eh list several behavioral, so -called deviations, yes, in decision-making, by the way, you had a podcast with anton suvorov, the rector of resh, and he is a scientist in the field of behavioral economics, very detailed behavioral ec, so i recommend everyone to watch it, there is also a lot about this, the main thing i wanted to say, in this part - this is about anchoring, how my counterparties will deceive me, let's go , yes, how they will deceive you, there is in finance, the so-called compound interest. yes, this is when what comes in, well, this is when, let me for ours i will explain, as a banker, a former one, there are no former bankers, this is when the interest, which, if the bank, let's say, charges you interest monthly or daily, but let's not go into the details of monthly, then at the end of the month you do not take this interest, either voluntarily or forcibly, but they are charged to the account and the interest for the next month already goes to ...

together with the interest that was received for the first, accordingly, after the second month you already receive a higher interest due to the fact that the amount has grown by interest, with each this amount becomes more and more every month, more and more, by the way, in a year it turns out, let's say, if the initial rate was 10% - well, with a monthly payment, then if you accumulate compound interest monthly, then in a year you will get interest, probably, how much, 12, 13, 14, yes, so just off the top of my head, yes, and if... the period is shorter, a week or a day, then it increases colossally, yes, and okay, if we are talking about a deposit, if the interest is added to the body of the deposit, if it is added to the body of the loan to your debt, then here you can be deceived, and why does this happen, why is it easy to be deceived when you are shown the formula for calculating compound interest, because we calculate using -

simple - visualization, well yes, visualization, it is no coincidence that the number five, yes, this is the number of fingers on the hands, the key in calculations, yes, this is called heuristics, that is, what we use instead of an exact method, when we solve a problem, it looks like this, we will estimate the answer, we will see that it is less or more than the correct answer, here is our estimate, let's make an amendment to the side, in which -

immediately large numbers went, yes, and it happens, on average people say 2,000, yes it happens, why does this happen, well because now multiplying yes from left to right we get 8 x 7 = 56 at 6, so it's complicated - and approximately, but still the answer will be wrong, but more, but what is important, if a strategic agent is playing against you. yes, the bank that wants to sell you this to put an anchor in another place, and wants to show that well, the loan is not so terrible, look, we are dealing here so, when we have the multiplication of increasing numbers - with something like compound interest, and it will show you the product of the top line, so that having estimated, you think, well, it’s not so bad, there’s about 512, so i have to pay, firstly, people here... make a mistake, and secondly,

opponents, counterparties can shamelessly use this, but i think that the theory has been well studied at the central bank, that’s why now the central bank obliges all financial... agents, banks, insurance companies, everything that is connected with collecting money for the services of these organizations from the population, indicate the final answer, that is, in our example, that is, all financial organizations are obliged to show that it is 40.320, but not 500, yes, if you know the history of russia, it was a constant conflict, illiterate people are not able to - imagine how much they will have to pay in the end when they come, i don’t know, to a pawnshop. yes, to some kind of - a buyer - a usurer - and then it turns out that they did not receive the money, they still owe, well, you you know, a classic example of this is the problem of the indian

mathematician, when he came to the rajah, brought him a chessboard, showed it to him, he admired the beauty of the game and said: "well, what do you want for your game, ask for whatever you want, the game is so deep, it..." he said: well , please give me one grain for the first cell, two grains for the second cell, four for the third, cells, as we remember, 8x8 64, he says: yes, i got it, i got it, i got it, i got it, that's it, go, i'll bring you your bag of grain now, like, well, when i passed there it's already lunchtime, evening, the sultan, he called his servants, he says, well, what have you paid the scientist, he says, your highness, yes now the court mathematicians are working here... they are calculating this number, and he was then indignant, when they showed him the calculations, there are some quadrillions, that is, conventionally speaking, the whole planet does not produce this grain in a year in order to pay off these crazy numbers, this then shows how this progression, which de facto is, well, that is , this is a short example of what i

told what figures it can result in and really, when you take out a loan or you, our respected listeners and viewers, when you apply to a microfinance... on small ones in a week, in a day, they actually grow those figures that seem to you to be huge numbers, so be careful, be careful, do not let your attention be fixed on significantly smaller figures than if they really are, so further a good example, okay, we are now moving on to game theory, yes we see not only that we... make mistakes, and the fact that others can use and abuse this, the next lesson i would like to explain, yes, is how it is worth considering the behavior of other people in difficult situations, it is very interesting, for example, i can immediately add that it is

interesting when you participate in some kind of auction, that is, let's say, you either buy or sell an apartment, you are a participant in such a process, you... buy or sell shares, bonds, including yes, there, outside, for example, the stock market glass, if those who understands what i'm talking about, that is, a transaction that is not directly on the stock exchange, but face to face, yes, when you negotiate, there are several participants in the sale of a block of shares or bonds outside the stock exchange, that's the type, and you participate in an elementary, i don't know , choosing a life partner, yes, yes, yes, now alexander will tell us examples of how game theory helps, among other things, to choose the right life partner, but first things first. what evidence do anti-doping agencies have regarding camilla valieva. the problem is in collecting evidence, if you have evidence, let us know. there is a frank confession here, no evidence. they do not understand what

to do with it at all. how the americans dictate the rules to the entire world of sports. we have always encouraged wada to cooperate more honestly with our fbm. and also, how american boxing wants to take. the initial decision was to exclude all fighters from russia, an exclusive exposure of the sports behind the scenes of the west in a new prank from vavan iledzhsa. antifake, season premiere, tomorrow on the first. k oleg baselashvili's ninetieth birthday. my god, you're so handsome, well, that's compared to me. i 'll punch your face in. they say you can't out-act children and animals. you can't out-act baska either, don't ask for anything, never and nothing, how could it have been played, i still can't understand, he dances as he should, sings as he should, he does everything, let's drink to my wife's happiness, if it weren't for galya, i would n't be here, well, the way i

feel now, my mother was a famous person, my father was a budding artist then, then oleg role, role, role, and each one is better than the other, talented, attractive and as a man. and the actor, he is divine, you seriously call me a great artist, what are you worthy, drinks to the bottom, premiere. documentary on saturday on the first. this is the easy money podcast, and i am its host mikhail khanov, and we continue our conversation about how games, or rather game theory, help us make the right financial decisions. let's start with the so-called problem of the picky bride, right away, yes, what this task models, and imagine that you are - in search of some good offer, no, let's say i'm a bride, yes, let it be so, let's say i'm a bride,

i have 100, yes, you have a queue of 100 grooms, you need to choose the best one, this means that you want - with the greatest probability to get the very best of them, and i just know, i heard about this task, if you choose not the best one, then it is considered that you lose, that is, you need to choose. the best one , yes, everything is there, let me put it in simple language to say, all, all the grooms are comparable to each other, all - this word is transponential, yes, in my opinion, when, transitively, yes, when we have, and if the first is better than the second, the second is better than the third, then the first is better, better than the third, yes, that is, everyone can be conditionally ranked, everyone can be lined up, all in some absolute sense, better or worse. so how to choose the best one, when they are all mixed up, there they are suitable in turn and how? yes, let's talk about growth, you want to choose

the tallest, here you are the bride, no, i want choose the best one, i can see it by height, by the totality of quality, well, okay, let it be, let it be, but what is important is, like in life, you see a proposal, you see a groom, and you must either agree now or refuse and then you will not see him again, yeah, many processes in life are arranged like that, almost all of them. and now the question is, how should you act from the point of view of mathematics and game theory? from the point of view of mathematics, game theory, from the point of view of what is the optimal strategy, you can of course look at everyone, but that means you will have to take the last one, all the possibilities of the game, yes we will take the last one, unfortunately, maybe you will take one of the first, but then you have to miss, you have to miss all these opportunities, you will never see them, and apparently somewhere there is a golden mean, some number. you need to look through the suitors, understand approximately yes, what you are dealing with, what

kind of suitors there are in general, then from the remaining ones choose the best one, one, one, yes, but i can only choose him right away, because in fact, the task comes down to the following formulation: algorithm, yes, here is the algorithm of the action, that is, i am some number, i am like a bride, that is why i speak in the feminine gender, i have to look through some number of suitors directly.

seven we say is great, 37 we don’t take, we just write them down, thirty-eighth, if he is better than all thirty-seven, we take him, simply by probability, i will explain what is the value of this task, in each specific case you can make a mistake, that is, game theory as a probability theory, this is a theory applicable to a large number of events, that is, in each specific case it can be the best groom came first or third or 30 seventh, and you missed him, but if you have such choices of viewings there will be a thousand, then with a probability very close to 100% you will choose the best groom according to

this scheme, how to apply this in some other life situations, because choosing from trainees does not happen often in our life, but imagine, you are selling an apartment, you say put a price of 10 in the ad, well, some high 10 million rubles 10 million rubles, you receive an offer, well, you indicated, maybe torkumestin and you ...

who offered you nine at the beginning, and you game theory, how will the buyer act, he was refused, how will he act, well it depends, you know, i'll tell you now, as an economist, as a financial expert, it depends on the situation on the market, is it a seller's market or a buyer's market?

here you get several offers, one after the other, but worse than what was at the beginning, yeah, and you understand that you have collected enough information and now you will accept the next good offer, that is, you need to , so to speak, abstract yourself from the price of 10, which i put at the beginning, it turns out, having collected an offer, those same 37 shenyakhs, and the first one better than all these, i have to agree to it, yes, ah, but just keep in mind that... these last offers could have come from the same buyer, one, that is , it was us, it could have been friends, and so real estate agents do this, if they see that some - some apartment, a real estate property has been lying around on the market for a while, they understand that the seller is waiting, he has not yet assessed the demand, they send him several offers, bad enough to create a cumulative effect, yes-yes-yes, to

create expectations in him - regarding demand, so... the seller understands that well, i 've looked enough, waited enough, received many offers, and now comes the offer that was better or similar, like one of the first, well, and then i agree to it, so, you put it at 10, the first buyer offered nine, you refused, and then different different offers came that were worse, then this one came again a person offered nine, and then you agreed, but you need to take into account that your opponents could have played strategically against you so that you would become more talkative and sell for nine. i would like to add a little more of this systematic explanation about how people make decisions, so that we understand where else we can be deceived, what is this, this is the so-called prospect theory, economic psychology, you could say, about how we rejoice or

how we are upset when we receive something, some kind of acquisition we have, or when we lose something? what is drawn here in the picture on the horizontal axis, from left to right, on the left we lose something, if we go to the left of zero, on the right we gain something, on the vertical axis - this is how we emotionally react to this, well , it is clear, if we gain something, then we are happy, if we lose something, then we are upset, respectively, the green red curve, but what is important, at zero there is a break in this curve, that is, some kind of acquisition. brings us joy, but loss equivalent, brings us much more grief, that is, it goes under different slopes, from the same absolutely in absolute value of losses or acquisitions, the joy of acquisition is less than the grief from loss, although it would seem that according to the module of these values ​​there are numbers, they are equivalent, why is this an evolutionary trait of man, and not only

man, such experiments were built and ... were left on animals, this makes us intolerant of great risk, we do not want to make decisions that will result in losses for us, we are a loss, not that actually ours our evolution, our development, our psyche, protects us from losing anything at all, that is, any loss is perceived, well, multiple, not multiple, there is a graph there, what was drawn there is not multiple, but there is one and a half , two times stronger than an equivalent gain. precisely in order to really protect against a big risk. usually it is considered twice, yes. this is the easy money podcast, and i, its host mikhail khanov, and we continue on... a conversation about how games, or rather game theory, helps us accept correct financial decisions, now how can this be used in the market? imagine

that you came to the store with your child, you see a toy, an expensive toy, it costs, well , let's say, let me tell you the problem this way, that is, you tell your child, darling, we are going to the store now, you behaved well, you studied well, here is a gift for you for 300 rubles, choose any and sees a toy or some item that costs 3,500 rubles. and says, there is mom or dad, there are my dear parents, well, please add 500 rubles to me. i really want this particular toy, but when you talked about these rules of the game, you say to the child, dear, we talked about three, we have a budget, consider that there is simply no physical money, no, we work within the framework of three, here is the seller, he plays, we will now tell you there what he did, he says that my dear customers, it was not in vain that your child paid so much attention to this toy, because in fact all these days and months this toy

cost us 10,000 rubles, but literally just a few days ago and the price went down and we have a promotion only now it costs 3 and a half, that is, for a toy that cost 10,000 you can buy either an item for 3 and a half and that in fact this is the same anchoring, yes, i understand correctly. yes, what happens at this moment, if you do not buy this toy, before you found out that it cost 10, supposedly, yes, ah, you seem to have saved 3,500 rubles. this is good, you are happy about it. now that you found out that it cost 10, suddenly, you seem to have missed the opportunity to save 6,500 rubles. right? what cost 10, you would have bought for 3.5, but you did not do this, so you did not save these 6,500 rubles. and this will now be perceived as a loss, not only did you lose 65 rubles, but losses

cost, bring much more bitterness than an equivalent purchase, that is , this is exactly what all sellers, all retail chains, all stores play on when they set a deliberately high price, cross it out, then put an attractive price tag today, speaking and focusing our attention not on how much we spend and how much we didn't spend, and showing the lost profit. the toy didn't cost 10,000, now imagine, it cost 3 and a half all its life. this is just an experienced seller, he sells it this way. so, what other numbers are there, here are, or rather, examples, what are there, when igor's theory helps us to bargain correctly, to behave correctly in situations, there, for example, the same, auctions, sometimes we have to.

somehow act strategically and against a situation where not our opponent, but a competitor of our interests, now let's look at can do the same, and we will make mistakes, well, or not make them, having listened carefully to what we talked about, right? i now want to talk about competitive procedures, in finance - these are some market procedures, auctions or it doesn't matter, any, any procedure where a change in price is involved and the participants in the process themselves offer the price, and the general thesis is this: if you won this procedure, it means that the victory in it was not so valuable for others, and this means that the victory may not be so valuable for you. and this is me i heard, this is the curse of the winner - it's not from here, it's called the curse of the winner,

yes, it is observed in cases when several participants compete for some, let's say, an auction for the purchase of a painting, i'm now specifically taking an example that may be far from ordinary life, but then you yourself extrapolate it, but an example that will be clear to everyone, let's say there are 10 buyers of a painting at an auction, yes, it is important that the value of this painting is the same for everyone, but they have not yet... an expert assessment in the ear said from his art critic, and now the task is to conduct this auction correctly, so as not to win it, yes, as we said, we will now understand

why, although for me this is also for now. what our expert told us, and let's assume that we accept that all 10 received 10 signals, and the true, let's say, price is in the middle, as always, yes, the truth is in the middle, and this is the average median value, let's assume that i get there, let's assume that everyone, everyone received signals from zero to 50, we immediately reveal our cards, millions of rubles, the price of the painting, i specifically

as one of these ten. buyers received signal 20 from their counterparty, an art expert, how to behave correctly in this situation, and pay attention, our dear listeners and viewers, i don’t know either the number 50 or the number zero, well, i can guess, i only know the number 20, what they told me, here they brought it on a piece of paper under great secrecy, yes, that’s absolutely right, while your assessment can be both the maximum and the minimum, you don’t know it yet, but then the auction begins, and you see, our auction is going up. this is so, we start from zero, while everyone continues to participate, the price goes up, as soon as there is one left who is ready to continue participating, then the auction stops at this price, he is the one who is cursed, because he is the winner, so the signal that you received is 20, let's say, when the auction started, the first participant left at zero, that is, well, the picture according to his assessment was a fake, that is, you should already pay attention to this and you should record for yourself that the left border is... this is

zero, your strategy in this auction is then, up to what price are you willing to stay in the auction, up to what price are you willing to continue bargaining? well, it's complicated here, because i don't know if i have the maximum price or not the maximum, maybe everyone got estimates there of 50, 60, 100-200, i don't know at all , this is where the theory of the game begins, yes, you must understand that everyone is now, except for the one who left, in the same situation as you, there are two options, either you win this auction or you lose, and if you...

your signal is maximum, everyone else has less, i lost, and now you know, until you lose, you want to find out how far you need to bargain, you know that the minimum was zero, someone has already left, you assume that the maximum is 20, that is, i immediately make the assumption that my maximum, because this is the only thing that interests you, yes, if not the maximum, if yours was not the maximum, well, you will lose this auction, someone had a bigger signal, he will bargain more than you, because you are solving the same problem, and this is not, that is, if up to ... let's say, i i say 20, the person went higher, this is not a signal for me, just like zero, the fact that the person went out and they rated this painting at zero, just like, like, someone rated it even higher, and this is my, so to speak, sucker, i made a mistake, in fact , the painting is worth 50 more, this can be, but just imagine that you negotiated, for example, to twenty, you raise the price by 21, then everyone went out, and i lost, and you lost, yes, so, the right

strategy. that's why it's interesting to look only at the outcome when you win, it means 20 maximum maximum signal, and well and now if the real value lies from zero to twenty equally likely, then the average will be 10, then exactly up to ten you need to bargain, you got a signal of 20, that is, i make an assumption that my signal is initially maximum, and i bargain until the middle of this signal, yes, yes, it will not work? so i actually, well, that is, considering the theory of probability, then we connect our friend game theory, it turns out that i have a very large number of items that i would like to buy for the collection, now everyone extrapolates it for themselves somewhere there or a house or an apartment or things there or something else, and i lose, well, in this problem all the conditions were formulated, if we

accept these conditions. assumption, then this is the optimal strategy. we remember that same graph with a kink, that is, let's say, without losing the amount of money, i get zero or positive emotions there. than if i fix for myself that i - bought for 20 what costs an average of 10, we remember, yes, there as a graph, grief it is twice as high as if i had bought , say, this painting - for the same 10, yes, that is, and here it turns out that we protect our psyche by using this theory, a very interesting theory, thank you, i will actually use it quite often, well , for what cases should you remember about it, when you participate in a competition, even if it is a real one. a competition of some championship and you won it, what does this mean? well, that your competitors were not so strong, but but it can't mean that i am the strongest, or statistically this is an incorrect assumption, well there is a joke about it, i would not want to be a member

of a club that would not go so far as to accept me as a member, that is, you have to fight, so to speak, well you have to fight and value those competitions, those procedures where you do not win, you take other places there, this means that the participants are higher than me in level, but there i have no chance of winning, yes, well for our task this means that you need to put yourself in the place of your opponent, yes understand how they compete with me, what their behavior, in this case, if someone came out at a zero rate, what does this mean about his signal, okay, it means that the signal was zero, and what does this mean for the value of the painting, well, it means that it is from zero to including there is a probability, because there is also an expert there. there is a probability that this is a fake, it can generally cost zero, i bought a painting for 20, which is not even worth 10, but zero, in fact, an absolutely amazing theory, do you want me to tell you how you can make money with this, this is where the easy money is, in the audience, yes in

university, there are 100 students sitting in front of me, i take a tin can, put some coins in it in advance, so that you can't see how much money is there, i close it, well , you can rattle it, listen, well, everyone will form their own idea of ​​how much money is there, okay, and now i... thank you very much, alexander, it was very interesting, thank you for yours, thank you, mikhail. it was the easy money podcast, i am its host mikhail khanov. today we talked about how game theory will help us make the right financial decisions, protect us

at least from negative emotions, at most from financial losses. you can find all episodes of the "easy money" podcast on the channel one website. welcome, you are watching precious stories. my name is ekaterina varkan. rumors that the slavs are famous only for their victories in horse racing and fist fights have been greatly exaggerated at all times and very attractive tabletops were common in different layers of society.

pistol, and all this, where did it come from? cards, in fact, are multicultural inventions, if you believe all this semi-legendary, let's say, motives, yes, then they originated from ancient egypt, these are the so -called tarot cards, then they spread throughout the world, accordingly there were several versions, a french deck, italian, german, that's how these sheets of paper, which contained some kind of... secret knowledge , reached our time, and of course, they could not bypass our homeland. there is such a legend too, i heard that the cards did not come from egypt, but from persia, from china, here we have persian cards very

beautiful, they are made of papier-mache and varnished, but it was a unique, expensive piece of work and only privileged people could, so to speak, use it, i think that the chinese bone cards were also, in russia. the cards were simpler, i understand, but when they came to us, who, in fact, threw them to us? the first evidence of cards is 1586, it was a french expedition to... europe, the cards most likely came from western europe , they came to us via the northern sea route, but philologists have proven it.

such characteristic terms, nizhnik and vyzhnik, this is a jack and a queen, yes, they had such a variant, so here, most likely, western europe, well, and it is curious that they spread very quickly throughout the moscow state, that is, somewhere already in 1627 in the customs books of tomsk there were already recorded playing cards foreign, which were quite expensive, well, we know that vices spread quite quickly. well, and we know that such an acquaintance, one of the generally

important, so to speak, acquaintances of the sovereign emperor alexei mikhailovich with cards , we know, there was a version that peter ii studied with cards, perhaps the alphabet, perhaps something else, this is the first mention, serious, yes, or you will correct me, yes, i will correct, because historians always correct everyone, yes, the first mentions of cards are criminal cases. for example, here are the russian ambassadors who were in germany, there they wrote denunciations of each other, and there was just such a mention that one of these people interfered in a card game, which german nobles led it, and they accordingly supplied it, but this is what is said, so what ended up on the pages of these cases, we know about this, in principle, in the military memoirs of the governor...

1677, where it is written that there are, in my opinion, 12 dozen, seven games, rotten cards, that is, what does this mean, seven games, seven decks, four pieces were pulled out of a dozen, and apparently they were played with them, the rest simply rotted, so, apparently, alexei mikhailovich preferred traditional chess to cards, well, anyway in this case, you say, yes, that the history of cards is calculated for some criminal things, when someone... was caught or something, but we know that our rulers also issued many

decrees to prohibit card games, and peter too, each of his successors was noted for different decrees, which ones? starting with alexei mikhailovich, the famous cathedral code, yes, where it was prescribed to treat dice players like thieves, that is, cut their fingers, ears, tore out their noses, in fact this is not so, that is, for the game itself... they didn't punish, they punished if the player - in order to get money for the game, was engaged in robbery, theft, took off hats, where, as a rule, money was hidden, then there was already a punishment, pure gamblers were only beaten with batags, and naturally the cards were burned, and the subsequent rulers peter i, the northern war is being waged, he issued a decree in 1717, where it was forbidden to play cards, dice and...

nasty it should be prohibited, although it was precisely at the court of annanovna that cards began to enter everyday life in the russian court to a large extent this was facilitated by beron, who was a great lover of luxury, therefore, on the one hand, as often happens, the state prohibits with one hand,

with the other hand, so to speak, allows at least for itself, i cannot help but say about elizabeth petrovna, because in the thousand... 761 she essentially allowed gambling card games by decree she divided them into commercial games, allowed to play commercial games it is necessary to know the rules, that is, these are the so -called power games, where they could be small stakes, prohibited gambling, but they were prohibited everywhere except in his imperial majesty's chambers, well, actually... speaking, where this big , ruinous game for russia was played, so this division into equals and more equals, naturally did not give the authorities the moral right to demand a ban for everyone, because everyone saw that they were playing in the chambers, well, that means we can play too, well, catherine played, we know, and those close to her with

the ambassadors, they played, we know, for pebbles, not for money, for pebbles, pebbles are... diamonds from the russian treasury one carat was considered 100 rubles, yes i heard somewhere that she often did this in order to advertise russian gems while playing with ambassadors, and also losing to some of her subordinates, for her it was like, well, a sign of encouragement, some kind of bonus, well, she had a lot of enviable partners, one of whom... gavril romanovich derzhaven, who is well known to us, of course, his story is interesting here, because in his youth he not only played, and played dishonestly, he cheated, yes, that is, a well-known story, that he had lost the money given to him by his mother to buy an estate, that is, in fact, he had got acquainted with

the officers, who had basically put him in a condition that he had to repay his debts, and he had resorted to cheating tricks, but he still played unhappily, yes, here are the famous verses of his repentance, yes, that in the luxury of entertainment, i had spoiled my already blameless character, spoiled, corrupted into darkness, a swindler had sunk, a gambler, a spendthrift, a rake, he found himself, instead of consuming his talent for his benefit, yes, i had ruined him with a vicious life, that is what he wrote about , then he was able to get out of it, he had become quite sedate, let's say,

the empress, but in his years a briefcase with papers, that is, which had to be reported, was called a wallet, i have such a suspicion that he not only, so to speak, carried business papers, but perhaps carried money when he played cards with catherine, and maybe these same pots were transferred to the table during ... the game, yes, looking at this briefcase, it is still unclear whether he brought money into the palace or took it out, yes, altai is entertainment for every taste, first you make a clap, and then like this, oh, strike, i need to hug him really tightly and...