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Jun 11, 2024
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rick santelli is standing by. rick, what do you need to tell us?unlike yesterday's three-year note, which tailed a basis point, this was in the screws by two basis points, meaning the one issued market was 4.457. and the auction went off at a yield of 4.438. lower yield, higher price. this auction defines a solid auction. i gave it an "a." let's go through the details. it's reopening, so it's a nine-year, 11 month technically. it's $39 billion, and the yield 4.438, as i said. a as in apple. not only is pricing significant benchmarked against the one-issued market, which was super solid. if you look at the 2.67 bid to cover, the best since february of '22. indirect bidders, a whopping 74.6, the best since february of '23. the one fly in the ointment was direct bidders like pension funds, insurance companies. they were 13.8, the least amount they've taken at a ten-year since august of '21. it would have been an a plus if not for that. and the dealers taking 11.6. that's the smallest amount since august of '23. the smaller amount the dealers take, the
rick santelli is standing by. rick, what do you need to tell us?unlike yesterday's three-year note, which tailed a basis point, this was in the screws by two basis points, meaning the one issued market was 4.457. and the auction went off at a yield of 4.438. lower yield, higher price. this auction defines a solid auction. i gave it an "a." let's go through the details. it's reopening, so it's a nine-year, 11 month technically. it's $39 billion, and the yield 4.438, as i said. a as in...
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Jun 5, 2024
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let's get some answers from cnbc's rick santelli. you were here, maybe not the last time, but the last time when you set the internet on fire with your prediction for the ten-year yield, you said that rates would go, i think it was north of 15%, that was a -- >> ten. >> north of ten, whatever it was, wildly higher from where they are now. you throw in the towel? >> yes, double digits. and i said it was a possibility, and i still certainly believe that, and i'll tell you why. it's an election year. and what's going to happen in this election year? tax policy, tax cuts, implement, remove them, how that effects deficits, static versus dynamic scoring. we're going to galvanize the public to all the issues that interest rates are definitely going to be held hostage to. and in my opinion, tomorrow, there's not going to be any surprising with the ecb. they can't afford it. the engine of europe, germany, is sputtering. why? they can't even afford the energy costs of the industrial base. their energy price keeps going up and hold that thought
let's get some answers from cnbc's rick santelli. you were here, maybe not the last time, but the last time when you set the internet on fire with your prediction for the ten-year yield, you said that rates would go, i think it was north of 15%, that was a -- >> ten. >> north of ten, whatever it was, wildly higher from where they are now. you throw in the towel? >> yes, double digits. and i said it was a possibility, and i still certainly believe that, and i'll tell you why....
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Jun 7, 2024
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let's bring in rick santelli for that story. hi, rick. >> reporter: hi, tyler. indeed, we saw a big pop at 8:30 eastern on the stronger than expected jobs report hit. i'm going to concentrate on the wild fours. we're up 4%, of course, in the unemployment rate. we're up .4 average hourly earnings, week over week and year over year. we were up 4.1. these are important. let's look at average hourly earnings year over year, shall we? 4.1, and you can seefrom that chart that if you look to the left side, pre-covid, we weren't getting up to that level. on the right side, we're coming down, and it seems to be holding around and above that 4% level. pay close attention to that as it cross fuels some of the inflationary pressures. right now there's only one maturity that is absolutely higher in yield on the week, and that's the two-year note. most sensitive to what the fed may or may not do, all the other maturities, of course, are up significantly on the day. that's the only one up on the week. they closed at 487. they've been hovering at that level. tens on the other h
let's bring in rick santelli for that story. hi, rick. >> reporter: hi, tyler. indeed, we saw a big pop at 8:30 eastern on the stronger than expected jobs report hit. i'm going to concentrate on the wild fours. we're up 4%, of course, in the unemployment rate. we're up .4 average hourly earnings, week over week and year over year. we were up 4.1. these are important. let's look at average hourly earnings year over year, shall we? 4.1, and you can seefrom that chart that if you look to the...
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Jun 26, 2024
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tyler, back to you. >> very interesting developments there, rick santelli, as you point out.ll la. let's go to contessa brewer. >> hello, tyler. the supreme court may be ready to grant abortions in idaho for medical emergencies, according to "bloomberg law," which reported the opinion was posted in error and removed from the website this morning. the posted language indicates hospitals in idaho would be permitted to perform emergency abortions to protect the health of the mother. the court acknowledged the document was posted, but we don't know whether this was a draft decision, the actual decision, or neither at all. >>> the former president of honduras convicted in march on charges he let drug traffickers use the military and national police force to get tons of cocaine into the united states. >>> and more than 21 million miniverse toy sets from mga entertainment are being recalled because of potentially hazardous resins. the safety commission says that when in the liquid form, the make-it minisets can cause skin, eye, and respiratory irritation. kelly? >> when in liquid fo
tyler, back to you. >> very interesting developments there, rick santelli, as you point out.ll la. let's go to contessa brewer. >> hello, tyler. the supreme court may be ready to grant abortions in idaho for medical emergencies, according to "bloomberg law," which reported the opinion was posted in error and removed from the website this morning. the posted language indicates hospitals in idaho would be permitted to perform emergency abortions to protect the health of the...
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Jun 28, 2024
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rick santelli's been following the market all day long as he always does. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler.did fall, but the story changes. there's a big u-turn. let's start at the beginning. you expressed it quite well at the top of the show, tyler. we still have inflation. it's just that it's growing much more slowly, which is a good thing. now, if you look at intraday and put twos and tens on one chart, appro the fed, much more responsive to any good news on inflation moderating because of the implications of the fed affecting it more dramatically than long maturities. if you put a two-year, something should jump out at you. the long end, the orange/red chart, you see is above yesterday's high yields. short maturities, not quite. and if you open it up to one week, it is quite revealing. we had a two-year note option, which had a negative role, meaning the new guy, the on the run, has a higher yield than the off the run, but that's because it is important that these metrics are responsive to current conditions. and what you see on a week-to-date chart is that two-year notes are virtually
rick santelli's been following the market all day long as he always does. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler.did fall, but the story changes. there's a big u-turn. let's start at the beginning. you expressed it quite well at the top of the show, tyler. we still have inflation. it's just that it's growing much more slowly, which is a good thing. now, if you look at intraday and put twos and tens on one chart, appro the fed, much more responsive to any good news on inflation moderating because of the...
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Jun 14, 2024
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kelly, back to you. >> thank you, rick santelli. today and down 60% in two years, meanwhile, but that doesn't necessarily translate to utility savings yet. what's going on, pippa? >> consumers should not expect any type of relief this summer on their electric utility bill. they're actually forecast to go up 1.8%. you have to remember the fuel cost is one part of your utility bill. the other thing is the wires and transmission, all that costs money to get that power to your home. and that's the portion of the bill the utility is allowed to earn a regulated return on. you see here we have this graphic. on that blue line you can see electricity prices have been going higher, and in the last five years they're up about 19%. on annual basis from 1395 to about 1642 last year. there's definitely sticker shock. however, if you look at the orange line that's where you adjust for inflation, so looking at that it's actually come down a little bit. however, the latest cpi report this week showed in may electricity was outpacing inflation up 5.9
kelly, back to you. >> thank you, rick santelli. today and down 60% in two years, meanwhile, but that doesn't necessarily translate to utility savings yet. what's going on, pippa? >> consumers should not expect any type of relief this summer on their electric utility bill. they're actually forecast to go up 1.8%. you have to remember the fuel cost is one part of your utility bill. the other thing is the wires and transmission, all that costs money to get that power to your home. and...
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Jun 12, 2024
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rick, thank you very much. rick santelli. we're moments away from chair powell's press conference. we'll take you there live as soon as it happens, about 17 minutes from now. but first we'll take a quick break, with the dow down slightly and the nasdaq still up more than 1 1/2% and near record levels. don't go anywhere. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and also send them away. rich is living life your way. and having someone who can help you get there. the key to being rich is knowing what counts. >>> welcome back to "power lunch." the fed decision is in. they're holding rates steady. and we're less than 15 minutes away from hearing from fed chair poul powell which can often be even more market moving. for more on what investors should do and listen to that tim seymour joins us of seymour asset management. he's a cnbc contributor. tim, it's great to have you here. >> hey, kelly. >> welcome. where are you? the decision was hawkish. the markets not
rick, thank you very much. rick santelli. we're moments away from chair powell's press conference. we'll take you there live as soon as it happens, about 17 minutes from now. but first we'll take a quick break, with the dow down slightly and the nasdaq still up more than 1 1/2% and near record levels. don't go anywhere. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. and...
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Jun 3, 2024
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to rick santelli. >> yes, carl.ril, we are expecting a positive number, but instead up 0.2%, we're getting down 0.1% which means we haven't had a positive number this year. the last positive number was december when it was up nearly 1%. on the ism manufacturing for may, and these, of course, are following the s&p global we're expecting a number below 50, and it remains below 50. manufacturing at 48.7. that's the weakest since february of this year. if we look at prices paid, last month at 60.9. it was the highest in nearly two years. it has backed off a bit from 60.9 down to 57. 57 would be the weakest since march of this year. and, of course, we haven't been below 50 in this since december of last year. prices paid, well, less inflation may be a good thing. on the new orders, 45.4. the weakest since may of '23. and finally, the ism employment that's particularly important because this week we have adp on wednesday and jobs report on friday, this number is above 50, 51.1. the best since august of '22. you see intere
to rick santelli. >> yes, carl.ril, we are expecting a positive number, but instead up 0.2%, we're getting down 0.1% which means we haven't had a positive number this year. the last positive number was december when it was up nearly 1%. on the ism manufacturing for may, and these, of course, are following the s&p global we're expecting a number below 50, and it remains below 50. manufacturing at 48.7. that's the weakest since february of this year. if we look at prices paid, last...
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Jun 18, 2024
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rick santelli, thank you very much. >>> let's start with retail.of the consumer, is in focus. and the health of the consumer is slowing which is not a big surprise given we've had inflation, given we've had higher interest rates, pressuring the consumer and prices. what we saw was 0.1% growth on the month of may and that was less than expected. the control group, which feeds into gdp, is closely tied to the spending portion of gdp, up 0.4%. that was also a slight miss. people are paying attention to the revisions for april which we new was a weak month and they wept even lower. negative 0.2% for the month of april, a disappointment. some of the weakness in categories like furniture, building materials, carl you mentioned earlier, people are still spending online more than they are spending in store and these are not inflation adjusted numbers. i think it -- is it enough to keep the economic recovery intact? nobody is questioning that at this point as far as the economists are going, but we're talking about a slowing, slower growing consumer and slo
rick santelli, thank you very much. >>> let's start with retail.of the consumer, is in focus. and the health of the consumer is slowing which is not a big surprise given we've had inflation, given we've had higher interest rates, pressuring the consumer and prices. what we saw was 0.1% growth on the month of may and that was less than expected. the control group, which feeds into gdp, is closely tied to the spending portion of gdp, up 0.4%. that was also a slight miss. people are...
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Jun 5, 2024
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let's get to rick santelli.g, rick. >> solid with a capital s. 53.8 for the headline services ism pmi index. why is it a big number? in the regulatoar view mirror w 49.4, the first time in months under 50. a nice reversal, 53.8 the best level since august of last year when it was 54.1. prices paid, 58.1, less than expected, less than 59.2 in the rear view mirror and 58.1, which is the lowest level since march. so it reversed from 59.2, been there done that. on the services, the employment index, which is important given adp disappointed a bit. and friday is the big jobs job report. this remains under 50. 47.1. a sequential improvement but remains under 50. finally new orders, sequentially higher 54.1, 54.4 was march. once again the comp doesn't go back much but it was an i improvement. to summarize it seems the prices paid number would be to scrutinize and why the services number combined not getting much push back on the rates. back to you. >> important to see the prices paid come in below consensus. take any b
let's get to rick santelli.g, rick. >> solid with a capital s. 53.8 for the headline services ism pmi index. why is it a big number? in the regulatoar view mirror w 49.4, the first time in months under 50. a nice reversal, 53.8 the best level since august of last year when it was 54.1. prices paid, 58.1, less than expected, less than 59.2 in the rear view mirror and 58.1, which is the lowest level since march. so it reversed from 59.2, been there done that. on the services, the employment...
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Jun 27, 2024
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rick santelli has more. >> you named it. more important data today, maybe even more important tomorrow. gdp, this was the third time around the block, but consumption took a hit, and the pride indices are a bit warmer than expected. then you had the cooler numbers. if you looked at durable goods, especially the court, cooler than expected, and right into the icebox when it comes to pending home sales. if you look at 2s and 10s on one chart, yields have drop dam tickly. a month-to-date chart looks how much of 2s and 10s are down. the big story remainsforeign exchange. we talked about for the first time if 3 years, the dollar/yen closed above that 160 level. as you see on this two-day chart, but still solidly above 160, still hovers at 38-year highs, and it does underscore that the bank of japan has verbally trying to tell foreign exchange change trader to stop. we'll have to ultimately see. intervention may work for a while, but in the big picture, it never seems to work on a large scale. kell yes, back to you. thank you, yes
rick santelli has more. >> you named it. more important data today, maybe even more important tomorrow. gdp, this was the third time around the block, but consumption took a hit, and the pride indices are a bit warmer than expected. then you had the cooler numbers. if you looked at durable goods, especially the court, cooler than expected, and right into the icebox when it comes to pending home sales. if you look at 2s and 10s on one chart, yields have drop dam tickly. a month-to-date...
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Jun 3, 2024
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let's get that side of the story from rick santelli. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler.eed, bond yields hovering at some lowest yields. highest price of the session. it all began this morning around 10:00 eastern. ism prices paid dropped nearly two-year high, as you see on this chart. and what should ring true is that it was a small concession with a big market move. just like friday, whether it's personal consumption expenditures. when any of the inflation data comes in near as expected without any surprises or makes subtle progress, the markets get quite euphoric. we need to pay close attention here if it gets legged. if you look at two-year and dollar index, you can see clearly at 10:00 eastern when that was released, the dollar index gave up some ground, two-year note reversed from thursday's two-month -- excuse me, one-month high to now about a three-week low. the dollar index pays for the lowest close in two months sensing at least gravitating to the notion that the worst part of inflation and the rise in prices paid in the rearview mirror. something else happened
let's get that side of the story from rick santelli. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler.eed, bond yields hovering at some lowest yields. highest price of the session. it all began this morning around 10:00 eastern. ism prices paid dropped nearly two-year high, as you see on this chart. and what should ring true is that it was a small concession with a big market move. just like friday, whether it's personal consumption expenditures. when any of the inflation data comes in near as expected without any...
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Jun 4, 2024
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rick santelli has it for us. rick? >> yes, david. watch yields fall, watch stock rally.ngs and labor turnover was just released for the month of april. always two months in arrears, and it came in definitely lighter than expected. they're expecting a number around 8.3 million. 8, 059, 000. what's interesting, last month's 8, 488, 000. whether looking at last month's revision or the current one, they come to three years, basically, going all the way back to february of '21 when under 8 million. that is the comp and yields are moving lower because of the implications for the fed at easing based on potentially a less tight labor market. factory orders for the month of april up 0.7% near expectations, but a big negative revision from 1.6 original to only 0.7. factory orders ex-transportation up 0.7, so we can see transportation orders didn't negatively affect that number. last month loses 0.1 from a path of 1% to up 0.4. durable goods orders april finals replacing mid month reads. the mid month read of 0.7, now moves to 0.6. strip out transportation, loses a little bit, rema
rick santelli has it for us. rick? >> yes, david. watch yields fall, watch stock rally.ngs and labor turnover was just released for the month of april. always two months in arrears, and it came in definitely lighter than expected. they're expecting a number around 8.3 million. 8, 059, 000. what's interesting, last month's 8, 488, 000. whether looking at last month's revision or the current one, they come to three years, basically, going all the way back to february of '21 when under 8...
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Jun 5, 2024
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. >>> the bond market, and let's go to chicago with rick santelli. >> his, tyler. i'm on on the floor of the cboe. consider, the whole thing is a three-legged stool. growth, which seems to be slowing, and, of course, we have the labor market, everybody is looking at things like jolt, and we have inflation. today's prices go to that end. it's a combination of those three things that will will decide a lot. each of those five days traded below the previously sessions' lows, and we're on pace for the lower yield close since the end of march. we're still 23409 near the 2% target. hey, paul. >> hey, rick. >> it looks as though there may be a cut tomorrow. we had the swiss cut in march, but today bank of canada cut a quarter to 4.75. what do you think is going on with regard to equities and how is that all playing into what may or may not happen from the fed? >> well, you can see equities pretty much on the all-time highs. everyone's well aware, we have next week cpi, and a fed meeting -- >> also, auctions next week. it's going to be an interesting one. >> some of those
. >>> the bond market, and let's go to chicago with rick santelli. >> his, tyler. i'm on on the floor of the cboe. consider, the whole thing is a three-legged stool. growth, which seems to be slowing, and, of course, we have the labor market, everybody is looking at things like jolt, and we have inflation. today's prices go to that end. it's a combination of those three things that will will decide a lot. each of those five days traded below the previously sessions' lows, and...
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Jun 14, 2024
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rick santelli.ond yields i want to point out today, our story of the week, not improving sentiment, is what's happening in france. we've seen the carnage in the french stock market lost about $200 billion in market value, the size of greece's economy this week. the chart that everybody is watching right now. having a little deja vu watching the european bond spreads. the french-german spread. the differential between what's considered riskier now versus safer. it's not sovereign debt level crisis levels as matt of miller points out, but it is a risk and increasing political risk there, especially when deficits are so in focus in europe and france has work to do on that front and now the politicians have started fear mongering and i think the quote today that is worth highlighting that investors are watching is from the french finance minister. this is macron's finance minister. he warned against the four left parties that got together and sort of formed an alliance. he said "their program is complet
rick santelli.ond yields i want to point out today, our story of the week, not improving sentiment, is what's happening in france. we've seen the carnage in the french stock market lost about $200 billion in market value, the size of greece's economy this week. the chart that everybody is watching right now. having a little deja vu watching the european bond spreads. the french-german spread. the differential between what's considered riskier now versus safer. it's not sovereign debt level...
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Jun 25, 2024
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rick santelli has the results for us. rick, what does it tell you? >> well, $69 billion first of all. this is the third $69 billion two-year auction in terms of size. we've never had one bigger than $69 billion. the yield of this auction, 4.076, which pretty much is about where the one issued market was trading. from a pricing standpoint, it was very tight. if you look at the metrics, a couple jump out at me. the bid-to-cover, 2.75 more bids than we actually have securities to sell. that bid-to-cover is the most aggressive since august of last year. and all the other metrics are either above or right on top of ten auction average. so b plus is the grade, boy plus for the first of three legs of this particular set of auctions. tomorrow will be $70 billion fives, never had a bigger one. but the reason this two year is important because if you look at the yield curve twos to tens, kelly, it's the most inverted of the entire year. and one of the reasons is because it was a sticky two-year because the fed has been leaning in a very confusing manner to man
rick santelli has the results for us. rick, what does it tell you? >> well, $69 billion first of all. this is the third $69 billion two-year auction in terms of size. we've never had one bigger than $69 billion. the yield of this auction, 4.076, which pretty much is about where the one issued market was trading. from a pricing standpoint, it was very tight. if you look at the metrics, a couple jump out at me. the bid-to-cover, 2.75 more bids than we actually have securities to sell. that...
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Jun 25, 2024
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let's get to rick santelli. >> yes., we have some richmond fed indices on richmond fed, if we look at the manufacturing side of the equation, expecting a number minus 3. comes out minus 10. that's the weakest, biggest negative month over month change since march and if we look at the service side, the business conditions, at minus 11, that's the weakest since october of last year. on june consumer confidence, from the conference board, we're expecting a nice even 100 on the headline, comes in better than expected, 100.4. and that follows sequentially 101.3, which is a downward revision of what was originally reported as 102. if we look at the present situation, 141.5. comps to last month which had a huge downward revision. all the way from 143.1 to 140.8. so big downward revision there. so 141.5 now stands as the best level going back to march of just this year. and finally if we look at what may lie ahead on expectations, 73.0. sequentially following a slightly upward revised 74.9. 73.0 is the lightest level since, wel
let's get to rick santelli. >> yes., we have some richmond fed indices on richmond fed, if we look at the manufacturing side of the equation, expecting a number minus 3. comes out minus 10. that's the weakest, biggest negative month over month change since march and if we look at the service side, the business conditions, at minus 11, that's the weakest since october of last year. on june consumer confidence, from the conference board, we're expecting a nice even 100 on the headline,...
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Jun 28, 2024
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let's get to rick santelli. hey, rick. >> yes, a big surprise here on the chicago pmi june read.0. 47.4. now, that doesn't sound great. it's under 50, but it's still the best read since november, but here's why the market, on interest rates is moving a bit higher on this number and stocks a bit lower. last month was over a four-year low. may of -- last month's read at 35.4 comped all the way back to may of 2020 when it was 31.3. so, even though it's still in contraction mode, it did have a big jump, and do keep in mind that ten-year note right now is hovering at 4.26%. that's unchanged on the week. pay attention to that 4.25% level. it should be significant. and pre-personal income and spending numbers, that ten-year was hovering around 4.30%. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break. see that? that's like the gap in my health insurance. gap in your health insurance? yeah, it didn't cover everything when i got hurt. good thing i had aflac. hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. go, go, go! ya
let's get to rick santelli. hey, rick. >> yes, a big surprise here on the chicago pmi june read.0. 47.4. now, that doesn't sound great. it's under 50, but it's still the best read since november, but here's why the market, on interest rates is moving a bit higher on this number and stocks a bit lower. last month was over a four-year low. may of -- last month's read at 35.4 comped all the way back to may of 2020 when it was 31.3. so, even though it's still in contraction mode, it did have...
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Jun 6, 2024
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let's get to rick santelli with a check of the bond market. ten-year is back below 430, rick. >> i'll tell you, it really is amazing and we're hovering unchanged at pretty much every maturity on a very significant day. yes, it's the day before the may jobs, jobs, jobs report, but the eu, of course, the ecb cut rates today. big news, and i think what's also big news is the day they cut rates happens to be the big day of voting for parliamentary elections and boy, i thought there would be more notice of that and it seems to be under the radar screen, to some extent. let's look at the ten-year. it's hovering at the lowest yields since the end of march, and if we look at the difference between our tens and the european tens considering they ease today and we're not expected to ease until september although i always draw a question on reading too much into fed fund futures that far in advance. the difference is the tightest it's been in four months. that's important, and if we look at the euro versus the dollar on top of the chart of the dollar ind
let's get to rick santelli with a check of the bond market. ten-year is back below 430, rick. >> i'll tell you, it really is amazing and we're hovering unchanged at pretty much every maturity on a very significant day. yes, it's the day before the may jobs, jobs, jobs report, but the eu, of course, the ecb cut rates today. big news, and i think what's also big news is the day they cut rates happens to be the big day of voting for parliamentary elections and boy, i thought there would be...
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Jun 11, 2024
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rick santelli is in chicago with more. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler. indeed. clearly see that even though we've been mostly higher in price, lower in yield prior to that big drop, rates were climbing a bit. the results of 39 billion reopened 10s hit the screens and it was a solid auction. inf investors were pleased to take down 10 year notes at a pace that surprised the market. you see the big drop. that drop put us under yesterday's low yields. you see on the next chart, not only in 10s, all maturities 2 tluz 30s are trading under yesterday's yields. here is where it gets interesting. if i now look at another day to make it a three-day chart, looking at yesterday's jobs, jobs, jobs report, we see we're elevated. we're not elevated on 10s, all maturities look like on that chart. even though rates have come down a bit and hovering right around 440 and a 10, the low yield before the jobs report came out was under 430. so we want to pay close attention to that move. and with tomorrow's big decision day with the fed, nobody expecting much, which is probably why th
rick santelli is in chicago with more. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler. indeed. clearly see that even though we've been mostly higher in price, lower in yield prior to that big drop, rates were climbing a bit. the results of 39 billion reopened 10s hit the screens and it was a solid auction. inf investors were pleased to take down 10 year notes at a pace that surprised the market. you see the big drop. that drop put us under yesterday's low yields. you see on the next chart, not only in 10s, all...
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Jun 21, 2024
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rick santellis that for us. hey, rick. >> yes. leading economic indicators for may are out. what is interesting about that, mike, is that means that 2 out of the last 27 months, only 2 have been positive and those months were february of this year and going back to february of '22. leading economic indicators is really not let us down an accurate path and last month down 0.6%, that was the worst since october of last year when it was down 0.9. interest ratesreversed off the lows of the session on the strong service sector pmi. also out right now is our may read on existing home sales and head east to diana olick. >> rick, existing home sales in may were essentially flat down 0.7% from april to seasonally adjusted annual nized rate of 4.11 million units that's better than the treat was looking for. sales down 2.8% year over year. the closed sales based on contracts likely signed in march and april. we're still over 7% on the 30-year fixed. the headline in this report inventory is building up 6.7% month to month and up 18.5% from may of last year. now a 3.7 month supply at the
rick santellis that for us. hey, rick. >> yes. leading economic indicators for may are out. what is interesting about that, mike, is that means that 2 out of the last 27 months, only 2 have been positive and those months were february of this year and going back to february of '22. leading economic indicators is really not let us down an accurate path and last month down 0.6%, that was the worst since october of last year when it was down 0.9. interest ratesreversed off the lows of the...
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let's get a check on the bond market now with rick santelli out in chicago as we head into the weekendyou know, if you look at a one-week chart of 2s and 10s on top of each other, it's been mostly a sideways week, but what was interesting this morning was is that we're nearly unchanged on the week until the service s&p global pmis hit. at 55.1 they were the best since april of '22, and that put the extra three basis points we're up on the week right there on the 10s, and for next week, we have auctions. 2s, 5s and 7s. cumulatively, $183 billion. issuance. we learned a lot of important information this week. let's go to the white board. issuance for 2023 versus 2024, year to date, 89.9 trillion on this pace in '23. we're already over $13 trillion for 2024. a record year in the offing again. is that a good thing? i'm not sure it is, but here's what we learned on tuesday, the 18th, that the budget deficits for 2023 were $1.7 trillion. you know, trillion, 12 zeros. well, now it's approaching 2 trillion for 2024. i know it's an election year, and we're all going to hear a lot of malarkey ab
let's get a check on the bond market now with rick santelli out in chicago as we head into the weekendyou know, if you look at a one-week chart of 2s and 10s on top of each other, it's been mostly a sideways week, but what was interesting this morning was is that we're nearly unchanged on the week until the service s&p global pmis hit. at 55.1 they were the best since april of '22, and that put the extra three basis points we're up on the week right there on the 10s, and for next week, we...
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Jun 18, 2024
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rick santelli live from the cboe tracking the action. rick? >> reporter: yes, tyler, indeed.ail sales and weaker revisions, but the stellar move of the day was based on a 20-year auction. you see the chart there. now you can look at 2s, 10s, 20s, 5s, 30s. every maturity made a new yield low on the session on that auction. let's go talk to a trader. hey, jim. >> hey, rick. how are ou? >> we saw weak retail sales, weak revisions, stellar 20-year auction. you guys have a big expiration coming ups don't you? >> kind of a big deal. june expiration, it's been particularly important for the last several weeks. we talked about this a way back because there's a ton of supply and also with the yur getting a bunch of buy back. and sure enough, you know, here we go vol compression, market up, sideways top action. >> inventory of these auction going on for months, literally. it doesn't surprise me. do you think what many of these auctions were put on that the option holders had any idea we would be flirting with historic territory. >> this is what the wall of worry is all about. people bu
rick santelli live from the cboe tracking the action. rick? >> reporter: yes, tyler, indeed.ail sales and weaker revisions, but the stellar move of the day was based on a 20-year auction. you see the chart there. now you can look at 2s, 10s, 20s, 5s, 30s. every maturity made a new yield low on the session on that auction. let's go talk to a trader. hey, jim. >> hey, rick. how are ou? >> we saw weak retail sales, weak revisions, stellar 20-year auction. you guys have a big...
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Jun 13, 2024
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>> let's get over to rick santelli, tracking the 30-year bond auction that just went off. did it go, rick? >> well, all you need to do is look at a 30-day intraday chart. markets have moves. it doesn't have a lasting impact. this particular auction went extremely well. back-to-back as as in apple. a yesterday for the ten-year. today, an a for 22 billion reopened 30-year bonds. so the yield was 4.403, substantially lower than the one issue was 4.418, which means lower yield, higher price, government is the seller. that is a good thing. the bid to cover, 2.49, meaning there were 2.5 times more bids than actual securities for sale. that was the best since june of '23. all the metrics were good. another outstanding metric, the dealer takedown. 13.7%. ten auction average is 16%. that's the most aggressive takedown since august of '23. so those 22 billion 30 years found homes. it was a good auction. ten-year was 39 billion. a good auction yesterday. what does this mean? does it change the metrics? it doesn't change the metrics, it just means you have to tune in at every auction,
>> let's get over to rick santelli, tracking the 30-year bond auction that just went off. did it go, rick? >> well, all you need to do is look at a 30-day intraday chart. markets have moves. it doesn't have a lasting impact. this particular auction went extremely well. back-to-back as as in apple. a yesterday for the ten-year. today, an a for 22 billion reopened 30-year bonds. so the yield was 4.403, substantially lower than the one issue was 4.418, which means lower yield, higher...
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Jun 20, 2024
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bond yields are slightly higher after the latest economic data which is a bit weird, rick santelli whichreat unless it was an aftershock from the cbo numbers this week. >> you nailed it. that's the whole point of what i'm going to talk about is how counterintuitive today's data is to reconcile with the market activity. if you look at continuing claims, they claim out at 1.828 million, okay? but here's the thing. continuing claims are not only at the highest level in over two and a half years. we now have the second monthly reit at 1.8 million. if we look at the rest of the data points today, not only claims. look at housing starts and diane olick's been talking all about housing starts and breaking them down, but on a quite simple level that the lowest seasonally adjusted annualized pace in four years, now look at twos and tens. we hit it when the data hit and that makes sense. what doesn't make sense is how the rest of the session went and we started to see rates move higher and granted, they were about middle of the range and what we have done is we closed that gap to some of the rate
bond yields are slightly higher after the latest economic data which is a bit weird, rick santelli whichreat unless it was an aftershock from the cbo numbers this week. >> you nailed it. that's the whole point of what i'm going to talk about is how counterintuitive today's data is to reconcile with the market activity. if you look at continuing claims, they claim out at 1.828 million, okay? but here's the thing. continuing claims are not only at the highest level in over two and a half...
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Jun 13, 2024
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rick, thank you very much. rick santelli. >>> coming up, some musk-see tv. tesla shareholder votes taking place this afternoon. will musk get his massive pay package? we'll find out next. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab. investment professionals know the importance of keeping their clients on track. sometimes they need help cutting through the noise, to ensure fresh investment ideas keep flowing, and to analyze the market from every angle. at allspring, we deliver the unexpected, by relentlessly exploring where others don't. allspring, follow the insight. a slow network is no network for business. that's why more choose comcast business. and now, we're introducing ultimate
rick, thank you very much. rick santelli. >>> coming up, some musk-see tv. tesla shareholder votes taking place this afternoon. will musk get his massive pay package? we'll find out next. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools, including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with...
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Jun 25, 2024
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rick santelli is standing by in chicago along with pimco's jerome schneider.ver to you. >> thank you, kelly. jerome schneider, welcome to chicago again. what i noticed today was the 2s, 10s spread is hovering just below minus 50 bases points. that is the most inverted spin all year. >> right. >> what is that telling us? >> it's tells us ultimately that the economic data is beginning to turn a bit. retail sales remain strong, at the same time, you're having the inflation numbers come off. everybody's eyes firmly on what happens on friday. the reality, conflicting data at this point in time. when we're really seeing indicated by today's 2-year auction -- >> i gave it a b-plus. it was solid. >> it's probably b-plus, a-minus. >> what's ultimately investors cash, federal reserve will modestly affect interest rates later this year. the attraction of the curve to earn more income but at the same time has the potential for price appreciation mean that is a need to get out of money market funds. >> it is a split decision. as i watch different data points, last week, fo
rick santelli is standing by in chicago along with pimco's jerome schneider.ver to you. >> thank you, kelly. jerome schneider, welcome to chicago again. what i noticed today was the 2s, 10s spread is hovering just below minus 50 bases points. that is the most inverted spin all year. >> right. >> what is that telling us? >> it's tells us ultimately that the economic data is beginning to turn a bit. retail sales remain strong, at the same time, you're having the inflation...
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Jun 7, 2024
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rick santelli is standing by. take it away. >> yes. it's the big jobs, jobs, jobs report!nd if we look at revisions over the last couple of months, we lose 15k. 15,000. now, let's go through is all. shall we? if you look at the unemployment rate for the first time since january of '22, it hit 4%. yes. 4%. look at month over month earnings, well, month over month is stronger than expected. up 0.4%. up 0.4%. why is that fortimportant? juiciest since beginning of the year up half of 1%. highest since march of '22. we're moving back up a bit. now, if we go for month over month to year over year, also stronger than expected. 4.1%. that equals march, to find out go to february when it was 4.3. started at 4.4. weekly hours 34.3 exactly expected exactly like the rearview mirror. labor force participation rate actually moving down. 62.5. recent high water mark was 62.7. that was last month. that was the best going back to november of last year. but this number at 62.5 equals february. to find a lower number you have to go all the way back to january of last year and finally what we
rick santelli is standing by. take it away. >> yes. it's the big jobs, jobs, jobs report!nd if we look at revisions over the last couple of months, we lose 15k. 15,000. now, let's go through is all. shall we? if you look at the unemployment rate for the first time since january of '22, it hit 4%. yes. 4%. look at month over month earnings, well, month over month is stronger than expected. up 0.4%. up 0.4%. why is that fortimportant? juiciest since beginning of the year up half of 1%....
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Jun 12, 2024
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right to rick santelli. he is going to have those numbers in just about five seconds' time. rick?ed to be a big deal for the fed, which meets today, by the way, and it is hitting the wires. unchanged on headline month over month cpi. unchanged. as was pointed out, expecting up 0.1%. unchanged is the lowest level going all the way back to may of 2020. call it four years when it was minus 0.1. several reads that have been zero. now, look at energy up 0.2, becky pointed out. 0.1 lighter than expectations. rear view mere, 0.2. last time at 0.2, october last year find aglower number up 0.1, august 2021. year over year numbers. 3.3 on year over year headline. 0.1 lighter than both expectations and the rearview mirror. 3.3 is the lightest going back to february when it was 3.2. we started the year at 3.1. finally, food and energy, core year over year expected 3.5. last look, 3.6. comes in at 3.4. 3.4 lightest ledvel, a long way basically three years to april '21, 3.0. even last month the, real void. by the way, it shot up aggressively post-covid. becky didn't give you expectations for th
right to rick santelli. he is going to have those numbers in just about five seconds' time. rick?ed to be a big deal for the fed, which meets today, by the way, and it is hitting the wires. unchanged on headline month over month cpi. unchanged. as was pointed out, expecting up 0.1%. unchanged is the lowest level going all the way back to may of 2020. call it four years when it was minus 0.1. several reads that have been zero. now, look at energy up 0.2, becky pointed out. 0.1 lighter than...
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. >> thank you, rick santelli. >>> let's talk about this jobs report. it was a weird one.ctions to an economic report. it was a stung amount of jobs created for a month it was a lot better than expected. on the plus side, the jobs were spread out in good paying industries, like health care, trade and transport, government, manufacturing even advanced 8,000 jobs, but then we get this household survey of employment. remember the government does kind of two surveys of employment. dropped 408,000. that's a pretty notable divergence, and into the unemployment rate actually rose to 4%, the highest we have seen since november 2021. so a lot of mixed signals, perhaps the most important number no the markets and the fed was average hourly earnings. they rose 0.4% on the month, more than 4% compared to last year. that was a step back in terms of progress on inflation. the bottom line, because it's really hard to know what to make of this jobs report and what is the most important. so i just went to the experts, and look for comment tear on the treatment. he frequency economics says
. >> thank you, rick santelli. >>> let's talk about this jobs report. it was a weird one.ctions to an economic report. it was a stung amount of jobs created for a month it was a lot better than expected. on the plus side, the jobs were spread out in good paying industries, like health care, trade and transport, government, manufacturing even advanced 8,000 jobs, but then we get this household survey of employment. remember the government does kind of two surveys of employment....
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Jun 26, 2024
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let's get to rick santelli. good morning. >> good morning. on new homes sales expected to be on an annualized unit basis around 630,000 coming on the light side, 619,000 and that is the smallest month over month rate since november of last year. and, there's some big features in the market. quickly the two year versus the one we optioned yesterday the new one is six basis points lower in real so the spread went from almost minus 50 yesterday to minus 43 today. and watch the dollar yen over 160. it's only traded intraday above 160 twice since the late 80s and closed above 160 in 1986 was the last time. so you want to pay attention. >> pay attention to diana olick who's going to give us more color on today's new weak home sales. >> reporter: you're right a disappointment down 16 1/2% year over year but i would note there's a major revision to april's numbers up to 699 from 644,000. so there was a roll up in april and a disappointment in may. but mortgage rates were high in april and dropped off sharply in may and came down to around the 7% rang
let's get to rick santelli. good morning. >> good morning. on new homes sales expected to be on an annualized unit basis around 630,000 coming on the light side, 619,000 and that is the smallest month over month rate since november of last year. and, there's some big features in the market. quickly the two year versus the one we optioned yesterday the new one is six basis points lower in real so the spread went from almost minus 50 yesterday to minus 43 today. and watch the dollar yen...
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Jun 20, 2024
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rick santelli gave the auction an a-plus. >> that was 20s. >> which is an odd ball it have t . >> theew kid on the block. >> it shows you there is demand. there might be external factors for that. what's going on in europe could feed demand for the safety of treeshz as well but that is going to help. >> meantime, it was interesting to see on tuesday this initial comment on monetary policy from alberto, the new fed official. not a voter, but did say that the fed should cut -- only cut after months, if not quarters, likely quarters of falling inflation, which people began to wonder, are we moving the goal posts a bit? >> they seem very comfortable just to underscore their patience. they see the cost of waiting as being very low. on the other hand, the data are what they are, and the market seems more fixated on that than what they're saying. >> yeah. >> when we come back, the message from china's central bank on rates. >>> also ahead, sara eisen's interview with the ceos of pfizer and palantir, who are speaking out about the middle east crisis. meta has news, darden, kroger, paramount,
rick santelli gave the auction an a-plus. >> that was 20s. >> which is an odd ball it have t . >> theew kid on the block. >> it shows you there is demand. there might be external factors for that. what's going on in europe could feed demand for the safety of treeshz as well but that is going to help. >> meantime, it was interesting to see on tuesday this initial comment on monetary policy from alberto, the new fed official. not a voter, but did say that the fed...
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Jun 20, 2024
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rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago. rick, the numbers, please. >> yes. 1 million 277,000. 1 million 277,000. that is the lightest going back to june of 2020. on the permit side, well, on the permit side we were looking for a number around 1.45 million. we end up with another miss at 1 million 386,000. 1 million 386,000 is the lightest level going back. also to june of 2020. initial jobless claims. 238,000. that's from a slightly revised 243,000. call it down 5,000, shall we? and 238,000 is the lightest level of just going back to the last week in may, because the rearview mirror of 243,000, well, that was the largest number going back to august of '23. now, let's look at continuing claims. 1 million 828,000. that's a little higher than expected. it follow as slightly revised 1 million 813,000, and that is the biggest number actually interesting. that's the biggest number. we have to go way back leer. th back here. biggest number since -- wow. really is something. november of 2021. november of 2021. all right. let's get lesser but still very important num
rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago. rick, the numbers, please. >> yes. 1 million 277,000. 1 million 277,000. that is the lightest going back to june of 2020. on the permit side, well, on the permit side we were looking for a number around 1.45 million. we end up with another miss at 1 million 386,000. 1 million 386,000 is the lightest level going back. also to june of 2020. initial jobless claims. 238,000. that's from a slightly revised 243,000. call it down 5,000, shall we?...
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Jun 18, 2024
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rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago.ek, too. >> absolutely. but i will point out, we are six basis points higher on the week on both 2s and 10s. we have popped just a bit, what else is popping on the wires is our retail sales numbers for the month of may. still, obviously, a saur number and expecting up .3% for our headline. this is the advance. we will get an updated version. we're only up 0.1%, and in the rearview mirror, we still have unchanged. and that's the second lowest reading of the year. we started down 1.1%. if we strip out autos, the numbers doesn't improve, it actually desserts to down 0.1%. we continue to be pressed a bit. revisions trickling in. last month, all the numbers are getting revised lower we'll go to those in a second. the number does improve. it's up 0.1%. and finally, the control number, which is inputted into higher up food chain data points like gdp, up 0.4%. up 0.4% is actually the best number since march when it was up 0.1%. all of these numbers have slipped a bit. now let's go to these rev
rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago.ek, too. >> absolutely. but i will point out, we are six basis points higher on the week on both 2s and 10s. we have popped just a bit, what else is popping on the wires is our retail sales numbers for the month of may. still, obviously, a saur number and expecting up .3% for our headline. this is the advance. we will get an updated version. we're only up 0.1%, and in the rearview mirror, we still have unchanged. and that's the second...
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Jun 27, 2024
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rick santelli? >> a long list of important number. start with initial jobless claims. 233,000.ng 239,000, which was a revision. 233,000 just to put some perspective. recent high-water mark 243,000. that was at beginning of the month. that was largest since october of '23. look at continuing claims, which have been staying above 1.8 million, remain there. 1 million 839,000 hotter than expected. rearview mirror lose a bit from 1.213 to 1.281 million. 1 million 839,000. that is the highest level going back to, aww, november of '21. november of '21. let's look at gdp. shall we? even though it is the third time around the block. this is first quarter. remains 1.4%. excuse me. that's expectations. that's 0.1 hotter than the last look, which was 1.3. this quarter 1.4% weakest going back to minus signs post-covid of second quarter of '22 when it was minus 0.6%. look at consumption. this is interesting. considering this is the third time we're looking at this, consumption, which was ramped up now goes right back down. jumped up to 2%. back down to 1.5. 1.5, slowest growth of consumption
rick santelli? >> a long list of important number. start with initial jobless claims. 233,000.ng 239,000, which was a revision. 233,000 just to put some perspective. recent high-water mark 243,000. that was at beginning of the month. that was largest since october of '23. look at continuing claims, which have been staying above 1.8 million, remain there. 1 million 839,000 hotter than expected. rearview mirror lose a bit from 1.213 to 1.281 million. 1 million 839,000. that is the highest...
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rick santelli here live at cme hq. happy friday! happy flag day! happy father's day!ourse, that follows an up 0.9. interesting here is that every month this year has been a positive number. we just reversed it. we finished last year with three negatives in a row and want to pay really close attention to all of the import prices. maybe it gives us a glimpse of demand. if you strip out petroleum it stays relatively the same. down 0.3% following up 0.7%. look at ex petroleum. export prices year over year basis expecting a number around 1.3%. up 1.1%. up 1.1% matching last month still unrevised. both combined are the best numbers in terms of the height of import prices. highest going back to dec of 2022. you can see that these prices have been rather tame. now, if we look at export side of the equation on a month over month basis, this is a big miss. down 0.6%. we were expect an up number. follows a slightly revised up 0.6%. down 0.6 is the biggest negative month or month export price since end of last year. gives a glimpse what's going on potentially overseas. finally on
rick santelli here live at cme hq. happy friday! happy flag day! happy father's day!ourse, that follows an up 0.9. interesting here is that every month this year has been a positive number. we just reversed it. we finished last year with three negatives in a row and want to pay really close attention to all of the import prices. maybe it gives us a glimpse of demand. if you strip out petroleum it stays relatively the same. down 0.3% following up 0.7%. look at ex petroleum. export prices year...
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Jun 28, 2024
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rick santelli is standing by with market reaction to that breaking inflation data.ropping. anying a expected or slightly better news, of course, pushing the metrics of fed easing in all of the associated market activity. if we look at income for may, up half of 1%. better than expected and juiciest level and ties march up half one a percent. started year 1.1%. spending, spending is less than expected. so the income's holding up. spending is dropping a bit. up 0.2, which actually was last month, but last month got revised only up 0.1. real spending adjustment for inflation up 0.3 in march. beginning of the year down 0.3. look at the price indices and this is the main reason we're seeing the market move that we are with lower interest rates. pce price index month over month unchanged as expected. but that does follow-up 0.3 unchanged equals november of last year to find a smaller number you're going down 0.4%. back in april of 2020. if you look at a month over month of the pce price, what we're looking at there. excuse me. year over year. excuse me. it's 2.6. that is
rick santelli is standing by with market reaction to that breaking inflation data.ropping. anying a expected or slightly better news, of course, pushing the metrics of fed easing in all of the associated market activity. if we look at income for may, up half of 1%. better than expected and juiciest level and ties march up half one a percent. started year 1.1%. spending, spending is less than expected. so the income's holding up. spending is dropping a bit. up 0.2, which actually was last month,...
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Jun 13, 2024
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. >>> we're back, welcome back, and rick santelli is with us with the numbers >> yes initial jobless's a big pop 242,000. we expected 225,000. last, a the look was 229,000, although still may get revised 242,000. that is the highest level. i have to go on way back machine here highest level since august of '23. since the second week of august of '23 we popped above 1.8 million on continuing claims. 1 million 820,000. 1 million 820,000. that's the heaviest level and i have to go back a long ways on this one 1 million 820,000 takes us all the way to -- november of '21. because we've had so many benchmark revisions that is really a big jump. now, let's look at the ppi data. wholesale, inflation for may, expected on headline to be up 0.1 is down 0.2, but not time to celebrate yet. down 0.1 in march. down 0.3 in october of last year to put some context there, but it is definitely in the right direction if you're looking for less inflation if we look at x food and energy, unchanged. much lower than expectations and in the rearview mirror half of 1% zero lightest. again, minus 0.1 in march
. >>> we're back, welcome back, and rick santelli is with us with the numbers >> yes initial jobless's a big pop 242,000. we expected 225,000. last, a the look was 229,000, although still may get revised 242,000. that is the highest level. i have to go on way back machine here highest level since august of '23. since the second week of august of '23 we popped above 1.8 million on continuing claims. 1 million 820,000. 1 million 820,000. that's the heaviest level and i have to go...