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good evening on the air is a big game today vladimir putin said at the ceremony of presenting the credentials of new ambassadors of foreign states that the formation of a multipolar world is the main trend in world development, and russia will not curtail its sovereign course and will continue to act as a responsible great power. however, the main engine for the formation of this multipolar world is undoubtedly is a special operation of russia in ukraine, which in the near future may significantly change the donetsk luhansk people's republic as well as the authorities of the liberated kherson zaporozhye regions , referendums on joining russia

were scheduled very soon for september 23-27, these referendums are historical and a turning point both in the development of the russian special military operation and in the development of russia and in the development of europe and even the whole world after the adoption of the new four regions its composition. russia will no longer simply defend the people's republics, but will restore its territorial integrity, using for this all available means that the country's leadership will consider it necessary and how the west will react to this. what are the scenarios for the further development of the military conflict in ukraine the scenario of russian western relations in general, we will talk today with the president of the center for national interests dmitry simes and the director of the center for strategy and technology ruslan pukhov dmitry ruslan good evening. dimitri the united states has, of course, already stated that they do not recognize it. uh, those referendums that are scheduled for the end of september by the sun of the

united states he linda thomas greenfield already met. e discussed the reaction of the united states to these referendums with dmitry kuleba, minister of foreign affairs of ukraine. that is, it is obvious that the negative reaction will be the condemnation of a rhetorical judgment. but if you have an understanding, how else can the united states react to this, uh, dimitri first, how can i not really. i'm filming how you talk about it. talk so calmly how many times you can't say it. how many times have we been warned not to recognize? what is going on? as a sovereign power, vladimir putin said today - this is expressed in practice. and what about the rules, there is the right to rule international life, and the right of the nation to self-determination, russia implements this right, what does the west have to deal with? they wish russia well for bad things, sometimes they warn you and

nothing affects you. and you know, dmitry, for many centuries this has not affected you. here, let's see what happened during the time of ivan the terrible moscow prince has no right to royal whose? europe does not recognize him as king. i don't know if it will be strong. ruslan this is the main question, obviously it is obvious, speaking seriously, speaking seriously, it is quite obvious that not only will they not recognize, but that there will be some actions, at least from the ukrainian side, in order to demonstrate this non-recognition and prevent these referendums from taking place, so that if they will make the population of these territories of

these republics of these regions pay a big price, and it is obvious that the united states will not agree from the point of view that since now it is an organic part of russia who cannot be used american weapons for carrying strikes against these new russian territories. and now i have a question, what, from your point of view, does this mean for the progress of the special operation. will this move change how you change? will any other methods be used? we all know what to watch, who is mentioned, but you are an expert and you know the cards in your hands, we all somehow forgot that the state is primarily a war. we got used to the xx century, its second half at the beginning of the xxi century, that the state is free education. it is often free or

largely free social security. yes, and the notorious tiles on the street, but for centuries and millennia, the main function of the state was to protect sovereignty and protect its borders. and where the borders lie, the borders lie, where people have said that they want to be within the framework of this state, so we need this mandate more for ourselves, and not for the west in this sense. it seems to me that if the referendum in crimea was done to a large extent, how to prove to the west that we have, so to speak, an honest intention, yes, here we are, as it were, ah, proving this to ourselves and to those people who live in this e in these territories. but russia will have to prove it. if you're talking about it, you'll have to prove it on the battlefield. unfortunately, this

will happen. unfortunately, it must be stated that there will be an escalation, because ukraine somehow reminds you, you know, but of a certain bull terrier, yes, which in a fit of rage, its owner is already pulling back, and he is biting the leash again, therefore, i am deeply convinced that ukraine will search, and we will, uh, respond. i really hope that now we will respond in full force. we believe that our people live in these territories, therefore, well, we cannot bomb them in the stone age, like the ukrainians. yes, that's why we often acted by some kind of uh, some half-measures, but military operations have their own logic. yes, the situation is getting worse . yes, the fighters are getting involved. yes, they died, comrades. they are wounded, comrades. they see civilian casualties and war acquire their own dynamics. even if we call it a special war operation. it seems to me that dmitry continues what

ruslan was talking about, not only the scale and nature of the special operation will change, but the russian perception of western policy regarding the ukrainian conflict will also change, because now the special operation is after the referendums are held. i mean after the completion of all legal procedures. admission to the russian federation of four new subjects, this special operation will be officially be considered. well, this is my assumption of the people's liberation war. you know the foreign quantity the aspect of e is, of course, important, but still it is secondary. there is such an apocalyph that when, at the end of the e-war in the european theater in the forty- fifth year, japan had not yet been replaced. eh, it seems there is a question in knowledge. but what about the interests of the pope and the vatican of the throne of rome, what , uh, did stalin throw? how many divisions? yes, that's why the big battalions are always right. yes, and it is these

battalions that will prove who is right. and who exactly am i i’m talking about this, but you understand dmitry in russia is already proceeding from the fact that ukraine is only an instrument of western policy towards russia , that we are actually at war with the west, but through ukraine we will use them. the west as a proxy, and after the transformation that will take place after the referendums and the completion of all procedures and the attitude to this western policy on the part of moscow, on the part of russia it will be much more sensitive and it seems to me that the idea is, and in general, but the future of referendums should take in conjunction with the words that maria zakharova and the official representative of the russian ministry of foreign affairs and anatoly antonov recently spoke from the russian federation to the united states that if the united states hands over long-range missiles to ukraine. they become a party to this conflict, a party to the conflict over the territorial integrity of russia. this is very

serious dmitry this is very serious. i spoke with several russian officials today, none of them like you, you can guess, separated from me in details. forthcoming russian operations, but it was stiflingly said that i should not take referendums in isolation from military measures to protect them. and what will these measures be and what will these measures be soon? that's what measures is a very interesting question. what do you know when they criticize the russian government for not doing more before and not acting more cruelly. i have a reaction to this. i have my first personal emotional reaction to this. in the end, i wanted to when i see how the ukrainian army behaves when i looking at naked, uh, ukrainian terrorism. and

when i look at the fact that they dared to commit this murder in moscow, i say, the murder of daria dugina, and in general, they wage war mercilessly. well, here they are behaving like real bandera. i’m talking now, not even about views, but about methods about the readiness to do anything, including with my compatriots, who may be innocent, in addition to the fact that they do not live in the territory that you you control. but, and i have a second reaction, my reaction a person who claims to be a well-known expertise. i understand how difficult it is to make escalation decisions. for example, people who demand that they almost hit washington with strategic missiles, i wanted to hear. they are already evacuating their families from moscow and are

going to abandon their population. we all understand that an exchange of strategic strikes can lead to a catastrophe. mobilization is a very good, in principle, understandable idea . prepared, in which you call, there must be enough weapons for them. all this should be thought out and calculated by the general staffs. there must be an understanding that mobilization is in some circles. it may even cause discontent at first, discontent, discontent that will arise before real military results are possible, so i understand if you want restraint of the initial russian reaction. and now it seems to me, really, but ukraine and those who arm it, they came some kind of lines red lines

russian traits are traits of normal morality. and i think that some kind of answer is now militarily necessary from the point of view. at least, i would even say not only not only the russian leadership, not only the russian general staff, not the vast majority of the population of russia, at least, that's my point of view. tell me what you think, well, in practice, what russia needs to do is that aggregate mobilization is completely unnecessary. we already remember how in russian history in 1915-16 a huge the number of reserve colonels who were not sent to the front. yes, accumulated in large cities. and as a matter of fact, they did here to buzov what you want to call the october coup, you want the great october socialist revolution, so an attempt to just stupidly row people, and putting overcoats on them will not lead to anything. undoubtedly, we need mobilization outside the military sense of the word. society should be

set up to shake it off, yes, and make some effort. yes, and i'm sure that society will probably be some kind of point mobilization with a high degree of probability. those laws that were adopted today in the duma will lead to the fact that we will increase the number, and military personnel. it is quite obvious that for such a large scale for such a geography, to which we are sentenced, but we do not have enough infantry. yes, but we need a lot more people, so these people will have to be put under arms, but this does not mean that people will be missed in the street. yes, and stuff them into buses. i am deeply convinced of this, and russia, of course, can search, yes? e the question is different. on the territory of this ukraine live people whom we consider our citizens and we, unlike the ukrainian regime, unlike zelensky, are not ready to erase them into thermobalic

dust. yes, so for us, of course, there are a huge number of restrictions. both moral and living, then we will restore this territory. well, one of these main restrictions is, of course, not the use of nuclear weapons, because one of the myths that immediately appeared in the context of the upcoming referenda. this is that, supposedly, this will give russia a reason to use or threaten to use tactical, but, because there are absolutely no conditions for use, firstly, moral and political , and secondly from a military point of view. russia allows the use of nuclear weapons. outside the nuclear context resulted in non-nuclear attacks by russia on several occasions. if russia sees the launch of ballistic missiles against itself and russia does not know what kind of warheads are nuclear or non-nuclear , or if a conventional non-nuclear war becomes

on such a scale that it threatens the very existence of the russian federation, there is no such thing here, at all, but no, no, no, no for a second. here i am, looking at russian military doctrine. uh, and here you are, but look at the last point - aggression against the russian federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened. that said well. so, if these territories become part of russia, and to be frank. and this is to say that the goal will not only take away from russia these territories, but at the same time to ensure that the collapse of russia goes further, so that it is so. decolonization of russia that was a fundamental change in russian political structures, but i don’t know, in my opinion, this could be

considered as a threat to the very existence of the russian state and i have two points here dmitry quickly the first i don’t think russia needs to use nuclear weapons now weapon. i agree with you that we have not yet reached the point where it could be justified from a military or moral point of view . points of view. well, i think that it would be strange for the russian countries to exclude such a possibility and give guarantees in advance that, whatever happens, russia will not do it for the second time. this is very important, and here ruslan can correct me, because there are indeed many more experts in the field of nuclear weapons than i do. well, it seems to me that there is a very big difference between the use of strategic nuclear weapons that lead to disaster and tactical nuclear weapons and e- e in

american military doctrine tactical nuclear weapons occupied a very honorable place and there was even a so-called doctrine about it being good. know how to develop a variant. you know why dmitry should use tactical nuclear weapons in the first place, in order to strengthen the deterrence mechanism and so that it would not occur to anyone to use strategic weapons against america. it seems to me that such logic could be understood today. weapons, if we had to use them in limited quantities and in a completely extreme situation , tactical weapons, where i am wrong, soviet. time there were three basic scenarios, the use of tactical nuclear weapons. simplifies yes the first is when there is a massive air or missile raid and you just fire from an anti-aircraft

missile system with special ammunition. well , how would you shoot from the sky, and at least some of those who attack you, the second is tactical ammunition, which, say, in a tulip. or somewhere and thrown into some e powerful fortified area. yes, which one needs to be stormed there or m-m. well, or do something with it, yes, subject it to no one to destroy one more - this is a tactical nuclear weapon. let's say anti-ship, when you need to drown an aircraft carrier. maybe there are other options out there? yes, and the application of this, because russia, on the one hand, keeps under seven seals information about its tactical nuclear weapons, and on the other hand, we know that russia is actively developing a number of special munitions for many types. uh nuclear weapons. some certain old people they say that in russia, well, except for hand-held nuclear grenades. no, yes, and most, but long-range systems. uh,

initially sharpened, including the illumination of ammunition. i, as a military expert, do not yet see scenarios for which this could be applied, i want to say one thing so that my position is clear. i am in favor of talking about nuclear weapons in order to strengthen deterrence and not use nuclear weapons and so that no one has the illusion that russia does not have such an opportunity to reduce the need for such actions as much as possible. well dmitry, of course, russia does not exclude anything, but the use of different weapons is envisaged at different levels of escalation and at different scales of the conflict, as long as the conflict is still limited to the former territories of ukraine, there are no prerequisites for the use of nuclear weapons. no, but these prerequisites may appear if there is a so-called horizontal escalation and the flow of this conflict to the level of russia and nato, but here i see significant risks

of such a spillover, if one of the reactions of the united states to the upcoming referendums is to increase arms supplies to ukraine , including the provision of those long-range missiles on which i absolutely agree with you. i think that we can have more difference in expressions than in absolute devotion. and that's what dmitry worries me here. this is what we are in terms of international security and russian american relations at a very difficult a turning point in a situation where there is no dialogue between our countries at the highest level, either at the ministerial level, or even at the working level. no at all. here pay attention, and when the news about the upcoming referenda appeared, immanuel macron tried to immediately contact president putin. yes, until president putin got in touch with much more important matters. he does not consider it necessary now to talk with the president of france, but nonetheless. i didn't see any movement from

the biden administration to pick up the phone. and how to call, and the president of russia, or at least to clarify what is really going on as further from the russian point of view. maybe a special operation will develop, that is, we are at a turning point in a situation of lack of dialogue. and that's it. this worries me in this situation. dmitry you agree. i agree there was such a person who summoned emperor sigismund. it was back in the middle ages, and he had a conflict with the pope and he spoke the language without uh weapons, who allows you to speak? and so that's where we started our conversation, what happens after this referendum will largely depend on russian military capabilities, and how russia's willingness to defend itself will be viewed and, uh, i think that's not right. we are about to escalate. uh, it gets harder before

it gets easier. uh, but i sincerely believe that, in general, ukraine and those who i steal, and you talked about it, left russia . well, of course, dmitry look how evolved the russian position russia, in principle, uses, well, what is called mess in english. it is ruled by resort yes, this is the last resort, and in this case, referenda are the last resort and the special operation has become the last resort. after all, back in 2014, and the situation was completely different at the beginning of the russian special operation. the question was about the recognition of crimea as part of the russian federation and the recognition of the donetsk lugansk people's republic as independent sovereign states. ukraine under pressure from the west categorically refused these conditions and the situation changed. now we

are creating a new reality. and the most important thing that seems to me to happen, and in the coming days is the creation of a new geopolitical reality to significantly influence, on which there is no evidence of the collective west by political methods, sanctions, rhetorical methods, we agree. you know the multipolar world has really arrived, but this is not just some kind of cruise. yes, there was a bipolar world, unipolar now multipolar. it means that everyone in this multipolar world, if necessary, is ready to defend their interests with weapons in their hands, and then only a question. whoever has this sword or knife is longer and sharper, yes, and who uses it more, uh, actively uses it, therefore, in principle, we have entered into this. well, what about the new middle ages and what seems terrible to us? yes, but in fact, for all such a macrohistorical thing, war has always been a continuation of foreign policy. and the fact

that over the course of let's say 30 years. they weren't all that active. although the united states after the end of the cold war, and almost 20 times e. yugoslavia begins the armed force there yes, and ending with the invasion of iraq , therefore, unfortunately, we must understand that what is happening now russia was forced to do this in order to extinguish the hostility of ukraine, of course, in order to resolve this conflict in order to end this conflict and, of course, the stakes . now grown russia will now defend its territory and the imbalance between the priority of this issue for the united states and the priority this issue for russia grew even more . dmitry ruslan nikolayevich thank you very much for this interesting conversation. we drew in a few moments and then continue. what

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with a fixed rate of 8.9 each is an opening. the big game is on the air the most likely reaction of the west of the united states and the european union to the upcoming referendum in the donetsk and luhansk people's republics in the kherson zaporozhye region will certainly be sanctions some options for introducing new sanctions are already being discussed and are already being called in the european union, by the way, the european union announced that that they will prepare a new package of anti-russian sanctions and e in the united states and here is called and the introduction of new technological restrictions and sanctions against the world map and the energy embargo. oddly enough, although it seemed like they were no longer ready to strengthen their sanctions, and in the field of, in the field

of energy, and so on. but, what do you think, and how much, well, is there still the potential for a qualitative buildup of anti-russian sanctions for just on it will definitely be from the outside. west and can these sanctions inflict on russia any additional economic damage? well, i have been saying for a long time that we need to stop focusing on the sanctions on their calculations on their qualitative quantitative analysis. and when we talk about how the west will react, i think this is also a topic that makes no sense. today, we are well aware that today, through the hands of our leadership, supported by the majority of the population, a completely new concept of russia's participation in the new world order is being implemented, where russia already occupies and will occupy. i 'm leading positions where uh reaction of those who

have already destroyed everything that is possible in our relations with them, who have discredited themselves on the world stage, who have actually crossed out their own history, their opinion should not interest us. rather, it will probably be of interest only to specialists who will be engaged in the subsequent analysis of those steps that led to the destruction somehow for life, as it seems, of very serious economic and political powers there. in fact , they demonstrate something that even the name of a power or a state is unworthy, because they destroy everything that forms and should form the foundations of the universe, so you need to stop talking about it and focus on what you should focus on. i think most of the population. we have military specialists . these words have already been heard here and we are waiting for the president's speech. but this, in my opinion, is also a logical development of the events that are taking place in our country. but, if we

are talking in the economy that war has been declared on us by these countries. we list them, we understand where we have weak spots are not enough, and we understand the tools that need to be applied to overcome all this and do all this and understand the scale. these are aggressions, and they do not hide their desires and goals to destroy our country both economically, ideologically and militarily. we understand all this and take retaliatory measures and focused on creating a mechanism not for countermeasures, but for the revival of russia so that it takes its rightful place and precisely in the current conditions, then why should we discuss their reaction? yes , we are not interested. we are wondering how solutions are moving forward in the economic sphere, and how we do not overcome the sanctions. and how do we create the prerequisites for them to be there? everyone apologized, uh, felt uncomfortable that everything they do against our country turns against them, and we are moving in the right direction. well, i completely agree that i am

interested in their reaction in form, but it seems to me that their reaction in content is important for us. what combination of tools will they apply to us, because i completely agree with you. they are announced to us and are waging a hybrid war against us is an important component. which is an economic war and completely agrees with you, and the goals are existential yes for and and for us and for them , they do not hide that the final goal of this hybrid war is either what is now in the united states, even in leading magazines , is called the decolonization of russia, then there is its territorial dismemberment, or at least the removal of russia from the great powers, and moreover, without return, and they use certain tools for this. and since we are in war, hybrid warfare is also war. we need to understand what the enemy has, what potential he has, what kind of mobilization potential he has. what is the reserve potential? what

tools? what kind of weapons he will use here and here, this must be understood. in war, as in war, and, of course, we need to analyze the likelihood that it will be used against us in order to, we can use almost everything and designate it there. it's hard to find something special, you know, sanctions are terrible when they cripple you, if you don't have time to adapt, here we see how yugoslavia resisted at that time, but at some point airan weakened greatly and learned to adapt to a large extent. therefore, if we are, relatively speaking, enough iranians, then we will succeed. there is one more point, it is very important that the society should be ready. yes, that's why the serbs fought and did not give up, without a fight. they had the experience that they did not have a national state, and they were according to the turks, the russians believe and the russians are wider, that this is our state before the new from god, since the time of ivan iii we have always had our own state. no, it’s not a fact, you have to fight for it, so every citizen of our country must

understand that now he has come at a time when you need to ask yourself what you can do for your country, they ask, like for the last 30 years, what a country can do for you catherine and a small remarque in relations and in relation to the european union and a few. and the serbs had a look at the national state and the question of how much they lost at the end of the 20th century under under the pressure of sanctions, it is tied not only and not so much to sanctions, but to a deep economic crisis, but also to the state of decay that it was in, and federal yugoslavia on the eve of the collapse and, accordingly, the collapse, of the single national economic complex that yugoslavia represented itself turning it actually into e, a combination of serbian and montenegrin, and in the end, of course, this produced a complex of them. uh, a significant effect is poison, but i fully share the point of view of alexander mikhailovich that a is necessary to a lesser extent, and

to pay attention to the quantitative and qualitative set of sanctions, but at the same time to a greater extent to pay attention to what goals, and their internal development, the european union sets. and imposing these sanctions. and uh, trying to a reformat its internal foundations. now everything is changing. we are changing the european union is changing china and the general idea of ​​this change. this is the provision of technological sovereignty in one form or another yes, and the provision of technological transition. the eu has the same task a and to be fair, we can, with some irony, watch their internal discussions of strife, but, but, an attempt to regroup now to consolidate the european union. they started quite a long time ago, and last year. from may 21 until the end of april 22, there was a big conference on the future of europe, which actually, as it were, is

laying this attempt today, and more and more often we are announcing the transition from a voting inside to a. unified a consensus to a-a transitions of foreign and security policy, but from a transition from consensus to abolish the vet and move to simple majority voting. yes and in many respects such decisions and the basis for these decisions were provided by this traditional institutional mechanism of the european union a during this conference on the future of europe where the expert community was involved in a huge number of caring citizens, and so on and so on, who, as a result, issued these documents undoubtedly. and it's probably not the time for this program to simply be ours to discuss how risky this plan is. and well, this is, and those cards that are on the table, but they are thrown, and brussels has a certain substrate, but there is a certain backing for

the implementation of such a strategy, and this is the ability to apply positive administrative mechanisms with punishment. in relation to those members of their community that is not loyal to the decision of brussels and this is at least 700 already available 750 billion euros, but to ensure structural reforms. and it’s clear that, as of now, we are most touched by the question of abolishing the potential of this relationship. key in foreign policy, a and sanctions must be understood that here tactical tactical and consolidating forces are, of course, today anti-russian propaganda and anti-russian idea, but strategic a these intentions go much further. and this is also an anti-chinese company, and in this sense, the european union is now at stake no less in relation to its

essence and future, as it were. and what was put , including by us? this is where i would like to get a hold of it. uh, for what you said, and to me. it seems that the european union, trying to achieve some tactical opportunistic results for itself, calls into question its own nature in general, its own prospects, as a union of states, the model in accordance with which the european union has developed so far. but yes, you are right they said, indeed, but the need for the expediency or the adoption of new sanctions against russia is in favor. what now, of course, will work both the united states and the euro bureaucracy and the desire of the european union as at least not to allow the abolition of those sanctions that have already been introduced. eh, everything is against russia. it's over again. here it rises. a new wave of discussion about the abolition of rights. the state has a veto of

foreign and security policy polls, because sanctions are an area of ​​foreign and security policy, this idea is not today. she appeared promoted by olaf-scholz. uh, the german chancellor recently had his keynote address at charles university. he spoke about this, however, in relation to the expansion of the european union, but here it is already applied on the edge of russian politics. here. er, today, anna luhrmann -- it 's the german minister of state for european affairs, said that it's most likely a matter of waiver. the veto will be discussed at the next meeting of the european union foreign ministers sometime in october, but listen here is the right, the veto on foreign and security policy. this is the last symbol and instrument of state sovereignty, which remains with the member countries and is now offered to them. for the sake of the opportunistic issue of tightening or not

weakening anti-russian sanctions faces this last tool from the symbol of sovereignty. to be honest, i'm not convinced that most of the member countries are european. union i'm not talking about hungary, which, by the way, categorically opposes the tightening of anti-russian sanctions. poland, which is now seeking to impose its own sovereignty on other countries of the european union, is even claiming german em, reparations and so on. well, even such countries how france is about to rush to give up this last symbol of its sovereignty. i objected to dmitry vyacheslavovich, in fact, the idea, just the promotion of franco german and the movement of consolidation. geopolitically geostrategic today is the most convenient moment as well, despite the fact that even if we look, but the population surveys and support. yes, the policy pursued by the european union it will not be overwhelming. but at the same time, it will be very high. this is above 52-50-3%, which is a lot for any

layout, and then the question. he basically stands, and not about how to but tactically unite in order to inflict the maximum blow on us, but in the end. well, this is my inner feeling. yes , the question is about, but in order for a to consolidate and make a very complex reform that they started with all means, well, rather skeptically perceived by us decarbonization. there, without waste production, consumption, and so on and so forth, but these reforms require incredible, internal consolidation. effort. they are they are trying to provide it with accessible methods , whether it will work out or not, we will see. but these are methods, you know, such a liberal one. this is litarism. yes, you are against anyway we will force you to join. remember we will break for a short commercial and continue in a few moments. on the 350th anniversary of peter the great, andrei the first-called

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