this is to get it time to sing it, but now. on saturday, even tuesday, i like to sit on the balcony with my elbows, but the windowsill and the whole world are in the palm of my hand. everything to the smallest detail. i remember until they drive me away the whole world in the palm of the hand the whole world in the palm of your hand, parking lot, construction site, garages, an old pond, a lot of some kind of dachas they burn puddles all the time that do not dry, for a whole year and around a layer of mud bushes, trees bushes , i got it all out. and there behind it i know, there is a field exactly. i saw him through binoculars. it is huge. and what about this field you need to go there or ride a bike? the main thing is that the parents do not recognize, and there, behind this field, lies simply the world. after all, i plan to see everything and i will definitely vomit. so much you need to behave well. i will do my homework. i

'll take out the trash. i will wash the dishes, and then to where the mountains of the river are waiting. i will definitely come to them with sandwiches in my briefcase. during the day i will look at the clouds, and at night i will not get lost at the cosmos. i have my dad's compass. if you met that boy. you could look into his eyes, if he saw beyond the river, where you, so he said. of course, you could also invite your older brother. but i don’t think that he will go, he is unlikely to stick out all the time. there, in this institute of his own,

he says it's boring, but there is nowhere to go from this horror. but i'm not going to do what i don't want to. i will always do only what i want, i will not complain about my hard fate. and if something goes wrong, i'll come up with something in adulthood , they say a lot of difficulties. well, let me be very patient, i have achieved my goal and be sure i will see the ocean of the colosseum pyramids, i will have a house, and the house will be full of friends. mom, dad, brother, everyone will live with me. i know nothing like this will happen to us, but just in case, i'll learn karate to protect them and even the most terrible bullies will pray for mercy, if you met the boy.

i could look into his eyes, if he saw the river, where did you go, so that he would say, and around the house there will be trees and flowers, but you don’t need to plant anything in the garden, the flowers will be the best field b. i will be every day collect and give dasha from the fifth b. she will be so beautiful, her hair is a beaded dress. there, she doesn't know about it yet. it's too early for her to pass it, but i've already decided everything. she will become my wife. why should she be thrown off and there are others , but i can clearly see all the other girls compared to dasha, the spaces are painted. i see it’s taken off, only give it to me and it’s smart, kind, and she lets me write off my homework, grandma says

everything will come down like water off a goose, no, grandma. i am getting married and will not divorce me from others. you don't have to have five or 90 of them. i love dasha. it's the same just if it's to meet that kid, look into his eyes to make him say. oh, and saturday, even though tuesday i like to sit on the balcony with my elbows, but the window sill and the whole world in the palm of your hand are everything to a trifle. i remember until they drive me away the whole world

in the palm of my hand the whole world in the palm of my hand, parking, construction of garages, an old pond, peaceful palms, the whole world in the palm of my hand, you just need to be good the whole world must be the whole world in the palm of the hand the whole world in the palm of my hand. here you are, the audience drove us into a nostalgic mood. everyone had something like that and everyone was such a boy or a girl, it's autobiographical, it's maximal. yes, and who is your dad, he has nothing to do with the creative profession, dad worked. uh, at some thermal power plant, my mother worked at the plant for 30 years. those glass. in saratov there is a plant with technical glass, which made everything probably, what

can be done from glass, glassware , chandeliers for cars. eh, and so on. i have an older brother. this is exactly what he is. he is a journalist. in general, so far. yes , dear friends, we must tell everyone who deliberately stops at one child and thinks that those he does the best by himself, in the way that everything is better get it to this only child. you will have to share a scary mistake when a person has an older brother. he is the happiest, because from his older brother he comes, the bass guitar discs are flared jeans and, of course , the older brother, it was a very approach to the girls, well, i didn’t learn to get acquainted with the girls, but we opened music with him. e together, as if we were discovering the world of rock music. no, not the beatles at first was nirvana of course ah. it was right there heavy music, then it was metal, then

there was sepultura, and then we decided a little, we bought a book, where is the anthology. well, in general , all the rock bands of history, there and so on, and we are by description. eh, they understood that, probably, this is what i want to hear, and then we went to me to some kind of saratov humpback. and do you have this and there we are exactly which album is recommended, there we bought black and purple and everything that made our parents. so it can be quieter. it seems quieter to do here, you can not listen to this coffin for some reason. i don't know also somehow they endured nothing. although i have. well, just now nirvana came to me from exactly when, even when she should come, apparently i was 13, in my opinion, or 14 years old. in the summer i opened the window of the tape recorder to the fullest and put on some most terrible song, where it’s just even where he just yells and there’s nothing there, i kind of know that

he lives here. here is a person who listens. that's the kind of music, and not what you have there, and that was the nineties. everyone there was listening to different music the time you told your parents that you go, the actors they told you, so put the plovfak here. went best of all lawyers always live. here you are, law school. put it later, go lockers, wherever you want, even though there wasn’t a clown like that, there wasn’t such a thing either, the doctor, of course, understood that vasya, of course, they saw in me. with the desire to do something like this, but they didn’t take it seriously. and when i finished school, i ended up pretty bad. i would have some. well, he certainly wasn't perfect. at best, i had almost all fours, but sometimes slipped one other trio. they spoke, with such assessments. you won’t get into a normal university and they will take you to the army and you won’t actually survive there, so you need to be told to go to the culinary school oh lord, because you

will receive a chef’s diploma and you will go to the army already as a cook, and you will already be in the kitchen. and this is a different attitude towards you there you will cut that's all and i think so, well, mom, as you say, i went to the culinary entered. and it wasn't difficult to have a fantasy, because with my level of knowledge. i was a genius there, and i entered easy but unlearned for 2 1/2 months and we came to the assembly to see what was happening there from other parents. and then she asked me a question. and you generally like it there, and i told her no, and they sent me back to school. it was after ninth grade. brought back to school. i graduated tenth eleventh, and they, when my parents told me that you know, then we tried to participate in our destiny somehow to direct you there, but now he does what he wants. and i saw. i entered the university. i took

english courses. i wanted to go into journalism. actually, too, and saratov state and i began to take exams there. i passed one, and the second, uh, i didn’t come to the second, because in parallel. i, uh , gave the documents to the theater , for some reason they took me there, although i remember myself. i would n't take myself. well, you're crazy, probably, the future also determines your present, like the past is this is the old samurai. here, okay. and now we are here. we are still would like to listen to something else in the next and thank you for your attention to the anthropology podcast on the first see you again. problems from worries jump jump from hood to hood, run, run, hippopotamus, run

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hmm hello this is the easy money podcast, i 'm hosted by mikhail khanov today we have maxim shane as our guest hello maxim hello, investment analyst and on our podcast. we deal with money related issues. where is it more profitable to invest, what is more profitable to do now? what to buy to sell and the most burning most important and most painful question for our audience is when to go to the exchange office, when to buy dollars, or maybe sell them, or maybe euros, and i also heard that now there is yuan, and with yuan

what, in general, what is it to buy, sell, and so on. and maybe even rupees and actually. the first question is what has changed in the twenty-second year. well, what awaits us on the twenty-third. and well, actually rephrases the question, when to keep in the exchanger and why? well, here's a counter question. i want to ask people. and what do you want from the currency? you want it to work, so that it doesn’t speculate, you don’t do anything, so that you can’t buy with it, yes, the foreign exchange market is a thing. well practically unpredictable. yes, that is, it's kind of like. it seems to me that a self-organizing system is something like how applause begins in the theater, everything starts in discord, and then once again and after some seconds. uh, everyone is clapping in unison and here is about the same, that is, he is not here, you can’t treat her. like what. here we are now saving up, thereby. who will ask. here is the tempo to weld somewhere. if someone wants, uh, to

profit from this. hmm, please, is there any one who can come up with some kind of strategy, yes, then yes, well, this will be a professional approach, a professional approach. eh, it's a completely different arrangement. it's all there is another question. by the way, i am often asked about the a e of a client. so i need to sell the currency, when is it better to do it today or wait, i answer. uh to this question, please, uh statistics in terms of probability. and if you wait one day the next day the chances are very high that you will be able to sell more, well, there is not much there by 0.2% yes, but if you wait 5 days, it will be a 50/50 chance approximately. well, it will converge there. eh, everything, that is the conclusion. eh, that's how to be guided by this here, but it's good. here is such advice. here's to your here to wait one day. let's still, let's really say that and since we are invading the field of exchange currency trading, trying to predict the course, after all , we cannot avoid some complex terms. and therefore, if

we have here is a chart of currency fluctuations, let's do this, i will say in the following way how life hacking is much more likely to fall into an up or down trend. how to guess this one peak. yes, it is called an extremum in mathematics. and that is, if you look at how the last one moves there. let's say the exchange rate, then with a high degree of probability, it will continue this movement for some time, rather than what you suddenly caught and hit right now. here in this turn. well, it can be considered so, you can use mathematics. i tell a lot of my friends to eat, uh, insanely simple strategy. how to make money in the foreign exchange market? uh, well, that is, here's a head-on approach, yes, and during the day there are four opening prices in the foreign exchange market, that is, according to the e rate, e , at which trading began, the maximum during the day , the minimum and e, closing, and the probability that e the maximum value will be higher than the opening of 97%, then you need to build

a strategy. so yes, what do we buy in the morning at the opening price? yes, and we bet on how much higher it was not sold. we close the position at the closing price. so we write life hacks for the audience, take papers, take pens and write down the following that is, if we decide. a professional approach to this, then we follow the auction exactly how it will work. that there we follow the open for the price during the closing day it takes time, of course. well, as the classics say, it is important to understand that stock speculation is a job like any other. and as soon as you stop counting in this work, you will very quickly lose, so to speak , the fault of the book memoirs of a stock speculator. well, that is, you will simply lose your deposit, of course, for ordinary people, maxim, here, returning to the very beginning of our conversation. let me formulate the question no jokes here. and if we say specifically about the airbag, yes, that is , from the amount that we have and covers. well i love the numbers, there's six to 12 months of spending for

your average family. now, if we take six 12 months there, then it is more profitable to form an airbag in the twenty-third year and the correct one can be based on forecasts. in what currency other than the ruble, if you take something other than? ruble it can only be yuan, for one simple reason, if you just buy currency, yes, then it will be on the balance. uh, take a rather large commission from it, he, well, professional participants with whom you will open an account, that is, yes, therefore it will be unprofitable. in addition , as you know, e on the currency, and on the american dollars there is , e, in recent years, significant inflation. and here she will, uh, shamelessly corrode uh, a deposit of 6% per year of something. sorry semi-professional question. yes, you think that inflation in the united states in the united states was defeated by the actions of the fed, that is, this decline that we observed, let me remind you that back in the fall, at the very beginning of inflation, it was more than nine percent. and now we are taking

the states of the daniers of europe there, while there are 10 there, since she remained. and now, in fact , by monetary actions alone, that is, actions are just regulators and rates, but they raised the rate. right now, inflation is six and a half consumer price index, and this downward movement is already stable, or inflation will slow down here. here is your opinion. what kind of inflation should slow down will still be here. well, at these levels for about a year and uh, in general, according to history, if you look , the american central bank has always had to raise the rate of refinanced interest rates in the country in order to defeat inflation above five percent. uh, above the inflation rate. now they have not done this and have not done it in the markets and joy. i think it's all over, but the experience of, uh, any uh crises, there are features of the seventies. e, it shows that inflation first rises and then decreases, it seems that everyone is happy, but

then it comes again. what is inflation in china and china's inflation. i do not remember what, well, interest. i think there are three four there is small, yes, yes, still small. actually, that is, they wrote down that in 23 the airbag. we fore in yuan, where we store ah. well, of course, it is better to mark up in some papers not just to keep in yuan, but to place it in some kind of assets, well, in general , to keep the currency. but in principle, well, it doesn’t matter , it’s unprofitable. it is always direct in rmb is not an option. this is always a direct loss of money, but due to banal inflation, it’s good papers - these are, and there are, uh, papers of russian companies, bonds in yuan. yes, they give a yield, somewhere from three to four percent of cancellations. uh-huh how long? that is, how much is a year two three five, if we take tools and our goal of savings, otherwise we take we say promotion, we take only savings products, that is,

those where we know in advance. how much we earn bond deposits, maybe some structural products by burning the protection of the structural guarantee mountain, however. they eat eat. here, uh, and everything up to one year, but only posting. in savings products here are respectively five, the longer the term. yes, the more we invest in investment products, for example, stocks, for example, we can buy them, they are available airbags in yuan, so we are stocks, which ones do we buy chinese or not necessarily? well, of course chinese companies are chinese companies obviously, yes, and how do they know which companies are good? what are the bad ones to ask? well, either you need the best way, yes, and this is to study these companies, but then again, it's already we are moving to retire into a professional thing. yes, and so you need to go, of course, to professional stock market participants who know and have analytics. well, that is, tests, yes, on

which at least something is possible. yes, at least something can be done further already to choose. as in medicine, i will only advise well with currency. well , let's say we figured it out, at least for this year. what to store an airbag in, and how to try to take off to save? what we have there savings we'll take that we put some kind of point, what do we have with the ruble, what happened to the ruble in the twenty- second year? yes, these fluctuations, how dangerous they are for the exchange rate of the national currency, because we all remember that we had an exchange rate there in february. until february, it was 60 there, then it rose to 70-70 with kopecks of the dollar against the ruble, then it was crazy order numbers, there are 120 and even 150 desperate heads in certain banks. they changed nights for weekends. i remember very well this week, then the rate went down to 120 for a while stayed around 110 further started to decline. these fluctuations decreased by half. yes, we observed the first figure five was our exchange rate and 56 these

fluctuations, and the next question is how they are how dangerous they are for the country and what predicted values ​​​​of the ruble exchange rate e we expect as an investment strategy in 23 . let's just say that the most unpleasant thing for the economy is not some kind of exchange rate. some of his level there 120 or 50 or there i don't know 75 for the economy. the most dangerous thing is very strong fluctuations, unpredictable so -called volatility. yes. uh, volatility, it interferes very much, because the business is forced to mortgage it. e in e their business models and is being laid. naturally, this is such a spread, and we all know very well that the prices of imported goods have jumped. uh, according to the course. so, when he went to 120, uh, when he went to 60 of course, no imported goods doubled hmm,

uh , in our country understand our audience to understand who feels good, when the courses e, 120 and who feel good, when 60 courses we have 120 good exporter. who are those who are the oilmen, those who are the products? they are sold abroad, of course , abroad, yes, they receive in foreign currency, and here, uh, they exchange, respectively, for while their costs for wages in production in rubles. well, they grow a little, of course, yes, they remain in rubles. and, of course, this is good for the russian budget, because, uh, forming a significant part of its income is formed just from export income, but here it is always profitable to convert them into rubles at the exchange rate. as much as possible weak in terms of the ruble. and who is interested in course 50? if only there was someone. there was someone who made money on this. who said, thank god that such a piece is chic, well, first of all, these are the so-called importers. this is who, in principle, i would say that

for the population, for those who travel abroad , of course, this is for them, but big pluses in one way or another for everyday life, but in the foreseeable period, they buy foreign currency, of course, they have a very strong national currency rate. very profitable because they are cheaper - spend less money now coming back to the state, after all, uh, let's not get away from the main question, what's with the course? yes, but as he says, well, what can i say? well, what can i say, this is how people want to know, want to know, want to know, which means what will happen, what will happen to the ruble. well, let's take february there. yes, there until the summer and until the end of the year. what forecast values ​​do you lay down for the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar, now we will not go into depth. i always look at what is called what the money is bet on. why are transactions made? here, uh, according to the so-called calculations, which will be in a year in half a year, so that people there, respectively, they all mean that the dollar will rise. uh, for this period in a year, about uh,

eight nine percent. that is, if now we have a course of 70, then 10-76, yes, 76, finally , the year of the year, yes. and it’s good, that is, in february we don’t expect any special movements in march. it is always e very difficult to predict, because if everything only depended on the volume of trades, so to speak, were determined yes only by importers and exporters and by those volumes, yes, which they sell and buy some other foreign exchange earnings. yes, of course, and who else would everything be fine, but there are also , uh, other interested people. yes, the cameras used to be more. these were, for example, speculators. uh, the so-called arbitrageurs. eh, i beg your pardon. yes, arbitrageurs are those who see instant prices do not match, but for the same products in different sites there, well, earlier there, for example, the prices for

sberbank shares in moscow and london, and if they usually see them there, these are robots algorithms. they see some discrepancy somewhere cheaper and more expensive. they sell right away. where it is more expensive , they buy where it is cheaper, because in the near future these prices will equalize, that is, in this way the market regulates itself. yes, and since we're already here. here in this area. i would like to ask a question. how are you now building currency trading, how much is it in general? are there 70 there, it seems that the central bank is also under sanctions, it turns out, it cannot trade currencies on the moscow exchange. eat. uh. the new budget rule implies in more detail that in the case when fixed income from the budget here is oil and gas. uh, oil and gas sales are in dollars or in rubles. yes, they are in rubles, of course, and the price is fixed accordingly. yes, while ah for oil. uh, the so -called cut-off price. yes, if uh, respectively , income, uh less, and then the ministry of finance, uh,

sells, and the currency on the market, if there is more income, but accumulated, uh, more, respectively, then buys. so it turns out that here he is, not exactly a balancing factor, but a very influential one. maybe now many heard that something is happening now within the framework of the fiscal rule with the yuan, what exactly? well, this is what anton sells , yuan, or whatever sells and buys depending on how the situation with the budget develops , you know, i have such a feeling . well, yes, professionally, they are selling by bidding, as if the dollar is the euro, that is , the yuan, which is being sold for some reason, it is growing here a couple of days ago there was a situation, and at the same time the euro dollar, which, well, no one has anything to do with them does not make them grow because they are connected through the so-called course. this is one time, and secondly, the volume is still the same, and although it has greatly decreased by 10 times in terms of the us

dollar, it is still about 60 billion rubles. in a day. that is, no, yuan, now the first 69 and there is this personal movement or also there is an invisible hand of someone, from experience i can say that a hand is felt. that's because something is happening, or a very strong movement, without, as it were, any news warnings and other factors, then, uh, the market literally freezes, that is there is some kind of elephant in the china shop, which breaks everything there. yes , it does not allow the dishes to stand quietly for us. yes, and not only his direct movement , uh, body movements cause significant changes in china shops, but his intention, uh, to make these movements already lead to the fact that the dishes start hmm let's write it down. uh, for our dear viewers and listeners, what is this called verbal or

verbal intervention, when only the words of those on whom it depends, whether the currency intervention will or will not be enough to to move the currency from its place, but here, i will give an example one of the greatest masters of verbal interventions is the head of the central bank of japan, kuroda, who manages to move the currency from 150 yen per dollar to 130 yen back and forth and, of course, causes delight, uh, then as without practically raising the rate. yes, because it will immediately kill the japanese economy, but let's not go deep , we manage to move the course. this is called verbal verbal or verbal intervention. i summarize this block of questions well, what course are you now see for the country. here is how the balance between importers and exporters, including for the state. yes, 75 is a rate, uh, which, well, about the average rate that we have observed over the past 7 years, which means that everyone is used to it. eh, the economy has adapted to this business, and

the consumer channel has also adjusted to this. starts up a new project in every corner of our vast country and has its own innovators and genius. master engineer or designer and not only are you going to launch your startup. do you have business ready production or advanced technology project. you have come up with something bearing a unique computer program or a non-standard concept of a restaurant. millions of people will know about your inventions. and we will help your dreams come true to us. send us write us write, we are grateful to millions

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this is an easy money podcast, i am its host mikhail khanov, and today we are talking with maxim sheyny, a financial analyst, an investment expert, about foreign exchange transactions. and not only raises the topic of de-dalorization. is it possible in principle, we say. here comes the topic setting a single currency for the brix countries, how likely is it, well, the possibility that trade relations between these countries may lead to the fact that the role of the dollar as the main reserve currency in the world will decrease, well, firstly, it is already decreasing. this is not the first year, and secondly, the dollar will leave the role of a global currency, especially a reserve one, and i think that currency zones will be formed. and in this sense, probably, russia does not make sense, uh , to create some kind of single currency from outside brix we have different economies, different currency zones. in principle, we are, uh, kind

of friendly countries, but still we are competitors among ourselves, competitors for uh, the transition to the next technological order, the so-called yes, for markets for consumers, and so on. yes, we will interact to trade with each other. but i think that our currencies will remain different, and it seems to me that this is correct, because investments. well, in order to do uh, the ruble must become a truly investment currency. yes, so that here there is not in dollars. maybe become must become must become, of course, and for this there is. e, in principle, all the possibilities. i think they just need to be tightened up as they say. yes, we all need to work better and we all need to develop. uh, uh technology, that would require some kind of credit monetary policy. i think changes, and in budgetary policy, and this is quite real, but now how russia

is getting rid of the rest of the world. yes, that is, where globalization is and how everyone sees it , they look at russia and actually. what do look china uh, chinese central bank. uh, other countries, they all buy america and africa, the central banks buy gold, alterna. there are banks bought 500 tons of gold, if my memory serves me right. it was the third quarter of last year. here is the growth of gold there from 1.600 there with kopecks to 1900 - this is the central bank of the world. yes, the share of gold in the reserves of central banks. started to grow. here are perennial perennial and gradually. yes, it is a gradual process so quickly do not enough gold falls in the world of gold production. then it should just gallop, if everyone is leaving the dollar for gold, and there is not enough gold, most likely, everything will be blocked, most likely, it will be so in the seventies there were two periods when gold grew very much in price.

in my opinion, once 15 times and the second time 5 times in the seventies and early 2000s, and each time this was accompanied by a very strong decrease in gold production in the world. and now we see that from 2019. it falls quite significantly the first bell plus production inflation. yes, plus inflation. ok then. what figures there horizon 5 years you see gold. well, i think it's two, maybe even three times the imitation of the horizontal. yes? the question was only written down so that it would not interfere with the forces behind this gold market. well, that is , all that bought gold and did not buy dollars. i think american minfi. and the fed will be very upset, the federal reserve system, if they see a flow from investments in well, the same, for example, treasuries, yes us bonds or currency, just a friend is rude to take the dollar into gold. i think uh

the actions of the american regulator will be immediately redirected in every possible way to prevent this from happening. well, i think if the americans, and i think, how would they understand. why, uh, the central role in the world a little bit. eh, now, i think they understand that. and if you look at who actually are the main holders of the long american, yes, then, if there, 30 years ago, it was mostly foreigners who were engaged in the most foreign legal entities, central banks, and there are some government funds, now they are us residents backup system hmm in person and so on. they are the main foreigners who have been quietly selling this for 7 years now. this process is underway china yes i remember the figures are approximately more than a trillion, in my opinion , they had 1.300 bonds on the balance sheet of the central bank, and according to the assessment it was now , in my opinion, they have less than a trillion, well, 1.300

trillion 300 is now less than a trillion . that is , this decrease is 20% more. yes, there are 20 more than 30. yes? yes actually. what else besides gold? that's where else the central banks of the world in such here in volumes of hundreds of billions of dollars they can find themselves. well, it's a good hiding place. yes, there is some other asset , something other than gold, that it is not bitcoins, well , there are no other options, and including, by the way, the situation with russia when our international reserves were blocked. she gave. actually accelerated, only this process. everyone understood that, in principle, their reserves, which they hold in foreign american states, can be blocked in such a situation. nobody wants to get hit. the only thing you can't do here make er sharp gestures here no one can take a friend there and let's sell for a trillion. here for a banal reason. you just need to find a buy for her, and there are a lot of them, since there are many sellers of buyers - this