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Feb 16, 2024
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the from the university of strathclyde is now with us.— from the university of strathclyde is now withons and was reflected in your previous contribution is the fact it looks as though reform uk are able to win notable share of the vote. we know from the polling data that a lot of thatis from the polling data that a lot of that is coming from people who voted conservative in 2019 stop not all of them will necessarily go conservative if reform uk went on the ballot paper but it is clear reform uk will do more damage to the conservatives than to the labour party and that's not going to be enough for reform uk themselves to win a seat but it increases the risk to conservative mps that they will lose their seat to the labour party especially if you bear in mind that in these constituencies, the constituencies, the predecessor the brexit party of reform uk did not stand because they stood down on our seats conservatives were not defending. richard tye, the former —— the current reform uk leader has said that will not happen. the fact they're taking votes from conservatives, the evidence at
the from the university of strathclyde is now with us.— from the university of strathclyde is now withons and was reflected in your previous contribution is the fact it looks as though reform uk are able to win notable share of the vote. we know from the polling data that a lot of thatis from the polling data that a lot of that is coming from people who voted conservative in 2019 stop not all of them will necessarily go conservative if reform uk went on the ballot paper but it is clear reform...
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Feb 16, 2024
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also with us is polling guru sirjohn curtice now, professor of politics at the university of strathclydef course for being with us. i wanted to start, we were talking about willingboro with harry, and there is quite a lot on social media saying labour going to win this. you have your ear to the ground, what are you hearing at the moment respect well, it's certainly true that twitter, including some professional journalists twitter, including some professionaljournalists on twitter, which perhaps is more important, are saying both the labour sources and conservative sources are in agreement that labour have won the constituency, just to remind everybody, this is the more difficult of the two by—elections tonight for labour to win, it requires an 18% swing, it requires the kind of swing, it requires the kind of swing not far short of the over 20% swing set labour security is the by—elections back in autumn. iii is the by-elections back in autumn-— is the by-elections back in autumn. ., , is the by-elections back in autumn. . , , autumn. if indeed that ends up bein: the autumn. if indeed th
also with us is polling guru sirjohn curtice now, professor of politics at the university of strathclydef course for being with us. i wanted to start, we were talking about willingboro with harry, and there is quite a lot on social media saying labour going to win this. you have your ear to the ground, what are you hearing at the moment respect well, it's certainly true that twitter, including some professional journalists twitter, including some professionaljournalists on twitter, which...
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Feb 16, 2024
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earlier i spoke with polling guru sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclydetion, just reflected in your previous contribution, is the fact that it does now look as though reform uk are able to win a notable share of the vote. we know from the polling data that a lot of that is coming from people who voted conservative in 2019. not all of them will necessarily vote conservative if reform went on the ballot paper, but it is pretty clear that reform will do more damage to the conservatives than they are to labour. and that is not going to be enough for reform themselves to win a seat, but it does increase the risk to conservative mps that they will lose their seat to labour, particularly if you bear in mind that is in the two constituency reform predecessor, the brexit party, did not stand in 2019 because they stood down and all the seats the conservatives were defending. richard tice, the current reform leader, has made it clear thatis reform leader, has made it clear that is not going to happen. the evidence of recent opinion polls, that reform are now taking
earlier i spoke with polling guru sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclydetion, just reflected in your previous contribution, is the fact that it does now look as though reform uk are able to win a notable share of the vote. we know from the polling data that a lot of that is coming from people who voted conservative in 2019. not all of them will necessarily vote conservative if reform went on the ballot paper, but it is pretty clear that reform will do more...
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Feb 15, 2024
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politics at the university of strathclyde.know you always enjoy these nights. a big test for conservatives and labour tonight. it is indeed. there are two rather different constituencies, kingswood is a seed that labour actually one of he comfortably went tony blair was prime minister and the 97,2001 and 2005 elections, contrary to what pat mcfadden implied in his statement about labour, actually kingswood if in the next general election were being fought on the current boundaries which they are not going to become a kingswood would actually be in the list of seats that they say labour would need to pick up if they need the majority. the swing of 11% is a little bit less than the swing we are seeing we might need here in order to get a majority in the general election, willingboro in contrast a requires an 18% swing, thatis contrast a requires an 18% swing, that is above the swing that is currently being recorded in the national opinion polls, which is around about 14.5% at the moment. but as the conservatives themselves be ra
politics at the university of strathclyde.know you always enjoy these nights. a big test for conservatives and labour tonight. it is indeed. there are two rather different constituencies, kingswood is a seed that labour actually one of he comfortably went tony blair was prime minister and the 97,2001 and 2005 elections, contrary to what pat mcfadden implied in his statement about labour, actually kingswood if in the next general election were being fought on the current boundaries which they...
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Feb 16, 2024
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we'rejoined now by sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclyde.hose two by—elections and what they signify. impression of those two by-elections and what they signify.— and what they signify. there are three big headlines, _ and what they signify. there are three big headlines, naga. - and what they signify. there are three big headlines, naga. the| and what they signify. there are - three big headlines, naga. the first is that they confirm that the conservatives are still in deep, deep electoral trouble. the 21 point drop in their support in kingswood is in line with that 19, 20 point drop they have an opinion piles. the drop they have an opinion piles. the drop in wellingborough is actually the biggest loss that conservatives have had in a post—war by—election. it could be the circumstances regarding peter bone a's downfall and his replacement by his partner might have added to the woes there but this morning we are still looking at a government that at the moment is staring defeat in the face at the next general election. headline number two is
we'rejoined now by sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at the university of strathclyde.hose two by—elections and what they signify. impression of those two by-elections and what they signify.— and what they signify. there are three big headlines, _ and what they signify. there are three big headlines, naga. - and what they signify. there are three big headlines, naga. the| and what they signify. there are - three big headlines, naga. the first is that they confirm that the conservatives...
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Feb 16, 2024
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sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at strathclyde university, has been following the by electionsning us, you have been up all night and you are still going. let me ask you the big question. do you think these results suggest that keir starmer�*s labour party will secure a victory at the next general election?— secure a victory at the next general election? these results certainly do _ general election? these results certainly do nothing _ general election? these results certainly do nothing to - general election? these results certainly do nothing to cast - certainly do nothing to cast any doubt on that proposition that didn't exist beforehand. it has long looked, really ever since the downfall of liz truss backin since the downfall of liz truss back in the autumn of 2022, that labour had an excellent chance of winning a general election. we have now seen overnight two very substantial swings from conservatives to labour. they are on top of substantial swings in by—elections in the second half of last year, and therefore in a sense the evidence is all of a sense the evidence is a
sirjohn curtice, professor of politics at strathclyde university, has been following the by electionsning us, you have been up all night and you are still going. let me ask you the big question. do you think these results suggest that keir starmer�*s labour party will secure a victory at the next general election?— secure a victory at the next general election? these results certainly do _ general election? these results certainly do nothing _ general election? these results certainly do...
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Feb 10, 2024
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- >> let's 7_ >> let's talk to 7 >> let's talk to professor of politics at the university of strathclyde morning . what do you um, good morning. what do you make of all of this? because it's all not about the it's all it's not about the reality . it's about the optics, reality. it's about the optics, isn't it ? isn't it? >> well, i think the first thing i want to say is that mr sunak is clearly a lucky man. he is clearly very rich. his wife by reputation is also very rich. and i suppose one could say that given frankly, he he's not reliant on his income as prime minister or indeed he need not necessarily be reliant on the income from any job he might do. um, in a sense, he can certainly argue that he's engaging in pubuc argue that he's engaging in public service . but that said, public service. but that said, of course, what his wealth has long been used for occasions by his opponents, although , of his opponents, although, of course, it's a very narrow line to tread between seemingly engaging in unnecessary personal attack and, uh, a casting doubt on his judgement is still whether or no
- >> let's 7_ >> let's talk to 7 >> let's talk to professor of politics at the university of strathclyde morning . what do you um, good morning. what do you make of all of this? because it's all not about the it's all it's not about the reality . it's about the optics, reality. it's about the optics, isn't it ? isn't it? >> well, i think the first thing i want to say is that mr sunak is clearly a lucky man. he is clearly very rich. his wife by reputation is also very...
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Feb 17, 2024
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of strathclyde, curtice.we try by—election, don't we? is we try to extrapolate. we try to work out this means for the out what this all means for the national can we do that national picture. can we do that in this case or not? >> well, it shouldn't be done in isolation and it needs to be done with care in particular, what we should be doing is comparing by elections with by elections . then looking at what elections. then looking at what has followed in the wake of different kinds of by—election results , be aware that history results, be aware that history isn't guaranteed to repeat itself and then you know , draw itself and then you know, draw a measured conclusion. so the government, uh, way back now at 10:00 on thursday, uh, the conservative party at least issued a statement saying, well, you know, governments always lose and we lose by elections. and we shouldn't well shouldn't be surprised. well it's true that often voters will use by elections as a means of protesting against the government, particula
of strathclyde, curtice.we try by—election, don't we? is we try to extrapolate. we try to work out this means for the out what this all means for the national can we do that national picture. can we do that in this case or not? >> well, it shouldn't be done in isolation and it needs to be done with care in particular, what we should be doing is comparing by elections with by elections . then looking at what elections. then looking at what has followed in the wake of different kinds of...