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Jul 11, 2024
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rick santelli is in chicago to break down the big moves we are seeing in bonds. >> yes, morgan.ou know, it was a huge day. if you look at a chart with 2s and 10s, i don't need to say much. when the wires had the 830 minus .1% on headline cpi, that was it. interest rates dropped like a rock and the equities of course pop. if you look at 2s and 10s on a four-month chart, if the 10% closes under 419 it's probably the lowest in four months. 2 is around pace for that. if we go above 419 towards the end of march, it was a huge number. just to keep it in perspective, if you look at the indices of cpi, there's two of them, core and headline. they're both still at all-time highs. the indices did not reflect that negative number because last month was so much more powerful. the compounding nature of inflation is a tough one. mike, nice to talk to you today. all right. what did you think of the numbers today under the context that equities continue to ride high even though we're looking at one cut, a euro is half a dozen. what's driving equities? >> inflation is the story since 2022. we've
rick santelli is in chicago to break down the big moves we are seeing in bonds. >> yes, morgan.ou know, it was a huge day. if you look at a chart with 2s and 10s, i don't need to say much. when the wires had the 830 minus .1% on headline cpi, that was it. interest rates dropped like a rock and the equities of course pop. if you look at 2s and 10s on a four-month chart, if the 10% closes under 419 it's probably the lowest in four months. 2 is around pace for that. if we go above 419...
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Jul 24, 2024
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who better to ask than rick santelli?le making a lot of what bill dudley said and how he's concerned about the economy and the ten-year yield seems to be moving higher and i don't know, what do you think is going on here? >> i'm not going to speak for mr. dudley, but what i can do is let's look at the three maturities on the yield curve. let's look at a two, a 10 and 30 on top of each other and you can clearly see that the two-year yield is more moderate. right now it's down about 3 1/2, four basis points and as you move alongs, a 30 is up almost six basis points. now let's look around at what's going on. nasdaq. the nasdaq is down, what? about 3%. many times you get a flight to safety and treasurys and that could be part of the reason short maturities like a two year and a three year are getting buying, keeping yields lower. in addition it's also getting a tailwind from the notion of comments like mr. dudley who is actually believing that there is a possibility of an ease at the july meeting. no matter how you slice it,
who better to ask than rick santelli?le making a lot of what bill dudley said and how he's concerned about the economy and the ten-year yield seems to be moving higher and i don't know, what do you think is going on here? >> i'm not going to speak for mr. dudley, but what i can do is let's look at the three maturities on the yield curve. let's look at a two, a 10 and 30 on top of each other and you can clearly see that the two-year yield is more moderate. right now it's down about 3 1/2,...
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Jul 10, 2024
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rick santelli, thank you. >>> over to contessa brewer. has a news update. >>> george clooney is joining calls for president joe biden to drop out of the race over concerns over his age. just weeks after co-hosting a multi-million dollar fund-raiser for the president, he wrote the joe biden he was with last month was not the joe biden he knew in 2020. >>> police have arrested a man wanted in a crossbow attack that killed the wife and daughter of a bbc commentator. the officers found the three victims, all died at the scene. they think the man was known to the three women, but they have not released other details. >>> alexandria ocasio cortez introduced articles of impeachment against two supreme court justices, posing a threat to the american rupe of law. >> the articles, however are extremely unlikely to get out of the gop-controlled chamber. jon, back to you. >>> still ahead, battle of the big box chains. piper sandler is bullish on one retail giant and not so much the other. we'll talk to the analyst hi oscalls, when "power lunch" rurge
rick santelli, thank you. >>> over to contessa brewer. has a news update. >>> george clooney is joining calls for president joe biden to drop out of the race over concerns over his age. just weeks after co-hosting a multi-million dollar fund-raiser for the president, he wrote the joe biden he was with last month was not the joe biden he knew in 2020. >>> police have arrested a man wanted in a crossbow attack that killed the wife and daughter of a bbc commentator. the...
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Jul 26, 2024
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rick santelli is stracking all the action from chicago., is it a green light for september? >> it certainly looks like that, dom. you know, fed fund futures is utilized for many things. maybe beyond its real reach, but for the next meeting especially when you move within that two week window, the accuracy is in fallible. july obviously not priced in. we're not two weeks from september, but september's heavily priced in unless something extreme happens i can't imagine the fed would deny the market something its already priced in. the best way its communicates its ideas and strategies with all investors around the globe. what a week. you pointed out. pce inflation expectsed. michigan, sentiment challenged and huge moves in short maturities. the twos, 438. down 13 basis points on the week. 420 for tens. 0.2 spread moved roughly 10 basis points. open it up to one month and you see we've gone from basically minus 50 to minus 18. that is a dramatic move and really underscores the dynamic of the fed and dollar/yen. dollar closing three-month low
rick santelli is stracking all the action from chicago., is it a green light for september? >> it certainly looks like that, dom. you know, fed fund futures is utilized for many things. maybe beyond its real reach, but for the next meeting especially when you move within that two week window, the accuracy is in fallible. july obviously not priced in. we're not two weeks from september, but september's heavily priced in unless something extreme happens i can't imagine the fed would deny...
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Jul 15, 2024
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rick santelli in chicago. hey, rick. >> yes, not santoli. at the cbo. little late, we saw chairman bernanke in front of the economic club of new york. as you look at the charts, you can see at 12:40 eastern we had vol. the initial reaction was hope, rates went down. ultimately, rates are higher across the curve post-powell. the big news today, yield curves are flattening. no matter what combination you pick, two to tens, low 20s, two to 30s hovering right around sf zero. it hasn't been there since january. we know why. the market will pay a lot more attention to the election without all the blaring negativity of main street media. jim, obviously, it's been a wild weekend. i'm older. joe kernen is older. we all remember what happened in '60s and '70s, assassinations. we never went want to get back to that. it did have a minor impact on the market. >> you have to be watching golds, there's a break-even story happening under the hood. i think people are getting a little -- a little more nervous about what this means. it's not just about trump getting elect
rick santelli in chicago. hey, rick. >> yes, not santoli. at the cbo. little late, we saw chairman bernanke in front of the economic club of new york. as you look at the charts, you can see at 12:40 eastern we had vol. the initial reaction was hope, rates went down. ultimately, rates are higher across the curve post-powell. the big news today, yield curves are flattening. no matter what combination you pick, two to tens, low 20s, two to 30s hovering right around sf zero. it hasn't been...
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Jul 30, 2024
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let's get to rick santelli in chicago. some are siting what's happening in israel as well, rick.g. >> you know, there's a lot of reasons to see interest rates moving down. what's going on the middle east and gio politics is one. we all know the fed at least at this point certainly seems to be flagging rate cut next meeting, not the one tomorrow or the first day today finishes up tomorrow. and if you look at intraday of 10s, what's interesting is we're down three bases points. we're pacing right now for 4.5 month low yield close. 2s are pacing for six-month low yield close. what's really interesting today is the momentum trade, whether it's geopolitical or central bank driven, we now see all treasury yields open 10 year up to a two day chart. all treasury yields now are trading below yesterday's low yields or have traded below yesterday's low yields. and that really makes a big difference. we see that there still is urgency for investors to jump into many of these funds of course, fixed income, looking at the rally that's going to continue as the fed moves towards a more sustained
let's get to rick santelli in chicago. some are siting what's happening in israel as well, rick.g. >> you know, there's a lot of reasons to see interest rates moving down. what's going on the middle east and gio politics is one. we all know the fed at least at this point certainly seems to be flagging rate cut next meeting, not the one tomorrow or the first day today finishes up tomorrow. and if you look at intraday of 10s, what's interesting is we're down three bases points. we're pacing...
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Jul 2, 2024
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rick santelli tracking the action. rick? >> hi, jon. yes. i have to make a comment about the chairman, wonderful interview with all the leading monetary policy people in the world including christine lagarde and chairman powell, word disinflationary came up so many times. that's monetary policy fed phrase they love it. it means less inflation. but, average guy on the street, he's not interested in dis-inflaigs. he wants deflation. there's a huge difference. one is less of inflation. the other is a reversing of the compounding effects of inflation. public is not going to be happy, but the fed will be. if you look at interest rates, last month had some very important moves. if you look at the one month in the 10s and let's play a game here. look at the left side, look at the right side. you see the hump on the left. the hump on the right. okay. now let's do that same one month, but let's put a 2 year. now on the 2 year the hump on the left, you have nothing on the right. super significant. now let's put the spread out there. okay. here is one
rick santelli tracking the action. rick? >> hi, jon. yes. i have to make a comment about the chairman, wonderful interview with all the leading monetary policy people in the world including christine lagarde and chairman powell, word disinflationary came up so many times. that's monetary policy fed phrase they love it. it means less inflation. but, average guy on the street, he's not interested in dis-inflaigs. he wants deflation. there's a huge difference. one is less of inflation. the...
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Jul 17, 2024
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rick santelli standing by in chicago. >> yields are near unchanged. been a little higher, a little lower. as you look at a chart starting in february, two-year notes, we had a five-month-year close. same true for the ten. the ten-year going back to march, hovering at a four-month low yield close. why? just think, hoelgd on to most of their gains that really were incited by the drop in cpi last thursday. now, we can talk about the strong policy president that may be gaining in the polls. definitely seems to be having an effect on markets. one of those is foreign ex exchange. the strong dollar giving way to a weaker dollar, being led by the dollar yen. here is the two-week chart. what you want to look at here is the middle of the chart. that was thursday, friday of last week, perceived intervention not confirmed. was there intervention again last night? possibly. these are really big moves. if you open the chart up, we're hovering near, actually a little longer than a one-month high for the yen glens the dollar, going back to a close on the 6th of june.
rick santelli standing by in chicago. >> yields are near unchanged. been a little higher, a little lower. as you look at a chart starting in february, two-year notes, we had a five-month-year close. same true for the ten. the ten-year going back to march, hovering at a four-month low yield close. why? just think, hoelgd on to most of their gains that really were incited by the drop in cpi last thursday. now, we can talk about the strong policy president that may be gaining in the polls....
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Jul 23, 2024
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rick santelli, what does that tell you?, it tells me that yields probably are close to an area they're going to hold because we had super weak data. philly fed not manufacturing, the service side, the lowest level since 2020. everything we had today including existing home sales was weak. a super strong auction. all those should push yields down. granted, they pushed a bit more on short maturities, like 2s, 3s, 5s. if you look at intraday of 2s, that opened up to a two day, we're trading below yesterday's lows on that maturity, all the way out to the seven year. but, down three bases points and two 30 years are almost unchanged. the point is that these dynamics are not only built into the market, they're built in plus when you account for the fed. and there's another central bank whose meeting is coming up, the bank of japan. that is next week. look at the dollar yen chart. the yen is on base to have the best close since the 6th of june. we'll call it 1.5 months. why? well, because there's a significant amount of nervousnes
rick santelli, what does that tell you?, it tells me that yields probably are close to an area they're going to hold because we had super weak data. philly fed not manufacturing, the service side, the lowest level since 2020. everything we had today including existing home sales was weak. a super strong auction. all those should push yields down. granted, they pushed a bit more on short maturities, like 2s, 3s, 5s. if you look at intraday of 2s, that opened up to a two day, we're trading below...
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Jul 5, 2024
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rick santelli is around the corner in chicago. rick? >> absolutely, tyler.rom the fed. look at a one year chart at the unemployment rate, at 4.1% it's nearly a three-year high going back to november of '21. it doesn't end there. let's look at a one-year chart of average hourly earnings. dipping under 4% at 3.9, it is a three-year low. and how did all of that play out in the treasury complex? look at twos and tens, look at the volatility at 8:30 eastern, up, down, but ultimately here we are on the lows, basically close to the lows for the entire week. as a matter of fact, let's open the chart up for the week because this is really guys incredible. we are now at 460 in a two year which means we're down 15. 1-5 basis points on the week. and the ten year not far from that at 427 it's down 9 on the day, it's down 13 on the week. these are big moves that underscore the range in ten year is basically 4.25 value, 4.5% is where the resistance s and what's really important is next week, guess what, we have threes, tens and 30s auction which always cements the eyeballs
rick santelli is around the corner in chicago. rick? >> absolutely, tyler.rom the fed. look at a one year chart at the unemployment rate, at 4.1% it's nearly a three-year high going back to november of '21. it doesn't end there. let's look at a one-year chart of average hourly earnings. dipping under 4% at 3.9, it is a three-year low. and how did all of that play out in the treasury complex? look at twos and tens, look at the volatility at 8:30 eastern, up, down, but ultimately here we...
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Jul 1, 2024
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let's get out to rick santelli in chicago for more. rick? >> hi, kelly.en a wild session for treasury yields. yields in general. now, if you look at a two-year and ten-year on one chart for the last six hours, it should jump out at you, right toward the middle of that char is the big drop in yields that occurred at 10:00 eastern. that makes perfect sense. we had the pmis, and the pmis were weaker than expected, but especially prices paid. and that definitely incited buying, pushing yields down. well, that didn't live very long, because right around 10:30 eastern, we saw the supreme court hit the wires in terms of the immunity decision. and i hate to get political, but yields moved up then. now, why would they do that? there's a couple of reasons being talked about. one is that that potentially could give a sweep to the conservatives to republicans and that would lead to higher deficits. i think it's so much more simple than that. mainstream media will definitely talk a whole lot more and write a whole lot more about debt and deficits with the trump admini
let's get out to rick santelli in chicago for more. rick? >> hi, kelly.en a wild session for treasury yields. yields in general. now, if you look at a two-year and ten-year on one chart for the last six hours, it should jump out at you, right toward the middle of that char is the big drop in yields that occurred at 10:00 eastern. that makes perfect sense. we had the pmis, and the pmis were weaker than expected, but especially prices paid. and that definitely incited buying, pushing yields...
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Jul 3, 2024
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david, will, melissa lee, back to you. >> rick, thank you. rick santelli. continue that record run in the second half, at least the handful of days we've had thus far. the s&p closing above 5500 for the first time ever. the nasdaq hitting a new high today, coming off the 22nd record close of the year. so that age old question we like to ask here numerous times a day. how much more room is there to run? director of global macro yurin timber joins us. we get started late in theks week with the banks. have you seen any erosion and what are your expectations in terms of earnings as we head into another season. >> good morning. it's interesting that the earnings estimates. are usually drifting lower by now because as we know, companies like to guide lower and surprise the estimates, they like to under promise and over deliver. the calendar year estimate for this year and next year are rising when they normally would be falling. the earning cycle seems to be in a sweet spot here where earnings that drifted lower last year are accelerating higher. so the q2 year o
david, will, melissa lee, back to you. >> rick, thank you. rick santelli. continue that record run in the second half, at least the handful of days we've had thus far. the s&p closing above 5500 for the first time ever. the nasdaq hitting a new high today, coming off the 22nd record close of the year. so that age old question we like to ask here numerous times a day. how much more room is there to run? director of global macro yurin timber joins us. we get started late in theks week...
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Jul 25, 2024
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rick santelli, we are debating this last hour. i i'm. >> what's interesting is the reversal of almost every. and that's reversusing, of course. we had a you lower high yesterday, but still relatively firm jim, what's changed? why did yesterday look so explosive? the vix has been hibernating, and all of a sudden it's like yesterday didn't happen. what are you thinking? >> there's a lot of things going on with dispersion. the rotation we have seen away from tech has been driven by -- there's a ton of supply on the index level, the s&p 500 specifically, that's pinging relatively to the rest of the market index. that means certain things means something mass to go in the opposite direction has led to a massive swede in the russell. the problem is that it's not an equal reaction on both sides. everybody has piled into the ai names, and now when you get a painful rho tase, it can really. it's vulnerable, but out in september, out in november, there's a lot of vol supply. eventually the index will pin as well the ai movement, in our opin
rick santelli, we are debating this last hour. i i'm. >> what's interesting is the reversal of almost every. and that's reversusing, of course. we had a you lower high yesterday, but still relatively firm jim, what's changed? why did yesterday look so explosive? the vix has been hibernating, and all of a sudden it's like yesterday didn't happen. what are you thinking? >> there's a lot of things going on with dispersion. the rotation we have seen away from tech has been driven by --...
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Jul 31, 2024
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let's get to rick santelli. hey, rick. the company has had.hank you. >> thanks, guys, appreciate it. >> chicago pmi is on the tape let's get to rick santelli. >> the weakness continues. chicago pmi for the month of july expected around 45, comes in at 45.3. yes, it's a smidge better than expectations but it's lower than 4 47.4 in the rear view mirror and this is the 23rd month with one reading above 50 that was november of last year. weakness and employment cross-index came in light. adp the weakest going back to january of this year. we can see yields moving lower, extremely lower today in front of the fed ten year getting closer to 4% and if you look at two year we are now at 433, down 3. we're comping the february and two year to march in ten year and "squawk on the street" will return after a short break. hi, i'm eileen. i live in vancouver, washington and i write mystery novels. as i was writing, i found that i just wasn't sharp and that doesn't work when you're writing a mystery and i knew i needed to do something so i started taking pre
let's get to rick santelli. hey, rick. the company has had.hank you. >> thanks, guys, appreciate it. >> chicago pmi is on the tape let's get to rick santelli. >> the weakness continues. chicago pmi for the month of july expected around 45, comes in at 45.3. yes, it's a smidge better than expectations but it's lower than 4 47.4 in the rear view mirror and this is the 23rd month with one reading above 50 that was november of last year. weakness and employment cross-index came in...
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Jul 18, 2024
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the s&p and nasdaq down fractionally in the bond market, yields are moving slightly higher rick santelliing us from chicago with more there. rick >> yes, jon. slightly is the perfect word to describe what yields are doing to the upside today. let's start at the beginning continuing claims, sixth consecutive week above 1.8 million. if we pull out a chart, we can clearly see that we are now at levels that we last saw in november of '21. let's talk it 3 1/2 years. if we look at what's going on with the 2s to 10 spread, if there was ever a trade i think really is the election trade, this would be it why? because less than a month ago, the 25th of june, we were at minus 50 basis points. we have cut that in half that's a one-month chart we're holding on it does reflect the notion that we are going to see debates and issues of taxation and the budget and spending and entitlements and welfare, all are going to focus on interest rates in many ways this yield curve trade shows there's going to be more sluggishness for rates to go down on the long end, which will reflect some of those focuses and c
the s&p and nasdaq down fractionally in the bond market, yields are moving slightly higher rick santelliing us from chicago with more there. rick >> yes, jon. slightly is the perfect word to describe what yields are doing to the upside today. let's start at the beginning continuing claims, sixth consecutive week above 1.8 million. if we pull out a chart, we can clearly see that we are now at levels that we last saw in november of '21. let's talk it 3 1/2 years. if we look at what's...
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Jul 24, 2024
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let's get to rick santelli. >> yes indeed, and also, bank of canada just cut for the second consecutive5 basis points, down to 4.5%. s&p global, july preliminary reads hitting the wires. on manufacturing, not good news. back below 50. 49.5. the lowest of the year. lowest since december of last year. if we look at services, a completely different story. 56. 56 takes us to the highest level to march of '22. march of '22. so, that is cooking in grease, and of course, affected the composite in a positive way. the composite is 55.0 and 55.0 would be the highest read since april of '22. we still have new home sales at the top of the hour and 70 billion five-year notes to hit the auction block at 1:00 eastern. "squawk on the street" will return after a short break. >>> it's been a busy week for amc, the debt refinance and a preannounce on q2 with weaker than expected numbers. they do say the prolonged actors and writers strike of '23 reduced the numbers of movies released in many 2024. shares down 7%. stop trading with jim is next. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. m
let's get to rick santelli. >> yes indeed, and also, bank of canada just cut for the second consecutive5 basis points, down to 4.5%. s&p global, july preliminary reads hitting the wires. on manufacturing, not good news. back below 50. 49.5. the lowest of the year. lowest since december of last year. if we look at services, a completely different story. 56. 56 takes us to the highest level to march of '22. march of '22. so, that is cooking in grease, and of course, affected the...
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Jul 10, 2024
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rick santelli is here with reaction and pro-action, rick. >> yes.l, it's like we're in an alternate universe. auctions of late have been going extremely well. this was no exception. 39 million and reopened tens, meaning we're adding one issue originally created in may of this year. so technically, these are nine-year, 10-month securities. the yield on those 39 billion tens, 4.276. where is the one issued market? a basis point high er 4.286. so the government is a seller, it priced quite well. if you look at all the internals to the auction, every single one of them is strong. i'll point out a couple that really caught my eye on the direct bidders. those were large pensions and insurance companies that bode direct. 20.9%, that equals october of last year. but to find a higher number than 20.9%, you have to go back to october of '22. and the dealer takedown, well, the ten auction average is 16%. think buffet here. the customers cleared the buffet table because the dealers only took 11.5%. that's the least the dealers have taken since august of '23. so
rick santelli is here with reaction and pro-action, rick. >> yes.l, it's like we're in an alternate universe. auctions of late have been going extremely well. this was no exception. 39 million and reopened tens, meaning we're adding one issue originally created in may of this year. so technically, these are nine-year, 10-month securities. the yield on those 39 billion tens, 4.276. where is the one issued market? a basis point high er 4.286. so the government is a seller, it priced quite...
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Jul 18, 2024
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rick santelli thank you very much the 10-year as rick noted 4.173.s this morning, ecb coming out as expected unchanged on interest rates and then everyone wants to know what's going to happen in september? well, president lagarde, like fed chair powell, is not precommitting to a particular rate path right now. they sound very similar after they were on stage together in sintra a few weeks ago, even though the ecb, unlike the fed, move already to cut rates. here's what she said about the decision from here eye. >> i see very much the discussions we had this morning on the one hand, on the other hand. >> that's it on the one hand they still have sticky services inflation, on the other hand they are continuing to monitor in the weakness and the downturn in the economy and balance out the risks like the federal reserve is that's the predicament the market still sees cuts for this year. the euro is just slightly weaker we have that this morning. we have jobless claims which sort of resumed their uptrend a i little bit, nothing alarming, but the number of
rick santelli thank you very much the 10-year as rick noted 4.173.s this morning, ecb coming out as expected unchanged on interest rates and then everyone wants to know what's going to happen in september? well, president lagarde, like fed chair powell, is not precommitting to a particular rate path right now. they sound very similar after they were on stage together in sintra a few weeks ago, even though the ecb, unlike the fed, move already to cut rates. here's what she said about the...
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Jul 25, 2024
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rick santelli, how did the auction go? >> well, you know what? all that green in equities put all the investors in a pretty good mood, because they really like the seven-year auction. they were grabbing them like french pastries today. we're talking about 44 billion seven years completing 183 billion in coupon supply. the grade i gave it, a-minus. if you look at all the eternals, the bid to cover, the best since october of last year. the indirect, best since august of last year. the dealers took the smallest amount since june of last year. the only fly in the ointment was a bit light on direct bidders, you know, the pension funds, the insurance entities. but those whichentities would r have tens and 30s. but it really was a good auction. i think yesterday's auction was weak based on the equity markets putting a bit of fear inside the investors. today, it was the exact opposite. seven year is always a bit of an oddity on the yield curve. it's slowly starting to build enough pool of liquidity to be taken seriously, but it was a very good auction. a
rick santelli, how did the auction go? >> well, you know what? all that green in equities put all the investors in a pretty good mood, because they really like the seven-year auction. they were grabbing them like french pastries today. we're talking about 44 billion seven years completing 183 billion in coupon supply. the grade i gave it, a-minus. if you look at all the eternals, the bid to cover, the best since october of last year. the indirect, best since august of last year. the...
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Jul 1, 2024
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rick santelli. >> yes, thank you, david.cturing, and this, of course, is going to replace the mid-month read, which was 51.7, now gets finalized in permanent marker at 51.6. it remains the best month-over-month positive change since march of this year and do recall, this is the sixth read for 2024. all six are an expansion above 50, whereas last year, in 2023, we only had two of 12 above 50. but we continue to look at all the isms that will be coming out, as david pointed out, and do look at the ten-year and two-year, which have really sold off a bit this morning, especially pre-opening of the equities. we see that yields are up about three basis points in the front, about four basis points in the longer maturities, and "squawk on the street" will return after a very short break. >>> that is a live shot of the supreme court of the united states. final decisions due out in the next hour. that will include the blockbuster ruling on president trump's absolute immunity claim. we of course will bring you that once we hear what it
rick santelli. >> yes, thank you, david.cturing, and this, of course, is going to replace the mid-month read, which was 51.7, now gets finalized in permanent marker at 51.6. it remains the best month-over-month positive change since march of this year and do recall, this is the sixth read for 2024. all six are an expansion above 50, whereas last year, in 2023, we only had two of 12 above 50. but we continue to look at all the isms that will be coming out, as david pointed out, and do look...
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Jul 26, 2024
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to rick santelli for that. good morning, rick. >> good morning, david. michigan sentiment so they will replace the mid month read. mid month read was 66.0, but remains the weakest since november of last year. mid month read still remains the lightest level since december of 22. what may lie ahead in the form of expectations, mid monday read, 7.2, this moved up to 668.8. to find a lower number you have to go back to december of last year. 66 let's get to the inflation numbers which saw mild improvement in the pce. if you look at one-year inflation, 2.9, remains at 2.9. what's notable the lightest one-year inflation based on the surveys going back to december of 2020. and finally, on the five to ten-year outlook it moved up. mid month read 2.9, now moved up to 3%. 3% equals where we were in april, may and june. we started the year out at 2.9%. yields, well dramatic movement on short end which explains much of the deinverting of the yield curve. 4.38 in twos, down 13 on the week. 4.19 for 10s, 4.20, down on the week. >> these sentiment numbers are much lowe
to rick santelli for that. good morning, rick. >> good morning, david. michigan sentiment so they will replace the mid month read. mid month read was 66.0, but remains the weakest since november of last year. mid month read still remains the lightest level since december of 22. what may lie ahead in the form of expectations, mid monday read, 7.2, this moved up to 668.8. to find a lower number you have to go back to december of last year. 66 let's get to the inflation numbers which saw...
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Jul 12, 2024
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rick santelli tracking that for us. >> yes, tyler. yesterday the cpi excited the market. you look week-to-date of two-year you can see how rates just dropped. today rates largely ignore a much warmer ppi with warmer revisions. it did pay attention, as ron point out, to the weaker confidence and, of course, the inflation readings within university of michigan. open the chart up to first week in february because we're on pace for a four-month low yield close in twos. open it up year-to-date,ly draw your attention to something significant. the high close for the year, that's been 5.04. the low yield close has been 4.14. the average is 4.59%, which is where we were hovering around 4.60 all week until yesterday's cooler than expected cpi. let's look at week-to-date of tens, where it's been spending its trading time around 4.28 to 4.30 until yesterday. open the chart up to march 27th, we're on pace for 3 1/2 month low yield close. today, the low yield close 3.88. the high yield close 4.87. the average is 4.29%. we are now closing the week below the midpoint of the year and shor
rick santelli tracking that for us. >> yes, tyler. yesterday the cpi excited the market. you look week-to-date of two-year you can see how rates just dropped. today rates largely ignore a much warmer ppi with warmer revisions. it did pay attention, as ron point out, to the weaker confidence and, of course, the inflation readings within university of michigan. open the chart up to first week in february because we're on pace for a four-month low yield close in twos. open it up...
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Jul 24, 2024
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rick santelli has the results. >> this was a very strange auction again. let's go to the beginning, 70 billion of five-year notes hit the auction block. i gave it a grade of c. but what's fascinating, if you look at the bid-to-cover, all the internals, they were all very good. it was the pricing that was an issue. it tailed by a basis point, meaning higher yield, lower price. so the yield was 4.121 was the yield at the auction. but the one issued was trading around 4.11%. if it wasn't for pricing, if it priced exactly with the one issued was, this might have been an a-minus auction. it tells me that the metrics was good, but there was no intensity in terms of bidding. there's a little bit of nervousness out there. if you look at the twos to tens spread today, it's narrowed rather significantly. it's hovering right under minus 16 basis points. should it close here, it will basically be the narrowest, the least inverted since october. but if it's one more basis point less negative, meaning if it closes under minus 15, it will be basically the flattest it's b
rick santelli has the results. >> this was a very strange auction again. let's go to the beginning, 70 billion of five-year notes hit the auction block. i gave it a grade of c. but what's fascinating, if you look at the bid-to-cover, all the internals, they were all very good. it was the pricing that was an issue. it tailed by a basis point, meaning higher yield, lower price. so the yield was 4.121 was the yield at the auction. but the one issued was trading around 4.11%. if it wasn't for...
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Jul 23, 2024
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rick santelli on the auction results.ator schumer and representative jeffreys are speaking right now. let's listen in to see if they will endorse kamala harris. >> to do so from the grassroots up, not top down. we deeply respected that, hakim and i did. she said she would work to earn the support of our party, and boy, has she done so in quick order. vice president harris has done a truly impressive job, securing the majority of delegates needed to win the democratic party's nomination to be our next president of the united states. the vast majority of my senators quickly and enthusiastically endorsed her. so now that the process has played out, from the grassroots bottom up, we are here today to throw our support behind vice president kamala harris. i'm clapping. you don't have to. >> again, that's new york senator schumer. he and jefferies, we can expect, are throwing both of their support behind kamala harris to become the presidential nominee. emily wilkins is standing by. equally throwing their support behind harris.
rick santelli on the auction results.ator schumer and representative jeffreys are speaking right now. let's listen in to see if they will endorse kamala harris. >> to do so from the grassroots up, not top down. we deeply respected that, hakim and i did. she said she would work to earn the support of our party, and boy, has she done so in quick order. vice president harris has done a truly impressive job, securing the majority of delegates needed to win the democratic party's nomination to...
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Jul 1, 2024
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rick santelli steepening after the trump-related scotus decision and they spread behind me reaching a peak, as for trump's odds while retaking the climb while it has fallen over the past week and you can see the predicted odds. chewy picking up earlier gains and aka roaring kitty disclosed a 7% stake. he's now chewy's third largest shareholder and he alluded to the position last tuesday with the picture of the cartoon dog on x. the shares were up on the news as much as 34% and finished their day lower and overall down about 12% since then. now, let's dig further into the june manufacturing data. s&p global reporting business confidence hitting a 19-month low while the index came in at 48.5 missing street estimates and further in contraction, also showed easing inflation with the ism's selling prices increasing at the slowest pace so far this year and one of my next guest says that hopes to set up for the september rate cut. joining us is the chief economist at nationwide and the chief investment officer of morgan stanley investment management and also our own steve liesman who is the
rick santelli steepening after the trump-related scotus decision and they spread behind me reaching a peak, as for trump's odds while retaking the climb while it has fallen over the past week and you can see the predicted odds. chewy picking up earlier gains and aka roaring kitty disclosed a 7% stake. he's now chewy's third largest shareholder and he alluded to the position last tuesday with the picture of the cartoon dog on x. the shares were up on the news as much as 34% and finished their...
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Jul 31, 2024
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. >> rick santelli, thank you very much. more and more experts joining in calls for a september rate cut, including a number of our mock fed panel. economist claudia sahm, creator of the sahm rule, recession, indicator, and the markets are pricing it in, too. so what should we expect to hear from fed chair powell? we'll ask her, we'll ask claudia when "power lunch" returns. dave's company just scored the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. high five! high five! -i'm in a call... it's 5 years of reliable, gig speed internet... five years of advanced security... five years of a great rate that won't change. yep, dave's feeling it. but it's only for a limited time. five years? -five years? introducing the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. powering 5 years of savings. powering possibilities. >>> welcome back to "power lunch." there's a look at the markets that broke out to fresh session highs, but just by an ever-so-slight amount as we await chair powell's news conference. but right now stocks are holding o
. >> rick santelli, thank you very much. more and more experts joining in calls for a september rate cut, including a number of our mock fed panel. economist claudia sahm, creator of the sahm rule, recession, indicator, and the markets are pricing it in, too. so what should we expect to hear from fed chair powell? we'll ask her, we'll ask claudia when "power lunch" returns. dave's company just scored the comcast business 5-year price lock guarantee. high five! high five! -i'm in...
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Jul 17, 2024
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over to rick santelli in chicago. >> yes.alized units in better. 1 million 353,000, following an unrevised as of this point 1 million 277,000. notable here is that last month's number in both starts and permits were the lowest levels, lowest levels in four years going back to june of 2020. 1.353 million does take us up a bit. now the biggest number just since april when it was literally very close to that number. 1 million 352,000. now, on the permit side, very similar scenario. expecting 1 million 400,000. ended up with 1 million 446,000. so a bit better than expected. in the rearview mirror, starting to get subtle revisions, and the revisions really don't make a huge difference on comps. look at starts, 1 million 314 the new number. that's still lowest level since june of 2020, and last month's 1 million 386 on permits moving to 1 million 399,000. that really doesn't change the metric much either. what we are really looking at here is a bump from a very low level in both starts and permits. when we consider what's going on
over to rick santelli in chicago. >> yes.alized units in better. 1 million 353,000, following an unrevised as of this point 1 million 277,000. notable here is that last month's number in both starts and permits were the lowest levels, lowest levels in four years going back to june of 2020. 1.353 million does take us up a bit. now the biggest number just since april when it was literally very close to that number. 1 million 352,000. now, on the permit side, very similar scenario. expecting...
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Jul 11, 2024
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rick santelli in recent sessions -- rick santelli standing by in chicago. can't believe it.be next year. right? all right. now looking at the wires. hot numbers coming out. june cpi -- down 0.1% on headlines. down 0.1%. that kwould equal may 2020. find a lower number go to april of 2020 when it was at its extreme of minus 0.8. that is the first time we've had a minus sign there. that's actually deflation. not necessarily disinflation. now, strip out the all-important food and energy, it's up 0.1. up 0.1. that's a little cooler than we were expecting. up 0.1 would be the lightest going back to january of '21. and august of '21 would have equalled up 0.1. look at year over year. year over year has been a bit lower in the past, and now it equals that level. 3%. 3%. 3% equals that low i referenced before i saw the data. june of 2023. def to find a smaller number, march '21. 2.6 year over year core, 3.3%. that holds the moniker and also the lightest level going back to april of '21. look at claims. shall we? initial claims 222,000. minus 17,000 from the revised 239,000. 222,000 i
rick santelli in recent sessions -- rick santelli standing by in chicago. can't believe it.be next year. right? all right. now looking at the wires. hot numbers coming out. june cpi -- down 0.1% on headlines. down 0.1%. that kwould equal may 2020. find a lower number go to april of 2020 when it was at its extreme of minus 0.8. that is the first time we've had a minus sign there. that's actually deflation. not necessarily disinflation. now, strip out the all-important food and energy, it's up...
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Jul 23, 2024
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. >>> we do have econ data crossing the tape and to that we'll go to rick santelli.morning, rick. >> earlier we had affiliate at 19.1 weakest month over month since december 2020 and the manufacturing index comes in for july at minus 17. that's the weakest going back four years plus to may of 2020 and if we look at the service side of the equation it comes in at minus nine. that follows minus 11 which was now changed to and revised to minus eight which means we haven't had a positive number on the service side of richmond fed going all of the way back to august of last year. now if we look at interest rates, this is one of the reasons they remained a bit under earn from ypressure, but the weak data it's surprising they haven't pushed yields down farther. we also have existing home sales out and for that we go to diana olick. >> rick, existing home sales in june dropped 5.4% in may to a rate of 3.89 million units and that's lower than the street expected and sales down 5.4% in june of last year all according to realtors and these are closed sales and based on contract
. >>> we do have econ data crossing the tape and to that we'll go to rick santelli.morning, rick. >> earlier we had affiliate at 19.1 weakest month over month since december 2020 and the manufacturing index comes in for july at minus 17. that's the weakest going back four years plus to may of 2020 and if we look at the service side of the equation it comes in at minus nine. that follows minus 11 which was now changed to and revised to minus eight which means we haven't had a...
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Jul 16, 2024
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let's get to rick santelli. hey, rick. >> good morning, carl.ted to be up 0.5% delivered. up 0.5%. what's unique here is that's the biggest build in business inventories going back to august of '22 nearly two years. yields have moved up since the stronger than expected retail sales and revises. we have another number out july read on national association of home builders market. for that we will head east to diana olick. >> rick, home builder sentiment dropped one point to 42 in july. that's a miss. the street was looking for a one-point gain. anything below 50 is considered negative sentiment. this is the lowest reading since december of last year. of the indexes three components, current sales conditions fell 1 point from june to 47, buyer traffic also fell 1 point to 27 and sales expectations over the next six months rose 1 point to 48. and that last one and the current overall number, is all about mortgage interest rates. the 30-year fixed was in the low 7% range for all of june, but then began dropping in july from 7.14% to now 6.81%. accor
let's get to rick santelli. hey, rick. >> good morning, carl.ted to be up 0.5% delivered. up 0.5%. what's unique here is that's the biggest build in business inventories going back to august of '22 nearly two years. yields have moved up since the stronger than expected retail sales and revises. we have another number out july read on national association of home builders market. for that we will head east to diana olick. >> rick, home builder sentiment dropped one point to 42 in...
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Jul 17, 2024
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rick santelli here live at cme hq with the last breaking news of the morning.l production for june up double expectations, up 0.6%. in the rear view mirror, the up 0.9% became up 0.7% so we see positive numbers on industrial production, especially considering we started the year down 0.9%. now, if we look at utilization rates, a nice little pop there as well. 78.4 expected. it moves up and confirms now at 78.8. that is the best level of utilization since september of last year, although in the rear view mirror, we did downgrade last month from 78.7 to 78.3. right now, we have a 4 4.46 two-year. longer duration treasurys are up in yield but not as much. dollar index taking a big hit today, and the yen has had a couple of good rally days since the beginning of the wk.ee "squawk on the street" will return after a short break. this is clem. clem's not a morning person. or a night person. or a...people person. but he is an "i can solve this in 4 different ways" person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with princip
rick santelli here live at cme hq with the last breaking news of the morning.l production for june up double expectations, up 0.6%. in the rear view mirror, the up 0.9% became up 0.7% so we see positive numbers on industrial production, especially considering we started the year down 0.9%. now, if we look at utilization rates, a nice little pop there as well. 78.4 expected. it moves up and confirms now at 78.8. that is the best level of utilization since september of last year, although in the...
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Jul 30, 2024
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. >>> consumer confidence out a few moments ago and rick santelli has the numbers for us.ot only that, job openings and labor turnover known as jolts, jolts coming in near expectations, 8, 184, 000 better than expectations and you see interest rates moving up a bit. not only this a bit better, june read, last month it was revised from 8, 140,000, up to 8, 230,000. which peens last month is the best month since march when it was 8, 355,000 and, of course, this fits right in a little bit lower, and it turns out that now this is the lowest level since april. but for the revision. if you look at consumer confidence, these are july reads. 100.3 on headline, better than anticipated although a big downward revision in the rearview mirror. 100.4 for june becomes 97.8. that makes 103 the best level since may when it was 101.3. if we look at the present situation, 133.6, sequentially following a down revise, 141.5 that becomes 135.3. now 133.6. that is the lightest leveling if back to april of back to april of 2021. expectations 78.2, another downward revision to june, 73 becomes 72
. >>> consumer confidence out a few moments ago and rick santelli has the numbers for us.ot only that, job openings and labor turnover known as jolts, jolts coming in near expectations, 8, 184, 000 better than expectations and you see interest rates moving up a bit. not only this a bit better, june read, last month it was revised from 8, 140,000, up to 8, 230,000. which peens last month is the best month since march when it was 8, 355,000 and, of course, this fits right in a little bit...
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Jul 10, 2024
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wholesale trade numbers are crossing the table, let's get to rick santelli with the numbers.ventories, the mid month read was up .6%. it remains up .6%. what is noteworthy there is that is the biggest inventory amount on a month over month basis going back to august of '22. we know that inventories, of course, potentially are building. it depends on what type of demand it meets. on the sales side, this is a fresh number for me. up .6%. that follows up .1% so far unrevised. up .6% that is the strongest number back to february when it was up 2%. so the numbers are better than expected. we see interest rates moving up a bit, geeoating near unchangedn tens and twos. we had a solid two year sale yesterday. and now we're getting to the l longer. these are very important auctions and even though demand has been better at recreant auctions it's worth watching to see if we continue to support the notion we can borrow at current interest rates while spending continues to move higher. sara, back to you. >> we will be watching that back to you. >>> as we await day two with the q&a with t
wholesale trade numbers are crossing the table, let's get to rick santelli with the numbers.ventories, the mid month read was up .6%. it remains up .6%. what is noteworthy there is that is the biggest inventory amount on a month over month basis going back to august of '22. we know that inventories, of course, potentially are building. it depends on what type of demand it meets. on the sales side, this is a fresh number for me. up .6%. that follows up .1% so far unrevised. up .6% that is the...
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Jul 5, 2024
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the unemployment rate hit 4.1%, and according to rick santelli, when i was listening earlier, last timee saw that number or that high was november of '21. looking through the report as well, and obviously they analyzed it at length on "squawk box," 74% of the jobs, government, education, and health care. and mike, listen, we have been paying attention to yields in the bond market this week in terms of potential tell. i'm curious to get your take on the employment report and the impact on the bond market and hence the stock market. >> yeah, the net takeaway is it's softer than not, under the surface, so downward revisions of more than a hundred thousand jobs. there had been this somewhat perceived disconnect between the parole payroll report and the household report. there's been a little bit of convergence there. private sector, job creation was below expectations. average hourly earnings softened up. in general, it still paints the picture of a cooling labor market. bond market, immediate reaction was yields rushed lower. now, not to anything alarming, but basically, two-year yield dow
the unemployment rate hit 4.1%, and according to rick santelli, when i was listening earlier, last timee saw that number or that high was november of '21. looking through the report as well, and obviously they analyzed it at length on "squawk box," 74% of the jobs, government, education, and health care. and mike, listen, we have been paying attention to yields in the bond market this week in terms of potential tell. i'm curious to get your take on the employment report and the impact...
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Jul 16, 2024
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rick santelli is standing by at the contrme in chicago.tail sales, and as becky pointed out, import/export prices. the growth story is a biggie, this goes a long way towards addressing that. june retail sales headline, expected down 0.3%, comes in better, unchanged, unchanged, unchanged is actually pretty good, compared to up 1/10. so we've had back-to-back months that have not been negative. last negative month we had april, was down 0.2%. don't see revisions yet. if we strip out autos, the number improves dramatically. up 0.4%. that's the best level since march when it was up 0.6%. and if we look at ex-autos and gas, it continues to improve, up 0.8%. that is a solid number. up 0.8% equals where we were at one year ago in july. to find a higher number, you go all the way back to january of '23, when it was 3.2. i do see the revisions start to come in. i'll get to those in a moment. the control group for retail sales, and that's the number inputted into other higher up the food chain economic release comes up 0.9%, another powerful number
rick santelli is standing by at the contrme in chicago.tail sales, and as becky pointed out, import/export prices. the growth story is a biggie, this goes a long way towards addressing that. june retail sales headline, expected down 0.3%, comes in better, unchanged, unchanged, unchanged is actually pretty good, compared to up 1/10. so we've had back-to-back months that have not been negative. last negative month we had april, was down 0.2%. don't see revisions yet. if we strip out autos, the...
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Jul 25, 2024
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rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. rick what are you seeing? >> yes.ently here. initial jobless claims hitting the wires at 235,000. that's a bit lighter than we expected. at least following an unrevised for now 243,000. 235,000. well, 245, upgraded last month by 2000 which makes this month down 10,000. continuing claims. the seventh consecutive week above 1.8 million. 1 million 851,000. now, go to gdp. our first look at second quarter gdpr. better than expected. 2.8%. 2.8%. we were expecting 2%. of course, if you comp that, that is going to be bumping right up against the last quarter of last year when it was up 3.4. look at consumption also solid. 2.3%. also the best since the last quarter of last year. and these are both following much lower numbers for the previous quarter. 1.4 on the gdp. 17.5 on consumption. go to the price index, shall we? this one comes in cooler than expected, which is not a bad thing. last look was 3.1. expecting this to be 2.6. comes in at 2.3. the lightest level since dec, 1.6. once again, the number's moving in the right d
rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. rick what are you seeing? >> yes.ently here. initial jobless claims hitting the wires at 235,000. that's a bit lighter than we expected. at least following an unrevised for now 243,000. 235,000. well, 245, upgraded last month by 2000 which makes this month down 10,000. continuing claims. the seventh consecutive week above 1.8 million. 1 million 851,000. now, go to gdp. our first look at second quarter gdpr. better than expected. 2.8%....
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Jul 12, 2024
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rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. rick? >> yes. we're waiting the ppi.. of course, june numbers that will be coming out in a few seconds. do want to point out to your note yesterday, lowest yield since march 8th. ten year lowest since march 28. headline ppi for june up 0.2. up 0 bo.2% unrevised down 0.2. up 0.2? highest since april when it was up half a 1%. strip out food and energy, it's hot. up 0.4. double expectations. last month was unchanged. up 0.4. also just highest since april when it was up half of 1%. look at ex-food energy and trade. under. unchanged. unchanged expecting a number up 0.2. rearview mirror unchanged up 0.2. revisions coming back in. back over those. year over year final demand, coming in at 2.6. definitely hotter than a 2.3 expected. rearview mirror at least up to now 2.2. 2.6 is the warmest since march of '23. over a year. if we look at ex food and energy, 3%. half a percent hotter than expectations, following 2.3 and 3% warmest. back to april of last year when it was 3.1. finally year over year ex food energy and trade, 3.1 fol
rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. rick? >> yes. we're waiting the ppi.. of course, june numbers that will be coming out in a few seconds. do want to point out to your note yesterday, lowest yield since march 8th. ten year lowest since march 28. headline ppi for june up 0.2. up 0 bo.2% unrevised down 0.2. up 0.2? highest since april when it was up half a 1%. strip out food and energy, it's hot. up 0.4. double expectations. last month was unchanged. up 0.4. also just...
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Jul 15, 2024
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. >>> meantime, we want to get over to rick santelli standing by with breaking economic data.? >> yeah. no. we're definitely looking for the july empire and of course everybody's monitoring the long dated treasuries. yields move higher. whether twos to tens minus 22, least inverted in six months or twos to 30s. 30s trading slightly above twos. also a six-month vent going back to actually february. twos back to january. main reason more focus on the election, of course, after the hoar risk incident over the weekend. here we go. empire hitting wires minus 6.6. expecting minus 7.6. minus 6.6 actually is the least negative number that we've had going back to last month when it was minus 6. haven't had a positive number since november of last year. every number this year, except for, well, actually every number this year negative. we want to continue to monitor. back to that yield curve as you look at the charts. the fact longer dated treasury yields are moving higher does focus on the notion that we're going to be talking a whole lot more about debt and deficits in the election, t
. >>> meantime, we want to get over to rick santelli standing by with breaking economic data.? >> yeah. no. we're definitely looking for the july empire and of course everybody's monitoring the long dated treasuries. yields move higher. whether twos to tens minus 22, least inverted in six months or twos to 30s. 30s trading slightly above twos. also a six-month vent going back to actually february. twos back to january. main reason more focus on the election, of course, after the...
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Jul 3, 2024
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. >>> rick santelli standing by in chicago. >> good morning, joe.ata this morning before the independence holiday, expecting a number around 235,000 pretty close, 238,000 now that's up 5,000 from last week's 233, but i would expect revisions to come shortly. 238 is still rather well behaved when you consider that this would be the one, two, third month in a row we're in the 230s. let's look at continuing claims, a different story. a last look on continuing claims we were at the highest level since november of '21, and it's out at 1,853,000, higher than expected. and in the rear view mirror, revisions coming in subtle on initial claims and on continuing claims also subtle revision. but let's put a face on this. 1,858,000 that would be the highest eluding towards november of '21. but this is now the fourth consecutive week above 1.8 million. trade balance coming out, we know that trade balance is a deficit. we're expecting a deficit, the red ink around 76 billion, 75.1 billion with a minus sign in front of it, subtle revision to last month. what's not
. >>> rick santelli standing by in chicago. >> good morning, joe.ata this morning before the independence holiday, expecting a number around 235,000 pretty close, 238,000 now that's up 5,000 from last week's 233, but i would expect revisions to come shortly. 238 is still rather well behaved when you consider that this would be the one, two, third month in a row we're in the 230s. let's look at continuing claims, a different story. a last look on continuing claims we were at the...
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Jul 18, 2024
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rick santelli here. live at cme hq breaking news of the morning. were looking for. follows a slightly revised 223,000. 243,000 equals the first week in june to find a higher number go into the way back machine a bit. august of last year, august of last year. you do remember, last week we had fourth of july. you know, potentially altered thing as bit. holidays thing that the number of days in the surveys. so these are more accurate, and do reflect a bounceback from last week, which probably artificially depressed. continuing claims posted, six. six consecutive. sixth consecutive week above 1.8 million. remains at highest leveling. highest since november of 2021. 1 million 867,000 comps to november '21 when we were 1.8778 million. once again, these numbers are moving up and staying up on continuing claims. now, philly fed survey for july expecting a positive number. a slight positive number. a bit better than expected at 13.9. just shy of 14. the highest level since april when we were at 15.5. we see that interest rates have moved just a smidge lower
rick santelli here. live at cme hq breaking news of the morning. were looking for. follows a slightly revised 223,000. 243,000 equals the first week in june to find a higher number go into the way back machine a bit. august of last year, august of last year. you do remember, last week we had fourth of july. you know, potentially altered thing as bit. holidays thing that the number of days in the surveys. so these are more accurate, and do reflect a bounceback from last week, which probably...
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rick santelli here live at cme hq at breaking news of the morning.ome and spending and the pce inflation numbers all for june. headline coming in on income expecting up 0.4%. cut it in half. up 0.2. lightest of the year. you have to go back to october of last year to find a smaller income number change. on the spending side, pretty much nailed by economists and analysts. expecting up 0.3%. coming in up 0.3% and i want to point out that revisions are trickling in. income a strong last month up half a 1% now reduced by 0.1, up 0.4 on the spending side. double. so we end up with up 0.3. last month the moves up 0.4. spending much better and we have a comp assumption economy. but accounting for inflation, real spending, comes in a little light at up 0.2. last month upgraded from 0.3 toll 0.4. the index. pce month over month up 0.1 expected. a bit higher in the rearview mirror, which was zero. if you have to go back and see when the last time we were a little higher than zero that would be april. just a couple months ago, when it was up 0.3%. the year over
rick santelli here live at cme hq at breaking news of the morning.ome and spending and the pce inflation numbers all for june. headline coming in on income expecting up 0.4%. cut it in half. up 0.2. lightest of the year. you have to go back to october of last year to find a smaller income number change. on the spending side, pretty much nailed by economists and analysts. expecting up 0.3%. coming in up 0.3% and i want to point out that revisions are trickling in. income a strong last month up...
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santelli, is that because we had such a rally today? what's going on?i'll tell you, the three-year and ten-year were above average, almost perfect auctions. today, let's say two out of three ain't bad. 30-year, the yield on those 22 billion, 4.405. but the one issued market was trading 4.383, so it tailed basically two basis points, not good. a price very weak. if you look at some of the metrics, there was one good one, the direct bidders. big insurance companies that need these long-term bonds, they showed up big time at 23.4 on direct bidders. that is the best, the most aggressive since 2014. but outside of that, everything was weak. if you look at the bid to cover, weakest since november of '23. indirect bidders, weakest since november '23. the dealers take an average of 15.9% is the ten auction average. as i said, i gave it a d plus. i could have gone c minus, but to me pricing is the most important issue here. as you can see, not only are yields moving up on that as you see on your intraday 30-year bond chart. but it's also the last auction. we've
santelli, is that because we had such a rally today? what's going on?i'll tell you, the three-year and ten-year were above average, almost perfect auctions. today, let's say two out of three ain't bad. 30-year, the yield on those 22 billion, 4.405. but the one issued market was trading 4.383, so it tailed basically two basis points, not good. a price very weak. if you look at some of the metrics, there was one good one, the direct bidders. big insurance companies that need these long-term...
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Jul 23, 2024
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you should have seen santelli.on a minus but he said this is the strangest auction i have ever seen. so strong. >> rick forgot more about this than i know. with that said, if you think about it, it makes sense. if, in fact, the fed is on this rate cut cycle, the markets can get ahead of it in the form of a two-year auction. so, again, i'm talking in my book a little bit. i wouldn't put too much stock on a two-year auction. which makes sense. tlt closed lower on the day. i still think ten-year yields are going higher from here. >> tlt is a little further out. >> yeah. >> so that is the difference. i mean, i'm pleasantly surprised. i've been fearful of an auction that just goes very badly and not making things unwind. >> that's onest of the big debas is how far you are sneaking out on the curve? i think two years is something that everybody is very comfortable w by the way, the expression he's forgotten more about -- i mean, you can forget a lot of stuff pretty quickly and you claim that -- >> you mentioned something
you should have seen santelli.on a minus but he said this is the strangest auction i have ever seen. so strong. >> rick forgot more about this than i know. with that said, if you think about it, it makes sense. if, in fact, the fed is on this rate cut cycle, the markets can get ahead of it in the form of a two-year auction. so, again, i'm talking in my book a little bit. i wouldn't put too much stock on a two-year auction. which makes sense. tlt closed lower on the day. i still think...