iraq and it's rallies are on the move. not only taken the second city, but moving on other major cities and heading toward the capitol. a decade after the american invasion, is iraq spinning out of control and heading into civil war? it's the inside story.

and the guerilla army of. the islamic state of iraq. other irregular forces in the field are rushing to isil's side, and this force is moving from victory to victory. 11 years after united states headed to war, you will be hearing the names again, a marry, that filled the nightly news in the months and years of that long war. after americans gave so much, their lives and countless billions of dollars, those same cities are again battlegrounds as a sunni army rolled over the u.s. trained and equipped iraqi national army, and heads toward baghdad.

going too need more help from us and the international community. my team is working around the clock, to identify how we can provide the most effective assistance to that. i don't reel out anything, because we we do have a stake in making sure that these jihaddists are not getting a permanence foothold in either iraq, orser yeah for that matter. >> the situation on the ground appears to have outpaced the government. fighters have gotten much more of a foothold as events broiled thursday. heavily armed and vowing to march, the islamic state of iraq and the levan continues to gain more territory in iraq. decrete is the latest city to fall, hometown of former iraqi dictator sudan hussein, it is just

70 miles north of baghdad. the crusade gains speed just this week, after the lightening fall of mosul the second largest city. iraqi soldiers lay down arms and abandon their posts giving up ground tentatively controlled by them, after u.s. troops left. in the oil rich area of northern iraq, the semiautonomous kurdish state center it's own to defend the city. as forces threaten iraqi troops once again, and they abandonment their posts. after hours of fighting the kurdish troops were able to push out the sunni militants leaving northern iraq essentially cut off from baghdad. in these two days the situation has deteriorated. the southern part has been in a bad situation, after the iraqi army left their positions we came here to take care of these places. we came here because of

our beloved people, after the iraqi army left these places. >> north fighters sent half a million residents of mosul fleeing their homes. militants took control of the city earlier this week. >> we were afraid for our children. iraq has collapsed. all the troops left. >> residents took bags and boxes of belongings with them, the displaced families arrived at a united nations refugee camp. it has all the makings of a burgeoning humanitarian crisis. the advances mean the insurgents now control large swaths of northern iraq, and threaten the capitol. it has been answered by jihaddist far and wide, they already have a foothold in syria, effectively wiping out the border with iraq. now, two crisis poor tracted civil war, and iraq slipping into chaos, have merged. >> i don't know what the president is being told.

but what i heard today scared the hell out of me. >> the options that we have become fewer and fewer as this success the isis continues. >> this is not the time for a blame game. this is a time for both sides to come together. >> i think the american people do not have an appetite for sacrificing our troops, our precious treasure first and foremost, and to be engaged in a conflict there. >> we are 100-miles from baghdad. what's the president doing. taking a nap. >> in the short term, we have to deal with what clearly is an emergency situation in iraq. >> the president said there were military options but didn't say what they were. the new york times reports that in the last month, iraqi prime minister requested u.s. air strikes and drone attacks against the iraqi surgeons, those requests were rebuffed. the president said the iraqi government needs to seek an inclusive

political solution, and called this a wake up call for the government. but 2 1/2 years after american troops left iraq, it's clearly a challenging wakeup call for the united states too. >> at this point, with an ineffective national army in the field, and the militias the u.s. pressure to stand down, getting ready to rejoin the fight, what's washington's next move? that's the inside story. joining us for that conversation. senior fellow at the center for american progress, senior fellow and editor of the long war journal, at the foundation for the defense of democracies. and lathe kuba, senior director at the national endowment for middle east and north africa section, he was a spokesman for the iraqi government. does this army, this irregular force heading

toward baghdad, represent a serious threat. both to the city and to the national government. may also introduced serious bombing attacks. it already has a presence and impact there. both the army is the police will react to this, the key thing to watch is whether it is a unified reaction from the iraqi government, or if it is more irregulars like the patricia. reigniting their presence, and i think that is a dangerous scenario. >> how do you see it?

does this force represent a threat both to the city of baghdad, as a military objective, and to the national government. >> i concur with brian. this force does indeed threaten the security of the viability of the iraqi state, how, the further advances south ward, and also advances from the west, in the province. the more it is going to meet resistence, it is now getting into the shiite dominated heart land, of iraq. and i expect militias and the military, the police to regroup in baghdad, already seeing this happening. in the city just north of baghdad, because the -- isil is threatening the mosque, and they actually stopped the security forces have stopped from entering so we may -- i think they are starting to stiffen a little, how -- >> it is not done with it's advance, with more

to come. >> lathe, i think if we had had this conversation, before, a lot of people would have with said no, they can't take mos ukrainiansl either. there is an iraqi national army there, is it a mistake to underestimate this force, and it's competence. >> well, i think that there is more to come, with those advances they have made, the force, the strength, is going to be amplified and magnified by many many folds. i think they have been grossly underestimated. i think many policies circles including a u.s. force, iraq maybe can live with another fringe group. here is there, i think what they did not realize, this is no longer a terrorist group. this is an army of ten to 15,000. they have command centers communication centers. they have supplies of advanced rocket launchers and missles. very good intelligence system, they have managed to move into these areas,

but more importantly, i think there are waves of car bombs and baghdad will continue. but the biggest threat is their likely to accelerate a dynamic of sectarianism in iraq, the vacuum the security vacuum that is now helped by according raykies. iran started to move in. the mali shas and that will only accelerate the polarization. so the threat to iraq as a society, as a state, with an army -- has reached it's peek, and i worry about the ramification. of the emergence. of is,il. >> before they fell. the united states did not honor requests from prime minister to provide air cover. does that have to be rethought in the light of these events, them taking some pretty sizable iraqi cities and holding them. >> yeah, absolutely.

much of the province, and as well as which is just on the outskirts and the government has asked the u.s. for support, and the u.s. has denied it. so this was telegraphed this entire event. the u.s. needs to seriously reconsider getting involved if it is serious about controlling the large portions of iraq. it is going to happen. it isn't going to be over the horizon air strikes. transportation, these are the things that the iraqi military and police forces really are lacking. the things that sustain them in the field. but i don't think this is going to happen. also, by the way, i think they would need the help

of the kurdish forces to confront as well with. and -- in order for this to be successful. but president obama i don't believe he has the will to actually deploy forces back in iraq. set up an air base and do what needs to be done. >> is this a president obama will question? or an american people will question? i think the will in question here, is the iraqi leadership. i think it is really important, they are going to be the first line response in how they react, and how they have react have had a much bigger impact. they should reconsider for some form of air support and perhaps even drone strikes and things like this. i also think they will likely calibrate those requests according to how the iraqi government responds to it's own internal diem thattics.

i think the thing that has preventing the administration from engaging here, particularly over the last few months, in the way that malachi wanted to is that the fears taking one side in essentially sectarian civil war. now, there's a different dynamic here with this group. but it wants to act in a way that has as much as possible, a co's zavion fied national response. from the iraqi government. in terms of reliable partners i think that's one thing to look at. i think that's what the discussions are right now. with a force that withered and took off their uniforms and allows equipment that the u.s. and u.s. taxpayers gave, can we with rely on iraqis before we with come in, and i think that's a key metric. >> we are going to fake a short break, and when we come back, you may have

noticed all of our guests talks around other forces coming to the floor, the kurdish, the shiite militias, is iraq gearing up for a much bigger war? it's the inside story.

welcome back to inside story. as important as consequential as the events in iraq this week

have been, the story isn't just about iraq. the isil forces are tied to the civil war in syria as well, fighting the asaad government which is backed by the big shiite power iran. the government in baghdad is also close to the tehran government, even as it looks to the americans the great satan in tehran's eyes for help. now, is this going to force some people into alliances who aren't necessarily partners. >> i think you are having two different agendas and two different players. i think iran has been very strategic in how it is managing iraq. it had built so many challenges into iraq. culture, security, commercial, and otherwise. and the current dynamic of polarization, plays in its favor. it puts the shiites in a corner where the curds

had seized territory, and the sunni areas that are now under the control, has become a threat to baghdad, and this is just an instinctive feeling among iraqis as they need to take support from whoever gives it to them. so iran's standing there, literally, consolidating it's influence. i think on the other hand, the u.s. approach to iraq so far has been -- they are not very plugged in, and they are approaching fit a distance. but the reality is, iran had has developed so much influence inside iraq. i think at the end of the day, current events are playing so much in it's favor. unfortunately the state of iraq is withering. >> is the united states being put in the position, of supporting a

sunni insurgent army in syria, against an iranian ally? and supporting an iranian ally in iraq, a shiite led government. >> well, i think if you approach a complex region without the strategy, and if the strategy is to calibrate your positions on peace meal bases, you will end up doing contradicting things. and i think there is a power volume currently in the middle east. over the last few years the players, the curds, everybody, they have realized that it is a power volume, and now evacuated power is probing to rebalance and redraw this fear. and i think iraq is a bit surprised and it is now attracting all these forces and so yes, they are contradicting. and yes, isil is the product of what is -- the fact that we let the fire many syria goes on for so

long. one of the outcomes is what we are seeing? >> given that set of challenges, and the almost contradictory stances, at first glance, that the united states seemed to be taking in these two countries? >> yeah, you know, look, he is 100% correct, the u.s. has not approached the middle east. with the frame work, i think the withdraw from iraq, and the unwillington seriously negotiate with the government, in late 2011, this is what has put us in this situation. first and foremost, the u.s. needs to step back. and rethink what is our strategy, what is your goals the ever the middle east. i do think in the case of iraq, the u.s. needs to rethink it's complete disengangment. even if that is thinking

on a tactical level, or below the level of strategy, they have to absolutely have to step the tide of i.s.i.l., in iraq, as well as is in syria, because these groups are present a direct threat to the united states. but one thing, if the u.s. is kept malachi at arms length, and that has pushed the malachi government into the arms of iran. if iran getted involved overtly, fist of all, it's going to be the beginning of the real civil war. i think that's where we see the tensions. but secondly, the u.s. will have an option or have no other option other than to not help iraq. because they cannot back iraq -- >> let me throw that to brian, when the former u.s. ambassador was on, he talked about is sunk cost problem, is the united states policy now

somewhat tied to the fact that we with were with there for so long spent so much money, lost so many lives is that going to play some part in directing our options now? and our goals in. >> i think it may be a miner part, but the bigger part is the fact that iraq is central to a region that is in transition, and in turmoil. and i think iraq today still has great potential to be a pivotal power. despite the turmoil that they have described. other forces outside trying to fight their proxy wars inside. the fact that iraq is a multisectarian and ethnic society, the fact that millions of iraqis just a few weeks ago, shows up in the face of this violence, to vote in elections in a turn out that was with larger than the egypt's most recent elections. as grim as it looks today, the main goal should be how do we make a long term partner, and

be in alignment. it will require the things that i think we all agree. s much more elbow greece on the part of the united states. what formed that text, we might disagree on here or there, but in essence, we with can't give up on iraq, otherwise the region could go down this path. we will take another short break, when we come back, talk about a future iraq that precedes from the situation, as brian was discussing that we with find ourselves in today, this is inside story, stay with us.

increasing resistence from shiiteer fighters? even if iso can't take the capitol, can it continue to destabilize an already shakedy iraq?

with the war in syria, and the war in iraq threatening to turn into one single regional war, with the formation of a sunni supra national state, one of the possible outcomes, do we have to rethink what kind of iraq the world can tolerate at the end of this in is a lewisly fed rated state inside the old borders, okay? a good enough iraq. >> yeah, it certainly has to be considered at this point. how, kit not be a lewisly con fed rated iraq where one portion is being controlled by jihaddist group that one of the worst terrorists insurgency groups on the planet.

after they are done taking care of business at home, they will turn to the outside to conduct attacks. so first and foremost, they have to be stamped out. it is nos acceptable for it to cab up iraq to include a government. >> do you agree with with that? >> i completely agree with with that. i think the symbol must be made by the iraqis themselves. and as i noted they are millions of iraqis showed up in national elections and i think there's a strong force. there may be other forces. we see this in the kurdish areas for greater autonomy, and that may come. we node to isolate these, so that the political leadership in iraq, really makes the bargains that they need to make that reflect the will of the people. and that's the real question. is yes, there's a question about p.m.

leadership, but right now the spotlight is shining brightly on prime minister malachi, and everybody that is is part of the negotiation. this is your country, these are your people, what does this country need right away. you have heard that isi lie can't be a part of a future government, but what can work? >> we with have always tried to address the question within a very limited timeframe. action to the moment, the reality is just look at iraq. 30 years ago, it's armied managed to stop iran for eight years. that's the army today. cannot stop hundreds of fighters. of course, this cannot be true. there is something wrong in bag call. i think the fact that so

many people turn out, over 60% people vote, and they brought in new faces. but the power sharing and the country has not changed and the same people are still empowered. it tells me the system there is something fundamentally wrong with the political system. the same political system that we supported and we very much wanted, foo put the country on the right frac is not working. unless there is change in politics in baghdad, then a new generation of leaders are there, unfortunately, large numbers of iraq will sufficient terrorist failure of their poll sixes. >> and the american role in the near term? well, it dependents on the u.s.

can the u.s. afford seeing isil moving to jordan. which is very much on the horizon. can they afford seeing iran expanding and consolidating inside. s that an acceptable prize for december endangerment. those are questions and they need to be responded to. nonon piecemeal basis. >> gentlemen, good to talk to you all. that brings us to the end of this edition, thank you for being with us, in washington, i'm ray swarez.

>> nogales, arizona. a bus has arrived filled with people being deported from the united states. >> right now we're headed to san juan bosco, a shelter here in nogales where the mexican immigration authorities have picked the people who were just deported, they take them there so they have a place to stay on their first night back in mexico. >> many thought 2013 would be the year when congress finally