0
0.0
Feb 14, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
our steve liesman is here to weigh in. we'll be right back.uch more "worldwide exchange." ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. awkward question... is there going to be anything left... —left over? —yeah. oh, absolutely. (inner monologue) my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! i want a massage, in amalfi, from someone named giancarlo. and i didn't live in that shoebox for years. not just— with empower, we get all of our financial questions answered. so you don't have to worry. i guess i'll get the caviar... just kidding. join 18 million americans and take control of your financial future with a real time dashboard and real live conversations. empower. what's next. is it possible to count on my internet like my customers count on me? it is with comcast business. keeping you up and running with 99.9% network reliability. and security that helps outsmart threats to your data. moaire dida twoo? your data, too. there's even round-the- clock customer suppo
our steve liesman is here to weigh in. we'll be right back.uch more "worldwide exchange." ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. awkward question... is there going to be anything left... —left over? —yeah. oh, absolutely. (inner monologue) my kids don't know what they want. you know who knows what she wants? me! i want a massage, in amalfi, from someone named giancarlo. and i didn't live in that shoebox for years....
0
0.0
Feb 2, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
a news alert fed governor just making some headlines at the top of this hour steve liesman joins us with what she's saying steve? >> thanks very much. fed governor michelle bowman is one of the more hawkish members of the committee, making comments saying it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower the fed funds rate if inflation continues to decline. she says, however, they're not yet at the point to cut rates. she sees inflation declining, she's encouraged by the recent decline in inflation, but declining with the policy rate held at the current level. upside inflation risk remains. she mentioned geopolitical situation, the easing of financial conditions and continued labor market tightening, she's indeed talking about the december jobs reports and it shows strong job gains. and the recent reports, both months, she says progress has stalled on restoring balance to the jobs market. she's concerned that labor market tightness could lead to persistently higher core service inflation, she'll remain cautious in considering future changes to policy. reducing the rate too so
a news alert fed governor just making some headlines at the top of this hour steve liesman joins us with what she's saying steve? >> thanks very much. fed governor michelle bowman is one of the more hawkish members of the committee, making comments saying it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower the fed funds rate if inflation continues to decline. she says, however, they're not yet at the point to cut rates. she sees inflation declining, she's encouraged by the recent...
0
0.0
Feb 13, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman. steve, how big a surprise was this, and what is the -- what are the reverberations here? >> well, it's shredding the timeline, tyler. that's really the big story here, calling into question this battle we have against inflation. it really did suffer a setback today with this cp ifx report. it has the market rethinking the fed and what it will take economically to hit the 2% inflation market. headline, a tick higher than the estimated 0.3. the year over year going the other way was expected to fall. instead it rose to 3.1%. the core, a tick higher than the estimate, as well. and there is the core year over year, rising by 0.2 instead of falling. the optimistic view of this upside surprise, there were several one-off price increases in january, which is a time when businesses raise prices, along with the reversal of holiday season discounting, housing inflation a big part of the increase. and that is contrary to the market showing rents falling. meanwhile, the fed's preferred inflation
liesman. steve, how big a surprise was this, and what is the -- what are the reverberations here? >> well, it's shredding the timeline, tyler. that's really the big story here, calling into question this battle we have against inflation. it really did suffer a setback today with this cp ifx report. it has the market rethinking the fed and what it will take economically to hit the 2% inflation market. headline, a tick higher than the estimated 0.3. the year over year going the other way...
0
0.0
Feb 22, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman is here to explain. steve. >> hey, tyler, the outlook for rate cuts this year continues to sink today after the fed vice chair suggested that the central bank may deliver tepid easing at best phil jefferson saying it's likely appropriate to reduce the restraint later this year. the policy he says is well into restrictive territory. but then he praised the 1995 easing cycle i'm going to tell you what that may mean he quoted his predecessor from the '90s, who described in a "wall street journal" op-ed the 1995 episode as the perfect soft landing. that year, the fed only did a single quarter point cut, followed by five months later of two more quarter point cuts and remaining on hold for 14 months. jefferson didn't explicitly say that's the model, but made positive comments about it, suggesting he's thinking about a very tentative easing cycle, at least to start he also mentioned these risks to consumer spending could be more resilient, employment weakening and geopolitical risks remaining elevated together
steve liesman is here to explain. steve. >> hey, tyler, the outlook for rate cuts this year continues to sink today after the fed vice chair suggested that the central bank may deliver tepid easing at best phil jefferson saying it's likely appropriate to reduce the restraint later this year. the policy he says is well into restrictive territory. but then he praised the 1995 easing cycle i'm going to tell you what that may mean he quoted his predecessor from the '90s, who described in a...
0
0.0
Feb 1, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman, as well steve, i honestly -- you know me, never at a loss for words. i think i am this time i don't know where to start with you, because everybody is focused on rates i get that but with the job market showing some cracks, with commercial real estate maybe and the banks showing cracks, could the fed focus also shift a little more to the other side of their twin obligations, and that is jobs? >> yeah, i think that's a good question, brian. and i think it may be starting to but i think it needs -- just like it needs a little more data to be confident to cut rates, it will need more data of weak job growth to make that call you still have relatively low jobless claims and the adp signaled somewhat weaker employment growth, as did the ism this morning i think there's a couple months of weaker job growth, the fed may increasingly put its focus there. it could speed up the timetable a bit. but i think the data has to be pretty bad for that to happen. >> david, do you expect we'll get that kind of -- to steve's point, quote unquote, bad data and see that shi
liesman, as well steve, i honestly -- you know me, never at a loss for words. i think i am this time i don't know where to start with you, because everybody is focused on rates i get that but with the job market showing some cracks, with commercial real estate maybe and the banks showing cracks, could the fed focus also shift a little more to the other side of their twin obligations, and that is jobs? >> yeah, i think that's a good question, brian. and i think it may be starting to but i...
0
0.0
Feb 1, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman joins us now with more steve?ssa the fed acknowledging cuts are on the way, but disappointing markets when fed chair jay powell took the march rate cuts off the table. >> based on the meeting today, i would tell you that i don't think it is likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the march meeting to identify march as the time to do that but that's to be seen. >> all right, so the fed policy statement took cuts off the table, said cuts are coming, but the committee needs more confidence that inflation is heading back down toward 2% target, even though it has been there for six months it found risks better balance between inflation and unemployment mandates. the probability of a march rate cut sinking from nearly 60% earlier in the day on concerns about banks, to just 36% this morning, but futures markets trade, as if may or june is a near certainty 99, 100% for some of those later months now, this is interesting, while markets are now priced in later cuts, the year end funds contr
liesman joins us now with more steve?ssa the fed acknowledging cuts are on the way, but disappointing markets when fed chair jay powell took the march rate cuts off the table. >> based on the meeting today, i would tell you that i don't think it is likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the march meeting to identify march as the time to do that but that's to be seen. >> all right, so the fed policy statement took cuts off the table, said cuts are...
0
0.0
Feb 21, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve, thank you so much. that was steve liesman, our senior reporter. robert, it is good to have you in our program. >> good to see you, scott. >> some are concerned inflation progress could stall. do you share those concerns? >> yes, i do. i think if i were sitting at the fed, i would want to see more evidence that this inflation improvement is going to continue and the reason that i would be very cautious is substantial amount of the fiscal spending. inflation reduction act spending, infrastructure act, unspent money. i think while monetary policy is very restrictive, fiscal policy is very stimulative. and so, i would be on guard about that if i were at the fed. >> how much more evidence is warranted before they actually make that first move to cut rates? they have already suggested they will cut before inflation gets down to target anyway, but what is the magic evidence or the magic number that allows powell to do that? >> they are expecting continued disinflation on goods, even with the supply chain issues in the middle east. the sector i would be w
steve, thank you so much. that was steve liesman, our senior reporter. robert, it is good to have you in our program. >> good to see you, scott. >> some are concerned inflation progress could stall. do you share those concerns? >> yes, i do. i think if i were sitting at the fed, i would want to see more evidence that this inflation improvement is going to continue and the reason that i would be very cautious is substantial amount of the fiscal spending. inflation reduction act...
0
0.0
Feb 15, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
brian weinstein, steve liesman, great discussion. we have covered the globe. >> can i come on your trip? >> if steve says okay, because it's his jet. we need a big one, steve. >> i thought you had the jet. you know what, brian? you can come, you just pay for the gas. >> no problem. >> guys, thank you. >>> by the way, we'll get another read on the economy tomorrow from the atlanta fed president on a show called "money movers." >>> on deck, selling tesla, buying nvidia. but is it time to flip that trade? jeff killberg's call, next. >>> nat gas crashing. how low can it really go? we'll speak with the head of the country's largest nat gas producer. stick around. >>> welcome back. let's get some new infoe on what retail traders are doing right now. some investors are apparently scaling back, buying the mag seven post earnings. but then that little dip that we just had apparently brought back in some hungry traders. let's find out more some of the retail trends. kate rooney has today's "tech check" with more on some of the names being targ
brian weinstein, steve liesman, great discussion. we have covered the globe. >> can i come on your trip? >> if steve says okay, because it's his jet. we need a big one, steve. >> i thought you had the jet. you know what, brian? you can come, you just pay for the gas. >> no problem. >> guys, thank you. >>> by the way, we'll get another read on the economy tomorrow from the atlanta fed president on a show called "money movers." >>> on...
0
0.0
Feb 26, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman and ellen zentner, thank you very much for your thoughts. thank you. >>> our next guest says the good news about the economy speaking of that story, might already be priced in and that's one of the reasons why he's cautious on the market outlook. joining me now with more on that -- plus, key takeaways, by the way, of warren buffett's letter and a longtime berkshire hathaway shareholder, as well. let's start, though, with the economic question that we just brought steve and ellen into. it's that there is still a very, very large amount of uncertainty. is it enough to derail the market? >> i completely agree with the part that there is no sign of recession right now and i'm not calling for one. what more is saying, at least the way i think of it is a lot of the market is priced into the soft landing and a good outcome. that means that the outcome, as you know, stocks get priced on expectations, and i think right now expectations have climbed and again, if it delivers that will be all fine and that combined with obviously, we've seen lots of go
steve liesman and ellen zentner, thank you very much for your thoughts. thank you. >>> our next guest says the good news about the economy speaking of that story, might already be priced in and that's one of the reasons why he's cautious on the market outlook. joining me now with more on that -- plus, key takeaways, by the way, of warren buffett's letter and a longtime berkshire hathaway shareholder, as well. let's start, though, with the economic question that we just brought steve...
0
0.0
Feb 28, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman has the latest details there.ve? >> yeah. dom, thanks. the fed president expects the inflation to return to 2%, but it will be bumpy along the way he expects slower gdp growth we got a gdp report this morning that was slow for the fourth quarter. still strong for the first quarter here williams says the labor market should be returning to normal over time. it is already showing signs of that he says that the journey to 2% inflation is not over and still has a ways to go i don't know if this is significant or not, but last week he talked to axios and talked about his expectation that the fed -- it would be appropriate to cut rates this year, but he doesn't mention that maybe that's an oversight. we'll see if he repeats that today. susan colins from the boston fed said the fed is likely to ease policy she does pick up the mantle on that, sees rates declining gradually and expects the economy will slow, but says it's essential not to ease too soon or to wait too long. she does not believe that wage increases are fuel
liesman has the latest details there.ve? >> yeah. dom, thanks. the fed president expects the inflation to return to 2%, but it will be bumpy along the way he expects slower gdp growth we got a gdp report this morning that was slow for the fourth quarter. still strong for the first quarter here williams says the labor market should be returning to normal over time. it is already showing signs of that he says that the journey to 2% inflation is not over and still has a ways to go i don't...
0
0.0
Feb 2, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
michael, thank you very much also, of course, to our own steve liesman.ope you both have a great weekend. >> thank you >>> our next guest says don't be fooled by the data, speaking of. he still thinks a slowdown is coming on the other side of that trade, and when it does, there are three areas of opportunity let's bring in ivory johnson, a member of the cnbc adviser council. this is our ultimate balance play for this particular part of the show, because we've got some more positive, bullish elements coming from our macro economic an less, and we're coming with ivory johnson. you're not quite as optimistic tell us why. >> if you look at for example the gdp numbers, it was outstanding, over 3% but there's something called the deflator they didn't use the cpi numbers, they used 1.3% that increased the gdp growth by 200 basis points we're having this discussion about when the fed will cut interest rates, because when cpi came in lower than expected in november, but what is behind the scenes, what you'll see is that, you know, the cpi numbers assume that healt
michael, thank you very much also, of course, to our own steve liesman.ope you both have a great weekend. >> thank you >>> our next guest says don't be fooled by the data, speaking of. he still thinks a slowdown is coming on the other side of that trade, and when it does, there are three areas of opportunity let's bring in ivory johnson, a member of the cnbc adviser council. this is our ultimate balance play for this particular part of the show, because we've got some more...
0
0.0
Feb 23, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman, is this the ideal scenario or close to it for the fed?ause you get the sense they don't like to be the story, and right now, the market seems to be moving just fine, and at the same time, the fed's not having to threaten to hike rates, even as some of this overall economic data comes in hotter than many e expected >> i think the fed is happy to be on the sidelines and let stocks respond to what's going on with the economy and earnings it's a place i think the fed prefers to be. but it shouldn't be lulled into a complacency here what it does is going to matter. i think what michael is talking about, and you too john, may be something that is interestingly divorced from the economic cycle. this ai thing, i think, has a life of its own that, if you were in a recession, i think the ai thing would go on more and more, i think this ai thing is linked to secular labor shortage problems, as well as problems in supply chains. all of this should enhance productivity that's going to be a big challenge for the fed if there's a step change in producti
steve liesman, is this the ideal scenario or close to it for the fed?ause you get the sense they don't like to be the story, and right now, the market seems to be moving just fine, and at the same time, the fed's not having to threaten to hike rates, even as some of this overall economic data comes in hotter than many e expected >> i think the fed is happy to be on the sidelines and let stocks respond to what's going on with the economy and earnings it's a place i think the fed prefers to...
0
0.0
Feb 16, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
appreciate it, mark and steve liesman.nks, guys. >>> despite a hawkish fed, stocks have proven resilient this year. our next guest says that thesis has been called into question. there's a slew of companies lower guidance and seeing cracks this the consumer. where should you put your money to work? mark smith joins us. good to have you with us. >> thanks for having me on, tyler. >> you just heard the debate with mark and steve liesman. where are you on this? would you take comfort if the fed were to cut rates in march or by may, or is that an urgent need for the fed? >> i would be shocked if the fed cut rates in march. that's just because of the numbers. we've seen a number of different numbers over the last two months. powell going on "60 minutes" saying he doesn't see march where he can cut rates. what does that mean for my clients? my clients are not buying housing. the housing numbers, rates are over 7% on a 30-year fixed. folks are staying where they are. clients have been in their house for 20, 25, 30 years. baby boo
appreciate it, mark and steve liesman.nks, guys. >>> despite a hawkish fed, stocks have proven resilient this year. our next guest says that thesis has been called into question. there's a slew of companies lower guidance and seeing cracks this the consumer. where should you put your money to work? mark smith joins us. good to have you with us. >> thanks for having me on, tyler. >> you just heard the debate with mark and steve liesman. where are you on this? would you take...
0
0.0
Feb 12, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman here with the pulse. steve? >> hey, sara.like consumers took a bit of a break in january with the cnbc monitor, we use credit card data from affinity solutions it registered a modest decline. real estate sales, ex-auto and gas, down 0.2% versus a 0.4% gain in december and 0.7% in november. the core retail that takes out restaurants down 0.4% versus up 0.2%. the year over year increased. the january decline follows two strong months in the heart of the holiday season but it could challenge some of those strong gdp forecasts that are out there for this quarter of around 3%, especially if the weakness is repeated in february and subsequent months. the breakdown that we have. gas stations down 1.3% with the decline in prices, of course, furniture and home furnishings taking it on the chin down 1% with the slowdown in the housing market. food services and drink places down 0.7. it could have been hurt by nasty weather during the month. retailers all up okay. electronic and appliances looks the best of the bunch up 1.3%. here's the
steve liesman here with the pulse. steve? >> hey, sara.like consumers took a bit of a break in january with the cnbc monitor, we use credit card data from affinity solutions it registered a modest decline. real estate sales, ex-auto and gas, down 0.2% versus a 0.4% gain in december and 0.7% in november. the core retail that takes out restaurants down 0.4% versus up 0.2%. the year over year increased. the january decline follows two strong months in the heart of the holiday season but it...
0
0.0
Feb 2, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman i address this look at these numbers, saying, aww, something might be wrong with it.nt data, leads me to one area. seasonalities are screwed up be careful how deep you interpret these numbers. >> okay. >> just to follow-on what rick said, andrew. >> uh-huh? >> the proct for march cut down from 25, even doubt about a may cut down to 70% probability. >> how many cuts for the year, education? >> still five and change instead of six and change. backing off. >> and jason how many cuts this year do you think? >> i think we'll have four, andrew, but they're going to certainly not start in march this isn't one-month's strength. consistent with the last several months of data i don't think this is all noise. >> thanks to the panel all of you thank you for walking us through all of that in realtime. meantime, hand it over to becky on the west coast. becky? >> andrew, thank you. >>> when we come back we will go deeper into the blowout jobs report and the state of the nationwide economy and the labor picture. marc morial from the national urban league will be joining us. stay tun
steve liesman i address this look at these numbers, saying, aww, something might be wrong with it.nt data, leads me to one area. seasonalities are screwed up be careful how deep you interpret these numbers. >> okay. >> just to follow-on what rick said, andrew. >> uh-huh? >> the proct for march cut down from 25, even doubt about a may cut down to 70% probability. >> how many cuts for the year, education? >> still five and change instead of six and change....
0
0.0
Feb 16, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
let's get to steve liesman. he has the headlines, hi, steve what do we think?r voter, another fed official saying that the fed needs time to make its call on whether to change rates. the fed is seeking price stability, quote, built to last. the progress on inflation, she says, is not a victory in itself. this is echo calls by atlanta fed president raphael bostic on cnpc and other fed officials making the same kind of comments. inflation progress has been remarkable. among the risk is the positive inflation momentum may prove hard to sustain over time. the inflation decline results from both improvements in the supply chain and slowing demand, but those supply chain improvements could prove to be near the end, there's a risk that includes slower inflation progress. she is uncertain whether better productivity numbers would continue. the ongoing momentum is a risk to inflation progress. the fed is out there talking monolithcally in one voice. >> interesting to hear from two of the speakers today. very good stuff, steve. >>> let's bring in our own mike santoli her
let's get to steve liesman. he has the headlines, hi, steve what do we think?r voter, another fed official saying that the fed needs time to make its call on whether to change rates. the fed is seeking price stability, quote, built to last. the progress on inflation, she says, is not a victory in itself. this is echo calls by atlanta fed president raphael bostic on cnpc and other fed officials making the same kind of comments. inflation progress has been remarkable. among the risk is the...
0
0.0
Feb 20, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
data is food for thought from our steve liesman.is overweight large caps and tech and recently upgraded financials. keith learner joins us now. happy week, keith. so you're overweight large caps. what does that mean ahead of nvidia? how are you positioned? >> yeah. great to be with you, jon. we're overweight tech and, therefore, we're overweight large cap. that's the biggest part. last week we said that weexpect the tech sector to cool, so we like it longer term. that's where the earners momentum is. we have to be realistic. nvidia is up almost 50% this year before today's pull back. off the october low the s&p up 20%, tech up 30. i think this is more of a consolidation. i think on a short-term basis we'll see more out performance in the equal weight index which we're seeing today and that's likely to continue, a proxy for the average stock and seeing things as you mentioned financial stocks to do better, industrials at a new high as well. >> you're overweight, yet expecting that things could very well go down, at least for a little
data is food for thought from our steve liesman.is overweight large caps and tech and recently upgraded financials. keith learner joins us now. happy week, keith. so you're overweight large caps. what does that mean ahead of nvidia? how are you positioned? >> yeah. great to be with you, jon. we're overweight tech and, therefore, we're overweight large cap. that's the biggest part. last week we said that weexpect the tech sector to cool, so we like it longer term. that's where the earners...
0
0.0
Feb 21, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
you heard what steve liesman said and how he characterized them meaning as how folks are really more concerned with inflation risk than not. there was not a lot of clamor for a rate cut which most people were not expecting. jim grant was saying, hey, do not take the possibility of a rate hike off the table. work your main on all this? >> i remain focused on my view that the fed is focused on preventing inflation first. i've been saying for a long time and repetitively that the market continues to try to get ahead of the fed when the reality is that the fed is in no rush. i think the likelihood is that they will stay in higher than what it is priced in the possibility is out there. i think like mr. grant is probably not likely, but it is out there. so as all of us investors, we need to respect that and had we play the market accordingly? >> so you're basically in the grant camp which is that rates will stay higher for longer. what does that mean for equity investors who have counted -- most of them -- that rate cuts are coming sometime this year. maybe may. maybe june. whenever. >> ye
you heard what steve liesman said and how he characterized them meaning as how folks are really more concerned with inflation risk than not. there was not a lot of clamor for a rate cut which most people were not expecting. jim grant was saying, hey, do not take the possibility of a rate hike off the table. work your main on all this? >> i remain focused on my view that the fed is focused on preventing inflation first. i've been saying for a long time and repetitively that the market...
0
0.0
Feb 13, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
ha you, steve. steve liesman. >>> next hour the ceo of lazard right after the break.e continues. i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart! you always got your mind on the green. not you. you! your business bank account with quickbooks money now earns 5% apy. (♪♪) that's how you business differently. intuit quickbooks. it's time. yes, the time has come for a fresh approach to dog food. everyday more dog people are deciding it's time to quit the kibble and feed their dogs fresh food from the farmer's dog. made by vets and delivered right to your door precisely portioned for your dog's needs. it's an idea whose time has come. in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals e
ha you, steve. steve liesman. >>> next hour the ceo of lazard right after the break.e continues. i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart! you always got your mind on the green. not you. you! your business bank account with...
0
0.0
Feb 14, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
but one more bad inflation report, sara, i don't know. . >> thank you, steve. steve liesman.eport. our next guest said a june rate cut is possible but no one should prejudge. robert kaplan joins us now. how how would you, still inside the fed, look at a report like yesterday's. >> my first reaction would be not to overreact to one month. however, i would be on guard and vigilant that we need to see continued improvement in inflation. i don't want to see a resur gens a resurgence and i want two or three months of inflation data. you and i talked about before why i'm on guard is fiscal spending is very stimulative. inflation reduction act projects, infrastructure act projects, unspent arpa money. so i'd be focused on service sector inflation. i want to see that improve and some evidence it's going to get sustainably better. i'd need to see more information to see that. >> you have been more vocal on this point than anyone i know. it's interesting that the fed. i get they don't want to talk about fiscal policy but has been dis dismissive of the idea the fiscal impulse is boostin
but one more bad inflation report, sara, i don't know. . >> thank you, steve. steve liesman.eport. our next guest said a june rate cut is possible but no one should prejudge. robert kaplan joins us now. how how would you, still inside the fed, look at a report like yesterday's. >> my first reaction would be not to overreact to one month. however, i would be on guard and vigilant that we need to see continued improvement in inflation. i don't want to see a resur gens a resurgence and...
0
0.0
Feb 14, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
. >> ppi as steve liesman said after the hotter cpi. >> let's get to the judge. >>> welcome to "the halftime report." now we'll debate the road ahead with the investment committee, tell you about some moves they're making as well today. joining me for the hour, joe terranova, jenny harrington, steve weiss, jim lebenthal. we're trying to bounce from the day we had yesterday, watching the majors, the russell having a nice bounce. it got smoked. yields surged, they're backing off a bit. was yesterday a game changer for the rally? does it change the in a way to change from here? >> i'll first speak towards the entirety of 2024, no. i do think yesterday was critically important in breaking the strong, as i've called it, white hot momentum in the market. what is significant is that in the treasury market you now have the market which is aligning with the federal reserve in terms of there being three rate cuts on the year. scott, i said to you two weeks ago, you didn't call meout on it and you should have because the market rallied the minute i said it, i thought february would be a down month. and
. >> ppi as steve liesman said after the hotter cpi. >> let's get to the judge. >>> welcome to "the halftime report." now we'll debate the road ahead with the investment committee, tell you about some moves they're making as well today. joining me for the hour, joe terranova, jenny harrington, steve weiss, jim lebenthal. we're trying to bounce from the day we had yesterday, watching the majors, the russell having a nice bounce. it got smoked. yields surged,...
0
0.0
Feb 29, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
joining me now is james bryson, and our own economics reporter steve liesman is here, as well thank youh for being here. steve, as i customarily do, i'll start with you for the bigger picture. how important was this pce read to the overall picture for the fed and rates? >> well, it's something that they have already incorporated some of the markets already incorporated it. it was spot-on in terms of the economists taking the cpi, coming up with a good estimate on the pce, and it came in as expected, which was higher than expected, and it's a reason why the fed is being less aggressive about the idea of cutting interest rates at the same time, it's a number that many people think is a bit of an anomaly relative to the trend of inflation coming down i was very glad to see that jay had this call of may rate cuts, which was my call, and i know he think there is's more risk around it. but look, if you get it back on track for a couple more months before the may meeting, i don't think it's out of the question if you treat this and think about this as more of an anomaly than a trend, you can t
joining me now is james bryson, and our own economics reporter steve liesman is here, as well thank youh for being here. steve, as i customarily do, i'll start with you for the bigger picture. how important was this pce read to the overall picture for the fed and rates? >> well, it's something that they have already incorporated some of the markets already incorporated it. it was spot-on in terms of the economists taking the cpi, coming up with a good estimate on the pce, and it came in...
0
0.0
Feb 16, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman joins us with a rapid update. so where do we stand, steve? survey economists since the ppi, surprised to see how they changed their forecast for the fed's preferred inflation gauge, the pce comes out february 29th. on average the survey of seven forecasters sees boosting the outlook for core pce by a tenth to 0.4% doesn't sound like much but it is double the december rate. and then here is a bunch of the estimates heave we are. you can see pretty much 0.1 across the board, pantheon, citi, jpmorgan, goldman sachs and some you don't see here. the annualized three-month rate end up being right would rise by a percentage point to 2.4 would decline for the year over year because of bigger or hotter january '23 number drops out. it will give the fed pause is the bottom lionel. i want to show a new chart we've never shown before. what this does, it tells you the number of 25 basis point cuts now in the january 2025 contract. i don't know if that helps viewers envision where the market is, but you can see they were up as many as seven cuts built in t
steve liesman joins us with a rapid update. so where do we stand, steve? survey economists since the ppi, surprised to see how they changed their forecast for the fed's preferred inflation gauge, the pce comes out february 29th. on average the survey of seven forecasters sees boosting the outlook for core pce by a tenth to 0.4% doesn't sound like much but it is double the december rate. and then here is a bunch of the estimates heave we are. you can see pretty much 0.1 across the board,...
0
0.0
Feb 23, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman has details and can set up next week where we get a little bit more. >> yeah.terday when futures markets priced all of that exubr ber rance for fed easing and stocks have held on to the gains and added to them. ride the fed roller coaster here the exuberance in late november fed governor waller said if it fell they would have to cut rates when fed chair powell at the meeting acknowledged the fed discussed rate cuts at their meetings and markets took off helped but better inflation data and markets priced in seven rate cuts this year futures markets start taking back that easing amid strong payroll numbers, higher inflation data and a barrage of fed speak warning against bets on early cuts. at first the stock market rallied with the easing exuberance and then sold off when it looked like the fed would do less. stocks have started to go their separate ways around the middle of january they have embraced better economic growth and those better earnings that's been a big part of the turnaround here and the separation fourth quarter earnings growth estimated at 4.7%
steve liesman has details and can set up next week where we get a little bit more. >> yeah.terday when futures markets priced all of that exubr ber rance for fed easing and stocks have held on to the gains and added to them. ride the fed roller coaster here the exuberance in late november fed governor waller said if it fell they would have to cut rates when fed chair powell at the meeting acknowledged the fed discussed rate cuts at their meetings and markets took off helped but better...
0
0.0
Feb 20, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman, thank you very much. >>> so your next guest believes not only is the economy avoidingecession, but it may be getting stronger. as a result, inflation will remain a risk and rates could remain at higher longer. joining us now is the chief equity strategist, senior portfolio manager at m.a.i. capital management. chris, i want to talk about the fed. everybody was tripping over themselves to try to identify when or how many rate cuts there may be. i'm reading stuff now, there was some articles out this morning that maybe people are starting to talk about rate hikes once again because of what happened in january. where do you stand? >> you know, brian, good to be back with you. i say a couple ofthings. first of all, it's non-consensus to say that the economy might actually be getting stronger. but it does seem to go along with the current data. we're seeing job reports that are the best in a year. the market, which is, of course, a discounting mechanism, is up over 20% since october. average hourly earnings are starting to go up again. even though real negative stuff, like
steve liesman, thank you very much. >>> so your next guest believes not only is the economy avoidingecession, but it may be getting stronger. as a result, inflation will remain a risk and rates could remain at higher longer. joining us now is the chief equity strategist, senior portfolio manager at m.a.i. capital management. chris, i want to talk about the fed. everybody was tripping over themselves to try to identify when or how many rate cuts there may be. i'm reading stuff now,...
0
0.0
Feb 16, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now. he's got a look at both.becky. atlanta fed president rafael bostic saying it is unlikely the upside surprise in the january cpi, a change in the trend of generally weak inflation. but bostic added the fed needs more time to be sure inflation is headed back to the 2% target. he said it is soon going to be time for the fed to start talking about cutting rates, but doesn't expect the rate cuts to come until the fall. something having an influence on that, after the cpi surprise this week, investors on edge over the release of the producer price index, comes at 8:30, the wholesale inflation report gives us some insight in the price changes that underlie the consumer inflation that the fed watches and also feeds into the fed's preferred consumer inflation indicator, the pce. headline, of course, cpi, seen rising .2% higher than last month. both are really low and modest, but there are some concerns. the red sea shipping disruptions, say that ten times fast, could begin to show up in the index either this month or
senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now. he's got a look at both.becky. atlanta fed president rafael bostic saying it is unlikely the upside surprise in the january cpi, a change in the trend of generally weak inflation. but bostic added the fed needs more time to be sure inflation is headed back to the 2% target. he said it is soon going to be time for the fed to start talking about cutting rates, but doesn't expect the rate cuts to come until the fall. something having an...
0
0.0
Feb 12, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman joining us with more on the consumer. >> what do you know about hangovers, sully. you don't know much about that today? not today. the whole family got sick over the super bowl. >> sorry about that. after a strong holiday shopping season consumers took a break in january with the cnbc and the retail monitor and we used credit card data from affinity solutions and it registered a modest decline. here are the numbers, retail sales, ex auto and gas, down 0.2 versus 0.4 in december and a strong 0.7 in december, and core retail, that takes out restaurants a little bit better, pretty much flat versus 0.2 in december and the year over year was up a little bit 3.2 versus 3.4 and the january decline follows three strong months right in the heart of the holiday season and it could challenge some of the growth forecast out there over 3% for the quarter especially if the weakness is repeated in february. furniture and home furnishings, can't find its legs with what's going on in the real estate market down 1%. food service and drinking down 0.7 and could have been hurt by weat
liesman joining us with more on the consumer. >> what do you know about hangovers, sully. you don't know much about that today? not today. the whole family got sick over the super bowl. >> sorry about that. after a strong holiday shopping season consumers took a break in january with the cnbc and the retail monitor and we used credit card data from affinity solutions and it registered a modest decline. here are the numbers, retail sales, ex auto and gas, down 0.2 versus 0.4 in...
0
0.0
Feb 14, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman is here with more on no doubt the great debate on wall street. >> exactly, brian.re are two opposing scenarios out there that dominate this debate over that hotter than expected inflation number. the one held by i would say a majority of economists that i'm reading is that it was mostly a blip and inflation will resume that downward trend. you had one-time vehicle increases, but it will decline, and the pce coming february 29 will be cooler in part because it has a lower weighting for housing. austan goolsbee talked about this today, saying higher inflation for a few months is okay, it still means we can be back on the path to the 2% target. he added one should not judge the trend from one month's numbers and pointed to that difference between housing inflation and the cpi and market gauges that show rents falling. but there is, of course, the more worrisome scenario that needs to be considered. the easing of inflation is behind us, and that last mile from 3% to 2% is a tougher one and could require a harder landing. >> the fed may have to hold rates higher, stayin
steve liesman is here with more on no doubt the great debate on wall street. >> exactly, brian.re are two opposing scenarios out there that dominate this debate over that hotter than expected inflation number. the one held by i would say a majority of economists that i'm reading is that it was mostly a blip and inflation will resume that downward trend. you had one-time vehicle increases, but it will decline, and the pce coming february 29 will be cooler in part because it has a lower...
0
0.0
Feb 13, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
. >>> steve liesman, thank you.hank you. >>> when we come back, the senate passing a $95 billion aid package for ukraine, iaeansrl d taiwan. that bill now heads for its next hurdle. we will talk to house majority whip, tom emmer, when we come back. "squawk box" will be right back. all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab. we really don't want people to think of feeding food like ours is spoiling their dogs. good, real food is simple. it looks like food, it smells like food, it's what dogs are supposed to be eating. no living being should ever eat processed food for every single meal of their life. it's amazing to me how many people write in about their dogs changing for the better. the farmer's dog is just our way to help people take care of them. ♪ >>> the senate passing a $95 billion foreign aid package for ukraine, israel and taiwan. the bill will now h
. >>> steve liesman, thank you.hank you. >>> when we come back, the senate passing a $95 billion aid package for ukraine, iaeansrl d taiwan. that bill now heads for its next hurdle. we will talk to house majority whip, tom emmer, when we come back. "squawk box" will be right back. all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade...
0
0.0
Feb 21, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
let's get to steve liesman to wrap it all up for us. >> hey, tyler. yeah, minutes to that fed january meeting show most officials still highly concerned about inflation, worried about cutting rates too quickly. and this was weeks before the january cbi data emphasizing the risk of cutting rates too quickly and concern that inflation progress could stall. and also, seeing an upside inflation risk around every corner, in strong demand, in loosening financial conditions, and even in geopolitical risk. only a handful of committee members, if that, showed much concern at all with the recession, and that brought some criticism from wall street oxford economics writing, the odds of a policy error appear higher following the minutes there is significant disinflation in the pipeline if the central bank waits for clear signs that the labor market or the broader economy is deteriorating, it will be behind the curve. the chance of a may rate cut now trading at the lowest probability of the year, just 30%, with more confident bets now centered on june and july for
let's get to steve liesman to wrap it all up for us. >> hey, tyler. yeah, minutes to that fed january meeting show most officials still highly concerned about inflation, worried about cutting rates too quickly. and this was weeks before the january cbi data emphasizing the risk of cutting rates too quickly and concern that inflation progress could stall. and also, seeing an upside inflation risk around every corner, in strong demand, in loosening financial conditions, and even in...
0
0.0
Feb 21, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
senior economics reporter steve liesman joining us right now, though, with a preview what are you thinking? >> we're looking for clues at just how patient the fed is willing to be in cutting rates there is a debate out there about whether it has taken the wrong signal from that january bump up in inflation in fact, ian shepherdson writes we think the fed is making a mistake of wanting near certainty before acting but the inherent long lags in monetary policy makes that risky. since the numbers and the powell pushback at the last fed meeting, the expected number of quarter point rate cuts has fallen from nearly 7 to about 4 now. futures are pricing in fewer and also later rate cuts the probability of a may cut declined from what was a near certainty to just around 37% now. you need to get to july to get to that certainty. but a number of economists see that january inflation is related to one off items, particularly price hikes that happened at the beginning of the year but aren't picked up by seasonal adjustment there is a call out there for fed chair powell to be a little less data depend
senior economics reporter steve liesman joining us right now, though, with a preview what are you thinking? >> we're looking for clues at just how patient the fed is willing to be in cutting rates there is a debate out there about whether it has taken the wrong signal from that january bump up in inflation in fact, ian shepherdson writes we think the fed is making a mistake of wanting near certainty before acting but the inherent long lags in monetary policy makes that risky. since the...
0
0.0
Feb 22, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now with more we saw him yesterday morning in d.c.ow, these minutes show as you say, andrew, most officials were more concerned about inflation than they were with recession and they were more concerned about cutting rates too quickly. and what is important about these minutes is it comes even before that upside inflation surprise reported by the government several weeks later here is a quick rundown. they emphasized the risks of cutting rates too quickly. there were concerns that inflation progress could stall and they were worried about upside inflation risks from things like stronger consumer demand, loosening financial conditions and geopolitical risks that could hurt the progress we had on the supply side only a handful, maybe not even that, of committee members showed much concern at all for the recession risk that may be out there if they stay too tight for too long if there is any disagreement, it is hard to find and some on wall street don't think the fed has taken the risk of a downturn seriously enough, after the minutes. t
senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now with more we saw him yesterday morning in d.c.ow, these minutes show as you say, andrew, most officials were more concerned about inflation than they were with recession and they were more concerned about cutting rates too quickly. and what is important about these minutes is it comes even before that upside inflation surprise reported by the government several weeks later here is a quick rundown. they emphasized the risks of cutting rates...
0
0.0
Feb 14, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
joining us now with more, senior economics reporter steve liesman., that's just how long we stay where we are? >> so far. let me double-check that, joe. but i was just looking that up. and there was 0% chance, they had not gotten there yet. >> i meant you, in your -- in your big brain, the big brain on steve, and in your brain is there a 0% chance that we're not done hiking? >> well, let's just be clear, it only looks big because it is not covered by anything. if i put a hat on -- >> the pulp fiction, the big brain on bread, when he gets the mcdonald's question right. i said steve instead. >> i wouldn't -- i wouldn't rule it out, but i think we're a long way from there, joe. >> less than 10%? >> that's really the story. yeah, less than 5% i would say right now. >> less than 5%, okay. >> the fed sees itself as being very restrictive and having a lot of still tightening in train. and that's part of the story this morning, joe, because the question is how much is coming and whether or not the fed would need to stay higher for longer here. but what we ha
joining us now with more, senior economics reporter steve liesman., that's just how long we stay where we are? >> so far. let me double-check that, joe. but i was just looking that up. and there was 0% chance, they had not gotten there yet. >> i meant you, in your -- in your big brain, the big brain on steve, and in your brain is there a 0% chance that we're not done hiking? >> well, let's just be clear, it only looks big because it is not covered by anything. if i put a hat...
0
0.0
Feb 22, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
we have fresh fed speak crossing the tape let's get to steve liesman with that steve?fferson saying it will likely be appropriate to reduce the monetary policy restraint, quote, later this year not a lot of specificity, but later this year is what he says. he says the policy rate currently is well into restrictive territory. repeat data showed there is a path to restoring price stability and lowering inflation without a big increase in unemployment on the labor market, he said it remains tight but there is evidence of cooling in labor demand inflation has made clear progress but points to what he calls a disappointing january cpi which highlights the process of reducing inflation is likely to be bumpy and sees core service prices moderating as the labor market cools and offers a staff estimate of the number coming out a week from friday which is that the pce will fall to 2.4% from 2.6 it does point out risks including the idea that consumer spending could prove more resilient and employment could weaken more than expected and talks about geopolitical risks remaining el
we have fresh fed speak crossing the tape let's get to steve liesman with that steve?fferson saying it will likely be appropriate to reduce the monetary policy restraint, quote, later this year not a lot of specificity, but later this year is what he says. he says the policy rate currently is well into restrictive territory. repeat data showed there is a path to restoring price stability and lowering inflation without a big increase in unemployment on the labor market, he said it remains tight...
0
0.0
Feb 29, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman.ortant things are here. >> quickly on the pce number. you have this still goods deflation. goods down 0.2. services up 0.6. and so this contradiction in the economy goes on. you have a surge in food prices, up 0.5%. i think we do need to give a tip to economists who seem to do at least one thing well. which is their ability to take the cpi number and ppi number translate that into a very good forecast for the pce. seem to have nailed that. i was always more interested going into this number, because i thought that the market had probably already knew what this number was. had a good forecast for it. priced it in. the income and spending numbers. very interesting to me that income was up 1%, and spending was up only 0.2%. savings rate up just a little bit. but it was an interesting time maybe you can tell the story here that consumers seem to have decided to take a break. replenish savings a little bit. seemed to have a robust holiday spending season. so january was a pause, and i guess
liesman.ortant things are here. >> quickly on the pce number. you have this still goods deflation. goods down 0.2. services up 0.6. and so this contradiction in the economy goes on. you have a surge in food prices, up 0.5%. i think we do need to give a tip to economists who seem to do at least one thing well. which is their ability to take the cpi number and ppi number translate that into a very good forecast for the pce. seem to have nailed that. i was always more interested going into...
0
0.0
Feb 28, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
and harriet of foundation research fellow and our own steve liesman. steve, let you go first.e things rick just told us about that would cause traders to sit up and dake notice? anything? >> first of all, everything rick says is always interesting to me. >> right, right. how about the -- consumption thing? >> here the grading of the bonds and in the afternoon interesting. i'm a rick fan on all that. consumption going up. i don't think the fed will be that disturbed by a tick higher in the price index. joe, we're in a really, really, what's the right toward say it, sort of boring holding pattern here, joe. when i look at everybody's expectations for the fed, it's all aligned. it's like we have kum ba yah on this. i've got an year-end funds rate january '25 contact at 453. fed forecasting 4.6. the main economists at 4.6. awe all aligned on that. gdp number. forget fourth quarter, done pt 32 above potential. first quarter coming in. i got q2, 2% somewhere a little potential for the low end. i've got 3-plus on high end, and we are waiting for the data to break in a way that would
and harriet of foundation research fellow and our own steve liesman. steve, let you go first.e things rick just told us about that would cause traders to sit up and dake notice? anything? >> first of all, everything rick says is always interesting to me. >> right, right. how about the -- consumption thing? >> here the grading of the bonds and in the afternoon interesting. i'm a rick fan on all that. consumption going up. i don't think the fed will be that disturbed by a tick...
0
0.0
Feb 5, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
i'll stick with tim rose at the "journal" or steve liesman, please. not -- or sara eisen. offense, scott. great journalist. not his area of expertise. it's our area of expertise. >> i think at the end, you turn to each other if you're watching with someone and you say, that was nothing new, let's do back to what we were watching. anyone who's selling on this is, like, reacting to news that came out before the employment number. the employment number was significant. >> it was. >> but interest rates, you know, look, we've got the -- >> quite significant. >> we have everything going back to 4%, but one of the things -- it doesn't hurt any -- housing has not been hurt at all. >> well -- >> no. c kashkari has a piece out today suggesting the neutral rate is higher than we think. >> that's the end of the soft-hard. the neutral rate is high. it's working, and we have an economy that's growing with a little bit of inflation. now that we saw the number on friday. you go back and do the interview, you would have to say, well, wait a second, we have wage growth. is that sustainable?
i'll stick with tim rose at the "journal" or steve liesman, please. not -- or sara eisen. offense, scott. great journalist. not his area of expertise. it's our area of expertise. >> i think at the end, you turn to each other if you're watching with someone and you say, that was nothing new, let's do back to what we were watching. anyone who's selling on this is, like, reacting to news that came out before the employment number. the employment number was significant. >> it...
0
0.0
Feb 21, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman talking about this on "squawk box" this morning, just about this idea of whether the fed needso cut kind of preemptively to make sure that some of these cracks that are kind of percolating under the surface don't come to fruition and push us into a recession, and others say, no, you need to follow the data. you need to make sure that you are, you know, not being too easing in order to make sure that inflation is officially stamped out. based on your vantage point, where are you on that debate >> our team, the research team, which is nurmg onmber one in th world, has three cuts last year, four cuts next year. that's this debate about whether the data that just came out shows the economy and the inflation is coming down, but not quite at the rate people had hoped. so, they've got to have a clear path the fed's not being mysterious they're saying, we have to have a clear path down to the 2% target we have to be well on the way before we cut. now, the error potential is not to bring rates down and normalize soon enough, just like it was not to raise rates fast enough, and you can h
liesman talking about this on "squawk box" this morning, just about this idea of whether the fed needso cut kind of preemptively to make sure that some of these cracks that are kind of percolating under the surface don't come to fruition and push us into a recession, and others say, no, you need to follow the data. you need to make sure that you are, you know, not being too easing in order to make sure that inflation is officially stamped out. based on your vantage point, where are...
0
0.0
Feb 26, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman joins with us that good news.his is interesting, andrew, forecasters at the neinabe backing off their outlook for low potential growth. higher growth, less inflation, and still low unemployment. here are the numbers compared to december. 22 is the gdp. that's up almost a full percentage point. down just a bit from the 2.5% actual in 2023. down 0.1 from the previous forecast and below the 2023 number, unemployment 39, that's 3/10 lower than they thought. it seems that the average forecaster has abandoned what was the prevailing idea and it was proven wrong in the past several years, that the economy needed to run below potential. unemployment would have to rise sharply in order to bring down inflation. inflation came down despite growth and low unemployment. if that sounds like a soft landing, it's because it is. 3/4 of respondents see the economy heading for a soft landing. the survey sees the fed lowering the funds rate to 4.6 this year in line with the fed's own forecast and pretty much where the market is now,
steve liesman joins with us that good news.his is interesting, andrew, forecasters at the neinabe backing off their outlook for low potential growth. higher growth, less inflation, and still low unemployment. here are the numbers compared to december. 22 is the gdp. that's up almost a full percentage point. down just a bit from the 2.5% actual in 2023. down 0.1 from the previous forecast and below the 2023 number, unemployment 39, that's 3/10 lower than they thought. it seems that the average...
0
0.0
Feb 15, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
liesman is standing by.. wonderful job on that. seeing a lot of negatives. look down the line and i see some negatives that are, some smaller, some bigger. standing out to me is this 4.1% decline in building materials. and garden equipment. not sure why that is. 3% decline. month to month. sometimes year to year numbers. huge decline on miscellaneous store retailers. motor vehicles down 1.7 was expected. gas station sales down 1.7. that's expected. but it's the other stuff. electronics down. one ridiculous bright spot, furniture and home furnishings up 1.5%. contracting is going on around the world, becky. sure you're aware what's happening in japan and the uk. one of the questions we want to think about is this notion of, is the concept of fortress usa still a good one? are we going to be affected what's going on overseas in gdp and economic contraction? this will cause u.s. forecasters to reduce their outlook for the first quarter gdp. it had been saying between 2% and 3%. atlanta fed at high side, north o
liesman is standing by.. wonderful job on that. seeing a lot of negatives. look down the line and i see some negatives that are, some smaller, some bigger. standing out to me is this 4.1% decline in building materials. and garden equipment. not sure why that is. 3% decline. month to month. sometimes year to year numbers. huge decline on miscellaneous store retailers. motor vehicles down 1.7 was expected. gas station sales down 1.7. that's expected. but it's the other stuff. electronics down....
0
0.0
Feb 27, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
i want to get straight over to steve liesman who's looking at those numbers. >> the headline on this one, andrew, is a boeing headline. they had apparently zero orders in the month of january after a strong december. that's the headline number, which is influenced greatly by non-defense civilian aircraft, down 59%. but also, you saw autos down as well. my understanding was that vehicle assembly actually increased in the month, so not clear what's in here. this is a very mixed report. rick was right to point out the shipments number on the capital goods, which feeds into gdp. that's going to help a little bit. and he's right again that the new orders number suggests a slowing in capital expenditures, very important for the health of the economy. computers did well inside the support, just about everything else did badly. unclear what's happening at the, i guess you would call it at the c-suite level, andrew. that's something that we'll have to keep investing in here, which is, what is the view right now of companies when it comes to investing, investing in capi
i want to get straight over to steve liesman who's looking at those numbers. >> the headline on this one, andrew, is a boeing headline. they had apparently zero orders in the month of january after a strong december. that's the headline number, which is influenced greatly by non-defense civilian aircraft, down 59%. but also, you saw autos down as well. my understanding was that vehicle assembly actually increased in the month, so not clear what's in here. this is a very mixed report. rick...
0
0.0
Feb 12, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
steve liesman has the numbers. hi, steve. >> good morning, becky. yeah.ttle break in january. cnbc nrf retail monitor using credit card date ta from affinity solutions registered decline. retail and gas, down 0.2% after 0.4 gain in december and 0.7 in november. year over year declined 2.3 versus 3.1 in december. restaurants down a little 04. see why in a second. 0.2% in december. year over year increasing. right in the center of the holiday season was good. could challenge, we don't know. gdp forecast this quarter around 3%. especially if the weakness is repeated in february. how we got to the negative number. gas stations sales falling minus 1.3%. i'll tell you sometimes you get a decline one no in gas sales and discretionary stuff goes up the next month. right now furniture and home furnishes down 1%. decline in food service and places that could have been hurt by bad weather this month. clothing and accessories, above, retailers, internet, up, and electronics appliances a good month. up 1.3%. see how the cnbc retail monitor tracked with government data
steve liesman has the numbers. hi, steve. >> good morning, becky. yeah.ttle break in january. cnbc nrf retail monitor using credit card date ta from affinity solutions registered decline. retail and gas, down 0.2% after 0.4 gain in december and 0.7 in november. year over year declined 2.3 versus 3.1 in december. restaurants down a little 04. see why in a second. 0.2% in december. year over year increasing. right in the center of the holiday season was good. could challenge, we don't know....
0
0.0
Feb 23, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now with the roller coaster of the markets.steve >> reporter: good morning, joe we marked a milestone yesterday when futures markets fully priced out the fed easing that launched the fede rally and the stock market held on to the gains. look at the fed coaster. the left part of the jscreen ana and waller said it will have to cut rates. powell then acknowledged the rate cuts at the meeting and that was held by the good december inflation data. it went the other way with the future markets took back the easing with the strong payroll and higher inflation data in january and then the barrage of fed speak warning against the bets on early cuts if you zoom in on the right side, you can see the taking back of the easing the stock market rally, the left part of the screen, along with the easing, sold off with the fed doing less then stocks started going the sp separate ways in january and embracing better economic growth and better earnings. that's been a big part of what is going on right now. fourth quarter earnings at 4.7% in janua
senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us now with the roller coaster of the markets.steve >> reporter: good morning, joe we marked a milestone yesterday when futures markets fully priced out the fed easing that launched the fede rally and the stock market held on to the gains. look at the fed coaster. the left part of the jscreen ana and waller said it will have to cut rates. powell then acknowledged the rate cuts at the meeting and that was held by the good december inflation...
0
0.0
Feb 5, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
. >> and steve liesman made the point, the fed's own fault. a communication problem.the dot plots fete dod plots anticipating six cuts. why does the fed continue to put out the dot plots if it just creates confusion in the market? >> that's a good question. i don't think they necessarily think it creates confusion. it gives them a chance every other meeting to really talk about something they really talk about. which is what is our expectation? the challenge is to understand those dot plots you've got to understand a lot of technicality and what assumptions people are making. also understand that it's not a formal forecast. there are a lot of caveats around it. i think it is well-intentioned, a desire to say this is what might happen. but on the other hand, markets don't take the conditional -- they expect it to actually be a forecast and a promise. it's not that. so i think the challenge is just being clear about what these dot plots are and what they're not. and that's always a little tricky. >> roger, in all the times on. it's been -- we've been on this road and on
. >> and steve liesman made the point, the fed's own fault. a communication problem.the dot plots fete dod plots anticipating six cuts. why does the fed continue to put out the dot plots if it just creates confusion in the market? >> that's a good question. i don't think they necessarily think it creates confusion. it gives them a chance every other meeting to really talk about something they really talk about. which is what is our expectation? the challenge is to understand those...
0
0.0
Feb 20, 2024
02/24
by
CNBC
tv
eye 0
favorite 0
quote 0
. >> yeah, rising consumer credit delinquencies is a major risk to a soft landing, and steve liesman could be stabilizing. >> i think he's a black card carrier -- >> i am a platinum guy, andrew. i would love to hear the math on it. i don't use the airport lounges, but maybe i should. guys, some signs of stress earlier this year in consumer credit brought on by the higher interest rates. the latest data we are looking at from equifax suggests the credit cycle could have topped out, and the duh elinquency cyc it's unchanged over the past three months at a level just a bit above or below, depends on the cat gore kegory, the long r average. people were right earlier this year to worry, but that's no longer the case because the data has stabilized. look at autos. they were unchanged through the final quarter of 2023, and the same is true for real estate loans and bank cards, and that is at the 2009 level during the great financial crisis. and household balance sheets remain healthy. here's the irony. the silicon valley bank collapse could be responsible for the better data today. banks ac
. >> yeah, rising consumer credit delinquencies is a major risk to a soft landing, and steve liesman could be stabilizing. >> i think he's a black card carrier -- >> i am a platinum guy, andrew. i would love to hear the math on it. i don't use the airport lounges, but maybe i should. guys, some signs of stress earlier this year in consumer credit brought on by the higher interest rates. the latest data we are looking at from equifax suggests the credit cycle could have topped...