rick santelli tracking the action for us. rick? >> hi, tyler.ast guest talked how restrictive fed policy is. current interest rates are set by our central bank. boy, today's data augers for a different story. look at it. current account balance smallest deficit since march of '22. philly fed business outlook, back-to-back positive. first time that's happened, tyler, since april and may of '22. initial continuing claims especially initial continue to be ultrawell behaved. s&p global pmis, a guest talked about it. service inflation stickier and much more adverse to any of the policies of the federal reserve to get at, but today's data from the pmis showed manufacturing pmi surged to a level we haven't seen since june of '22. the services pmi was actually a bit disappointing. leading economic indicators, breaks the streak of 23 consecutive negative month over month changes to the best positive level now since february of '22. existing home sales, up 9.5%. intraday ten-year yields moving higher based on the data. something else. swiss national bank,

let's see how the bond market is reacting with rick santelli in chicago. rick? >> yes. we're going to be paying close attention to the hours worked, the workweek. last month it was 34.1. that really popped out as extraordinarily low and that could affect productivity. as for chairman powell, he did have an effect on the market. let's start early. look at a chart of 10-year treasury yields and bounds in the european union and deals in the uk. at 8:15 eastern see the way they all went down and came up. that was the first big salvo in ecb downgraded inflation and growth. the second was, and you see it mostly in short maturities like 2-year, around 11:25 eastern time, powell was making comments about how commercial real estate isn't exactly his worse case scenario. he thinks things could go better than worse case for big banks especially and talked about when he gets more confidence he feels he's close to lowering rates and pushed rates lower at 11:25. one month chart of 2s and 10s, we reversed and both maturities, especially long maturities today were near one month low yi

back to you and have a great weekend. >> rick santelli, thank you.vens was at the conference and she's back to recap it. >> this is the most important energy conference during the year. it unites all the key stakeholders, and no surprise here, but ai was top of mind in basically every single panel, every single conversation specifically around the power demand it's going to take. now remember low growth or the, you know, the growth in demand on the grid has been essentially flat for years and years, and so these utilities plan very far in the future and not only do we have electrify occasion of everything, evs, and heat pumps, but now all of a sudden, almost out of left field, we have a huge surge in the need from data centers. that means the conversation is increasingly becoming an all of the above energy approach and kind of this understanding that we're not going to be able to get there with renewables alone, particularly for a data center. you need 24/7 baseline power. your only green option for that is nuclear. of course, we have batteries and r

but we go now to chicago and rick santelli, ten-year votes up for auction. professor tracking and grading the action. >> you know, this is an important auction. it's a reopening. 39 million tens. the original auction for the first primary issuance was one month ago. that's important. so what did the yield come out at on 39 billion reopened ten-years? 4.166. the problem was, it's three quarters of a basis point higher than the one issue market. higher yield, lower price the government is selling. that was the biggest markdown on this for a c minus. could have been a d plus if it was a primary auction. there's usually a less aggressive bidding process for the reopenings, and there are always two. next month we gel another one. the metrics were all basically in line with ten auction average. we did see that the dealers took down a little over 17%, 15%, the ten auction average. i find it very interesting that we see yields continuing to climb here. remember, the short end is going to give you a glimpse of what cpi means, and the rest of the curve in the long end

rick santelli has the action for us what were the headlines here >> well, wolf, the metrix were good let's go through it. $66 billion two-year note, the biggest two-year note auction in history in terms of size, the yield 4.595. one market was trading 4.59 which means it had half a basis point tail tails are never good and you'd rather sell it, of course, with a lower yield than the when issued market, but having said all that all of the metrics other than pricing were pretty good, so i gave it a c+ you had 65.8 best since june 2023 and they were dealers because they only took 13.4% with a 16% auction over the last ten. so all of the metrics were pretty good. tomorrow we have five year and that's the biggest five-year ever, as well. we finish up with 43 billion seven years for the package of $167 billion and wolf, as you see yields fall, you see them fall about a basis and a half and you saw the intraday chart as you look at the chart going back to january, we are hovering close right to 7.2% and metrics look pretty good on the day when yields were mostly rising and that, in my opini

santelli is live from chicago for us rick >> yeah.e the biggest issue today that moved markets, yields to the down side, that is, was the five-year note auction at a record size 67 billion the investors showed up. and it was an above average demand at 1:00 eastern look at the intraday of 5s you can clearly see at 1:00 eastern yields dropped now, when you pair today with yesterday what's fascinating is that all maturity treasuries at one point today earlier in the session traded above yesterday's highs. that's important for momentum, meaning higher highs, and of course the price was a bit lower. but after that auction things eased back a bit as a matter of fact, right now you have the maturities right around 2s, 3s, 5s, lower yields on the day while the longer maturities have slightly higher yields on the day. but maybe the thing to pay attention to most is trying to handicap which central back is going to follow switzerland. is the eu going to lower rates before the fed is the bank of england going to lower rates before the fed market

santelli for a closer look at the move we are seeing in yields so far today, we are seeing a bit of a move higher in government bond prices, and a move lower in those yields >> absolutely, dom you know, we could all talk about the stronger economy, but the stronger economy at a period where we have so much debt, would most likely have a larger effect on what's going on in longer rates but everything has been going down say anecdotal evidence if you please, but some of the spat of weaker data is what many investors are hanging their hat on they're making a bet that will continue if you look at 2s and 10s on one chart today, we're making our low yields of our session around the weaker data, whether it was aep or the benchmark revisions, the one traders paid attention to was last month, went from over 9 million to under 9 million. you can call it anecdotal if you want, but there's been a lot of weaker data and we've been cascading lower. boom, right before low, the new york community bank story hits the wires, and that's what moved the market look at the timing of interest rates agains

we have to go to rick santelli in chicago, who gave yesterday's ten-year auction a c minus.have 30 years today. how are you grade thing one? >> what a day a difference makes. in 20 years, we have a 29 year, 11-month security, the grade, sully, a minus. the yield at 22 billion offering by the treasury and the longest maturity that we offer. 4.331. it was a lower yield, which equaled higher price. the government is the seller. that's a good thing. if we look at the dynamics, other than pricing, which was a major positive for the grade, 2.47 bid to cover, that's the best seince june of last year. indirects, above average at 69.3. the dealers take down 13.9 on top of the 14% ten auction average. but this was a very, very good auction. and it really is a bit counterintuitive. we've had a lot of very iffy auctions. today, as yields rise and prices fall, the community of investors stepped up, and maybe it was for exactly that reason, because, of course, the way prices have been moving a bit lower, maybe they took advantage of that, but in the grand skcheme of things, sully, yields

rick santelli, data provider.e had a 3.4% unemployment rate. to find a lower one, had plenty of 3.4s. consider that that data series goes back to 1948, joe. but to find a lower one you will to go to 1953. okay? so we've gone from a comp of 1953 in april of last year to 3.9, half a percent higher which is now a 2 year high. not saying it's messing up the soft landing but something to pay attention. chairman going both sides of the aisle of the house side and the senate side over the last several days, one of the key issues, of course, do you have to crash and burn the economy? do you have to see the unemployment rate move up? do you have to see some pain out there to know that you're getting the job done? well, i don't think he quite saw it that way but the markets and some of these data points could potentially see it that way. especially if we start to see moves of a couple tenths of a percent every couple of months. that's a big jump and something to pay attention to, and even if the labor force participation at

thank you, rick santelli. been embraced by the market on the economy, but also weaker news has been embraced by the market. we got weaker manufacturing numbers for february on friday. now weaker services numbers. because the market is rooting for fed cuts and the market is rooting for better economy. as long as we have evidence of both and services still in expansion that's kind of the setup for stocks that has been so positive. just to add a little bit of fed speak that everyone is talking about this morning into the conversation, we did get bostic after he talked to us recently and been on the wires a lot i picked it out he's talking about the pace of cuts for a change instead of the timing. i would probably not anticipate they would be back to back cuts. given the uncertainty, i think there's some appeal to acting and then seeing how participants in the markets, business leaders and families respond to that. just as the market tries to figure out this curve of how many cuts we're going to get and when the c

once you say rick santelli.ntelli and i think you might have a little more luck. steve liesman -- >> i need to try that. >> try that. steve liesman joins us now. ste steve, out of the blue. a tweet check it out guy name the bob weir. picture unfortunately, it's not him. kind of a common name, i think. >> i mean, my heart leapt, but, anyway, go ahead. are we restrictive, steve? >> joe, i really love the conversation you were having with rick. here's my take on things. i think the fed right now and for the last several months has been caught between the theory and the reality of what's going on in the economy. okay. theoretically the fed is way restricted. and where do you start? start by looking up what they're long-run rate is. 2.5%. the long run, essentially the neutral rate that doesn't slow down or speed up the economy. where are they now? 5 3/8. restrictive, the theory. look how the economy is working. rick can't get reservations at restaurants. i can, because the maitre'ds seem to be very kind to me. thank

and rick santelli will be online with that number, the news, and the analysis that starts at 8:15 a.m. tomorrow morning on good friday on cnbc.com. >>> here we go, last day of the quarter, joe >> do you still have easter egg hunts? >> oh, yeah, i got the eggs yesterday. we're making more eggs today >> 22 and 24 >> you never get too old for this stuff it's so much fun >> you're right. >> happy easter, everybody join us next week. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ >>> good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. farewell, q1, it's good to know you. very good, in fact, all-time closing highs, best q1 for the s&p since 2019 the 14th best going all the way back to the 1920s. busy day today with fed speak, ecodata, and some m&a. our road map begins with stocks on track for a fifth straight monthly gain as we wrap up march of q1. home depot announcing the biggest acquisition for them, buying building products distributor srs, more than $18 billion, i

rick santelli has been tracking that action from the cme rick >> you know, i'm a tough grader.se aung ctions of late, i tro give everyone straight down the path and most of the auction has been weak. this particular auction, 47 billion, not the biggest, not a record size. but it was the best auction i've seen in a long time. a plus, yes, an a plus the yield, 4.185 the one issue market was closer to 4.195 so it was -- it stopped through almost a full basis point, which is the opposite of tailing that's a very positive thing when one considers that we've seen buying pushing yields down all day, to see this auction extend that process, it was the opposite of a concession a concession is when you see the prices falling a bit instead of rising, so you can get in on the auction with a concession. so whether it's the holiday setup to the markets or the fact that we have had a lot of tailwind for buying today already, it was fabulous every metric was very good as a matter of fact, bid-to-cover indirect, direct, and dealers were all basically the best since october of '23. directs actua

rick santelli is going to help us with that an important number tomorrow rick, i thank you, for helpingat the third time around the block on gdp for the fourth quarter and initial continuing claim start with claims. 200,000 expected 210,000 arrives. boy, very well-behaved numbers that is the smallest since 200,000 third week in february we've had several 210,000s look at continuing claims. oh, by the way, in the rearview mirror, 210 becomes 212. that's what sequential order is now. 1 million 819,000 on continuing claims very, very close to expectations, and last month, well, last week, excuse me, that popped back over that 1.8 million mark revised back down to 1 million 795,000. also very well behaved third time around the block, 3.4% on gdp. tell you, these revisions, go up 0.2 on third look. seen a lot of revisions the last couple years definitely seem to be taking on a little extra horsepower. 3.4, pretty good number. of course, the quarter before this, look at the last quarter of, third quarter of last year that was at 4.9 finish, but boy, really good when you consider the last quar

let's get to rick santelli for more. hi, rick. good to see you. >> yes.t's great to be on again with a very special guest. we have jerome schneider, managing director of the short end of pimco. jerome, welcome. >> great to be here. >> cpi, i brought it out at 8:30 eastern. it was on the warm side and really does underscore how tricky it is what we call the last mile, meaning is the fed gets close to their first ease, how does today's cpi affect that decision-making process? >> yeah. we don't necessarily think it affects the situation for june. that probably still remains in play. the focus on the last mile is really a focal point for the investors and the fed as well. we see inflation moving from a good sector to obviously concerns about rent, concerns about wage pressures longer term. a lot of these things are in flux. ultimately the equation doesn't necessarily mean you'll get back to the 2% threshold for the fed as quickly as suggested. while the fed might ultimately react to this downward trend in june, so, a muted view for how the fed thinks about it

. >>> though markets are closed tomorrow a key piece of economic data over to rick santelli for a look how the bond market is doing in chicago ahead of what we're expecting tomorrow >> yeah. going into it, well, maybe things couldn't be in a way more confusing. hearken to this morning. shall we 10:00 eastern this morning saw university of michigan final read for march all three metric, headline, current conditions, expectations, all highest level since july of '21. right there you see the headline number at 79.4 well, for tomorrow, we're all going to look at personal income spending and all metrics built into that it series of data points yes, i will be here with steve liesman. we will discuss it even though the markets are closed go to cnbc.com, but maybe the most important thing i will be looking at is pce year over year core our last look was 2.8. really, it was 2.85. it's notable there, that's a ten-year chart, it's the lowest level of inflation on that metric in three years. exactly three years. but -- it's still well above 2% and therein lies the rub now we've learned we don't ne

let's get over to rick santelli now. i think you got some data for us.ood morning, rick. >>> good morning, david. inn indeed, our february final read on s&p global manufacturing pmi, the mid-month read was 51.5, which happened to have been the best since september of '22. well, it improved. 52.2 replaces it. that's now the best level since june of '22 in terms of strength over 50, and do keep in mind this comes now the second in a row over 50 in expansion after last year. we had ten out of the 12 months under 50, so a nice improvement, and it doesn't end there, folks. we still have university of michigan final reads and the ism pmis for february to still come out at top of the hour. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break. hey you, with the small business... ...whoa... you've got all kinds of bright ideas, that your customers need to know about. constant contact makes it easy. with everything from managing your social posts, and events, to email and sms marketing. constant contact delivers all the tools you need to help your business grow.

santelli but not from the cme group.ight here, rick, so good to have you onset. >> i love visiting. it is a great experience and everybody is so kind. the bond market should have such good friends. if you look at what is going on with bonds, the story for 2024 is, rates are high and they are going to stay high. let's look at atlanta gdp, maybe it doesn't always give you the exact right clues, but just in six days it has gone from 212 to 3 1/4. that is a huge move since last tuesday. if you look at the five year break evens, they are hovering just under 2.4%. the highest levels going back to november. the last thing is a year to date of twos and tens. we are hovering around 422, 461 in a two. this is within 10 basis points of the highs of the year. >> in relative terms, there is no doubt about those break evens, everyone else is present in this stickier inflation story that we have gotten more data on in the last few months. it's still not like we are returning yet to the levels that we saw over the past 2 to 3 years with

i want to put in here rick santelli crossed on my email. atlanta's gdp index fell, just another data point. i want to toss things over to jim. he has a question. >> good to see you, steve. that's where my head is. the data is coming in squirrely here. steve, we know cpi and ppi did a few weeks ago. i have the ism today. the atlanta fed coming down. is there, look, here is what i want to ask, it seems like the fed will be late. is there any chance they'll get the memo early that maybe a cut -- i'm not saying in march. i'm not even saying in may but to put june on the table and acknowledge the soft landing is not guaranteed. i believe in it, but it is not guaranteed, and you're getting data that proves that point. >> jim, i have been looking for fed officials who are more concerned with the outlook, the negative outlook, than they are with the positive one or higher inflation, and it's very hard to find. there aren't many dyed in the wool defense out there, not as many concerned as you are about this. i agree the data -- first of all, i think

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rick santelli here live at cme hq.leading economic indicators for the month of february, remember, we've had 23 consecutive months that have been negative month over month changed. that all ends here. up 0.1%. up 0.1%. that is the best number and the first positive number going all the way back to february of 2022. so it makes pretty much all the data this morning better than expected which really does explain why interest rates have been moving higher and we also have our february read on existing home sales and for that we turn to diana olick. >> and rick, talk about better than expected, existing home sales surged in unexpected 9.5% in february from january to 4.38 million units. the street looking for a slight drop. sales down 3.3% year over year, but this is the largest monthly gain since february of last year. northeast unchanged. the realtors point to increased supply for the gains inventory rose 10.3% to 1.07 million homes for sale at the end of february. it's still a two-month supply considered low but the hig

. >> thank you very much, rick santelli, with the bond report there. over to -- four msnbc. have a lot. they >> say they're, donna. new jersey, this is -- today on seven counts, convicted of bribing new jersey senator menendez. we say -- amateurs program was accused of giving the senators wi-fi mercedes-benz, and exchange for and then this intervening with criminal insurance fraud investigation. and then descent as wife have pleaded not guilty in the case. the u.s. plans to follow jordan's footsteps an airdrop humanitarian aid into gaza, as soon as this weekend. president biden just announced the efforts comes days after reports of israeli troops firing into crowds of people in line to receive flu and other supplies from and eight convoy. -- pulling two hours to last- minute bid to boost foreign out and its parliamentary. -- just 20% of iranians cast ballots many iranians shared plans to boycott today's vote to send a message of descent to the regime. this is the first major election since the resignation protest for women's rights. back in 2022. don,

rick santelli joins us from chicago.>> indeed, that word moderating certainly seemed to get many traderscause deals were -- yields reversed higher. let's start at the beginning. 30 year bond option, the last of 117 billion in coupon supply in today's reopen, 22,000,000,030 years what the best-of-breed. if you look at the chart you can clearly see at one caucasian at the results of the auction hitting the wires interest rates fell. but they didn't last long. if you look at twos, tens and 30s on one chart, we are steer casing, which means all maturities, twos through 30s, our trading or have traded at a higher yield than yesterday, or a lower price than yesterday. that, of course, is building on a reversal. if you look at a chart starting in early february what you will see on twos and tens is that basically each of those maturities last friday was hovering either at or slightly above a one-month low yield clothes. boy, have we reversed. consider this, the high yield clothes for 2024 four twos is for 72. for tens 432. you can see we are starting to be closer. twos are getting closer faster

eastern time with morgan and steve and rick santelli, one of the key pieces of ekco- data >>> carl, i appreciate that very much thank you. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center, the stock is on a streak. the s&p 500 off to its best start to the year since 2019 and the investment committee is here today to debate how much more this rally can go as a new quarter is set to begin. joining me josh brown, shannon saccocia, jim lebenthal. we will check the markets for you. we're still staying in positive territory across the board on this final trading day of the quarter. we are going to keep our eyes, of course, on the courthouse in lower manhattan, a few blocks from here for any new developments that come from there. let's begin by talking about the markets. josh, our best start to the year since '19. bespoke said today if the s&p 500 finishes higher today, the second straight quarter of double digit percentage gains. that hasn't happened in some 12 years. the big question as we enter the new quarter is the rally's momentum running out, or do you feel it's rec

rick santelli is back home safely in chicago. sadly for us. with more on today's action.u, rick. >> i'll tell you what, dom, it was definitely quite enjoyable to sit at the big desk with you and courtney. and you've nailed it. in front of the humphry hawkins as we used to call it, house financial services committee tomorrow, senate banking committee the following day, the markets are giving him a weak i equity market and frothy treasury market. 10:00 eastern, what was going on, 2, 10 and 30s minus 6.2% on the updated durable goods, biggest month over month drop in nearly four years. transportation, down .4 biggest monthly drop in nine months. then ism services, your employment index. by the way we have two employment numbers this week drops back below 50. all of this, of course, you can see on the charts at 10:00 eastern, any maturity they all move lower. but here is something fascinating. last year the first leg of humphry hawkins, house financial services side was on march 8th. but let's go back three or four weeks and look at the chart. this is a two-year. you see that

. >>> let's get inventories and jolts with rick santelli hey, rick. >> yes do keep in mind right at 10ern we're seeing benchmark revisions in jolt. so some comps may change expecting a number under 9 million that's what we received. looking for 8,860,000 we received 8,863,000 and last month's jump over 9 million, the first time over 9 million since september of last year and that was a december number. what we find is that it's back under 8,889,000 and i find that fascinating. wholesale inventory, january read gheets moved. we see it. there's a lot more movement than historical standards now becoming minus .03 that's a wholesale drop from november of last year. and wholesale trade down 1.7%. this is fascinating. expecting down .03, this is the worst number going back to march of last year finally look at yields a two day of twos. we have a double bottom at 452 t tens we traded slightly below yesterday's 410 plus yield but the important thing we're on a pace for a lower month yield in twos and tens and this is based on no change in the text for chairman powell we want to watch what he s

we've been watching for this number, and rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago.ebruary read on the consumer price index headline number expected to be 0.4% is up 0.4%. now if we look at the most recent lower number in this series, we had 0.3 in january, and we had 2.2 in november zand december. this is now a firming issue, as we've had back-to-back reads -- excuse me, we had up 0.4, now ex food and energy, also up 0.4. 0.1 hotter. we have back-to-back on headline and core, up 0.4. now, 0.4 equals the look we had last month on core, and the most recent lower number was october. that was up 0.2. that happened to be the lowest since february of '21. so we're firming here. now the year over year number's also hotter than expect. 3.2 on headline year over year. that's 3.2. that will be the highest since it was 3.4, january remains at 3.1. if we look at year over year core, 3.8. now, this is interesting. this is .1 hotter than we were expecting, but cooler than the rearview mirror. because we had back-to-back 3.9s, which were the lowest since may of '21, which was 3.8,

. >> i want to is you something, it came up the other day, i think rick santelli was talking about itk about the tapering of the tightening. >> correct. >> we're at -- where are we right now? >> just below $8 trillion. >> it struck me where we were at the end of the financial crisis, how much higher we are on the balance sheet and why we wouldn't want to continue to lower the balance sheet overall, in part because, you know, the next crisis could be around the corner. >> so they do want to lower the balance sheet as much as they possibly can. they don't want to do it without having financial turbulence which is something that happened a few years ago, and it involves reverse repo auction and bank reserves and financial liquidity and taking too much out of the system and creating a bigger headache than they need for markets. they want to manage it in the way that doesn't upset markets. so far they've done a good job. >> they're going to slow the -- they're going to slow it. >> slow the run off of the balance sheet. not yet. they basically said this week they're starting to have that co

in the stimulus started moving through after obama became president obama and rick santelli had a cnbcnd in that rant he set our founding fathers would be turning over in their graves and we needed 18 party like our fathers did about the out-of-control spending. and we heard that and we decided we were going to have a tea party like our founding fath did. so michael patrick lahey who now has a star on the star news networkhrough twitter, he organized a conference call. about 24 of us were sober on that first conference call on bk later we had the first round of tea parties. we had 4018 parties with 35,000 peop attendance and then six weeks later on tax day we had over 850 tax day tea parties with more than one million people in attendance across the country. host: it's talk about the election, today is super tuesday. i know ydo you want nikki haley to drop out of the race at this point? guest: yeah, i think nikki haley should drop out of the race. it is clear that trump is going to be the nominee and this time for us to focus on the differences between what trump things are the solutio

rick santelli is standing by at in chicago. rick? >> yes.laims the week of march 16th. expected to be 213,000. a bit less, 210,000 in initial claims. rearview mirror, 209,000. you can see how that stacks up. 209,000 was the smallest number since second week in feb when it was 200,000. continuing claims, 1 million 807,000. a bit less than expected. rearview mirror, 1 million 1 108,000. huge revisions on numbers to the point you almost gasp. give you an example. go to the second week in february, it was originally released at 1 million 898,000. then all of a sudden 111,000 of that disappeared turning into 1 million 787,000. now, i understand revisions, but, man. some of these are really large, just like we get every first friday of the month. large revision there's as well. now, let's look at the current compound for the fourth quarter expected to be 209 billion with a minus sign. comes in a bit wider, always good. minus 194.8 billion. 194.8 billion. that would be the smallest going all the way back, this is pretty good, to the last week, the

>>> welcome back rick santelli standing by.yeah, broken good orders. these are preliminary, joe in a couple of weeks, they'll change into a very volatile series, but do recall, last month, minus 6.2 on the headline that was the worst going back to april of 2020, which was covid now, if you look prior to covid, you would have to go all the way back to july of 2017 to find a bigger negative number and did we reverse it? indeed, we have! up 1.4%. better than the number we were expecting. 1.4% would be the best, well, only since november when it was up 5.4 now, let's get into the nitty-gritty here, shall we? strip out transportation it moves a bit lower so transportation was a booster in this case, which may not be the case moving forward, considering some of the issues with boeing. up half of 1%, up half of 1%, and that follows minus 0.4 that gets upgraded by only minus 0.3. up a whopping 0.7% that is a very solid number. that's the best number since november but november up 0.9% of 1% was the best since march of 22 these are pret

rick santelli is standing by with the data we've been waiting for. it's ppi. people waiting to see. let's start out with ppi then go to retail sales. february ppi headline number expected to be up 0.3%. zoom, zoom, zoom. up double. up 0.6%. that would be the hottest going back to what equals july of last year to find a higher number. going back to june of '22 when it was 0.9%. strip out -- you strip out food and energy, it's up 0.3. 0.1 hotter. in the rearview mirror up half of 0.1. strip out food, energy and trade up 0.4. up 0.4, hottest obviously since up 0.6 last month. year over year now. okay? these are final demand headline numbers. expected to be up 1.2. up 1.6. up 1.6 on year over year, and that is, wow. we're going to have to go back a ways. 1.6, highest level going back to september of last year. 1.8. you'v year over year up. equalling rearview mirror definitely hotter than expected. food, energy and trade year over year up 2.8 follows up 2.6 to find a higher number than 2.8 go back to september of last year when it was 2.9. yields going up. switch gears to retail sales. r