lisa: city, i am lisa abramowicz.s now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is bloomberg: the open with jonathan ferro. lisa: coming up, disinflation

jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz, tom keene thank you for being with us.week to begin with. huge economic stream of data including the fed decides on wednesday. inflation on tuesday. market adjustments in december. >> i keep going back to six straight weekly gains. versus some sense we are not necessarily going to see any kind of weakness and the profits will accelerate afterward gina martin adams has been saying is a profit recession that seems to be turning around. you have christmas tree envy. you always do this. >> right now i have terrible envy. manus cranny the article here at 5:00 a.m. on bloomberg television talking about the outrageous price of christmas trees in new york city and that goes to inflation here. it's everything including the $242 tree. >> people had pretty -- pretty idiosyncratic. we are expecting month over month tomorrow with cpi is for a trailing three-month and six-month core cpi to be the lowest going back to march of 2021. you talk about this rightly so. if a christmas tree is $400 it's pretty significant. i don't know where yo

tom keene and lisa abramowicz is down there getting breakfast.a biscuit. lisa: we will catch up with him in a little bit. a little bit of softness in the markets but no big drama after last week. we can see just a bit of a decline in the s&p yields are continuing to go down at 4.20. that snuck up on me. tom: i missed this on the desk here. i am looking at a 4.2069. it brings in an important point. what's the chances of getting to 3.9 nine given the economic data? lisa: no one wants to come up with viability to match them up perfectly after years of zero rates. one focus has been focused on this in the sleeper star, mike downing, chief operating officer . thank you for being with us. why are you so popular? >> i would say the reason we are popular i have been a retirement for 30 years. the first 15 of those years was looking at the landscape explode under regulation. what you have now is legacy obligations. the risks are still there. it is a great place for insurance companies to step in take over the landscape, de-risk the assets and back going w

tom: my strategy is to get to lisa abramowicz. to lift with futures only negative far, dow futures at -35. if we have a come back into next year after month after month this resilient job economy do we underestimate where those tech estimates will be in june? gina: there's a strong chance the market is mispriced for 2024 and most people would say is mispriced because analyst expectations are too high. the market is anticipating close to 0% earnings growth and if anything near 11% growth that will be a second year of an upside surprise. while we been captivated by this data the other half is what is going on with their earnings and we could be set up for an earnings surprise. lisa: part of what is interesting here is people are underestimating the capacities these companies have for hiring. if they see a downside to being insufficiently staffed than the upside from cutting costs. we are now 2 million jobs above the cbo pre-pandemic projection and wear out a better spot than before the pandemic. where do you see the biggest game to

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treasury secretary jeremy hunt speaking with lisa abramowicz. let's look where we stand.tting back on a few points on the s&p 500. help .4%. 4717 after we had a little drop in the last couple of hours. waiting actually for 2:00 p.m. to see if anything happens like it did yesterday. we saw a precipitous drop in the last hour and 30 minutes of trading yesterday. we have the nasdaq up .6%. some companies making 52-week highs, including meta and salesforce. we also had the dollar index weaker today which is helping things. it is below 102 on dxy. coming up, jett mccandless of project 44 on the red sea conflict and the impact on the global economy and oil markets. this is bloomberg. ♪ jon: welcome to bloomberg markets. vonnie: let's start with a quick check of the market. the market does not want to give up on hitting a fresh record. s&p 500 up half a percent right now even after little bit of a selloff for a prolonged dip in the last hour and a half. we may indeed see the record before the end of the year, although we are waiting for the last hour and half of trading because

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this is bloomberg surveillance on bloomberg tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. your opening market on the s&p is positive 5.1%. a three-part story this afternoon. statement, projections, news conference with chairman powell. will he rsvp to the fed pivot party? tom: in the last 24 hours people were writing notes, you know they put statement up. then they put up the guesstimate statement. this is what they actually said. i am more focused on the dispersion of the dots. i'm usually wouldn't say that. this time around, i think that everyone has to recalibrate. jonathan: that is refreshing. thank you, t.k.. tom: i was shocked. jonathan: the 2024 dot. lisa: he's wrong. tom: tom is wrong? jonathan: the 2024., how many cuts will be implied by the 2024. raised on where we are in the market? how much daylight will there be at the end of the day between the market and the federal reserve? lisa: if they say, as many expect, that they will cut rates by 50 basis points, there will be eno

announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.owicz and tom keene on radio, on television in 29 minutes. the american labor economy claims which were the frames out all of our investment believe for next year. jonathan: going into payrolls on friday, still looking for a pretty decent number. the data this week has been good, better than good. let's go through it all. the headline number robust. prices paid, lower. job opening at the lowest we'd seen going back to something like march 21 and yesterday, on activity of, or cost lower. that's what everybody wanted to see. tom: in the narrative roulette that we got, they are lining up out on twitter all the good things, all the reasons to participate in the market. and look at the fear that is out there. readjustment here, there is so much omg going on, it is a toxic group. jonathan: one person's fear, another person's dream. yesterday in the 60's on crude. framing matters. we talked about it repeatedly so far this morning. do you view that as the ingredients needed for this economy to

thank you for tuning in, this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: i am lisa abramowicz in for jonathan ferro. to after enthusiasm from yesterday. the countdown to the open starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is "bloomberg: the open," with jonathan ferro. lisa: coming up, the fed fueled rally continuing or maybe. stocks heading for a seventh week of gains as the ecb pushes back

i am jonathan ferro alongside lisa abramowicz.&p -- up .2% on the s&p. lisa:lisa: we keep repeating this stat. nine point 6% gain on the portfolio put out by bank of america. the biggest gain going back to the dissolution of the ussr in december of 1991. gives you a sense of history and how unusual this type of move is. jon: how far can this move go? michael schumacher thinks the limit is 4%. that is maybe a day's price action. the 10 year 4.33%. if jp morgan is right, that's the last hike. in july, three point 87% on the close -- 3.87% on the close on the 10 year. do you see the fed cutting soon? lisa: i thought goldberg put it well, where he said we are being whipsawed between the economic data, which has come in weaker than expected when it comes to economic indicators as well as inflation, and the momentum trades whipsawing things, taking them further and -- further than expected. do we now hear more about levels and thresholds? it says we will be in this balancing sphere for a while. we will not get back to that direct trade

lisa: i am lisa abramowicz, eight straight weeks of gains, the longest streak going back.right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is "bloomberg the open" with jonathan ferro. lisa: investors pile into rate cut bets. u.s. china trade tensions reignite and warner bros. and paramount to discuss a possible merger. we begin with the big issue, the buying frenzy runs out of gas, maybe. >> this selloff yesterday. >>

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the bullishness is overwhelming. good morning for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. your equity market a little bit softer this morning. the s&p closing yesterday just short of all-time highs. here some of the bullishness for you. mike wilson morgan stanley equities get a green light to ramp higher. citi positive. lisa where did all the bears go? lisa: the latest bank of america fund manage survey showing investors feeling the best they have since january of 22. cash allocations are falling. all of this just shows people are saying let's go. how fragile is this rally? jonathan: this in the wall street journal from the san francisco fed president. san francisco fed will get a vote on the fomc next year. the conversation is changing. we will still be restrictive even if we cut rates three times next year. we have to be forward-looking and make sure we don't give people price stability but take away jobs. that's a monster change from where

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. s&p totally unchanged. uscp i just around the corner than it is on to the federal reserve tomorrow and retail sales. the biggest story overnight, a toy maker 20% of the staff two weeks before christmas. >> it does fold into the economic data and the new reality of an real interest rate. there are structural issues with the toy industry. they don't want toys. my kids don't want toys, they just want apps or cash for make up. maybe hasbro should go into the makeup business. there's also this question of cyclical and the mystery of this holiday season. jonathan: this quote right here, the market we anticipated had proven to be stronger and more persistent than planned. lisa: the question is bearish for who? the toy industry or the broader society considering the fact we are heading into christmas time. it's sad that people are not buying toys but i have to wonder if people have so much clutter and cannot move they already have so much stuff they need to get rid of, i wonder how much, this hangover from the pand

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. i am jonathan ferro. your equity market on the sp 500 time to bounce. equity futures up by .3%. we have had two days without gains on the s&p 500 for the first time since october. the bond market move continues on the u.s. 10 year and return to the data ahead of payables on friday. lisa: especially because we were hoping the job openings data would not matter and then he came in the lowest going back two years and all of a sudden in matter. -- all the sudden it mattered. with an edge of nervousness, is this the beginning of a grind that rose to like it -- to labor market strength? jonathan: we just had q3 north of 5% of gdp. soft landing crowd could not have made any better. you look at the ice,, prices beneath the surface to come up, job openings coming lower as well. isn't that everything everyone wants? lisa: it was a soft landing vermont -- soft landing nevada. maybe this is what would happen, it appe

per our audience worldwide, i am alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz.is higher again after a pivot from powell. tom: i think it was unanimous. there was no dissent. i love the bank of england with the dissent. jonathan: that's get to the decision now. good morning, lizzie. >> they say there is still some way to go. this is what we were expecting the bank of england to do, not following jay powell into the pivot party but holding firm in saying the inflation fight in the u.k. is not over and it is a little bit unique. tom: it is even more interesting what we will see from the ecb this morning. absolutely extraordinary. jonathan: how much weaker is the british economy? >> softer than expected growth data. you would think that would help to make dovish argument, but others would argue it is a blip in the data. the fine line between stagnation and recession is not a great one. anyways a bleak picture for the u.k. economy. lisa: what we heard yesterday was perhaps paving the way for rate cuts in the u.s., but a different feeling in london. you can see yields

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. carol: global shares on track for their best since 2019. the dollar poised for its worst year since the onset of the pandemic, oil not doing so well. a lot to talk about. for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg radio and tv alongside manus cranny and katie greifeld. pulling up the superlatives, there are a lot of them. manus: they are marching out at me. will we get the record high? will we get the last moment of exuberance in the equity market? you have the dollar making multiple record highs. the s&p 500 is just shy. 47 -- carol: 479656. are we asking so much? katie: it would be poetic if we get it on the final trading day of 2023. you think about all the sentiment shifts. a bang in january. summer sentiment was bad. manus: don't forget consensus calls was recession, china was going to fly to the moon. carol: are you reminding those strategists of what they got wrong? manus: i got a lot wrong to be fair. you have to try to make your prediction. t

alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. on the week last week, five weeks of gains on the s&p 500. we are not finished with friday, so let's talk about it. if that was chairman powell pushback, this bond market steamrolled him. tom: it is a sleepy preholiday, the only thing anything was -- the only thing anyone was talking about was florida state. we carried for the risk on field. publishing on twitter, a general risk on field or environment. jonathan: powell was more balanced -- balanced event hawkish which given the current bank drop might as well be dovish. lisa: i have that quote right here because i read that and it was perfect. chair powell heart is no longer in the optionality. we are all psychologists trying to analyze the mindset. tom: you see the 10 year real yield below 2%. we are moving at light speed, this november shock that we had continues. this is a complete risk on moment. jonathan: last month on the month, last week on the week, we had a 41 basis point move forward off of the back of some of the fed speak

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: what a difference a month makes. for audience worldwide this is bloomberg surveillance. alongside lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. here is the big call to kickoff the trading week. david costin at goldman sachs with the new price target on the s&p for next year. 5100. the old one is a month old. here is the quote. "equities were already pricing positive economic activity but now reflect a more robust outlook." lisa: the reason is because jay powell said we are talking about rate cuts but maybe they are not talking about rate cuts. john williams at the new york fed says baby it is premature to talk about it. everyone heard what jay powell had to say. jonathan: that push got steamrolled by williams and maybe by austan goolsbee. there is quote from mike wilson. he says this is a bullish outlook for stocks. even mike wilson is joining in. how credible is that pushback? lisa: the market has voted and the vote said it is not very credible at all. it is the fed chair thing the c

chancellor of the exchequer spoke to lisa abramowicz about the deal and his outlook on the economy. > i would say is it's much easier to do this deal with switzerland because there's a lot of trust between switzerland and the u.k.. there's a lot of confidence in each other's legal systems and regulatory structures. we are open to this with any countries all over the world. anything that boosts choice, competition alstom respecting our sovereignty and ability to make our own rules and regulations. >> how important is this given the fact there of been discussions about financial hubs moving to paris or frankfurt or berlin, how much is it important to get some of these connections or boost tax revenue or keep the banking sector in the united kingdom? >> we have had a lot of discussion post brexit of people, banks, operations potentially moving out of london but it hasn't materialized. like the scale that people predict, london has shown itself to be resilient and if you look at what's happened in the last year, what we've done is ensure we have to be hungry to keep that business that's c

chancellor jeremy hunt speaking with lisa abramowicz yesterday on a crucial turn in the health of u.knancial services. i want to bring you the news around a major deal. harbour energy has announced a lot -- and $11.2 billion deal to build -- to buy winter shawl. it would give the energy producer exposure to markets from north africa and the americas, as well as carbon capture and storage licenses in europe. stock price in london jumped as much as 35 percent, hitting the highest level since january, making this combination the largest oil and gas producer in the u.k.. that is pretty significant. in the meantime, the eu court of justice has ruled that uefa and fifa violated antitrust law by thwarting plans for a european super league. that follows a judgment from a spanish tribunal that warned not to interfere in preparations for a breakaway league. it is unlikely any new league will emerge, with clubs like manchester united and bayern munich opposing the move. japanese inflation is in in line -- is in line with expectations, but we will talk about what that means for the boj. stick wit

. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan jean, tom ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> it feels like the last gaps in trade is on because you are -- europe and u.s. futures are off the highs. it is like the market gods heard that, global bonds on track for the best two month gain on record. u.s. treasury the second straight monthly gain. as for the equity side of things, the dow is at a record and stocks at a record what >> happened the s&p 500? >>it is taking its sweet time. it feels like the quietest all-time high. carol: i hear you are unchanged. >> i put it out into the universe. it would be great to get a perfectly unchanged today. carol: from new york city from the global audience this is "bloomberg surveillance" long -- alongside katie and manus. two more trading days. manus: do we get that record high? and if we do what happens into the new year. there is a wonderful chart that we have breaking all of the surveillance roles but carol: they are away. carol:they are away. manus: we talked about whether you wanted to be in the magnificent seven and can you avoid it? in the

. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. lisa: before we get there could we see a new all-time high on the s&p 500. a very good morning from new york city under audiences worldwide. alongside manus cranny and katie. i'm carol massar. we are also watching oil closely backing off. we want to get to the market boards for you. it is coming after a 2.7% gain yesterday as we continue to be concerned about escalation in the middle east. let's bring in the team. once again i feel like we expect it to be a quiet day but the themes continue. >> you see oil taking a bit of a breather. that was after a pretty dramatic tuesday that we saw. i know we were asking the question about what was going to wake oil up. what a slide it's been since mid-october. it seems in geopolitical premium coming in. >> i'm surprised the 6% is all we got in terms of the repricing. in the past 24 hours we discussed the attacks in the red sea and the u.s. approach to iraq but the overnight news is about the conversations between joe biden and the qatari's. this

rishaad: bill dudley, bloomberg opinion, missed speaking with lisa abramowicz.e minutes to go, the mainland chinese markets go for their lunch break. let's have a look at the price action. pretty much unchanged across the board. even the yuan with a 7.14 handle . we are looking at a little bit of movement coming through from some of these tourism stocks, leisure stocks as well. securities daily reported domestic travel bookings for the lunar new year holiday have tripled compared to last year. we have the hang seng with another 20 minutes of trading left on the way down. h-shares -- pacing the fall back here. the property index, too. little good news coming in with an impairment morning from country garden -- warning from country garden helping to drive that index to the downside. a lot more on the way. ♪ rishaad: this is the focus on bloomberg markets. we are looking at the benchmarks, equity benchmarks in india. recent gains sending these stocks to record highs. we also have the chance to now have a look at investor opportunities in this booming market. there'

he was speaking with bloomberg's lisa abramowicz on his stock predictions for the year ahead. >> itswhich is what this year has been about. the average stock is not done particularly well. it's a strange year for our earnings forecasts. the average stock turned out to be dead. we've had these 10, 20 or 30 stocks which have unsurely well. they've done an incredible job of crosscutting, which has driven the major average of the s&p 500 earnings up in a way that we did not project. that has been the difference. we think that that dynamic will probably persist next year, at least for the first two quarters, ending smaller, lower quality businesses will continue to struggle. maybe by the second half of next year when we see inflation bottom, ironically, that's when the earnings will come back. i think that's been the trick. this year inflation has been coming down, which is usually unequivocally good for bond yields. it's good for disinflationary assets. it's not good for inflationary assets, are basically small-cap stocks and average stock. the average doctors better when inflation is ac

he spoke with lisa abramowicz on his stock addictions for 2024. -- stock predictions for tonight 24.really about the stock predicting. it is kind of a strange year in that regard. their earnings forecast for the average stock turned out to be dead right. we have had these 10 or 20 or 30 stocks which have done extremely well. they have done an incredible job of cost-cutting. which has driven the major average. we think the dynamic will predict -- will persist next year for at least the first two quarters. meaning smaller businesses will continue to struggle tiered next year when we see inflation bottom, that is when the earnings will come back. that has been the trick. inflation has been coming down which usually has been good for bond yields. it is not good for inflationary assets which are small-cap stocks and average stocks. average stocks do better when inflation is accelerating. that has been the trick this year. there were many people recommending small-cap stocks. financials and cyclical stocks. those don't work when inflation is coming down. >> what you outlined raises a quest

this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz.from new york city and our global audience worldwide good morning it is bloomberg surveillance live your usual group is on vacation resting well after a long year. good morning ladies and happy holidays it will be a full monty of risk at this week. we have the pce that set us up for a homerun in bonds. carol: it certainly has felt that way and i wondered during this quiet week there will be a ton of activity but i think about thanksgiving when there was a quiet week and things started happening. katie: hopefully we don't start eating crow by the end of the week. there are no earnings this week earnings season never truly ends but maybe we can put a pin in it. we could see the drama with the price action when he think about global liquidity. it does matter when you think about this weekly game streak whether it continues or breaks that could be the one news we get. manus: we just had a wonderful conversation about all things tech and the 4 trillion call for apple from wedbush but when y

shery: bloomberg economist bill dudley speaking with lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro.at how asian markets are shaping up early in the session, we are seeing that asx 200 reversing yesterday's gains to losses. today's ground be a lot higher by health care and energy sectors. energy, not surprising given the spike in oil prices, on ships avoiding the red sea on violence linked to the israel-hamas war. take a look at kiwi stocks, a bit of pressure after again, losing ground in the previous session. a bit of a mixed picture. not really clear direction when it comes to asian markets, especially since we have u.s. stocks rising. momentum fading a little bit while treasuries fell, the rally taking a breather in today's session. of course, everything on this tuesday is about the boj. bloomberg economics believes that 2024 will mark the end of the boj's yield curve control policy, but probably will not happen until the second half. of a senior japan economist joins us from tokyo. before we get to 2024? what will happen today? taro: i don't think the boj will move today, but i t

lisa abramowicz does not care for a. unchanged on the market. this is very. -- this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. katie: we are simulcast today. i am kailey leinz alongside paul sweeney. we have to talk about what is happening. not a lot of people sitting at the trading desk. we are looking at volume right now, down 42%. you should take today's moves with a grain of salt. right on the cusp of a record high. it has been a remarkable year. kent 2024 deliver anything like what we have seen this year?