tv Inside Story Al Jazeera September 14, 2015 6:30pm-7:01pm EDT
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al jazeera.com. when senate democrats blocked a majority attempt to derail the iran nuclear deal, one part of the iranian story ended and another one began. the shiite majority is involved in iraq, syria, and lebanon riling and frightening its sunni neighbors and rivals throughout the region. iran shares some goals in conflict and continues to call
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the u.s. the great satan in others. what's iran's next move? it's the inside story. he inside story. welcome to our new time slot. week nights at 6:00:30 eastern time. tonight on the program, what's iran's next move? washington's relationship with the government in tehran has been so damaged for so long that it's a little hard to figure out what's changed by the long, hard bargaining that finally -- germany and iran. iran's population is huge. its oil reserves formidable. the regional power astrong.
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there's so much unfinished burning. -- everything is going to get fixed now. the nuke deal is a big step. republicans in the house held a vote late last week on a measure to aprof the iran deal. it was an effort to put themselves on the record against the agreement and put mrilt clay as a rule -- politically vulnerable democrats on the spot. 25 democrats sided with them but beyond politics the result means little. the day before, democrats in the senate blocked a vote on a measure that would have rejected the agreement. so barring a dramatic and unforeseen reversal, the house measure is going nowhere and the deal will stand. in a statement, president obama said we must implement and verify this deal so iran cannot
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create a nuclear weapon in pursuit of a safer and more hopeful world. the iran deal has been a political football and last week's vote came ahead of an intense lobbying effort. the white house launching a public and private campaign to sway waivering members of congress. while opponents of the deal including the pro israel lobbying group apac mounted a multimillion dollars effort to fuel congress. more comments from iran's supreme leader. the aitolla predicted the demise of israel saying they will not see the end of these 25 years. the israeli prime minister will meet the president in washington in early november. as mr. obama's spokesman said
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the u.s. has no illusions about iran's behavior >> our concerns have not waned and our determination to confront and work with the international community to try to confront iran's support for terrorism has only ramped up in if recent months and years. a new pugh poll shows public support for the deal is weakening. 33% of those asked approved of the agreement while 45% disapproved. now the approval rating has fallen 12 points. 49% disapprove. >> frozen assets being unfrozen in return for iran's agreement to cut back on refining nuclear materials. the tehran supported baghdad government is looking to iran for help in defeating isil while
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at the same time syria is backing al assad is backing his struggle to stay in damascus. is it just an isolated projacketed or the beginning of a new willingness to do business with other powers? we're joined by the policy director at the iranian american council, and a veteran reporter and author of the lonely war. one woman's account for the struggle for modern iran. and retired colonel patrick lang at the u.s. defense intelligence agency. jamal, can this deal between the permanent five members of the security council including the u.s., germany, the eu, and iran act as the predicate to
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something, anything? >> well, absolutely. it could. it depends on how the sides play their hand. what the deal did was it ended 35 years of of the ability to resolve issues. there's been an ebb and flow of outreach on both sides. we have not seen something that produced a final agreement and the fact that we have u.s. and iran signed on the dotted line for this agreement, it's an open door. the challenge now is does this bring new opportunities to engage on some of these other issues. the two sides know they have a lot in common and they have a lot of disagreements but the next few months and next few years are going to decide will this be tactical or strategic
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where they take the political capital generated in this. >> one vote for cautious optimism i think eye ran is a divided country between the moderates who represented the nuclear negotiators led by the president who is more moderate. and iranian hard liners and iran's supreme leader who has the final word on state matters. this is a huge compromise for the supreme leader to allow iranian moderates. and definitely he supported the talks to endorse the deal but on friday we heard him talk about the future and it was very clear. he said very clearly that the talks were only limited to the nuclear issue and iranians were not going to go beyond that. >> the whole late period before the deal was finally done.
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rhuhani would say one thing read as accommodating and the other would to anticipate then the supreme leader would come down hard and move just in the opposite direction. where does that leave you? >> i think that's the challenge now. the challenge is to see how far iran's supreme leader is going to allow the moderates to specifically the foreign manslaughter and the president to collaborate with their western counterparts, to implement the deal. because as you said, the deal was a huge thing. definite a victory for diplomacy. now we have a new era before us and that is how this deal is going to be implemented. you've been a student of this part of the world for a long time. what do you make of it all? >> i think we have to remember about it that he is in fact the real head of the government. in fact, the president of the islamic republic and his cabinet like that are all basically the
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creatures of it because if they had not been allowed to run for office and be elected, they would not have had any opportunity to do that. we have to respect the fact that the man still is a poll situation. he's not re-elected. he has to balance the various blocks of the country. the business groups and the crazies. the young people who want to have a wider life. other senior clerics. he's shown himself willing to see the limits of keeping the revolution alive and keeping the pressure down internally so they don't have an explosion like
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they almost had in 2009. >> what is that a public pantomine for the world? >> there are definitely real splits in iranian society. it's seen as a contest for his attention. someone like the king of morocco, the ruler of the faithful needs to balance all these things but if you look at the presidents he's allowed to take to power, he found he was too liberal. you cannot skirge people into paradise. i think you can see that they'll be willing to experiment as to
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what works and what does not. >> it can raise as many questions and warm feelings towards the united states and you see burning effigies and anti-american demonstrations. quickly contradicted or squashed by clerical leaders. are there different versions of the future imagined by iran's leaders? iran's next move, it's the inside story. inside story.
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>> watch these and other episodes online now at aljazeera.com/faultlines. iran's clerical leaders never miss an opportunity to denigrate and threaten israel. what's the difference? in world view, approach, tone, between the religious leaders, the revolutionary constitution in charm and the elected leaders
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and civil servants who lead the machinery of state. long time military intelligence officer pat lang is still with me along with others. we were talking about this earlier but it happens all the time. daylight between different parts of iranian society. and if in the united states you take some encouragement from that, you dismiss as naive. >> it is. that's true. you see the same dicotemy in iranian politics. in iran it's a situation different than the situation in the states. in iran, you're dealing with a supreme leader as a guardian of the revolution and certain values and one of them is being anti-u.s., anti-israel. and the majority of the people don't see that. they want to see their country changed. they want to see their country
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join the international community. and become part of a bigger global culture. and so that dichotemy becomes more illustrated. the ayatolla wants to retain spremcy in the system. satisfying their aspiration aspirations. >> they run on a consensus that makes people if they don't like power you don't have a result and i think he functions that way. he's accustomed to functioning with the system of consensus in islamic religious science. so i think he tries to balance
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that. but it doesn't mean he's intent on becoming a friend of the united states. he has a long snding feeling that really bad people are living under a bad system. but i think there's a possibility. first the ending with the europeans and informsment in the chinese maybe. to have people move more toward the west and there's the fact that we and iranians are in fact cobelligerents against the islamic state. the iranians have been very useful in iraq and syria along with their allies. rerefuse to -- we refuse to acknowledge that but i think we will. >> is that the foundation. we're on the same side in iraq. does that open the possibilities? >> yeah. of course it does. if we look at the last 15 years of u.s. involvement in the
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region, the united states took out iran's two biggest enemies in afghanistan and iraq. we happen to be on the same side as iran when it came to the first two part offense those invasions. we have not been able to engage since then because of various geo political and domestic political constraints. but this does present an opening and the fact that we now have this deal that can enable greater connections between not just at a diplomatic level but between iranians and the american people also presents openings because as we know, you know, the current president of iran was elected. it wasn't fair but it was a competition among the candidates and he was the last choice of the supreme leader but the iranian people didn't listen to people who said don't vote and
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that's what unstuck this standoff and enabled iran to actually enter these negotiations. >> if iran abides by its ashaunsashaun assurances in the nuclear proliferation deal, if the relentless anti-american rhetoric quiets down, the sanctions in place since the hostage crisis and the break in diplomatic relations will still be in place when an american flag flies over an embassy in havana, is it too soon to ask if a chance exists for a better relationship between iraq and iran. it's the inside story. he inside story.
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issues between the united states and iran after decades of hostility between the two governments as we look at the state of play between the two countries after the nuclear deal, we'll end this conversation about the prospects for if not normal relations at least more functional relations between the united states and what is after all a major player in west asia and the middle east. pat, what's doable? what's plausible if we can evolve a working relationship here? >> well, as we remember saying, i think we have to have a practical working relationship in the military sphere. that's necessary. and there are certain issues that have to be cleared up. there's the u.s. and israeli intelligence communities have been of the opinion of some time that iranians stopped work on a weapon in 203. that's an open issue. now that we have this deal and
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continuation of cooperation of that deal is dependent on what their real posture is, we should be able to clear that up. the answer to the question is whether or not they've really had an ongoing real weapons program for some time. it's a major feature of how americans think of the threat to israel and the united states. it has to be cleared up. >> important not only for the united states but for a main ally. >> absolutely. >> what's doable here? can we, the united states, end up at least with a functional relationship if not full diplomatic ties. >> what's achievable may be low level hanging fruit. maybe there's some, you know, track two and scientific engagement and cultural exchanges that we start out with to begin to warm the relationship and build this trust that apparently was not built for the nuclear deal but we're talking on the sidelines of nuclear negotiations.
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but there are also big things that need to be addressed. the situation in syria that has not been able to be resolved to a political solution in no small part because iran has not been allowed to be at the table because the united states' allies in saudi arabia doesn't want iran to be part of those talks. we should now move beyond that and say we're prepared and willing to engage with iran on all issues of interest to us regardless of what our allies are saying we can and cannot do. >> it doesn't seem like the domestic situation will allow for that though. if president obama moves towa s towards -- he's struck done. >> american that might be possible. but i think he's capable of doing that starting with
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collaborating with with iran and the foreign minute city and demanding that they abide by their international obligations to implement the deal now and start collaborating on issues over syria, other issues in the region. >> but doesn't american demand have any bearing on whether or not iran plays by the rules? >> iranians can do a lot in these countries. first of all, they're performing their part of the deal regarding the nuclear issue. that's going to abolish some of the mistrust that exists towards iranians and secondly they're also seeking their -- also strategic threat because they're so close to iranian borders now. make sure that the isis is pushed back and also in in yemen
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iran can play a role. iran's forfor the houthi's is becoming quite dangerous now so there are other areas that they can collaborate and this is something that the majority of iranian people have been hoping that the nuclear talks would lead to. pat lang mentioned syria. and yemen. those are places where it would be irreconcilable. >> i don't think that's true because our major opponent in the middle east and maybe eventually in the world is not iran. it's or any group of shiite. it's really in my opinion the sun sunni jihadi movements and they continue to receive sub terrainen support from people in
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the guntersville. preponderate obama has shown a -- it's very clear that being more cooperative with iran these places would be our interest. author of the lonely war, and jamal abdi. thanks to you all for joining us on today's program. at our new time. i'll be back in a minute with a final thought on pending persian problems. stay with us. it's inside story. nside story.
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