>> we're here to fully get into the nuances of everything that's going on, not just in this country, but around the world. getting the news from the people who are affected. >> people need to demand reform... >> ali velshi on target. ♪ ♪ >> it wasn't what you'd call a big election day. a governor's race, a ballot measures, a handful of elections but overall not a bad night for the republican party. forecast for a tuft 2016 for the gop. thinking too soon, or is the electorate such an odd animal that it can't tell you much about a election year? a dress rehearsal for 2016.

it's the "inside story." >> welcome to "inside story." i'm ray suarez. a republican governor will take office in kentucky after a come from behind victory. money poured into virginia to help flip the state senate in favor of democratic governor terry mcaw mcauliffe and the democrats couldn't pull it ooff. transgender rights the same in houston. someone piped up to suggest that maybe the people who were predicting a very bad year for republicans in 2016 could be wrong. that there are plenty of strengths to build on, that the gop brings considerable strengths to the game even when demographics seem not to be working in its favor. for a look-back at tuesday's

results we'll begin with al jazeera's david schuster. >> for just the second time in 40 years, kentucky will have a republican governor. >> what an extraordinary night this is! >> reporter: tea party favorite and political outsider matt devin defeated conway. >> tonight is not a result we expected but one we respect. a couple of minutes ago i placed a call to governor elect bevin and wished him well. >> befn lost to republican senator mcilroy last year in a gop primary race but expectations that bevin would seem too extreme didn't pan out. full

on his promise to dismantle kynect, expanded medicaid and covers 500,000 people. in virginia, the body blow came to democratic governor terry mcauliffe. even though he wasn't on the ballot, mcauliffe helped, but republicans won every race. in houston, texas, voters voted to roll back an antidiscrimination ordinance. and in ohio, growing rights to a handful of wealthy investors and even in san francisco, the sheriff who defended the city's policies, lost badly, ross mirkarimi received strong criticism after he released a defendant from jail whom the

officials sought to deport, was accused of shooting and killing a woman after his release. highlighting the case gave the issue national prominence. >> the illegals come in and the illegals killed their children. >> great sign for republicans in general and for eanlt establishmen antiestablishment candidates like donald trump. the outsiders are growing. >> crown jewel in the crown of america, we truly are. >> david schuster, al jazeera. >> dress rehearsal for 2016. we are looking ahead to republican prospects for next year by looking back at an interesting agriculture bag of off year results. look back at what republicans can and cannot take back from last tuesday , doug

thornel, skb knickerbocker. what di caught your eye most do? >> they did pick up three supreme court seats, they did better than that piece would suggest in virginia on gun issues, and i think the crown jewel obviously was kentucky. you would have liked to have had that, but that is also a state that president obama lost by 23 points so i don't think it reflects the battle ground states that republicans and democrats will be competing in 2016. >> we'll dig into that later, garanz. >> what we are seeing is maybe the trans-rights movement is a couple of decades behind on where public opinion is on transrights than where it is on

gay rights in eligible. thereligible -- general. there has been a backlash -- >> and houston has a gay mayor. >> houston has a gay mayor, out-lesbian. this is a moment where we're seeing a new vulnerability in that civil rights agenda. and a potential for a successful backlash. >> rich. >> i think that was a pretty narrow question on the ballot about bathrooms. i think you're drawing too much out of that. i think the gay rights movement is doing just fine. it's moving ahead and never going back which is okay with me. my thing about tuesday is, i don't think it's a stand-alone although your description of how well the democrats did, that was brilliant. [ laughter ] >> it goes all the way back to 2010 and it's a continuation of that, every off-year even in the presidential year republicans

didn't get wiped out but doing many, manmuch, much better. karen timulty wrote a tweet, we're about to find out if this is an obama coalition or a new democrat coalition. i think if tuesday told us anything in terms of the fact that democrats didn't turn out again it may have been a two-term or two-time obama coalition instead of a different coalition. >> going to kentucky this is a state that has had very few republican governors over the last two generations and successfully one of the few places in a red state where obama was successfully rolled out, enjoyed a large number of sign-ups, how come a democrat couldn't hold on there? >> it's a good question. i mean look, ultimately the turnout was very low, 30%. and that's a sign for democrats that they need a better message for african americans and other

parts of the obama coalition, millennial voters, women. whatever worked in kentucky it didn't work for democrats. this is a very red state. i understand the history around the governor's house but if you look at other aspects of the government, it's very red. now there are some -- there are two bright, shining moments in kentucky. you had two democrats win statewide. grimes and the governor's son actually won statewide. it wasn't a complete wipeout. look, conway should have won that race. looking at him an bevin, he was a flawed democrat and could motivate his base. >> i want to spend two minutes before the break. if rich he goes ahead with his promise to dismantle the affordable care act in kentucky is that in fact a risky strategy one that could back fire on republicans?

>> that would back fire on kasich. he did the same thing, this is what i think about obamacare, it is there. i think what republicans have to do now is say okay, boik is with us -- obamacare is with us, we're not going to dismantle the entire system, and what the republicans need to do is find out how to make it more efficient so that more people want to sign up for it and the people who have other health insurance see it less of a threat. >> that's not what bevins wrap on. >> i think it's risky to say you're going to take away a owner issue that people already have. >> it's going to be a test for national party too. if it's going to back fire it's going to raise a lot of doubts about their

message -- >> obamacare doesn't enjoy 70% enthusiasm. it's a net negative among the population as a whole. not around washington, d.c. or around the stable but i don't think anyone is going to run on expanding obamacare, that's not going to happen. >> that may be true but the repeal message may not be that potent either. most people will want to make fixes to it. >> i'm not sure it's that close. >> overwhelming majority of the people don't want to repeal the law anymore. >> stay with us. democrats are helping to pull back some of the marginal seats they lost in blow-outs in 2010 and 2014 in the house. what strengths do republicans have to stress, to leverage, to limit their losses on the hill and take back the white house and what's working against them? dress rehearsal for 2016. it's tonight's "inside story."

>> tough that the country gave up on me. >> look at the trauma... every day is torture. >> this is our home. >> nobody should have to live like this. >> we made a promise to these heroes... this is one promise americans need to keep.

>> our american story is written everyday. it's not always pretty, but it's real... and we show you like no-one else can. this is our american story. this is america tonight. >> you're watching "inside story." i'm ray suarez. we're sifting through the results from tuesday's off-year elections and using them as a way to look ahead to the primary season and next year's

elections, garanci franky ruta, and others are with me. all they have to do is hold i questions in enough places and they can squeak through. what's working for them and against them? >> for holding the sun up, the fact that they haven't yet now, obviously it creates a complication that there's so many senators running for white house right now and going out there with messages that are perhaps not senatorial messages, motivate certain parts of the base, messages that are designed to really, when states are not necessarily where people are running. so i think that will be really interesting where people are there. republican side that will have electoral places down the road is the incredible alienation of

hispanics, stance against immigrants from mexico and against bath ways to citizenship, i think that debate is happening very, very loudly and people are not going to forget that debate. >> in states where that wouldn't matter, nevada obviously. >> and florida. marco rubio is vacating his seat to run for president. but it also creates a national narrative -- >> it doesn't make any difference, a republican running for president or governor or anything else in california, doesn't make any difference, means you're going to lose by 23 points or 25 points, you're right about florida and nevada that's a big deal. >> isn't it a problem for general? to have to act like this stuff didn't happen once there's a nominee, let's say for argument's sake it's not donald trump, there's still going to be a trump penumbra isn't there? >> i think the wish as they

whistle past the graveyard for democrats nationally is the immigration issue for trump will stick to whoever the republican nominee is. but something we were talking about earlier i'd go back to and that is that it -- we'll see what the turnout, we'll see whether hillary clinton assuming she's the nominee and unless the word indictment attaches to her she will be, we'll see whether or not being the first woman candidate is enough to bring out hispanics, bring out black, especially male hispanics and male black men, may or may not be, they might be, but i think that's really the other side of that equation is what's the draw on the democratic side without barack obama on the ballot? >> if there's a strong showing for whoever the eventually nominee is -- eventual nominee is? does that put senate seats in place that might otherwise not

be or might hang by a thread like north carolina like wisconsin which is up next year? >> well the dscc, the campaign arm for senate democrats have done a vet good job of recruiting pretty strong candidates. i think look when you are an advantage. when you look at wisconsin, if you look at new hampshire, if you look at florida, if you look at nevada there are a lot of places where democrats got strong senate recruits. and it's going to help if the nominee is obviously strong because it's going to help with turnout. it's going to help with the organization on the ground because the dnc, the nominee will be funding turnout operations and that will have a ripple effect on the democrat who is running for the senate seat. i think the dncc has got to be proud of the turnout they've had so far, they've got good candidates.

>> larry savage actually wrote a couple of weeks ago, he wrote a map and he said on the map it had seats that were held by democrats, incumbents that aren't up for reelection, those that are that are safeties, switchers like illinois that are likely to go democrat. but you add all those up on the democratic side you get to 47. if you add all those up on the republican side according to sabato you duet to 50 and there are three he says tossups, two weeks ago, nevada florida and new hampshire. and so according to him, democrats have to run the table on their side, can't make any mistakes and have to pick up all three of the tossups. which is not by any stretch impossible and -- >> hold on. i'll just close this segment by noting republicans are playing defense in states that the president won pretty handily. so i'll take a look at sabado's numbers, i'm interested in seeing them. guests stay with us.

when we come back, i want to ask the panel about assumptions. both parties have them, both parties will lean on them heavily, when making their predictions for next year. what assumptions may be too optimistic, based on old data or group think, that won't survive the heat of public utility battle? the dress rehearsal for 2016 continues, it's the "inside story."

♪ ♪ ♪ >> welcome back to "inside story." i'm ray suarez. dress rehearsal for 2016 this time on the program. doug thornel rich galn and larence. what would you tell them about their assumptions, their cherished notion is their operating theories on the coming race, or their thoughts that it

simply ain't so? rich galen? >> generals are always fighting the last war, nfl coaches are always coaching the last season and political people are fighting the last election. so everybody's so tightly focused on big data on turnout on all the g ismology, let's get a theory that works across a broad swath -- donald trump, if he is 26%, 26% of 26% of voters who said they aring republicans, that's 6% of the electorate. that's what i would do. i'd say forget about all of that other stuff. let the technicians do that. let's worry about the other stuff. >> garance. >> a lot of attention to passion and people who are very highly motivated and inspiring people

to be very aggressive in the primary cycles. we are seeing it on the democratic side, with sanders, on the republican side with donald trump many be carson. trump, with kansa carson. >> do they distract you, saying this is what works or are they really not telling you much because they as rick suggests represents so few number of people? >> it suggests something on the democratic side especially with obama people learned to trust their sningtd t instinct to go e and passion but there's going to be a moment when people are going to look for a candidate who has a more experienced view, more about campaigning.

and clinton, i don't know that is going to be the strategy in the end. they may want to say it's the strategy and she's going to do it but they're going to be motivating them by who the opponent is. it's going to be a big difference who is inspiring people and motivating them in the end. >> doug, mythology sometimes gets in the way of motivating the campaign? >> there's been imi emphasis on super-pacs. you saw scott walker at $30 million in his super-pac and he's out of the race. jeb bush's super-pac, and i think it's going to keep people alive longer than they probably typically would in the past but there is no substitute for a good campaign that's frnd, that has -- that's financed that has staff on the ground.

when i worked for the gore campaign in 2000 at this exact moment we had 70, 75 staffers in iowa and 15 offices. that tells me the investment in field and organizing which is so important in early states, south carolina, iowa and new hampshire, i feel like especially in the primary republicans have looked bas past that and they depended too much on the superpacs. >> i say the super-pacs are not the palliative that we thought they would be. to this minute nothing counts more exactly what you're saying as hard money, the money that keeps the lights on, phones going, keeps the kids in the rental cars with the phones. >> larance let me close by asking you whether democrats for their part are loving this demographics story so much that they're forgetting that they have to actually get people to

the polls. if i read another story about how many latinos there are i think i'm going to scream, throw either the newspaper or myself out the window. >> do we get to vote? >> there is an emerging democratic majority that took some time to emerge and people can change their views as well over time. or not come to the polls. you're right. it's something for people to not take for granted that you have to motivate people. >> yeah, i was just going to say i don't think the democrats are, they've, as far as latinas go and african americans go, i think -- >> but the two last mid term blowouts were partially thanks to people who showed up in the big years and didn't show up in the little years. >> absolutely. look i think we're going to see over the next four or six years i think republicans are going to do well in mid terms. the map benefits them and democrats do well in general.

but they have to make that investment in message and generation to turn out, or you'll have what happened in kentucky and other places. >> you look at the under-card. the number of house and senate seats, 913 at least. >> that makes a difference in districting. >> we have 33 governors -- >> that goes to the democrats ongoing problem organize at the state level, the democrats have become a national party and when there's a national election, they are positioned to do well. but it's -- we're a nation of states. >> i'm going to have to stop it there. terrific conversation. i want to thank my guests, doug thornel. garanci ru uta and rich galen. i will be back with a final thought on reading too much into elections. stay with us, it's "inside story." send us your thoughts on twitter, @ajinsidestoryam, or

get in touch @raysuareznews. give us your thoughts for 2016, we'll love to hear from you.

>> those rosy scenarios about a dominant democratic future they are a little premature or at best too optimistic about demography. favors democrats is right.

but the future giant latinos voted levels too low to be decisive in many areas and the vote is very heavily concentrated in places where democrats already do well. california, new york, illinois. to make a big difference black voters, asian voters, latino voters all have to show up in off-years, show up in mid terms. vote heavily not just in the marquee races but down-ballot where control of state legislatures livers. the same legislatures that dra w coongal districts that current magnify getting born and makes political analysts salivate and no political power stays from staying home. i'm ray suarez and that's the "inside story." the news continues right now.

after a bloody civil war and 60 years of mistrust, the leaders of china and ty wan are now shaking hands for the first time. hello i'm jane dutton in doha. also on the program, russia suspends all flights to egypt after a bomb is believed to have caused saturday's