vavino calling the president the antichrist and threatened to shoot him. he faces sentencing. for more information on our headlines stories go to www.aljazeera.com. . >> the man who used to run ukraine tells the country's army don't follow the orders from the new guys in charge. developments in ukraine continue thick and fast. it's the inside story. >> hello, i'm ray suarez. ousted ukrainian president viktor yanukovych continues to speak to the country from next

door russia. insisting that he's still legally in charge. meanwhile the regional parliament in the crimean parliament declaring that it will become an independent state if the referendum approves the move. di by day the russian authorities in crimea are tightening ties to russia and dismantling them with ukraine. for more than 20 years since the break up of the soviet union and 60 years since crimea became part of ukraine. in 60 days dueling accusations have been flying quick and fast. the interim prime minister said

that crimea is part of the ukraine, period. to keep track of the players, yes, do you need a score card. it is. ukraine's interim leaders create a national guard in an effort to stand up against russian aggression in the crimea region. members of parliament said that it has fewer than 6,000 combat ready troops and an air force outgunned 100-1. while no shots have been fired the war of words has taken a tough tone. >> i remain the only legitimate president of ukraine and the commander in first time since tn

intervention in ukraine and made a defiant statement from the russian town. he blames his foes for what happened in crimea right now. >> ukraine is going through tough times now. usual actions led to crimea breaking away so that even the gun southeastern people's demand to respect them and their rights. >> a vote is scheduled for sunday that could determine if crimea will remain part of ukraine or return to russia. in 1954 the peninsula on the black sea was given to ukraine by then ussr leader nikita kruschev. and remained part of the country when ukraine gained its independence from moscow in 1991. tuesday th they warned crimea nt to go forward on a vote on sunday whether or not to become part of russia.

moment yatsenyuk will meet with president obama at the hous whie house on wednesday. >> i ask you according to the request of the american side to invite the secretary of state kerry who wants to come to russia to continue their consultations. >> he agreed previously but calling back on saturday and told me he would like to postpone the trip, as he said. >> the state department had a totally different view of proposed meeting. the spokeswoman said russia has not shown seriousness. russia would first need to meet u.s. demands that it recognized the new ukrainian government, stop military maneuvers and annexation attempts of crimea.

foreign minister lavrov said russian powers want an agreement on the conflict in ukraine. >> we're not passively taking advance of our colleagues. we've prepared a counter offer. it aims to bring ukrainian situation into the framework of international law that would serve the interest of all ukrainians taking into account the deep crisis of this country. >> they met to discuss sanctions against russia that could include travel bans and freezing the assets of individual russians. french foreign minister said that sanctions could be imposed as early as next week if russia eases tensions the sanctions would be put on hold. but at the moment there are no signs president putin will bow to economic or diplomatic pressure from the west. the proof is that russian troops are still firmly in control of crimea.

>> for the latest on the situation in crimea we're joined by al jazeera's jennifer glass. they moved on to something more practical. >> really, a very, very clear sign from the leaders here in crimea, that they are taking their own path. the airport was closed to flights from kiev today, closed to anywhere but moscow. a plight was turned around are from kiev. the only planes going to and from moscow. i was told to keep radicals from coming in from kiev.

>> as you've been reporting are there outward signs very clear to an outer like a reporter that this is a place that is preparing to separate itself from its long-term partner? >> well, they're getting ready for the referendum. in the town hall they're getting for the election areas. the ballots are printed, and they saying they're going to be ready for this ref republican r. they're giving out information of where to vote, how to vote, how the ballot will look like and those kinds of questions. people are definitely getting ready for this vote. it seems a forgone conclusion.

if crimeans vote, the first thing that crimea will do is declare independence and then ask to be part of russia. that seems to be aimed at heading off claims that it will be legal. they're citing kosovo breaking away from serbia. moscow was unhappy with that one when that happened. they said if that's right, if it's okay for kosovo to breakaway then crimea should have the same rights. of course, it's seen as an entirely different matter. >> do they see themselves in the capitol almost as equivalent as the founding force of the birth of a new state before joining an old one. >> reporter: it's so they can

say we have a referendum. people decided to be independent. as a sovereign state we've made the decision to go back to russia. a lot of ethnic russians, who make up 60% of the population, say they want to go back to russia. they say they have not been listened to in the time of being part of ukraine. many felt it was a huge mistake when it was given away to ukraine in 1953. many thought it was a symbolic step and it's always been a complicated issue. this city is an important, strategic city. in soviet times this was a closed city, you wouldn't even come here, and it's home to home and ukrainian black sea fleet. it's a complicated situation. you have the ukrainian sailors blockaded on their ships, and across the crimea peninsula.

the real question is what is going to happen to them? how are they going to square that away if crimea declares independence, what happens to those men who pledged their allegiance to the ukraine. >> we'll take a short break. when we come back we'll focus our discussion on russian president putin, are his motives ad hoc, part of a broader strategy or a bit of both. this is inside story. stay with us.

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the world. >> this is a pretty dangerous trip. >> security in beirut is tight. >> more reporters. >> they don't have the resources to take the fight to al shabaab. >> more bureaus, more stories. >> this is where the typhoon came ashore. giving you a real global perspective like no other can. >> al jazeera, nairobi. >> on the turkey-syria border. >> venezuela. >> beijing. >> kabul. >> hong kong. >> ukraine. >> the artic. real reporting from around the world. this is what we do. al jazeera america. >> welcome back to "inside story." i'm ray suarez. the whole political crisis in ukraine began when ousted president yanukovych rejected economic help from europe in

favor of aid from russia and president vladimir putin. while putin showcased the new russia on the world stage during the olympics, ukraine lurched suddenly back towards the west. we want to continue our discussion on ukraine by trying to understand putin's world-view. joining us now, nadia duke at the national endowment for democracy. in california, kathryn stoner, director of the program international policy studies at stanford, university. and in washington, molly mccue, she was an adviser to georgia i from 2008 to 2013. nadia, is what we're watching right now policy being made on the fly, or does vladimir putin have a very specific outcome in mind, and did he when all this

began? >> you actually used a phrase a describing the sochi olympics saying a new russia was on display. there is a new ideology that has been in the making for quite some time to put russia back on the world stage as a power for recognize connereckoned with. and his believe is that he's moving russia towards, creating a russian world. he believes that ukraine and incidentally belarus also belongs to this russian world, and any ethnic russians that happen to be beyond the current border of russia also belong to that world. this is the direction he is heading in, and this has been in the planning for a long time, for a while.

>> katherine, do you agree? even if the demonstrations in the maidan had not taken place, vladimir putin was going to try to get his arms around ukraine? >> i think nadia is right to some degree, but i disagree a little bit as well. i think he does have a perspective that his goal is to, when he came back in office i in 2012, and he'll probably be in office for another 20 years, his goal is to re-establish russia as an international pow power, and historically it has been that. and i think he took advantage of an opportunity that presented itself. i think in that sense he was impulse opportunistic, but it does fit in this view of russi russia's natural sphere of influence, and needing to create a bulwark against western

incursion. >> we saw some of this in moldova, where the russian administrations of the day gave aid and comfort to a breakaway province inside of a russian-speaking area inside moldova. we've seen this in small areas of ca caucasus. >> i think since the disillusi n of the soviet union, russia has been able to manipulate these territories that will stay u unstable.

the excuse given is usually similar, they're protecting an ethnic or national minority or russian minority in these places. it's been a tool used, and there has not been a mechanism to resolve or advance these conflicts. and because that have it's a tool that putin continues to use for countries who are looking to the west or to other partnerships more under his thumb of control. at the same time the tactics in crimea are new. this is a piece of territory that is much more significant in the move being made. i don't think it's unfinished business in the sense that this is a piece of land that russia should own and be part of russia. the analogy to kosovo is so disingenuous. there is no ethnic cleansing.

if you want to say that ukraine is a nation divided, which i don't gra agree with, but it dos have a new government that is represented by the pro-western side rather than the pro-russia side it would say that the representatives of crimea have been fairly represented. >> maybe vladimir putin has been emboldened that he has been able to push around these smaller places. ukraine smaller in left compare to countries in the outside world, but they're o pro russian on the ground in the peninsula, and it looks like they're getting away with it. >> in going to russia you can't but help hear experts giving their view. i've been at meetings where they say yes, putin will push as far as he's allowed to go.

and so far there has not been the wherewithal, the ability or the instruments to push back or to stop him. he--my thought is that actually he is very opportunistic, but at the same time he often has several scenarios going at the same time. i think one scenario was to insure that yanukovych stayed- stayed--the ex-president yanukovych that we just saw on the screen, that he should stay as president of the ukraine. i think all of the last three to four months of the popular up rising on the maidan and some of the provocations that happened there fit into the scenario of trying to keep yanukovych as president. the russians often say that while the new government broke the 21st of february agreement, which you recall it was the three foreign ministers from eastern europe who came to kiev, and also a representative from

russia, and the opposition leaders and president yanukovych signed an agreement. this, i think, was the open door for president putin to keep control. however, russia didn't actually sign that agreement, which is kind of the interesting thing. that failed. yanukovych was shaken out, fled, actually, fled from his country. and so there is also the scenario of taking over crimea, which we see unfolding as much as incrediblous as many of us are, but unfolding in front of our eyes, and there doesn't seem to be any way to stop this. >> kathryn stoner, how do you see the end game? i kept reading predictions and forecasts about where it ends. about what would be good enough, what would be sufficient for russia to then pull back from the brink. is it at this point nothing less

than a full repatriatation of crimea? >> i think we're beyond ukraine getting crimea back, unfortunately for the ukrainians. they referendum will go through. we on the u.s. side won't accept it as legitimate. the russians will view it as legitimate. the crimeans will say we're an independent country and we will decide what we want, and we deciding to back to russia. i don't think we're going to get crimea back for ukraine, unfortunately. obviously the united states is not goining to war with russia over crimea, but we can probably get a few things out of russia to calm the situation down and not go further. one of those things has to be russian recognition of the legitimacy of the new government in ukraine. mr. yanukovych ran from ukraine. he sits very bravely across the border now pretending still to be president, but even president

putin isn't saying that he wants to reinstate yanukovych as a president, even though he's saying that he was legitimately elected president, and that's true. but the fact is that he has been impeached. whether or not its constitutional is irrelevant, the fact speak for itself. there is a government in ukraine and we need russia to deal with it and speak with it. the reason why john kerry is not going over to russia to speak is because the russians won't speak to the ukrainians, and that really is a condition for moving forward at all. so that's one thing. if we can see crimea as gone, then we can ask, okay, now if we concede that, recognize the legitimacy of this new government, let's start talking to them. >> kathryn stoner at stanford university. we'll take a short break. when we come back we'll talk about the down side risk of russia even if it gets what it

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>> welcome back to inside story. i'm ray suarez. ukraine's new foreign minister will be in washington meeting with president obama on wednesday. diplomatic efforts are at a standstill. russia is facing the threat of sanctions from europe maybe in the next few days, but so far president putin has not budged. the question, of course, will he, we're talking about president putin and his motives on this edition of this program. molly, i'm wondering if rush isa is much more integrated in the economy, there are risks that didn't exist in earlier eras for unilateral action on the part of russia. >> i think yes and no. the russian economy is much more integrated in the rest of the world. but it's also important to remember that one of the first

things that president putin did when he came back to office in 2012 was to announce to all of the bangers and olagarts and others in his cabinet that this was time for russians to bring their money home. no more banks in cypress or london. if you want to be a part of russia, you need to bring your money back to russia. it makes us wonder if he knew what was happening to russia. it is some extent what protection them that they have connections. where europe is hesitant in considering banking sanctions. >> maybe they brought back money but they can't bring back english premiere leagues, soccer teams, luxury flats and goods that exist in new york, paris and london. >> no, for sure, that's true. inside of russia is not russia of 1991 any more. but i think it is still--it's

not as connected to the rest of the world as everyone else would like. the disconnect between putin and his people is something that is often commented on, and that remains the case. it's not necessarily representative government. the elections are always in question. whatever putin wants to say about the treatment of russians near and abroad, i don't think the treatment of russians at home get much attention from him and others in government. >> kathryn stoner, if you're living in a russian-speaking community in kazakhstan, latvia, living in belarus, living in some of these countries that used to be part of the soviet home and still home of large russian-speaking minorities, should you be nervous watching what is going on in ukraine? >> well, depending on how old you are, you might be happy to see what is going on in ukraine. you know, the russians in

ukraine, many of them feel liberated, of course, by this. this is a good thing from their perspective. ukraine has not been well governed, unfortunately, in the last 22 years, and this is why we saw the eruption in the first place of maidan over its disappointment of not signing that european agreement. some russians near and abroad will be very happy to see this happening. but the question is whether in the long run its good for russia, or do we have some leverage? i think we do have more leverage that your previous guest was noting. >> nadia, when the soviet union fell apart there were all kinds of people who found themselves on the wrong side or what they might perceive to be wrong side of borders when crimea leaves ukraine over the weekend. will there be a lot of people on the peninsula who don't want to end up with a russian passport again? >> there will be. but let me just respond to

katherine a bit about russian's rejoicing that they might be rejoining russia. i think the whole maidan movement, which was a popular up rising three months on th on the maidan. there are a lot of russian speak necessary ukraine. people in ukraine switch between ukrainian and russian all the time depending on which language you start your conversation in. as ethnic russians were suffering from the corruption as much as ukraine, so i think don't get that mixed up, but your question about is everyone on the crimean peninsula, there should be questions raised by the crimean tatars. this is an minority ethnic group and they were deported by

stalin, and they're feeling very threatened right now. >> we'll have to talk more about the ukrainian future and thank you for being with us. that brings us to the end of this edition of "inside story." in washington, i'm ray suarez. >> ...i come around that corner... >> you don't want this? >> no, i think we should do it how we would normally... no exceptions >> should i also be in the picture? >> yeah [laughs] are you alright with that? >> no, i'm alright with that... >> ok, we're just gonna have to do it right? >> yeah