with me is luke barrs at goldman sachs asset management. luke, what does reasonably good look like? need some health from two weeks ago which was a stark surprise to the market. i think when be look at what our colleagues in investment research is saying, this is changing from 25% probability recession to 20%. we are not talking about a significant change, but we are also not saying we have gone from a scenario where the recession is the likely outcome from unlikely. this is a continue indation of we have been saying is soft landing is likely scenario and you need to build your portfolio around that scenario. >> 20% equals soft landing, is that correct? >> that is our assumption. starting from where we are today, 5.25% to 5% fed fund rate. i think when we look at that probability of soft landing, that 80% scenario where the economy continues to grow and 1% to 1.5% growth. >> luke, when you assess the outlook for the rest of the year, what is the single biggest risk or the biggest unknown or the black swan event that to derail? >> we need to focus on the fundamentals. for us, the sta