ty site has been designated a landmark because of its role history. >> i'm antonio mora thank you for joining us for the latest news head to aljazeera.com. ray suarez is next with "inside story". have a great night. [ ♪♪ ] n.a.t.o. troops practice repelling a russian invasion. the united states sends weapons to eastern europe. russia's leaders cultivate and support american enemies with high-profile visits. sounds a lot like the bad old days of the cold war, but it's really right there in today's headlines. could it be cold war ii. it's "inside story".

welcome to "inside story". i'm ray suarez, the cold war casts a long shadow one that stretched across much of the world from the 1950s to the 1980s much of the world was pushed to choose side between two contending powers. after joining forces the united states and the soviet union never went to war against each other, but other countries faced off at a cost of untold lives and trillions. in korea, the congo, vietnam, angola and the european continent prepared to become the stage on which the final act would be played. there was practice and prepares for an invasion from the soviet

union. are we watching the deepening chill of cold war ii. here is al jazeera's john terrett. >> reporter: officially the cold war started when twa stopped in 1945/"46, and ended when the ber bin wall came down in 1989 and the berlin wall imploded. u.n. officially some argued the cold war never went away. moscow and washington seldom messed app opportunity to bash each other and the chilled winds may blow again. the "new york times" talk about a laser us moment in the cold war. like the invasion of hungry in 1956 the berlin wall in 161, the cuban missile process in '62 and the prague spring russia's annexation and the

skirmishes between russian backed separatist and forces are to blame for re-igniting cold war jitters. a series of statements and manoeuvres by both sides attract the attention of observers, and they are worried. it's not difficult to see why. in a move to deter russian aggression the united states let it be known for storing battle tank fighting vehicles and other weapons in several baltic and former east european countries. if the u.s. does this it will be the first time they've been in these places. a clear message to moscow that n.a.t.o. allies will defend member nation even those it shares borders with or is close to russia. in a sign that has many concerned, russia is hitting back threatening to boost the

deadliest of all weapons, the nukes. president vladimir putin said russia will bring 40 intercontinental missiles into service by year's end. it's a response by the russian leader to the u.s. proposals regarding equipment and personnel in eastern european n.a.t.o. states. n.a.t.o. condemned the russian announcement. >> this nuclear sabre rattling of russia is unjustified. it's destabilizing and dangerous. >> what happens next is anyone's guess. vladimir putin is playing down the forwards of a rush an attack on forces in eastern countries, to many it's a warmed over cold war, no one can say for sure where the back and forth volleys may lead. joining me for a look at

russia the u.s. and a retro tone in the international politics is seven piper, director of the arms control and nonproliferation toby the senior director for russia at the national security council, and she's now an international advisor, and will pommerance deputy director of the cannon institute for advanced russian studies at the wilson center. the cold war was just over when you were in government. are there mornings when you peck up the papers and it feels fresh in your mind? >> it feels fresh, the time when we made the gold water history, and the steps taken to bring the two countries together. that time was gone, the russia that existed is gone. both countries changed because

of the global political and economic education. i think it's gone. i don't think in terms of a new cold war. it puts us in a mind-set and a competition that exists. it will narrow the ability to understand what is happening in russia it's not a country we face during the cold war. all that deal with russia know we have contacts there, we know people, we know people that have been in the west. some of them we have been surprised by the rehabilitation to ukraine, where they are really you know happy about what happened. but it is not the same country and we should not use the same categories. interestingly, some of the interesting factors is china. we'll talk about china. steven, can we overdo this.

yes, in the headlines, there's manoeuvres in latvia. there's report of aircraftfullying over the soviet union, can we exaggerate that this is like the '60s. >> firstly we are not going into a cold war two. russia is not the soviet union, the warsaw pact belongs to n.a.t.o. it's a unique period. there's a stronger anti-american tone in moscow. vladimir putin has a narrative, which i think is wrong that n.a.t.o.'s goal is to hem in russia. i don't think it's correct but he believes it. he sees himself pushing back on

that, which will trigger the reactions that n.a.t.o. is taking which is enhancing conventional forces. you have countries, baltic stakes saying we are not sure will russia we are worried about russia in a way we weren't three years ago. >> you heard seven and dobe which take about how you wouldn't be quick to make parallels. when you hear russian voices talking about dangerous moves, provocative moves and they are moving pieces on the chest board at the same time in eastern ukraine, muscling the maldovians can you under play how dangerous the soviet union is? >> you have to accept the russian federation as it exists today. as steve and toby said it's not the same as the soviet union. we are not dealing with a

country with a strong ideology that is trying to expand around the world. we have a basic authoritarian system that is attracted to dempt countries in different -- different countries in different areas. we are not competing with a determined ideology. is it nationalism. >> there's - russian nationalism existed for centuries, it's not something that is new or that confronts the west the same way that soviet union communism did. russia, it's behavinglike a 19th century imperial power, and that is something we are understand both in terms of its ability to oppose us but we understand the craike directions -- contradictions, and its ability to mobilize forces. i don't think we are in the

situation as we were with the coldar. in terms of ideology and russia's position, and economic power. during the cold war it was believed that the soviet union was relatively equal to the united states in terms of economic power. that is not the case today. we have seen this consistently during the last 6-12 months. it doesn't have the economic power that can compete with the united states. the country was called a gas station with a nuclear arsenal. how important when an american policy maker looks at a map of world, should russia be in our thinking? >> when i hear statements like that i wish there were more people that knew more about russia and were able to talk about the country in a little

nuanced way, if you will. in a sense what russia is doing is not trying to go to a new cold war but trying to reject the post cold war world. that is different. >> it's a rehabilitation to the '90s. >> no, it's a reaction to the institutions the u.s. created in the post world war ii era, where we were dominance sh - the world bank the i.m.f. institutions around the world. and the russians are saying "wait a minute, it's not how we want to live", that's how we deal with the bricks the countries. what's when we speak of russia in a narrow way is we miss the opportunity to say it's the 21st century, what do we have to do differently to combat what russia is trying to do in the world. the other thing is that during the cold war everyone understood that there could be a nuclear

war. it really was a restraining factor. i worry that we were in unchartered territories. and the kind of thing we hear from vladimir putin "i have these weapons" these were people not in power, don't remember what it was about. and are feel a little powerful. remember russia is 21 years old. how many of you have a 21-year-old child and how many of you say calm down. >> stay with us when the history of this era is written, will we look back at missed opportunities in the 1990s, and the early years of this century, was the chilly east-west relationship reminiscent and inevitable after the unravelling of the warsaw pact and the soviet union itself. cold war ii - it's tonight's "inside story".

you're watching "inside story", i'm ray suarez. tonight we are looking at the realities of a second cold war. when the first one ended, when the clients elected leaders, when former republics of the u.s.s. r joined the european union in n.a.t.o. there was talk about what the world could be like without the distorting effects about rivalry. a russian president is cultivating new clients. cuba is reopening to the u.s. american forces supporting n.a.t.o. manoeuvres in latvia 180 miles from the border. the swedes are searching for subs in the harbours and russia's neighbours are complaining about accidental military flyovers was it naive to thing it wouldn't end up this way.

>> let's talk about when we look back in 20, 30 years at the '90s and the 00, will there be a series of break points where we could have done things differently and didn't. >> i don't think so. the first point is the n.a.t.o. and european union, it was demand driven. we have pollen and the central republic. being a member of the europe means being in the clubs. it was hard to say how could you say no. particularly when they met the requirements of the institution for political reform. i think there was recognise negotiation. president clinton understood that this would be difficult for russia, from the beginning, as the united states thought about encharging n.a.t.o., there was a tract to build a russian n.a.t.o. relationship and the goal was to make the relationship so cooperative that the russians would not care about enlargement, because they

would be seen as a security partner. in retrospect we overestimated the ability to use that n.a.t.o. russian link and probably underestimated how much antip thi there was in russia in the minds like vladimir putin, towards n.a.t.o. as an institution. >> in the '90s there was giddy talk about russia joining o.s.c.e. about some day being a member of the e.u. and i used to think "really?", but there were people talking about that because it looked like a possibility of such reform in russia. these things would not be unthinkable down the road. >> what is interesting is to look at the flipside of that and what institutions russia was able to join. it joined - signed a european convention of human rights. it was part of the court of

human rights and joined the w.t.o., and joined a lot of different institutions. what is interesting is that there was an attempt i think, to integrate russia and to a certain extent it succeeded, specially in terms of trade. russia signed tax treaties and agreements to try to entryingiate into global markets. it was a strategy. over all you can argue that russia was integrated. especially after russia joined the w.t.o. the problem was, and it's been hinted to is as soon as russia joined the institutions it want to rewrite the rules. what happened in reality was that russia didn't have the institutional power and learnt that it didn't like being intertwined, it rather would be

outside, so when you have the discussions on how to resolve the ukraine situation, russia would rather deal with angela merkel than the e.u. rather than the united states but it unths how to interact country to country, and it feels constrained by the institution, and them telling russia what needs to be done. there was a desire on russia's part to join the institution. i think a plau was russia didn't understand what it was drawing. >> doesn't play well with others on the report card or needs improvement. as we look at the deepening chill between russia and the u.s. we'll turn to the wildcards, with the rise of china, a new india, surging brazil and africa no longer burdened by proxy war. is the world too changed and complex to bam a stage where a cold war between russia and the u.s. liked the old rivalry.

cold war ii it's tonight's "inside story".

we are back with "inside story". i'm ray suarez. estonians, polls and checks are richer than russia. european tourists snorkelling and stay in echo hotels. the communist parties that raised eyebrows and concerns are vestigial. the world that emerged has been transformed by being freed from the logic of superpower rivalry, for those that see vladimir putin seizing crimea they are worried about the re-americanization of europe. is cold war ii not possible not

in the way cold war i worked. my guests join me. toby, you brought this up. brick us home, is the world too much changed to be the platform for that kind of rivalry? >> i think we may have a 2-power rivalry, my sense is russia will not be the second power. there'll be another country, which we know who that will be. which may be the second largest economy in the world for sure. russia's task is to figure ot where russia fits in where they can use their leverage resources, power, to make their voice heard. it's trying to do that forming a consciousness at home. what it means for russia to be great parents. during the cold war, now it's aiding nationalist partiesing right and left wing parties, the

aim is to address power by reducing the power of the european union. the name of the game is influence and pour. the world is changed and russia is adapting quickly in a way using soft power. tv stations they set up. the use of money around the world, the sail of arms which is something americans know well. the russians are now doing it we did it you can do t don't lecture us. we have to figure out another way to interact with them which is not going to lead us to conflict, but lead to better relations. the business community played a role here because trade with russia is miniscule. it's 1% of the trade. it can't be the balance with china. and the russians figured out that when they rattle the sabre.

when they create problems we pay attention. >> pay attention and run up against how ipp effectual we can be. the pressure that was exacted after the taking of crimea. didn't deter the russian government from its project in ukraine. >> i think you can argue that the united states and europe were slow to react. the reaction moved in stages. my guess is that if you'd asked people 15 months ago with the united states and european union be where they are today, where you have sanctions through the end of this year that are severe in terms of sanctions. my guess is that should be hard to do. we have seen the united states working with germany, angela merkel has been key, imposing stringent conditions. sanctions had damage in russia

they have not achieved the political goal which was to get a genuine change. if the west can sustain immunity and impose the sanction russia will continue to see damage on the economy. it might have an effect. at the end of the day vladimir putin probably worries about his ability to deliver to the russian public security and rising income. you go back 12-13 years ago, vladimir putin ensures growing economy, rising incomes and delivered between 2000 and 2008. this year the russian economy is likely to contract about 3%. the question becomes can vladimir putin deliver, and if people are uneasy does that begin to generate pressures on the kremlin. >> we have seen russia play a

role in international consultations over north korea's proliferation, trying to keep iran going nuclear. have they played a role in international talks in a way that shows them seeing themselves differently, as part of a community that shares interest. >> i think russia sees itself as a country that deserves a seat at the table and deserves report. russia can play a positive role and that is shown in notions and in -- negotiations, and in north korea. in pursuing the policy the issue really is to what extent russia can play a positive role and what is their role in this.

it was interesting when secretary of state john kerry went to sochi. i don't think he didn't openly say this but there was an implicit deal that if the situation in ukraine was resolved the united states was happy to work with russia on iran on syria, on libya and so forth, and, indeed russia has the stake in that because what john kerry was offering was to protect the nation state and re-establish borders in the region, and russia has been a beneficiary from the nation state. that has been detected. there was something on the table in sochi when secretary of state john kerry went there. great to see you, thanks for joining us for "inside story". i'll be back in a minute with a last word on long term and short term thinking and success and failure in today's russia, stay with us.

after the unravelling of the soviet union, it took until roughly 2010 for the economy to reach the g.d.p. it had in 1990. in the era of gosh chov the state owned everything worth owning. by 2010, a small group of money

me formal officials and party functionaries owned everything much the soviets and other never had a shot at grabbing their share of the goodies. they know for the residual power, they are poorer. they know they are poorer than argentines chileans and greeks. life expectancy for me is where it was in the early 1960, and has one of the highest suicide rates in the world. menacing georgia, embracing the luca sheppingo regime in the middle east. playing hide and seek with subs in the baltition. -- baltition. over the long haul if russia kapt deliver for its people, you have to wonder if it will be enough. especially if oil hoverers around 60km. i'm ray suarez and that's "inside story".^ below

i'm ray suarez, and that's "inside story". you u.n.e.s.c.o. world heritage site in danger. i.s.i.l. blows up shrines around the syrian city of palmyra. from al jazeera's headquarters in doha - coming up striking port workers cause chaos in calais. migrants seize on the opportunity hospitals and malls in pakistan struggle to cope as the death toll from a heatwave keeps rising boosting japan's company,