helping people with lessonsville uble in and out. and a reminder you can keep up to date with all the news on the website. the address, of course, aljazeera.com. that's aljazeera.com. >> hello, i'm ray suarez. you'll probably hear it a thousand times between this moment and election day. turn out is going to be low. nobody comes out for the mid terms. november's election could be the lowest turn out midterm--ever. is that carved in stone? if they wanted increased voter participation could they do it? that's the "inside story." >> hello, i'm ray suarez.

you'll probably hear it a thousand times between this moment and election day. turn out is going to be low. nobody comes out for the mid terms. okay, it's a common-place observation, but is it a verdict? does it have to be that way? today on the program a political strategy session. candidate or party or campaign decided that low level of participation isn't good. not for them, the party, or the country. is there really anything that anyone could do about it? we'll talk about the tools, techniques that might break people out of their current willingness to take a pass on the next election. let's begin with a look at the situation as it stands today. in less than 50 days voters across the country will head out to the polls for the midterm elections. deciding key governor races, house races and the potential change in who controls the u.s. senate.

in the run up run and democratic campaigns alike are ramping up spending , boosting candidates and blasting opponents. >> washington, d.c. the land of politicians, lawyers, and lobbyists, and mary landr us $2 million home. easy to forget in a place like that. >> what makes the mid terms different is it's traditionally low voter turn out. in the 2008, the year that president barack obama was voted president. in 2012 another presidential year voter turn out bounced back to nearly 54% of eligible voters. low turn out in the mid terms has been a trend in u.s.

politics since the 1840's. contributes that to the wow factor . >> it does really feel just like yesterday when i was last here at the harkin steak fry or as my husband prefers to call it, the stir fry. >> reporter: but if you know turn out is going to be low what is the best strategy? more money into tv with attack ads and/or modern tools with digital or turn out the ground base. many are saying that we've gone without the turn out for so long that it's been considered a rule

rather than considered for change. ask americans and they'll tell you their concern about questions of war and peace, jobs, the economy, cost of college. they're not any less concerned than previous election years. if the science was pulling them off the sidelines how would you go about it? is anyone willing to try? joining us for this strategy session is the mayor , rick berry, scott walker, and kentucky senator rand paul. our guests, professor, let me start with you. why is it that it's a commonplace and accepted notion

that nobody votes in the mid terms? >> well, it's absolutely true that fewer people vote in the midterm election than in presidential election, but i would take just a little bit of contest with that setup which is on one of the reasons why we had lower turn out in recent elections has nothing to do with things we can really change, which is that 1972, 92% of th the percentage were not he will available to vote. now we don't see real decline over time. it's true that midterm electorates have lower turn out than presidential election. for whatever reason people are drawn to that election. they see the importance of the presidency. there is free media talking about the presidency. it draws people in to that election.

we don't get that same level of intensity in midterm election except in the few contested races. >> when congress has been voting on whether to authorize american military action abrought abroad, the things that were pressing us in 2012 and 2008 are still pressing us today. let's put aside congress for a minute. you go down to the local elections where actions are very important to people's lives. the school system, the roads that are going to be built around neighborhoods. that's where we see the lowest turn you had. it's odd that you find this pattern where the president, which is most removed from people's lives, has the highest turn out. but those when you get closer to

home from senate elections and congressional elections down to the local level, you see declining rates of turn out. >> if the assignment was not only winning for your guy or gallon bu gal, is it oh possible to help people do it? >> i think it depends on the race and the candidates in that race. one of the reasons that i think that pool take a strong interest in the presidential and other races is because in the presidential we really see big generally big personalities, often large larger than life characters who fit in as a celebrity and people you feel like you get to know personally because they're everywhere. they're on late night talk shows and free media covering them. depending on the candidate

you're working with you may be able to replicate that. there are some times when campaign advisers are taking a fairly interesting person and presenting that person in the totality to the electorate. there is a lot you can do in terms of getting your data , calling people, making sure that they turn out. and grassroots and doing more and using digital technology, and using standard ewessed communication techniques to get people interested in the race. >> ari, you have the wind at your back in the presidential year. the whole culture is engaged in this coming election. would it be prohibitively expensive to change the shape of the electorate for a midterm fall race? >> it wouldn't be the interest

of the campaign but the campaign is getting the voters out. the game is not interested in increasing the broader electorate at large. they're interested in the voters who are going to vote for me to get to the polls. if you're a democrat, you want minority, young people and certain elements of old people. you want single women, and you don't want, frankly, old white men. so a campaign, the problem is that the game is not about turning out voters. it's about turning out the right voters. i think democracy works better when more voters turn out. >> ari the idealist just walked in. how are you going to drive those numbers in november? >> first, you can do things to encourage voting.

frankly there has been an effort made among certain elements to discourage people from voting, to scare people away, intimidate people and eliminating those limits would go a long way. encouraging voting is a civic responsibility. if you were to really teach civics as something that should be innate, and voting isn't something that we have a right to, but it's an obligation to being a cities and educating people over the long term this is an obligation, you can do. it's not something that you can accomplish 60 days before the election but it is something of value convincing every citizen that they're obliged to vote. you have to serve on jury duty, pay taxes and vote. >> i want to say two things. that's correct.

and in addition to that we've seen certain instances where people have not been regular participants in the electoral system where they have been brought in as candidates. they're a little bit abnormal and out of the main treatment. when we talk about rand paul, who i consulted for. when you looked at people ho voted for him, they were not people who routinely voted in elections because they didn't feel there were candidates who represented their political proces philosophy, so what was the point. and if you look in the early obama campaign days you would see a same trend but different demographic . bringing in people who don't look like cookie cutter republicans or democrats to run. you could bring them in that way. they would prefer to have

certainty even if that means losing by an one-point margin. >> we'll talk later in the program about when you win if that very thing makes it harder. when dates themselves are not interested in increasing the electorate, who has the juice? who has the standing to talk to big chunks of the country and talk about civics, about responsibility, about these sign posts of being an active citizen, jury duty, taxes and voting? >> well, obviously the president does. and what we see of presidential candidates they have the resources to expand the electorate. we're out there doing massive

voter registration drives to increase the scope of the electorate. but when it gets down to senate election those candidate just don't have the resources. when ari was talking about the reality of this situation they've got to focus on winning. if winning was--if expanding the electorate was part of the strategy to win, they would do it. it's just that it's so expensive to do that intensive effort. who does it? the outside groups, third-party organizations that are out there trying to expand the electorate, but still they don't have the same resources that a presidential candidate has. >> we'll continue with our strategy session for the november election. can the electorate for the mid terms be changed? can a small, self-selected minority have to be the one to choose congress? stay with us.

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weekdays at 5 eastern only on al jazeera america >> we're back with inside story on al jazeera america. i'm ray suarez. you can be a fly on our wall today , an eavesdropper listening in on the strategy session for changing the electorate for the midterm elections. many are worried about the range of issues challenging the country. a dedicated minority of american adults have any plans in choosing the next congress who takes its seat in january. we have time to change this. 50 days to election day. ari you've been told how much money you have to collect date, the turn out, single women, minorities, working class people, how do you drive turn out there? >> let me jump back to one thing that liz said because it plays in here. when you have a candidate like a

rand paul or barack obama in a presidential race, when you're talking about a candidate who expands the electorate, it is a candidate who excites and people actually believe their election can change things. people believe that rand paul as a senator changes things because he has a very strong ideology. as much as i find his ideology abhor rent personally, but it is one that expands. and people voted for barack obama, in 2008 and 2012, and believed he was an agent of change. the reason you hear this lack of excitement in 2014 because you hear so republicans take the senate. what does that mean? so what? the question that -- >> you have an answer for that. it would drive people. there are things at take. >> of course there are things at state.

there was a vote on going to war in the house of representative representatives yesterday. you know what turns voters off? the fact that electorates have been playing the "i'm scared to vote." there are things at state. talking about the issues of war and peace. there are huge issues about the federal budget. there are huge issues about the courts i in the judiciary and healthcare concerns. there are huge issues that a candidate has to get out there, you are an candidate, you have to expand it in 50 days. you put money in things that drive turn out. first off, you look for people who vote but might not without encouragement. they're not hard to find. you drive a bus around the neighborhood and pick them up and take them to polls.

you go to leaders in community. you go to faith leaders and get them to rally voters to go to the polls. >> liz, you specialize in electronic communication. that's part of the arsenal now. when you spend money there, what do you spend it on? >> ideally what you are starting with is you're starting with a pretty good data set that tells you--who can be drown in as potential voters who are not already part of the voting pool, and then people who do vote, what is going to motivate them so you have that data all that discuss in the row. now, the trouble with all this is you can contact all the demographics and tell them what they want to hear, but if they're not as exciting as rand paul or barack obama, that plays differently. fundamentally i think it's fair to say when we're looking at this particular electoral environment democrats have been

investing heavily in data and things that generally fall within the digital and technology sphere. than republicans have. >> are they ahead? >> very clearly. in 2008 we did our very best when i was at the republican national committee to match what was going on, and i think we succeeded what was going on at that point, but it was very tough to match the obama campaign. 2012, honestly, the romney campaign did a very abysmal job of this. i don't think their data was as high quality as they were claiming it was, and they didn't use it particularly well. now you have a situation on the republican side of the aisle we're at a disadvantage when you look at data technology. in some of these races that is very tight even if it looks like the republicans should be capable of prevailing because of approval rating and people's sentiment about obamacare,

whatever it might be, the democrats have the advantage because they have the data and they've been using it. in georgia the reason you've seen the candidates where they are, they've used that data to register in particular african-american voters and get involved. that's something that the republican party has not been able to match. >> liz mentioned obamacare. there is something in the range of 10 million people who today have health insurance who didn't have it before the affordable care act, and they're drawn heavily from parts of the population who don't normally vote in midterm election. can you get those people to say, wow, i have healthcare now. i didn't have it before. who do i thank? >> if i were a campaign and i were in a state like north carolina, colorado, that's exactly the voter i would be contacting. social pressure. meaning,

showing people that their friends are voting and they're not. using big data to use social pressure to convince people that it's something that you should do. campaigns are starting to do this, outside groups are starting to do that, and it's shown in academic studies to have an impact. >> ari and liz have mentioned the importance of the campaigned campaigned. is there a feedback? boring candidates, low turn out. people don't feel called. running for office is a really hard thing to do, and it's so dismal why would you get people of ability and panache and charisma to do it? >> the people who are going to be that sort of candidate are people when they think they have a chance of winning the election. across many of the contests in the upcoming elections few are actually competitive. one of the things that we would

do to really change the playing field and increase turn out is have interesting elections where your vote really does seem to make a difference in the outcome because the election is going to be close. we're going to have good turn out. it's going to be the states that have good elections. if we expanded it we would have turn out in those other places as well. >> let's talk about what sometimes the elephant in the room starting from the premise that having a small minority of americans who pick the house as a bad thing. are the advisers and strategists on both sides of the aisle comfortable with a small midterm election? stay with us. i think that al jazeera helps connect people in a way they haven't been connected before.

it's a new approach to journalism. this is an opportunity for americans to learn something. we need to know what's going on around the world. we need to know what's going on in our back yard and i think al jazeera does just that.

>> you're watching inside story on al jazeera america. i'm ray suarez. today on the program so far we've been talking about strategy, driving turn out and encouraging voting.

but we have to ask whether either parties or both has an interest in a smaller more predictable electorate based on the base. liz, i have to give you and ari being honest with the idea that a smaller group of voters is easier to work with. but more in the corral gives them skin in the game. if i win i'm talking to people who have been involved in one way or another helping me run this state, this congressional district, this part of the country. >> i think it depends on the race you're looking at. there are certainly instance where is that has been true. hoistcally if you looked and you talked to republicans who have tended to perform a little better with african-american voters than your standard republican they would say there is huge benefit in that. if you talk to former virginia

governor jim gilmore, he garnered 20% of the african-american vote in his gubernatorial election. mike huckabee is very proud of the support he garnered from the african-american community when he ran for governor. when you talk to candidates who don't look quite as cookie cutter they seem advantage. if you look at statements that rand paul has made about what has been happening in terms of some efforts that look a little bit close for voter disenfranchisement, and certain voices in the certain sectors of the electorate i think you would find that rand paul is accepting of bringing more people into the fold who haven't been active participants in the electoral system today. you can find that a lot with hispanic voters and younger women, and to some extent i hear from the republican side in thinking about voters who skew conservative trying to do more

to engage married women married women have tended to be better base of support for us recently, but that's part of why democrats are targeting this war on women rhetoric. >> i'll go to the professor and end with ari. when we get would we get to a congress rather than a congress with low approval rating. >> when people get upset they're more likely to turn vote, as it turns out. the state of the election and the state of the nation is something that is a condition that would drive turn out. but she's mentioning these groups but it's not ex-hangsist but taking votes from the other side. in the history of this country we very rarely out of the wind expand the electorate. we only do so when one side, the side that controls the process

at the time, the policies making, the law making decides there might be an advantage for them in expanding the electorate. right now neither side sees that advantage. >> look, in reality i think most people, most campaigns if you're on the ground right now you're looking for your voters and it's a sad part of politics. winning means getting your voters out and there needs to be a larger societal project at play to say voting matters and come up with a way that makes it for people to vote and get more people to turn out. >> liz, ari, michael, thank you all. that brings us to the end of this edition of "inside story." from washington, i'm ray suarez.

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