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May 21, 2024
05/24
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that's why when you see nfib's numbers, that's when you see a report from alignable came out earlier this year, 43% of their survey respondents can't pay their rent, this is what it is all about. the backbone of this country is struggling and we need to lift them up. charles: i got to tell you this push by the white house with unions, paying unions exorbitant amounts of money, it is just not helping. i have less than a minute 240 go. i have to ask you about this. this is right up your alley. i rarely ever quote "the washington post" but here's a headline for you, exactly how stupid was what openai did to scarlett johansson. we ranked it on our list of the seven most boneheaded cell phones by technology companies. this is a big deal. it is not just scarlett johansson. actors, one of the reasons i think they were going on strike. this is, this is scary stuff, no? >> yeah, who would have thought that scarlett johansson was going to be the leading defender of our individual rights in the digital age. she went after disney with black widow and streaming rights. now she is going after open
that's why when you see nfib's numbers, that's when you see a report from alignable came out earlier this year, 43% of their survey respondents can't pay their rent, this is what it is all about. the backbone of this country is struggling and we need to lift them up. charles: i got to tell you this push by the white house with unions, paying unions exorbitant amounts of money, it is just not helping. i have less than a minute 240 go. i have to ask you about this. this is right up your alley. i...
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May 14, 2024
05/24
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line number jumped roughly 6% at an annual rate, then there is the small business sentiment from the nfib, continues to hover nearly 20% below levels during the trump years. today president biden comes out with a bunch of new tariffs on china, i were concluding electric vehicles and steel products that americans hardly buy any. we already have 40 to 50% type tariffs on most of these products plus numerous anti-dumping provisions that were put into place during the trump years. there were no countermoves or strategies to help american exporters or u.s. business ownersship in china. no demands made to stop intellectual property theft or the forced transfer of technology or nothing to mandate china purchases of american farm or other commodities, nothing. the bidens did not address the problem of cheap chinese cars manufactured in china but exported under the radar screen from mexico to avoid u.s. mca tariff and domestic content provisions. most importantly right now, no biden attempts to stop china from importing iranian and russian oil, not a peep. that broke all the sanctions, essentially
line number jumped roughly 6% at an annual rate, then there is the small business sentiment from the nfib, continues to hover nearly 20% below levels during the trump years. today president biden comes out with a bunch of new tariffs on china, i were concluding electric vehicles and steel products that americans hardly buy any. we already have 40 to 50% type tariffs on most of these products plus numerous anti-dumping provisions that were put into place during the trump years. there were no...
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May 27, 2024
05/24
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. >> charles: you know, it's interesting when you look at the nfib -- homebuilders roared and, of course, i think -- in the markets know that at least these tax rates will stay in place that could be something that offers a fervent between no and that election time, new people smacked of people just hold on by the fact that it could get top euro? >> i think you need to own things that are tied to inflation. excalibar marble approach -- where we are on some commodities. we bought more commodities on the last week and i think you can still own -- at the end of the day it can -- attend her -- the fed -- doesn't matter, the market believes that. and the money flows are still buying dips them actually set up near her -- here near term is still bullish from an equity perspective recall as of what's happening economically so until dynamics change, and i think the market still going to go up so we are still tactically bullish. we do own a lot of inflation assets because i think them either is the easiest way because i think consensus whether you're bullish or bearish his inflation will persist a
. >> charles: you know, it's interesting when you look at the nfib -- homebuilders roared and, of course, i think -- in the markets know that at least these tax rates will stay in place that could be something that offers a fervent between no and that election time, new people smacked of people just hold on by the fact that it could get top euro? >> i think you need to own things that are tied to inflation. excalibar marble approach -- where we are on some commodities. we bought...
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May 29, 2024
05/24
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market exploded nfib exploded. any metric that measures animal spirits within the business and investment community soared. would i suspect this would be the same thing this time around as well? >> the thing i will say you, charles, this is actually a bad thing. i know investors want to see yield. charles: some want to see yield, but to your point, bond yields are higher last two days and the stock market is getting hammered. >> the reason i suspect this is the case, biden as 7.32025 trillion budget, he will spend and spend and spend. he will expect an accommodative fed. we're pushing rate cuts so much. has anyone stopped to say why, why are we pushing rate cuts? they keep telling market is strong, why do we need rate cuts? what this is telling me we're in the position if we do not keep stimulating if we don't have easy modern monetary theory, our economy will crash. it has been built so high on lower for longer it can't sustain higher for longer, it has to cut. that is the beginning of a debt spiral and collapse o
market exploded nfib exploded. any metric that measures animal spirits within the business and investment community soared. would i suspect this would be the same thing this time around as well? >> the thing i will say you, charles, this is actually a bad thing. i know investors want to see yield. charles: some want to see yield, but to your point, bond yields are higher last two days and the stock market is getting hammered. >> the reason i suspect this is the case, biden as...
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May 17, 2024
05/24
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so let me just really quickly, because this is going to boggle the mind, nfib small business optimism, missed. producer price index came in a hot hotter than expected. advanced retail sales, a big disaster. empire state, that's new york area manufacturing, a miss. consumer price index, same as a year ago. national association of home builders, that was a big miss if on their sentiment. philadelphia fed, that was a huge miss. building permits and starts were down and industrial production missed the mark. so, you know, yet to a degree maybe earnings helped. certainly, let's face it too, you know, the earnings situation is one now that there's a shift, right, from growth and being able to say, hey, you know, the earnings because of pricing power, and now the focus is on how well management can navigate dark clouds of inflation above. and nobody, nobody's talking about price power, folks. and yet risk appetite, hook at this, it is erupting. everyone has a lot of risk appetite these days. remember the fear and greed index? well, it's moving pretty quickly. just a month ago it was nestled
so let me just really quickly, because this is going to boggle the mind, nfib small business optimism, missed. producer price index came in a hot hotter than expected. advanced retail sales, a big disaster. empire state, that's new york area manufacturing, a miss. consumer price index, same as a year ago. national association of home builders, that was a big miss if on their sentiment. philadelphia fed, that was a huge miss. building permits and starts were down and industrial production missed...
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May 16, 2024
05/24
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one of the things that we're tracking is the nfib and small business hiring optimism -- charles: let me just highlight this for the audience, right, because the number's starting to free paul, right? the last -- freefall. these are small businesses' plans to hire, they're just not planning to hire as much as they were. >> correct. like bigger companies, during earnings they're discussing layoffs. well, they have a footprint that they can compress margins and get by without the lack of optimism that small businesses have. if you've got one location, you don't have the same power as the footprint yo you might have multiple locations, multiple stores. charles: right. how much of a canary in the coal mine is this for the overall employee? >> well, small businesses employ the majority of the economy, so the worse this gets, the worse things could get. charles: delinquencies, this number out today -- i mean, this week. so we knew credit cards were really starting to explode. >> right. charles: you broke down by age and income, it would be even a lot higher. >> correct. charles: you say kee
one of the things that we're tracking is the nfib and small business hiring optimism -- charles: let me just highlight this for the audience, right, because the number's starting to free paul, right? the last -- freefall. these are small businesses' plans to hire, they're just not planning to hire as much as they were. >> correct. like bigger companies, during earnings they're discussing layoffs. well, they have a footprint that they can compress margins and get by without the lack of...
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May 14, 2024
05/24
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we can see this already a little bit in terms of, for example, the nfib price plans moving down on trend and so i think that is going to help in terms of that next phase of reducing inflation, but at the same time overall the consumer is still doing pretty well and it's going to be slow progress overall this year. >> sara, thank you. >>> still ahead this morning billionaire and meta ceo mark zuckerberg turns 40 today. we'll tell you about his big birthday gift and his wealth. >>> check out shares of flutter, the gaming operator and owner of fan dual announcing it expects to meet a full outlook swing against its u.s. books in march due to successful march madness bets. shares are lower on that news. we're back in just a moment. >>> i came to the u.s. as an immigrant and started here in college as an undergrad and came to work at morning star out of college and i worked my way up the firm and i think the best lesson is, that a combination of hard work, entrepreneurship, and just contributing to society does lead to great outcomes. in my view the american dream is alive and well and thrivin
we can see this already a little bit in terms of, for example, the nfib price plans moving down on trend and so i think that is going to help in terms of that next phase of reducing inflation, but at the same time overall the consumer is still doing pretty well and it's going to be slow progress overall this year. >> sara, thank you. >>> still ahead this morning billionaire and meta ceo mark zuckerberg turns 40 today. we'll tell you about his big birthday gift and his wealth....
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May 1, 2024
05/24
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you couple that with small business optimism from nfib, below the average for 27 months and in the fourth percentile it's really low. so small business optimism is low, consumer optimism is low and declining, right so we have to watch that, because that is the engine of the economy, to your point. >> meantime, the pullback we had after a near 30% gain for 5 months still reasonable to you >> still reasonable. >> what's the real test? >> it's interesting wi, the last few days we've taken the 20 day moving average now starting to pierce the 50 day moving average from above never a good sign when that happens so probably short term pressure at play when that happens a lot of blue sky between the 50 and 200 day we have to go down to. to us it looks like you could see a correction down to the 4800, level, 4750, 4850, somewhere in that range. which would be a material nice correction we're exactly six months in. we started this rally november 1, it's may 1, exactly six months into this strong rally. it probably is time to take the pressure off, particularly with what the dollar is doing and rate
you couple that with small business optimism from nfib, below the average for 27 months and in the fourth percentile it's really low. so small business optimism is low, consumer optimism is low and declining, right so we have to watch that, because that is the engine of the economy, to your point. >> meantime, the pullback we had after a near 30% gain for 5 months still reasonable to you >> still reasonable. >> what's the real test? >> it's interesting wi, the last few...
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May 3, 2024
05/24
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arguing for a somewhat lower number and some easing in the jolts report and other indicators like the nfib small business survey and home base. it may come this month, guys, but the under, talking about betting with the derby coming up, the under has been a bad bet for four months running now. >> how does adp -- >> 192. >> how are they doing versus accuracy? >> not been doing great. >> that was a stronger number. little bit stronger. >> little bit stronger than expected. it seems like, again, this is more sort of post pandemic stuff where it is, like, we don't quite understand other -- along with this immigration issue, where there is more people in the country and they seem to be fulfilling jobs that are needed. >> when you are worried about stagflation, even though i think the market will be fine today, you're worried about it -- >> who is worried about -- >> we talk about it. if you are, if you are -- but if you are, either side of this becomes a problem. if it is too strong, you're worried about inflation. if it is too weak, you're worried about a slowdown. >> i don't know where the st
arguing for a somewhat lower number and some easing in the jolts report and other indicators like the nfib small business survey and home base. it may come this month, guys, but the under, talking about betting with the derby coming up, the under has been a bad bet for four months running now. >> how does adp -- >> 192. >> how are they doing versus accuracy? >> not been doing great. >> that was a stronger number. little bit stronger. >> little bit stronger...