let's ask michael snead from bnp paribas. >> good morning. moves in the market this week and the risk-off return we had is largely attributed to the long positioning we saw in u.s. stokes stocks overall. you are likely not able to get a strong reversal back into it. we think don't fate on these moves. u.s. semiconductors look like the move has been too abrupt this week. >> what could the catalyst be? >> you have to think about it in terms of what's behind these moves. one of the things we like is run a lot of models to understand what's driving the market. what we see is the market trading at a high likelihood of recession, but we look at the regime models and the regime should be trading in a soft landing regime. you have to start to process as we go to the events next week with the fed and non-farm payrolls. we are heading into august and jackson hole. these events could keep investors on the sidelines for the next couple weeks. >> you are seeing a disconnect in the market. the one side is expecting a deeper recession and the other one is n