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let's get straight to steve liesman with what to watch for. steve?yeah, as we await this decision, three reports this morning coming in maybe giving the fed greater confidence that inflation is headed down toward 2s%. along with lower and expected unit labor costs, better adp wage data. it's been coming down for job stayers and job changers, combining with two good months of inflation data. put that together and ask, well, why isn't the fed coming now if the data is moving in the right direction? there's a few reasons perhaps for that. one is, once burned, twice shy. the fed has seen these inflation numbers tick down and then back up. overall, we're about a half point from target. not all members indicated a readiness to cut right now. and there's no need for a surprise, because the economy is doing reasonably well. finally, rate cuts are seen as a process, meaning once the fed gets going, it will do more than one, so it has to be really confident, unless it's in the uncomfortable position of having to reverse course. 100% chance of a september cut a
let's get straight to steve liesman with what to watch for. steve?yeah, as we await this decision, three reports this morning coming in maybe giving the fed greater confidence that inflation is headed down toward 2s%. along with lower and expected unit labor costs, better adp wage data. it's been coming down for job stayers and job changers, combining with two good months of inflation data. put that together and ask, well, why isn't the fed coming now if the data is moving in the right...
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Jul 31, 2024
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. >> we'll come back to you on that 50/50 proposition, but now to steve liesman for the fed's decision on interest rates. steve liesman. >> the federal reserve left rates unchanged, but changed its statement in a way that meay la the groundwork for future rate cuts. it doesn't necessarily guarantee it. the fed said the risk to its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance, rather than just have moved into better balance. and the committee says that it's attenda attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate, not just highly attentive to the inflation risks, which it had been saying for quite some time. they did continue to say that there won't be cuts or don't believe that there should be cuts until they have greater confidence of inflation moving towards a 2% goal, but they did talk about jobs and inflation. they said job gains have moderated. that's a downgrade from remains strong in the prior statement. they noted the rise in the unemployment rate, but added that it remains low. they had previously just said that the unemployment rate remains know. the sta
. >> we'll come back to you on that 50/50 proposition, but now to steve liesman for the fed's decision on interest rates. steve liesman. >> the federal reserve left rates unchanged, but changed its statement in a way that meay la the groundwork for future rate cuts. it doesn't necessarily guarantee it. the fed said the risk to its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance, rather than just have moved into better balance. and the committee says that it's...
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Jul 8, 2024
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steve liesman, cnbc business news. >>> now to m&a news.dance and paramount agreed to a merger. shari redstone will agree to sell her stake. paramount has lost almost $17 billion in market value since 2019. >>> boeing says it has agreed in principle to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge tied to two deadly 737 max crashes. the deal with the doj, which still needs the approval of the federal judge, will see the company pay a fine of almost $250 million. this is a massive, i suppose, deal for boeing in a sense that they've now admitted to something. of course, getting a fine. many will feel $250 million is getting off almost scot free. >> the loss of face, to an extent, is meant be compensated with the slightly lighter offer here which is what is on the table of $250 million which is what some of the plaintiffs were seeking in the order of $25 billion in terms of a fine. huge gap in terms of the penalty here. there will be some heat on boeing. that is through compliance officers who will be watching the company for three years.
steve liesman, cnbc business news. >>> now to m&a news.dance and paramount agreed to a merger. shari redstone will agree to sell her stake. paramount has lost almost $17 billion in market value since 2019. >>> boeing says it has agreed in principle to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge tied to two deadly 737 max crashes. the deal with the doj, which still needs the approval of the federal judge, will see the company pay a fine of almost $250 million. this...
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Jul 22, 2024
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for more, let's bring in steve liesman.h his term if elected. >> reporter: let me add to what you quoted trump saying. he would let powell finish his term if he thought he was doing a good job. look, i think presidents have complicated relationships with the federal reserve and chairs as an example of that during the trump presidency. for a while there, he followed a normal process of finding a federal reserve nominees and abandoned it and went on his own. he spent a lot of time criticizing fed chair powell. as you said, frank, this is an about face. as for harris, i believe she would follow the same sort of general operating process of the biden administration which is very much a hands off. he has not criticized powell despite the high interest rates. that comes, frank, because the federal reserve and the body politic were united in the concept of we have to fight inflation and that's the most important pressing issue and most important issue in the polls and the economy at the time. now, with inflation coming off and the
for more, let's bring in steve liesman.h his term if elected. >> reporter: let me add to what you quoted trump saying. he would let powell finish his term if he thought he was doing a good job. look, i think presidents have complicated relationships with the federal reserve and chairs as an example of that during the trump presidency. for a while there, he followed a normal process of finding a federal reserve nominees and abandoned it and went on his own. he spent a lot of time...
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Jul 5, 2024
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for those flags, let's get to steve liesman. >> it was a strong jobs report.these trends continue, though, it's going to give fed officials something to think about when it comes to monetary policy. the numbers now, 206,000, revisions were down by 111,000 the prior two months combined, and that 4.1% unemployment rate, a tick up. average hourly 3.9%. pretty good news, heading back to a level the fed might consider to be congruent with 2% inflation. where the jobs were, government, 70,000. that was government. federal and local. most of that in local. health care, a perennial supplier of jobs to the economy these days. goods producing all of that was production. but leisure and hospitality, up just 7,000. that's a place we have gotten a lot of jobs from. maybe they have topped out there. and temporary help, sometimes a harbinger of things to come, minus 49,000. slowing private sector, down 146,000. it's been weak two of the past three months. perhaps more weakness in government spending and hiring drops as expected. the feds fund market continued to put a low pr
for those flags, let's get to steve liesman. >> it was a strong jobs report.these trends continue, though, it's going to give fed officials something to think about when it comes to monetary policy. the numbers now, 206,000, revisions were down by 111,000 the prior two months combined, and that 4.1% unemployment rate, a tick up. average hourly 3.9%. pretty good news, heading back to a level the fed might consider to be congruent with 2% inflation. where the jobs were, government, 70,000....
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Jul 1, 2024
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our steve liesman and kathy boostjancic. >>> president macron's controversial call for a snap election appears to be backfiring on his centrist party. our seema modi has the details and for investors. >> the financial markets are getting relief after showing far-right leader marine le pen winning and off of the best levels of the day and the euro hitting 107 against the dollar. more importantly the premium that investors demand to hold french debt, that has come down though just slightly. it is still elevated and jefferies european team writes that markets are still particularly worried about the fiscal implications about a far-right win and how le pen's party will highlight france's deficit which came in at 5.5% last year and its debt picture currently at 111% of gdp. le pen has pledged to vote down clean energy policy and that's starting to be priced into the market. we saw construction and energy stocks higher on the day including votalia. including the automotive names. those stocks also ending higher on the day. they are betting that the euro will trade at 108 against the dollar b
our steve liesman and kathy boostjancic. >>> president macron's controversial call for a snap election appears to be backfiring on his centrist party. our seema modi has the details and for investors. >> the financial markets are getting relief after showing far-right leader marine le pen winning and off of the best levels of the day and the euro hitting 107 against the dollar. more importantly the premium that investors demand to hold french debt, that has come down though just...
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Jul 25, 2024
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senior economics reporter steve liesman joinstous break it all down. steve? >> hey, kelly, good amp. second quarter gdp surprising to the upside. all while consumers seem to be hanging in there, and business spending looks to be an unheralded economic bright spot. here's the data. second quarter gdp, 2.8% above expectations, higher than the 1.4 in the prior quarter, but not as great. consumer spending, that's a healthy number, up from the lackluster first quarter. business spending, 5.2%. that's up three quarters in a row. pce inflation, down and down big from the 3.4% in the first quarter. now, while the economy and the underlying fundamentals look healthy, i don't think that the fed is going to get too concerned about the growth acceleration. a big part of this upside and surprise was an inventory swing that made q1 look worse but added 0.8 percentage points to q2 gdp. while the single quarter number shows the economy speeding up, better way to look at it, the two-quarter average shows a slowdown from that rapid growth where we closed out in 2023. the bette
senior economics reporter steve liesman joinstous break it all down. steve? >> hey, kelly, good amp. second quarter gdp surprising to the upside. all while consumers seem to be hanging in there, and business spending looks to be an unheralded economic bright spot. here's the data. second quarter gdp, 2.8% above expectations, higher than the 1.4 in the prior quarter, but not as great. consumer spending, that's a healthy number, up from the lackluster first quarter. business spending, 5.2%....
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Jul 29, 2024
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steve liesman. >>> let's get the street's take ahead of the fed.avid rosenberg, president of rosenberg research. give me your take. again, do you think the fed, david, should cut, even though, of course, as steve said, they're not going to? >> well, i think that alan blinder was right if the journal "today." i think the fed should go. it may be too much of a mea culpa for them to do it as soon as wednesday. eye so i think at the minimum they'll set the table for a september move and strengthened further by what powell is going to say at jackson hole. i'll tell you the truth, i don't think you can rule it out entirely. it's not my base case scenario. the odds are higher than the minuscule probabilities that markets have priced in right now. >> and why do you believe that the economy, you know, deserves or is at least in need of, perhaps, a cut sooner than september? >> well, i think that what's happening here is that what powell was talking a couple months ago, which he abandoned, which was the earlier inflation hiccup was idiosyncratic and refined
steve liesman. >>> let's get the street's take ahead of the fed.avid rosenberg, president of rosenberg research. give me your take. again, do you think the fed, david, should cut, even though, of course, as steve said, they're not going to? >> well, i think that alan blinder was right if the journal "today." i think the fed should go. it may be too much of a mea culpa for them to do it as soon as wednesday. eye so i think at the minimum they'll set the table for a...
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let's bring in steve liesman with more. steve?hey, melissa, i'm looking at that 403 on the ten-year. i didn't realize it fell that low. the fed holding steady, 5.25 to 5.5. statements showed that the economy moved to a place where they could cut interest rates and jay powell said explicitly that a september rate cut was on the table if the inflation rate continued to decline or remain the same. >> if we were to see, for example, inflation moving down quickly, or more or less in line with expectations, growth remains, let's say, reasonably strong, and the labor market remains, you know, consistent with its current condition, then i would think that a rate cut could be on the table at the september meeting. >> powell acknowledged some policy makers, hey, they wanted to cut today, but that was not the view of the majority. in the end, all agreed with the statement that noted there were more balanced risks out there. they were attentive to risk to both sides of the mandate. they, of course, saw better progress towards that 2% target,
let's bring in steve liesman with more. steve?hey, melissa, i'm looking at that 403 on the ten-year. i didn't realize it fell that low. the fed holding steady, 5.25 to 5.5. statements showed that the economy moved to a place where they could cut interest rates and jay powell said explicitly that a september rate cut was on the table if the inflation rate continued to decline or remain the same. >> if we were to see, for example, inflation moving down quickly, or more or less in line with...
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Jul 9, 2024
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greg is here, with our very own steve liesman. gentlemen, good to see you.ve, i'm pretty clear opening the door to a september cut here? is july still in the unlikely camp? >> yeah, i would say in the unlikely camp, and making some let's say rhetorical progress towards the possibility of a september cut. i don't think he committed, but he did sort of go maybe a couple steps further than he went last week in portugal, talking about the, you know, significantly less tight labor market, saying the likelihood of the next move is a loosening but not committing to a timing and talking about considerable cooling to the labor market and emphasizing the dual risk that they have. sort of joining along with some of the more dovish members of the fed who have spoken, kelly, who said you know what? there's an emerging need to spend more time thinking about the second part of the mandate. that is the employment part of the mandate. so he added a few adjectives during the q and a, but not much in terms of when you look at how fed funds move, really they took it a little bi
greg is here, with our very own steve liesman. gentlemen, good to see you.ve, i'm pretty clear opening the door to a september cut here? is july still in the unlikely camp? >> yeah, i would say in the unlikely camp, and making some let's say rhetorical progress towards the possibility of a september cut. i don't think he committed, but he did sort of go maybe a couple steps further than he went last week in portugal, talking about the, you know, significantly less tight labor market,...
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steve liesman there.ck of that jobs report. we've just paired some of the gains actually for u.s. indices kind of flat is speak. and let's bring in jpmorgan strategist david kelly. great to have you with us. what's your take on that move we've seen in the two-year? do you think it's a bit ahead of the skis in terms of how many cuts we might get? >> not really. i mean i do accept the point that on a friday after the fourth of july don't necessarily trust what's going on in terms of trading. but overall, we think that things are setting up for two cuts this year. one in september, one in december. what we're seeing is the economy is cooling, but it's cooling slowly. that's very much the theme in this jobs report. i sort of echo what steve was saying about it. i think it's significant they downgraded payroll and job growth by 111,000 by the prior two months and drop in temporary workers. these are signs the economy is decelerating here. and we're also seeing signs, you know, despite a tight labor market, it'
steve liesman there.ck of that jobs report. we've just paired some of the gains actually for u.s. indices kind of flat is speak. and let's bring in jpmorgan strategist david kelly. great to have you with us. what's your take on that move we've seen in the two-year? do you think it's a bit ahead of the skis in terms of how many cuts we might get? >> not really. i mean i do accept the point that on a friday after the fourth of july don't necessarily trust what's going on in terms of...
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steve liesman is here. welcome back, by the way. >> thank you. >> a lot has been going on. you've been digging into her record, and we should welcome in ron, the chairman and ceo of steeple financial. great to have you here, as well. steve, just kick us off here. >> just totie in what emily was doing, what kamala harris might or might not be able to do depends on what kind of congress she gets. meanwhile, kamala harris, the democratic front runner, launching her campaign yesterday in milwaukee. drawing from themes from both the biden administration and her more liberal past as a senator. >> building up the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency. because here's the thing we all hear, when our middle class is strong, america is strong. >> so that's straight biden talk, but she called for affordable health care, affordable child care and paid family leave. with only a modest economic record, it's left few foot prints in the sand. supporters and critics are using the past to spin the economic future of a harris presidency. supporters say this -- >> critics say --
steve liesman is here. welcome back, by the way. >> thank you. >> a lot has been going on. you've been digging into her record, and we should welcome in ron, the chairman and ceo of steeple financial. great to have you here, as well. steve, just kick us off here. >> just totie in what emily was doing, what kamala harris might or might not be able to do depends on what kind of congress she gets. meanwhile, kamala harris, the democratic front runner, launching her campaign...
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Jul 10, 2024
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steve liesman after hearing the testimony before senate banking yesterday suggested he took an extra sort of dovish step. i feel like today he only added to that and maybe put the other foot in front of the other one. >> no, i'm agreeing with you entirely. to steph's point, there are a couple of banks that have three rate cuts, most are at two, some are at one. i think in terms of the forecasting community, economics community, everybody sort of thought that the economy and inflation would be on this path to start permitting them to cut rates whether it was september, december, two, three, one obviously is the great debate, but i think he took the -- i would agree he took the extra step to sort of tell the market we're almost there. i think if you get one or two more reports, another weakening in the labor market, so to speak, maybe claims ticking up to 240, 250, inflation moving down into the lower 2.5s versus upper 2.5s, i don't think they wouldn't feel comfortable starting to cut rates. >> jason, i'll give you the last word on the conversation we're having. wrap it up for us. >> y
steve liesman after hearing the testimony before senate banking yesterday suggested he took an extra sort of dovish step. i feel like today he only added to that and maybe put the other foot in front of the other one. >> no, i'm agreeing with you entirely. to steph's point, there are a couple of banks that have three rate cuts, most are at two, some are at one. i think in terms of the forecasting community, economics community, everybody sort of thought that the economy and inflation...
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joining me now is mark zanldy, chief economist, and steve liesman with us, as well. mark, i'm so glad the dow is up 800 points right now, because this is exactly the argument that burnstein and the hawks would say why the fed should be careful about cutting rates here if the economy is strong enough, maybe it's handling rates where they are just fine. >> well, i have a different interpretation, kelly. the market's up because they think the fed's going to cut rates. i think as you pointed out, 100% probability of a rate cut in september and today's data just puts that into cement. so i think investors are cheered by the reality that here we are, finally the fed's going to start cutting interest rates. if i were king for the day, i would have done it earlier. but september is going to be just fine. >> so let's back up for a second and talk about that core read we got this morning. there were some analysts saying 0.2 on thecore, that's not good enough. and maybe that could be one reason to say are we so sure this rally is because of rate cuts that were basically fully p
joining me now is mark zanldy, chief economist, and steve liesman with us, as well. mark, i'm so glad the dow is up 800 points right now, because this is exactly the argument that burnstein and the hawks would say why the fed should be careful about cutting rates here if the economy is strong enough, maybe it's handling rates where they are just fine. >> well, i have a different interpretation, kelly. the market's up because they think the fed's going to cut rates. i think as you pointed...
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Jul 30, 2024
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steve liesman has the results from the latest fed survey. mr. liesman? >> good afternoon. rate cuts are coming, just not this meeting. there's increasing confidence the fed will cut in the fall. of course, a new focus on how far they go over the cutting cycle and how quickly they get there. 81% in our survey say the first cut comes in september. 86% say the second cut comes in december. what's mising? no november cut. the futures market has not priced that in. march 2025 is when quantitative easing ends, saying forget politics, mr. powell, do what you need to do regardless of the election. let's do a little math here. the current rate is 5.38. the average for this survey is a 4.91 fed funds rate by the end of the year. so call that 2.25 basis points. then 3.94 by the end of next year. so a gradual pace of cutting. and then the long run rate, 3.1. well, over the time period we're talking about, the fed remains relatively tight, relative to the perceived long-run rate. steven nicholas writes -- >> okay. so fed cuts, 36% say the fed cutting too late is the most likely outcome
steve liesman has the results from the latest fed survey. mr. liesman? >> good afternoon. rate cuts are coming, just not this meeting. there's increasing confidence the fed will cut in the fall. of course, a new focus on how far they go over the cutting cycle and how quickly they get there. 81% in our survey say the first cut comes in september. 86% say the second cut comes in december. what's mising? no november cut. the futures market has not priced that in. march 2025 is when...
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let's get to steve liesman with a look at this high-stakes fed meeting. i see blinder calling for a cut this week? >> yeah, he did, but i don't think he's going to get it as much as i do like the former federal reserve vice chair alan winder and i don't think he's going to get it and this, kelly is the meeting before the meeting with the question being how much guidance does the fed chair powell provide for what would be rate decreases in september and perhaps beyond. mind you, the statement here and it's been safe for several months and the committee says it would not be appropriate to reduce the target range until inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%. >> it creates the opportunity for the fed to change this and indicate it's gaining greater confidence. powell said in one of his testimonies that he has, and it would be hawkish, i think, if he left that phrasing alone. the markets going into this meeting and 100% with the cut price in september and a 68% of a second rate cut in november and the probability of a rate cut in december. an eight-basis p
let's get to steve liesman with a look at this high-stakes fed meeting. i see blinder calling for a cut this week? >> yeah, he did, but i don't think he's going to get it as much as i do like the former federal reserve vice chair alan winder and i don't think he's going to get it and this, kelly is the meeting before the meeting with the question being how much guidance does the fed chair powell provide for what would be rate decreases in september and perhaps beyond. mind you, the...
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Jul 25, 2024
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steve liesman says, look at gdp over the last couple quarters.t does it for us today. make sure you join us back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ >>> good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. stocks do look for some stability after wednesday's long absent 2% decline. q2 gdp solid, thanks to inventories, but these disappointing earnings at ford, american, whirlpool, nestle and others briefly take the ten-year below 4.2%. >>> futures turn green, investors weigh gdp after stocks saw the biggest one-day drop since '22 with meg
steve liesman says, look at gdp over the last couple quarters.t does it for us today. make sure you join us back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ >>> good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. stocks do look for some stability after wednesday's long absent 2% decline. q2 gdp solid, thanks to inventories, but these...
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and senior economics reporter steve liesman has been looking at that.hat we can learn, nobody knows for sure, for her tenure as vice president, senator and prosecutor, in the biden administration, that doesn't mean everything would be identical, i guess. >> i'm hearing a lot of that, though. i'll get to that in a second, joe. the front-runner kamala harris, democratic front-runner, launching her campaign yesterday in milwaukee, offering maybe a glimpse of what some of her economic policies might look like. she said she supported -- >> a future where no child has to grow in poverty. where every worker has the freedom to join a union. where every person has affordable healthcare, affordable child care, and paid family leave. >> those words echoed some key themes of the biden administration. also, issues that harris has championed behind the scenes on her own as the senator, including that child tax credit continuation and other government aid programs that address inequality with only a modest economic record, one that the democratic policy adviser told m
and senior economics reporter steve liesman has been looking at that.hat we can learn, nobody knows for sure, for her tenure as vice president, senator and prosecutor, in the biden administration, that doesn't mean everything would be identical, i guess. >> i'm hearing a lot of that, though. i'll get to that in a second, joe. the front-runner kamala harris, democratic front-runner, launching her campaign yesterday in milwaukee, offering maybe a glimpse of what some of her economic...
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liesman has made made his way outside of the conference room where it was. the fed seemed to not only set the table for the rate cut in september, he all, but served the appetizer. was that your take? >> i thought it was more circumspect, and i thought he could go either way, and there were times when he said it would not happen and there were times when he indicated not just one cut, but what i asked him was this idea, that you said in the past that it was a process of rate cuts, that one cut won't do anything, and i asked him if he was envisioning a process and here's what he said. >> we can afford to begin to dial back the restriction in the policy rate and it is part of a process. in terms of what that looks like, i think most rates -- you would think in a base case that policy rates would move down from here, but i don't want to try to give specific forward guidance about when that might be or the pace at which it might happen because hal depthat will depend on the economy. >> that was before the statement in the press conference for now. right now we'r
liesman has made made his way outside of the conference room where it was. the fed seemed to not only set the table for the rate cut in september, he all, but served the appetizer. was that your take? >> i thought it was more circumspect, and i thought he could go either way, and there were times when he said it would not happen and there were times when he indicated not just one cut, but what i asked him was this idea, that you said in the past that it was a process of rate cuts, that...
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steve liesman joins us with more on the data and fed news.ed to offer another perspective to something rick said. >> thank god! thank god! i was going to stay quiet because i didn't want to start a riot. >> this is the way it always starts. >> i offer it gently and just for consideration. that people may say they want a deflationary period but i don't know how many people consider generally in a deflationary period incomes go down too. i think there's an argument if you restore the prior supply chain situation we had before the pandemic and the prior competitive situation before the pandemic that indeed prices could go back closer to where they were before the pandemic on a short-run basis. but i would urge people not to wish too much for a deflationary period because your prices go down and your incomes go down. two examples one was the great financial crisis and of course during the pandemic. if you look at wages and salaries, they fell as well. i would offer on the jobless claims numbers, rick said this. we're towards the high side but not
steve liesman joins us with more on the data and fed news.ed to offer another perspective to something rick said. >> thank god! thank god! i was going to stay quiet because i didn't want to start a riot. >> this is the way it always starts. >> i offer it gently and just for consideration. that people may say they want a deflationary period but i don't know how many people consider generally in a deflationary period incomes go down too. i think there's an argument if you...
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. >> steve. >> reporter: steve liesman, cnbc. mr.harles: folks i want to bring back booth booths, alli mack cart any. we're here taking notes and chatting away -- danielle dimartino booth. all data points are in a direction we want to see. alli, this keeps up question why wait, why wait, it has been asked two or three different times in different ways. he hasn't given a concrete answer that i don't want to be arthur burns. >> he is trying to be non-committal. he is asking where increase in inflation could come from? he couldn't really answer that. the bigger thing we have to focus on every ceo has been asking what's going to happen with a.i. and jobs and this earnings season they have been trying very hard to not to answer that question. the problem we all know the directionality it is going. that question they asked about preemptive i think is a real one. if they think we're behind the eight ball at this point, we're not even talking reactive, then proactive, preemptive is certainly off the table. charles: so he wants, asked several
. >> steve. >> reporter: steve liesman, cnbc. mr.harles: folks i want to bring back booth booths, alli mack cart any. we're here taking notes and chatting away -- danielle dimartino booth. all data points are in a direction we want to see. alli, this keeps up question why wait, why wait, it has been asked two or three different times in different ways. he hasn't given a concrete answer that i don't want to be arthur burns. >> he is trying to be non-committal. he is asking...
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Jul 5, 2024
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our own steve liesman is back. way. >> if you get to five, go to six. >> you got to go to six. i'd like to go to nine, if we could. let's start with rick. steve says 200. where are you? >> 225 to 250. 225 to 250 here. >> steph? >> 190. >> 190? douglas, your comments? >> 197. a little tick up on the unemployment rate. >> we will get the rest of the estimates in a second. i'm heading down to you and get everybody in eventually for the actual report, and sometimes it seeps out kind of slowly, rick, so why don't you take it away. >> absolutely. i know everybody is going to be debating the breakdown betpart-e and full-time. june, jobs, jobs report. non-farm payroll expands 206,000. that, of course, is benchmarked against the rearview mirror which, right now is going to be revised minus 111,000 is the two-month revision and if we look at the unemployment rate, he nailed it. our buddy nailed it up ten-tenth of a% from 4% to 4.1%. 4.1% is the hottest. we have to go back a ways. last time we were at 4.1% was november of 202
our own steve liesman is back. way. >> if you get to five, go to six. >> you got to go to six. i'd like to go to nine, if we could. let's start with rick. steve says 200. where are you? >> 225 to 250. 225 to 250 here. >> steph? >> 190. >> 190? douglas, your comments? >> 197. a little tick up on the unemployment rate. >> we will get the rest of the estimates in a second. i'm heading down to you and get everybody in eventually for the actual report,...
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Jul 24, 2024
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steve liesman has been looking at what we can learn from her tenure as vice. steve? senator and prosecutor. kamala harris launched her campaign yesterday in milwaukee. and she drew in her first speech themes from the biden administration and her more liberal past as a senator. >> building up the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency. >> because here's the thing we all here in wyoming know. when our middle class is strong, america is strong. >> affordable health care, affordable child care and paid family leave. some of those have been from the biden administration some from when she was a senator. with only a modest record, one that an adviser said supporters and critics are using the past to spin the economic future of a harris presidency. here's what the president say they don't see space on the economy or economic policy saying she backs an economy that works for small business and entrepreneurs. opposes the broader trump tariffs and has worked with big business in the past and also worked against them. including a public private partnership in cen
steve liesman has been looking at what we can learn from her tenure as vice. steve? senator and prosecutor. kamala harris launched her campaign yesterday in milwaukee. and she drew in her first speech themes from the biden administration and her more liberal past as a senator. >> building up the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency. >> because here's the thing we all here in wyoming know. when our middle class is strong, america is strong. >> affordable health...
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Jul 25, 2024
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steve liesman says, look at gdp over the last couple quarters. he says average them out for around that 2%. treasury yields with the ten-year at 4.24%. that does it for us today. make sure you join us back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ >>> good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. stocks do look for some stability after wednesday's long absent 2% decline. q2 gdp solid, thanks to inventories, but these disappointing earnings at ford, american, whirlpool, nestle and others briefly take the ten-year below 4.2%. >>> futures turn green, investors weigh gdp after stocks saw the biggest one-day drop since '22 with mega cap tech hit very hard. >>> plus we have an autos slaert, so to speak. ford shares are pointing to what could be the worst day those have seen in more than a decade after a massive miss on earnings. >>> and this hour, we are joined by the ceos of servicenow and southwest. lot of changes there a
steve liesman says, look at gdp over the last couple quarters. he says average them out for around that 2%. treasury yields with the ten-year at 4.24%. that does it for us today. make sure you join us back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ >>> good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. stocks do look for some stability after...
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Jul 30, 2024
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over to steve liesman who has the numbers for us. >> hey, david.oming, according to respondents to the cnbc fed survey. just not now. but there's increasing confidence the fed will be able to cut in the fall and a new focus right now on just how far they go over the cutting cycle and how they get there. 81% see that first cut coming in september. 86% see the second cut in december. note that this is a little more hawkish than the market which has three cuts really built in in the futures pricing. this group a little bit more cautious or thinks the fed will be cautious. 73% say the fed should ignore politics figuring out what to do in september. let's do the math. the current rate 5.38. the year end the average forecast for the fed funds rate is 4.91. call it two 25 basis point cuts this year. 3.94, call it another four cuts next year or every other meeting with the long being 3.1%. that tells you the fed is going be to tight or perceived to be tight over the next year and a half. chad morgan portfolio manager at stifel nick class says the federal r
over to steve liesman who has the numbers for us. >> hey, david.oming, according to respondents to the cnbc fed survey. just not now. but there's increasing confidence the fed will be able to cut in the fall and a new focus right now on just how far they go over the cutting cycle and how they get there. 81% see that first cut coming in september. 86% see the second cut in december. note that this is a little more hawkish than the market which has three cuts really built in in the futures...
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Jul 9, 2024
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to steve liesman as powell's prepaired remarks crossed the tape. >> yes.ill tell the committee on banking housing and urban affairs that the labor market conditions have cooled while remaining strong. most recent inflation readings he says have shown modest further progress, and he calls monetary policy restrictive and says restrictive monetary policy is putting downward pressure on inflation. the committee, however, still seeking greater confidence inflation is declining before reducing rates. he quotes that part of the statement that says that. he uses the freight "more good data" would strengthen our confidence that inflation is heading towards it. elevated inflation, he says "is not the only risk we face." it's talking two sidedly about the risk and cites the risk of moving too early and late as he has done in the past. the risk of employment goals are coming into better balance and the economy continues to expand at a solid pace, moderating in the first half after strong growth in the second half of last year. here's what he sees on the economy. solid
to steve liesman as powell's prepaired remarks crossed the tape. >> yes.ill tell the committee on banking housing and urban affairs that the labor market conditions have cooled while remaining strong. most recent inflation readings he says have shown modest further progress, and he calls monetary policy restrictive and says restrictive monetary policy is putting downward pressure on inflation. the committee, however, still seeking greater confidence inflation is declining before reducing...
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mary ann bartels, chief investment strategist at sanctuary wealth and our own steve liesman as well.o. he said expect the core number to be hotter than anticipated. >> yeah. that's because yesterday's core number in the gdp was a little hotter. we did dodge a bit of a bullet here. people thought maybe a revision of prior months. looks like mostly in june, but just a little bit. seeing here the goods, durable goods still down 0.2 on the month. that's negative. services up 0.3. sorry, 0.2. that's in line with where it's been. so i think this is okay for the federal reserve. i think they would have wanted it a little lower. to put a little more detail what rick told you. it wasn't 0.2. it was 0.18. looking at the hundredth of a decimal point to see what's going on. and one thing good for the federal reserve here i think is that wages andsalaries only up 0.3%. half of the prior month. a little less pressure from that point of view. i'll send it back to you, except understanding the savings rate. watching, waiting for it to increase. i believe it ticked down to 3.4% from 3.5. it remained
mary ann bartels, chief investment strategist at sanctuary wealth and our own steve liesman as well.o. he said expect the core number to be hotter than anticipated. >> yeah. that's because yesterday's core number in the gdp was a little hotter. we did dodge a bit of a bullet here. people thought maybe a revision of prior months. looks like mostly in june, but just a little bit. seeing here the goods, durable goods still down 0.2 on the month. that's negative. services up 0.3. sorry, 0.2....