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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  April 3, 2015 2:00am-2:31am EDT

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n air of tension right now... >> the crowd chanting for democracy... >> this is another significant development... >> we have an exclusive story tonight, and we go live... night. as winston churchill warned his country men 70 years ago, it may not be the beginning of the end, but may be the end of the beginning. from lausanne, news went out that iran, the p5+1, and germany have a deal in principle and are drafting a document representing the deal begins. there are tough months ahead. but the parties are talking like they have cleared an enormous hurdle.
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it's "inside story". open doors to inspectors, iran's shipping much of its enriched radio active material out of the country. iran continuing to have a nuclear enrichment programme. phased time lines of 10-20 years, and there's more we don't know about the fine detail of the agreement. sounds like every nation got enough of what it wanted so it could be called a break through. secretary of state john kerry said it's a standard iran can meet and one they greed to meet. now the drafting of a document locking in requirements from all the parties. how does that get down. the united states senate - is it waiting to slap sanctions on iran, even as america's representatives to the talks are detailing the sanctions that may be taken off.
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this time on the programme we break down what we do know. the parties stating that nothing is agreed shl everything is great. the framework deal saying iran is reduced by two-thirds the numbers of centrifuges from 19,000 to 6,000, and mr not enrich -- and will not enrich uranium over 7" for years. -- 7% for years, and will provide access for the i.a.e.a. to all facilityiesand so they can vet sites. in exchange iran gets out from under the u.s. and european sanctions so long as it abides by commitments. should iran fail to do so, the place. >> when you hear the critics of the deal sound off, ask a simple question.
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do you think this deal, if implemented, backed by the major powers is a worse option than the risk of another war in the middle east? is it worse than doing what we have done for two decades with iran moving forward with it nuclear programme, and without robust inspections? clear. >> again, it's not a done deal, but the enthusiasm for it was widespread. not everyone agrees that this is cause to celebrate. we'll begin with henry, executive director of the nonproliferation pollie education center. . >> thanks for having me. let me put to you the question put to the press corp. is this worse than another wore in the middle east? >> wrong question. >> well, that was his question. >> it's silly. look, you get an impression when
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we read what we know put out by the white house, that iran looks like it was willing to throw much of the nuclear programme and the weapons programs under the bus to get the sanctions lifted. the question that arises is what might happen when the sanctions are lifted. by the way, the foreign minister was concerned that we were spinning the deal. so there may be different deals about how this works. he tweeted saying you shouldn't have put the fact sheet out. that said, when and if we raise or lift the actions, what, exactly will follow. will iran, having gotten what it wants take the risk of not complying. when you take a look at this par some terse document. and you gave a good presentation, but it's more complicated than you presented. it has a lot of moving parts. so the question is will they
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exploit the ambiguities or not. if they do, just exactly what will we do. you mentioned that the president will snap back the sanctions much the word, and the repeated use of it in this fact sheet. >> and by the secretary of state highlights how hard it might be. you wouldn't use the word if it was that easy. >> it shows the intention of the united states to signal to its allies in this is not a get out of gaol free card for iran. >> no, i know, but the point here is that it may not be as easy as snapping back. and the point i'm trying to make is not to bad mouth the deal, but to highlight that the question about the phasing which the iranians think is important is very important. and to make judgments about this, we'll wait. it looks like they were willing to give up a great deal. finally, what is tight about the
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agreement is stunning. there is an indefinite - if we are going into recycling spend fuelment there's a lot of countries that don't do that. what is tight about this highlights a kind of interest question. we have learn, you and i, covering this official, the documents, we have finally mastered to some extent. greater than before how dangerous it might be. we are not talking about centrifuges. work units. and all sorts of things. it raises an interesting question. if we put the standards on iran because we are aware of the limits of inspections and the dangers of getting close to weapons activities, why would you want to lift the restrictions after a certain number of years.
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>> because it's the only way you could get the iranians to surrender their second generation centrifuges, which they do in the deal, get them to ship out the enriched material. >> all right. >> get them to give up the heavy water plant. >> okay. >> get them to tear the ducks out of the plutonium system, is this not the quid pro quo. >> we have no position in america, we have to do this because of that. the rest of the world doesn't work that way, and physics and engineering doesn't work that way. it's a certain set thing. fine, i get the point you make. here is the thought. maybe we need to think that these tougher rules, at a minimum. we may want to make them not only tough on iran, but tough on programme. if you did this, it would raise first order questions about certain activities, some of
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these things, like processing and enrichment you are best not getting into. >> let's change the topic a little bit. with 10 and 20 years, and the 20 years, they'll look over the shoulders, if you believe the document. they'll look over the shoulders of iran's nuclear scientists for 20 years. there are guys entering graduate schools that will have inspectors looking over their shoulder. wasn't this worth doing, was it worth the long nights, and the tough negotiating to get to something that is much better than the nothing that we had 18 months ago. >> you try to push me into terrible. >> no, i want your idea of where this stands in the realm of possible outcomes. >> i think the worry i have, and you and i are old enough, maybe not 20, but 15 years, to see things like the agreed framework
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with north korea, a deal about suspecting and doing certain things. it was a simpler deal. it fell apart in eight years. when it fell apart, it ended up with a come. the worry i have is this is complex, and it's not going to be all that easy to keep everyone on board and inspecting for 20 years in all of this. there's a lot of things that could fall apart. it would be better if it was simpler, but it's not going to be. it will be complex, and it really will challenge us. all i can say is it would be nice if it was as clear as it could be, and this is where they'll have to go between now and june. and frankly it would be nice if the strictest parts were like the reprocessing. simple and clear and easy. whereas when you start having to have people stand over one another to check for each gram, trouble.
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the idea you can keep that, i think, is difficult. you want to keep it simply. binary is something present or not. we are into some very sophisticated stuff. >> as it rolls out and as we learn more about it. we'll have to have you back. >> i'll enjoy it. >> thank you for joining me. >> okay. >> you heard about how much is yet to be done, and how much can go wrong. we heard the president of the united states talking about how the alternatives to making a deal with iran didn't look so good either. when we come back, the political, technical and security aspects that remain as the agreement moves ahead. iran is still boll storeingsome governments fighting against, and sometimes fighting with the united states. plenty more on "inside story".
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[ ♪♪ ] >> we have stopped a cycle that was not in the interests of anybody. not in the interests of nonproliferation, and not in the interests to anyone, that will, in fact, be a gain for all parties concerned. i hope at the end of this process we'll show the true dialogue and engagement with dignity, can, in fact, resolve problems, open new horizons and move forward. thank you very much welcome back to "inside story" on al jazeera america. i'm ray suarez, we hope you get your armed around the agreement with iran, and preventing them developing a nuclear weapon. that was the foreign minister gar
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zarif celebrating the agreement. will an agreement with the intended results materialize, how might this change the u.s. relationship with iran. with me are jamal abdi, policy director at the national iranian american council of and barbara slaven, oo nonresident member of the south asian center and author. jamal, let me start with you. do you come down a little closer to henry's caution and skepticism, or the optimism and freely openly made statements thing? >> well, i do think everybody won. i think i came down on the side of everywhere at the netting tail. i think the sides overperformed. everyone got something they can go home and tell constituents we won, we got what we wanted. that's the bottom line.
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>> is it so complicated to carry out. this is a fearsome set of requirements, that there's going to be, instead of lowered suspicion, heightened suspicion for a while? >> you know, trust was the big gap here, but i think the parties, by talking, for 18 months, managed to bridge. now, is the deal too complicated? i don't think there a way that you get a deal dealing with nuclear physics. international sanctions, and seven countries, many with no love loss with one another, and you put something together that is simple than the framework outlined. it's not possible. the trust deficit has been addressed and we are on a path to more understanding and less of the hostilities that fuelled the mistrust. >> this afternoon the president looked confident in this was a good deal, and one that he could sell to the american people. do you agree? >> i think he can tell it to the american people, i'm not sure
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about the american congress, and he has to sell to israel and the arab states. come. >> is that the kind of thing, winning that kind of acceptance, because of strongly held positions in the past, almost impossible to get. so you have to move ahead not? >> from obama's point of view nonproliferation is important, and reaching out to rogue states is important. this is the third rogue state that he managed to reach agreement with - burma, cuba and now iran. it's part of the his dna that he believes that through diplomacy that you can bridge some differences that have been cast in stones for decades. >> does this mean, jamal, eventually at least a workable relationship between iran and the united states, quite oven i drive by what used to be the iranian embassy and look at the
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closed up windows and darkened building and think could someone of. >> soon might be wishful thinking. this is a great hope, at least for myself, that you have a deal that attempts to, for 10 years, restrain iran's nuclear capabilities. and then after that, you know, there are some measures that stay in place. a lot do evaporate. i think the change is in those 10 years we define the relationship. changing it into when u.s. wins, iran losses and figure out a plus-sum dynamic, where the united states and iran can use diplomacy to deal with overlapping centers such as afghanistan, defeating i.s.i.s., and deal with areas where they have big difference, but where there's a deficit of diplomacy, where you have political
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solutions like the one in syria and yemen, and that it is the beginning of a process to bring iran into the process, where you are not alienating close allies. >> it's been 36 years since the embassy hostage crisis, the break down of a longstanding relationship between the united states and iran. 36 years where it seems to be the same thing, but it hasn't. neither are flies in amber. leaders in the united states are more or less hostile to rain. iranian leaders who are quietly willing to talk and ones who are out and out hostile. >> when you talk about deals lasting 10-20 years, if a hard liner exceeds president obama, if one succeeds hassan rouhani, this could all look pretty fragile, no? >> well, that is a big concern obviously, what happens
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with our leaders. president obama has a year and a half to implement the deal, to show that iran can be trusted. and the next president in both countries will have to look and say what's the altenive. the hope is it will prove itself i think it's possible that it will. what are the alternatives, more sanction. binyamin netanyahu talks about a better deal, keeping up economic pressure. the europeans are not going to impose more sanctions on the iranians nor the asians. we were at the maximum when the process began, that's why both decided it was time so sit and try to reach an agreement. now? >> no, it's not. if you look at the interim deal reached in november of 2013, it
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took a couple of months to but the flesh on the bone. this is similar. many servers were surprised by the degree of specificity, and the fact sheet that the white house put out. there are unanswered questions, like what happened to the stockpile of low and enriched uranium uranium, how do they answer questions about past military dimensions. they'll have to be resolved. numbers were there. 5,000 centrifuges, instead of 9,000. you know laments on how long to hold on to stockpiles or use the centrifuges. that was there in back and white. that was impressive. >> earlier iranian leaders said iran does not desire an atomic bomb. did you believe him then, now we know what's been going on underground? do you believe him now?
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>> there has been no unified position inside iran on this issue. i think that the track record is spotty. i think that there's some in iran who believe that having the ability to break out could give iran leverage. i don't think iran made the decision to build nuclear weapons. they never crossed the line. and importantly, the leadership in place, they are individuals who have argued in very detailed and sophisticated ways why getting a nuclear weapon undermines security in the region, why it would establish parity for other countries in the region, that would undermine iran's security, i think they believe getting a nuclear weapon is not in iran's interests, and the perception is that it center. >> great to see you both.
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thank you. >> after the american deadline of march 31st came and went without a deal, all sides went into around the clock talks. they have born - what do you call it tentative fruit. we get the latest from the white house, ahead on "inside story". >> al jazeera america brings you a first hand look at the environmental issues, and new understanding of our changing world. >> it's the very beginning >> this was a storm of the decade >>...hurricane... >> we can save species... >> our special month long focus, fragile planet
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>> if congress kills the deal not based on expert analysis, and without offering a reasonable alternative, it's the united states that will be blamed for the failure of dip loam has a. international community will collapse, and the path to conflict will widen. >> both screrecretary of state john kerry and president obama were careful in their public statements to strike a note the caution along with the satisfaction of a deal with the iranian. the president called it historic, reiterated a backing
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of israel and said the tentative deal can block iran's construction of a nuclear bomb. al jazeera's senior washington correspondent mike viqueira is with us. it looks like the white house considers it a breakthrough, not later. >> they do. a lot of experts agree, a lot were surprised with the level of space iffisty achieved in this agreement. it came two days after the white house wanted it to come. it came nonetheless, and what you saw was the president today trying to seize the initiative. in a sense the hard work is yet to come. we heard the tick-tock, the behind the scenes details, the secretary of energy, ernst monese in switzerland negotiating with his counterpart. this morning, 6:00a.m. swiss time midnight in corey washington, nailing down the final details according to the aids, of the research and development programme.
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they wanted to preserve some of that. they came to the agreement and president obama at midnight was on the phone to negotiators, midmorning, when the president met with advisors he gave the go ahead to the deal. after that you saw president obama appear in the rose garden, there's no question that the white house is trying to emphasise the fact that president obama played a hands-on role. and what you saw was president obama trying to get out ahead of the critics, and there are plenty of critics, getting ahead of the critics. docket. >> let's remember a month ago prime minister binyamin netanyahu was in washington speaking to a joint session of congress, that was already on record promising to lay more sanctions on iran in the middle of an american negotiation. does this deal, or at least the
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outline of a deal throw cold water on that? >> i don't think so. i think you are going to see conservatives, those with presidential aspirations jump on board. what i think you are seeing is a vindication of binyamin netanyahu in surprising many people in winning, coasting to victory in israel two weeks after the speech, but he won handily in that election. it may not have thrown cold water on it. it let a little air out of the balloon, and that is the senate would take up a measure enabling congress to give the thumbs up or down. and that enough democrats would join in the senate. gaving veto proof. i think you'll see a push for republicans to take a close look at the easing of sanctions inherent in this, not that
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explicit, but all the details. that was not one of them. you see how speaker john boehner called that into questions, they want to know how they'll be lifted. all the white house officials would say is with each step towards implementing the agreement that iran takes, there'll be an easing of united states sanctions. the one thing that people forget is congress can't simply act to enforce or lift the sanctions much the president has a waiver. if congress doesn't act on the sans, the president -- sanctions, the president can wave the sanctions and hold up the united states end of the deal, a deal created today. >> one thing that was striking about the president's comments is he was so definitive, un lib secretary of state john kerry -- unlike secretary kerry who default on the work. the president said this is it, it blocks the road to an iranian bomb. it was definitive. >> there were two reasons. again, the president is trying
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to paint this in forceful terms possible. the breakout time, limiting the enrichment capability and the iranian stockpiles that iran has, so if they break the agreement, it would take at least a year to build the bomb, and the inspections, what the white house calls intrusive, many outside experts agree that if iran decided to build a bomb, they couldn't. they are the points the president kept coming back to. >> thank you mike viqueira in washington. tomorrow, it's final four, the players that generate hundreds of millions for television networks and universities don't earn a penny for them. has the time come for the athlete in college to get a percentage of that. thanks for join us, until next time, i'm ray suarez. sh
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>> >> [ ♪♪ ] on "america tonight", the release of aung san suy kyi, the suspension of u.s. sanctions and a rise in tourism opened up burma to the world. [ explosion ] but there is a side of burma the government does not advertise. a surge in violence by the burmese army also tonight... >> a worse nightmare that a parent could go through.

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