0
0.0
Jan 31, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
>> i think steve liesman nailed it, because the question is, mr. chairman, what gives you the confidence to start cutting rates? we already know that inflation is coming down. the six month annualized average, which is a measure of inflation, is already at or below 2% at this time. i think the answer is, what gives you the confidence? the labor market has to start to get weaker, because what is happening is, inflation has come down, but the labor market did not get weaker, so therefore, they believe that the decline in inflation at this time might not be anchored, so therefore, it might be too soon. we have a payroll number coming up on friday. we will see where that comes out. i think the strength of the jobs market is now going to be something that they probably hinge off of. should they start cutting in march? it's probably 50-50. does the statement seem like they are kicking the can down the road? yes, it absolutely does. i do think they want to cut 75 to 100 basis points this year. they would like to get the ball rolling in march, as long as t
>> i think steve liesman nailed it, because the question is, mr. chairman, what gives you the confidence to start cutting rates? we already know that inflation is coming down. the six month annualized average, which is a measure of inflation, is already at or below 2% at this time. i think the answer is, what gives you the confidence? the labor market has to start to get weaker, because what is happening is, inflation has come down, but the labor market did not get weaker, so therefore,...
0
0.0
Jan 3, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman has more. steve, what do you make of it all?we've got the soft landing scenario that got a little help from the economic data with a decline in job openings, showing easing inflationary pressures. the ism manufacturing was up 0.7 to 47.4, but the third straight month it's indicated to contracting an economy that is below 48. ism the index, the price index, it declined. so that's a good measure. the fed is looking for easing in the labor market and did get a little bit, the lowest level since march '21 but above the prepandemic level of around 6 million. the quit rate also declined back towards normal. the richard fed president this morning perhaps giving a preview of what those minutes will say. yes, cuts are penciled in, but no, they're not guaranteed and they not come as extensively as markets expect. a soft market, he says, is not inevitable, so the potential of rate hikes remain on the table. about that, he said weaker demand or more fed hikes may be needed to bring down inflation, and the recent decline in yields and the ri
steve liesman has more. steve, what do you make of it all?we've got the soft landing scenario that got a little help from the economic data with a decline in job openings, showing easing inflationary pressures. the ism manufacturing was up 0.7 to 47.4, but the third straight month it's indicated to contracting an economy that is below 48. ism the index, the price index, it declined. so that's a good measure. the fed is looking for easing in the labor market and did get a little bit, the lowest...
0
0.0
Jan 22, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman is here with the latest. steve? >> tyler, good afternoon. there looks to be a rash of optimism breaking out over the economy and both businesses and consumers, the latest survey from the national association for business economic spots the three-month outlook for sales, profit and capex surging and that is 61% of the 57 responding companies and forecast rising sales over the next three months and that's the highest percentage since the second quarter of 2021. a net 30% improved profit margins and that's above the pre-pandemic level and the best since 2015 and the capex approved by 17 points to about average and fewer businesses expect to charge higher prices. that's a good outcome there. likely driving business sentiment are the same factors that are leading to a more upbeat consumer and higher stock prices and the prospect that recession may have been avoided while the fed could soon be cutting interest rates. on friday the university of michigan reported the biggest one-month surge in consumer sentiment since 2005. now it remains, as you c
steve liesman is here with the latest. steve? >> tyler, good afternoon. there looks to be a rash of optimism breaking out over the economy and both businesses and consumers, the latest survey from the national association for business economic spots the three-month outlook for sales, profit and capex surging and that is 61% of the 57 responding companies and forecast rising sales over the next three months and that's the highest percentage since the second quarter of 2021. a net 30%...
0
0.0
Jan 10, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
let's bring in steve liesman. steve? >> yeah, it's a big number tomorrow, melissa, that's going to test the market's optimistic outlook for fed rate cuts. the consensus is a little hotter on the headline, unchanged on the core, but that's going to continue to bring down the year over year rate. this here are the numbers we're looking for, 0.2, up from 0.1 in the prior month. that will bring it up 3.2% on the headline. but the core is looking to be unchanged, going to bring rate down, because base effects of bigger numbers dropping out. but it is numbers like these that have john williams this afternoon hailing the progress on inflation, but not ready to commit to cutting rates since the inflation rate remains elevated above the 2% target. williams said this afternoon the fed forecast for three cuts seem reasonable to him, but only after the central bank is confident inflation is heading back towards the target. if there's a downside surprise tomorrow, it could come from the housing part of the report. recent reports show
let's bring in steve liesman. steve? >> yeah, it's a big number tomorrow, melissa, that's going to test the market's optimistic outlook for fed rate cuts. the consensus is a little hotter on the headline, unchanged on the core, but that's going to continue to bring down the year over year rate. this here are the numbers we're looking for, 0.2, up from 0.1 in the prior month. that will bring it up 3.2% on the headline. but the core is looking to be unchanged, going to bring rate down,...
0
0.0
Jan 3, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman's got more. steve, it seemed more hawkish than i think a lot of people expected. >> yeah, that's my take, melissa. the minutes to the meeting. remember, they were closely watched for what they might say about how quickly and deeply the fed would cut rates this year. well, they didn't provide much information on either. as a result, they did lean, i think, somewhat hawkish as they failed to back up the market's aggressive view on rate cuts this year. the committee saw inflation risk as more balanced, that was good. also on the dovish side. the minutes said policy was at or near the peak. most agreed a lower target rate would be appropriate in 2024. but there was a high level of uncertainty around those projections, to the point where officials said further rate hikes could be needed, or the fed might have to hold onto the current rate path longer than expected. our impression is the committee wanted to clarify it does not see rate cuts as imminent and lean against them. march cuts specifically. wh
steve liesman's got more. steve, it seemed more hawkish than i think a lot of people expected. >> yeah, that's my take, melissa. the minutes to the meeting. remember, they were closely watched for what they might say about how quickly and deeply the fed would cut rates this year. well, they didn't provide much information on either. as a result, they did lean, i think, somewhat hawkish as they failed to back up the market's aggressive view on rate cuts this year. the committee saw...
0
0.0
Jan 10, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman is here with that story. steve? >> hey, kelly., the cnbc national retail federation retail monitor for december, it shows retailers chalking up some decent gains in the final month of the holiday season. but the true state of spending may be clouded by a new factor, deflation. i'll get to that in a second. retail sales, up 0.4%, down from a strong november, which was up 0.8%. the headline up 3.1 for the year. some giveback from the strong november was inevitable and economists expect the economy to cool in the fourth quarter. but retail has been hampered by a slow down in the housing industry. all three of the biggest negative categories, electronics, appliances, bu building supplies and furniture are all housing related. but categories linked to holiday shopping did better, including general merchandise and non-store sales, that's internet. it was a good month for restaurant and bars. deflation, saw the sharpest price declines in november. combines november and december, holiday sales were pretty good. but tomorrow's cp ireport i
steve liesman is here with that story. steve? >> hey, kelly., the cnbc national retail federation retail monitor for december, it shows retailers chalking up some decent gains in the final month of the holiday season. but the true state of spending may be clouded by a new factor, deflation. i'll get to that in a second. retail sales, up 0.4%, down from a strong november, which was up 0.8%. the headline up 3.1 for the year. some giveback from the strong november was inevitable and...
0
0.0
Jan 31, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman, cnbc business news. >>> let's talk about the fed and what we can expect. i'm happy to be joined by our next guest. good morning, ramy. so many different drivers to anticipate. we've had a lot of o the tech earnings and what to watch out for on friday, but, of course, the main event is going to be the fed meeting later today, and i think many market participants are hopeful that the fed chair will start signaling that they're ready to start thinking about cutting rates and perhaps even signal that march is a live one. in the absence of dovish commentary from the fed claire jerome powell, how do you think markets will react? >> thanks, joumanna, for having me. i think that the main event will be a nonevent. where i think there could be some interesting commentary is in the q & a. when jay powell actually answers questions to the press, he then sort of breaks script and you'll get a sense of where the mind-set is. we've got from no rate cut in massachusetts to a full rate cut priced into now less than 50-50 to now, you know, negligible. so i think our base ca
steve liesman, cnbc business news. >>> let's talk about the fed and what we can expect. i'm happy to be joined by our next guest. good morning, ramy. so many different drivers to anticipate. we've had a lot of o the tech earnings and what to watch out for on friday, but, of course, the main event is going to be the fed meeting later today, and i think many market participants are hopeful that the fed chair will start signaling that they're ready to start thinking about cutting rates...
0
0.0
Jan 30, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
of course, steve liesman has those results.s the most eagerly anticipated recession that doesn't seem to happen. >> still waiting, still waiting, dominic. the cnbc fed survey forecasters still seeing a slowdown, dom, but one not nearly as severe as they misforecast a year ago. they have backed off the recession call, but not a call for slower growth. let's take a look at the past here. here's what happened last year. they forecast gdp in january for 2023 at 0.4. they had another shot at it in june. it was 0.8. it came in at 3.1%. so well off. unemployment was forecast to be 4.5% in january, came in unchanged at 3.7. cpi, 2.5 was forecast, 3.5 in june, and it came in at 3.2. forecasters shared the belief that higher rates would slow growth to a crawl, raise the unemployment rate and bring down inflation. they were only close on the direction of inflation coming down. for this year, here are the numbers. remember that gdp at 3.1%? 1.3 now, a slowdown but not as severe as last time. unemployment rate ticks up to 6.3%. and the head
of course, steve liesman has those results.s the most eagerly anticipated recession that doesn't seem to happen. >> still waiting, still waiting, dominic. the cnbc fed survey forecasters still seeing a slowdown, dom, but one not nearly as severe as they misforecast a year ago. they have backed off the recession call, but not a call for slower growth. let's take a look at the past here. here's what happened last year. they forecast gdp in january for 2023 at 0.4. they had another shot at...
0
0.0
Jan 11, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman is here with more. how much should we make of this, steve?well, i think it's a good lesson, kelly. the fed has been trying to say for several weeks now that the inflation numbers are not going to be coming in as expected, now that the data is out, the question is whether the markets are listening. the message there the dat a is this, yes, inflation is cooling but it doesn't happen in a straight line and you just can't price the imperfect to perfection. here's the data. the headline number is up, pushing up the year over year. the core coming in unchanged. base effects have declined to 3.9% but still sticky at levels the fed is uncomfortable with. energy is now positive. used cars, all the other data should be negative, and there's that shelter component, just won't go down. if you're bullish on inflation, that's your ace in the hole right there. and airline fares also reversing a series of declines, up 1%. the trouble for the fed, inflation progress seems to have stalled, certainly on the headline. it's gone a bit sideways, and in the core, t
steve liesman is here with more. how much should we make of this, steve?well, i think it's a good lesson, kelly. the fed has been trying to say for several weeks now that the inflation numbers are not going to be coming in as expected, now that the data is out, the question is whether the markets are listening. the message there the dat a is this, yes, inflation is cooling but it doesn't happen in a straight line and you just can't price the imperfect to perfection. here's the data. the...
0
0.0
Jan 29, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman is here to set the scene for us, steve? >> hey, tyler, one way to think about the fed is this, they've done the final maneuvers and it's now in mid-air to execute the landing and no one quite knows if they're going to stick it. judged by the inflation number so far and the past few months the routine has gone pretty well and all three major gauges and the pce headline and core services are at or below 2%. the six-month annualized core rate has been below the fed's 2% target for two months running now, and all of that has come surprisingly with growth above potential and the unemployment rate barely budging. so why not cut rates right now? judging by what they've been saying from that immediate cut is concerned about the sustainability about the decline in inflation and growth and employment still remaining strong and we're particularly concerned about wage growth and risk from the middle east conflict which could lead to a new inflation surge so far. the fed, most of all, doesn't think it will help the credibility or the ec
liesman is here to set the scene for us, steve? >> hey, tyler, one way to think about the fed is this, they've done the final maneuvers and it's now in mid-air to execute the landing and no one quite knows if they're going to stick it. judged by the inflation number so far and the past few months the routine has gone pretty well and all three major gauges and the pce headline and core services are at or below 2%. the six-month annualized core rate has been below the fed's 2% target for...
0
0.0
Jan 25, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman has the latest stats and washington correspondent megan cosella with the white house strategy to sell voters on the economy. steve, we begin with you take it away >> thanks, tyler the u.s. continues to outperform or crush it on two notable fronts growth and inflation and markets and the fed now have to navigate policy and where it's headed with growth remaining strong, but inflation falling. here's the numbers that everybody is talking about gdp surprising to the upside, 3.3% on the quarter. down from the prior quarter, but above expectations and the deflator is all the talk of the town here, half of what it was in the prior quarter. durables and transportation, the headline was negative because of boeing and here's the new home sales up 8% on the lower rates. looking at gdp year over year, what you see is growth in 2023 accelerated from 2022, a far cry from that recession so many had predicted. and all of that while inflation declined from nearly 8% in 2022 to under 2% now on a quarterly basis. despite declining inflation, the market has digested strong economic growth as a s
steve liesman has the latest stats and washington correspondent megan cosella with the white house strategy to sell voters on the economy. steve, we begin with you take it away >> thanks, tyler the u.s. continues to outperform or crush it on two notable fronts growth and inflation and markets and the fed now have to navigate policy and where it's headed with growth remaining strong, but inflation falling. here's the numbers that everybody is talking about gdp surprising to the upside,...
0
0.0
Jan 17, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
that's steve liesman, our senior economics correspondent. do you care -- do you care how many times the fed might cut this year? i mean the market, what' interesting to me is as rate have ticked up and the expectations of march have com down, there has been a fligh back to quality. russell is dow 6% to start the year it is way worse than the three other areas. mega caps have found som stability when everyone wa talking about broadening right? >> yeah, i can't think of single economic sector, 11 sector spiders i can't think of a single on other than property owners, th real estate sector i can't think of one other are in the economy where anyone is saying what we really need is to start cutting interest rates nobody is asking for it, it' not a problem. we don't have massive defaults anywhere even in energy, they seem to b active responsibly this is just not a situation where if we get free rate cuts it's devastating if we get five, everyone wil want to buy stocks it's just not where we are we do not have the same level of sensitivity to short
that's steve liesman, our senior economics correspondent. do you care -- do you care how many times the fed might cut this year? i mean the market, what' interesting to me is as rate have ticked up and the expectations of march have com down, there has been a fligh back to quality. russell is dow 6% to start the year it is way worse than the three other areas. mega caps have found som stability when everyone wa talking about broadening right? >> yeah, i can't think of single economic...
0
0.0
Jan 31, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
. >>> we are less than an hour away from the fed decision, and steve liesman is at the federal reserve with what to expect and what to watch out for, all before he goes into that all-important fed lockup. st steve, what should we all be watching for at this point? >> i think it comes down to the statement. we'll be watching and listening to what the fed chair has to stay. the statement comes out at 2:00, and the focus is on one statement, which is this one -- in determining the extent of any additional policy firming. the idea is that the fed is believed -- the fed is probably going to come off of that. what's happened, if you look at the probability, we can come back to that later, the probabilities have changed, near 60% for a march cut. we'll see how that reacts to the statement. the fed will want to convey -- >> while keeping the door slightly ajar for march, that's the key. different ways to go about this. they may talk about the idea that they're going to take their time and keep rates at a restrictive level for some time, or may use the word "patience" which is a word they used
. >>> we are less than an hour away from the fed decision, and steve liesman is at the federal reserve with what to expect and what to watch out for, all before he goes into that all-important fed lockup. st steve, what should we all be watching for at this point? >> i think it comes down to the statement. we'll be watching and listening to what the fed chair has to stay. the statement comes out at 2:00, and the focus is on one statement, which is this one -- in determining the...
0
0.0
Jan 31, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman, coming to us from d.c. let's talk about this market reaction, and we referenced this at the top. it was almost like, why you are so surprised? if we are offsides when it comes to powell shutting the door on a march cut, how offsides are we going to be later on when the fed doesn't cut 50 basis points? >> we're looking it through the lens of the fed announcement, or, the commentary caused the market. i guess you could -- but the vix was elevated long before the fed presser today, right, or fed announcement, which we've had that conversation on our call. and i think the market was looking for an excuse and we talked about earnings last night. so, you can absolutely cast blame on this fed presser today and all the commentary out of it. i would submit to your earlier point, it shouldn't be a surprise and maybe there's something else going on right now. >> michael, what do you think? >> you know, the -- let's put aside the market move for a second, i think it was completely irrational for the market to be pricin
steve liesman, coming to us from d.c. let's talk about this market reaction, and we referenced this at the top. it was almost like, why you are so surprised? if we are offsides when it comes to powell shutting the door on a march cut, how offsides are we going to be later on when the fed doesn't cut 50 basis points? >> we're looking it through the lens of the fed announcement, or, the commentary caused the market. i guess you could -- but the vix was elevated long before the fed presser...
0
0.0
Jan 26, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
eastern steve liesman will join us on insight on the fed's next move that's coming up next. >>> later secretary jennifer granholm will join us to talk about the administration's new pause of approvals for lng export facilities as we head to break, check out today's move in the price of bitcoin, up more than 3% oh, boy. the timing that we see sometimes. back above 41,000. crypto related stocks higher across the boa quk x"ill be right back. [waterf] want to go somewhere amazing? [engine revs] (♪♪) nice right? but we're not there yet... [natural sounds] not this either... (♪♪) still not it... finding the next epic place isn't the point. in a nissan pathfinder, the search is the adventure. (♪♪) [♪♪] your skin is ever-changing, take care of it with gold bond's healing formulations of 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond. >>> good morning intel's guidance drag the nasdaq 100 lower this morning that stock and other movers that could set the tone for the markets straight ahead >>> the white house announcing plans to pause approval of new lng export facilities. energy s
eastern steve liesman will join us on insight on the fed's next move that's coming up next. >>> later secretary jennifer granholm will join us to talk about the administration's new pause of approvals for lng export facilities as we head to break, check out today's move in the price of bitcoin, up more than 3% oh, boy. the timing that we see sometimes. back above 41,000. crypto related stocks higher across the boa quk x"ill be right back. [waterf] want to go somewhere amazing?...
0
0.0
Jan 5, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
a i'm becky quick with mike santoli and steve liesman. there is a lot riding on this. let's look quickly at where the futures stand on this friday morning. red arrows once again. this has been the picture for the year. granted, the year is four days long in terms of trading days. we have seen weakness in the futures in the morning. we have seen markets down for this week and we will continue to keep an eye on it. the dow is off 60. the s&p futures up 10. the nasdaq up 59. for the year, the dow is d down .20%. the s&p is down 1.7%. now the nasdaq is down 3% for the week. a lot of this is because of what we have seen with the action in the treasury market. treasury prices have come down and yields gone up. t ten-year yield is 4.04%. you see right now with the two-year yield back to 4.27%. bitcoin tumbled after one analyst expects the s.e.c. to reject the proposals this month. this is something we talked about yesterday with pampliano. he said don't worry about it. it will continue on after this. bitcoin up to $43,741. >>> to today's jobs report. the increase of 170,000 i
a i'm becky quick with mike santoli and steve liesman. there is a lot riding on this. let's look quickly at where the futures stand on this friday morning. red arrows once again. this has been the picture for the year. granted, the year is four days long in terms of trading days. we have seen weakness in the futures in the morning. we have seen markets down for this week and we will continue to keep an eye on it. the dow is off 60. the s&p futures up 10. the nasdaq up 59. for the year, the...
0
0.0
Jan 12, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman for much more. steve? >> reporter: there was a sizable reaction to this wholesale price report. suggesting little inflationary pressure up the supply chain. a lot of stuff on the ppi flows into the pce, come in to call it 3% year over year. that is at the fed's 2% inflation target. what happened it was high at 69%. now as we're talking the ppi is far more important than yesterday's slightly disappointing core cpi numbers. the data will increase the pressure to ease soon. the two-year feels it and sees it down 11 basis points. a strong reaction. look at what we've been following for a while wait on a disaversion of the curve. the spread at minus 20 basis points. it had been even as high as 100 basis points not that long ago. that's where we are now, frank. the market's gotten really attuned to taking the ppi number and plugging it in and essentially trading on that. >> what does this mean for the march possible cuts? what about other cuts throughout the year? >> so this gets a little complicated, frank. you
steve liesman for much more. steve? >> reporter: there was a sizable reaction to this wholesale price report. suggesting little inflationary pressure up the supply chain. a lot of stuff on the ppi flows into the pce, come in to call it 3% year over year. that is at the fed's 2% inflation target. what happened it was high at 69%. now as we're talking the ppi is far more important than yesterday's slightly disappointing core cpi numbers. the data will increase the pressure to ease soon. the...
0
0.0
Jan 5, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
a i'm becky quick with mike santoli and steve liesman. there is a lot riding on this.ook quickly at where the futures stand on this friday morning. red arrows once again. this has been the picture for the year. granted, the year is four days long in terms of trading days. we have seen weakness in the futures in the morning. we have seen markets down for this week and we will continue to keep an eye on it. the dow is off 60. the s&p futures up 10. the nasdaq
a i'm becky quick with mike santoli and steve liesman. there is a lot riding on this.ook quickly at where the futures stand on this friday morning. red arrows once again. this has been the picture for the year. granted, the year is four days long in terms of trading days. we have seen weakness in the futures in the morning. we have seen markets down for this week and we will continue to keep an eye on it. the dow is off 60. the s&p futures up 10. the nasdaq
0
0.0
Jan 24, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
it is amazing to talk in numbers that start with a t, but steve liesman does that every single day.hinking >> yeah, there is an extra zero there, and it is really hard i got to put it into the spreadsheet to figure out if it is trillions or billions i'm not quite there yet. i'm getting there. here is the deal, fed officials have been debating outloud, publicly for the first time when to end the reduction of the balance sheet known as quantitative tightening and, guess what, it could happen this year the fed as you remember ramped up the balance sheet by about 4.8 trillion during the pandemic, buying treasuries and mortgages. it started reducing the balance sheet, which is known as qt in mid-2022 and brought it down by 1.3 trillion so, is that enough should it go back to where it was before the pandemic or some amount higher than that? the fed admits it doesn't know for sure >> there is no economic theory that tells you how big a central bank's balance sheet should be i know of no theory that tells you. you have switzerland where, you know, it is basically 100% of gdp or some number
it is amazing to talk in numbers that start with a t, but steve liesman does that every single day.hinking >> yeah, there is an extra zero there, and it is really hard i got to put it into the spreadsheet to figure out if it is trillions or billions i'm not quite there yet. i'm getting there. here is the deal, fed officials have been debating outloud, publicly for the first time when to end the reduction of the balance sheet known as quantitative tightening and, guess what, it could...
0
0.0
Jan 19, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
i'm melissa lee with steve liesman along with mike santoli. u.s.ur look to continue the gains made in the technology. nasdaq is opening higher by 131 points. s&p is adding 119. we are talking about key levels. strong day for semiconductors which many see as the economic indicator. >> apple and semiconductors were a large story yesterday. the largest highest quality mega cap stocks. a divergence again. it does seem as if you had enough of a push there. 4,800 is the intraday high. 4,818 is the all-time
i'm melissa lee with steve liesman along with mike santoli. u.s.ur look to continue the gains made in the technology. nasdaq is opening higher by 131 points. s&p is adding 119. we are talking about key levels. strong day for semiconductors which many see as the economic indicator. >> apple and semiconductors were a large story yesterday. the largest highest quality mega cap stocks. a divergence again. it does seem as if you had enough of a push there. 4,800 is the intraday high. 4,818...
0
0.0
Jan 3, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman, let's bring him in. this time may be different because of where the market has decided that it's gone, six cuts are baked in now. the average fed official only has three. what are we going to get, do you think? >> i expect the minutes to underscore the commentary since the fed meeting, trying to re in the market back in, bring it closer to its side. i don't know the extent we get strong language, i think the market if it's looking for a date or looking for a higher amount of cuts out there, i don't think it will get it today. it shouldn't be a surprise to the extent they've been saying, no, no, not quite so fast. not quite so much. that should be the tenor of the minutes. you can't be sure how the market will react when it see it is in black and white. >> barkan, cuts depend on market raising. we believe cuts are on the table. >> the market was given an inch and it forecast a mile is the best way to put it. barkin, i think, was reflective of where the center is. they're not going -- they're not off the t
steve liesman, let's bring him in. this time may be different because of where the market has decided that it's gone, six cuts are baked in now. the average fed official only has three. what are we going to get, do you think? >> i expect the minutes to underscore the commentary since the fed meeting, trying to re in the market back in, bring it closer to its side. i don't know the extent we get strong language, i think the market if it's looking for a date or looking for a higher amount...
0
0.0
Jan 19, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
i'm melissa lee with steve liesman along with mike santoli. u.s. equities at this hour look to continue the gains made in the technology. nasdaq is opening higher by 131 points. s&p is adding 119. we are talking about key levels. strong day for semiconductors which many see as the economic indicator. >> apple and semiconductors were a large story yesterday. the largest highest quality mega cap stocks. a divergence again. it does seem as if you had enough of a push there. 4,800 is the intraday high. 4,818 is the all-time high. we are flirting with the same levels. if you open here, you are in the zone of the closing high. >> nasdaq 100 in particular. already at the high. >>> treasury yields is creeping higher. the ten-year yield at 4.14%. it is amazing the yield and how much it moved in the week. it has the chance of the fed rate cut go down a little the bit and you see the old bplaybok resume in the play to safety. >> i'm interested in the fed rhetoric has clawed back a bit of the optimism out there about rate cuts. i have a chart on that if we can
i'm melissa lee with steve liesman along with mike santoli. u.s. equities at this hour look to continue the gains made in the technology. nasdaq is opening higher by 131 points. s&p is adding 119. we are talking about key levels. strong day for semiconductors which many see as the economic indicator. >> apple and semiconductors were a large story yesterday. the largest highest quality mega cap stocks. a divergence again. it does seem as if you had enough of a push there. 4,800 is the...
0
0.0
Jan 31, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman is our senior economics reporter. the other big story of the day down in d.c. let's not go bancorp first. let's go powell. it's all in the language. >> reporter: it is. that's the opposite of the way i ended up thinking you were going to ask about it, scott. let me go to the last two screens i gave you rather than the first two. it is about the statement, and the statement in question, scott, is the one that says the fed had telegraphed it was going to be hiking in the future, additional firming and what happens to that in determining any policy firming that may be appropriate. i was told this is what the fed needs to do. the fed needs to say, you know what, march isn't happening. may and june is probably happening, but we're doing pretty good. we're on the way there. guhu says, we're on track, our lean is may or june not march, having taken a lesson from last month, scott, where the fed -- really the fed chair is the one who sort of ignited a much more dovish response to the policy change than the fed itself wanted. >> we'll be listening for the language and r
steve liesman is our senior economics reporter. the other big story of the day down in d.c. let's not go bancorp first. let's go powell. it's all in the language. >> reporter: it is. that's the opposite of the way i ended up thinking you were going to ask about it, scott. let me go to the last two screens i gave you rather than the first two. it is about the statement, and the statement in question, scott, is the one that says the fed had telegraphed it was going to be hiking in the...
0
0.0
Jan 30, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman. >>> our next guest says equities will likely struggle if rates rise because of shifts or the balance of treasury supply and demand. equity strategist with a target of 5100, david costsen, welcome to you sir. >> nice to see you. >> you got back from traveling the world. europe and asia. i'm curious, what you're hearing from global investors and what they're excited about? >> so, sara, for the last 30 years, the macro strategy team at goldman has traveled to europe and asia. we're in london, paris, zurich and frank further in the second week of january. we have an opportunity to exchange views and head to asia and visit clients in japan, hong kong and singapore. there are a couple of takeaways i thought was interesting this year, relative to previous years. first of all we do a survey and about half of the portfolio managers are anticipating equity returns on a global basis between 0 and 10% which is pretty consistent with our forecast. we're up 3.5% in the united states, maybe another 3.5% left to go. pretty modest upside as you indicated to 5,100. that's consistent. ab
steve liesman. >>> our next guest says equities will likely struggle if rates rise because of shifts or the balance of treasury supply and demand. equity strategist with a target of 5100, david costsen, welcome to you sir. >> nice to see you. >> you got back from traveling the world. europe and asia. i'm curious, what you're hearing from global investors and what they're excited about? >> so, sara, for the last 30 years, the macro strategy team at goldman has traveled...
0
0.0
Jan 10, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
. >>> got some new consumer data steve liesman has that this morning.l. the cnbc retail monitor using actual credit card data from affinity solutions shows retailers chalking up decent gains but the true state of spending may be clouded by a new factor, guys, which is deflation. retail sales taking on auto and gas. that's our top line monitor. up 0.4%. down from that really strong november 0.8% gain. core retail taking out restaurants struggling a bit more. 0.2% compared to 0.7 in november. for the year, monitor was up 3.1 and core up 2.4%. economists have been expecting a cooldown after the outsized growth in the third quarter. too soon to say if it's the beginning of the broader consumer slow down people have been looking for. what we know, retail has been hampered by a slowdown in housing. all three of the biggest negatives are housing related, electronics and appliances down 3.2. gardening and home furnishings down 1% or more. traditional holiday retail, did better. people were out in force at the restaurants and bars and non-store retailers, that i
. >>> got some new consumer data steve liesman has that this morning.l. the cnbc retail monitor using actual credit card data from affinity solutions shows retailers chalking up decent gains but the true state of spending may be clouded by a new factor, guys, which is deflation. retail sales taking on auto and gas. that's our top line monitor. up 0.4%. down from that really strong november 0.8% gain. core retail taking out restaurants struggling a bit more. 0.2% compared to 0.7 in...
0
0.0
Jan 23, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman has your latest predictions in our latest cnbc rapid update. steve. >> hey, tyler. this has been going on for a while. economists surveyed, they've again had to upgrade their outlook for the first and fourth quarters, but continue that growth slump, which never seems to come. the 18 economists we surveyed see gdp at 1.9 in the fourth quarter. they had a stab at this back in october at 1.4, this quarter almost up a quarter percentage. economists continue to see it right there, forecasts that slump that never comes, beginning in the second quarter where growth will drop below 1%. that has been a feature of the forecast for a couple of years now, where economists see growth slipping below potential in coming quarters. then they have to raise their outlook as the data come in better than expected. of course, the average highs differences. goldman, they're not in the very much anymore. they see trend growth throughout the year. but economists at citi, they're looking for what looks like a recession. two negative quarters in a row right there. econom
steve liesman has your latest predictions in our latest cnbc rapid update. steve. >> hey, tyler. this has been going on for a while. economists surveyed, they've again had to upgrade their outlook for the first and fourth quarters, but continue that growth slump, which never seems to come. the 18 economists we surveyed see gdp at 1.9 in the fourth quarter. they had a stab at this back in october at 1.4, this quarter almost up a quarter percentage. economists continue to see it right...
0
0.0
Jan 5, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman here to put some of these numbers in context. than expected jobs report is what the fed has been trying to communicate, improving on the inflation front and slowing of the economy will not be a straight line, but beneath the hood there's slowing i think worth noting. i want to look at the three-month average for total and private payrolls. the number is up 165,000 over the past three months but that's down from 334,000 a year ago in january 2023. private sector also more importantly 115,000 down from 221,000. more than half of the number from last year. private sector gaining 164. that's because government is up 52,000. government trying to recoup the employment levels it had from before the pandemic. it's just barely reechgds it now. that doesn't account for any growth in the economy. there's leisure and hospitality along with health care. that's just going to do well no matter what is going on in the economy. the transportation and warehousing and temporary help perhaps the last one a leading indicator, softening and softening
steve liesman here to put some of these numbers in context. than expected jobs report is what the fed has been trying to communicate, improving on the inflation front and slowing of the economy will not be a straight line, but beneath the hood there's slowing i think worth noting. i want to look at the three-month average for total and private payrolls. the number is up 165,000 over the past three months but that's down from 334,000 a year ago in january 2023. private sector also more...
0
0.0
Jan 26, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman joins us, as well. diane, welcome steve, welcome to you. take me through what these numbers tell you, and what they imply about what the fed might do and/or say next week. >> well, the fed has got to be really happy with these numbers. they're just stunningly good, and the cooling of inflation through productivity growth, you couldn't get it a better way there's almost a tinge of the 1990st boom in here, and i think the fed has to be feeling good about itself that said, it still has put itself in this position where it's not ready to cut rates in march, but i think by the time they're going to start discussing rate cuts in ernest at the january meeting, and then the debate is going to get really heated in march to have that may cut instead of waiting until june this is, you know, at the same time, we have some people rotating into voting positions, who have already staked themselves out as wanting later rate cuts out there. i think that's what the navigation is going to be. but it's going to be hard for
liesman joins us, as well. diane, welcome steve, welcome to you. take me through what these numbers tell you, and what they imply about what the fed might do and/or say next week. >> well, the fed has got to be really happy with these numbers. they're just stunningly good, and the cooling of inflation through productivity growth, you couldn't get it a better way there's almost a tinge of the 1990st boom in here, and i think the fed has to be feeling good about itself that said, it still...
0
0.0
Jan 17, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
. >> hold those thoughts for a second because we want to get to steve liesman for the headlines. from that book report, what can you tell us about the american economy? >>> little or no change in economic activity in the days since the prior beige book which noted slower economic activity. three districts reported modest growth, when a moderate decline, the others were no change but there was good news on the consumer front, dominic, consumers matt holliday spending expectations in most districts, exceeded in three districts and one of those was new york, which was the highlight as having strong retail sales, as well several districts increased leisure travel. that's the good news. all districts reported decline in manufacturing activity anti interest rates were limiting auto cells as well as real estate deals. on the other side, the prospects of falling rates according to the sources that we are talking to the federal reserve, a source of optimism. among the risks of the office market, a weakening demand and 2024 election cycle were cited as sources of economic uncertainty. on t
. >> hold those thoughts for a second because we want to get to steve liesman for the headlines. from that book report, what can you tell us about the american economy? >>> little or no change in economic activity in the days since the prior beige book which noted slower economic activity. three districts reported modest growth, when a moderate decline, the others were no change but there was good news on the consumer front, dominic, consumers matt holliday spending expectations...
0
0.0
Jan 9, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman has a closer look. >> the december jobs report was hailed as strong and it capped a year with payrolls rose by 2.7 million. consistent downward revisions raise questions about whether there is broader economic weakness under the hood of this economy here. the bls revised down job growth in 10 of the 11 months in 2023 by 42,000 per month. we don't know about all the revisions to november and december. the question is, why are the data being revised and what does it mean for the u.s. economy? i talked to two top bls economists from the payroll division. they explained to me revisions are mostly but not entirely in this past year have come from problems with seasonable adjustments, impacted by large swings in the jobs numbers from the paemndemic and after it. but consistent revisions can occur during transitions. the last time we had a consistent year of downward revisions, 2008 when there was a recession and that year 11 of 12, or call it 92% of the months were revised down compared to 91% in '23. you can see the average is slightly upward revisions, at least somewhat. so t
steve liesman has a closer look. >> the december jobs report was hailed as strong and it capped a year with payrolls rose by 2.7 million. consistent downward revisions raise questions about whether there is broader economic weakness under the hood of this economy here. the bls revised down job growth in 10 of the 11 months in 2023 by 42,000 per month. we don't know about all the revisions to november and december. the question is, why are the data being revised and what does it mean for...
0
0.0
Jan 13, 2024
01/24
by
MSNBCW
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
our nightcap isn't in here to talk about every thing, steve liesman, senior economics reporter. katie phang, msnbc legal analyst and host of the katie phang show at noon on saturdays right here on msnbc. -- a special correspondent for vanity fair, and josh donaldson, the former executive producer for showtime's -- and guys, here we go, steve, i turn to you first. nikki haley and ron desantis showed up, debated, clearly they hit one another's guts. donald trump did not participate in the debate. but what did desantis and haley achieve? where do we go from there with these two? >> i feel like bludgeoned each other pretty well. i don't know that they advanced either of their causes. it's the numbers, the numbers just show donald trump way ahead. i'm trying to find isn't with brett stevens from the new york times who wrote a column today about how to understand and appreciate people's love for donald trump. but that is what is going to happen, and we are headed for this rematch of donald trump and joe biden. i think it is an election that the public does not want. but it is an elect
our nightcap isn't in here to talk about every thing, steve liesman, senior economics reporter. katie phang, msnbc legal analyst and host of the katie phang show at noon on saturdays right here on msnbc. -- a special correspondent for vanity fair, and josh donaldson, the former executive producer for showtime's -- and guys, here we go, steve, i turn to you first. nikki haley and ron desantis showed up, debated, clearly they hit one another's guts. donald trump did not participate in the debate....
0
0.0
Jan 5, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
let's not get ahead of steve liesman, who is sitting right here. >> i have an up and down on that.hink the stronger than expected markets is what the fed has been talking about. the improvement in inflation and slowing in the economy is not a straight line, but there is slowing going on. there were downward revisions of 71,000. unemployment rate, down to 3.7%. a tick down, that wasn't good. average hourly earnings up 4.1%. there was some weakness here. three-month average for the total shows it's declined to 165,000 from 3.34. the private sector has fallen to 271 last january. so the three-month average is cooling. private sector up 164,000 this month, but government was 52,000 of the total there. leisure and hospitality still making up ground from the pandemic. health care, it doesn't matter what is going on with the economy. we need nurses and doctors. other cooling signs came from the service sector with a top line below expectations. the price component and the employment index both fell. this is what i was talking about here. all of this data created a lot of volatility in the
let's not get ahead of steve liesman, who is sitting right here. >> i have an up and down on that.hink the stronger than expected markets is what the fed has been talking about. the improvement in inflation and slowing in the economy is not a straight line, but there is slowing going on. there were downward revisions of 71,000. unemployment rate, down to 3.7%. a tick down, that wasn't good. average hourly earnings up 4.1%. there was some weakness here. three-month average for the total...
0
0.0
Jan 17, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
let's explore why with mark zandi, chief exist at rudy's, along with cnbc's steve liesman.come to both of you mark, if the economy's performance is about as good as it gets, why do you say that recession risks are still elevated at 25%? down from the 50% you thought was likely last year, didn't happen but why do you think recession risks are still elevated in an economy that is performing well? >> i don't think that we can feel entirely comfortable about the economic outlook until the fed starts lowering interest rates. they're close. they're gearing up for it. they're forecasting three rate cuts this year, a quarter point each time. so we're almost there, but until that happens, you know, it's hard to declare the coast is clear here with rates this high, the yoeld curve is inverted as it is, that puts a lot of pressure on the banking system so things can go off the rails so, you know, i'm feeling pretty good about the economy all the trend lines look really good the risks to recession are starting to fade i think there's some upside risks potentially for the economy, as we
let's explore why with mark zandi, chief exist at rudy's, along with cnbc's steve liesman.come to both of you mark, if the economy's performance is about as good as it gets, why do you say that recession risks are still elevated at 25%? down from the 50% you thought was likely last year, didn't happen but why do you think recession risks are still elevated in an economy that is performing well? >> i don't think that we can feel entirely comfortable about the economic outlook until the fed...
0
0.0
Jan 19, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
>> steve liesman, appreciate it. >>> the s&p is within striking distance of its intraday record of 4818. the nasdaq on pace for 11 positive weeks out of 12. let's get the street's take on where stocks go from here. capital markets chief investment strategist brian belski has an s&p target of 5100. before we dig into that, a couple pieces of economic data. what do you make of those reports that consumer sentiment number strong at 78.8 versus 70.2. >> thank you for having us. it's been a while. so our case all along has been that this is not going to be about growth slowing down. it's about inflation rolling over. it seems to me, i'm still befuddled on how everything thought the fed would cut in march. i don't know where that came from. fed funds futures have been wrong for two years, the bond market wrong for two years. and you know, we stand by one thing, stocks lead earnings which lead the economy. and the stock market has been strong and it's telling you that growth is going to be strong. remember a year ago everyb
>> steve liesman, appreciate it. >>> the s&p is within striking distance of its intraday record of 4818. the nasdaq on pace for 11 positive weeks out of 12. let's get the street's take on where stocks go from here. capital markets chief investment strategist brian belski has an s&p target of 5100. before we dig into that, a couple pieces of economic data. what do you make of those reports that consumer sentiment number strong at 78.8 versus 70.2. >> thank you for...
0
0.0
Jan 12, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman has the details.i look at today's inflation number, i guess it's a little more encouraging than yesterday's, which another network characterized this as skyrocketing inflation. i didn't see it that way. did you? >> no, it was a miss to the upside, but it was interesting to see the way the market traded. a little spooky yesterday after the 8:30 number. then it calmed down. i wonder if it was sort of looking forward to this. now, if you look at the story, the price index came in below expectations. why all the focus on it? it suggests little inflationary pressure on the supply chain. it prompts economists to estimate the core pce -- 1.5%, that is, it would hit the inflation's target. the core ppi, probability of a march cut was 69% and shot up to 80%, where it's trading about now. pantheon answers tyler's questions and says -- >> you saw yields decline by up to -- what do you want to call it? 15 basis points at one point. now down about, oh, i don't know, 13 or 14 from where it started before the number
steve liesman has the details.i look at today's inflation number, i guess it's a little more encouraging than yesterday's, which another network characterized this as skyrocketing inflation. i didn't see it that way. did you? >> no, it was a miss to the upside, but it was interesting to see the way the market traded. a little spooky yesterday after the 8:30 number. then it calmed down. i wonder if it was sort of looking forward to this. now, if you look at the story, the price index came...
0
0.0
Jan 25, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
former chief economist at the national economic council our own steve liesman. steve, to you first.characterize it as kind of goldilocks some of the numbers one hot, butted gdp number, 3.3 amazingly good isn't it >> it's very good, joe it is really interesting there was a negative number expected by a lot of economists when it came to the contribution of inventories didn't happen. may mean there's an inventory in our future rick talked about retail inventory surging, but i think the story, it's a lot of data, and hats off to rick for his clear and cogent reporting of all of that data i think maybe is summarizes to this my bill maher imitation on the economy. nothing to do with inflation the story, we continue to have -- if this were one quarter i'd throw it aside and say, you know what? aberration continually throughout the year we've had strong growth and in this case stronger growth than expected, and relatively benign and inflation numbers coming down i'm going to leave it there, joe, and just say, look. look at the inflation numbers. they remain at 2%. gdp inflater 1.5%. relativ
former chief economist at the national economic council our own steve liesman. steve, to you first.characterize it as kind of goldilocks some of the numbers one hot, butted gdp number, 3.3 amazingly good isn't it >> it's very good, joe it is really interesting there was a negative number expected by a lot of economists when it came to the contribution of inventories didn't happen. may mean there's an inventory in our future rick talked about retail inventory surging, but i think the...
0
0.0
Jan 17, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman today in the afternoon, he's sort of in the not march camp in terms -- >> he said may >> he's probably right he might be a little early with that, as well. there's nothing compelling to me that would force them -- >> right, why? >> that's what i ask -- >> why would they do that? >> why would you cut right now you don't need to. >> you don't need to and i'm not quite sure, you know -- this level of the s and sp 500, to me, suggests the best possible outcome and i'm still hard pressed to believe we can get there. >>> all right, let's take a little quick turn here strong data out on the housing trade today. the naah b housing market risin to its highest level since september. still, builders were largely down today in the market, with toll brothers leading the losses diana olick has the details on this morning's numbers >> hi, di. >> hey, ty two sets of data out this morning show consumers are getting back into the housing market thanks to the recent drop in mortgage interest rates the mortgage bankers association reported that mortgage applications to buy a home jumped 9% last w
liesman today in the afternoon, he's sort of in the not march camp in terms -- >> he said may >> he's probably right he might be a little early with that, as well. there's nothing compelling to me that would force them -- >> right, why? >> that's what i ask -- >> why would they do that? >> why would you cut right now you don't need to. >> you don't need to and i'm not quite sure, you know -- this level of the s and sp 500, to me, suggests the best...
0
0.0
Jan 12, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman has the details. why is that? >> it's because the ppi affects the pc -- i'm going to explain that in just a second. i think the bigger news is the fed is losing the battle to hold back the march towards march rate cuts. data breaking towards lower inflation and wall street economists backing up where the market is in pricing in those march rate cuts. arch today's better than expected wholesale price report barkley changing the outlook to a march cut, previously had been at june and said rates will decline to 4.25 to 4.50. jpmorgan making a bold call writing, it's all over now qt, quoting bob dylan for those who might be paying attention. tapering qt as soon as april. the producer price index coming in below expectations minus 0.1. suggesting little inflationary pressure up the sly chain, prompting economists to estimate the core pce will be 2.6 to 3% when it's reported january 26 and year over year even 1.5 to 2% on a three-month annualized basis. that is darn near the fed's target, even below it. so what happened
steve liesman has the details. why is that? >> it's because the ppi affects the pc -- i'm going to explain that in just a second. i think the bigger news is the fed is losing the battle to hold back the march towards march rate cuts. data breaking towards lower inflation and wall street economists backing up where the market is in pricing in those march rate cuts. arch today's better than expected wholesale price report barkley changing the outlook to a march cut, previously had been at...
0
0.0
Jan 26, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
to steve, we will see you next week i look forward to that steve liesman let's bring in shannon saccoci of the nbc private wealt conversation good to have you with us you are the professor, he is still bullish. eight to 10% maybe, you could still do. what we've come a long way unreasonably short period of time what is your own view here >> i think it is interesting the professor talked a lot about this rotation, if you, we'll to the wagner is that we have been talking. about since the fourth quarter of last year i am a bit less optimistic if we are talking about growth stocks returnin zero this year, just from benchmark perspective. that is not gonna look and fee great for investors who happen to be overrated to the s&p 500 under the surface you thin about what is happened so fa this year, scott we've seen a little bit of a tick up in yield since the end of the year. we have seen some softness, or weakness, and some of th interest rate sensitiv sectors. those sectors are the ones tha could, potentially, benefi from a more robust economi environment. i agree with steve concern about top
to steve, we will see you next week i look forward to that steve liesman let's bring in shannon saccoci of the nbc private wealt conversation good to have you with us you are the professor, he is still bullish. eight to 10% maybe, you could still do. what we've come a long way unreasonably short period of time what is your own view here >> i think it is interesting the professor talked a lot about this rotation, if you, we'll to the wagner is that we have been talking. about since the...
0
0.0
Jan 3, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman joins us with that. soft landing increasingly foreseeable but cautions not inevitable. potential for rate hikes remains on the table. talked about at the meeting and by jay powell in the news conferences. this depends whether or not there are eases. making progress on inflation, he said. risk to soft landing lagged effects of policy that could make the economy weaker along with unforeseen shocks. also to the other side inflation remaining higher than 2%. he notes that businesses are not going to stop raising prices until they're forced to, and that comes from one of two places. weaker demand or more fed rate hikes could be needed to bring down inflation. the recent decline in yields he points to goes the wrong way along the rise in the stock market saying it could stimulate demand. any downturn he says, though, not likely to be severe, because you have late demand to keep consumer spending along with businesses prepare fooing for dt turn. officials had spoken about rate cuts. investors xruntscrutinize th
steve liesman joins us with that. soft landing increasingly foreseeable but cautions not inevitable. potential for rate hikes remains on the table. talked about at the meeting and by jay powell in the news conferences. this depends whether or not there are eases. making progress on inflation, he said. risk to soft landing lagged effects of policy that could make the economy weaker along with unforeseen shocks. also to the other side inflation remaining higher than 2%. he notes that businesses...
0
0.0
Jan 9, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman is at the desk this morning. >> good morning, andrew.eport was hailed a as a strong report, capping a year in payrolls by 2.7 million, consistent downward revisions to the data raised questions about whether there's broader economic weakness underneath the surface. the bls revised down job growth in 10 of the 11 months last year by an average of 42,000 per month. we don't know yet about all of november and december. the question is, why are the data being revised and what does it all mean for the economy? i talked to two top bls economists. they explained to me that the revisions are mostly if not entirely from seasonal adjustments. seasonals have been impacted by big swings up and down during the pandemic and post-pandemic years. but consistent revisions can occur during economic transitions. well, the last time we had such a consistent year of downward revisions, 2008, when the economy was entering a recession. in that year, 11 of 12 or 92% of them were revised down, compared to 91% so far in '23. since 2001, you can see on the right s
steve liesman is at the desk this morning. >> good morning, andrew.eport was hailed a as a strong report, capping a year in payrolls by 2.7 million, consistent downward revisions to the data raised questions about whether there's broader economic weakness underneath the surface. the bls revised down job growth in 10 of the 11 months last year by an average of 42,000 per month. we don't know yet about all of november and december. the question is, why are the data being revised and what...
0
0.0
Jan 17, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
. >>> new data from the nrf, let's get to steve liesman >> good morning, carl.il sales report allows the national retail federation to calculate what kind of christmas it was, and it was a good christmas not a great christmas. but most of all, it was a normal christmas. i will say the dollar value was up to 964 billion that's a new record but it was up 3.82% year over year in the range of the nrf forecast it was back towards the 2019 prepandemic era after the craziness of the last couple of years. with goods deflation or flat prices, that number is a good number it's just above the prepandemic average so back to normal there, the economist for the nrf said consumer spending was remarkably resilient throughout 2023, finished the year with a solid pace for the holiday season. >> as you know, this number today is upsetting markets when it comes to the outlook for the fed. it's strong and it's going to cause economists to upgrade their fourth quarter forecast. as well as by the way, the first quarter. so this number put the fed in flux and the outlook for the econom
. >>> new data from the nrf, let's get to steve liesman >> good morning, carl.il sales report allows the national retail federation to calculate what kind of christmas it was, and it was a good christmas not a great christmas. but most of all, it was a normal christmas. i will say the dollar value was up to 964 billion that's a new record but it was up 3.82% year over year in the range of the nrf forecast it was back towards the 2019 prepandemic era after the craziness of the...
0
0.0
Jan 3, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman joins us from washington with more on what to watch out for. >> tom bark inn this morning what the minutes may say, cuts are pencilled in but no they're not guaranteed and may not come as quickly or extensively as markets expect. barkin saying the soft landing is conceivable. he sees the case for it but it's not inevitable. there's a potential for four rate hikes, remains on the table and the cuts depend on the inflation data and easing. talk about the data in a second. he said weaker demand or more fed hikes may be needed to bring down inflation and the recent decline in yields and stock market could stimulate demand. markets trade with a 71% probability of a march cut, priced in a quarter point high. the january 25, look at that, six full cuts baked in with a current yield of 384. that compares to the average, baked in just three rate cuts to their forecast. most officials are trying to lean against the aggressive rate pricing but not having much luck. minutes offer evidence there's more uncertainty than the market has priced in. i think the quit rate did come down, that
steve liesman joins us from washington with more on what to watch out for. >> tom bark inn this morning what the minutes may say, cuts are pencilled in but no they're not guaranteed and may not come as quickly or extensively as markets expect. barkin saying the soft landing is conceivable. he sees the case for it but it's not inevitable. there's a potential for four rate hikes, remains on the table and the cuts depend on the inflation data and easing. talk about the data in a second. he...
0
0.0
Jan 11, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman.g the fed tried to prepare the markets for. the idea that, yes, there is improvement in inflation and john williams fed president said yesterday, new york, it's significant. no doubt, despite the numbers. trajectory, getting from here to there is not a straight line. data can be both noisy and can bounce around quite a bit. interesting numbers here that not all of which make a lot of sense to me. one thing we see here is that in december there's some reversal of some of the declines we had in prior months. first thing i will say is, we did not get any help on owners of equivalent rent part. up 0.5% continuing same level at last month and kind of defying what we're seeing out in some of the market-based metrics what's happening in rents. bottom line, cpi has not picked up decline in housing. we saw new vehicles up 0.3%. used up 0.5. airline fares up 1% and actually the energy sector added to inflation as well. leave it there,ing except to say all categories essentially on the decline at
liesman.g the fed tried to prepare the markets for. the idea that, yes, there is improvement in inflation and john williams fed president said yesterday, new york, it's significant. no doubt, despite the numbers. trajectory, getting from here to there is not a straight line. data can be both noisy and can bounce around quite a bit. interesting numbers here that not all of which make a lot of sense to me. one thing we see here is that in december there's some reversal of some of the declines we...
0
0.0
Jan 31, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
we'll get steve liesman coming up in a bit. yeah. steve? >> thank you very much. robert, thank you.180,000. it's a miss. estimate 150 coming in 107. good sector doing okay, plus services doing good. up. and non-pay roll 187,000, friday, including government and private sector as well. so it's always going to be a little different, but in this case maybe quite a bit different. see what happens. december adp revised down slightly from 164 to 158. i do want to highlight here that, the change in their wage calculations, which jobs stayers got a 5.2% down from 5.4 in december. slowest wage gains since august 2021. job changers, 77772, and h highlighting data coming in at 8:30. employ index something powell watches closely. jobs by business size. small business secretary hear been keeping pace with medium and larger with concern as wages went up. small business would not be able to keep pace, but they have been. up 25,000. medium up 61,000 and large, up 31,000. job growth from expected sectors some from unexpected sectors. leisure and hospitality atop list as throughout the postpandemic r
we'll get steve liesman coming up in a bit. yeah. steve? >> thank you very much. robert, thank you.180,000. it's a miss. estimate 150 coming in 107. good sector doing okay, plus services doing good. up. and non-pay roll 187,000, friday, including government and private sector as well. so it's always going to be a little different, but in this case maybe quite a bit different. see what happens. december adp revised down slightly from 164 to 158. i do want to highlight here that, the change...
0
0.0
Jan 30, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
. >>> the fed kicking off its two-day meeting today, but steve liesman is here and will give us the latestbc fed survey. >> good morning, becky. respondents to the survey see fewer cuts and starting later, just 9% predict a market, and only in june is there a majority of 70% looking for a rate cut by futures markets priced in almost six cuts, and the fed is expected to end the reduction of the balance sheet by november. meanwhile, the probability of recession remains elevated, 39%, the lowest level since the twinge of 2022. the fed will cut rates at every other meeting pace and that will begin in june, and you can see the up and down there starting in june. and 56% say the bigger risk is the fed cuts too late, while 44% say the risk is going too early. the president of naroff economics said there's little reason to expect major slowdown in the economy. recession probabilities fell for the second month in a row. the probability remains unchanged. it's fairly typical for this group to be more closely aligned with the fed's own outlook than with the markets. the question remains who has this,
. >>> the fed kicking off its two-day meeting today, but steve liesman is here and will give us the latestbc fed survey. >> good morning, becky. respondents to the survey see fewer cuts and starting later, just 9% predict a market, and only in june is there a majority of 70% looking for a rate cut by futures markets priced in almost six cuts, and the fed is expected to end the reduction of the balance sheet by november. meanwhile, the probability of recession remains elevated,...
0
0.0
Jan 10, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman joins us this morning with the number there's. steve? >> hey, good morning, andrew.ber, which uses actual credit card data from affinity solutions show retailers going up but the true state of spending may now be clouded by a new factor. deflation. retail sales auto and gas according to the cnbc national retail federation monitor up 0.4%. that's just a bit below the average from the strong number of 0.8% in the prior month. year over year slips to 3.1 from 4.2. core retail sales removes restaurants. struggled a bit. up 0.2% compared to 0.7% in the prior month. year over year 2-4 versus 4-2 in the last reading's some give back from the strong numbers inevitable. economists expect the economy to cool overall fourth quarter after outsized growth numbers in the third. simply too soon to say if it's beginning of a broader consumer slowdown worth watching. however whoo, what we know, slo in housing industry. all thee biggest negative numbers are housing related. housing and appliances down, furniture and home furnishing down. but general merchandise stores did okay. people
steve liesman joins us this morning with the number there's. steve? >> hey, good morning, andrew.ber, which uses actual credit card data from affinity solutions show retailers going up but the true state of spending may now be clouded by a new factor. deflation. retail sales auto and gas according to the cnbc national retail federation monitor up 0.4%. that's just a bit below the average from the strong number of 0.8% in the prior month. year over year slips to 3.1 from 4.2. core retail...
0
0.0
Jan 22, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
senior economics reporter steve liesman, who covers the dismal science has more on this upbeat story.h, in contrast to the inflation funk that's been all around the country, looks to be a rash of optimism breaking out over the economy among boath businesses and consumers. the latest nabe survey finds the three-month outlook for sales outlooks surges, that's the highest percentage since the second quarter of 2021. a net 30% see improved profit margins, which is above the pre-pandemic level and the best since 2015. fewer businesses are expecting to charge higher prices, though a larger percentage see higher costs ahead. the level is below the long-run average for the series. nabe president, morgan stanley chief economist writing the january 2024 business conditions survey results suggest broad improvement with responsibilities reporting rising sales, profit margins, and capital spending while supply chains are improving as well. while it's not entirely clear what's driving renewed business sentiment, it could be the same thing that's driving consumer sentiment, higher lower inflation. t
senior economics reporter steve liesman, who covers the dismal science has more on this upbeat story.h, in contrast to the inflation funk that's been all around the country, looks to be a rash of optimism breaking out over the economy among boath businesses and consumers. the latest nabe survey finds the three-month outlook for sales outlooks surges, that's the highest percentage since the second quarter of 2021. a net 30% see improved profit margins, which is above the pre-pandemic level and...
0
0.0
Jan 23, 2024
01/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman taking the pulse of some top wall street economists on what to expect., good morning. economists surveyed, they've upgraded their outlook for the fourth quarter and the first, another upgrade in a string of upgrades, but they continue on average to forecast a growth slump. a growth slump that never seems to come. the 18 economists we surveyed see gdp at 1.9% in the fourth quarter, up 1.2% from the october look that we did, and rising 1.4% in this quarter, up almost a full percentage point from the prior outlook. and economists continue to forecast that the slump that never comes, beginning in the second quarter, begins this time in the second quarter, where growth drops below 1%, you can see in that blue line, for two straight quarters. the coming slump has been a feature of the forecast for a couple of years now, where economists see growth slipping below potential or even into recession, but then they have to raise their outlook as the data come in better than expected. of course, the averages hide some differences. you can see here, goldman no longer
liesman taking the pulse of some top wall street economists on what to expect., good morning. economists surveyed, they've upgraded their outlook for the fourth quarter and the first, another upgrade in a string of upgrades, but they continue on average to forecast a growth slump. a growth slump that never seems to come. the 18 economists we surveyed see gdp at 1.9% in the fourth quarter, up 1.2% from the october look that we did, and rising 1.4% in this quarter, up almost a full percentage...