>> that is all our time for this news hour, if you would like the latest on any stories from this news hour, just head on over to our website, aljazeera.com, inside story is next, on al jazeera america. pogueinging around the depths of the russian sea, intercepting jets that may be straying or purposely entering air space, what are the russians up to? it is inside story. ♪ regulars were already

ever tense between russia and europe, east and west. in the midst of negotiations over the bill for natural gas, and the price going forward, an unresolved conflict involving russian friends in syria, and iran. russian president vladimir putin is asserting his country's still matters, still makes things happen, can still turn heads in world capitals. >> the swedish military has been searching it's coastal waters the capitol, for a vessel that thinks it is some kind of foreign submarine. >> it could be be a submarine or a small submarine, it could be a diver using some form of underwater ever vehicle, and it could be divers that don't have any business in our territory that's where i think you have the span of what could be foreign underwater activity. >> several sitings of a mysterious vehicle, including these captures in amateur photographs,

has enganged the nation's attention, and begun a full throttle hunt, not since the cold war has sweden a neutral nation seen so much a mobilization. back then, sweden used depth charges to currenter frequent soviet incushions, swedish government is not specifically blamed russia still, but the ministry of defense said in a statement, there have been no irregular situations and even less so accidents involving russian naval vessels. and on several occasions this week, nato scrambled fighter jets to intercept russian aircraft flying over allied territory on the baltic sea. >> swede season not a member of nato, and has been cutting the spending for years, leading to criticism that it is not prepared for rising tensions with or provocations from russia. the newly minted prime

minister, has announced his government will increase spending on defense in it's new budget, all of this comes at a time when russia is already at odds with with the west with, flexing it's muscles and intimidating neighbors. has been bloodied and moscow is accused of tomenting the unrest by supplying soldiers, weapon withs and money. international condemnation and a sanctions program aimed directly vladimir putin and his friends has done lit toll change the dynamic and fail to undo the russian annexation of the ukraine's peninsula. we of course, what is going on with russia. just a return to the normal tit for tat that was a feature of years of

colted war? or is this something else. joining us for that conversation, former u.s. ambassador who now runs the mccain institute. doctoral candidate, his research is on russian warfare, and russian are sha's view of foreign conflict, and michael coffman, a public policy scholar, at the wilson center here in washington. i want to start with a basic question, what do u think it is at the bottom of the sea floor, off the coast of sweden? oscar, let me start with you well, i would say by my best guess would be it looks like a minisubmarine. and i would say that's because of the number of sitings you have. you have possibly five or more identifications of this. as the photo you saw, the most famous one, and the one who took that photo, he said -- he observed it

for inutfive m. he was smoking a cigarette, and he said i am sure it is a submarine. that's what i think. the problem with with those is they have a short range, only 60 miles so if it is a submarine, it would have to come from a bigger ship, somewhere nearby, and one with thing people are pointed so is there is a russian tanker that has been sailing zip zagging back and forth off of swedish waters. it is a liberian flagged ship, and it keeps changing it's destination, so some people believe if there's a minisubmersible, than the only place it would have come from. completely agree. it would be a mini submarine, very likely been russian. i was living in sweden at the time, when we had russian are submarines in swedish waters and it seems like a very similar

play here, where russia experimenting what it can do in terms of inserting capacity, into swedish waters and what the swedish reaction will be. is there any kind of nato reaction to this. six weeks ago before the summit in bails they agreed on a support agreement, they want to see is there any practicality to that, does that mean anything. and also to test the russian forces. can they get in, and out, what happens. >> oscar is there danger to this kind of low level provocation. >> well, first i wouldn't say i am sure that this is a provocation. i think if you would send

political signals you would use the bomber jets can have used before. i think this is rather a military intelligence gathering operation. where you scouter the terrain. which is particularly difficult, and you can also listen to the signatures of the ship, onesas the dutch ones that are practitioner practicing there. but i think they are -- i think they are -- i moon you have to see the politically appeal in this. that russia is trying to send political messages by using all these means. and that is something that -- i mean it is a sign of an ambition in the bat us. russia is not happy with the status quo. an ambition to do what, it isn't going to blockade sweden, what is it you are trying to say when you do things like this? >> for one it send as clear signal so swedish people.

sweden is not nato, even though it trains and worked with nato, and there are plenty of people in sweden who may not agree, or becoming more militarized. so what russia is trying to do is essentially enginedder some aggravation, some hostility. and it is also contesting the baltic space. our ownerships quite a few of them sailing in the black sea. and an annoyance to russia. claiming that they had chased an american spy plane. >> let's talk about the jets. because there have been several just in the last few days. including one of an identified spy plane, now, colin grad for people who care about these kinds of things.

sort of a left over of empire, but not attached to rub russia, and out of colin grad came those planes. there's a lot of countries crowded into a small space, you may say okay, fine, easy to stray into foreign air space, but come on. >> no, it's not easy, you know what you are doing. nato has an air policing mission, in order to intercept planes and i think they both wanted to trunk a surveillance flight, and they wanted to see what the nato response would be. and this plane went up and then over towards astoria, and crossed into astonian air space, so that a deliberate effort. that's not something that happened randomly, and this fit as wider pattern. so putin when he took power, says he is going

to rebuild the russian greatness, rebuild the great country. strengthen it. he has been investing money in the military. he said that the collapse of the soviet union was with the greatest tragedy of the 20th century. he has invaded georgia, he has really ramped up russian propaganda, targeted russian speaking communities around russia. and i think he does have this imperial mind set, he wants to see speakers inside russian territory. he wants to have them dominate the immediate neighbors. and he wants russia to be respected and fears as a great power. >> is that oscar johnson why they don't even torment co one a good execution when they send jets over astonian air space? that it was just a stray, just a mistake, and let's move on, does anybody believe that. >> well, no, i wouldn't say so at all, because if you look at the jets, they -- i mean other countries fly with a wide

security margin. which means they almost cross with with the danish earlier in the swedish signal intelligence, yet they were ten-meter evers away from. i think when it comes to the great power view, in one sense, it's quite normal, i don't say justified but quite normal that russia as a great power, would try and push the boundaries and see where they can behave a bit brutish, and when they are allowed to, they are kind of cementing the view of them being a great power. so i think when russia is building a very very strong military, it's kind of a logical consequence they will try that in the area. i am not saying it is right, but i think it is something the state in the region, is rather especially sweden has woken up with a surprise, that oh, are we

neighboring a great power that are trying to influence the neighbors with military means. i think that is the big realization that sweden needs to draw. not russia, because russia will keep on pushing their neighbors. quarterback we return, with with more inside story, we will continue our look at russian moves and motivations in it's regularses with with nato, states from the former soviet union, and old friends in asia and the mideast, stay with us. has spent billions of dollars on domestic counter-terrorism operations. >> i wanted to be in on the big game and to be paid top-dollar for it. that's it. >> many of these involved targeted informant led stings. >> to them, everyone in the muslim community is a potential informant or a potential terrorist.

rush are sha and the world today on the program, a russian spy plane strayed into astonian air space at midweek, astoria summons the ambassador, in hall h land to lodge a protest. for it's part, the plane was on a training flight and had not violated astonian air space, last month astoria accused rush are sha of kidnapping a security guard near the border. russian is intercepted by both danish and swedish military jets before entering the skies over astoria. just as president obama was with planning to head h to sty land. and she scoffed at the idea that astoria was with in any danger or under any threat. from a more assertive more aggressive russia.

does it look different today? >> it certainly looks very different for them, after rush are sha's annexation of crimea, and after they essentially create add frozen conflict in ukraine. astoria and the rest of the states are are clearly very worried and in particular, they are worried about whether the nato collective security guarantee if that is a real thing h they can h call on, and one of the results of the nato summit and whales that took place in september was with that nato came one a genuine plan to demonstrate the countries astoria, that in the event they were threatened they had a plan to deploy, and a plan to come to the rest are cue, and these were with not mere words. ambassador, is vladimir putin unsure about whether france would go to war for astoria. whether david cameron's britain would go to war for astoria? is. >> i think he is unsure, and wanted to create that uncertainty more and more. by nextinging russia's

muscles he is trying to show that you guys want to protect astoria, there's a cost to that. and do you really want with to pay that cost. and i think that's what with with are seeing the muscle flexing going on now. where does it all end? can somebody make a mistake, and get us really shooting at each other in a way that nobodien had wanted? is. >> i think definitely that's a real possibility. because the military power is based on the premise that you can use it, and that if you think of the submarine, what would with happen for ever swede withen has fished that up. when a russian submarine was with stranded. when you have that, and then if russia makes threats back, then you are instantly in a stand off situation, and that i think -- a shooting situation with doesn't need to been further than that when you are using

military means in this way. oscar, you mentioned the swedish public, and i think it is for people wayofinging this bram and the united states, it's probably worthwhile to talk about how different it feels. if you are sitting inega, that soviet -- excuse me, see. >> russian possibilities of an expansionist feeling of more confidence on the world stage, feels very different, than it does in des moines or chick go, the idea that rush are sha could actually accidentally or on purpose go to war again is a real problem and one with that you actually have to worry about. >> rush are sha is going to war, they invaded georgia, they put in military forces they went with into the territory of the remainder of georgia. not only the parts with with the mandates. they now recognize

independent states, they have gone into ukraine, they have annexed crimea, they have permented the uprisings in eastern ukraine. so russia duh have it's military on the lue right now. and that is something that i think all of us whether it's in des moines, we with need to pay attention to. >> is there a difference between what they call their states that used to be part of the soviet union, and one withs like poland. for the rush ares that's a very big difference. and it's includes in particular ever countries like ukraine. and it also includes russian minorities, some significant that live in the baltic states for the russians there is a clear bounder reason they had set that very publicly h. that if the west was to pull sharply, it would not respect it.

he h made it very clear that georgia and ukraine are ed red are lines for ever rush are sha, and if there was a real pull, there would be with consequences. granted i do not think anybody imagined that the consequences would been these kind, and that they would fall so quickly. that rush are sha would break basically every international norm we with know, and annex crimea. the challenge moving forward is that rush are sha annexed them quickly and easily, and the conflict it created did not come at a high cost, and the lesson they may have taken is ill many tear action delivers political results but it is relatively deep. >> is there a connection to be made with with rush are sha's relative success in it's moves with ukraine? that may encouraging it to been more provocative in the eastern baltic sea? i think they do definitely learn h from what happened in the ukraine. and i think one with actually potentially scary take away is that

it went really fine until someone accidentally shot down the m h 17, because it was only after that the e.u. could unite and put on the sanctions on rush are sha that and a bit tougher. but to say -- to speak of car war, i think when we say war, we with normally h think of military means. and i would say and especially as crimea shows that is actually not the main thing, it is probably not tanks, what is more important to look at if the kind of subversive means and you have russian intelligence funding to a lot of politician, you had lithuania now suspended and then tel-aviv for basically sending hate crime in the baltic states so i think -- the biggingest possibility, or the biggest thing you need to look at is this -- what this means is nonconventional means.

>> we will be back in a moment with with more inside story, mayben you have noticed when head hing to the pump, the price of gasoline is down. the wholesale price of a barrel of oil is also dropping across world markets. whether rush are sha is engaged in international provocation or not, is the slinking price of oil a worry in the guilded halls of the kremlin h the far out strips the astonian army? is stay with us.

this is inside story, from al jazeera america. i'm ray swarez. a barrel of crude oil costs a little over 81 with dollars on the world spot market. that's the lowest price in 4 1/2 years. with with the russian economy posting slow or no growth, and failing to meet the aspirations of it's people, does president putin activism on the world stage play with with russians who know, astonnians,

latvians are richer ever than they are. former u.s. ambassador. and michael cough can mapp a public policy scholar at the wilson center here in washington. and ambassador, it -- in this world, where it's easy to know, russians must know that they haven't been win withing the economic race. >> they do know that, but that is not as important to them at the moment. putin has successfully built a nationalist narrative, a narrative, russia as a victim of the end of the cold war. russia needing to rebuild and restore greatness and respect for russia. russian people being allegedly being repressed in their human rights in ukraine, in the baltic states.

putin has built massive public support. you are right, that the price of oil matters when it comes to money that's where the budget gets the money from. but i think that it isn't going to change the behavior, or the narrative that they are using, public will and support will sustain for some time. and the price of oil may go backing up again. so i think putin is prepared to place a bet to ride it out. >> the irony being that those opposed rerussians live better than russians. the idea with that russia can can do this indefinitely, when it is not delivering seems a little hard to fathom. >> well with, i will say that, i think that the case of u.s. sanctions and the budget is a bit exaggerated. the price of oil dropped far steeper, and russia survived it, it ran a very expensive

precurement program, and frankly the impact has yet to be felt by a lot of common russians. they certainly feel it when they travel abroad. i think russian are can can survive the sanctions and the drop on the price of oil. i think vladimir putin plans to outlast the economic cries us and the western with sanctions. as kurt can said, in ruck russia right now, politics supersede economics. and vladimir putin has woven with a successful narrative that russians should be willing to suffer this pain. and perhaps it can can be said that the russian are public overall seems to have a much greater propensity to suffer for national interests. >> oscar, with with that in mind, is vladimir putin also confident can that europe and it's economic relations with russia, they are not just willing to risk their russian customers in order to enter prolongs

conflict, either political or military. >> well, i think -- in knowing the europeans i think vladimir putin has done very well, and you can can see how the conflict has escalated. quite slowly and controlly, enough not to make a read call shift. and let the business elite talk economics to the political elite. however,ening i don't think he is judging the russians correctly. as kurt can and michael can said, they have a propensity to endure hardship. but then how much hardship? is the spirit has been whipped up, it can be a bit like when you are peaking on yourself, and it is cold outside, it becomes warm for a little while, but then it grows cold. you can't can have this going on for too long, especially when you have body baggings in the thousands, perhaps from eastern ukraine, and you have the oil prices. the russian public

finances last time i saw 116, one with hundred 19-dollar as barrel, and the capital has been immense as well as the ruble being the lowest. i think there could be a breaking point, even though russia h is not a democracy. it could be a breaking point, where they will supersede the politics. >> how about that? is is it not the bray defenders of stallen grad, these are kid whose want with to jeans at a decent price, and know their own economy doesn't provide con can super goods? is. >> i think the key word that oscar used is could. it could become. yeah if this goes on for a long period of time. if the price of oil stays down, if the russian people feel that they are suffering, and if most importantly, the russian adventures that putin has launched on, whether ukraine or elsewhere seem to be failing. then h you can see pressure for doing something different. a change in rush are sha, that's not the case

today. >> michael coffman, oscar ever thank you for ever joining us today on inside story that brings us to tend of this edition. thank you for ever being with with us. it may be over for today, be turkey syria conversation continues we with want with to hear what you think about the issues raised on this or any days show, log on to our facebook page, follow us on twitter. or follow me at ray swarez news, we with will see you for the next inside story, in washington, i'm ray swear with resident. war ever resident. sweaswarez.

haiti, october 2010, at a hospital in a small, rural town north of the capital. these were the first victims of a horrific, unknown disease in a country still reeling from a devastating earthquake. patients were dying in the space of a few hours. children were especially vulnerable. al jazeera was the first news channel on the scene. in the following days and weeks we tracked the epidemic as it ripped across the country.