rite balance is. ♪ ♪ too many debates, too many candidates, and in the end a compromise nominee. looking back at the 2012 presidential race, republicans said we are not going to do that again. fast forward to 2015 and depending on the day, there are almost 20 declared, prepared or rumored candidates. the crowded g.o.p. field how it helps and hurts the party. that's tonight's "inside story." ♪

♪ ♪ welcome to "inside story." i am ray suarez. the race for the white house is officially on. even though it's still 18 months before election day. pundits and political pros looking at republican prospects for 2016 like to say the g.o.p. had a deep bench. lots of charismatic poll ticketses from different wings and political tendencies ready to make a plausible run at the presidency. but the thing about a deep bench is nobody imagines every player will try to take the field all at once, does a party that has lot of the popular vote five out of the last six elections believe even in to the pool is going to pick a winner? we'll start with al jazerra america's david shuster. >> thank you guys for opening your home. >> in the early voting

nomination states of iowa and new hampshire it's easy to find republican presidential candidates. never mind these six who have already formerly declared, five more are expected to jump in soon. >> if you are looking to washington for hope, you will have nothing but despair and despondency. >> all of the republicans share a few things in common, their rhetoric about president obama has been harsh. >> this president is the single worst negotiator we have had the in the white house in high lifetime. >> and they have shown a deep disdain for hillary clinton. >> i am getting ready to do something too. i am running for president. >> our founders never intended us to have a professional political class. >> the major remember kansas datz though, are trying to set themselves apart from each other. kentucky senator rand paul is a libertarian who wants to end the war on marijuana. >> and promoting making the penalties much less severe.

>> unlike most remember kansas datz, former arkansas governor mike huckaby is defending social security. >> if congress wants to take away someone's retirement, let them in their own congressional pensions, not your social security. [cheering and applause] >> texas freshman senator ted cruz believes in limited executive power. >> on the first day i intend to re60 every illegal and unconstitutional action that president obama put in to place. >> and florida freshman senator marco rubio age 43 is the youngest candidate in the field and the son of cuban immigrants. >> i live in an exceptional country where the son of a bar tender and a maid can have the same dreams of those that come from power and privilege. >> the only woman on the g.o.p. side and neurosurgeon ben carson has never before run for elected office. >> obama care is really, i

think, the worst thing that has happened in this nation since slavery. >> according to early polling jeb bush who was expect today announce his candidacy in weeks will enter as the front runner, analysts say bush is on target to raise more money than any presidential primary candidate in u.s. history. but bush could be vulnerable in the conservative primaries thanks to his relatively moderate views on education and immigration reform. >> we should give them a path to legal status where they work, where they don't receive government benefits. >> wisconsin governor scott walker a top bush thread thr*et has been urged to run by well identity conserve at this donors lindsey graham considered to be a foreign policy expert hats been urged to run by his closest friend, senator john mccain, the 2008 republican nominee. former senator rick santorum won the iowa caucuses in 2012 and has been the most hawkish about certain strands of islam.

>> if isis wants to establish a seventh century caliphate let's owe blame them by bombing them back to the seventh century. >> and new jersey governor chris christie by most accounts is viewed at the best on one on one retail pom pom ticks but christy has been overshadowed bice had i temper as evidenced last fall with a heckler. >> sit down and shut up. >> joining me now from new york is al jazerra's david shuster david, sit down but do not shut up. isn't this exactly what the party said after the 2012 race it wanted to avoid, a huge and possibly very well-funded field that could go deep in to the primary season? >> and that's just the issue you that you'll hear a number of republican officials talk about that there is nothing they can do about it, though, so many republicans and looked up and seen what barack obama did eight years ago and think, you know ma maybe i can catch lightning in a bottle or if i lose maybe being be like hillary clinton

and get a lot of exposure and great job in the administration or run again or be like mike huckaby he came in 30 by got that show on fox news, so even losing has its advantage how will they try to figure out how to manage the debates and what is the cut off because they simply say you can't have 16 to 20 candidates standing there on a stage and have it make any sense. >> and that's a serious problem we toss it off and you say they can't have 16 candidates on stage, but telling something they can't come isn't as easy as all that? >> that's right. there are so many different ways you can measure it, by how they are doing in the poll numbers one set of numbers, you can measure by who has the best national organization, rants paul would be at the top of that particular survey, you can go by who will have the most amount of money and, that would be jeb bush based on the money he has rolled over in a super pack. the matrix are completely different. and the parties say each metric

is crucial in terms i've long-term campaign it. will not be easy for them to solve. >> if we think about the ideological continuum of the republican party are a lot of these campaigns crowded in to one part of let's say the lanes that might lead toward a nomination? >> i think that's fair to say. you look at, for example we didn't -- we didn't even mention, for example ohio governor john kasich who would be part of establishment within the republican party he may be getting in. he could occupy the same space as say jeb bush or george pataki another former new york governor who may get in. or possibly we were talking about, for example rick perry there is a whole slew conservative but more establishment candidates and then you have the ones feating for the tea party support like ted cruz and also perhaps marco rubio. and then senator rand paul, so -- and then, of course, the evangelical vote. mike huckaby and rick santorum

so they slice the pie up very thin, that's where you get the sense from republican party officials somebody that has a lot of mon that i has something of the establishment support like jeb bush but a lot of money for the long-term may be in the best shape to go the distance. >> the way the primaries are structured are there candidates that can get really a handful of votes every time but keep picking up deligates as they continue to lose individual contests. >> the best example that have is mike huckabee, moves to sacramento and has a shot, then isn't able to use their base or whatever it left of it on super tuesdays the key will be money. who has the money to advertise even this they don't do so well in early contest. >> that's our david shuster david, great to talk to you. >> thanks, ray. some of the republicans in the race will very likely never be president.

up next we'll and some g.o.p. insiders how the party feels about such an he form us group of contendsers and whether they think some should bow out of the race for the good of the party. it's the "inside story."

i amount john henry smith at the al jazerra america news headquarters with the latest on the breaking news we have been reporting all night long. five people have been killed, dozens hospitalized after an amtrak train bowned for new york from washington, d.c. derailed late tuesday just outside of philadelphia, downtown philadelphia last report six people are in critical condition. authorities say they have still not accounted for everyone on the passenger manifest. stay tuned to al jazerra america for further updates. ♪ ♪ there are 16, count them, 16 declared reimered or all but

declared candidates for the republican nomination for president in 2016 fox a party trying to recapture the white house after eight careers of president obama, is that the best way to get a winning candidate? rich gal sun a republican strategist columnist and former press spokesman to vice president dan quail and speaker of the house newt gingrich and bruce haines is a republican strategisted that served as a media consultant to the 2008 u.s. presidential independent expenditure campaign. is this in i way to get a nominee, bruce? >> i think it's the way it will be this time. and i think it's, you know, it's a crowded field but it's a good time to be a republican. i feel like when you look at our field in 2012 and you come to today, it's like moving off the used car lot to the new car lot. but there are a lot of quality candidates in this field. i think there were sick or seven team that you could see being president in this field.

new and different and exciting like carli new for the field. i think it's a good field for the republicans republicans and we'll type something in the group that can run and win. >> rich, same question. >> as you pointed out earlier when you were talking to david shuster this is a long way between now and iowa. i think eight or nine months before just the first one. much less new hampshire, south carolina, and north carolina. and not everybody is going to stay in that long. money will run out. people will get tired. they will recognize they are not going to make a did he want in the polls and they'll start dribbling off certainly around the time of the iowa straw poll in august peel will people will not mesh you were there. by the time we get to the end of the year of 2015 and begin moving in to the evening numbered year that this field will self window and be down to probably the five or six people that have a legitimate shot and should have a legitimate shot. >> i think the point you make makes a lot of sense.

talk. >> you but if we look at 2012. let's look at your old boss newt gene grieve. because he had financial backing he was deep in the primaries evening though he wasn't winning anything. rick santorum dropped out in april because he ran out of money he should won almost twice the number of delegates at newt gingrich but he could stay in the race. can you see that? >> sure more than ever before because the super packs marco rune yo was a guy that so dislikes jeb bush will put up unlimited amounts of money to keep senator rubio in the race other, people have those things as well. that could alter the landscape. for question about it. even the big donor ors say i am a businessman, this is not going anywhere. through for playing, you need to

go home now. >> bruce, last time armed people looked at the debate schedule i combination of a large field and wedebate schedule and said let's not do this it's top. already scheduled for 2015 are a long series of debates all over the country. they will be burning up the frequent flyer miles and the jet con trails heading to heather and i don't yon that's just already on the calendar as we speak in may 2015 and there will be many more because we will be deep in in to the primary season after the new hampshire in the beginning of february. what can you do about an enormous field which takes the spotlight off these people that you are talking about the five, six, seven really plausible nominees? >> i think it's part of the challenge of running for president. you have for find a way to step forward and standout from the crowd and rise above, you know, the folks in the race primarily to get speech contracts or sell

books or do those kind of things. so for the top tier candidates people like marco rubio like jeb bush, scott walker and maybe ted cruz and rand paul. this is their chance to shine and show their political skills and show that they can step out of a crowded field and take control. interesting thing about newt gingrich one of the ways he stayed in was the debate in south carolina, that's where i am from i was in the hall that night when he took control of the debate at the beginning of the did debate. stood out, won the primary some few days later and was able to sustain his entire campaign for months i don't understand because of that. whereas mid romney had an opportunity to score a knockout punch that night and close that primary down pretty early he didn't do it. i can at the ended the primary and showed showed us what kind of candidate he would end up being. >> as a practical matter can you tell people they can't be on the stage. you heard the names bruce just mentioned can you tell carli fee

rinne she's not in the debate. or ben carson? >> sure, depends on what the rules are and whether you win the lawsuit that immediately follows it. the other opportunity is to have a lazy susan where everybody perform in the round. that's not that's not right. but one of the things the debates do they are part of the winnowing process. tim said they would do something to romney and they said would you repeat to stage with romney there and he couldn't do it and and his campaign was over. rick perry when he couldn't remember the department of education the whoops moment. they are part of the process and for most of us, it's what we do every four years, it's fun to watch. and they'll figure it out. >> sure some people melt under the spotlight but some people make a splash that they wouldn't make any other way which gives them oxygen to continue even though if we were speaking

privately instead of with all these cameras around we would whisper they never are going to be president. >> well, and that will be part of the fun. but the debates are only part of the process, too. it's one way that we explore what kind of president that these people would be. but another way is we see them on the stump. it's wonderful new hampshire. iowa, people will get a lot of wouldn't one contact. meet people in their living rooms, going to be exposed to a lot of television advertising that hopefully communicates what a candidate's priorities would be, how they would want to governor and they'll some some things to say about how they think the others in the field would governor too so there will be a lot of information besides just the debates coming in and giving voters a chance to sort these people it will be a strength for some. it will be a weakness for others. but for a lot of voters, your presence on television, how you command the stage what it tells pima lot about what kind of leader you are going to be. >> been that way since 1960.

>> been that way since john f. kennedy. and you can make an argument that we want to see those people in that arena and see how they will react under fire. >> even those that get through the early process the early states that come one after the other, once you get in to march and april and even may where these primaries come tumbling over each other three four, five on the same day, 13 days after the last one. it's not just the amount of money that you have it's whether you can organize a campaign, manage a campaign, lets your people do the things that you can do. not everybody has that skill which is a skill you absolutely have to have in you are going to be -- if you are going to be president of the united states. >> let's talk a wee bit about issues instead of politics. is the difference between the primary electorate and the general electorate in the case of the republican party particularly, something making -- does that make it something of an obstacle course on issues like immigration or the future of game marriage now

that 36 states have it and all the republican field are against it. >> gamegay marriage may be settled by the supreme court. you have to run to the edge whether you are a left -- run to go. as a democrat or the right as a republican and try to get back to the middle as much at possible. those are the days before google. you can't do that any jose one thing in alabama and one thing in massachusetts and the electorate is smarter than we give them credit for. when with comes to the crunch. after they get through the process of discussing who is the cutest girl at the prom, what it will come down to is who can beat hillary clinton approximate & who republicans believe can do that as the result of all of these other things we have talked about that's going to be the most important things not their particular stance on one specific issue.

>> do you agree with that? >> yes. as much as we like to talk about the issue of the day gay marriage, immigration or the latest battle before the supreme court or the thing that pops up in the press, there will still be two big things that republican primary voters care can about. that will be what kind of security president are you going to be on foreign policy and what kind of economy president will you be. how will you get it moving again, stimulate investment. create jobs. it's -- people will vote their safety and pocketbook at the end of the day. and those things will be topics of conversation that will be very important to different parts of the republican. but it takes a big coalition to go through the different states. long marathon run and put together the group of voters it takes to win. >> and turn them out in november. >> brought to talk to you both, hope i can talk on you both as the race ripe ends. >> any time. >> my flesh. >> you are our vanity candidates and message candidates a luxury

party out of the white house can't afford? or is there an argument to be made that i crowded field delivers a tougher tested nominee once the conventions are over? is history in either party any good? stay with us, it's "inside story."

♪ welcome back to "inside story," 2016 is one of those presidential years when there won't be an inning incumbents on the democratic side there is one huge name, former secretary of state hillary clinton. on the republican side, the biggest may be former florida governor jeb bush. but he doesn't seem to be scaring anyone enough to stay out of the race. genie teaches campaign management at new york university and political science at iona college. and joins us now. professor, i don't think i can remember a field with 16 candidates in it.

have there been any? >> you know, not for a very long time. this is an absolutely, as you were just talking about crowded field. it is a flat field in terms of the poll numbers. and that makes it really unpredictable. in my minds it's very much a field that looks a little bit like the democratics in the early 1970s, 1972 and 1976. you know, those are times when you had a crowded field in the democratic side. the top tier candidates not quite as crowded as this. and, of course, what happened in both of those cases was the establishment figures didn't win the nomination. and that's usually a sign of a party struggling to find out who it is and how it will go forward and how it will present itself to the american public. it's usually a sign of a party that is not quite as healthy as it should be. so that is one of the negative aspects of this very crowded field. and as you mentioned before, there are some positive aspects but one of the negative aspects

is the establishment has lost control of the process and they are being inning inundated by co attorney shall candidates. >> let's show the people at at what you mean by a flat field. this is a poll of polls if you will. and it has jeb bush at 15 1/2%. marco rubio nipping at his heels at 14.3%. governor walker of wisconsin right behind them. at 12.3%. and rants paul, ted cruz, and mike huckabee not too far behind. jeb bush for all his formidably organization, his family ties and the tremendous fundraising ability he has doesn't seem to be head and shoulders above the field at all. >> yeah, you are absolutely right. and that's a great example of what we mean by a flat field. of course what happened in a flat field people who you would never expect to mount a serious campaign for the presidency of the united states are able to do so. and what it also means is that

the leading candidate doesn't have to appeal to as many members of the party as he or she would if it was a head to head race. and so somebody like jeb bush benefits to a certain amount by the flat field where he's got conservatives on his right in, particular breaking up that conservative base. and all vying for support. and if he is able to wish everybody a small number of the remaining moderates in the party, he can go onto take this, you know take this nomination, of course, a draw back for him is going to be he can be beat up essentially by the end of this process. depending, of course if those conservatives stay in the race and if they feel like they can make a go of it through particularly south carolina and they keep pushing ahead. on the one hand this is a good find for jeb bush -- sign for jeb bush and on the other hand, depending on what happens, he could feel the affects of this going forward. >> does the money and how people are raising money also mean that there could be a big plausible

field very late in the game? >> yeah. i am so happy you mentioned the money, because i think this is one of the big question yes marks we are in the first real campaign because in 2012 we had an incumbent president. but the first real campaign which is open for both parties in which we have citizens united the mccutchen ruling out of the supreme court, you have this unrestricted fundraising going on. big, big money. and i think that's part of what is going on in the republican side in particular. because what is happening is that those big money donors that have taken the power away from the party establishment, so to speak. they are controlling. so if you are a scott walker and the koch brothers say listen if you run we will support you. that's a big incentive to run in this kind of -- in this kind of, you know, time in american history. so i think the big question mark is is going to be how does that unrestricted money play? and are the parties going to be frustrated by the fact that they

are losing control of this process. and i think that that is probably a -- what is happening here the party establishment is giving power over to this big money and, of course, you know, you can say there are good argument to be made for that. but i have to say i think it is a bad sign for american politics when the parties lose control like it looks like they have. >> genie teaches campaign management as nyu and political science at iona college thanks for being with us. i'll have some final thoughts in a moment about december grahams destiny and the gop it's "inside story."

♪ is demography destiny? a new stud friday the pugh research center fines christians still the overwhelming majority of americans are a shrinking portion of the population. the fastest growing part of the population has no religious identification. the average white christian in the u.s. is 56. the average unaffiliated person is 36. and every survey find more and more people below 36 are abandoning religion. if they ever had one. white christian conservatives are a cornerstone of republican success over the past 35 years. but when are republicans search for success in the 2020s and 2030s, it may be a less reliable approach to insist the u.s. was founded by god is a christian nation or could use the bible as a governor document. future voters may be asked do share the party's view on how to govern an increasingly pluralistic america rather than on how the world came to be and

whether god makes our laws. i am ray suarez, thanks for joining us for the "inside story." ♪ ♪ choice they have is to return to iraq and afghanistan where their death is almost guaranteed "america tonight"s sheila macvicar with a look at the shocking conditions facing some of the most loyal defenders of america. and making work pay. the high price facing low income workers. >>