>> hello, i'm ray suarez. when the united states invaded afghanistan in 2011. the story at the time was little more than a suv driving around the country carrying a trunk stuffed with currency. that government was overthrown and melted back into the countryside to become a guerrilla army, and taxpayers of the united states has spent mightily to build a better and different afghanistan. now that the u.s. is getting ready to leave, what kind of country will be left. >> president obama is hoping that a new aid package will help pull afghanistan out of its war economy after relying heavily on

military and international aid efforts for 12 years. monday the u.s. agency for international development, usaid, promised $300 million for rebuilding afghanistan. the new usa package will include $125 million in food and farming, the foundation of the country's economy, $77 million for trade and taxes with plans to expand trade to the international markets and improve tax collection. and $100 million for education helping to fund ten afghan universities and partner with three u.s. schools. monday's announcement comes as the u.s. continues to pressure hamid karzai to sign the u.s. half began bilateral security agreement called the bsa. the pack would solidify conditions for involvement in the country after troops leave including police training and counter terrorism work.

the pack got the approval of the loya jirga last year, but president karzai has still not signed it. >> afghanistan will never sign the security agreement under pressure. no pressure, no threat, no psychological operation against our people can force us to sign the security agreement. if the foreigners want to leave, they should leave today. >> afghanistan's foreign minister said over the weekend he hopes the agreement gets passed soon. >> we support the document. we're hopeful that this document gets signed as soon as possible and the people of afghanistan also support this security agreement. >> in last month's state of the union president obama reiterated the importance of the deal. >> if the afghan government signs a security agreement we have negotiated, a small force of americans could remain in afghanistan with n.a.t.o. allies. >> on capitol hill there is

growing frustration can karzai and his government. while the administration negotiates, congress wants to make sure it can weigh in. >> collectively we're introducing a bipartisan resolution for any american soldier to remain in afghanistan after 2014 congress should vote. automatic renewal is fine for netflix and gym memberships, but it's not the right approach when it comes to war. >> the decision to sacrifice american blood and treasure in this conflict should not be made by the white house and the pentagon alone. >> in afghanistan n.a.t.o. and u.s. forces may be planning to leave by the end of the year, but for civilians on the ground it's still a very dangerous place. two n.a.t.o. civilian contractors were killed in a kabul suicide bombing monday. violence increased in 2013.

>> civilian injuries have increased in 2013. >> joining us now to discuss aid to afghanistan as it transitions away from a wartime economy is larry sampler, who works for usaid as assistant to the administrator in afghanistan and pakistan affairs. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> food and education, they sound great and appropriate, but try to give us an idea of the specific kinds of things, the specific kinds of projects that this money buys. >> we've made a lot of gains in health and infrastructure. the goal is to cement these

gains. these programs are focusing on what we consider to be one of the necessary prerequisites for success. and that's sustainable, economic growth. the afghans won't be able to sustain economic growth without, for example, some of the trade and revenue parts of this program that will be announcing or we announce today. we're helping them, for example, gain exception of trade. countries emerging, able to make the hard changes and decisions associated with wto ac mandarin session has seen 20% permanent bump in their gdp. that will be enormously useful for afghanistan in this post economic down turn that it will bring. trade with central asian rubles, pakistan and india, and focusing on ways to increase customs ref

news and install a value added tax. a value added tax in the republics help them rules an increase of 2% to 8% in terms of the amount of money that governments were able to bring in. at the macro-level we believe this is a sound way for usaid to support the transition. >> if you anticipate these kinds of things work having an afghanistan without isaf, without n.a.t.o. forces is plausible? >> well look, we all look forward to a day when we can sift afghanistan, and it's a peaceful afghanistan that defends it's own space, governor its own space and governs justly. but there is a transition to be had. i think we'll continue to

transition, and yeah, i think it is feasible. i think it's a positive way to look at the future. >> so should the american taxpayer at this stage of the game, we've been on the ground 12 and a half years have any confidence that money being spent in in that country is being spent well, wisely and accountbly? >> they should. the news reports sometimes to the contrary. we do assessments. we identify weaknesses we don't spend any of the money in afghanistan until we have mechanisms in place to make sure we know where the money is going and what it's doing. with respect to the reports that come out, i'll note, they defy risks and that's a large part of what we do. if afghanistan was a perfectly

safe to invest your money, we wouldn't need to be there. >> the special inspector general for the afghan region released the report that said none were places they could disperse money and be confident that it was spent confidently. >> the report we cited is our own. ministerial audits of their capabilities, and we identify the weaknesses that this report enumerated. but we also identified mitigating measures for every every one of these weaknesses.

we maintain control over the funds from the beginning of the process until it actually gets to the person that receives the funds, and we have transparency in the process as well. it gives us a chance to help these ministries to learn what it's like and learn what it takes to minister large amounts of money, and to do so transparently and accountbly. >> they called this new infusion with these new projects the biggest gamble the usaid has ever made. is that fair? >> it pre-dates me. they wouldn't have done this we weren't confident. i'm called to do this under oath and i won't do anything without being able to say yes, this is something that we should have done and we did it as

responsebly as we could. >> thanks for being with us. we'll take a short break. when we come back we'll talk about the state of play in afghanistan today, and what kind of country is waiting out there in the future when n.a.t.o. forces pack up and go. this is inside story.

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dollars and cents to powerful storytelling. >> we are at a tipping point in america's history! >> al jazeera america. there's more to it. >> welcome back to inside story. i'm ray suarez. american and n.a.t.o. forces are leaving afghanistan by the end of the year despite pressure by the united states, afghan president hamid karzai has not signed a bilateral agreement that would keep some troops in the country. we continue our conversation about the way forward in afghanistan. joining me for that here in washington, senior central asia

fellow at the new america foundation. he wafrom new york, director ofn afghan women, a group that promotes women's rights in afghanistan. and scholar resident at middle east institute. he was in afghanistan and pakistan analyst at the state department. i want to begin this part of the program with a quick thumbnail sketch your read during this tense time between the u.s. and afghanistan over what the future would look like. ambassador, let's start with you. >> first let me say that afghanistan today in 2014 is very different from the afghanistan of '01 or '02. they have come with a lot of progress and a lot of hope along

the way that has turned into uncertainty and worry about the future partly because of the fact that the u.s. and afghanistan relations are right now sort of in a cold war state. i think people want certainty, what the road looks like because they wouldn't want to lose the gains of the last 12 years and they think the international community has invested heavily in afghanistan. the afghans are also paid a very dear price. after paying the price for the last 35 years, and this country has been destroyed several times over. this is a time where they feel they have a historic opportunity to rebuild afghanistan, it's institutions and give its people hope. we're at a crossroads where we need to make the right decisions in order to go on the right path. >> if you and i were to go back home and talk to the women on whose behalf you're working, what would they tell us about

how they feel the country is doing? >> well, as ambassador, a lot of progress has been made. afghanistan cannot be compared to the year 2002 afghan. it's a different country, different environment, a lot of progress has been played. but at the same time this is a very fragile time for afghanistan. we're in transition. anything could happen. if the troops leave abruptly like the soviets left, civil war could start all over again. but if it is done on a gradual way, then we'll have a chance. afghan women, they're afraid of what's going to happen in the future. we have no idea what's going to happen. the security agreement has not been signed yet. everybody wants it signed. i want it signed. the women of afghanistan want it signed. the soldiers who fight this war against the taliban want it

signed. when that is signed we will know what the plans are, living in uncertainty is scary for us. >> what we're looking at here is so many uncertainties here. i'm picking up with ambassador omad speaking. what is different really today is that stakeholders. if one goes back to the 90 days, there was no stated affect. what we've had in the last 12 years now are of people who have a stake in afghanistan. these are people who want to stand up now. we shouldn't diminish the importance of these people because ultimately these are the people on which the future of

the country is going to rest, and they'll say you helped us come back here. now work with us. don't walk away from us. unfortunately, we're in a situation now because of hamid karzai's remarks that, i certainly fear this, that he may precipitate an action on our part. >> everyone wants this bilateral security agreement signed. it's understood to be important for the future of your country, yet here we are months into the negotiation, and apparently no closer to getting it signed. >> well, we're not closer with hamid karzai. everybody else in afghanistan, from the 11 presidential candidates, who will be going to the ballots in about six weeks' time, to the military of the

country, to the women, to the intelligentsia, not because there is anything special for them in it, but because the country is not ready to stand on its own, especially after a war for the last few years, they've been standing on their own the last year or so, and they know that they need u.s.-n.a.t.o. assistance for a few more years. otherwise, they could fall apa apart. everybody knows that almost 85% to 90% of the budget is international assistance. you're going to have a huge collapse, and you may end up having a security crisis. this is what the afghans want to

prevent this from happening. the united states has spent so much and invested so much in afghanistan, and others around the world. >> and when people in that region look photographer what happened when the united states left iraq with no continued presence there, did they see iraq as their own case, or do they worry that the same thing could happen? >> there are real concerns that this is what we would be looking at. certainly it sends the message here that without international presence it will be very hard to stabilize this country. we're all trying to figure out what is motiving hamid karzai. we're really in a quandary lear to explain. is it just that's a hard bargainer, a clever guy at the negotiating table. is he trying not to demonstrate that he is a puppet of the united states or anybody else, or does he have perhaps some

other thoughts and my own view he's contemplating the fact that he might bring afghanistan ahead without us because he feels he has alternatives, particularly if he can end the insurgeoncy through a political settlement. >> in the last ten years when forces have left certain parts of the country, it has been seen from the outside that things have been particularly hard on women. schools were destroyed and girls were chased home. businesses were emptied out by the old guard coming back in and reasserting their control over areas. is this burden going to be heavier on women if there is no continued progress in your country? >> absolutely.

>> whenever a conflict starts women and children are the first victims. we've seen that all over the country in the eastern conferences, the northern provinces, we have seen women being threatened more and more. we've seen cases of stoning of women, killings, and burning of schools. so all that is happening all over the country. >> we'll take a short brake. when we come back we'll talk about the development work going on in the country. what has worked, what hasn't, and what has the afghan people taken away to rebuilding their society? this is "inside story." i must begin my journey,

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>> welcome back to inside story. i'm ray suarez. the war is coming to an end in afghanistan. arealations between the u.s. and afghanistan are tense at the moment, and the situation on the ground remains very dangerous. a suicide car bomber attacked leaving two civilian contractors died. we're looking ahead at what happens when n.a.t.o. forces leave by the end of the year, and marvin weinbaum you mentioned before the break that perhaps there is a way to broker peace without the use of nato forces, is that realistic? can you really broke arrest peace with the taliban? >> i don't believe so, no, but it doesn't mean that he doesn't believe so, and that there are people in the country who at least think that if you could some how break the whack of the insurgency through not necessarily negotiating with all of them out there, but enough of

them that you create the defections that would then begin a process of reintegration. we have had real success now in terms of building up very large security force. it's up to now over 350,000 troops. this is extraordinary effort. what's really at stake here now is the fact that without a bsa, without a security agreement, the likelihood that ther there l be funding which would pay the salaries of these soldiers is really in jeopardy. and if that breaks apart then i think we're then seeing the disintegrate of the state that is without--without a security force that remains intact. >> what would you expect to happen if the taliban was made

part of a coalition government? >> wow, that's a question that i don't even want to think about. >> the taliban cannot be trusted. they're terrorists. they're killing civilians every day on a daily basis. there is suicide-bombings around the country. on one than they're killing people. on the other hand president karzai is trying to negotiate with them. it's not doable, and it won't work. if there are any kind of negotiations, it will be on the backs of afghan women. we're against it. we don't even want to contemplate that. >> ambassador, there must be some remaining support in the country for the taliban or else they couldn't survive. they wouldn't be able to be rooted in the soil of the place. they would be harassed and chased away from all the places that they are. >> we know that the taliban

backbone, the taliban human beings and bases are situated across the border in pakistan. the leadership remains in pakistan with their families. there are foot soldiers and lower level commanders who are in afghanistan. sometimes they use harsh means to subb subjugate people, the st to this so-called taliban is no more than maybe 7% to 10% at best. this means overwhelmingly that the afghan people are not for the taliban. we experienced the taliban in a 1990s.

we need to solidify the gains. make sure that those who are willing to participate in this new afghanistan. >> thank you all for being with us today. that brings us to the and of this edition of inside story. it's great to have you with us, as well. the program may be over but the conversation continues. we want to hear what you think about the issues on today's show or any day's program. you can log on to our facebook page, accepted us your thoughts on twitter. our handle is aj inside story am or you can reach me directly @ray suarez news. in washington, i'm ray suarez.

china's one child policy has quoted controversy, from accusations of the state confiscating children, to forced abortions. today it is being blamed for a declining fertility rate and a major gender i