tv Inside Story Al Jazeera March 25, 2015 7:30am-8:01am EDT
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me. >> the government announced it will allow local companies to import wines. the prospect of competition doesn't worry wine makers here. they are more concerned about keeping up with growing demand. al jazeera myanmar. >> everything you need to know is there aljazeera.com. there was a time when president obama pointed to yemen as an example of how a counter terrorism strategy should work. as the country slips into civil war, it has come and gone. we discuss the consequences of the u.s. pulling out military person, and yemen on the brink of chaos, with a former u.s. ambassador, blogger and military expert. later, president obama agrees to keep 10,000 u.s. troops in afghanistan through the end of the year, and we'll take you to
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kabul to talk to our reporter on the scene about what that means to that country's security. hello. i'm ray suarez. american officials used to point to yemen as a reliable ally, stabilizing partner, and a country willing to take risks to rule out guerilla fighter and accept the president to do it. now the president abd-rabbu mansour hadi is leading a counterirn surgent force against -- insurnt force against a rebel army that has taken over big chunks of the his country. it's hard to say who is in charge. whether the militarily-suggested rebels, after pulling down the capital, are capable of running the country.
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it's a mess, and adds yemen to a too-long list of countries where the state is ineffective, in instability affects neighbours and criminal groups may once again find safe haven. we have the u.s. ambassador to yemen, representing the country in kuwait in iraq, director of institute of the study in george town. welcome to the programme. happened? >> in the short version, we are not sure. what really did happen was a political vacuum was created. after the 2011 election, and what looked like a success transition process, second to tunisia. the transition dragged on too long. there was a sense that nothing was happening on the government, nothing was happening on the economy. the transition government became sort of a nothing government.
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and so there was a vacuum into roll. >> the houthis basically evicted the president from office. dissolved the parliament, and then left no operating government in its place. who is running yemen. >> well, right now, probably nobody. i think it's important to step back one. that's just from the january with abd-rabbu mansour hadi going under house arrest and into aiden. in september, when the houthis came into sanaa. they were welcome by most peep. they were seen as a stabilizing force, nonideological. they were not i.s.i.s., and the government, abd-rabbu mansour hadi's government signed a partnership plan with them. there was a new technocratic cabinet that came in, that most thought was an improvement. power-sharing, and it looked
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like it was about to work. and then the houthis probably overreached, i think, is probably what happened. and we went from a september, october, november where a lot of us thought this might in its own way work to all of a sudden house arrests, and abd-rabbu mansour hadi leaving, and as you say, the houthis are running sanaa, but don't know how to govern. and abd-rabbu mansour hadi is in aden, with no territory. someone described it has a firing squad. you have the former president sort of in a calition with the houthis, really playing their own power game, and they are all able to negate each other, but none of them are able to run the country. short answer - no one is running the country. >> the united states pulled out special forces and the diplomatic officers. >> yes.
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>> was that a good idea for the united states to leave - pull up stakes and leave after being heavily invested there. >> we have been heavily invested in yemen for decades. not just on counterterrorism issues. i will say it's unfortunate that we now have no eyes, no ears in yemen, in what is essentially still a political situation. and in a perfect world it would have been good if we could have left one or two of our diplomats behind. whether or not the special forces guys could operate is a different set of questions, but we have a political crisis as much as a security crisis, and we are out of the game entirely. and i think that is - even with our ambassador flying back every once in na while, we are out of the game. interest.
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>> it makes it impossible to have a role in the outcome. >> i was going to say it's impossible - to the extent there could be a political execution, it could be available offshore. doha is probably a good venue. to the extent there's offshore talks, we and others can be involved. our ability to have a sense of what is going on on the ground is going to be very limited. >> is that what we are seeing happen now, is it about yemen, a country of 26 million people with scant resources, small g.d.p. or is it about bigger powers outside the borders of yemen trying to work their will on what goes on in that corner of the world? >> like eitheror questions to which the answer is yes. this is essentially a yemen issue. the houthi problem goes back at
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least 10 years, before the iranians knew there were houthis, before they recognised the houthis, because for theo logical reasons it's different. the problems in the south go back a long title. they are problems of yemeni governs, questions of economic development, and are quintessentially a yemen problem. there are outside players, primarily saudi arabia and iran, who are turning this into something of a proxy war, and, of course, you have al qaeda and the arabian peninsula. what you have are three players, more, who are taking advantage of an inherently weak yemen and all the political vacuums to play out there own battles. yemen. >> when you talk about the united states having a role from outside as this continues to roll out. do you have to have somebody to talk to? if you are at the west asia desk
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in state, and you pick up a phone, do you have to know there's going to be someone at a phone on the other end whose word means something. >> it makes it much easier. and i think this is one of the problems. we don't know who we are talking do. we work with hardy, he's legitimate government, but the cabinet is not there. there isn't a parliament. it's scattered. i think to the extent that there are serious conversations, they are probably, again, going to be offshore, in doha, riyadh, wherever else the talks are held, and with various political players. can anybody make an agreement that will stick. there was a national partnership plan in september. it looked good. the houthis and the government couldn't fillful their own agreement. you have a problem of the not just getting to the agreement,
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but making it stick. having it have legs, having there be someone strong enough to say "this is what we signed on to, this is what we'll do. there are few people on any side of this circular firing squad who can do that. it's a problem? >> so people over 40, stamp collectors geography geeks probably remember there used to be more than one yemen. >> yes. >> did it work as a unity stake. we keep the together keeping a country together that may well shouldn't be one country. >> it was an artificial division. there's an idea of a yemen. one of the things that is interesting is the houthis are not talking about dividing the country. hardy hardy hardy -- abd-rabbu mansour hadi is not talking about dividing the country. everyone wants to take over the unified yemen.
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the 1990 division didn't really make sense in terms of geography, religion. if the state fractures, and it may, that is a possible outpost, that yemen will fall apart into five or six pieces. it will not be along the old north-south line. that was artificial. is there enough to hold it together? i don't know. >> if it falls apart, instead of one failing fragile state. we'll have 2, 3 or 4. i have a residual continuing belief that the yemenis will step back from the brink, which they tend to do and say if we cannot make the state work as one, we can't make it work as three, four or five. we don't want to be somalia or syria, we are going to have to come up with that political compromise and save the place. >> the problem with dancing on
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the brink, which is what the yemenis are doing, is you can make a misstep. the ground can get out from under you. and at that point it's too late. and that is the concern. >> thank you for joining us on "inside story". barbara the ambassador in yemen from 1997 to 2001. she defects the institute for the study of diplomacy at george town university. what is the risk if the country remains, what's the location on vital sea lanes, the border with saudi arabia, and the growing influence of iran mean in the wider regional conflict. stay with us, it's "inside story".
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international extremist groups like al qaeda and the arabian peninsula duck dug in on yemeni territory. yemen's leaders allowed american forces, assets and drone strikes in the efforts to push back. some figures were killed by drone strikes carried out on the yemeni territory. the u.s. pulled out. yemenis are fighting each other. back. >> we have a senior military writer for defense one and another guest. all the video talking about this rebel army, and that army, and taking this territory. they don't talk about how people are getting buy day to day in yemen. what is going on in the country? >> it's not looking good.
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you have two parallel authorities operating at the same time. an authority in the south represent by president abd-rabbu mansour hadi, and in the north ruled by the houthi, and former president sanaa. both are enemies. houthis has an enemy, al qaeda, and i.s.i.s. - as of recently. on the ground there's 26 million that don't want to be part of that. since the revolution in 2011, what the people wanted is a respectable life, meaning they want electricity, water, jobs. they want to have a stable life. i don't think they care who is in charge, as long as the country is stable. it doesn't seem that that will happen now. >> with the forces deployed in the field, paid for by outside forces because the country is now not productive enough to keep all the armies humming. what are the dangers - not just
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neighbourhood. >> you have factions at play inside yemen, and across the region. i think the biggest thing is the withdrawal of these american forces over the weekend. closer to the embassy. it really contributes to the u.s. having, you know, no influence on the ground there at all. and so even when it comes to knowing what is happening on the ground, there's zero visibility. you saw within the last couple of weeks the pentagon lost $500 million worth of equipment, military equipment that had contributed to the counterterrorism matter there over the years. and now it's gone. really they had no idea - they couldn't look for it, couldn't gone. >> if you are sitting in your living room or getting ready to go to bed in kansas city, and you are thinking i'm not sure
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that this has anything to do with me, if a country is falling apart that is sitting on the sea lanes between the suez canal and the indian ocean, the persian golf, does that involve you, mr and mrs america. >> why do we care. the thing is that the counterterrorism mission and fighting with the yemeni government over the last year or two, in which - which prompted president obama to say that this was a model counterterrorism mission. it was all about fighting ak a.p. and it had been successful. this group is one of the most g lethal al qaeda groups and affiliates. it han responsible for a number of attacks or attempted attacks on western interests. so i think that in the american mind to the degree americans are
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following this, there was a direct link between the mission that, you know, the u.s. was conducting inside yemen, and their own security. >> you heard the ambassador speaking earlier in the program about the saudis and the iranians having big interests in what happens in yemen. is a yemen that crumbles a danger to saudi arabia, with the long border in the middle of the desert. >> the saudis think so. yemen has not been stable for a long time. everything that we see is a symptom of having a weak government. the problem now - you have a houthi rebel militia in the north. all the foreign and international community is refusing to communicate with them, pushing them into the arms of iran, which is their fear. whether they meant it intentionally or unintentionally.
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seems the politics are more divided. saudi arabia seems to think the presence of the houthis is a huge risk. if they negotiate with the houthis, they don't iran's. >> is that oversaid the iranian, houthi link. i think we want yemen to fit into a role. they are with iran, saudi arabia, and wan the fighting to be a shi'a sumnar fight. which it isn't. the narrative and the discourse is forcing yemen in that direction. is a place more vulnerable in general terms to being able to become an locus for instance, for groups like al qaeda in the arabian peninsula, if there is a tumult look of government authority, lack of sure governance from day to day. >> sure, of course.
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from the military side of things in the u.s., it is that all this turmoil has given the a.q.a.p., you know, whether it's licence or whether it's just kind of the authority to kind of be more active. it's the biggest fear. certainly groups like that thrive in chaos. so i don't know that we have seen evidence of that in the last few weeks. that's the fear without any folks on the ground that can do some local training, but work to call in air strikes or whatever. >> it's harder to know whether that happens. >> zero disability. >> well, sanaa runs the blog yemeni. gordon is the editor of the defense newsletter debrief. thank you both for joining me. >> after years of a tense,
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argmentive and bewildering relationship, the former afghan president hamid karzai, his successor, ashraf ghani, is in washington trying to encourage the american military to stay in his country longer. as more americans look to withdraw from the entanglements of the post 9/11 wars, what is going on in afghanistan that has its leaders looking to extend the stay?
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welcome back to "inside story". i'm ray suarez. the new afghan president ashraf ghani is in washington concerned for an ongoing threat from a still potent taliban, and a growing risk for security problems. ashraf ghani asked president obama to slow the timetable for the planned u.s. complete withdrawal of forces from afghanistan. as both leaders said today,
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afghanistan is still a very dangerous place. >> i'm pleased to say that the departure of 120,000 international troops is not brought about the security gap or the collapse that was often anticipated. i'd like to pay tribute at this moment to the continued sacrifice of the security forces, civilians and a patriotic nation. >> our transition out of a combat roll has not changed. now, i am the first to say that as long as our me and women in uniform are serving in afghanistan, there are risks involved. it's a dangerous place. >> for more on how this, and how the new unity government of afghanistan is working so far, i'm joined by al jazeera correspondent jennifer glasse in kabul.
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in tone, in body language, in widespread agreement between the two presidents, it sounds like this bilateral relationship is a far cry from the one with hamid karzai. is it? >> i think that's definitely the case. certainly the former u.s. ambassador and the current u.s. ambassador were looking forward to the departure of president hamid karzai at the end of his tenure, the relationship between me and the united states was prickly. the u.s. officials are talking about a rejuvenated relationship between the two countries, a reinvigorated relationship, between ashraf ghani and president obama had had at least three video calls which president ashraf ghani said to me on saturday were productive. i think they were looking forward to a fruitful relationship and a different relationship. i think
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ashraf ghani, i think they were looking for a partnership. they depend on the united states for aid and security, but doesn't want to be a burden. his goal is to make afghan self-sufficient. >> i don't want to channelling race how well the ghani government got started. it's had some rough times. >> that's right. he's ruling in a coalition along with the chief executive officer. it's the first time this type of government has been tried. and we were six months in, six months since president ashraf ghani was inaugurated. they don't have a cabinet. eight of 25 have been confirmed. the list has been submitted to parliament. an idea of how difficult the political landscape is here. it's a lot of political divides, it will be a rough road ahead. >> there was a lot of agreement in the joint press conference at the white house in washington.
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both leaders kept coming back to the idea that afghanistan is still a very dangerous place. what were they talking about. you live there, what makes afghanistan still a dangerous place. here in the city - in the city centers in most of the provincial capitals, they are fairly secure. but the fighting last year between african security forces and the taliban was fierce, and went through most of the winter. usually there's a lull in the fighting. african security forces - you heard the talk about sackry fightses being made. -- sacrifices being made, losing 13-15 soldiers a day. and were anticipating just as difficult a fighting season in the mountains, and fighters can move in. the taliban giving the afghan security forces a run for their money.
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it's been a different year. and president ashraf ghani is anticipating a difficult fighting season. >> president ashraf ghani explaining one of the reasons why he wanted the americans to stay longer. saying that it would help the afghan army continue training and consolidation as a fighting force. >> we put a lot of money and time into the army. difference? >> well, we are a decade and 65 billion in. it's the american side. there are a lot of skills of the forces. they need to learn, and they feel they need to lose a lot of time. they were long political steal mates and they were hoping that the n.a.t.o. forces would help the afghan forces with logistics, intelligence gathering, medical training. that they can help with in the next 6-8 months. the air force, the air power - that's a problem for the afghan
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security force, and that's a reason the taliban has been successful because they can gather. before, when n.a.t.o. helped with the combat mission, they could call in air strikes. not the case here. the 10,000 u.s. forces are here, 6,000 are part of the train and assist mission. the rest is part of a counterterrorism mission. they can help out militarily, and if there are prickly situations. we have the elements of the islamic state here. you have seen some fighters allied to the islamic state, and we know that one u.s. drone strike dealt with one of those leaders. >> jennifer glasse reporting from kabul the snarling between the obama administration and the israeli prime minister didn't end when the israeli leader begun his election. next week we dig into the tense bilateral relationship taking a turn for the worse, and the
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"wall street journal"'s bombshell report that not only was israel spying on talks to iran, but the information was passed on to the president's republican opponent in congress. that's all for this edition of "inside story". see you next time. >> in 1996, sonja marcus was sentenced to a maximum of life in california prison. >> i couldn't believe it. it did not compute they're taking your life. i was 46 years old. >> her crime: possession of less than a gram of heroine. >> how do you call yourself a judge with the interest of justice and look at somebody and...
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