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Jan 5, 2024
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here is mike mckee.f the timber according to the bureau of labor statistics. the unemployment rate stays unchanged at 3.7%. strength in the labor markets. average hourly earnings up port 4%. average hourly earnings on a year-over-year basis go up to 4.1% from 4%, higher than the 3.9% forecasted. we get surprise in the numbers here. the two month net revision, however, is -71. we are seeing a decline in the number of jobs that were reported in october and november. for december -- for november, the number was 173,000. originally reported as 199,000. changing private payrolls, very strong. people have been talking about government hiring driving this. 164,000 are on private payrolls, up 136,000 month before and well over the 130,000 that had been inspected. manufacturing payrolls come up 6000, 1000 more than forecast, down from 26,000 the month of november. labor force participation rate falls to 62 point 5%. average hours worked falls to -- yeah, falls to 34.3. very strong report. considering the circumst
here is mike mckee.f the timber according to the bureau of labor statistics. the unemployment rate stays unchanged at 3.7%. strength in the labor markets. average hourly earnings up port 4%. average hourly earnings on a year-over-year basis go up to 4.1% from 4%, higher than the 3.9% forecasted. we get surprise in the numbers here. the two month net revision, however, is -71. we are seeing a decline in the number of jobs that were reported in october and november. for december -- for november,...
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Jan 31, 2024
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jonathan: mike mckee, thank you.07,000, the estimate. 150 thousand going into payrolls tomorrow. 185,000 is our survey for friday payrolls. a downside surprise on adp. here is the reaction to it. we were already there, equities down by .4%. we do see a subtle move is at the front end of the yield curve. the two-year is down about four basis points. down a single basis point on a 10 year maturity. we will be talking about treasuries a lot more in about 11 minutes time. just to finish on foreign exchange, just a touch of dollar weakness. the euro positive by about .01% for a heartbeat. brammo, 1.0845. lisa: especially given the fact that adp is not a predictive feature. we heard from mike there was 5% in terms of job-stayers. it is not getting back to wage inflation that could give the fed true comfort. it is not really going to move the needle. jonathan: michael shaoul still with us. let's talk about the economic data. a much is payrolls friday going to move the needle for you? michael: i think if it is anywhere betwe
jonathan: mike mckee, thank you.07,000, the estimate. 150 thousand going into payrolls tomorrow. 185,000 is our survey for friday payrolls. a downside surprise on adp. here is the reaction to it. we were already there, equities down by .4%. we do see a subtle move is at the front end of the yield curve. the two-year is down about four basis points. down a single basis point on a 10 year maturity. we will be talking about treasuries a lot more in about 11 minutes time. just to finish on foreign...
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Jan 3, 2024
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sitting to my left we have bloomberg's mike mckee joining us to break down some of the numbers.hat is the take away here? mike: your good luck with the u.s. economy. we have some good numbers that continue the narrative with the fed may be able to start cutting rates in the first half of the year. let's start with jobs and the ism. it does fall to 800 790,000. the number of job openings falls not a lot but falls a little bit. the quits rate stays about the same at 2.2%. the number of people who have thought they could get a new job by leaving their current job seems to be about the same. no real change in the labor market. these are november numbers. now to ism. 47.4, which is above forecast on the number we had in the month of november of 46.7. sub movement towards expansion -- some movement towards expansion. the indicators, prices paid, 45.2 down from 49.9. that 49.9 worried people but it looks like it is retreating a little. new orders at 47.1, falling from 48.3. i will fraud a question to tim. he said we were at bottom and starting to go back up last time. is that still the
sitting to my left we have bloomberg's mike mckee joining us to break down some of the numbers.hat is the take away here? mike: your good luck with the u.s. economy. we have some good numbers that continue the narrative with the fed may be able to start cutting rates in the first half of the year. let's start with jobs and the ism. it does fall to 800 790,000. the number of job openings falls not a lot but falls a little bit. the quits rate stays about the same at 2.2%. the number of people who...
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Jan 4, 2024
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that is liz mccormick and mike mckee. this is bloomberg. ♪ katie: u.s.trying to claw back gains after those adp numbers earlier today. abigail doolittle is tracking the moves. abigail: up about .2% for the s&p 500. breaking for the future say four--- futures a four-day losing streak. let's see whether these gains whole. they are pretty small. the bloomberg dollar index could be a key driver. up for the fifth day in a row, the longest since earlier last fall. you have new york crude down 1.8%. inventories for oil were fine, but inventories for gasoline showed an inventory built. that appears to be weighing on oil at this point. then the vix not doing all that much, still at 813 handle, but close to a 14 handle. pretty complacent given the volatility we have seen recently. if we switch up the board we are going to see one of the big drivers for last year's rally, and that of course is the fact that the 10 year yield basically went from 5% all the way down to 3.70%, now keeping higher, trying to get back about 4%. if this move higher continues that could pr
that is liz mccormick and mike mckee. this is bloomberg. ♪ katie: u.s.trying to claw back gains after those adp numbers earlier today. abigail doolittle is tracking the moves. abigail: up about .2% for the s&p 500. breaking for the future say four--- futures a four-day losing streak. let's see whether these gains whole. they are pretty small. the bloomberg dollar index could be a key driver. up for the fifth day in a row, the longest since earlier last fall. you have new york crude down...
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Jan 4, 2024
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claims data, mike mckee.he number that is supposed to be better if lower, down from 218,000, the prior number without revision. continuing claims, 1,855,000, down from 1,000,800 75,000, so better numbers overall. i will put in the standard disclaimer for this time of year that holidays distort the seasonal factors and eight it can be difficult -- and it can be difficult to get an accurate read on where we are but you will say not much has changed in the labor market looking at these numbers. the survey week, that includes december 12, the number was 1875, because that was last week for continuing claims, and it was 206,000 for the headline number, so we are still seeing some enormous progress here. last week's claims numbers were revised up to 200 20,000, which would have gotten the retention if that had been the case -- up to 220,000, which would have gotten your attention if that had been the case. jon: it is one data point. let's push it through the bond market. yields at session highs. on the 10 year, up
claims data, mike mckee.he number that is supposed to be better if lower, down from 218,000, the prior number without revision. continuing claims, 1,855,000, down from 1,000,800 75,000, so better numbers overall. i will put in the standard disclaimer for this time of year that holidays distort the seasonal factors and eight it can be difficult -- and it can be difficult to get an accurate read on where we are but you will say not much has changed in the labor market looking at these numbers....
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Jan 30, 2024
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mike mckee is here to break it down. mike: the number of job openings went up during the month of december, 9 million -- from 8,925,000. the forecast was we would see a drop in job openings. the quits rate is little changed. still a 2.2%. the number is down about 100,000 from november. the other number out is a real surprise. the conference board consumer confidence number rises to 114.8 from 108, revised 108. listen to this, conference board's present situation index was 147 .2. it rises 161.3. americans very happy with the way things are going right now. the expectations number comes in at 83.8 from 81.9. really significant change in consumer confidence that matches what we saw from the university of michigan last week. this is the highest consumer confidence for the present situation since march of 2020 so just when the pandemic was getting going was the last time we felt this good about how things are heading in the u.s. economy. they have to be cheering this at 1600 pennsylvania avenue. katie: you have stocks down t
mike mckee is here to break it down. mike: the number of job openings went up during the month of december, 9 million -- from 8,925,000. the forecast was we would see a drop in job openings. the quits rate is little changed. still a 2.2%. the number is down about 100,000 from november. the other number out is a real surprise. the conference board consumer confidence number rises to 114.8 from 108, revised 108. listen to this, conference board's present situation index was 147 .2. it rises...
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Jan 25, 2024
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katie: mike mckee, thanks so much. let's keep talking about these markets. one of wall street''s biggest bulls, consult this -- john, has the s&p 500 price target up about 5200 this year. i'm thrilled to have you with us. they're looking at and s&p 500 nearing 4900. what brings us another 6% or 7% higher? john: thanks for having me on the show. where we are right now, we think it is more sampling from economic data as well as news we are getting from q4 earnings season, that suggests resilience remains in the economy even as the fed has success in placing inflation in check, which would likely imply that the fed will remain on hold, allowing resilience to continue forward. the market likely would trend higher as bears continue to capitulate. katie: what is interesting is what the fed is doing and what the stock market is doing. when you think about the s&p 500, how dependent is your call on what the fed actually does? john: i think quite a bit in the sense that we have all along really regarded that very different than many of our competitors. we regard the
katie: mike mckee, thanks so much. let's keep talking about these markets. one of wall street''s biggest bulls, consult this -- john, has the s&p 500 price target up about 5200 this year. i'm thrilled to have you with us. they're looking at and s&p 500 nearing 4900. what brings us another 6% or 7% higher? john: thanks for having me on the show. where we are right now, we think it is more sampling from economic data as well as news we are getting from q4 earnings season, that suggests...
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Jan 5, 2024
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let's break it down with mike mckee. walk us through what we just learned and the relationship between these two figures. mike: it's an interesting question because the figures don't exactly match up, and it would've been interesting if we had the ism services number before we had the payrolls report, because after the manufacturing number came out, we saw an increase in the number of jobs people were predicting. still wasn't enough. 216 is the change in payrolls for the month of december. on a headlight basis, it looks strong, but you have to add in, or subtracting the 7100 jobs taken away in the -- in october and november. basically what you are seeing is a slowdown in the fourth quarter in the level of job creation. as for the services, services pmi showed employment fell to 43.3 from 50.7. yet we saw a 17,000 increase in retail employees, and overall an increase in service jobs of 142,000, up significantly from the past two months. it's hard to know exactly, but that is the story of this report, katie and guy, that w
let's break it down with mike mckee. walk us through what we just learned and the relationship between these two figures. mike: it's an interesting question because the figures don't exactly match up, and it would've been interesting if we had the ism services number before we had the payrolls report, because after the manufacturing number came out, we saw an increase in the number of jobs people were predicting. still wasn't enough. 216 is the change in payrolls for the month of december. on a...
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Jan 5, 2024
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that's break it down with mike mckee and liz mccormick. mike, we talked to you about an hour ago and it was pretty fast and furious, the market reaction to the ism. now that you have had a little bit of time to think and digest, make it make sense. what should we be paying more attention to? what is the better signal? mike: the better signal is the cpi report next week, but at the moment the fed is going to be looking at jobs, not the ism index numbers. to determine where they are going. remember, that ism number and inflation went down. it is fascinating to me what has happened over the last hour, because we saw this morning the odds of a rate cut in europe and in the u.k. go way down for march because inflation was a bit higher in europe than anticipated. simply based on facts. in the u.s. we saw the numbers go down because of the jobs numbers here, and then when this ism report came out at 10:00 in all three regions we have made a u-turn and come back the other way. so, march is march, it appears, and what i think the take away from tha
that's break it down with mike mckee and liz mccormick. mike, we talked to you about an hour ago and it was pretty fast and furious, the market reaction to the ism. now that you have had a little bit of time to think and digest, make it make sense. what should we be paying more attention to? what is the better signal? mike: the better signal is the cpi report next week, but at the moment the fed is going to be looking at jobs, not the ism index numbers. to determine where they are going....
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Jan 11, 2024
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we will be in conversation with mike mckee momentarily. this is bloomberg.this is bloomberg markets. coming up, european commission executive vice president joining bloomberg television at 1:40 p.m. new york time. this is bloomberg. we'd like to welcome everybody watching us on bloomberg television and listening to us on bloomberg radio. i'm michael mckee, international economic policy correspond from bloomberg then joined now by loretta, the president of the federal reserve bank of cleveland and for at least half a year, the voter on the open market committee. it will ask about that part later the thank you for joining us today. cpi day. we got mixed news, a little bit of an increase in the headline, a little bit of a decrease in the core. what do you take away from this? >> first, thanks for having me. it doesn't really change my view of where we are. if you think about where we start the year, the economy and monetary policy are both in a good place. inflation today is in a much better place than a year ago and we've really seen this discernible progress
we will be in conversation with mike mckee momentarily. this is bloomberg.this is bloomberg markets. coming up, european commission executive vice president joining bloomberg television at 1:40 p.m. new york time. this is bloomberg. we'd like to welcome everybody watching us on bloomberg television and listening to us on bloomberg radio. i'm michael mckee, international economic policy correspond from bloomberg then joined now by loretta, the president of the federal reserve bank of cleveland...
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Jan 16, 2024
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let's find out -- mike mckee. what is he saying? mike: chris weller has become one of the most influential voices in the fed. he's telling the world the fed can cut rates this year if inflation continues to go down, which has been the majority view. he thinks inflation will continue to come down because even though we have seen financial conditions ease, policy is set properly. it's restrictive and should continue to put downward pressure on demand. if they do cut rates, he says however, timing and number will depend on the incoming data. when the time is right to begin lowering rates, he says, i believe it can and should be lowered methodically and carefully. i see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past. p pointed out the fed -- he pointed out the fed had moved quickly in the past. he said that will not happen this time. pushing back on the six rate cuts that have been priced in. he took a victory lap on his prediction two years ago that the fed could raise rates without a big jump in unemployment because vac
let's find out -- mike mckee. what is he saying? mike: chris weller has become one of the most influential voices in the fed. he's telling the world the fed can cut rates this year if inflation continues to go down, which has been the majority view. he thinks inflation will continue to come down because even though we have seen financial conditions ease, policy is set properly. it's restrictive and should continue to put downward pressure on demand. if they do cut rates, he says however, timing...
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Jan 11, 2024
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joining us shortly, mike mckee, and conversation with her.mitting confident that inflation continues to take lower and lower. other facts are starting to muddy the pond a little bit. alix: on the flipside, you take a look at what is happening in the red sea. maybe it is a sign that it will be contain. i find that interesting. guy: we will talk about that also in this program. we will talk about it, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what do you think, fever monster? what about zocdoc? zocdoc? dr. castell has a great bedside manner. so many options. but dr. xichun will take your sketchy insurance. xi-chun! xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! thanks, bro! you've got more options than you know. book now. ♪ >> it's not an
joining us shortly, mike mckee, and conversation with her.mitting confident that inflation continues to take lower and lower. other facts are starting to muddy the pond a little bit. alix: on the flipside, you take a look at what is happening in the red sea. maybe it is a sign that it will be contain. i find that interesting. guy: we will talk about that also in this program. we will talk about it, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically....
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Jan 8, 2024
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mike mckee is looking ahead to that and ppi on friday.week, it is going to be etf's, bitcoin. so it willn be interesting to see what happenedali -- it will be interesting to see what happens because we have the same situation europe did. it is likely to go up because of base effects. there was negative print in december of last year, which means we will see an increase this time. core is going to go down. which do markets focus on? the immediate focus in europe was the headline number, but europeans backed off of that. do we get the same kind of analysis? tom: what is the goods-services dynamic now? mike: we saw in the ism report for services that service prices went down. we have seen goods prices going down some, so it appears both are on track to continue falling over a longer period, but we are not there yet. one of the unknowns is what happens with this shipping situation. a number of economists on wall street have dug into it and forecast in the united states almost no impact, about a 10th of a percent because shipping costs are low
mike mckee is looking ahead to that and ppi on friday.week, it is going to be etf's, bitcoin. so it willn be interesting to see what happenedali -- it will be interesting to see what happens because we have the same situation europe did. it is likely to go up because of base effects. there was negative print in december of last year, which means we will see an increase this time. core is going to go down. which do markets focus on? the immediate focus in europe was the headline number, but...
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Jan 11, 2024
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mike mckee is going to break it down for us.ll. and the shipping problems in the red sea, we catch up with bloomberg intelligence and a couple minutes time. tom: these truly world-class -- i'm not quite sure how boats in the red sea fall over, tractor-trailers on i-80 going out past iowa, but the idea of logistics and transportation being upset is a wildcard. jonathan: have you seen the move nap? two months, 30%. they are looking for higher prices potentially. that is what this market is hearing. that is what the reaction is of the stock price. are we going to see that in the kind of numbers where we are looking at cpi? maybe a few months down the road. tom: it is a half and a skip up from the huge appreciation last year but maybe that comes to something we haven't talked about all day, which is china. i wonder how shipping fulton to a misguess on a better than good china. that is not consensus, but it is something people are talking about. jonathan: coming up next on shipping stops, absolutely surgical in the last few months. t
mike mckee is going to break it down for us.ll. and the shipping problems in the red sea, we catch up with bloomberg intelligence and a couple minutes time. tom: these truly world-class -- i'm not quite sure how boats in the red sea fall over, tractor-trailers on i-80 going out past iowa, but the idea of logistics and transportation being upset is a wildcard. jonathan: have you seen the move nap? two months, 30%. they are looking for higher prices potentially. that is what this market is...
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Jan 12, 2024
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rishaad: cleveland fed president speaking with our own mike mckee.s what is going on in the energy space. that complex showing strong gains for brent crude and new york. these were up 2%. this is down to these air strikes taking place between the u.s. and the u.k. australia was also in this as well, launching military strikes against houthi rebels in yemen. this is after their attacks on ships in the red sea. the news of these airstrikes pushing gold to the upside, $ 2034 an ounce right now for gold. this is the equity position for the region. well, stocks coming off the highs of the day. supporting this is this continuing rally for japanese shares. we have the nikkei up in excess of 1.1%. in fact it is off the highs of the day. it was on track for the biggest weekly increase since april of 2020. that is the dollar, pretty much unchanged. energy on the way, up one third of 1%. elsewhere, every single industry group showing positivity here as well. that is a look at what is going on as far as markets go. we have coming up on the way a look at what is
rishaad: cleveland fed president speaking with our own mike mckee.s what is going on in the energy space. that complex showing strong gains for brent crude and new york. these were up 2%. this is down to these air strikes taking place between the u.s. and the u.k. australia was also in this as well, launching military strikes against houthi rebels in yemen. this is after their attacks on ships in the red sea. the news of these airstrikes pushing gold to the upside, $ 2034 an ounce right now for...
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Jan 25, 2024
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let's get that data with mike mckee. gdp first, because that is what everybody has been watching. up by 3.3%, a significantly higher number than anticipated. the consensus was for 2%, so the number for the annual rate is going to be very high. consumption comes in at 2.8%. that is higher than anticipated, lower than in the third quarter, but still fairly strong. we saw that number previewed in the retail sales report we got a couple of days ago. the price index, 1.5%. on a quarterly basis, the fed has done its job, with the number that really counts is going to come tomorrow when we get the december number. core pce, 2% on a quarterly basis. so, definitely a drop in inflation in the fourth quarter. other numbers that really matter, jobless claims popped back up. they were 187 in the initial parental last time, but now they are 214. the number we got last week was probably seasonally affected, and that is what we said at the time, and it was not worth paying attention to. 214 is still very low. continuing claims, one male
let's get that data with mike mckee. gdp first, because that is what everybody has been watching. up by 3.3%, a significantly higher number than anticipated. the consensus was for 2%, so the number for the annual rate is going to be very high. consumption comes in at 2.8%. that is higher than anticipated, lower than in the third quarter, but still fairly strong. we saw that number previewed in the retail sales report we got a couple of days ago. the price index, 1.5%. on a quarterly basis, the...
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Jan 26, 2024
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jon: mike mckee, thank you. we will go through stocks, bonds and foreign-exchange. 500. the mom market, taking out the two-year, 10 year, 30 year. yields higher by two basis points. up by four on the two year. 4.3365%. nothing in the data to change the conversation in a major way. lisa: it is bad in line with expectations. only surprise is spending came above where it was inspected to be and was revised upward in prior months. that was notable because people keep spending at a time when people say consumers are driving the strength in the economy. how do we depart these ideas or take apart these ideas of more spending and less inflation? jon: not a reason to be hawkish anymore apparently. lisa: at what point is this a moment in time and not something you can extrapolate versus the post-pandemic rightsizing we are seeing work through the system and create what we had before the pandemic? jon: tiffany with us, pimco economist and managing director. we would love your impressions and if we could build on the conversation we were having about pce versus cpi. what is you
jon: mike mckee, thank you. we will go through stocks, bonds and foreign-exchange. 500. the mom market, taking out the two-year, 10 year, 30 year. yields higher by two basis points. up by four on the two year. 4.3365%. nothing in the data to change the conversation in a major way. lisa: it is bad in line with expectations. only surprise is spending came above where it was inspected to be and was revised upward in prior months. that was notable because people keep spending at a time when people...
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Jan 12, 2024
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let's say good morning to michael mckee.r higher cpi lower-than-expected ppi. down .1% with the forecast for a 10th gain and last month it was completely flat. the core is flat which was expected to be a 2%. energy and trade which is the important core of this number of .2%. that's on expectation with a little bit of a higher yield. for the year-over-year number, ppi goes up 1% and core 1.8% and energy and trade stays unchanged at 2.5%. people asking if this is good news for the future, we shall see. the important thing to note is there are a number of categories that are used by economies to figure out what pce is going to be. used by the government as well. if we are in line here. it means ppe will come in a little lower. it's we will start with equities and then bond in foreign exchange. we are still down to touch on the s&p by 0.4%. the two-year is 4.22 in the euro against the dollar was negative but now 1.068. march is too early. is that the fed's view. mike: we could see big change in the data but the data we have been
let's say good morning to michael mckee.r higher cpi lower-than-expected ppi. down .1% with the forecast for a 10th gain and last month it was completely flat. the core is flat which was expected to be a 2%. energy and trade which is the important core of this number of .2%. that's on expectation with a little bit of a higher yield. for the year-over-year number, ppi goes up 1% and core 1.8% and energy and trade stays unchanged at 2.5%. people asking if this is good news for the future, we...
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Jan 16, 2024
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let's get to michael mckee. mike: it's tertiary data but it's what we got to day.erver very just survey covering new york mainly went down, new orders fall to negative 49.4. those of the worst numbers since may of 2020 which was in the teeth of the pandemic, the worst numbers anybody had gotten. prices paid go up, 23.2 and employment drops -6.9 percent from -8.4. you look at the headline numbers and it says cut rates sooner and it says not so fast but they are big numbers in any case. jonathan: how unusual is it to see those swings in those numbers? mike: we've never seen anything of this magnitude. is it because of the weather or winter? is this an outlier or not? we will see when we get the additional numbers like the philly fed coming up later this week. lisa: are we seeing any patterns in terms of deterioration or negative so prizes and some of the economic data is more real time since this is the first read on january? mike: we really haven't yet. the numbers we get tomorrow should be interesting because we will get the retail sales figures of industrial produ
let's get to michael mckee. mike: it's tertiary data but it's what we got to day.erver very just survey covering new york mainly went down, new orders fall to negative 49.4. those of the worst numbers since may of 2020 which was in the teeth of the pandemic, the worst numbers anybody had gotten. prices paid go up, 23.2 and employment drops -6.9 percent from -8.4. you look at the headline numbers and it says cut rates sooner and it says not so fast but they are big numbers in any case. jonathan:...
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Jan 18, 2024
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bloomberg's michael mckee is joining us. what do you think? mike: if you go by what the fed is saying we are not having a landing. you go back to the beige book yesterday the main line was that there was little or no change in economic activity. but he said the fourth quarter would be slower than the gang busters third. also, little or no change in employment. we know that. we keep getting additional jobs. chris wallace this week said cuts are coming, but methodically and carefully, and raphael bostic this morning said cuts in the third quarter, but would not want to cut and then have to raise. the fed is saying, right now we see a strong economy and we are going to be cautious about it and we are not going to rush in to declare a soft landing and act on it. guy: is a no landing good for stocks are bad for stocks? on one hand you could say you have a strong u.s. economy. that should be good for stocks. but if you back out the rate cuts that should be bad for stocks. which is it? >> that is the troubling sign we have seen. overall there are goo
bloomberg's michael mckee is joining us. what do you think? mike: if you go by what the fed is saying we are not having a landing. you go back to the beige book yesterday the main line was that there was little or no change in economic activity. but he said the fourth quarter would be slower than the gang busters third. also, little or no change in employment. we know that. we keep getting additional jobs. chris wallace this week said cuts are coming, but methodically and carefully, and raphael...
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Jan 19, 2024
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mike: it's kind of hard to say it will change anybody's minds.t this point, we know the retail sales numbers came in reasonably good. the michigan numbers are not going to change people's views of whether or not the economy will continue getting better. the idea of the inflation numbers may be a little bit of an issue for the fed but probably not. they've look beyond this and they know it goes up and down a little bit. since we are seeing gas prices continue to come down, we thank you for that. we are seeing an improvement and we see improvement in the median five year inflation numbers which comes down to 2.8. not too bad in people's household finances, the idea that they are better, 40%-33% from the month before. at this point, it's marginally better. overall, it's the kind of number that's better than we have seen. people are starting to feel better as inflation comes down. guy: can we call this number a goldilocks number? the consumer sees inflation coming down and feels better, that seems logical to me. i don't think it changes much but that
mike: it's kind of hard to say it will change anybody's minds.t this point, we know the retail sales numbers came in reasonably good. the michigan numbers are not going to change people's views of whether or not the economy will continue getting better. the idea of the inflation numbers may be a little bit of an issue for the fed but probably not. they've look beyond this and they know it goes up and down a little bit. since we are seeing gas prices continue to come down, we thank you for that....
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Jan 9, 2024
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michael mckee joins us now. let's look ahead to cpi. mike: let's get trade balance out of the way. first estimate but it tells us that the trade deficit is little changed, probably as a big impact on fourth-quarter growth. we will see what happens when we get december figures. cpi is going to be interesting this week. we talked about that we are expecting a month over month rate that would push up the year-over-year rates. the fed will look past that and look at the core rate and see that it is forecast to be unchanged. that would move the year-over-year number down. how to the markets look at it? tom: there is a blistering note this morning about europe. he is modeling 1.9% inflation. do we have the same pressure with the fed? mike: i'm hard-pressed to judge how much pressure christine lagarde is facing because there's always pressure but i don't think the fed is fit facing a lot of pressure yet. the pressure may build is the election year goes on. democrats will want the fed to cut rates sooner to help joe biden and we know that donald trump not shy about telling jay powell what
michael mckee joins us now. let's look ahead to cpi. mike: let's get trade balance out of the way. first estimate but it tells us that the trade deficit is little changed, probably as a big impact on fourth-quarter growth. we will see what happens when we get december figures. cpi is going to be interesting this week. we talked about that we are expecting a month over month rate that would push up the year-over-year rates. the fed will look past that and look at the core rate and see that it is...