to drive some sort of negotiation. >> they certainly have gotten the attention. we know now that at least three houthi commanders have been killed in those air strikes. what is the goal of these air strikes? will the houthis be forced back to the negotiating stable in or will they continue to fight this coalition? >> well, you know, this is not just a struggle between the saudis and the houthis. remember what the houthis are doing right now really needs to be understood in the context of a very, very complicated political equation inside yemen. and the houthis for their current reach depend very much on the support of the military, which means that they are depending very much on this alliance of convenience with former president salah. it's not clear just how long this is going to continues. i spus text sp*ebgt huh some of their aims are divergent at this point. so again it's the saudis are

think are trying to create a situation where they increase the cough to the houthis of continually along the current line. i suspect that former president sal los angeles hassalah has his own objectives and remains very much to be seen how those multiple political equations will play out. but i think that ultimately we'll have to get to negotiations. >> i wants to pick on your counter terrorism expertise now. we also know that the al qaeda in the arabian peninsula operate in southern yep edge. we know that there is an isil threat in the region as well. are you about to predict that these two forces will take opportunity of the conflict that's happening in yemen and perhaps try to further their agenda in yemen? >> well, i think there is little doubt about that. and one of the great ironies in all of this is that it's the

saudi perception that what we see going on is essentially a sectarian war inside yemen, one which is being taken advantage of the by the iranians and therefore is working against the saudis overall strategic interests in the region, in this region-wide struggle if you will. that the saudis feel themselves to be involved in with yemen. the -- but to the extent the yep ownyep ownvinnie yemenis see these shelves there. while yemenis see the struggle in sake sectarian terms. it's those those those in the sunni that take advantage. and therefore that means al qaeda in the arabian peninsula

and further north in the country. so one of the great ironies in all of this is the saudis, if anything, may well be driving an unintended consequence of increasing the strengths of the radical extremist groups in yemen who also pose a great threat to them. >> i want to talk about this proxy war that we seem to be touching on. this proxy war between sunnies and shia and saudi arabia and iran. somebody said to me that iran has its power base or influence at least in two cities in the region we've got in damascus in the syrian conflict and iraq, of course, we've got the shia militia there being backed by iran helping the iraqi forces against isil. if the houthi red lights back down, and they go to the negotiating table are we did to see iran perhaps back down in their push for more influence in the ring none

none. >> i don't think that whatever happens in yemen is going to create any sort of a counter reaction on the part of iranians elsewhere in the region. i think that the saudis are greatly exaggerating the influence of the iranians with the houthis. i think the houthis clearly particularly being show, a will accept support whenever they can find it and if they are able to get support from the iranians i am sure they will be very glad to accept it. that said they are not acting essentially as proxies of the iranians they are operate on the ground their own behalf with their own strategic objectives and and to the extent that the iranians can seize on this opportunity just as other external players are trying to seize on the opportunity to harm the proxies of their perceived enemies, i think that they will do so. but by the same token, i don't see this as a zero sum game across the ring.

>> uni need to ask you this question, do you think the international community has failed yemen in in any way? after all we saw the houthis take over the capital in september, but before that, there had always been warnings of their advance. we had always known that they -- what their aim was was to take over the capital. and they did in september. the international commune at this did nothing but ask for peaceful negotiations. do you think yemen has been let down by the international community? >> well, you know, it's seldom a good idea to involved in a complicated civil war situation. not to suggest that in the recent past yemen was in civil war. but it was in inning sip vinnie civil war as different factions were contending against one other. usually it's not wise for external parties to get involved in that sorts of a struggle, often they have a tendency to

change the nature of the struggle and make it worse rather than better think i think the fact that the international community has taken, up until now being a fairly cautious approach is actually quite sound. and i think at that the fact that at least elements of the international community the g.c.c. and some of nine allied companies are taking a much more muscular posture is probably not wise. i think a relative hands off approach would be the wiser course and unfortunately that's not the approach being followed by the saudis and their allies right now. >> thank you search for your insight, robert, there former counter terrorism official at the cia. speaking to us from washington. earlier we spoke with the former director of national security studies at the council on foreign relations, lawrence kolb, and he said the air strikes were inevitable. >> if the bombing doesn't achieve their objectives, what next? more bombing? how long will you continue? will you do it like libya where the bombing lasted for seven months before they actually, you

know, were able to get qaddafi out? what will they do if the houthis should sent insurgents in to saudi arabia. will they be willing to put ground forces in? hopefully -- it's very easy to start a war much more difficult to stop and you should think about these things before you start. what they are hoping this will have such a shock that the houthis will be willing to negotiate with the hadi government to come to some sort of power-sharing arrangement. >> do you think that will happen? how long can the houthis keep fight something. >> that will be an interesting question. i think this is the last thing they thought b they were just thinking that they could force out the government, because they did get the military on their side. they do have a sort of a primitive air force. but nothing like the saudis have. the saudis have american equipment. they buy from us the most sophisticated equipment in the world. so i don't think that they ever thought that the saudis would

come in. i think they thought they would chase out the government, they would take control and begin to run the place. >> do you think they are going to limbing i had this operation to just air strikes for now? >> well, i think so right now. because you put ground forces in then you can suffer a lot of casualties and it's a much different thing. as you know the united states found out when we went in to iraq. if you compare that say to the first gulf war, where we just got in through the iraq -- threw the iraqis out and got out and mainly bombed for 37 days before we sent the ground forces in back in the first gulf war so, no it's much more difficult when you take the next step. >> i am going to ask you to speculate here, we are hearing that over 10 nations are involved in this military operation. any idea what countries might be involved? and what their roles might be? >> again, it might be like some of the people who were bombing with us in the saudis in syria

you know, the united arab emirates, you know could provide some aircraft. i think the others may be providing bombs they may be have some intelligent, i don't know if they have people on the ground there. but as i look at it, so far it seems like mainly moral support that they are providing because in terms of the military operation, they don't need many more air forces. >> larry, how do you see things developing? how long do you see these air strikes going on for? >> well, i think that's the big question. i mean, how long will they be willing to do it? you know, make a week or so before they begin to see some results. if they don't or the houthis take other action, or iranian you know, proxies decide to do something, then that will be the key question. but i think they are hoping as we would use the term shock and

awe to begin with to get their attention and then, you know, be able to come to some sort of power sharing arrangement. >> and if they don't acquiesce and go back to the negotiating table, then what? then we are in this full-on proxy war a regional war perhaps, larry? >> well, yes, you can. and, yes, you could -- as i say wars are very easy to start. they are much more difficult to stop because then you want -- you don't want to lose face or look weak. and if the houthis can hold out then, you know, the next step is what do the -- what do the saudis do, do they increase the air campaign, do they send in, you know, ground troops. basically do they want to fight an insurgency and sort of inter city war as we saw in tikrit. it's much years said than done. let's get more on the situation in yemen. and ali is the director of the institute for gulf affairs and joins us now live from

washington d.c. tough very much for being with us. now, we have at least 10 countries, 10 nations who have pledged their support for the saudi arabian led coalition air strikes against the houthi rebels in yemen. why so much support? >> i think the support is from nations that are typically follow the saudi line, these are gcc countries who air very similar feelings towards yemen. you have jordan, which is always dependent on saudi support and ground support which we saw surprising is the participation of pakistan, the pakistani forces arrived in saudi arabia just a few days ago. and the pakistani chief of staff was in saudi arabia about 10 days ago and meeting with the saudi minister of defense. so, of course, the u.s. is part of that coalition, because they are providing logistic the and

intelligence and they have done that in 2009. so i think the saudis have so far been able to get that number of -- and egypt obviously too is providing support at least. i think they have been able to get that support because of these reasons. but this coalition might not end up standing especially i think in the next few days where new surprises will come if the yemenis, because people talking about this is a strike on the houthis, you know salah is not a huge and i his palace was attacked. if you go back to 29, you saw saudis bombing a small part of yemen for over 40 days and they were not successful in dislodging a few dozen hughes i rebels from saudi territories. and i think this is a bigger problemsproblem for the saudis.

>> you mentioned a few surprises here, you also mentioned their former president salah as well. do you think that the bombing of his presidential palace was actually, you know true try to rein him in because he has aligned himself with the former houthis. this is not just a strike again the houthis but also against those who may not be supporting saudi arabia and their agenda in the region. absolutely. this war the saudi war on yemen, it's on yemen not certain parts of yemen. the majority of the powers in yemen are on one side now. you call them the houthis salah and large parts of the army, and that's why this complex is going to be worse for soriao saudi arabia than 2009. the threat of 2009 still lived in assault and saudi arabia, at least 50,000 saudis were internally displaced

saudis who have been moved forcibly by the saudi government and this war will i think lead to probably at least 500,000 saudis leaving their homes because the houthis like they did in two number nine, will bring the war to the saudis . >> but how long can the houthis being a small tribal group, how long can they out last saudi arabia and their allies in the region though? >> i think that's the problem people think and use that term, mistakenly. and i have said this many time, you are not -- houthis is just one family. this is a group that is large that has thousands of members from across yemen across even sectarian divide, and they have a lot of the armed forces and their units on their side. they have the air force, they have appointed the air force commander. so they have a lot of support.

it's really a mistake and self delusional to say this is houthi versus saudi arabia. this is a huge number of -- a huge large -- a huge apartments of the yemeni population, including former president salah on one side, versus saudi arabia. minority who are siding against this popular movement. so this war is going to be very tough. >> where do you think, then, does iran fall in to your game play as you say? >> well, iran obviously supports this -- or the houthi movement. and because you see a lot of influence in 2009, there was no iranian support and you could see how the houthis were ale to withstands 90 days of bombardment and even a ground invasion and win. and they were smaller they

didn't have funding now iran is going to be an iranian interest. and they have the iran crane sea open in half a day they can sends and supply the yemeni supply with hundreds if not thousands of missiles and munitions that they can use against the saudi forces. if you look at another incidents in 20006 and 2013 where iran supplied hezbollah and hamas with weapons and rockets to fight better equipped, much more disciplined force the israeli army and these groups supported by iran were able to hold down the israeli superior force. so i think if yemen yemenis are known for the fact that they are tough fighters and because they are poor, they have less to lose

than the saudis, who will feel the pain in greater way than the em yemeni. the yemenis are used to this, the saudis are not. >> let's go to saudi arabia, we have been talk for a very long time about how these air strikes are going to affect yep end and the future in yemen. situation in saudi arabia, we've new king who has just ascended to the thrown. we have saudi arabia also fighting on the border to the north. isil the armed group isil as well. and to their south now they are fighting the houthis actually physically fighting the houthi rebels how long do you think saudi arabia is able to carry on these conflict on both sides? >> i mean, in the saudi participation in the bombing isis is very minimal. and it's really a token. >> but at the same time, --

[speaking at the same time] >> i am soar i have. at the same time we do have isil elements and other al cat a elements operating within saudi arabia. saudi arabia is fighting their own domestic internal terror. isil to the north. and houthis to the south. how long are they able to carry out these conflicts on all front in. >> i think they don't have the stamina. given the fact why people are surprised that the saudi government is which is traditional by have been keeping things very quiet and very reserved, you have right now a new government in saudi arabia, you spoke of king salmon. he does not run the show. he's too old to do it. it's his son his 28-year-old son, who is now the minister of defense. no experience in military strategy, no experience with the military whatsoever. and his nephew who is really running the show, american ally,

supported, close ally of the cia and the obama administration, so they have -- they are taking this huge risk in fighting and bombing yemen because they don't think yemen can fight back. i think they are -- they are mistake en. a rich country invading a poor country. will always end up losing because the poorer fighter is stronger much more dedicated than a rich fighter especially if that poor fighter that yemeni is living in a mountainous region like i said before if gaza, which is a flat small strip was not -- israel was not able to take it, i don't think the saudis will be able to really achieve much in rugged mountainous yemen. >> all right let's take a look at this coalition as you say you don't think the saudis and the coalition will have much

success in yemen. let's take a look at this coalition now. we have the saudis, we have the uae, the qataris bahrain jordan ma rack morocco pakistan have also pledged their support as well in this air strike. how strong is this coalition. >> i think it's a natural coalition because they governments have been allies for many years and they will send soldiers to fight. but the idea is that saudi arabia is going to have to pay for these people. the jordanians will ask no money. the pakistanis. the month rack moroccoans will ask for money. the domestic pressure especially in pakistan and morocca will force these country to his withdraw politely from this coalition. >> very interesting points there, you just made.

i want to focus our attention within yemen itself. and to president hadi, whose whereabouts are still unknown at the moment. we do know that he has pled the presidential palace in aden. how much do you think he has brought on this crisis in yemen? >> i think has been a leader that was weak, that he accepted basically to take on a position that he was not able to carry on. he was -- people say he was elected but you have remember for election was designs by the g.c.c. country the g.c.c. initiative, the united states and the u.n. supported wrongly supported, and he was the only candidate who was able to run for that election, so it was really a way to drive the success of the yemeni revolution and rob it from the yemeni

people. and the result is he becomes a legitimate, although he has. [ inaudible ] little regional government and the united states government. the arab spring has changed that you united states, and the g.c.c. must accept the fact that there are new realities in the region that people cannot. will not respect a government and a president whom they did not choose, who they don't feel represent them. that's what happened in yemen. hadi was electeds through a fair process, if he was, i don't think else have been overthrown. yemen would be more stable. what happened with the g.c.c. initiative was did he sign today really dictate for them. what the

yemen future was and that's why if failed. >> many have said that salah is behind the currents happening. where do you stand on the former president? >> i think i has been a player in this. he has supported. him losing power was hard for him. he brought up by the saudis in 1978. he was working for the saudis for many, many years and taking their money. but now he has grown he has become his own man. and he became independent and obviously he loves power and he's taken advantage of the situation. but also i think the rebels are taking advantage of him. so without him, they would not have been able to gain so much influence in the region, but at the end of the day i think the new kid on the block that are houthi, will be the winners on

top of this political pair mid. because they have shown, they have really -- and the media has not given them a fair trial, a fair look, they have gotten a lot of support from the yemeni population across sectarian lines. >> so tell under the circumstances, then, in your opinion, where do you see all of this leading towards? >> i think the air strikes really help prove that they are yemenis and not iranian proxies like the saudis would like to presents them because that is a very typical narrative that if you are against saudi arabia, you must be an agent of some country. iran mostly. but the fact that you will see yemenis unite. it's just a natural response, people when their country is attacked they unite around each

other. and i think the movement are going to be -- become more popular with -- because of these attacks and especially if they are able to reverse orin or invade saudi arabia and take saudi territories and saudi soldiers and achieve even small victories against the saudis. remember one thing since 2006 the houthi rebels when they were small in number they fought six wars with the yemeni army which was supported by the saudis and the americans and they won all of these wars. and they came and top. and so they have stamina. the saudis don't have the stamina. saudi army has never gone to war and won a single war. they have not done that before. so they don't that experience. the houthis do have that

experience. >> sir, thank you so much -- >> thank you. >> thank you for your insight. there there director of the institute for gulf affairs speaking to us from washington. now, if you have just joined us we have rolling coverage on the yemen crisis just to get you up-to-date. we have seen a saudi led coalition that has begun a military operation in generally overnight with air strikes against the houthi rebels who have over run the country. now, sarah is a political analyst and spoke to us a little earlier from the capital sanaa. >> there is shellings. first of all good morning ma'am ma'am. ithe late hours i woke up around 1:00 a.m. to a huge explosion. i have never experienced anything like this before at least not since 1994 when i was

six years old. today i would like to be a witness to give a testimony via this opportunity rather than being a political analyst. what i can describe is the sounds, i don't know if you can hear them. >> yes, we can. yeah, we can hear sounds going on. >> the sky is full of lights. yes, sanaa has witnessed a number of armed conflicts nothing has been this intense at least not since september 2011. and even then it wasn't this intense. the intensity is also psychological. this is a war that i as a yemeni have nothing to do with. neither of the two parts represent me. months ago the hope i had was within the peaceful resistence against any militia, any armed militia, any theo contract i can militia, now this is simply a

depiction of iran and saudi arabia. fighting their own war using our lands, using our people. it's important for me to mention that there is no such thing as separate military camps in sanaa sanaa. this is a problem that former president salah created. all the military camps are within residential areas right beside my house there is a camp. we are a very mixed socio system, these are civilians surrounding those camps. the saudi aircraft are shelling in the north and iranian supported militia is advancing in the south. and the only victim is civilians from this side and the other. and even those dieing on the front are poor yemenis who are paid for fight a war that is not even theirs. >> sarah, have you any idea of

the sorts of casualtys yet from these air strikes? >> nothing yet. i tried calling a couple of friends who live right next to a air force base but no response yet. i can only imagine what it's like over there. and also we need -- the morning will tell us about the casualties as in physical deaths. but we need to understand that -- i mean, there are other ramramifications besides the deaths. i think it's not too late to stop this madness i think there is still a chance for both of iran and saudi arabia that to understand this is not the right war zone for them and that ramifications are going to hurt everybody in the region. yemenis really want peace. yemenis have been living without a president even -- i mean, even before president hadi had flee to aden, even before that when technically there was no president or no government.

people still went to the markets, people still had their weddings people still tried to, you know, maintain a normal life. there weren't any cases of high crime rate or robbery, in spite of the complete absence of a form of security, yemenis really want to live. what iran and saudi arabia is doing right now is turn this is in to a war zone where nothing is going to come from it but revenge. the one thing theup should have done is to listen to the 20 points that were suggested by the national dialogue conference operation committee. those 20 points would have built a right base for guy log and would have prevented all of that. the one right thing that the u.n. can do is to stop dealing with yemen as an agenda, to start listening to local experts instead of his he inning to expats who only look at yemen as a war seen and as a model fighting al qaeda. there is more in to yemen