"consider this" after a year that was filled with political disasters, will 2014 be the year

the american public holds its elected officials accountable? plus the stock market as reached all-time levels and the s & p500 rose to 25% in 2013, will 2014 be as prosperous in the financial world? marvel looks to continue its box office domination while other studios look to churn out more sesequels. we'll tell you what movie to his get excited about this year. from the olympics in sochi, the world cup in brazil. 2014 is shaping up to be a big year no sports. welcome to "consider this," predicting what 2014 may have in store for us. we begin with politics. 2013 was a rocky year for our elected officials. president obama fresh off a second term win unleashed an a guess i have agenda that went nowhere. things got especially bad in the summer with a scandal at the nsa. confusion over foreign policy and action to take in syria and a government shutdown in the fall.

then the dismal roll out of obama care. yale university's library gave its top spot on the list of quotes of 2013 to the president's apology to health care. >> with respect to the pledge that i made if you like your plan, you can keep it, the way i put that forward unequivocally ended up not being accurate. >> and the first session of the 113th congress now holds the dubious distinction of being the least productive in recent history. it has all laid the groundwork for the important midterm election that his come up in 2014. so what should we expect in our new year? joining us now from los angeles, is michael a political contributor for al jazerra america. from washington, d.c., bill schneider an al jazerra english contributor and professor at george washington university. and here in our studio tom doherty a republican strategist and former senior advisor to new york governor george pataki. great to have you all. >> thank you. >> bill, we don't expect a government shutdown now because

of budget deal bull we have the debt ceiling discussion coming around on february 7th or at least that's the date that we are looking toward. very close to the gop primaries that start in march. do you expect any drama? >> yes, because paul ryan who is the chairman of the budget committee in the house he said we can't get nothing for raising the debt limit. excuse me, what you get for raising the debt limit is that you are not putting the full faith and credit of the united states at risk and you are reverting a world financial crisis. that's your civic obligation as legislators. he insists he wants a bargain. he wants to get something for that. well, that's the way to drive a crisis. and we can see another one if he intends to carry out that threat. >> let's look at exactly what congressman ryan had to say about the debt limit just a couple of weeks ago. >> we are going to decide what it is that we can accomplish out therefore debt limit fight.

>> tom, with him threatening another battle over the debt ceiling, as bill said, what do republicans hope to accomplish? >> i think i hope republicans recognize that crisis doesn't work very well for em this. they saw the government shutdown. their numbers have slid gone up since we focused on obama care. we got through a nice budget deal with murray and ryan together. i hope the republicans recognize this is a lot of talk and hopefully it will move quickly, they need to raise the debt -- >> do you think it will happen? >> i think it will happen. i think boehner has had enough with the far right and he recognize that his, you know, as we have talked about for many months, the full faith of the american credit is on the line. you raise the debt, there will be negotiation, but there won't be the drama we had the last time. >> we'll talk about the boehner and the far right in a bit. you were talking about numbers, bad for republican republicans e of the government shutdown they improved afterwards because of obama care. michael, president obama those numbers are ugly, he's starting the year with the lowest approval ratings of his presidency. the latest abc poll found 55% of americans disapprove of the job he's doing on the economy, 55%

disapprove of his overall job performance. do you see him turning around those numbers in the new year? >> well, here is the thing, a antonio, it's hard for him to go -- to get much worse. i think that his perception right now, coming out of all the problems with obama character with the launch of obama care, with the roll out, it's hard for him to go lower than that barring some crisis that we can't foresee. but if we keep the con test where it is right now, you know, at the beginning of december, john came on board at the white house, i have a feeling this year we'll see a big difference in the way this white house messages, pete rouse is going to probably leave, the counselor to the president that's been there for a while. and i see john taking charge of the way that they spin this. and i think listen, i mean, the president's approval rating going to be largely dependent on his signature piece of legislation, so significant that it's got his name on it. so he's going to have to work on selling that. it's an election year is a good way to get it bashed or sale it. >> on that signature piece of legislation the numbers are even

worse, only 34% approve of how he's handling the implementation of the affordable care act, 62% disapprove. open enrollment runs through march. the numbers are incredibly low. clearly the republican party is going to keep pressing the president on this. how do you see this playing out? >> this is the best that just keeps on giving. you know, the problem, the obama white house should never have thrown this magic 7 million number on it. that they needed 7 million enrollees, it's the ratio between healthy and sicken reallies that's the number that they have to worry about. if that's out of proportion it will keep driving cost. there is a built in factor here that rates shouldn't go found a period of time because it's built in sort of a reinsurance of the insurance industry based on obama care. but they have put such numbers on themselves, that their going to be hard to match by the i want of march. that's a political liability for him. >> bill, another political obama care liability, a time bomb

sitting there, rake hikes for for small businesses start in october. just before the midterm elections. the timing couldn't be any worse for democrats. >> that is certainly true. what will happen is that some small businesses are going to see their rates shoot up for insurance, they kept their plans for an extra year as the president allowed them to two. in october they'll find out their new rates, they'll blame it on obama care, a lot of small businesses will be paying mere some will be paying less and they will be very relieved. we'll only hear complaints it's complaints. it's the people going up, the businesses who rates go up will cry and make a big impression on the voters. the people who rates are not going up or maybe even going down, they are not going say a word. >> and republicans aren't waiting until the fall to deal with obama carrots already being widely used against democrats, senator in new hampshire is one example, let's look at this. >> on health care, jean didn't tell the truth. >> you can keep your insurance if you like it.

it wilin crease choices for families. it will promote competition. >> the facts, more than 20,000 new hampshire patients have had their coverage canceled and obama care offers only one insurer on new hampshire's individual market. so next november, if you like your senator, you can keep her. if you don't, you know what to do. >> i suspect we'll their that refrain in almost every race in 2014. she may face a strong competitor, scott brown, former senator from massachusetts may be moving to new hampshire and run against her . that will be an interesting race right there. again, michael, owe bomb care will be the weapon that his republicans will use until november elections. it's pretty clear. >> what the democrats will have to work on, and i think tom will agree, is separating the obama from the care. these senators, incumbents and challengers will have to talk about how many more people will

be insured under the affordable care act:. i would guess you'll see democrats referring to it as the aca rather than obama care, and they'll emphasize that. you will not make it go away, so you have to embrace it. the messaging that will come, we are getting a little ahead of the game, too, antonio, we are talking about it as if what exists now with owe bomb care going to be what exists come lex. we have seen the deadlines come already. who knows if the october small business deadline won't be extended until the follow march to keep it out of election as well . what democrats have to charge themselves with is separating themselves from obama care and mar will have an ease time doing it. she has put forth proposals different from what the president put out at the beginning. >> she's one of the more embattled senators run for this democrats next year. >> exactly. >> tom let's talk about the horse race, do republican have

his a solid chance of regaining control of the senate? >> if you go to louisiana, west virginia, just to start off, arkansas, alaska, north carolina, there are seven, six or seven races, the need is to win seven. i think mary is in real trouble just because of the simple fact they do not like this president down there. and then, you know, races that i did not think would be a problem for democrats, alaska, typical republican state, very close election right now. and he voted for obama care. it's going to come down to a race or two. and i think the senate is going to be 51-49 either way. >> bill, what do you think? >> well, first of all, this is the third election in a row in which obama care is the central issue. you had it in 2010, 12, and now again in 2014, you doesn't go way do i a good reason, it's a large part of the american economy and affects everybody. i think what we'll see is probably republicans make some marginal gains in the house and they'll come very close to

winning a majority in the senate. as i agree, it will be within one or two seats. >> michael, your prediction? >> i disagree with bill on the -- as far as the house really astute observation this is obama care for the third straight time we are talking about obama care. i think it will be a really tight senate. i think montana is a senate race that you have to look at right now . i think it could come down to small senate race that we don't pay attention to. it won't be just mitch mcconnell, it going to montana and michigan, too, democrats will have to work harder than they thought at this. in october we thought it was a slam dunk because of the way congress and the republican congress particularly was behaving around the budget deal. and about the debt ceiling, so these things change very, very quickly. and, again, it's not, you know, we have 11 months to work this out.

>> and the republicans face some internal battles, including mitch macomb as you mentioned, who faces a primary challenge from the far right of the republican party. and a lot of the races this year will deal with that fallout from the very public internal gop fight that house speaker john boehner famously ripped open in december. >> they pushed news to this fight to defund obama care and to shutdown the government. most of you know my members know, i wasn't exact -- that wasn't exactly the strategy i had in mind. if but if you recall the day before the government reopen ed one of those groups stood up and said we never really thought it would work. are you kidding me? >> are you kidding me? tom, what do you think, despite these tea party challenges, do you think that the established republicans are gaining the upper hand now? >> you know, i think that we needed a voice. i mean, those of us who consider ourselves, you know, the moderate, the established

republicans if that's the new term for myself. we needed someone to stand up and say enough is enough. when they consider that john the senator from texas is not a conservative. we shake our heads. when a member of congress who has been there no 10 years says i don't need some 32-year-old staffer telling me i am not a conservative when he should look at my conservative voting record. i think we have now gotten somebody to fight back. boehner is leading a charge and i think the grown ups are now acting in a responsible way and that's very good for the republican party. >> i want to talk about legislation very quickly, guys, i want real quick predictions on all of these, do you think there is any chance for immigration reform? >> i do think there is a good chance for immigration reform it behooves the republicans, some of them running for president in 2016 to this year start getting traction on that. so i do think so. >> tom noding in agreement. bill, do you agree too?

>> yeah, but it might not be citizenship, it night be a legalized status which is a moderate position. >> tom, how about the minimum wage? >> again, one of those dividing issues. i don't see movement on minimum wage, i think that this have and have not conversation is going to continue. but, you know, history has shown thousands every time it's come up, there are a lot of hard-working people that say i am working really hard for what i have it continues the divide and wrong it will happen. >> michael, do you agree? >> i agree with to remember there. without a center, you saw tom wolf leave. you won't get the progress on the have and have mott issues, that's right. >> i want you to make bolt predictions, bill anything special you see happening? >> the economy will improvement. it may mott have much political affect because of obama care. the health care law will remain a problem because a lot of young people won't sign up until the last second. they don't have to pay a penalty until april of 2015 and for a

young person who feels like he or she will live forever, that's like way down the line . they are not worry about that. >> tom? >> as bill said i think the economy will get off to a rough start but towards the election it will be better. with murray and ryan doing a budget together i am hopeful they will realize chaos doesn't work for democrats or republicans and find way to get items like immigration, et cetera, done early next year. >> michael final prediction. >> i think eric holder will announce that he will be leaving his job that year and will change conversation on affordable health care. >> that will make republicans happy. won't it? bilker michael, tom is as always great to have you on the show. coming up, 2013 was a strong year for financial institutions, what might 2014 hold for them? what do you think, join the conversation on twitter at ajconsiderthis and on facebook

the u.s. economy has been struggle to go recover from the great recession, but are we headed for a big up swing in 2014? unemployment is dropping, we are

at 7% now, but the fed says it could go as low as 6.3% in 2014 and to adds to the optimism an important independent provider of economic forecasting moodies analytics issued a very hopeful outlook for this year. after years of trouble, thanks for the financial collapse of 2008, why all the optimism? let's ask the chief economist from mood ian lit moody analytics, mark. you are very optimistic about a much stronger u.s. economy in 2014, let's start with job growth. you actually think that faster growth could let the u.s. economy reach full employment, which you define as 5.785% by 2017. that means a lot of jobs, how many jobs every month is the u.s. going to have to add to make that happen? >> yeah, right. i am optimistic. i think we'll create on average 250,000 jobs per month over the next several years. of course, current job growth is

about 200,000 per month, so i do expect job growth to accelerate. in coming months and a big part that have is related to my optimism about housing and house be construction, i think there will be a lot more jobs coming out that have economy. >> let's talk housing then. the housing market has rebounded, but there are still hundreds of thousands of foreclosures that are still out there. how big of a part of the recovery is housing going to be? >> it's key. you are right, the only drag on housing at this point is that there are still a lot of loans in the foreclosure process. to give you a number, 2.25 million homes are in foreclosure, pretty close, delinquent and probably go in. that's high. in a normal economy you would pictures a million loans in that kind of a predicament. we have to work through thoses loans, we are rapidly doing that and there are strong demand for those homes, investors are scarfing up the properties aggressively, that's one of the

reasons the market has come back and it's strong. most important reason for optimism and housing and housing construction is that the current level of home building is well, well below what we need just to house the households being formed. you know, every year we get households formed from population growth and they have to live somewhere. and for the last several years, we haven't been building enough homes, so a year from now, two years from now our big problem won't be too many homes, it will be a lack of housing. >> but an important part in the housing recovery has been the long-term interest rates have stayed very, very low. that's helped the economic recovery in general. do you think inflation interest rates will continue to stay low? >> yeah, you know, that's an excellent point. the key risk to my optimism is that interest rates rise more quickly than is required. so, key here is the federal reserve. the federal reserve has to be able to imagine the increase in interest rates, consistent with the improvement in the job market, as unemployment comes down, they can along long-term

interest rates and rates to rise in general, if they can pull that off and i think they have all the tools and the will necessary to do that, if they can we are fine and my optimism will come to pass, but you put your finger oater most significant threat to my optimism, not being able to manage this as gracefully as i am hoping. >> they started managing it in december by starting to taper back the quantitative easing, which means that they are basically pumping money in to the economy. but they are pumping it, they lowered it by $10 billion from the $85 billion in bonds that they were purchasing every month. do you think -- what are we going to see in the next few months from the federal i federe when it comes this that. that has been a very important part of keeping rates low and getting economy going. >> right, antonio. i pictures the job market to improve and unemployment to decline and that will allow the federal reserve to continue to wind down its quantitative easing, it's bond buying and i

expect that by the end of 2014, their bond purchases will be over. and, in fact, by the second half of 2015, i think the economy will be in good enough shape they'll start allowing short-term interest rates to rise. so hopefully, the economy sticks roughly to that script. and the feds will be able to manage interest rates reasonably well. i think that they'll be able to do it. but, you know, again, that's the crux of the matter, they have to get that roughly right. >> and you have brought up other issues. business confidence is up. but consumer confidence is still close to all-time lows about 80% of americans still think we are in a recession. how big of a bump in the road is that consumer confidence going to be? >> you know in, general consumer confidence reflex the economy, doesn't drive it. the exception is being when you are going in to recession or coming out of recession, then consumer confidence is very important. so my sense is that as unemployment comes down, and given relatively low inflation and gasoline prices and if we see as i expect continued improvements in-house prices and

stock price that his consumer confidence will steadily improve and return to something closer to normal. having said that, one of the big, longer term problems we have in our economy is the fact that higher income households, those folks in the top third of the distribution of income, are doing fabulously well, their balance sheets are very strong, very wealthy, have jobs and income. the folks in the bottom part of the distribution, the bottom third, they are struggling. and so even if good times, going forward, we are going to have that dichotomy and that's a problem that i think we need to address as a nation. >> i know you have some concerns about whether politicians will continue to behave and that that could be a problem to slow down the economy. but you also bring up an issue that only the future will be able to give us the answer to, which is whether the great recession undermined our economy's long-term potential. >> yeah, you know, excellent question. it did damage, right. so if you asked me what the full employment, unemployment rate

was before the recession, i would say 5%. that means we would have to get to 5% unemployment rate before we felt like we were at full employment. as you noted at the start of the conversation i now expect it to be 5 3/4 percent, those are people disenfranchised. so the recession did damage. but i don't think the recession has fundamentally slowed the economy's ability -- fundamentally effected the economy's ability to grow. i do think that we'll be able to grow as fast in the future as we have had experience historically. so i don't think that the underlying productivity growth or labor force growth has been materially affected by the recession. but having said that, we need to watch the data because the data so far suggests that something more that various has gone on and underlying potential growth has been affected. i am hopeful that won't continue of but it bears very close watching.

>> let's hope your optimism is well founded and we have good economic news after so many years of bad news, mark, great to have you. we just heard the economic forecast for 2014, so let's turn now away from the numbers and take a look instead at what news stories might come out of the business world to tell us what trends and story to his keep an eye out for in 20 fewer teen we are joined in new york by diane. from bloomberg new york thanks for joining us. >> nice to be hooker. >> google glass made a splash there 2013, what do you see in 2014 drawing our attention? >> i am sure we'll be wearing google glasses. i think wearable device is his a transformative technology overall. and let's look at health care, you now have all of these people wearing their fit bits, you can turn your iphone in to an egk that monitors your heart rate. i think the transformative power of technology in the health care space is going to be a big story. we have seen some of that with,

you know, 23 and me where you spit in the test tube, you get back your dna. you can basically get a full genetic profile. the fda is nervous about some of the changes, but i think in essence, i think people are starting to embrace and we'll see much more personalized health care. >> you are talking about some of those wearable technologies, i am going to be able to check my -- do an ekg on myself? >> you can right now with your iphone you can get an app and device and pick up 90% of the heart attacks that are detected in an emergency room can now be tracked on your iphone. so imagine what that does, you can do things like monitor your heart rate, monitor your sleep. people are doing this more and more. and as that gets connected to the internet, they take much more control i think of their health care. you'll see communities form around some of these different diseases which sounds, of course, you know, not the kind of party you would want to go to. but what that does is i think -- >> provide support. >> it will also transform research and we are seeing it happen. it's part of the broader trend

being people call it the internet of things. basically the best way to think about it, is all of the people who have connected, you know, to the internet, think about now machines connecting to the internet. and we are talking devices, like 50 billion to 500 billion, all these censors on products will transform our health, it will transform our homes, refrigerators that can self cool, for example, homes that can sort of adjust to the weather. that's going to, i think, in many ways transform manufacturing and health care, we are already seeing it happen. and i think that's going to be the big term for next year. >> that will transform a lot of the things we do in our lives. how will it transform, you can see technology becoming even more important than the manufacturing industry? >> i think it will. we have already heard about 3d printing and one of the interest things about 3d printing instead of having parts that are just sitting there, you can now print parts, you can print airplane parts, you can print medical devices. you can actually print going forward potentially to get back

to health care, limbs, hearts, there is no end to where this can go. but in the immediate term right now, what it's doing to manufacturing is you are having machines talk to each other, it makes for smarter plants, you know, smarter manufacturing lines. but in 3d printing as well, you are seeing that really lower the cost significantly. so all of the big players out there, this is the kind of disruption that they worry about. but eights also th it's also thy that they can take advantage of. of course. let's look at the negative side, any industries or company that his might have trouble next year? >> i think there is a lot. i think microsoft is one we'll watch. we still don't know at this point. but i think what will be happening with steve bomber and who replaces him. this is a giants. we have seen many giants fall over the past few years. most recently blackberry, but microsoft is one that's very vulnerable right now because we are essentially using our phones, not really using our pcs anymore. maybe our tablets, so they are already in a bad spot.

they have been mismanaged for quite a few years, and i think a lot of people now are curious to see if microsoft can get out of this intact stronger or if they will be one of the casual at thises. >> we saw microsoft, no kia acquisition this year. the merger between us air and american airlines, will we see any industries in particular where we'll see more consolidation in 2014? >> i think that's a good question . the airline industry is one kudo to us airlines and american pulling victory out of the jaws of failure, that deal was not popular with the government as you know, not popular with consumers necessarily, but the airline industry has consolidated at this point in the u.s. you'll probably see more in the internet space certainly. there is a lot of companies out there and i mentioned 3d manufacturing, that's one area i think you'll see more acquisitions. all you'll see steel players,

because of the deep freeze in mash mash has finally start today that you. a lot of them were sitting on mountains of cash, now as they feel more comfortable they want to spend it. what do they spend it on? other companies. >> will they spends it on workers? a lot of talk about minimum wage and whether the federal minimum wage should go up? some stairs raising it. a lot of demonstrations in 2013 people protesting how low their wages were. >> i think what we are going from is action this year. we have more than a dozen states that have raised the minimum wage. i think there is a recognition that this is a wage that has essentially not budged for more than a decade. you have the working poor, people who work full-time and still can't afford the basic needs of life in the united states. so i think we are seeing that. we are also seeing on the top end, the 1%ers not so much protest, much more on the taxation and the recognition that the income gap is unsustainable in this country. and going forward, we have to narrow it if we are going to stay competitive. so all sides, i think recognize that it's got to a situation where it's unfair.

>> only a few seconds letter. quick, any bold predictions for 2014? >> any bold predictions? i think that the internet is something to warm. the network is powerful and the technology now is something that will transform, how we live our lives and i think we'll see a lot more power in the consumer over health care, over printing our own toys, our own devices and i think it's a very exciting time. >> diane brady, sr. editor at bloomberg business week, it's a pleasure to have you here, thank you for joining us, straight ahead, 2014 is shaping up to be another big year in the world of film.

>> every day i wake up knowing the more time he try to save. the more enemies i will make. and it's just a matter of time before i face those with more power than i can overcome. >> the amazing spider man two is one of several big sequels on the way. and let's get the low down on all things culture in the new year with bill why man, he joins us from phoenix, he's an al jazerra culture critic and former npr arts editor and ben joins us from los angeles, he's a host on turner classic movies. and the film review show online, what the flick. great to have you guys with us as always, bilker spider man two, just one of a host of sequels that's on the way. what are we looking out for here? this trend of just these total franchises seems to be a bigger

and bigger deal as time goes by in hollywood. >> oh, thanks for having me on ontario. as usual it's a tsunami of sequels that we'll be seeing. you start coming up with the list. i gave up after hitting 25 or so. that means a big major sequel. these are major sequels not just crappy horror films about every other week through 2014 so get ready. we have got the seventh fast and furious, which is just getting to be a ridiculous number. depending on how you count, it's either the second or the fifth spider man, remember because we also have to take in to account reboots. and then all these mergings like the avengers where you have the ironman and the avenger and captain america all working together. and i think at a certain point we'll get some crazy thing where you ever the avengers and transformers training your hobbits to diehard or something like that. >> planet of the apes. >> all will come together and get up to about 20 of those. >> i know, it goes on and on and on. i guess they are sure money make for hollywood and that's why they do it.

something else that's a sure moneymaker for hollywood are the remakes. we have godzilla , noah, about noah's arc, it just goes on and on. robo cop. hollywood, does it have an original idea left? >> yeah, look, if you take a look at rotten tomatoes list of the 100 best reviewed movies of 2013, what you will see is mostly original ideas. i mean, if you assume that original idea is an idea taken from a book or a play. i mean, hollywood, in a sense they have never been a place for original ideas. the mere affect taking somebody else's art, be it a novel or story or article or play and turning it in to this motion picture, i mean, that's an original idea all by itself the franchises, the sequels, i don't know which to call them, they are all essentially sequels. hollywood has been doing that forever too. i mean, it's very convenient to

think of the golden age of hollywood, but we forget that movies like the maltese falcon was a remake, a reimagination all the way back in 1941. >> true. but it certainly has gotten worse with these remakes and these sequels. let's talk about some of these films that haven't been done before. there are some big blockbusters coming up. one is a big sci-fi film, bill. >> it sure is. and, boy, the geeks in all of us, and i am one to this extent, love christopher nolan he does the big budget batman ones to get the money to do these more original ones. innocence made a lot of money two or three years ago, it was the highest grossing movie that was an original move that i we have probably seen in the last 10 years, so everyone -- so people like me have high hopes for that one. >> interstellar and that's matthew mccaughney. and johnny depp in another one. >> yes. and that has a christopher nolan

tie in as well. his cameraman, wally who is a geek hero it's his first debut as a feature film director. >> so, ben, we are in the thick of the academy awards season, i am going to get predicts from you guys. what do you think will take home the best picture award? >> well, you know, i was just looking over the odds. right now vegas doesn't have odds posts, but offshore lines have odds posted. and the heavy favorite is 12 years a slave with gravity a close second, then american you hustle. really the only three movies that the odds makers -- these guys are seldom wrong, of course the nominations haven't come out yet, that's a very important distinction to i can ma. i don't understand those three, they have some long odds for captain philips and saving minute banks, those three gravity and american hustle. >> i am pinning you down, which one will win? >> i don't think these guys lose money. i think -- actually, in a sense i think it's early. but i have this feeling that gravity will beat out 12 years a slave and the big win for 12

years a slave will be beating out robert redford for best actor. >> how about, you bill, what do you think? >> i am glad to hear ben say that. i am a big fan of gravity it's a beautiful breathtaking cinematic experience. the odds, it is early, the reason it's early is the odds come out based on all the other awards that we see over the next two months before the oscars. they give us a lot of read this goes to the academy voters and we haven't seen really any of them except for the s.a.g. awards which have been fishy of late and wolf of wall street is just beginning to get reviewed so things are fluid. 12 years a slave, that's a move that i oscar should really like. i think gravity is pretty much the movie experience of the year. so i am rooting for that as well. >> best actor and actress, do you agree with ben on actor? >> boy, that is an unforgettable massive titanic performance in that movie 12 years a slave. and it was a difficult role in so many

ways, bruce dern i am a fan of him and he's a guy who after his career and his amazing life, he deserves a shot by the academy as well. >> actress, ben? >> actress, i think is, you know, and, again, there will be a significant sentiment to give robert redford an oscar but people should remember that great, great, great actors, richard burton and just railroad recently peter o'toole died without winning an as tour it's possible that redford could gave without getting one. i think 12 years a slave will win but i am a jerk for speculating. i am a jerk for a lot of reasons. >> i am the one making you speculate. >> best actress is as much of a lock as we can get. when the golden globes and critics choice awards and the directors and the producers start chiming in, that will significantly influence things, that said the favorite since her movie came out months ago has been indicate blanchett and i

think she will win. >> do you agree, bill? >> i pretty much. i am skeptical of that movie, but performance is pretty memorable. and i think the academy would like to get -- they like -- for some reason they lover woody allen, even though he spurns them for decades now. and another thing we should remember, just as an overview, that none of these sequels that we talk about are showing up in any of these categories. just shows you this things we have talked about before. this big did very generals in hollywood where the awards show season hollywood is different than will make 19 of the top 20 grossing movies of next year. >> the golden globes snubbed oprah. do you think the academy awards will give her a nomination? >> i don't know. like i said, it's -- i will be curious to see what happens at the ceremonies. >> the oscars and the golden globes have miss hit in the past. last year, of course, ben after

next left out of an oscar ma'am nation and swept all the other awards. so it's not always indicative of how things will go. but, you know, i think that it strikes me that the academy as a body is a group more likely to honor her than the golden globes, but you know, if she just would have called and told the golden globes she would come, they probably would have nominated her. that's frequently how they work. so i hear. i am not sure. >> all right, i started with bill. on film let's start with you on tv, ben, what's coming back that we can look forward to. >> home land just ended we'll ate get a season four of that. they have done an incredibly interesting thing. they have wiped the slate. i don't want to spoil it for people that haven't seen it they made a move in the final episode that some people thought needed to be made much earlier. >> signs three was deadly. >> i didn't think so, i thought there was five or six great, great episodes in there. so it was better than season two. but -- >> true. >> that said, they have -- well, first of all, remember with a show like homeland, the season

one was tran sen dents. the drama in that and tension was so strong week to week they couldn't live up to that. i have faith in the writers and creators of the show that now with the ability to do whatever went and give us what we want is not the love. the spying, we like the cia stuff. >> mandy pa teen ken, kept more sol. i am pleased that they have that opportunity and then madmen back as well. and tv has never been better and house of cards shows up on net flicks in april. good stuff coming. >> house of cards will be great. downton abbey coming back. madmen end its run this year and, true blood too? >> they both do. both will go out pretty much on top, unlike some other shows, madmen, is really exploring the dark recesses of this lead character and i think we'll

continue to see that. and i mentioned a couple of dramas that new dramas coming up if you are a big fan of these amc shows, there is a movie called stop and catch fire, which is a computer lingo joke and it takes place in the computer industry in the crates and that has some really -- '80s and has some really great buzz aim anxious to see that. a van prior drama and some other really juicy heavy duty ones we'll see the tv industry continuing to for the high-end shows. >> madmen i guess is having a split season so it doesn't end this year, it end in 2015. go ahead, ben. >> yeah, madmen, they are doing exactly what breaking bad did. i think they added a few episodes and give us two mini seasons. >> and the sopranos. >> that's right. which started this television renaissance. coming up in january, to give you a side of just how far television has come. and how much dignity all of a sudden there is in working in television certainly for the cable shows, is that true

detectives this hbo series has matthew mccaughney and woody harrelson two film actors at the top of that i recall games, in big movies matthew mccaughney seems certainly to get an oscar nomination for dallas buyers club, he's one of the top actors working today and here he is making a television series for hbo which one that i am anxious to see and i want to mention the return of two other fx shows, the americans which is terrific and justified which is phenomenal and needs to be recognized by the emmys, the golden globes, everybody. >> and we have to mention late night. because there is a big change in late night, jay leno stepping down, against his will. jimmy follow unmoving to 11:30. seth myers takes the later slot, he's from saturday night live. late night will be different. bill. >> it sure will. i have a lot of respect for david letterman, he has kept true to his quirky comic genius all these years, he has a great devastate thing about he's making fun of all the jimmies who are closing in around him. his mother is asking him all the

time, what jimmy are you, fa that face-off will be pretty interesting. we have to remember broadcast tv, the ratings are going down year after year, they are doing what they can. but we may be getting to the point where that late night broadcast tv, the big influence of them are over. of course they will remain to some extends money make force the respective studios. >> i am not sure these changes mats are at all as these met yorks trying try to get younger and online more . jimmy fallon and kimmel have been better at doing it than leno or letterman. i sat in to sort of guest lecture, that makes me sound more important than i think arm journalism class outside of los angeles, these kits who are all future journalism students hoping to work in the business, not one of them owns a television. and none of them watched the late night shows. none of them watched the nightly news, which seemed odd for journalism students.

wanting to work in television. so -- and i don't think they'll run out and buy televisions because seth myers has a show. >> good point, bilke bill, ben, through so much for joining us. straight ahead from the olympic to his the world cup. this year is a big year in sports, dave joins to us give us his predictions for 2014.

today amounts data dive rings in the new year by the numbers. the times square celebration brings in about a million people who will have about 2,000 pounds of confetti dropped on them at midnight. another billion people around the world are expected to watch the waldrop. since 1907. times squares has selling broughted for all all but two years during world war ii when lighting restrictions can set the party. it's become a cash do you.

the marriott marquee is charging $3,500 for you to have a direct view to watch the ball and your savings drop. new york clubs are expensive. the average tick net 2011 cost $75, once signed. alcohol will flow. one in four bottle of champagne sold throughout the year fly off the shelfs in the week between christmas and knew year's. that helps the 44% of american adults who plan to kiss someone at the stroke of midnight. celebrations stretch around the world from another million people lining sydney's harbor in australia to the four-day celebration in scotland for the festivities. in paris, france, the city of lights, revelers line the streets for, wha what else, a fantastic fireworks display. another that since resolutions, 45% of americans say they will make at least one. of that number one in four will fail within a week. less than half are expected today keep them six months later. some of us may want to make a

resolution, though, to be more subtle. 22% of those surveyed said they pictures to be fast asleep before midnight. coming up, what will the year ahead bring for the sports world? we'll check everything from the olympics and the world cup to american football. >> and now a techknow minute...

looking forward in to this new year of sports, two of the world's largest sporting events will take place and both are surrounded by controversy. will the olympics go smoothly or will russia's stance on game rights and the possible protests overshadowed the games? and will brazil be able to pull off a successful world cup? or will the country struggle to put on the turn. as the whole world watchs? to tell us what to expect for the sports world in 2014 we are joined from silver springs, maryland by al jazerra contributor dave, he's the sports editor for the nation, heads of edge the sports radio and the author of game over. dave, good to see you what will happen a sochi, john carlos and tommy smith moment this time for the lgbt community? >> we'll see something in so much see. i have no doubt about that whatsoever? will it look like 1968. people raises their fists in the air, could it be something far more subtle like the color of somebody's fingernails? could it be who somebody thanks

on the microphones from the medal stands, could it be billy jean king who is part of the delegation from the united states that will be there saying something or doing something? could it be something that happens off the athletic field because there are several marches that have been plan forked sochi by lgbt activists and allies. we do not know, but thing i can say is this will probably be the dominant narrative from those games. >> let's talk about the world cup, the other big sporting event. do you think brazil with all of the problems it's been having and a lot of protests down there, will it be able to put on a successful tournament? >> it will put on a successful tournament. no doubt about it. if there is one thing that brazil can do better than any country on earth it's to be able to throw a national party. the question is how mill terrized will the country have to get to do it? already i have done research and started writing about the security preparations, wow . it will be wild. exclusion areas around the stadium. drones flying overhead.

cameras everywhere you look. i think had will be protests. the question is how long will they last before they swooped up and put somewhere else. >> 2013 gave us one of the biggest scandals in nfl history. concussions and the league's cover up of the problem. where do you think the story will go in 2014? >> well, the story is going to largely be squelched because the nfl was able to indemnify itself against future lawsuits. the question will be is are you going to -- mine, it's like a story that never end, but is it going to -- are players going to actually challenge that ruling, players who are not part that have original class action lawsuit. that is something very possible. and you have already seen several former members of kansas city chiefs take the tactic of suing that team individually instead of suing the nfl as a whole. so we'll see if other former players adopt that, but i don't think the story is going to go anywhere because frankly, there are just too many former players who are damaged and that's going

result in more litigation. >> will we see a day where the nfl and other contact sports are free of these dangers? or is this just a risk we have to accept of playing the game? >> it's like saying are we ever going find a go tow nut that doesn't make us fat or a cigarette that's perfectly safe? >> call me when you find that donut, will you. >> i am sure there are folks in the backroom who wouldn't mind some of those cigarettes too. until we get that day, it's just not going to happen. that is fantasy land, the sport will always be dangerous, the future will be more about trying to get players to actually sign release forms before they are allowed to play for nfl teams, that's where it's going to. >> you have been very outspoken recently about the brewing controversy over the name - -- not brewing, the ongoing controversy of the washington redskins, 2013 was a big year, many leaders of the native american community along with 61 religious leaders and even president obama spoke out against the name.

a thousand people protested out outside a redskins game, will 2014 be the year the name changes? >> no it, won't. because dan snyder the owner of the washington football team who is only slightly less popular than congress in this town, which is really saying something, he has found the one issue which makes fans not want to get physically ill if he's in their immediate presence or on their television and that's him standing by this name with both feet and like saying you'll take this name from me from my cold, dead hands, one thing you will see in 2014 is a trademark lawsuit get ruled upon about whether or not the name is, in fact, a slur and should not be used in public places or in products or get licensed and if that takes place it would be such a dramatic chop in to the football team's profit margins and the nfl's profit margins that might trigg air i more serious conversation about a name change. >> let's go down the list of 2014 predictions. who will win the super

bowl? >> before the season started i picked seattle. no reason to stray from that now. >> really, no peyton man something. >> no. [laughter] >> cold weather and peyton in the playoffs don't mix. >> not going to work. after missing the finals for all of 2013, for the first time since 2002, will roger federer are be able to win another grand slam? >> absolutely roger federer are i think will win wimbledon this year and he will go to his knees afterwards and say, you know what, next year will be my last year as a professional tennis player. >> i have a 14 year olds at home right. will lebron james and the miami heat three-peat? >> not only will they three-peat, it will be followed by lebron james shocking the world and saying he's going to opt for free agency and finish his career with his old team the cleveland cavaliers. >> you are serious? >> that's -- i am make predictions, baby, that's roll the dice. >> all right. how about soccer, will the u.s. stage

at the world cup tournament? >> oh, tough call. the -- >> tough group. >> it is a tough group. they are playing began a which has been their nemesis about, you, jerk i think the united states will make the quarter finals of the world cup this year. >> we are not too far away from the bcs championship. auburn or florida state? >> without question, auburn. florida state has a lot of bad mojo, a lot of bad karma, that will cap up -- catch up to what is known as free shoes university. >> you are talking about jameis winston and all the allegationses. >> so much else i don't understand jameis winston, but, yes. >> eight suspensions in major league baseball last year for performance-enhancing drugs, more or less, what's the over and under for 2014? >> it will be bud selig's last year as commission he should he will want to yoiu with pardon the expression, but a bang. and i think the over under is going to be 15. >> the yankees have lost some big names andy pet it's, mariano rivera, robinson cano, curtis

granderson, might lose a-rod next year, are we seeing the end of the yankees dynasty? >> for the short-term absolutely, yes . lack for the yankees to come in last place in the al east. >> wow, we are going to miss george stein brenter. >> we are. >> finally any bold out o of let field predicts other than lebron declaring free agency? >> the story of the year i don't understand lebron and the u.s. making the quarter finals and sochi olympics will be serena williams challenging any member of the top 25 member of the men's tennis tour to say best of three-set match and the biggest tennis match that we have seen nay generation. >> since billy jean king and bobby rigs. >> there you go. >> that will be interesting: thanks for your prei can. >> thank you. >> the show is over but the conversation considers on our website. on facebook or good plus or on

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