stephen, thank you for being my partner. stephen engle. joining me in taipei.id: a rainy taipei. frederick newman is with us, head of global research at hsbc. what happened in taiwan and is happening in the red sea, do you think it is a reminder that geopolitics have a tangible effect on prices for example? prices are going up. the taiwan strait is a key trade route. what assumption should we make? >> geopolitics is front and center. we would add u.s. election strikes. he geopolitical issue with ukraine for example still there, so this year it's not about the cyclical outlook, it's not as if we will see nasty recessions, its geopolitical risks front and center this year and we have been building up for several years. we grew up with a generally quiet geopolitical environment in 1990 with upsets, but this is the return of geopolitics and we need to learn how to live with political risk. rishaad: it has become the alpha. on top of what you said, ukraine, the middle east, across straits problem. elections in countries which represent 40% of gdp, then the trade war

stephen: stephen engle bloomberg news, taiwan.wan all week in the lead up to the vote in the full results and analysis on monday. taking a look at where we stand, equities across asia, one of the only markets higher is japan. nikkei 225 is climbing after we got base pay growth at 1990's levels. base pay for regular workers rose 1.9% from one year earlier according to the reading. that is on the boj's preferred measure so it strips out sample changes. the kospi is down, australia and new zealand are also lower. we have the yen trading at 14457, fractionally weaker. plenty to come o ♪ haidi: we have he inflation numbers for australia. we are uh -- really seeing cpr at a month on month basis. also falling from 4.9% in the previous reading. we were expecting a pullback given prices were part of the equation expected to slow in november. bloomberg economics he year on year at 4.4% and the beat softer than that. there are expectations that the rba will wait for december numbers, before making real decisions about whether this is a susta

stephen engle, thank you. we have a busy week ahead. it starts with davos. it is the gathering of the global you leads in the alpine -- elites. the theme is rebuilding trust. ukraine hopes to keep the tension -- attention focused on the russian invasion. we will also be tracking the three scheduled appearances from christine lagarde. the scope of what she can say is probably going to narrow as the blackout period starts on thursday ahead of the rate decision on january 25. we will keep you entertained with a roster of a-list interviews. coming up we have philipp hildebrand, the coin-based cfo and the norwegian wealth fund cio. busy news and interviews to come out of davos. away from the alpine luxury, a lot of economic data. tomorrow we got the latest german cpi ratings. expecting german inflation to hold steady on the monthly and annual basis. on thursday -- wednesday, we got a lot of data out of china. a particular focus on gdp especially after the surprise hold from the pboc. watch out for an upside surprise. that is what is on the docket for the week. fo

stephen engle is there on the ground.on since 2000 and it always seems to be raining. four years ago, it was raining sideways, and it did impact the turnout obviously of the election. today and tomorrow, the forecast is for bright sunny skies. and that could have an impact on the 19.5 million voters that could come out to the polls. because this year we have three main candidates, and that third party candidate of the tpp, his message has resonated with younger people. some of the pundits we talked to are saying perhaps if it is sunny and the weather is good, the younger people will come out, so that could play a wildcard element to the election tomorrow. coming up after the break, we will speak to an advisor to the kmt, the opposition party, one of the opposition parties. he is a former kmt lawmaker. he is now advisor to the kmt. jason hsu will be joining us live in central taipei. this is bloomberg. ♪ rishaad: that is a roundabout in shanghai. csi turning negative. the shanghai comp currently is in the positive space. t

stephen engle joining us outside the bank of japan here this morning. nobody is expecting anything but what are we supposed to hear, or what should we expect to hear in this press conference with ueda san? stephen: listening to all this conversation about the chinese stock market stimulus package, it reminds you as well in tokyo, they've been a beneficiary of course of institutional money from places like hong kong into tokyo. it has lifted a sentiment obviously here as well as with an inflationary environment that's been above the boj's 2% target since april of 2022. there's been optimism that things are going well economically even though in the later part of the year the economy did slip, inflation did come off the boil a little bit. you can really feel it here. there is a sense of momentum in the japanese economy, but again, still my the boj likely today will remain cautious, will not likely according to economists surveyed by bloomberg, not a single economist, we surveyed 51, expect the boj to hike or to exit the negative interest rate environment

let's bring in our chief north asia correspondent, stephen engle.t gets interesting now. >> now, what happens? there a hong kong court order for the liquidation from yesterday. will that be followed in the mainland where there is a different legal system? it takes direction essentially from the communist party. if there is a dispersal of these assets, is it going to happen in china? there is no precedence for a large company like this with the spaghetti bowl of but= liabilit -- with a spaghetti bowl of liabilities and priorities. who is going to be left with the lion share and who's not going to come out happily? will it undermine essentially -- the bonds and shares are traded here in hong kong but the bulk of the assets are located on the mainland. how does this get to be up -- divvied up? it's a complicated process. this doesn't happen in china, liquidation. it's called an open disposal. where there will be essentially direct restructuring going on behind the scenes while the company continues to operate, albeit on a restricted basis. hna group is

paul: chief north asia correspondent stephen engle there.hat have a look at how the oil price performing. your seeing moves at greater than 1% upwards for both brent and wti. wti just above $79 a barrel. brent at $84 a barrel. this on the news of that drone strike near the syrian border that killed three u.s. troops. president biden has vowed retaliation after that attack. it was tied to iran backed group. three u.s. troops killed, over 20 others wounded. it happened in jordan, near the syrian border. bloomberg's michael heath joined us. retaliation is anticipated, but it will be some discussion around the scale, right? michael: that is exactly right. will be talking about, but the tax one. of the advantages of having a president joe biden chaz has seen the list of becoming too heavily engaged in foreign policy. that brings protracted wars. phil have to do something significant. this is the first u.s. voters today since the conflict -- 25 wounded, it was a significant attack. so they were not part of this conflict, islamic state, but will ha

stephen engle reporting live out of taipei ahead of that crucial presidential election.e thank you for your analysis and reporting this morning. coming up, we switch gears. it hurts. log on electric vehicles. it's a really big story. we will walk you through it. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ kriti: welcome back to daybreak europe, i kriti gupta. hertz plans to sell 100 thousand electric vehicles and reinvest in gasoline powered cars. they're blaming weak demand and high repair costs for the move. sales began last month and will continue throughout the year. the decision highlights waning demand for evey's in the u.s. joining us for details is bloomberg's any of head of mobility. this is an interesting moment. didn't hertz -- the tom brady commercial coming to mind -- really doubt their move into ev. they were rewarded by it in the stock market. talk about the rationale behind this move. >> about 3% of the global fleets are electric vehicles. hertz has been ahead of their competitors with 11% on their fleet having a plug. this has created issues. they are learning a

paul: stephen engle there.ll get more insights on china's property market in a few minutes and hear why ubs is starting to change its view on the embattled sector. plenty more to come on "bloomberg daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪ paul: u.s. officials say president biden is seeking a response to the deadly attacks on u.s. forces and jordan. it is -- that is tough enough on iran and its proxies while avoiding a wider conflict. patrick ryder spoke with bloomberg earlier. >> we will take deliberate, appropriate action. our focus is not to broaden the conflict. from the very beginning, we've been focused on ensuring the situation in israel does not broaden into a wider regional conflict. what you have are iranian proxy groups exploiting the situation, conducting these types of illegal attacks against forces in the region to preserve peace and stability. we are going to do what we need to do to protect our forces will also cognizant of the fact that we don't want a wider regional conflict. >> who were the perpe

kriti: stephen engle, we thank you so much for your analysis this morning.more ahead coming out of the boj. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ kriti: we have been moderating -- monitoring the comments coming out of the bank of japan. the governor making comments. he is basically saying they would consider whether negative rates will -- should remain if the price goal is insight. he is also mentioning the cost push inflation -- he is making a reference to oil. the readthrough from oil prices into the japanese economy is a crucial one. the governor is an academic. he considers all of his options. those comments creating strengthen the japanese yen. 147 17 is where we are. up next, markets today continues. coverage ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: stephen engle awaiting the boj decision. the race for the republican presidential nomination converges in new hampshire on tuesday. is a test for a former u.n. ambassador nikki haley who is looking to establish herself to as a viable alternative to former president trump. joe mathieu joins us now. how are the polls looking ahead of the primary? we have donald ahead but it is a very different set up in new hampshire to what we saw in iowa. what are we expecting to see? >> it is feeling a lot more similar at this point. things have changed quite a bit in the polls we follow in the last week following a big win for donald trump in iowa. this is supposed to be nikki haley country. there is a raft of polls that landed this morning showing her 10, 15 points behind donald. trump she was within single digits just a week ago. it has been interesting to watch the distribution of votes from of the candidates who have dropped out of the race. . yesterday was ron desantis. before that, chris christie and ramaswamy. it looks like some of

stephen engle asked about the security of the industry to lai ching-te and during his postelection pressonference permitted take a listen. stephen: how do you now mitigate the risk that increasing tensions with china essentially could weaken the strategic advantage, the strategic importance of the chip industry that it provides to taiwan? >> as long as there is a quality and compatibility between this two sides of the straits, taiwan is willing to exchange with china for exchanges and cooperation. you will vigorously assist the semiconductor industry in material, and equipment, r&d, packaging to testing to form a more complete industrial chain. shery: analysts have talked about how the election outcome doesn't necessarily change the global trend of dv skin, that we will still see more movement away from china and away from taipei as well, how has taiwan's industry been doing, given that, of course, we have talked about the ongoing slump in the semiconductor industry as well? yvonne: right, and you take the look at the u.s. export controls on china as well, that has no doubt impacted taiw

reporter: stephen engle, bloomberg news, taiwan.will be reporting from rallies for the main opposition parties later this week, special coverage out of taiwan continues in the lead up to the vote. let's turn to the other stories following, samsung shares trading down. 35 percent drop that reflects continuing weaker consumer demand for smartphones and other devices. the weakness muddying outlook for a market recovery that many had hoped would emerge this year . the full results are coming out on the 31st of january. nvidia jumping to a record high and a u.s. tech rally unveiling three new graphic trips to help customers with ai pc's. the company says this will allow users to make better use of ai on personal machines. haslinda: let's look at some tech stocks. down 1%, posting a drop of 35% in profit for the fourth quarter. expecting ai memory chip demand to -- rishaad: indeed, we will have a look at these -- some audio issues with haslinda but we are looking at crypto stocks as well get over here kids. time for today's lesson. wow. -

let's get our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle. tell you? reporter: that is an interesting story. i recommend all of our viewers to go to the bloomberg terminal and look at that story. sources telling bloomberg news that because of widespread corruption across china and the industrial defense industries in particular affecting the rocket force in china has really limited apparently the pla's ability to essentially fulfill some of xi jinping's modernization efforts and drive and could significantly reduce the pla's ability to wage any kind of military action in the coming years. whether that will play at all into the hearts and minds of people here who go to the polls on saturday is yet to be determined, but the cross street friction will be front and center as people go to the polls, whether they choose to go to the dpp and its candidate or one of two main opposition candidates. those two gentlemanly last year were unable to form an alliance to align the dpp which runs on a climate of the fecteau independence. the opposition partie

ambassador to japan speaking to our stephen engle there. much more to come here on daybreak: asia.is is bloomberg. ♪ >> you are watching "daybreak: asia." jp morgan has raised jamie dimon's pay to $36 million after it reported the highest profit in the history of american banking. his total is up 4.3% from 2022 with a one point $5 million salary and the -- with a $1.5 billion salary. jp morgan's revenue last year was just short of $50 million. wall street deals will pick up -- wall street m&a deals will pick up as rates come down. and carlyle group's david rubenstein sees -- tells us he will be shocked if the fed does not cut rates by march. jan capital now plans to launch with $5 billion to $6 billion, far below earlier ambitions of as much as $10 billion. the loan expectations underscore a challenging fundraising environment for the industry. some market watchers say japanese stocks risk becoming a crowded trade. strategist at hsbc have told bloomberg the market has risen too far and investors should start taking profits, but that is a contrarian view. at bank of america survey t

is of chief north asia correspondent stephen engle.gh-stakes than the issue towards china's policy towards beijing, that will be front and center. stephen: every story that crosses the bloomberg terminal that has to do with china and taiwan will be amplified because we are in the final homestretch before that election on sunday, some saintly be the most critical election taiwan has been in more than a decade. we're looking at the three main parties. keep in mind, there are three main candidates for president for the dpp, the kmt and the t.p.p. it will be interesting to see how the votes shake out. i don't know if you could see the crowds in the front page of the livery times essentially saying yesterday was super sunday, with the main parties all having a larger rallies. there will be individual rallies the rest of this week throughout taiwan. and we will be at some of them in the opening days of this week ahead of what will culminate on saturday, that is, of course, the election and big rallies here in type a on friday night. -- here

paul: all right, thank you very much, that was stephen engle in tokyo.an catch japan ahead every week, that is on monday, if you are walking in tokyo,; 40 p.m. sunday in new york. subscribers can watch on the terminal using the tv function, this is bloomberg. ♪ thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh annabelle: the global chip outlook remains in focus with holiday quarter earnings due on thursday, south korea's second most viable companies expected to close 35% revenue job as a i adoption picks up. let us get more from our breaking earnings specialist. rachel, in the earnings, what are the key things we need to be watching out for? >> sk hynix because of the global pick up in ai and also chips, we are excited to see higher quarterly revenue from them. -- expecting to see higher quarterly revenue from t

engle at the boj headquarters in tokyo awaiting that decision. the annual goldman sachs global macro conference is underway in hong kong. let's get back to the event where our markets, and yvonne man is standing by with our next guest. >> there is lots to talk about anklet and japan but i want to bring in the chief aipac strategist running us in hong kong. good to see you back here in your old home. we have got to talk about the elephant china. it seems like there is renewed intense selling. are you seeing signs of panic? there are definitely >> couple things that explain it. there is a clear recognition china is facing significant structural challenges. those are well-known. they are broadly more concerns over the property market, demographics, slowing growth and so forth. there has also been concerned there is not a forceful a policy response as people had been hoping for. it has been this progressive slide in the market punctuated by occasional rallies but when the policy which has been hinted at does not fully come through, people have been s

stephen: stephen engle, bloomberg news, taiwan.and of course, special coverage from taiwan all week in the lead up to that vote. we will have results and analysis from monday. let's check in with the other big geopolitical stories we are following with china up in a bid to rally support from the so-called global south. a bloomberg analysis showing beijing elevated the way it described ties with 17 countries including syria, ethiopia and venezuela, the highest number since president xi jinping took power over a decade ago. to the middle east. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken said israel must stop undercutting palestinian governments and rain and settler violence in so the mom -- in some of the most high-profile criticism of prime minister binging on yahoo! -- minister netanyahu. israel is pushing with its plan to target hamas leaders. >> we continue to stand with israel in assuring that october 7 can never happen again. we believe the submission against israel to the international court of justice distracts the world from all

let's get to stephen engle. what do we know. a lot of people say this is a sticking plaster. >> it is not a huge move in some investors are clamoring for more bold moves by authorities in china. perhaps they are trying to figure out where the best stimulus would go. there were some lose last week that saw msci china and csi 300 go up, but against that enthusiasm starting to wane by the end of the week toward friday. there are strategic placement shares that are given to key executives and employees and they have been able to lend amount. back in october authorities started limiting the practice. now this latest move that is effective today, those shares cannot be used for shortselling because authorities have never liked the idea of shortselling to market especially at a time when authorities are trying to prop up the market right now. if you look at those lended strategic placement shares, they are down 40% according to a statement from the securities regulator, so they want to put a halt to the shares being used as a shortsell

stephen engle and i will be there next week. this is bloomberg. ♪ i made that.own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy. >> we will just have a rebalancing in the continent. the numbers are not that big. it's been the 200 level. if you think about 15,000 people, that is sort of not that material. i do think both will be simply continuing to grow and be very relevant. what will change, though, the big thing that's changing is the risk-taking that's going to move. we have historically had risk-taking in the u.k. that risk-taking and the assets that go with it, not the people alone but the assets that go with it, that is the next phase of what we are now moving into. and that will be a material change. ♪ haidi: this is the time of the year when we start taking a look at 2024 expectations. i think you said it the last couple of hours -- a lot of the 2023 expectations really never materialized, and things turned out very differently, the the calls on the fed, the u

haidi: chung yin speaking exclusively with stephen engle in taipei.ll have our continued special coverage from taiwan all week into the lead up to the vote on january 13. those full results and analysis from monday. watch us live and see past interviews on our interactive tv function tv . dive into any of the securities that we talk about and join in on the conversation as well and sent us instant messages during our shows. this is for bloomberg's subscribers only. check it out. it is at tv . this is bloomberg. ♪ hey, doc, quick question. okay? if you had to choose, would you give yourself a root canal or run payroll? run payroll, no question. you know how tough payroll can be, right? no. we switched to gusto, and paying my team couldn't be easier. gusto gives me unlimited payroll runs, next day direct deposits, and automatically files my taxes. ooh, taxes! sounds like you know the drill. good one! can i run payroll too? sure, after this. choose payroll without the pain. that's working with gusto. at cdw, we get if your network power goes down

yvonne: thank you, stephen engle, our chief north asian correspondent. and you live pictures with the hong kong chief executive holding that presser. this is regarding the safeguarding of national security, the basic law article 23 legislation that counsel up -- consultation begins today, which is a little bit more than expected. obviously for those of you not in hong kong, it's a controversial topic here in the city. it has led to mass public protests back into thousand three, back when -- was the chief executive, led to him stepping down with the previous attempt to enact this legislation. since then, a lot has changed, there has been a crackdown on defending the city. you see protesters and opposition figures have either fled or been prosecuted. they are now bringing back this article into consultation. david: you have hong kong's chief executive john lee, you have the secretary of justice, and also the secretary for security for bloomberg clients. you can continue to follow this on your terminals, tliv . some background, some updates, commentary

as the three contenders make their final push to whip up support, stephen engle reports from a rallyate, vice president lai ching-te. >> china's presidential campaign is into the home stretch ahead of saturday's critical vote with rallies across the island this week. strained relations with china and talk of possible war make this one of the most consequential votes taiwan has ever seen. we traveled an hour southeast of taipei to where the ruling dpp met its faithful in a rockets rally. unlike the opposition kmt and tpp parties that favor closer links with mainland china, the incumbent dpp prefers a status quo of the fact of self-determination. building a fairly sovereign taiwan identity internationally. >> here in elon, stumping for the candidate she hopes will replace her after eight years. that is her vice president lai ching-te. stephen: leaders china has branded as separatists. china has warned pursuit of independence could lead to military action against taiwan. >> warships and fighter jets keep coming from china as intimidation. when we have such an aggressive neighbor we must