot of companies as shooing negative guidance so that doesn't look that great. when we look to asia, i think there are more opportunities there especially in countries that are responsible for a lot of the demand for chips. lastly, australia has seen a strong rebound. i don't know if that's going to continue into the new year. i don't see the commodity demand really giving them the breadth the companies there needed to do well. not when growth is slowing down across developed and emerging markets. paul: i'm looking at the s&p 500 earnings estimates and were looking for 12% growth next year. are you comfortable with that kind of growth or do you think there is earnings risk that could be a headwind for this market? >> i think there is earnings risk. we always see pretty bewley and expectations when the consensus is a soft landing by a recession. i think it sort of similar