okay, dave, thank you. and thank you for watching al jazerra america. i am stephanie sy. "inside story" is next and for news updates throughout the day, head to our website aljazerra.com. >> is the united states innovated iraq the united states invaded iraq and over through saddam hussein more than a decade ago and then spent years pacifying the country, hoping to leave behind a stable rebuilding nation. one of the countries main cities has fallen to gorilla fighters and the baghdad government may be losing its grip. that's the "inside story": ♪ ♪ ." ♪ ♪

hello i am ray swarr h juar. suarez.a brown university put tt of the war over $2 billion. the cost that brown estimates 134,000 iraqi civilians died in the long years of war. add security forces, aid workers and journalists, and that number leaps to between 176 and 189,000. just under 4500 american troops died in iraq. that eight-year american presence brought down the murderous government of the sadam hussein, disbanded the iraqi army. americans worked hard to rebuild the power and water systems, the civil service, the police and the army. the u.s. left iraq in 2011. after eight years and eight months unable to reach ideal with the new iraqi government for keeping troops in the country. and today, less than three years

later, the weaknesses, contradictions and unsolved riddles of creating a post saddam iraq are apparent, it's the "inside story." the prime minister of iraq has declared a state of emergency. after days of intensifying violence, some 1300 fighters from the islamic state of iraq and the levant, known as the isil, besieged the northern city of mosul, iraq's second largest city tuesday morning. in just a few hours, militants freed prisoners from jail, took control of key government buildings, and seized tv stations and banks. many iraqi soldiers and police personnel abandoned their posts, leaving large swaths of the wider province in the control of the isil. tuesday afternoon iraq's prime minister made a televised address to the nation, asking the parliament to officially

declare a state of emergency and grant him additional powers in order to regain control. >> translator: we have to declare a comprehensive mobilization and the utmost alert in political, financial, and popular capabilities to defeat terrorism and bring life to normal. in all areas occupied by terrorists either mosul or any other city. >> the isil is a splinter group of al qaeda and has since the departure of u.s. forces risen as one of the most powerful sunni jihadist groups in the region in neighboring syria's civil war the isil's insurgents, are part. the financial backing is still unclear. in washington the white house has no plans to send troops but plans to sends more weapon to his help iraq's government. >> this is a situation that is very serious and one we are concerned b we'll continue our important relationship in terms of providing some security and

military assistance to the government of iraq, but ultimately there is also a responsibility on the part of the iraqi leaders to step up to the plate here. >> mosul is the second big city to be rest wade from baghdad's control by anti-government fighters. earlier this year a combination of sunni tribal fighters and the isil took over nin fallujah. it's been the site of heavy fighters and air strikes from the iraqi military uses weapons previously supplied by the u.s. the latest decent in to regional violence further undermines the prime minister eroding reputation after years of crumbs and mismanagement of the country's security forces. many iraqis criticize the shia prime minister over his handling of the current crisis and his heavy handed approach to sunni opposition and protesters. there is concern that emergency powers would give him too much control and that could be difficult to reverse. a state of emergency can only be

declared by parliament, a meeting is scheduled thursday. ♪ ♪ after the deaths of 10s of thousands of iraqis, thousands of americans, after american tax payers borrowed and spent thrill trillions of dollars in iraq, is the country starting to unravel? earlier this afternoon i spoke with al jazerra's imran kahn in baghdad. imran, welcome to the program. thank you for joining us. for people who are just trying to get an idea of what's going on in iraq, let's begin with what is islamic state of iraq and the levant is. >> reporter: well, the islamic state of iraq and levant are a group that fight on both sides of the iraqi and syrian border. they have come to a fore after the situation di deteriorated. they were apart of another group in syria. they split in to two and decided

to take tear fight in not only in syria, but also across the border in to iraq. but realty goes back beyond that to 2006, when they were really at their height and back then they were the official al qaeda group in iraq and they were called the islamic state in iraq. they were led by one man, you may remember him, he was a huge jihadist figure here, caused a lot of trouble for the u.s. troops here, he was one of the people that pioneered the techniques of beheading and made those horrible videos where they showed behead goes live on television. eventually he was killed by a coalition of american troops here. the americans needed to have a group to fight back against isi, and what they did is they formed a group called the awakening groups, these were sunni groups that the americans trained and armed and paid for they had a tremendous amount of success with them. they were able to defeat the it lamb i can state of iraq and for a number of years, up until

really 2011, we didn't really here from any al quada groups here in iraq. but then as i say the situation in syria did he tear yates and it becomes a jihad and suddenly you have an opportunity for a group like isil to come out and say that we are now fighting a jihad and brought their jihad, their holy war here to iraq. so that's really where a group like isil comes from it doesn't come from nowhere, although it feels like that's exactly what happened. but there is a history to this. this group is much more active in iraq than syria now. >> now they are in control of mosul and that would be a big deal under any circumstances. one of the largest cities in iraq. but is it even more significant given mosul's geography, its ethnic and religious make up? >> absolutely. it was a key target for them always. it was in the north. it's a disputed city. not sure whether it's part of

iraq proper. it's a city ripe for taking over for somebody like the leader of the isil. he knows he goes in toy city toy like, which isth nikolai missed and the curds will have to get involved in it. the kurdish military forces are on stand by to come in and they are negotiating with the iraqis, it's one of those -- you've got it say it's one of those flash points really of what -- in iraq what could turn a conflict from this low-level intense conflict in to all-out sectarian war it just needs a spark. is. il hat not only been going after so mull, they are done it in a smaller city of 600,000 people, but it's where one of the most venerated shia shrines is, in 2006 that shrine was hit by al qaeda in iraq and that sparked

the sectarian war which nearly brought this country to its knees, just last week isil tried do that again now here we are in mosul where they have taken over nearly 75% of the city and it's key buildings in the city, the govern buildings, provincial buildings, banks, two tv stations rights now the situation is mosul is unprecedented we have not seen this in iraq since 2006 at least. >> is the iraqi state in any position to fight back? is it equipped, is the army professional enough? >> reporter: well, that's a very big question. with 1300 lightly armed troops. they had ak47 machine guns, rpgs and arrived in open-topped vehicles. the iraqi military ways there but when they got there the iraqi army simply abandoned their positions and, they left and isil were able to walk in

and take over the neighborhoods for a very long time the prime minister has been pleading with the americans to speed up the sale of arms, intelligence-gathering equipment. he's even asked for drones to be able to flyover various strategic cities. he's not got very much of that. he's got some, no all of you he's been for a very long time saying we need american help. nobody wants american boots back on the ground here, but they are saying, look, the americans may have left but they could help us with material support. are the iraqi army trained and developed enough to be able to deal with the threat like this? yes, they have been dealing with it for very many years, what happened in mosul, the iraqi army insists say one off and they say they will deal with any deserters. but you and military analysts and even ordinary people here, they say, well, they left. we are worried that the iraqi army simply can't deal with that. >> al jazerra imran kahn reporting from baghdad. imran, thanks for joining us.

be safe. >> reporter: no problem. we are going take a short break, and when we come back, we'll be joined by guests closely watching the situation in iraq. and talk about the dangers of neighboring states to the country. and the dangers o a toterring iq poses to its neighbors. this is "inside story."

>> i'm ali velshi, the news has become this thing where you talk to experts about people, and al jazeera has really tried to talk to people, about their stories.

we are not meant to be your first choice for entertainment. we are ment to be your first choice for the news. >> welcome back to "inside story," the united states left iraq 2 and a half years ago, and welcome back to "inside story." the united states left iraq two and a half years ago. and the country is tearing itself apart. militants from the islamic state of iraq and the levant overran the second largest city, mosul, on tuesday. iraq's prime minister, newer declared a nationwide state of medical, can the government pull the country together? joining us to discuss what the capture of mosul means and for the future of iraq and the region are from oxford england, a fellow at the middle east forum. in our washington studio, james jeffrey, u.s. ambassador to iraq from 2010 to 2012. he's a fellow at the washington institute for near east policy. and in london, director of the

iraq foundation for development and democracy. what do you make of the fact that a lightly armed group of 1300 men it's estimated, was able to take over a major iraqi city? >> well, firstly i think the points to the weakness of the iraqi security forces to engage in counter insurgency in these predominantly sunni arab areas. and i am pessimistic myself about how quickly if at all, they could completely retake mosul from the ongoing insurgents. just to say, other groups as well are actually claiming involvement in the take over, there is one called the gun genl military front. and it's actually clear that also other groups are taking advantage of this isil-led take

over i would definitely say at the minute of mosul. they are taking advantage of other areas, like two groupings also making gains against security forces. so i think it really points to the weakness in counter insurgency and particularly in urban warfare and we have seen that in fallujah as well. >> same question, what does it mean to you that a group like this has been able to take over, not just any pro vi provincial t mosul? >> it means a lot. it's a big, big failure on the part of the government to deal with the situation in iraq. the prime minister came to power for the second time on 2010. iraq was almost stable and anbar, which was center for up

rising was [inaudible] which the american helped to bring about, were taken care of. and sunni supported mall key government supported him. after four years things have deteriorated totally. the question is who is responsible for it? as usual list it's not only iraqi the americans used to do it is put the blame on somebody else, maliki put the blame on syria. at the time he advised there was no military solution for syria it should, political. unfortunately he doesn't adhere to the same principal in iraq, he dismantled what the americans help to bring about, i marginalized the sunni and tried to get rid of all sunni opponent to him. some of them were exiled, some

prisoned. and only those sunni according to leading sunni who told me, he doesn't want sunni partner, he want informers. and that's why they feel they are marginnized. second point, they feel like they joint the process heavily in 2010 they won with a big majority, 91%, but still they were denied. so in a way the arab sunni feel frustrated. they joined the political process by they say they were denied their lawful rights. they feel they were marginaliz marginalized. they failed to deliver and bring about the sunnies themselves. therefore the widespread did he september amongst sunni was not against al-maliki but against the government. >> i am going to jump in there,

because i want to turn what you just said to ambassador jeffrey. our guest in london was just describing a state that sounds from outside, if you didn't know the particular players, the particular labels, it sounds like an ungovernable place. is that the place that you left in 2012? >> "a," it's not the place i left. and "b" while i generally agree with both of our other partners here tonight, it's not an ungovernable country. 80% of iraq is either kurdish, sunni or shia arab. the isil is not going to be able to seize ground in those areas i am almost positive. what they are able to is seize ground and hold ground very effectively in the sunni areas. and this is a dramatic escalation of their capabilities. it's very, very serious. and there are many reasons for it, everything we have heard tonight is a possible reason and i think is a contributing factor, including syria training and discipline of the iraqi

forces, their equipment and the treatment of the sunni minority in iraq. but none ofless, we hav nonethee decisive action begun by the iraqis immediately or it will just get worse. >> earlier in the program when we spoke to imran kahn, he talked about worries inside iraq about the kurds getting engaged. mosul was historically a kurdish city, it's right on the border with the kurdish-governed areas. if you engage their army, does this become a wider iraqi conflict? >> not necessarily. isil in syria, for example, has been pretty careful to maintain a genera jennies fire jennies fe outbursts of violence with the kurdish there. i think they will focus primarily on defending the kurdish majority areas which includes north mosul and areas around mosul, and of course, the provinces of kurdish regional government. they will be challenged because

they are not used to facing thousands potentially of conventional-armed isil forces think but they are a good army. there is 190,000 of them. they have tanks, artillery, they'll do okay. >> is there a confessional character, that is a religious identity to the national arm any and does that complicate things as you are trying to sort all of this out? >> yes, to a degree this issue of religious identity in the security forces comes up. now to be sure, there are many -- there have been many sunni arabs recruited in to the armed forces. but i think there is also to a degree desertion. but also on associates media you see on these pro-security forces pages and people putting up banners of ali and hussein and shia slogans which really i don't think helps convince the sunni -- wider sunni population now of the army having an intent

to defend the nation as a whole rather having a narrow sectarian interest. and also there has been this issue in -- not in mosul so far, but a reliance on shia militias by [inaudible] and the better organization to limit to a degree this areas like anbar and some of them were part of the efforts which was successful to dislodge isil from there the other day. when we come back after a short break, we'll talk about what instability in iraq means too the other countries in the region and whether the instability in places like syria makes the situation in iraq even more complicated to fix. this is "inside story." >> al jazeera america presents the system with joe berlinger >> parole >> someone is going to get

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when the dust cleared in iraq, after iraqis spent years fighting the americans and each other, a cold peace settled on the country, the kurds ran a mini state in the north protected by their own fighting forces and run by a strong regional government. the majority shias settles scores and restless for control and the restless sunni regions struggled to come to terms with an iraq where everybody as a minority their leaders had once called the shots. we are looking at the civil strive in iraq this time on the program. it's a country, after all. where americans invested their lives and the u.s. invested its treasure for almost a decade. you made it clear in your earlier remarks that you hold prime minister al-maliki heavily responsible for the situation in the country now. but how much do the troubles in syria contribute to what's going on in iraq today? >> no doubt our region is

interrelated and we are affected in iraq by what happens in iran and turkey and other neighboring countries, saudi arabia and others. in syria, the irony of it, the syrian regime and the iranian cooperated together to make life difficult for the american in iraq and through them they smuggled and allowed al qaeda and other mill stand groups for fight the americans and they succeeded in making life difficult for the american to the extent that the american thought it's better to levi rack the way they left. now, again, the a sued regime changes and he is a mere dictator, he is a minority, and he is persecuting the majority. and the american watching him and not doing much to the extent instead of helping the mothers sunnies, they left them to their

means and leaving the ground to the militant sunni and they created now safe havens in the areas. accordingly, similar thing happen in iraq. however, in iraq, isil is not only the one force playing a role in iraq. it has been cooperating with at least 10 armed groups, some of them are secular, some of them are national assists but more than this and that, the main thrust of the isil are the former iraqi army officers. and this will tell you what the disbandment of the iraqi army reaped, it's those army officers -- the old army officers are fighting the new army officer and they proved the old army officer are more capable and more able to defeat than new i'm. they know the new army is

corrupt, badly trained, inefficient, and they know this very well. >> ambassador an army disbanded by the united states. does the united states have to remain engaged in iraq in order to vindicate the expenditure and the loss of life that we experienced there over the last decade? do we have to stay there because we were there before? >> no. that's absolutely the wrong -- that's sunk costs. basically what we do have to do is, first of all, maintain our credibility. and our credibility is based not on how many people we lost or how long we were there. but on the kind of relationships we have built with so many people in iraq, who rely upon us and trust us. because there are people elsewhere in the world who have similar relationships with us who see us, who we haven't spent trillions of dollars and lost thousands of people to help defend but they look at us and look at what's happening in iraq or what's happening in ukraine and way say we don't know if america is reliable, that's what's at stake here. aside from the very important

strategic issues directly related to iraq, it's america's credibility. >> the united states is getting ready to sends more weapon to his iraq. is weapons, are weapon what is that army really needs? >> i think to a certain degree, it needs to be more [inaudible] can't help if it's used in the right way. the security forces need to to reform their practices to try to get more local cooperation. so, for example, resulting to masa rests, the revenge of the operation that maliki launched last year to crack down on isil and it didn't lead to anything. at best it just meant say hundreds of innocent people being arrested. and only stirs up local resentment, a sense of -- it serves the security forces rights if they get hit by isil and other groups. so reform to win the cooperation

to either revive this war. certainly would help. to be frank, actually, i am to a degree given just how strong isil has grown in syria and iraq now. you know, could such anti-isil tribal movements and so on and rebel movements in syria as well. could that actually be coordinated without troops on the ground. i am really not so sure. i am quite skeptical to be honest. i have to stop you there. but we will continue this conversation over the coming weeks and months. gentlemen, thank you all for being with me today. that brings us to the end of this edition of "inside story." thanks for being with us. in washington, i am ray suarez. ♪ ♪

half a million people are forced from their homes as annal kylie-linked group claims more ground in northern iraq. ♪ ♪ we'll have the latest live from baghdad. hello, i am felicity and you ae watching al jazerra in london. also coming up. crack down on protests one of egypt's leading democracy activists is jailed for 15 years. india experiences its highest temperatures in 62 years. and excitement mounts ahead of the world cup in brazil, but not everyone is