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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  January 22, 2014 5:00pm-5:31pm EST

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grinding halt in some of the nation's busiest airports. for more on these stories go to www.aljazeera.com. inside stor"inside story" is nen al jazeera america. >> the americans, the russians, the syrians, the iranians have all set out their bottom lines for syria's future. they all can't happen. the peace conference in switzerland are the inside story.
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>> hello, i'm ray suarez. the powerful gathering of international leaders is talking about peace but presented very different ideas about whether bashar al-assad's stays or goes. meanwhile iran's leaders invited and then uninvited from the swiss conference unable to fuel the fire are publicly doubting the chances for progress. and judging from the delegation appearance in montreux, assad is ready to fight the last syrian. foreign ministers and negotiators from som several nas gather. right from the start, the hard lines decisions between syrian government and leaders of the opposition cast doubt on the
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success of the meeting. >> the syrian people aspire to defend the borders of the sovereignty. >> reporter: representing the government of bashar al-assad denounced the proceedings and the participants. >> no one in the world has the right to give or take legitimacy to a president or government or constitution or law or anything in syria except for the syrians themselves. this is their right and their constitutional right and what will be agreed to here, and whatever it is should be put to a popular referendum. we are here to decide what the people want and not decide their fate. >> reporter: he held the government's line, insisting that assad will remain in power as long as syrians want him to.
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he called the forces fighting his government terrorists and infuriated government participants by speaking at length despite requests to stop. >> i will finish one sentence. >> one sentence, okay, keep your promise, one sentence. >> syria always keeps its promise. >> reporter: the syrian opposition in the form of the syrian coalition held to its starting position, too. >> any talk of assad staying in power in any form will be a derailment of geneva one pact. so we insist we're not in any position to discuss anything in negotiations before these issues are decided upon within a specific time frame. >> reporter: from the outset of these talks organized with the diplomatic muscle of the united states and russia there will be no wiggle room. assad must agree to go.
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>> mutual consent which is what brought us here for a transition government means that that government cannot be formed with someone that is objected to on one side or another. that means that bashar al-assad will not be part of that transition government. there is no way, no way possible in the imagine that the man who has led the brutal response can regain legitimacy to governor. >> but there are challenges. the supporters of assad suggest there had was a role for his government in transition. >> we count on syrians to come to agreement. >> and the russian foreign minister suggested again syria's
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regional ally iran should participate in talks iran's president expressed little hope for the talks. >> wishing for peace and stability and the end of internal war in fighting the terrorist. if such a goal is reached, then it can be an effective meeting, but the overall signs does not give much hope that this can be successful. >> reporter: competing for the world's attention is the publication this week of a large cache of videos and photographs pressurreported to be smuggled a policeman and released by lawyers identify by qatar, and opponent of the assad government and owner of the al jazeera networks. whether or not these attacks will result in leadership
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transition for syria remains to be seen. [ gunfire ] meanwhile the nearly three-year-old war goes on. rebels in government forces clash today in and around damascus, the syrian capitol. >> joining me now is nick schifrin. this first day's deliberation expose just how far apart the parties really are. >> they absolutely did, ray. i think the word that a lot of people here are using is a chasm between the two sides. i mean, you laid it out perfectly. you have one side bashar al-assad who is denying the fact that they even have to consider talking about removing him from power. we saw in an interview assad suggesting he was going to run for president again in the next election. on the other side you have the u.s. the syrian opposition all
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saying that they all agreed to geneva one. they've all agreed to create a transition government that would not include assad at all. the rhetoric very inflammatory. you heard from the syrian foreign minister, the syrian opposition accused the syrian government of being terrorists. that's a word that they're both using for each other. given that the two sides are so far apart, the u.s. is really trying to tamp down expectations. they say this is a sixth simply by being here. the fact that we are here after a year half of trying to get here is a victory that we understand, that we're not going to get any kind of quick peace or break through in the next couple of days, but at least we're talking, they're throwing rhetorical question.
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>> there was no room for them in geneva. >> the syrian government, they're in the same room, they're in the same proximity. but to actually meet, shake
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hands, sneak a little talk around the corner or something until they have to. and that day will come on friday morning. tomorrow, the special representative who is really running these talks, he'll sit down with the opposition. he'll talk to them and say what are you willing to do? we'll pass that along to the syrian government representatives. his hope is that they can sit around a table and get them to talk to each other even if the two sides are so far apart, at least they're around the same table and at least they're talking. >> it was apparent that the united states was not going to intervene militarily in syria. once that was off the table what kind of leverage does john kerry have left to bring to bear on the assad government? >> the goal of this conference is to create that transitional government and got rid of assad. but assad is doing what he wants
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when he wants it. he feels he has impunity, to continue this cycle of violence, continue what opposition leaders are calling barrel bombs, bombs that destroy neighborhoods, indiscriminately killing civilians. he feels he can continue to do that, kerry is trying to convince assad some how that he doesn't have that impunity. he can't continue on this violent path. so given that military option is mostly off the table, what kerry is trying to do is isolate the assad regime. the rhetoric out of this conference is new from the united states. kerry is trying to say that assad is by himself. the assad regime, the family is by himself. this is not the syrians who protect him, this is the not syrians who may represent him. this is simply one family and their determination to stay in power. kerry's goal and the u.s. officials i talk to, their goal is to isolate him so much diplomatically that he feels
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like he can't continue that violence. isolate him so much diplomatically that iran and russia, his main backers, feel that they cannot continue to back him. russia and iran, as you just laid out are continuing to support him. the real question of how far you can get if anywhere in this conference until the they can find that pressure point, but they clearly haven't found the pressure point. >> for months now they have been sifting the public utte utteranf foreign minister labrov. one week it sounds like they're ready to acknowledge that there will be a post assad syria. the next week they're right behind him 100% all the way. where are they now?
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we have to look at it two ways. syria gives access to the mediterranean. russia has no other presence in the middle east. for russia to give up access to syria is like giving up access to the entire half and anything to the west. russia has no intention of giving up access to the mediterranean. they have signed a geneva one communique. it has publicly pledged it will consider a transitional government that will remove assad. russia is trying to play it both ways right now. what kerry is trying to do very diplomatically with the russians and especially with the russian foreign minister is to ease russia toward that point that we talked about, ease russia to the point that it can't support assad any more. it doesn't have the diplomatic leverage and assad doesn't have
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the support of russia to show their financial and military support to the government. there was more military weapons going into russia than ever before, that's another challenge for the u.s. and u.n. and for kerry trying to convince russia that assad is truly isolated and needs to be discarded, and we have to move on to a syria that has no future of assad. >> al jazeera's nick schifrin reporting from montreux, switzerland. a quick break now and when we come back we'll have more guests to talk with, including the director of the syrian american government who works closely with the syrian national coalition. stay with us. this is inside story.
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>> until f-16s are flying over the horizon over damascus he'll continue to be confident that he can hold his ground. >> this becomes a question as much as his will as the international communities. >> right, and i think both of our guests put their finger on that. you have a government in the form of bashar al-assad and his regime that has the
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preponderance of force on his side, and there is no opposing force that is capable or willing to push back on that officially to cause assad to negotiate for a settlement of some kind. the only thing we see is the push on assad, and that scarce us in the west saying we don't want to see that in syria either. but there is no support for moderate opposition, syrian national council, free syrian army that can challenge assad to the point that he feels he needs to negotiate for peace. instead for him geneva is a diplomatic vehicle for him to say that he'll negotiate with anybody. as you said he's not isolated. he walks in the room, and there they see the russians who are providing them arms and
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diplomatic support. they know the iranians are there and hezbollah is in the country fighting for them. he feels no pressure whatsoever. >> has the opposition been an asset for bashar al-assad. >> before i answer your question i want to clarify one thing for your viewers. i concur with the acement of asf both of your guests. >> al-qaeda affiliated group has used more than 25 car bombs against main treatment opposition or opposition groups. so what is happening, they're fighting against opposition. a few days ago there was a woman, a woman who tried to blow herself up at the border
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crossing in turkey. the opposition is in a tough position because they're fighting against al-qaeda. they're fighting against iranians, fighting against hezbollah. and fighting against the regime. that is a problem. what needs to happen for the united states to utilize the approach. we would like to see in future syria to strength on the ground so they can get meaningful concessions in geneva. >> we'll take a brief break right now. when we return we'll talk more about what assad is holding on for, and what the end game is for his supporters in russia, china and tehran. this is "inside story." stay with us.
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>> welcome back to "inside story," i'm ray suarez. the talks move to geneva where
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the syrian opposition is expec expected to sit cross the table with representatives of the syrian government. progress or not, it's quite striking the two sides have come together three years into the syrian conflict. and professor landis, i'm wondering, if you know, and could speculate, why bashar al-assad didn't take the offer to leave syria early on in this timeline. he could have a fabulousously wealthy man and lived out his days in tremendous comfort. instead of being a king farouk, a mobutu, and idi amin, he's deciding to stick with damascus king of the rubble when it's all over. why do you think it is? >> well, it's a minoritien regime. ththe alawites back him.
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the christians are also backing him and so are many other minorities who waiver. it's not uniform, but there are many wealthy sunnies who back him because there has been chaos on the rebel side and a lot of criminality. your guests have drawn a picture of assad being unwilling to negotiate. that's not clear. he's certainly unwilling to leave power, and he's willing to fight to stay in power. but he might very well be willing to negotiate. he said he would talk about a truce. what kind of truss, one doesn't know. there is in a sense a partition series. the rebels on the north and east, assad owns the south and the west. it's possible he would accept some sort of truce in syria, and it's quite possible that the
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iranians would accept that if the other backers of the rebels would accept it as well. >> let me go to that point. it's no longer assad's call alone outside factors come into play. >> there are several here. there is a shia interest keeping assad in power so they have a direct access into the heart of the middle east. that is iran supporting hezbollah which is tremendously important for iran. russia has a presence in the middle east. there are many factors for assad to stay in power and not give up. to josh's point, yes, he's willing to negotiate on things that will achieve his goals, which is what anyone does in negotiation. they're not willing to compromise to is that fair power, bring others into power,
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build an inclusive syria with the opposition now. he has put all bets down on fighting, killing, and staying in power. >> the idea that his backers will be pulled away starts to look remove, doesn't it? >> if the russians are happy with the agreement, if an agreement is reached, the agreement that they're hoping to reach in gentlema geneva with td regime staying in power. i don't believe assad would allow such a thing to happen. this whole delegation that is in geneva now supposedly, if all of them defected it would not really cause much damage to the assad regime. it's basically the army and the security. >> well, let's flip the question
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around. has the united states painted itself into a corner by creating such a narrow definition of what it's willing to accept as an outcome? we heard john kerry say it's absolutely not negotiable. >> this is the minimum requirement for the syrian people. the 2.5 million syrians in refugee camps, and 10 million in need of humanitarian assistance. these people, these people will not accept assad or his henchmen or cronies in power because these people don't inspire public confidence. >> to my guests, thank you all. this brings us to the end of this edition of "inside story." thanks for being with us. in washington, i'm ray suarez.
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