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Apr 11, 2024
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then it was shelby say i know paul volcker and you're no paul volcker.rying to be alan greenspan. he is not trying to be paul volcker. trying to assuage the investing class, not americans who are dealing with inflation. >> the investor class or less charitiably other interests in washington. james o'keefe came out with this investigative hidden camera interview with a fed economist. it looks like they have got a finger on the scale. so you know, this is really, i think the fed's credibility is on the line both their credibility in terms of fighting inflation. their credibility in terms of generally politically neutral. charles: quickly, before i let you go, speaking of the federal government, cbo coming out with first quarter deficit. a month ago they said, for the whole year we would be at 1.5 trillion. the current runway is four trillion. getting to the point, so absurd, a trillion here, a trillion there, who cares? >> it really is. and you know i think what's most distressing to people, there is no help on the way. it is a uniparty, bipartisan operati
then it was shelby say i know paul volcker and you're no paul volcker.rying to be alan greenspan. he is not trying to be paul volcker. trying to assuage the investing class, not americans who are dealing with inflation. >> the investor class or less charitiably other interests in washington. james o'keefe came out with this investigative hidden camera interview with a fed economist. it looks like they have got a finger on the scale. so you know, this is really, i think the fed's...
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Apr 16, 2024
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he declared on the floor of the senate that i would be paul volcker 2.0, paul volcker being a hero ofng for three rate cuts. ever since then the numbers have gone straight up. i feel like he is in something of a bind. what's worse, okay? the touche, waiting too long, you know, central banker, arthur burns, you know, not being tough enough? i mean it's just, it files like we're between a rock and a hard place here? >> we are in a bit of a difficult situation but i think if you take a step back from the day-to-day volatility and the play-by-play policy making we've been discussing for a while now, you have a situation in which there is still disinflationary momentum in the economy, less pricing power, less, more pricing sensitivity. that tends to be disinflationary. it tends to be bumpy until we got to 2%. i'm not sure it is worth fighting all the way to 2% before you start to ease monetary policy we have to consider the possibility that again we are in a cycle where you are seeing some signs of some softening in the labor market. some signs of consumers being more cautious. of business
he declared on the floor of the senate that i would be paul volcker 2.0, paul volcker being a hero ofng for three rate cuts. ever since then the numbers have gone straight up. i feel like he is in something of a bind. what's worse, okay? the touche, waiting too long, you know, central banker, arthur burns, you know, not being tough enough? i mean it's just, it files like we're between a rock and a hard place here? >> we are in a bit of a difficult situation but i think if you take a step...
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Apr 9, 2024
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you remember the paul volcker inflation. then comes joe biden. you can look at this as something you could use against biden in the campaign. if that is the case, you have to put the onus on donald trump for having so many job losses during his term, averaging 783,000 jobs lost a year, and joe biden's gained over 4.9 million a year. that is only because you are averaging. the point is food prices went up, food prices have come down, we saw a lot of people lose jobs , those people got their jobs back. it's not really the president's fault. sonali: certainly a significant pocketbook issue, and a staggering statistic. mike mckee, we thank you so very much for your time. that was a big topic of discussion at our desk today. let's discuss this with u.s. secretary of agriculture tom vilsack. we thank you so much for joining us on a critical issue here. you think about the issue of inflation and as it pertains to food prices, farms across america, how are you navigating it? sec. vilsack: first of all, in terms of food inflation, there is a significant e
you remember the paul volcker inflation. then comes joe biden. you can look at this as something you could use against biden in the campaign. if that is the case, you have to put the onus on donald trump for having so many job losses during his term, averaging 783,000 jobs lost a year, and joe biden's gained over 4.9 million a year. that is only because you are averaging. the point is food prices went up, food prices have come down, we saw a lot of people lose jobs , those people got their jobs...
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Apr 27, 2024
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paul volcker, the chairman of the federal reserve board, has been implementing policies that are exactly opposite in basic thrust from what you recommend. he has been squeezing the productive sector of the economy in favor of the speculative sector. now, i mean, frankly, mr. president, there are important sections of the american economy that are about to go under and won't even have an opportunity to benefit from the programs that you're putting forward, because of the federal reserve's policy. i have a two part question. first of all, do you think that objective economic conditions justify the interest rate levels that we now have? and i don't mean for your answer to imply criticism of the fed. it's just objective question. and the second question is, are you concerned that there might be a sabotage, so to speak, of your policies by programs that the federal reserve might be putting forward? no, i'm not concerned that there would be sabotage. i've met with mr. volcker and not with the intention of trying to dictate, because it is an independent agency, and i respect that. but i think t
paul volcker, the chairman of the federal reserve board, has been implementing policies that are exactly opposite in basic thrust from what you recommend. he has been squeezing the productive sector of the economy in favor of the speculative sector. now, i mean, frankly, mr. president, there are important sections of the american economy that are about to go under and won't even have an opportunity to benefit from the programs that you're putting forward, because of the federal reserve's...
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Apr 5, 2024
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paul volcker, whom i worked under many years ago, and apparently the hero for mr. powell, actually used the second one. he squeezed availability of reserves. banks didn't have much reserves. they scrambled and the federal funds rate went to 22% and killed the economy and finflatin and in that order. this time around, chairman powell doesn't have that option because of the reserves in the banking system. the reserves is more than 1,700 times larger than before the lee lehman crisis. here you try to tighten with this tool and you have to rehe m move the 3.2 trillion first. before you have the grip on the situation. you cannot do that overnight. that means all of the efforts on monetary tightening were on interest rates because you cannot use the other tool. >> we hear a lot of words on cnbc. it goes with the territory. listen to what richard koo just said. the amount of excess u.s. banking reserves is 1,700 times larger than it was pre-hlehman. if nothing else, take nothing away from morning programming today than that fact, that shows you why central banks in the un
paul volcker, whom i worked under many years ago, and apparently the hero for mr. powell, actually used the second one. he squeezed availability of reserves. banks didn't have much reserves. they scrambled and the federal funds rate went to 22% and killed the economy and finflatin and in that order. this time around, chairman powell doesn't have that option because of the reserves in the banking system. the reserves is more than 1,700 times larger than before the lee lehman crisis. here you try...
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Apr 30, 2024
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i remember a bond family, interest rates were going through the roof and paul volcker was doing everything to crush inflation. this doesn't remind me of it. >> eventually -- there are concerns the consumer is tapping out or start ting to tap out to some egree. i hear both of you, respectfully -- >> it's okay, go. >> -- explaining away it all. explaining away this sticky inflation. >> i don't know. i don't think we're explaining it away. >> i kind of do. >> look at marriott. look at services that continues to be on fire. consumer is still spending. savings rate, i'll give it to you, it's come down, but it's still at 3%. and jobs, if you want a job, you can get a job. 1.2 jobs available for every one unemployed person in this country. if the labor market is tight, wages are going higher, that is wonderful for the consumer. that's a tail wind. >> let's be clear. i'm not suggesting that we have a problem of staygflation today. when you get a gdp number that was a disappointment -- i get it, it's the fed's preferred measure, and it was okay relative to the last few cpis. but if you continue to
i remember a bond family, interest rates were going through the roof and paul volcker was doing everything to crush inflation. this doesn't remind me of it. >> eventually -- there are concerns the consumer is tapping out or start ting to tap out to some egree. i hear both of you, respectfully -- >> it's okay, go. >> -- explaining away it all. explaining away this sticky inflation. >> i don't know. i don't think we're explaining it away. >> i kind of do. >>...
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Apr 25, 2024
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volcker, the federal reserve official who got it right and jay powell went to the senate.e said on the senate floor he would not be arthur burns. listen they didn't cut-rate. >> right. charles: some are wondering why they stopped hiking. maybe they stopped hiking too soon? >> maybe they stopped hiking too soon. we have to definitely got to put the word out the idea of having even one rate cut this year is really unlikely. because we need to slow down this inflation. it is really starting to pick up, it is becoming concerning. >> that is another thing, a lot of folks are saying powell helped to add, even saying we'll have three rate cuts was too much too early, actually made his job a lot harder. >> right. charles: i was reading your note. all the things you're talking about, plus the 5% bond yield, this 21 p-e ratio should be 15? >> we're looking 5% yield we're getting close in the 10-year that discounts how much you should pay for equities. these are obviously the more riskier estimates. charles: right. >> forward growth is really only 9% for this year. so if you subtract
volcker, the federal reserve official who got it right and jay powell went to the senate.e said on the senate floor he would not be arthur burns. listen they didn't cut-rate. >> right. charles: some are wondering why they stopped hiking. maybe they stopped hiking too soon? >> maybe they stopped hiking too soon. we have to definitely got to put the word out the idea of having even one rate cut this year is really unlikely. because we need to slow down this inflation. it is really...
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Apr 21, 2024
04/24
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so carter believes that you got to move to the center and also carter very unfortunately appoints paul volcker to be head of the fed and volcker decides that the way we're going to break the back of inflation is to put interest rates up to 20%. and we all know how that worked out. so, yeah, it did break the back of but at the cost of a terrible recession. and then reagan roaring in and reagan does neo big time. so unfortunately the carter repositioned democratic party as a kind of center, a center right party. privatization, tax cutting, anti-union and the. 1980 election. is it total blowout? really the new deal long shadow of the new deal continues right through the seventies. nixon did not try to repeal the new deal. eisenhower certainly did not try to repeal the new deal. eisenhower has a democratic senate for six out of eight years. final in 1980, democrats, the senate and a whole of senate progressives gets blown. republicans take the senate and this really is the beginning of, the conservative era. the both roosevelt, truman, johnson had large majorities of their party in congres
so carter believes that you got to move to the center and also carter very unfortunately appoints paul volcker to be head of the fed and volcker decides that the way we're going to break the back of inflation is to put interest rates up to 20%. and we all know how that worked out. so, yeah, it did break the back of but at the cost of a terrible recession. and then reagan roaring in and reagan does neo big time. so unfortunately the carter repositioned democratic party as a kind of center, a...
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Apr 12, 2024
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charles: and it took paul volcker to really, really crush the economy, you know, to the point where he and it was deadly, after they crushed it and the economy was allowed to come back, they were seen as a heroes. but we were told that jay powell's' ready to do the same thing, and he came out the gate pretty strong. but we haven't had a rate hike since july. and this is one of the longest periods between a hike and a cut, and now they seem con size. how much of this action is concern that maybe the fed doesn't have a handle on this. >> i predicted and i think on your show that if we saw any cuts, it'd be in the first half of the year because powell didn't want to interfere with an election, and and now, like, powell's got another problem. it's not a matter of when he cuts, it's a matter of do we cut or do we raise. charles: right. >> so the last thing we want to do is sort of throw more fuel, i hate to keep using that word, on the fire. if you look at those numbers, there were things in that jobs report that really frighten me. government, you know, basically creating jobs. health care
charles: and it took paul volcker to really, really crush the economy, you know, to the point where he and it was deadly, after they crushed it and the economy was allowed to come back, they were seen as a heroes. but we were told that jay powell's' ready to do the same thing, and he came out the gate pretty strong. but we haven't had a rate hike since july. and this is one of the longest periods between a hike and a cut, and now they seem con size. how much of this action is concern that maybe...
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Apr 24, 2024
04/24
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was it a, paul volcker, b, alan ladd, c, alan alda, or d, alan greenspan? >> d. charles: d? >> d. greenspan. so he had this briefcase that he walked around with. they called it the briefcase indicator. everyone was so enthralled by you know what he was going to do they had this sort of way he carried the brief cast or whatever, they would sort of get a hint. my opinion on green green is i think he might have actually though created a monster because the federal reserve is far too big and far too important to other economy and our stock market, it really is. and right now we're in in the mt perhaps of another mistake by the federal reserve. the business cycle has all blown up. you can't really start a business. you don't know if interest rates will be up or will be down. it is an absolute unmitigated nightmare. they need to stop trying to save the stock market. they need to stop being popular. if it is time to put down some pain, it is time to put down some pain. folks here we go. are you ready? what year did green grind give his famous irrational exuberance speech? was it 1990, 20
was it a, paul volcker, b, alan ladd, c, alan alda, or d, alan greenspan? >> d. charles: d? >> d. greenspan. so he had this briefcase that he walked around with. they called it the briefcase indicator. everyone was so enthralled by you know what he was going to do they had this sort of way he carried the brief cast or whatever, they would sort of get a hint. my opinion on green green is i think he might have actually though created a monster because the federal reserve is far too...
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Apr 4, 2024
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he doesn't want to be remembered as a paul volcker. he wants to be jerome powell who got it once he got away from being behind the curve. so far, so good is what we think. lisa: a theoretical idea. what if on friday we get a huge number? is that a better risk for the equity markets. or a weak number that justified rate cuts? what would be a better number? john: that is hard to tell. it depends on what kool-aid they are drinking on the trading floor around the country that day. [laughter] when you look yesterday when powell initially had spoken the market went down. this isn't so bad. you get that. it's not so much roll with the punches as you have to have context. annmarie: perfect. john: compared to what? i can't think of a jazz musician, who it was, but compared to what was a great tune 20 years to 30 years ago when i was still a young man. jon: let's talk about where the bar is at. the bar is higher now than at the start of the year. we are thinking about upside surprises potential for positive surprises. going through the quarterly
he doesn't want to be remembered as a paul volcker. he wants to be jerome powell who got it once he got away from being behind the curve. so far, so good is what we think. lisa: a theoretical idea. what if on friday we get a huge number? is that a better risk for the equity markets. or a weak number that justified rate cuts? what would be a better number? john: that is hard to tell. it depends on what kool-aid they are drinking on the trading floor around the country that day. [laughter] when...
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Apr 5, 2024
04/24
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his comments, chief economist but works under paul volcker. powell has this time, told me volker didn't have, size of the expect reserves in the u.s. banking system. according to richard, there are 1,700 times larger u.s. banking system prepared to pre-lehman. around $3.2 trillion making it more difficult, withdrawal of the stimulus that came with qe. making it more difficult to make it more potent. interesting. quick word from el-erian, chief economic advisor said fed has to stop giving us a play-by-play commentary on every single piece of data. what they've got to do start being a lot more strategic in longer-term view. amazing people are here. the real message from europe, this ain't just about the u.s., rate decision and payroll numbers. this is about the global economy and keeping ing at least one of legs on the stool there so actually the whole global economy doesn't collapse. back to you, andrew. >> steve sedgwick on a major hard assignment this morning. appreciate news and perspective on all of it. thank you. >>> all right. when we com
his comments, chief economist but works under paul volcker. powell has this time, told me volker didn't have, size of the expect reserves in the u.s. banking system. according to richard, there are 1,700 times larger u.s. banking system prepared to pre-lehman. around $3.2 trillion making it more difficult, withdrawal of the stimulus that came with qe. making it more difficult to make it more potent. interesting. quick word from el-erian, chief economic advisor said fed has to stop giving us a...
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Apr 26, 2024
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bush made comments >> i remember talking to paul volcker before he passed away. he had conversations with james baker on behalf of reagan back in the day this is very different some of the former president's advisers requiring that candidates for the fed chair privately agree to consult with trump on the central bank decisions. others made the case that trump could sit on the fed board of governors on an actsing basis. people described this as far fetched. nonetheless, for those in the finance world who said, okay, i like the tax policies or i'm okay with this or that -- this is different if the federal reserve -- >> no names attached to it no names attached to it. the people that were asked don't know anything about it i like to know who are the people peter navarro? not to disparage him i don't know about the sources, but which allies of trump, if trump doesn't know about it, which it says, he may or may not. >> we don't know. >> that's what i'm saying. who is this? how crazy? what constitutes an tally or a confidante >> we all think this is a crazy situation t
bush made comments >> i remember talking to paul volcker before he passed away. he had conversations with james baker on behalf of reagan back in the day this is very different some of the former president's advisers requiring that candidates for the fed chair privately agree to consult with trump on the central bank decisions. others made the case that trump could sit on the fed board of governors on an actsing basis. people described this as far fetched. nonetheless, for those in the...