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Mar 4, 2024
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torsten slok of apollo.ll catch up with darrell cronk of wells fargo, seth carpenter of morgan stanley and a lot more. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i think we have the troubling inflation report that will come in march. >> enough people out there are spending that it creates inflationary pressure for everyone. >> we are out of the world where inflation stays in the 2% lane. >> the target is currently underappreciated by the markets. >> inflation is still slowing i think it's probably slowing more than the consensus thanks. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. jonathan: live from new york city this morning, good morning, good morning. surveillance begins right now with an optimistic bunch. torsten slok saying things are so good the fed won't cut in 2024. sticky inflation may be in issue. nouriel rabin he saying the biggest risk for this economy in the near term is upside risk. that's not typically the thing you would expect him to tell us. lisa: he didn't add to my list of worries. if anything, t
torsten slok of apollo.ll catch up with darrell cronk of wells fargo, seth carpenter of morgan stanley and a lot more. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> i think we have the troubling inflation report that will come in march. >> enough people out there are spending that it creates inflationary pressure for everyone. >> we are out of the world where inflation stays in the 2% lane. >> the target is currently underappreciated by the markets. >> inflation is...
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Mar 12, 2024
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jo joining me now is torsten slok. >> good morning, frank. >> you are a laid back guy. you got the markets excited earlier this month. you put out a note forecasting no fed rate cuts this year. you said the fed will spend all year trying to fight inflation. how is the cpi read today? >> it is very important, frank. since the fed meeting on december 13th, we have seen a significant rally in the stock market. we have seen a tightening in credit spreads and high yield credit spreads. we have seen financial conditions which have eased with ipo activity coming back. all of these things are significant tailwind to the economic outlook and consumer spending and markets which what is going on. all that means we will see another lift in the economic data because people have more money in their hands as the stock market has gone up. bitcoin prices are going up. the weth ealth effect is meanin. all of this provides a tailwind and lift to inflation over the coming months. >> you see a lot of tailwinds. the strong stock market and bitcoin and cash flow from fixed income. you believe
jo joining me now is torsten slok. >> good morning, frank. >> you are a laid back guy. you got the markets excited earlier this month. you put out a note forecasting no fed rate cuts this year. you said the fed will spend all year trying to fight inflation. how is the cpi read today? >> it is very important, frank. since the fed meeting on december 13th, we have seen a significant rally in the stock market. we have seen a tightening in credit spreads and high yield credit...
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Mar 1, 2024
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the bottom line torsten says, the fed will be fighting inflation all year. >> that's the question. i think the fed, after what we saw on the way up, they want to make sure they got this right, and they ak acted late. i agree with that. i think there's some troubling data that came out and consumer spending is slowing down. we saw slowing numbers today. i truly don't believe you can write off the risk of not having a soft landing, something worse. jamie dimon said that. we've had, of course, david solomon from goldman said that. these people are right at the crossroads of all that data as well. so, to me, that's the caution and the worry. and if the fed does keep rates for this high into next year, i think with certainty that you could see an economic recession. >> jim, any chance no cuts in 2024? i mean, zero cuts in 2024? >> i love torsten. i read him every day. >> silver mind. >> he's not afraid to say what he thinks. let's say that. you're welcome, you should get a lot of subscription results. he is must read. i read it today. it taught my attention. i do think the fed will have
the bottom line torsten says, the fed will be fighting inflation all year. >> that's the question. i think the fed, after what we saw on the way up, they want to make sure they got this right, and they ak acted late. i agree with that. i think there's some troubling data that came out and consumer spending is slowing down. we saw slowing numbers today. i truly don't believe you can write off the risk of not having a soft landing, something worse. jamie dimon said that. we've had, of...
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Mar 3, 2024
03/24
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but we are delighted to be joined by torsten bell from the resolution foundation, a think tank that doesber crunching. but we should also say to newscasters, you work for ed miliband, you're a labour figure, prominent figure in labour circles as well. you're making a face! in ancient history. i'd say i'm a prominent figure in resolution foundation circles, and we are an independent think tank _ ten years since you worked for labour. nine years, 2015. but long, long years. goodness me, we've brexited, since then we've pandemic—ed, podcasts have been invented, sea shanties have been written. much has taken place. a lot has happened. but have things changed in terms of what it's like? do you think being in the treasury when you are preparing a budget because you worked for alistair darling, he had to produce budgets in very, very difficult times. i remember then actually one of his budgets that came up and said, oh, debt might hit 89% of gdp at some and everyone went, oh my god! and actually we've managed that. we've managed that, and even worse. so what's it like if you're in a treasury te
but we are delighted to be joined by torsten bell from the resolution foundation, a think tank that doesber crunching. but we should also say to newscasters, you work for ed miliband, you're a labour figure, prominent figure in labour circles as well. you're making a face! in ancient history. i'd say i'm a prominent figure in resolution foundation circles, and we are an independent think tank _ ten years since you worked for labour. nine years, 2015. but long, long years. goodness me, we've...
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torsten bell , who's the chief torsten bell, who's the chief executive of the resolution foundation,sers are pensioners who face an £8 billion collective hit . let's billion collective hit. let's get more reaction now and i'm joined by my colleague ray addison in waterlooville in hampshire. ray, people yesterday in gb news land very, very unhappy. what they got in terms of pensioners, what's the mood on the ground there in waterlooville ? waterlooville? >> yeah, absolutely. martin chancellor, chancellor jeremy hunt being accused of just simply not doing enough for pensioners in that spring budget. age uk describing it as a non—event for older people and pensioners that i've been speaking to here in waterlooville , saying that they waterlooville, saying that they feel like they've just simply been overlooked by the government in this budget. now, of course , we do know that the of course, we do know that the chancellor restated the government's commitment to the triple lock for the state pension, but they're telling me that they would have liked to have heard that they would pay less
torsten bell , who's the chief torsten bell, who's the chief executive of the resolution foundation,sers are pensioners who face an £8 billion collective hit . let's billion collective hit. let's get more reaction now and i'm joined by my colleague ray addison in waterlooville in hampshire. ray, people yesterday in gb news land very, very unhappy. what they got in terms of pensioners, what's the mood on the ground there in waterlooville ? waterlooville? >> yeah, absolutely. martin...
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Mar 5, 2024
03/24
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why is torsten slok wrong in your opinion?you have a productivity surge you can have an economy that is strong while it moderates. our group has a forecast that we will have in hand for the fed the 2.1% on pce. they will have data that could allow them to cut and you have to ask question where should real rates be? was say they were to cut their 75 basis points this year. you go from restrictive to moderately restrictive. you still have restrictive rates within the economy. the financial conditions we look out on wall street are not the conditions the average consumer faces. they are dealing with higher interest rates on credit cards, auto loans, mortgages so high they are priced out of purchasing homes. if you on stocks financial conditions are easier but if you are younger, you have tight conditions. jonathan: equity markets all-time highs, credit conditions loose, is not not important? constance: we don't think that re-acceleration will continue at pace. jonathan: what do you think fueled it? constance: inventory buildups a
why is torsten slok wrong in your opinion?you have a productivity surge you can have an economy that is strong while it moderates. our group has a forecast that we will have in hand for the fed the 2.1% on pce. they will have data that could allow them to cut and you have to ask question where should real rates be? was say they were to cut their 75 basis points this year. you go from restrictive to moderately restrictive. you still have restrictive rates within the economy. the financial...
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Mar 1, 2024
03/24
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i think the scenario torsten has laid out would be bearish for the loan market where you have privatesors and a lot of these issuers are thinking i just need to make it six or 12 months and they'll have that on the borrowing side. >> does that become -- is that sort of this idea that if we don't get these rate cuts. >> you will see the maturity wall and the idea of interest coverage, back into risks third or fourth quarter if we don't see those rate cuts. maturities that have to be reified this year we are almost halfway through those but looking we will have the maturity wall step back up again. this could be coming back into the discussion. >> which companies are truly surviving till 2025. does this cutting cycle on the precipice of failing survive? >> i think it's not just the 100 basis points but there's a confidence the cutting cycle is underway and if your private equity sponsor you have cash on hand. you will have to pick and choose and you won't infuse cash into every company you own in order to help them survive. there is this element of if the fed cutting cycle is underway w
i think the scenario torsten has laid out would be bearish for the loan market where you have privatesors and a lot of these issuers are thinking i just need to make it six or 12 months and they'll have that on the borrowing side. >> does that become -- is that sort of this idea that if we don't get these rate cuts. >> you will see the maturity wall and the idea of interest coverage, back into risks third or fourth quarter if we don't see those rate cuts. maturities that have to be...
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Mar 7, 2024
03/24
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we have torsten slok of apollo. i think ed was on the same page.f you're looking for reasons to cut rates you are not finding them in the data. the data is showing these equities can keep rallying even with rates at these levels. jonathan: we are positive .2% on the s&p 500. here is your bloomberg brief with dani burger. dani: houthi militants claim responsibility for attack on a commercial ship off the coast of yemen. three crew members were killed. it is the first confirmed death of crewmembers since the attack started in november. indianapolis fed president says he might lower his expectations prevent cuts this year. in december he said he had projected two but now he says his forecast will show two or one when officials submit new projections in march. nycb shares higher premarket. the struggling real estate lender rally yesterday after receiving equity investment of more than $1 billion from investors that include the former treasury secretary steven mnuchin. nycb fares have lost almost two thirds of their value since the bank/shares of its di
we have torsten slok of apollo. i think ed was on the same page.f you're looking for reasons to cut rates you are not finding them in the data. the data is showing these equities can keep rallying even with rates at these levels. jonathan: we are positive .2% on the s&p 500. here is your bloomberg brief with dani burger. dani: houthi militants claim responsibility for attack on a commercial ship off the coast of yemen. three crew members were killed. it is the first confirmed death of...
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Mar 13, 2024
03/24
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. —— torsten bell.f people's energy bills. i'm sure you and your party supported that. but you have to be honest with people, when you have those extremely unusual global emergencies there are financial consequences. that's why i have never hidden from the fact is that it have never hidden from the fact is thatitis have never hidden from the fact is that it is more painfulfor me have never hidden from the fact is that it is more painful for me than i expect it is for you as a labour politician but i had to put up taxes, yes. and i now want to bring them down. you're not going to bring them down. you're not going to bring them down. you're not going to bring them down all in one go. it will take time but the autumn statement and in the spring budget we made a start. and tax cuts i chose were the ones that are most going to help the growth of the economy and deliver the 0.7% increase in gdp that the chair was referring to.— chair was referring to. analysis shows that _ chair was referring to. analysis sho
. —— torsten bell.f people's energy bills. i'm sure you and your party supported that. but you have to be honest with people, when you have those extremely unusual global emergencies there are financial consequences. that's why i have never hidden from the fact is that it have never hidden from the fact is thatitis have never hidden from the fact is that it is more painfulfor me have never hidden from the fact is that it is more painful for me than i expect it is for you as a labour...
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Mar 21, 2024
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. >> how solomon in new york and ms is cnn a new torsten in the drama surrounding catherine the princess of wales. now, the hospital where she underwent abdominal surgery in recovered for nearly two weeks is the center of a scandal over her medical privacy, seen as max foster has details another de another princess headline, this one alleging medical staff tried to illegally access her records while she was >> there to undergo surgery at this private london clinic? the country's data watchdog now says it's assessing a breach of confidentiality reported in the daily mirror, the british tabloid reported that at least one hospital staffer allegedly tried to illegally access kate's private medical records while she spent 13 nights at the london clinic hospital in january after planned abdominal surgery the mirror says the hospital in form the palace and launched a probe into the allegations. and in a statement to cnn, but uk's information commissioner's office said, we can confirm that we've received a breach report and are assessing the information provided on wednesday, the uk's health min
. >> how solomon in new york and ms is cnn a new torsten in the drama surrounding catherine the princess of wales. now, the hospital where she underwent abdominal surgery in recovered for nearly two weeks is the center of a scandal over her medical privacy, seen as max foster has details another de another princess headline, this one alleging medical staff tried to illegally access her records while she was >> there to undergo surgery at this private london clinic? the country's...
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Mar 25, 2024
03/24
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torsten slok putting out a piece on how wage inflation is still stickier at 5% in the united states.shares of united slightly lower on the heels of reporting from bloomberg the faa is weighing measures to curb growth that the airline following u.s. during of safety incidents. these could prevent united from adding new routes and preventing united flying paying customers on new aircraft. united declining to comment. we are lower almost 4%. annmarie: if this will be a clampdown on growth -- lisa, you're trying to thinking of booking up your holiday travel -- what does this mean for prices if their roots are being clawed back and we're going into peak summer travel. lisa: it is not my airline so they can go for it. [laughter] jonathan: we know your airline. i will not mention your airline. annmarie: there is a chain of fact. jonathan: we have been looking at the issues we've seen with boeing and we're trying to work out who was ultimately responsible -- more broadly the responsibility of the airline, the responsibility of the plane maker, and what we are seeing some of the issues happen
torsten slok putting out a piece on how wage inflation is still stickier at 5% in the united states.shares of united slightly lower on the heels of reporting from bloomberg the faa is weighing measures to curb growth that the airline following u.s. during of safety incidents. these could prevent united from adding new routes and preventing united flying paying customers on new aircraft. united declining to comment. we are lower almost 4%. annmarie: if this will be a clampdown on growth -- lisa,...
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looking at this, who are the winners, who are the losers, well, the conclusion of and i will credit torstened they , you know, recognised that they, you know, look these things look at these things independently are well independently and are a well respected think our tax is respected think tank. our tax is going or down. up still going up or down. up still rising to 30, 37% of gdp in 2829, the highest level since 1948. and if i can just do one !948. and if i can just do one more thing, personal taxes will also overall be going up, not down. however, there is a caveat here. middle earning workers gain more from rate cuts than they lose from the threshold. freezes but and here's the key thing lo and i care more about lo lo and higher earners are at the opposite ends. >> so lower middle income earners are the winners and people who are on the bottom and at the top they lose out. yeah. >> and some people would say , >> and some people would say, well actually some actually i suppose some people would say that's fair. i don't think if people who are struggling most are losing out, i struggle t
looking at this, who are the winners, who are the losers, well, the conclusion of and i will credit torstened they , you know, recognised that they, you know, look these things look at these things independently are well independently and are a well respected think our tax is respected think tank. our tax is going or down. up still going up or down. up still rising to 30, 37% of gdp in 2829, the highest level since 1948. and if i can just do one !948. and if i can just do one more thing,...